Let's say GRRM's plan is still for Jaime to take the throne? How?

[Hippocras]

As some of you know in GRRM's original plan that got leaked, Jaime was going to at some point become King.

Since then the books have changed a lot, and it is by no means certain that Jamie becoming King, however briefly, is still part of the plan. He has been caught staring at and sitting in the throne though. So I would find it entertaining to have a bit of a hive think (creative, collaborative speculation) on Jamie's potential path(s) to Kingship from where we are now in the books.

This is my scenario:

1. Tommen and Myrcella die. But the Lannisters and Tyrells still hold King's Landing.

2a. The Tyrells are pretty angry with Cersei. Aegon is looking to make alliances and Highgarden is ready to jump...but something (maybe Dorne rivalry? Maybe Euron's dangerous incursion into their territory?) makes them still willing to try to make the Lannister alliance work.

2b. Or....Aegon also dies, leaving a dearth of options for the Tyrells and Euron posing a serious threat.

3. Margery marries Jaime to remake the Tyrell/Lannister alliance. Because this alliance still holds King's Landing, this is the couple that can hold it together and Jamie simply takes the throne with Marge at his side in a bid to prevent the complete destruction of his family and defend the city from Aegon and/or Euron.

 

This path supposes that Marge in the end really is the YMBQ, and by taking everything from Cersei, that includes truly taking Jaime and Cersei's dream of holding power with him at her side as well. Other ideas anyone?

[Lord Varys]

Nope. No chance for that. I think that idea already died during the writing process of AGoT. It might have as early as the introduction of Littlefinger and Varys, not to mention the most likely much later gestation of characters like Stannis and Renly (neither of those characters was even mentioned in the original outline).

The original outline and the first chapters of the books set up the Lannisters as the evil usurping guys, giving the impression that royal house of Baratheon doesn't have any levies, vassals, and friends of its own. George most likely imagined Robert Baratheon originally as an isolated monarch with pretty much no friends and allies aside from Ned, completely surrounded by Lannisters.

Eventually he introduced Stannis and Renly but that had little effect on the situation at court. The Lannisters are still everywhere, and there are no Stormlord friends of Robert hanging out at court, nor is Renly having a prominent role in the first book.

If the plot had not expanded the way it did Jaime most likely would have been some sort of amalgamation of Littlefinger and himself. An ambitious and scheming Kingsguard who was very good at arms, too, developing in the ultimate adversary for Daenerys during her conquest of Westeros (which would have fit nicely with the whole revenge part of Dany's story - she could actually have avenged her father by killing Jaime is such a scenario).

But the story is long beyond that. Jaime wouldn't accept the throne under any circumstances, and he most certainly isn't going to marry anyone in his entire life. Perhaps he'll have an affair with Brienne, but that's pretty much it.

[Hippocras]

I see what you are saying, but still think a lot of the changes may be more about adding complexity and nuance than changing outcomes. The new version is far less good versus evil, but may still come down to the same two rival families, who are neither Targaryens nor Baratheons, fighting it out and then eventually mending relations with marriage.

When I read the books, this is far from the most likely path I see, but it remains both possible and interesting. Everyone is so focused on Targaryens and their closest relatives and the "right" to the throne that entails. I think it is intriguing to think that in the end that may not matter in the slightest.

So, for pure entertainment, instead of debating if it is possible or impossible, let's speculate on scenarios.

 

I have already provided a scenario that includes Jaime's rationale for becoming King. In the books we are already seeing his transition to being more of a strategic thinker via his actions in the Riverlands. I think it is not far-fetched at all to propose that he would become king if him doing so was the only way to prevent the crumbling of the Lannister Tyrell alliance and thus the loss of King's Landing and more to Euron and/or Aegon.

[Lord Varys]

Well, he wants to destroy the alliance between Lannisters and Tyrells himself by revealing the truth about the parentage of his children. He is not going to stabilize things, he is going to destroy them (assuming he'll be able to make free decisions in the foreseeable future).

The outline wouldn't have been revealed if it still contained spoilers to the novels. The stuff that might still happen was the stuff that was blacked out in the end.

Jaime becoming king is even more unlikely than Arya and Jon ever having a sexual relationship. Or Tyrion falling in love with Arya...

[Hippocras]

1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, he wants to destroy the alliance between Lannisters and Tyrells himself by revealing the truth about the parentage of his children. He is not going to stabilize things, he is going to destroy them (assuming he'll be able to make free decisions in the foreseeable future).

The outline wouldn't have been revealed if it still contained spoilers to the novels. The stuff that might still happen was the stuff that was blacked out in the end.

Jaime becoming king is even more unlikely than Arya and Jon ever having a sexual relationship. Or Tyrion falling in love with Arya...

I think everyone knows. And once the kids are dead, they will not be the key to power in King's Landing anyway. If they are dead, but the Tyrells and Lannisters still hold the capital, and they are desperate to continue to hold it, the alliance gains new importance and is no longer dependent on the supposed legitimacy of Tommen and Myrcella.

In that case the only thing that matters is hegemony. Ie...who holds power or is seen to hold it.

[Lord Varys]

Just now, Hippocras said:

I think everyone knows. And once the kids are dead, they will not be the key to power in King's Landing anyway. If they are dead, but the Tyrells and Lannisters still hold the capital, and they are desperate to continue to hold it, the alliance gains new importance and is no longer dependent on the supposed legitimacy of Tommen and Myrcella.

In that case the only thing that matters is hegemony. Ie...who holds power or is seen to hold it.

If such a thing happens, Mace Tyrell can sit on the Iron Throne himself. He certainly doesn't need Jaime for that. Marrying Cersei - the Queen Dowager - to Willas could also help. She at least was connected to House Baratheon by marriage. Jaime no longer care about his house or power.

The Realm certainly wouldn't put up with any such attempt, though. Power has to be legitimized, too, brute force isn't enough, and the Lannisters and Tyrells won't have enough power to hold the throne. Even if Aegon died, the Golden Company and Dorne are still out there, and Euron is, too. More importantly, the Riverlands are obviously preparing to shake of the Lannister shackles, effectively cutting KL off from support from the West.

As to Tommen/Myrcella: People only know what Stannis claims. Stannis is both unpopular and a guy who intends to ascend the throne over the corpses of three young children. His word is obviously easily dismissed. The Tyrells certainly do not publicly believe that Cersei's children are Jaime's (else they wouldn't have married Margaery to Joffrey and Tommen). But once Jaime publicly recognizes Cersei's children as his pretty much no one will be able to look the other way, even if they think that would be politically convenient. Just as nobody would have had Jaime announced his intention to marry the widowed Cersei.

[Hippocras]

1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

If such a thing happens, Mace Tyrell can sit on the Iron Throne himself. He certainly doesn't need Jaime for that. Marrying Cersei - the Queen Dowager - to Willas could also help. She at least was connected to House Baratheon by marriage. Jaime no longer care about his house or power.

The Realm certainly wouldn't put up with any such attempt, though. Power has to be legitimized, too, brute force isn't enough, and the Lannisters and Tyrells won't have enough power to hold the throne. Even if Aegon died, the Golden Company and Dorne are still out there, and Euron is, too. More importantly, the Riverlands are obviously preparing to shake of the Lannister shackles, effectively cutting KL off from support from the West.

As to Tommen/Myrcella: People only know what Stannis claims. Stannis is both unpopular and a guy who intends to ascend the throne over the corpses of three young children. His word is obviously easily dismissed. The Tyrells certainly do not publicly believe that Cersei's children are Jaime's (else they wouldn't have married Margaery to Joffrey and Tommen). But once Jaime publicly recognizes Cersei's children as his pretty much no one will be able to look the other way, even if they think that would be politically convenient. Just as nobody would have had Jaime announced his intention to marry the widowed Cersei.

I think people do actually believe Stannis, as in they do actually know that Tommen (and Myrcella) is illegitimate, they simply do not care because they do not want Stannis to be their King. They may not love the Lannisters, but they have no proof and are not willing to fight on Stannis's behalf. It would be different if Stannis held the throne, but he does not, so again, hegemony wins the day.

I agree power needs legitimacy to be maintained, and I agree many regions, including the Riverlands are ready to revolt. But Euron is a serious problem. Jaime as King may not be rooted in any dynasty, but people would still see it as preferable to Euron. Aegon would be be different but he might not be around for long. And Dorne might suffer with him if they side with him: bringing out their dragons too early.

Basically if Tommen and Myrcella are both dead, the Lannisters and Tyrells will have a choice: simply hand over power to some other contender, none of whom would reward them for it, or cling to power by seizing it in their own name. So as for who would actually sit the Throne in this case, King Mace has an interesting ring no doubt, but it wouldn't work because he can't seal the alliance. Willas and Cersei you say? There is no way that after everything Cersei has done, the Tyrells would agree to that match or to giving Cersei any power. She would be completely cut out of any agreement.

[Regular John Umber]

 This is an interesting topic, particularly with regards to the line of succession. If Tommen, Myrcella, Cersei, Stannis (although he probably doesn't need to die), and Maergery all die, to whom does the throne go? The King's line is dead, the King's father's line is dead, does it go to the King's grandfather's line? So Jaime would be next.

 

 

[Hippocras]

5 minutes ago, Regular John Umber said:

 This is an interesting topic, particularly with regards to the line of succession. If Tommen, Myrcella, Cersei, Stannis (although he probably doesn't need to die), and Maergery all die, to whom does the throne go? The King's line is dead, the King's father's line is dead, does it go to the King's grandfather's line? So Jaime would be next.

 

 

I am pretty sure King Jamie could only happen with Margery alive for him to marry. Without her, he can't hold the alliance together and would never become King.

[Regular John Umber]

Just now, Hippocras said:

I am pretty sure King Jamie could only happen with Margery alive for him to marry. Without her, he can't hold the alliance together and would never become King.

 

 Absolutely, it would be difficult to have it happen, but my point is that he may actually be the 'rightful' king at some point in the series, if the right people die (most of whom seem foreshadowed to die).

[Hippocras]

19 minutes ago, Regular John Umber said:

 

 Absolutely, it would be difficult to have it happen, but my point is that he may actually be the 'rightful' king at some point in the series, if the right people die (most of whom seem foreshadowed to die).

Personally I think one of the main points of Stannis as a character was to show us that "rightful" in such power games means diddley squat.

Noone cares about the "right" to the Throne if it means fighting when they don't need to or going against the interests of their families. If they did care, they would have rallied behind Stannis.

I really don't think Jamie would ever be King because it is his right in any way. He would be King because there is a power vacuum, a Throne that needs to be siezed, and two families (Lannister and Tyrell) in danger of annihilation if he does not do it.

[Amris]

Since Jaime does not seem to have any ambition for attaining a position of power, I think the only way for him to end up on the throne might be if all other real contenders were dead and he had to take it out of duty.

Somewhat like he ended sitting on it last time around: He had to kill Aerys in order to prevent worse. He didn't do it out of ambition. Just because it had to be done and there was no one else to do it.

And then the throne was empty.

Now - this time around - in case no Dany, no Jon, no Tyrion and no one else around any longer who would be able to hold things together or mend the realm: I think Jaime's sense of duty might just get him to take the task upon himself. Especially if supported/nudged by Brienne.

But as long as someone - anyone - else is there to do the job: No.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Lord Varys]

Jaime has neither a legal claim nor necessarily the support of the Lannisters or the West. He no longer has a claim to Casterly Rock, after all, and should Cersei's children (and she) the Lannister cousins won't necessarily look to the cripple for help, assuming he is still alive by that point.

If Myrcella dies, the next legal heir to the throne is unknown. Since the Baratheon claim comes from Princess Rhaelle Targaryen and Aegon V, one assumes that next in line would be closest Targaryen relative through the female line if we ignore Stannis/Shireen and Aegon/Daenerys for a moment. That could very well be Lord Selwyn Tarth. Whether is going to make a claim is completely unknown. The Tyrells could certainly consider such a thing, preferring him to any 'Lannister pretender'. But then, we know that Tarth has been taken by the Golden Company.

Any Baratheon cousins - who wouldn't have any claims to the Iron Throne if they aren't descended from Ormund Baratheon and Princess Rhaelle (and their descendants are only Steffon, Robert, Stannis, Shireen, and Renly) but could still try to make claims based of their kinship to Robert - should be looked for in the Stormlands. But then, those will all also have to team up with Aegon for the time being. Should Aegon die, Selwyn Tarth and Brienne easily could become figureheads of their campaign, challenging whatever claimant the Tyrells might want to install.

And, you know, since Jaime actually likes Brienne he most likely would rather support her or Selwyn's claim rather than seize the throne for himself.

3 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

Noone cares about the "right" to the Throne if it means fighting when they don't need to or going against the interests of their families. If they did care, they would have rallied behind Stannis.

I really don't think Jamie would ever be King because it is his right in any way. He would be King because there is a power vacuum, a Throne that needs to be siezed, and two families (Lannister and Tyrell) in danger of annihilation if he does not do it.

The first things there is just blatantly wrong. There are people who care about the legality of claims, and who only support people they think should rule because the throne is theirs by right. They are not necessarily in the majority, though. We don't really know whether Robert had so many supporters during the Rebellion because of his legal claim or because of his charisma, but the best guess is his success was due to the combination of both.

A man like Stannis could never have led a rebellion against Aerys II simply because he lacked the charisma and the personality to do such a thing. And later nobody cares about the legality of his claims because pretty much nobody likes him and many people fear or despise him (especially the Tyrells and other Lords of the Reach). If you feel threatened by the rise of king or his policy you don't support him and/or you rebel against him. Daeron II and Aegon V can tell you stories about that, too.

If Tommen and Myrcella die, the time of the Lannisters in the sun is over. The Tyrells have no reason to hand Jaime or any Lannister any power nor have they any reason to think they need the Lannisters anymore. A King Mace could easily think that he is more acceptable to the Starks, Tullys, Arryns, and Stormlords than a Lannister king. After all, the Tyrells didn't war against any of those regions directly. Jaime, on the other hand, tried to murder Brandon Stark and is hated as the Kingslayer throughout the entire Realm.

And in Jaime's mind there should always be some guy in his mind who would make a better king than he. He would send this guy in first before he would take the throne. Not to mention that no one would ever ask him to become king in the first place. Certainly not the Tyrells. They would first install either Mace or Margaery as the ruling monarch.

Not to mention that the chances that Margaery gets out of her present situation unscathed/alive are very low. For Jaime to become king he would have to return in time to KL to be in an influential position in the right time, but Tommen, Myrcella, and Margaery could easily all die long before that happens.

[A spoon of knife and fork]

1 hour ago, Regular John Umber said:

 This is an interesting topic, particularly with regards to the line of succession. If Tommen, Myrcella, Cersei, Stannis (although he probably doesn't need to die), and Maergery all die, to whom does the throne go? The King's line is dead, the King's father's line is dead, does it go to the King's grandfather's line? So Jaime would be next.

 

Succession does not generally go backwards.  If you're the family that married in to royalty, you don't suddenly all get claims.  

The potential candidates include anyone actually (or officially) descended from or related to a king.  

So, Roberts bastards, cousins, etc...  I'm not sure we know who that might be. 

Meanwhile others will prefer to go back to Targaryen relatives.  Apparently the Tarths recently had the Targs marry in.  And there are some others too.

So how about this.  Brienne inherits the IT from her Targ greatgrandmother or whoever, and Jaime marries her.  Bam, King Jaime!   seriously though... Not gonna happen.

[HairGrowsBack]

1 minute ago, A spoon of knife and fork said:

Succession does not generally go backwards.  If you're the family that married in to royalty, you don't suddenly all get claims.  

The potential candidates include anyone actually descended from or related to a king.  

So, Roberts bastards, cousins, etc...  I'm not sure we know who that might be. 

Meanwhile others will prefer to go back to Targaryen relatives.  Apparently the Tarths recently had the Targs marry in.  And there are some others too.

So how about this.  Brienne inherits the IT from her Targ greatgrandmother or whoever, and Jaime marries her.  Bam, King Jaime!   seriously though... Not gonna happen.

Damn, I'd read that 

 

[A spoon of knife and fork]

2 minutes ago, HairGrowsBack said:

Damn, I'd read that 

Well GRRM did say it's someone we wouldn't expect...  I don't think anyone expects Brienne lol.

[purple-eyes]

Maybe Jaime can be king by being bastard of aerys and being legitimized by someone. 

Then he has a strong claim. 

[Regular John Umber]

8 minutes ago, purple-eyes said:

Maybe Jaime can be king by being bastard of aerys and being legitimized by someone. 

Then he has a strong claim. 

 Legitimized by the king so he can be king?

 

20 minutes ago, A spoon of knife and fork said:

Succession does not generally go backwards.  If you're the family that married in to royalty, you don't suddenly all get claims.  

The potential candidates include anyone actually (or officially) descended from or related to a king.  

So, Roberts bastards, cousins, etc...  I'm not sure we know who that might be. 

Meanwhile others will prefer to go back to Targaryen relatives.  Apparently the Tarths recently had the Targs marry in.  And there are some others too.

So how about this.  Brienne inherits the IT from her Targ greatgrandmother or whoever, and Jaime marries her.  Bam, King Jaime!   seriously though... Not gonna happen.

 

 Point being it's a massive mess. I mean, who doesn't have some Targaryen blood? Then there's the Baratheon bastards, and the Lannister claim, and the Tyrell claim (both through the queen/queen mother). Tommen dying will unleash chaos. 

[purple-eyes]

1 minute ago, Regular John Umber said:

 Legitimized by the king so he can be king?

 

 

 Point being it's a massive mess. I mean, who doesn't have some Targaryen blood? Then there's the Baratheon bastards, and the Lannister claim, and the Tyrell claim (both through the queen/queen mother). Tommen dying will unleash chaos. 

If tommen is dying, then he may want to set up his real daddy to be king? 

[Hippocras]

13 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Jaime has neither a legal claim nor necessarily the support of the Lannisters or the West. He no longer has a claim to Casterly Rock, after all, and should Cersei's children (and she) the Lannister cousins won't necessarily look to the cripple for help, assuming he is still alive by that point.

If Myrcella dies, the next legal heir to the throne is unknown. Since the Baratheon claim comes from Princess Rhaelle Targaryen and Aegon V, one assumes that next in line would be closest Targaryen relative through the female line if we ignore Stannis/Shireen and Aegon/Daenerys for a moment. That could very well be Lord Selwyn Tarth. Whether is going to make a claim is completely unknown. The Tyrells could certainly consider such a thing, preferring him to any 'Lannister pretender'. But then, we know that Tarth has been taken by the Golden Company.

Any Baratheon cousins - who wouldn't have any claims to the Iron Throne if they aren't descended from Ormund Baratheon and Princess Rhaelle (and their descendants are only Steffon, Robert, Stannis, Shireen, and Renly) but could still try to make claims based of their kinship to Robert - should be looked for in the Stormlands. But then, those will all also have to team up with Aegon for the time being. Should Aegon die, Selwyn Tarth and Brienne easily could become figureheads of their campaign, challenging whatever claimant the Tyrells might want to install.

And, you know, since Jaime actually likes Brienne he most likely would rather support her or Selwyn's claim rather than seize the throne for himself.

The first things there is just blatantly wrong. There are people who care about the legality of claims, and who only support people they think should rule because the throne is theirs by right. They are not necessarily in the majority, though. We don't really know whether Robert had so many supporters during the Rebellion because of his legal claim or because of his charisma, but the best guess is his success was due to the combination of both.

A man like Stannis could never have led a rebellion against Aerys II simply because he lacked the charisma and the personality to do such a thing. And later nobody cares about the legality of his claims because pretty much nobody likes him and many people fear or despise him (especially the Tyrells and other Lords of the Reach). If you feel threatened by the rise of king or his policy you don't support him and/or you rebel against him. Daeron II and Aegon V can tell you stories about that, too.

If Tommen and Myrcella die, the time of the Lannisters in the sun is over. The Tyrells have no reason to hand Jaime or any Lannister any power nor have they any reason to think they need the Lannisters anymore. A King Mace could easily think that he is more acceptable to the Starks, Tullys, Arryns, and Stormlords than a Lannister king. After all, the Tyrells didn't war against any of those regions directly. Jaime, on the other hand, tried to murder Brandon Stark and is hated as the Kingslayer throughout the entire Realm.

And in Jaime's mind there should always be some guy in his mind who would make a better king than he. He would send this guy in first before he would take the throne. Not to mention that no one would ever ask him to become king in the first place. Certainly not the Tyrells. They would first install either Mace or Margaery as the ruling monarch.

Not to mention that the chances that Margaery gets out of her present situation unscathed/alive are very low. For Jaime to become king he would have to return in time to KL to be in an influential position in the right time, but Tommen, Myrcella, and Margaery could easily all die long before that happens.

1. Jamie's claim to Casterly Rock is an interesting matter. Yes, he gave it up to be Kingsguard, but becoming King implies he has finally decided to ditch the Kingsguard and get married just as his father always wanted. As far as I know, Tywin's heirs are still officially the "proprietors" of Casterly Rock, but let's say, for argument's sake, that they did actually give away Casterly Rock when Daven was made Warden of the West. Even so, the current holders of Casterly Rock are entirely dependent on the Lannisters NOT losing power in King's Landing. So if the Lannisters and Tyrells lose their alliance, they lose their hold on the city, and as a consequence they would lose EVERYTHING. So whoever holds Casterly Rock, as long as they hold it via the Lannisters holding power in KL the. they have EVERY interest in seeing Jaime on the Throne.

2. If Tommen and Myrcella are dead, and the Lannister/Tyrell alliance is crumbling, the line of succession is going to be the very last thing on their minds I promise you. It might be Selwyn Tarth who is next in theory, sure. In practice, King Selwyn has zero potential to hold the alliance and therefore the Kingdoms together  and may, in any case, be dead also courtesy of Aegon. Selwyn Tarth is not in King's Landing, he does not have a following, and he can't seal an alliance with marriage. He would have the backing of neither the Lannisters nor the Tyrells. What they are going to need is not some abstract legal logic for figuring out who sits on that throne, but a pure pragmatic solution that preserves the interests of both families and allows them to stay in power in the face of a serious threat from Euron and possibly others. Why should the Tyrells back Selwyn? You seem to forget that the Tyrells may hate the Lannisters, but they NEED them to keep power. Their only alternative is a contender who is actually serious (maybe Aegon, maybe Euron, maybe Dany, maybe Jon. Certainly not Selwyn Tarth).

3. Yes, there are people who care somewhat about the legality of claims, like dead Ned. Anyone who cares ONLY about that and ignore the actual strategic situation on the ground is doomed just as he was. Any "legal" claim is still rooted in conquest, which basically means that someone way back simply TOOK the throne and then did the necessary subjugation and/or diplomacy to turn it into a lasting dynasty, which was then maintained because it was in everyone's best interests to do so. The Baratheon legitimacy was already a very thin argument. It was nothing more than a convenience to prevent the allied families from turning on each other after the Rebellion, but what it was actually based on was the overthrow of the Targaryens. 

What we have after the deaths of Tommen and Myrcella is a very very different situation. The Targaryens were thrown out a generation ago and they simply are no longer the basis of legitimacy, at least, of the legal kind. If Dany became extremely popular she could acquire the sort of legitimacy that Renly had, which is a step away from democratic legitimacy (rather than heredity). But otherwise she would return as a conqueror and nothing more. Her legitimacy ended when her father was killed and the Targ dynasty was thrown out. So the Tyrells and Lannisters are not going to be browsing Targaryen family trees when looking for a new way to stay in power.

 

Have to go, more later.