Let's say GRRM's plan is still for Jaime to take the throne? How?

[Lord Varys]

The problem with this entire scenario is that it simply doesn't work in a world like Westeros. Nobody would look to the crippled Kingslayer for guidance, even if he had shown himself to be ambitious. Not to mention that the way things are set up makes it astronomically unlikely that Jaime ends up in position of (relative) power and authority from which he could even try to claim power.

If Cersei had named him Hand after Tywin's death it could have worked perhaps. Even if he had become Lord Regent after Cersei's arrest instead of Kevan. Perhaps even if he was in KL as Lord Commander of the Kingsguard and a member of the Small Council right now. But he is not. And whatever he is doing with Brienne and Catelyn right now most certainly won't culminate in him returning to KL in power and glory. In fact, what he will be forced to do to save his neck most likely will involve quite a lot of treason against King Tommen and/or his entire family.

I mean, it is quite clear that Cat's next big step is the freeing of the various Riverlord hostages (Edmure, Jeyne Westerling; and all those Red Wedding hostages the fool Jaime has commanded to send to KL) and the retaking of Riverrun (a relatively easy task considering Cat's knowledge of the place and the fact that she has at least one agent - Tom of Sevenstreams - in the castle.

Any scenario in which 'King Jaime' ends up being the last hope of both the Lannisters and the Tyrells is contrived. I mean, we don't even know how long the Lannisters and Tyrells remain allies in the wake of the murder of Kevan and Pycelle. Presumably that is going to have a major impact on Mace's view of Cersei and Cersei's view of Mace... We don't know how long Tommen and Myrcella will live and how they will die. There is no reason to believe they will be still alive when/if Jaime ever returns to KL. And just as Cersei most certainly will believe the Tyrells murdered Kevan and Pycelle, Jaime will believe the same thing. In fact, the entire West might believe that the Tyrells murdered Ser Kevan and Pycelle. And that certainly will be the end of any alliance between the Lannisters and Tyrells. It might continue by a thread but only as long as Tommen yet lives and Margaery isn't convicted - if she is convicted (and executed and/or dying in some other fashion) then any chance of a marriage alliance between the Tyrells and Jaime is over, too.

And the idea that Aegon just suddenly dies and that the Golden Company and Dorne just don't continue their campaign in such a scenario makes no sense, too (Aegon is not going to die soon). But even if he died, they could make Selwyn Tarth their figurehead, or some other Targaryen cousin. Not to mention that the chances are pretty high that Myrcella and Lady Nym never reach KL but are instead taken captive by the Golden Company. We know from Arianne 2 that they took the Boneway and subsequently pass through the Stormlands, passing Storm's End in the process. Lady Nym's 300 spear men are no match for the Golden Company.

If Aegon died the Golden Company/Dorne could continue the war in Myrcella's name, especially if they claimedto have had or actually married a dying Aegon to Princess Myrcella.

In addition, this whole scenario completely ignores the other KL power bloc, the Faith, in all that. Say all the legitimate claimants (Tommen, Myrcella, Aegon) die. Who is going to prevent the High Septon to claim the Iron Throne for himself, in an attempt to establish a real theocracy in Westeros? The deaths of all those claimants will only weaken the legitimacy of the mundane world, strengthening the Faith in the process. The Faith Militan easily could end up becoming the most powerful/only surviving power in KL (say, if the Tyrell armies both leave the city to fight against the Golden Company), and knights and smallfolk are still flocking to their banners. If the High Septon does that it will be very difficult to tear him down again because, you know, you would have to war against the Seven themselves to do that, and who is likely to do that?

In any case, people certainly would turn first to the High Septon before they turned to Jaime...

[Lord Varys]

Hippocras,

the legality of claims matter in war as well as in peace. Westeros is a society build on feudal law and the right of primogeniture. Wars are the exception, not the rule, and while you can oust or usurp somebody's place under certain circumstances people still will remember and know that what this usurper/rebel did was wrong.

Such knowledge only dies in time. When the Conqueror died some people still remembered the old days before the Targaryens and tried to restore them. They failed. By the time Jaehaerys I died those memories are dead and gone. Nobody wants to restore the old days of the Seven Kingdoms anymore.

Roose Bolton has ousted the Starks from Winterfell after they have supposedly ruled for 8,000 years from there. That the Starks are the legitimate rulers of the North will not be forgotten for, I think, at least a century. And so long the Targaryens in exile would still have been a threat to the Baratheon dynasty. Because people knew that the Targaryens were the one who built the Iron Throne Robert now dared sit on. Coming bad times, even the shadow of a fake Stark should be enough to oust Ramsay's grandson out of Winterfell and the North simply because people still want to believe the Starks would return. Just as Rhaego had the potential to grow into a very big threat for Robert's sons and grandsons because even two decades later the people would still remember the Targaryens and that they were the rightful kings of Westeros. Even Viserys III would have had a decent chance to threaten Robert - the man was a fat drunkard and whoremonger at this point, while Viserys III was a good looking youth. Granted, neither was very good king material, but Viserys certainly looked better in 298 AC than Robert.

If you want to claim a crown in a feudal monarchy like Westeros then legitimacy is the only coin that really matters. The rules of the society are not 'everybody follows the strong' or 'might makes right' but 'royal blood is special and the king's heir should rule when the king dies'. Just as a lord's son should rule after his father dies. This is the very core of the feudal culture in Westeros and the very foundation on which the nobility stands.

If 'might makes right' became the foundation then it would be easy for a steward or even a servant to oust his lord and take over a castle and its lands. It would be the pathway to anarchy, and nobody wants that.

This is the reason why no consistent character living in George's Westeros would actually try to install a hated cripple without a claim on the Iron Throne after the death of the last king who still retained some resemblance of a claim (Tommen and/or Myrcella).

If the Tyrells still wanted to cling to power they would either ally themselves with Aegon or with some claimant who still retains a shred of legitimacy. Jaime could be welcome to support that claimant, too, and rule behind the scenes. But putting a claimant with no legal claim at all on the Iron Throne would be a very stupid move, undermining their own goal to remain in control.

By the way: The Lannisters as a house are not in danger at all. If Tommen and Myrcella go down they won't be affected in any way whatsoever. If they bent the knee and cheer the new king nobody is going to come after them. The West is still rich and powerful, and Casterly Rock virtually impregnable. Aegon or any other new king would never go after them if they don't give him a reason (say, if they actively oppose him and/or send an army against him). Especially not those branches of House Lannister who had nothing to do with the atrocities committed against the Targaryens (aside from Jaime they are all dead by now).

Jaime has no reason to become king or control KL to save his family. 

[Hippocras]

Lord Varys,

Replying to your posts is always difficult because they are so long and mine would have to be even longer to cover all the points. I am sorry if I seem to be not responding adequately.

On legality, yes it is important even in times of war if it is straighforward. However in the case of a dynasty that was overthrown it is NOT straightforward. If this were a question fo a Targaryen boy king who dies without heirs then their line of succession would still hold significant sway. But that is not at all the case. You continually fail to acknowledge that the Targaryens were thrown out, and that that complicates the picture on how the line of succession works really quite a lot. There simply would NOT be any consensus on who legally should follow Tommen and Myrcella. Every distant relative of Robert Baratheon and King Aerys and more would be bickering over who had the right to the throne, and the rest would be off supporting those with much more reasonable claims (Dany, Jon etc.).

Aegon (Egg) seems to have been well aware that without dragons, family ties were needed in order to maintain the Targaryen hold on power. This is why the failure of his children to marry who they were supposed to was so disastrous. Only the Baratheon marriage went through, but that was appeasement after squashing a rebellion by Baratheon Sr., and it clearly did not completely work because the rebellion reemerged and won a generation later. Dynastic rules are not enough. They need enforcement. When the Targaryens lost their dragons they also lost all means of enforcing their dynasty without the logic of family ties.

The Lannisters have no blood claim. What they do have is hegemony. A very important word to look up and understand if you do not know it. They hold power as long as people are afraid to rebel against them or do not have the means, just as was true for the Targaryens when they had dragons. Tywin's brutal suppression of Castermere was the basis for this fear in his generation, and Jaime would certainly be tested, so submission would not be automatic. But the Riverlands arc and his activities breaking the siege making it at least possible the Jaime could be set up by GRRM to fill Tywin's shoes.

I am not proposing that if Jaime were to become King that it would happen immediately. There is time for events to progress further first, and during that time Jamie could find himself in quite a different position. Kevan was just murdered. Varys specifically said that he murdered Kevan because Kevan was doing too good a job at restoring order and saving the Lannister/Tyrell alliance. Varys wants the alliance to fracture because it would benefit Aegon. So with Kevan dead, we are going to see some tricky diplomacy in King's Landing in WoW. No doubt Mace will take a turn as Hand but will prove incompetant, die, or otherwise be disposed of. Jaime could come back from the Riverlands with fresh credentials as a diplomat adept in the use of both carrots and sticks (we DID see some of this already) and he could be named Hand. As Hand, responsible for saving the alliance, this could very well be the basis of the trust the two families grant him, making him in the end a logical choice of someone to turn to when war is at their doorstep. 

[Lord Varys]

Hippocras,

the problem is that deposed royal dynasties - especially with long traditions - don't have big problems coming back if the real world history (on which the series is based) is any indication.

Just think about all the historical kings and dynasties which have been overthrown and restored. The idea that public opinion suddenly completely sways to the victor in a dynastic struggle isn't backed up by reality. Robert Baratheon didn't win the hearts of the Seven Kingdoms on the Trident (and he certainly lost quite a lot of sympathies after the Sack). Just take the examples of Henry VI (Lancaster) and Edward IV (York) who were both deposed and restored during the Wars of the Roses. Just because one pretender loses a battle or a war doesn't mean his cause is dead (Richard of York, Edward IV's father, who spearheaded the Yorkist movement against the Lancaster regime even died in battle but his son took up his torch and became king anyway).

Not even if there are actual revolutions and the political system is (radically) changed. Just take the French Revolution as an example. Louis XVI was overthrown and executed, but the monarchists didn't disappear and continued their fight in the name of young Louis XVII with outside help. Eventually Napoleon became Emperor of France but was eventually deposed, too, leading to the restoration of the royal house of Bourbon in the person of Louis XVIII. Later still House Bonaparte was restored to the French throne in the person of Napoleon's nephew, Napoleon III.

Or just take the deposition and execution of Charles I, the relative short Commonwealth episode under Cromwell, eventually resulting in the restoration of Charles I's son, Charles II, to the throne.

There are countless other examples for things like that, really. A royal dynasty/societal change has to have time to take root. If it doesn't have time then things tend to go back to the previous state.

The Lannisters certainly don't have hegemony in any meaningful sense. They lost it with Tywin's death which marked the moment the entire Realm began to turn against the Lannisters and King Tommen (e.g. Borrell allowing Davos to continue, Manderly beginning to plot seriously, the Martells starting serious plans for a Targaryen restoration, the schemes in the Riverlands etc.). The Tyrells control the throne now exclusively. The Lannister reign ended with Cersei's arrest, really. Kevan had to share power with Mace and was completely dependent on him because he himself had no troops, and now Mace will have to share power with no one. Not to mention that the Tyrells - and only the Tyrells - have large armies in the city while the Lannisters have virtually none (except some household guardsmen).

You can, of course, try to spin some story how Jaime could become king. But that is about as likely as Davos marrying Shireen and ruling as king in her name, or Tyrion falling in love with Arya. Not completely impossible but very unlikely indeed.

[Veloknight]

5 hours ago, Hippocras said:

However in the case of a dynasty that was overthrown it is NOT straightforward.

Here's my issue: it's not about whether we, as the readers, consider a claim valid. There is no singular legal truth, here, only competing narratives, which we call 'claims'. If you (someone who wishes the throne) want to win, you have two key audiences: legalists ( who will only back who they genuinely think is the rightful claimant, or at least are strongly loyal to a faction ) and opportunists, who primarily want to win. Most lords are somewhere on the middle, but even those that are purely opportunistic care about legal claims because others will, and those others have armies - which is my big point about feudalism. If Jaime was to become king, I think he'd have a stronger hand angling for the consort of a female pretender of royal descent - i.e., Targaryen descent. So if I'm in charge of the Lannisters (and I have the power to get them all to do what I want), maybe I back Selwyn Tarth or some similar guy after all, in exchange for releasing Jaime and marrying him to Brienne. These are all pretty far-fetched, though, and when the last Lannister-Baratheon dies the Lannister faction would be very desperate to try. After all, backing some obscure but legal pretender in a losing war is inferior to winning the peace by allying with the strongest player and hoping that by the time the mess of wars and winter are over the disastrous Lannister rule will be forgiven.

7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

<snip>

Heck, even the Stuarts are a great example. They never regained power and were deposed (twice!) by Parliament, but they were still taken seriously for a while.

[Little Lark]

17 hours ago, Hippocras said:

It really puzzles me why people would dismiss Jaime as a candidate because he doesn't have the ambition to be King (I agree, he doesn't) while simultaneously being convinced Jon will one day be King. Jon also has no desire to be King. He is not driven by ambition, but if Jon does happen to be revived and make a bid for the throne it will happen because of a sense of duty and NOT desire for power.

Why is that so easy to understand in Jon's case but not in Jaime's? Jaime, after all, is the guy who killed a King to save a city. He would ABSOLUTELY act in a way that could be perceived as a power grab without being worried about perceptions if he felt it was necessary to save a significant number of lives.

We are talking about those sorts of scenarios. We are not suggesting that Jaime would suddenly become an entirely different person.

 

I see three basic paths to Kingship coming from this thread:

1. He does it to heal the fractured alliance with the Tyrells in the face of very serious threats to both families and their bannermen from the likes of Euron. Marge is his queen and this is why the Tyrells stick around instead of finding a new contender to back.

2. By some arcane legal logic, after Myrcella and Tommen die everyone decides to give the throne to a guy they know pretty much nothing about who is a captive of Aegon: Selwyn Tarth. His heir is Brienne. Brienne and Jamie get married while hanging with the BWB in the Riverlands and come out of hiding to find out they are King and Queen now (yeah, not convinced).

3. Cersei convinces Tommen to write a will making Jaime his heir, as he has no children. Her not so subtle plan would be to marry Jaime and stay queen. The in-world precedent of course would be Robb's will which came from similar circumstances. Then Tommen dies. Jaime perceives the situation is quite desperate for his extended family if he does not so he reluctantly takes the throne. But he rejects Cersei and marries someone else who can actually help him secure his Kingdom. Maybe Marge, maybe Sansa, etc.

At what point did Jon get brought into this? Personally, I'm still withholding judgement on who will sit the throne but I definitely feel that Jon has a bit more ambition than Jaime..

Also, in your OP you mention that at times we've seen Jaime look at the throne and he was even caught sitting on it. What exactly was the point of that if not to infer that, on some level, you think he might actually want it?

[Hippocras]

5 hours ago, Little Lark said:

At what point did Jon get brought into this? Personally, I'm still withholding judgement on who will sit the throne but I definitely feel that Jon has a bit more ambition than Jaime..

Also, in your OP you mention that at times we've seen Jaime look at the throne and he was even caught sitting on it. What exactly was the point of that if not to infer that, on some level, you think he might actually want it?

I think Jaime's relationship with that throne is interesting. On the one hand he seems distinctly not ambitious. On the other hand we catch him in moments like that, sitting in the throne to see how it feels, looking at it, having vivid dreams about his legacy, etc.

Maybe it is actually not disinterest but ambivalence: deep down maybe he wants it but has also been rebelling against his father's ambitions for him his entire life. Maybe now that Tywin is dead, Jaime no longer needs to rebel.

Whether Jaime wants power for himself or not, we have definitely seen him thinking about what power is and how it works. If that means GRRM is setting him up to be a King still (however briefly) I don't know. 

 

Jon is just an example of people being inconsistent in their thinking because of rigid beliefs on where this story is going. They say such and such is possible for this character (because it is what they want) and not this other character. But really all it is is that people are entrenched in their various theories.

I am not married to any theory. I find speculation of possibilities interesting.

[Hippocras]

12 hours ago, Veloknight said:

Here's my issue: it's not about whether we, as the readers, consider a claim valid. There is no singular legal truth, here, only competing narratives, which we call 'claims'. If you (someone who wishes the throne) want to win, you have two key audiences: legalists ( who will only back who they genuinely think is the rightful claimant, or at least are strongly loyal to a faction ) and opportunists, who primarily want to win. Most lords are somewhere on the middle, but even those that are purely opportunistic care about legal claims because others will, and those others have armies - which is my big point about feudalism. If Jaime was to become king, I think he'd have a stronger hand angling for the consort of a female pretender of royal descent - i.e., Targaryen descent. So if I'm in charge of the Lannisters (and I have the power to get them all to do what I want), maybe I back Selwyn Tarth or some similar guy after all, in exchange for releasing Jaime and marrying him to Brienne. These are all pretty far-fetched, though, and when the last Lannister-Baratheon dies the Lannister faction would be very desperate to try. After all, backing some obscure but legal pretender in a losing war is inferior to winning the peace by allying with the strongest player and hoping that by the time the mess of wars and winter are over the disastrous Lannister rule will be forgiven.

Heck, even the Stuarts are a great example. They never regained power and were deposed (twice!) by Parliament, but they were still taken seriously for a while.

The problem for the Lannisters though is that they will be fighting the people with the more legitimate claims if going by relationships to the overthrown dynasty. It doesn't make much sense to say that Selwyn Tarth should be King because he has a legal claim via Targ ancestry, while simultaneously rejecting Dany's claim. Furthermore, why would Selwyn Tarth support the Lannister/Tyrell power block rather than siding with Dany or Aegon himself? Same question applies to all the other candidates out there with drops of Targ blood but weaker claims than Dany (or Aegon or Jon).

The Lannister's stake is in the Baratheon dynasty, which means the extended family of Robert Baratheon and not the Targaryens. If they were going to make a show of legality therefore, they would be looking for a relative of Robert Baratheon. I don't know how many relatives of Robert Baratheon are left out there...certainly they would be distant relatives or bastards (who knows, maybe LF offers him Mya Stone). No doubt this would antagonize those who think they have claims via Targ ancestry but that is also true the other way around. Point being, there would be no consensus about who one needs to be related to and how closely in order to substantiate a legal claim. So even the pure legalists would fail to agree.

This is where wills enter the picture. If Tommen and/or Myrcella names an heir, then the will itself creates a form of legal claim. Certainly it would be contested by some who also think they have legal claims, however because none of them would be in sufficient agreement with each other to form a power block, chances are extremely high that whoever actually holds thr throne at the time will keep it. In this case, that is the  Lannister/Tyrell alliance.

 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Hippocras said:

stuff

The Lannisters actually can come around and support either Daenerys, Aegon, or even Euron in the coming struggles. If the Tyrells oust them from power now, and force Cersei to flee the capital something like that might actually happen.

And should Tommen and Myrcella die and Cersei remain in KL as a hostage/prisoner there might even be a split among the Lannisters. Some like Lady Margot Lannister (who is married to Lord Titus Peake) could end up in camp Aegon while the main bulk of the Lannisters back at the Rock eventually join a pretender who offers them revenge against either the Tyrells (for the murder of Kevan and/or the events that led to Tommen/Myrcella/Cersei's death) or against Aegon for the same stuff.

But there time as the power behind the throne is over. If George wanted to install a Lannister on the Iron Throne either Tywin or Jaime would have taken it along time ago. And George wouldn't have introduced Aegon or Euron as rival claimants to the throne. Not to mention Stannis, who wasn't there in the original outline, either.

As things turn out Ned's fear/assumption that Jaime was after the throne indicated by him sitting on it was just a false conclusion. We know that since we had a look in Jaime's head. And Jon Snow judging that Jaime looks like a king says more about his own prejudices about how kings should look than who will become king in this series. Yeah, it could be that this was supposed to be hint to a King Jaime back when the book was written but that plot line has since then long been dropped.

And we only bring up claimants like Selwyn Tarth for a scenario in which Aegon, Tommen, Myrcella, and Dany are all (presumed) dead (and the news about Daznak's Pit will come as a story about the death of Daenerys Targaryen to Westeros - the subtlety that she may have survived will be completely lost). Only then will there be a need to look for another claimant 'outside the box'.

In any other case the powers in KL will just hand over the city to the nearest pretender who is threatening them, most likely Aegon. Should Tommen die before Aegon arrives nobody is going to crown Queen Myrcella. They will all join Aegon VI in an attempt to save their skins just like the Greens in KL abandoned Aegon II and crowned Aegon III when the Blacks were coming for them at the end of the Dance.

Jaime and the Lannisters in general don't have any legal claims, and, more importantly, they are hated/unacceptable by most of the Realm (Dorne, the Riverlands, the Vale, the North, and possibly even the Reach). If they or the Tyrells want to remain a power behind the throne they would have to support a claimant who actually has a legal claim and the only such claim who has more Targaryen blood than the Martells seem to be Selwyn Tarth and Brienne.

You have to keep in mind that the Vale still has fresh troops, and Sansa most likely won't like the idea that the would-be murderer of her brother ends up on the Iron Throne...

[Hippocras]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Lannisters actually can come around and support either Daenerys, Aegon, or even Euron in the coming struggles. If the Tyrells oust them from power now, and force Cersei to flee the capital something like that might actually happen.

And should Tommen and Myrcella die and Cersei remain in KL as a hostage/prisoner there might even be a split among the Lannisters. Some like Lady Margot Lannister (who is married to Lord Titus Peake) could end up in camp Aegon while the main bulk of the Lannisters back at the Rock eventually join a pretender who offers them revenge against either the Tyrells (for the murder of Kevan and/or the events that led to Tommen/Myrcella/Cersei's death) or against Aegon for the same stuff.

But there time as the power behind the throne is over. If George wanted to install a Lannister on the Iron Throne either Tywin or Jaime would have taken it along time ago. And George wouldn't have introduced Aegon or Euron as rival claimants to the throne. Not to mention Stannis, who wasn't there in the original outline, either.

As things turn out Ned's fear/assumption that Jaime was after the throne indicated by him sitting on it was just a false conclusion. We know that since we had a look in Jaime's head. And Jon Snow judging that Jaime looks like a king says more about his own prejudices about how kings should look than who will become king in this series. Yeah, it could be that this was supposed to be hint to a King Jaime back when the book was written but that plot line has since then long been dropped.

And we only bring up claimants like Selwyn Tarth for a scenario in which Aegon, Tommen, Myrcella, and Dany are all (presumed) dead (and the news about Daznak's Pit will come as a story about the death of Daenerys Targaryen to Westeros - the subtlety that she may have survived will be completely lost). Only then will there be a need to look for another claimant 'outside the box'.

In any other case the powers in KL will just hand over the city to the nearest pretender who is threatening them, most likely Aegon. Should Tommen die before Aegon arrives nobody is going to crown Queen Myrcella. They will all join Aegon VI in an attempt to save their skins just like the Greens in KL abandoned Aegon II and crowned Aegon III when the Blacks were coming for them at the end of the Dance.

Jaime and the Lannisters in general don't have any legal claims, and, more importantly, they are hated/unacceptable by most of the Realm (Dorne, the Riverlands, the Vale, the North, and possibly even the Reach). If they or the Tyrells want to remain a power behind the throne they would have to support a claimant who actually has a legal claim and the only such claim who has more Targaryen blood than the Martells seem to be Selwyn Tarth and Brienne.

You have to keep in mind that the Vale still has fresh troops, and Sansa most likely won't like the idea that the would-be murderer of her brother ends up on the Iron Throne...

Yes, it might happen that the Lannisters and Tyrells split. That is a different scenario. The scenario we have been discussing is that they do not. However if they split, The Lannisters have strong reasons not to side with any of Dany, Aegon, Jon or Euron because of their history making those scenarios at least as unlikely as any that sees Jaime serve as King.

Jaime killed Dany's father (and Aegon's presumed grandfather). They are responsible for her being forced to live in exhile. Since then, The Lannisters have been steadily grabbing territory via marriages, and influence via key appointments. They have a great deal of stake in ensuring that Targaryens are NOT restored to power. Jaime would be executed for treason. Many many Lannisters would lose lands and positions. If Targaryens were restored, some Lannisters would certainly survive but nearly all would suffer deep penalties due to their loss of patronage.

Jon clearly is no friend of the Lannisters either since they murdered his adopted father as well as his presumed brother, ignored his pleas for help at the Wall etc. As for Euron, they have experienced in the past what Euron is when their fleet was burned, and would gain no advantage from siding with him either (though of all contenders this is the alliance that seems the most possible to me due to Cersei's desperation to stay in power).

It is interesting to me that you think that in the case of a break-up of their alliance it is the Tyrells who would prevail and the Lannisters who would be forced to flee or be hostages. Given that the Tyrell armies seem to be spread rather thin across the kingdoms ATM, I don't see it as at all inevitable they would prevail in KL.

In the case where Aegon is dead and Dany presumed to be, maybe Lord Tarth make a bit more sense. Maybe. But frankly he would have to do a significant amount of work to convince Lannisters and Tyrells that supporting his claim is in their interest.

 

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

It is interesting to me that you think that in the case of a break-up of their alliance it is the Tyrells who would prevail and the Lannisters who would be forced to flee or be hostages. Given that the Tyrell armies seem to be spread rather thin across the kingdoms ATM, I don't see it as at all inevitable they would prevail in KL.

 

Well, if we presuppose everything is going your way then we have nothing to discuss about, have we? Jaime can only become king if everything goes your way but I and others aren't all that convinced that this is going to happen.

The Tyrells certainly will prevail in KL because they have two strong armies there. Why or how could they lose? Perhaps if they sent all their men against the Golden Company but how likely is that? Cersei and effectively Tommen, too, are now hostages of the Tyrells. They control the city and are at their mercy.

[Hippocras]

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, if we presuppose everything is going your way then we have nothing to discuss about, have we? Jaime can only become king if everything goes your way but I and others aren't all that convinced that this is going to happen.

The Tyrells certainly will prevail in KL because they have two strong armies there. Why or how could they lose? Perhaps if they sent all their men against the Golden Company but how likely is that? Cersei and effectively Tommen, too, are now hostages of the Tyrells. They control the city and are at their mercy.

What do you mean by "my" way?

I have already said I am not married to any particular theory, including King Jaime. For that possibility alone I outlined three entirely different scenarios. So it would be really helpful if you would treat this discussion for what it is: considering one possibility among many, even though it seems unlikely.

You have not the slightest basis for being so dead certain you know what GRRM's plan is. Maybe the moments in the first book are relics of an old plan as you believe, or maybe he actually is still intending this. There IS a small chance of this. If so, it is extremely interesting to try to speculate how it would be possible still to get there from where we are.

[Lord Varys]

I mean your general scenario about

- Jaime returning to KL in the near future (in one piece and still on the Lannister side)

- the Lannisters and Tyrells continuing business as usual and not ripping each other apart in the wake of Kevan's death

- Aegon not taking the throne in the very new future.

[Hippocras]

1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

I mean your general scenario about

- Jaime returning to KL in the near future (in one piece and still on the Lannister side)

- the Lannisters and Tyrells continuing business as usual and not ripping each other apart in the wake of Kevan's death

- Aegon not taking the throne in the very new future.

1. I think it is entirely possible that Jaime dies very soon as a result of being lured to Lady Stoneheart. So him returning intact to KL is not something I take for granted, but simply something that would be a prerequisite to him becoming King...which is what we are speculating scenarios for.

2. Still on the Lannister side? Well I see no sign at all he has turned against the Lannisters in general. In fact rather the opposite. His interactions with other Lannisters in the Riverlands show a strong family loyalty and afinity. He has, however, turned against Cersei.

3. I do not presume the Tyrell/Lannister alliance will stay intact at all. However I see no path to Kingship for Jaime if it falls apart. And we are discussing Jaime's paths to Kingship.

4. Aegon might take the throne in the near future, agreed. But if he does so it will be with the help of the Tyrells IMO, which implies a split of the alliance, and again, I do not see a path to Kingship for Jaime if such a split occurs. So that is not the topic of THIS thread. I am happy to discuss that possibility elsewhere.

[Lord Varys]

I meant Jaime might be forced to turn against his family to save his life if he survives his meeting with Cat. He certainly won't get off the hook easily.

If George wanted to kill Jaime we most likely would have gotten another Jaime chapter in ADwD (or a Brienne chapter) covering his death and finally ending his story for good. It is not very likely he'll die in his first chapter or the first Brienne chapter of ADwD.

I guess I simply cannot imagine Jaime as king and should therefore shut up in this thread. Or, say, I cannot see that happen in the near future. Perhaps at the very end of the series as consort to Brienne, Daenerys or Shireen or something like that. But not a s king-in-between. That's not going to happen.

[A spoon of knife and fork]

10 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I guess I simply cannot imagine Jaime as king and should therefore shut up in this thread. Or, say, I cannot see that happen in the near future. Perhaps at the very end of the series as consort to Brienne, Daenerys or Shireen or something like that. But not a s king-in-between. That's not going to happen.

I could barely sort of see Jaime as King Consort to Margaery, Brienne or Daenerys (haha this would be definitely unexpected).  

How about this for Hippocras' Jaime/Margaery idea.  I think even Hippocras will admit that a reign of King Jaime would be stronger politically if there was some argument to be made that the heir to the throne is of royal descent, than if Jaime + Margaery are trying to make a claim only through marriage.  While it might be true that Jaime COULD try to take the throne in his own right, it would be more likely to gain political support if he takes it on behalf of someone of royal blood. 

So why not have Margaery pretend to bed Tommen, but actually bed Jaime, then get pregnant.  I think this is actually a reasonable thing to assume could happen because right now the line of descent from Robert is looking very weak indeed.  Getting an heir from Tommen ASAP would be of upmost importance to the Tyrells. Jaime is the logical choice given that he looks so much like Tommen and Cersei.  While Tommen is quite "groomable" and likes Margaery and the rest of the Tyrells, he is also still loyal to his own mother, who he loves.  Likewise, a child of Margaery would be unquestionably loyal to his/her mother's family.  

Then let us assume while Marg is pregnant Tommen and Myrcella both die, and Jaime takes Cersei out.  Margaery then marries Jaime to reinforce the fraying Lannister - Tyrell alliance and ultimately Jaime raises his own son to be king.  

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, A spoon of knife and fork said:

I could barely sort of see Jaime as King Consort to Margaery, Brienne or Daenerys (haha this would be definitely unexpected).  

How about this for Hippocras' Jaime/Margaery idea.  I think even Hippocras will admit that a reign of King Jaime would be stronger politically if there was some argument to be made that the heir to the throne is of royal descent, than if Jaime + Margaery are trying to make a claim only through marriage.  While it might be true that Jaime COULD try to take the throne in his own right, it would be more likely to gain political support if he takes it on behalf of someone of royal blood. 

So why not have Margaery pretend to bed Tommen, but actually bed Jaime, then get pregnant.  I think this is actually a reasonable thing to assume could happen because right now the line of descent from Robert is looking very weak indeed.  Getting an heir from Tommen ASAP would be of upmost importance to the Tyrells. Jaime is the logical choice given that he looks so much like Tommen and Cersei.  While Tommen is quite "groomable" and likes Margaery and the rest of the Tyrells, he is also still loyal to his own mother, who he loves.  Likewise, a child of Margaery would be unquestionably loyal to his/her mother's family.  

Then let us assume while Marg is pregnant Tommen and Myrcella both die, and Jaime takes Cersei out.  Margaery then marries Jaime to reinforce the fraying Lannister - Tyrell alliance and ultimately Jaime raises his own son to be king.  

That would only work if Margaery survives with her honor intact and/or if Jaime returns to KL before Tommen dies. Not sure if either of that is likely.

In addition, Tywin already offered Jaime to marry Margaery (instead of her marrying Tommen after Joffrey's death). I cannot easily see that idea being revived again. Especially not if Jaime isn't at least the accepted Lord of Casterly Rock by that time (which isn't very likely since Cersei would have to die before that - and the prophecy seems to suggest that she'll outlive her children).

[A spoon of knife and fork]

19 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That would only work if Margaery survives with her honor intact and/or if Jaime returns to KL before Tommen dies. Not sure if either of that is likely.

In addition, Tywin already offered Jaime to marry Margaery (instead of her marrying Tommen after Joffrey's death). I cannot easily see that idea being revived again. Especially not if Jaime isn't at least the accepted Lord of Casterly Rock by that time (which isn't very likely since Cersei would have to die before that - and the prophecy seems to suggest that she'll outlive her children).

The timeline to allow this is:

Jaime gets back to KL / Myrcella dies (maybe Jaime comes back to KL with Myrcella's body, like will probably happen in the TV series).  

Margaery + Olenna scheme to produce a "Baratheon heir" from Tommen ASAP - now that Jaime is in town they have their sperm donor (why the #*@& Jaime will agree to this while Cersei is still alive is the biggest hole in this theory).  Maybe he wants revenge on Cersei for sleeping with other guys?  Maybe he is convinced it's for the good of the realm?  Maybe he actually is successfully seduced?   I dunno.  

Tommen dies, Cersei tries to burn KL, Jaime kills her.  Meanwhile the Tyrell - Lannister alliance is fighting a war on several fronts, primarily against Aegon and Euron.  

While Margaery is pregnant with Jaime (officially Tommen's) child, and Jaime, heartbroken from the loss of his family, decides it's finally time to take responsibility by accepting the mantle of authority and living his life openly.  Mace/Kevan release him from KG vows, he becomes lord of CR and then marries Margaery and becomes consort to the (future) queen mother.  The first child will be intended to be heir to the IT and any subsequent children heir to the Rock.

Then all the shit hits the fan with Daenerys and Aegon.  In this scenario I imagine Jaime will be dragon food and we are back to the original plan which I assume involves Dany becoming queen first then fighting The Others alongside Jon (not that this is confirmed, it just makes sense given the other information there, IMO). 

Now, I really don't particularly like this theory or think it at all likely.  But if Jaime is going to be king and his child heir to the throne, I think it's basically the only option.  Other than Brienne-as-Targ-heir which is really not foreshadowed at all in the main text.  It would be really out of the blue. 

ETA: Oh, also.  In this theory I think that Brienne will have died while saving Jaime from LS before any of the rest of it.  While Brienne is alive I can't see Jaime becoming involved romantically with anyone else.  This will only add to Jaime's heartbreak - along with Myrcella's death - leading him to be very emotionally vulnerable when he arrives in KL.  

[Hippocras]

1 hour ago, A spoon of knife and fork said:

I could barely sort of see Jaime as King Consort to Margaery, Brienne or Daenerys (haha this would be definitely unexpected).  

How about this for Hippocras' Jaime/Margaery idea.  I think even Hippocras will admit that a reign of King Jaime would be stronger politically if there was some argument to be made that the heir to the throne is of royal descent, than if Jaime + Margaery are trying to make a claim only through marriage.  While it might be true that Jaime COULD try to take the throne in his own right, it would be more likely to gain political support if he takes it on behalf of someone of royal blood. 

So why not have Margaery pretend to bed Tommen, but actually bed Jaime, then get pregnant.  I think this is actually a reasonable thing to assume could happen because right now the line of descent from Robert is looking very weak indeed.  Getting an heir from Tommen ASAP would be of upmost importance to the Tyrells. Jaime is the logical choice given that he looks so much like Tommen and Cersei.  While Tommen is quite "groomable" and likes Margaery and the rest of the Tyrells, he is also still loyal to his own mother, who he loves.  Likewise, a child of Margaery would be unquestionably loyal to his/her mother's family.  

Then let us assume while Marg is pregnant Tommen and Myrcella both die, and Jaime takes Cersei out.  Margaery then marries Jaime to reinforce the fraying Lannister - Tyrell alliance and ultimately Jaime raises his own son to be king.  

Interesting. Creative. Sure! Thanks for your ideas.

[Hippocras]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

That would only work if Margaery survives with her honor intact and/or if Jaime returns to KL before Tommen dies. Not sure if either of that is likely.

In addition, Tywin already offered Jaime to marry Margaery (instead of her marrying Tommen after Joffrey's death). I cannot easily see that idea being revived again. Especially not if Jaime isn't at least the accepted Lord of Casterly Rock by that time (which isn't very likely since Cersei would have to die before that - and the prophecy seems to suggest that she'll outlive her children).

I had forgotten about the Margaery offer previously. But I am not sure his earlier refusal would matter because the situation would be quite different. Before when it came up Jaime was still in the mode of trying to be serious about being a Kingsguard. Whether he becomes King or not, I am quite sure that the loss of all of his children on his watch as LC of the KG will make him seriously rethink his role.