Did Aegon already declare himself as king?

[Fire Eater]

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

George has said that ADwD was supposed to be about 'disease', but that turned out to be a rather big letdown, suggesting that the big plague will come in TWoW. He didn't give Connington the sickness to not spread it. Perhaps he is smart enough not to infect Aegon, but that doesn't mean he isn't going to infect anyone else.

And nobody would die of the normal slow-going greyscale in the remaining books. Not unless there was a jump ahead in time. So if the sickness plays a role Connington will spread the grey plague, and not greyscale.

And, of course, the plague will be the beginning of the end for the 'Aegon is the savior king' story. He'll become the Plague King, the Stone King, the King Who Brought Us Death, and to stay on the throne/control the plague he'll have to very gruesome things. He cannot possibly do that from Oldtown as a base because he would just be the 'King of Oldtown' and/or perhaps the Reach. But to become king in meaningful sense of the word he has to control more than just one kingdom. The Riverlands must be his, the Crownlands, the Stormlands, perhaps even the Vale. And, of course, Dorne. The idea that they would aid him if he ends up trying to win the favor of the Reach of all places - by going to Oldtown - makes little sense to me. Arianne certainly isn't going to like that idea.

We already got disease with the bloody flux in Meereen, and Connington having greyscale.

Again, you're confusing greyscale with the grey plague. Connington has greyscale not the grey plague. Greyscale can't mutate into the grey plague, viruses don't work that way. Those are two different strains.

Oldtown is the richest and most important city in Westeros after KL. Also, Rhaella crowned Viserys even after all their allies dipped their banners with the remaining except Balon being supporters of Robert. Aegon already has the stormlands, and Dorne is assured. The GC is trying to win Reach lords given they are all former Targaryen and Blackfyre supporters (friends in the Reach). They could take a page from Stannis in that ridding areas of the Ironborn is a good way to win local support. They would be succeeding where Tommen's government dragged its feet. Oldtown supported Aegon II in the first Dance as well. I don't know why Arianne would be opposed to be gaining an ally that is the most important and powerful of the Tyrell vassals. 

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

 

The High Septon's power base is the Great Sept of Baelor. Nobody is going to take a ragged band of commoner seriously if that band isn't residing in the seat of the Great Sept - not to mention that the sparrows don't have a power base down in Oldtown. One assumes that the Hightowers have better things to do then to let unwashed beggars enter their city in the thousands...

Tyrion figuring out the Blackfyre riddle isn't what I meant. Who cares what Tyrion tells Daenerys half a world away? He could tell her that Aegon's mother was a spotted cat for all we know. My point is that Illyrio and Varys have to interact with Aegon, Connington, and Arianne to make Aegon's heritage an interesting/important part of the overall story. Whatever Stannis' people or Dany's people will proclaim about Aegon should have about the same effect as Stannis' claims about Joffrey - none. At least as long as Aegon is victorious in battle.

But there is a lot of potential for conflict, backstabbing, and murder if Aegon, Connington, and Arianne learn that Aegon is in fact not Rhaegar's son. And for that they have to be with Aegon, not somewhere else.

The HS's power isn't derived from the Great Sept as it didn't cease when the office moved from the Starry Sept which had been the seat of the Faith for millenia. All the inhabitants of Oldtown follow the Seven, and the Hightowers would be likely to be respectful of the HS and the Faith Militant. Besides, as I already mentioned the Starry Sept was the HQ of the Faith millenia before the Great Sept. The Hightowers wouldn't be opposed to having the honor of hosting the HS, and Oldtown being the capital of the Faith again, even temporarily.

We aren't going to learn of Aegon's heritage from Illyrio and Varys. They would be careful to never mention it. Dany would care, and Dany has to learn of Aegon's identity somehow before she lands in Westeros. Dany's claims would be believed by some, disbelieved by others, and others would give her the benefit of a doubt. I never said people were going to instantly abandon him. I don't think his true identity will be accepted until after his death when new evidence comes to light.

I think Aegon will die in battle not at the hand of Connington or Arianne, The first Blackfyre, Aegon, died by an arrow from a skilled archer named Brynden. I think it will be the same for the last Blackfyre.

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

 

Illyrio could technically join Aegon in Oldtown - but why should he if he said he would join them in KL? That means he'll come when Aegon has won his throne, and Oldtown would only be one step on the way to the real goal (the Iron Throne). So there would be no reason to go there since Illyrio would expect Aegon to march against KL next, right? Perhaps this wouldn't happen in that scenario due to other people's machinations but Illyrio couldn't know that, right?

In addition, Varys would effectively out of the story doing nothing if Cersei ended up controlling the capital until the end of the story. I mean, if he didn't leave the city after Tywin's murder he is going to leave it now. And why the hell shouldn't he do everything in his power to allow Cersei and/or the Tyrells to keep the city that was the Targaryen capital? That just doesn't make any sense.

If there is a wildfire plan Cersei would have to implement that in the very near future, to burn down the Tyrells, the High Septon and the sparrows, and all her other enemies. But she cannot possibly do that if Varys isn't going to let her - which he presumably won't because, you know, without KL, the Red Keep, and the Iron Throne his Targaryen pretender will inevitably fail. Perhaps a Targaryen dragonrider could rebuild the Targaryen reign without the symbolic power of the Red Keep and the Iron Throne, but Aegon won't be able to do so. Blackfyre is just a sword, after all.

He could still join them in KL if he stops in Oldtown. Besides, his plans change often as Tristan Rivers pointed out. 

I never said anywhere that Varys would leave KL, you're putting words in my mouth. He wants Cersei and Mace in power due to their incompetence. All he would have to do is wait for Aegon to arrive. 

I think she wouldn't do that until towards the end of ADoS after the death of all her children with the enemy at the gates. 

[Lord Varys]

The bloody flux is pretty much a joke right now. There has to be more of that, and some actually people we care about have to catch it and die for the book to be about disease. It certainly hasn't run its course yet.

The nature of the grey scale diseases is completely unclear yet. Perhaps the common belief that greyscale is harmless isn't the actual truth just as the maesters' belief that greyscale in children can be stopped might be wrong. If that sickness has a magical origin - and that seems to be the case - then the purpose of Jon Connington's (and Shireen's) infection isn't just that they suffer/die slowly from it. They will spread it, and that will only be fun if it begins to kill people like flies, not kill somebody over a period of time that stretches most likely beyond the time the series is going to cover.

Besides, viruses and bacteria can mutate. But this isn't even necessary in this case. There are rather obvious parallels between greyscale/grey plague and the two major types of the real plague - bubonic plague resembling greyscale, and pneumonic plague resembling the grey plague - The latter is the more lethal strain that can actually develop out of the former - if the bubonic plague spreads to the lungs - and can then also be transferred from person to person (which the bubonic plague cannot, it usually transmitted via rat fleas).

It is easily imaginable that the average greyscale patient actually has the potential to spread the grey plague and/or develop this sickness. That certainly wouldn't be a surprise. Why the hell would George waste our time with stories about the grey plague if we are not going to see it firsthand?

Strategically it just doesn't make sense for Aegon and the Golden Company to march to Oldtown and/or even care about the Ironborn threat. Those Reach Lords dealing with the Ironborn threat already can't help him win the Iron Throne, and there is no guarantee that he'll even be able to help them. What would happen if Leyton and Garlan had already dealt with Euron when Aegon and his band arrive? Would they then just declare for him? Why? Because he looks so good?

And vice versa, if the Reach is desperate enough to beg a sellsword-backed pretender for help (why they would even do that is beyond me) Aegon can only lose if he he risks his own troops in helping them. He'll be cut off from the sea and quick retreat, the Lannisters and Tyrells back in KL will have time to consolidate their power, perhaps even crush the outlaws and rebels in the Riverlands while Aegon plays with the pirates.

Not to mention that, again, Aegon has no ships. Unless conveniently he arrives at the right place at the right time when all of Euron's troops are on land he won't be able to help anyone. Elephants can't walk on water.

Dorne wants revenge against the Lannisters. They have no reason to like or love the Reach, and they have no interest in the Reach or Marcher Lords trying to steal their place as Aegon's primary allies.

If Euron is stupid enough to attack and besiege Oldtown or Highgarden Aegon's enemies are all occupied. That would be the ideal time to take the city and the throne, and hope that this will end the entire war rather than become entangled in secondary squabbles.

Marching to Oldtown would be about the same as if Robb had tried to defeat the Lannisters by marching to the Vale (to help Lysa with the harvest), against Renly, Stannis, or the Ironborn. It is quite clear who Aegon's enemies - King Tommen and the Lannisters (and Tyrells, if they stick to them). He has no reason to even consider the pirate king a threat.

Well, I can just say that I as the High Septon would never willingly abandon the Great Sept of Baelor, my own seat since about century. Why the hell should I do a thing like that?

The Oldtowners and the Hightowers are followers of the Seven, yes. But they are also rich merchant lords and not exactly the greatest friends of common rabble. Allowing a begging brother to take over the Starry Sept - or have an army of unwashed people harass the good citizens of Oldtown will be poison for trade and the peace in the city.

Why shouldn't we learn about Aegon's true heritage from Varys or Illyrio? Who else is going to confirm the truth? Nobody else should know the truth. Myles Toyne - who may have known - is dead. But Illyrio himself has a vested interest in getting close to his son, and might actually let something slip while drunk during a feast. Not to mention that we actually don't know what Aegon knows or remembers about his early years himself, or what Varys/Illyrio plan to tell him about his heritage after he has taken the throne. I mean, if they want to continue to play a role in his life they have to be emotionally close to him, right? There is potential for a good story there, especially if Connington and Arianne are also around. 

Dany doesn't have to learn the truth about Aegon at all. She could just decide that this boy is fake and trying to steal her crown. Or she could decide to war against him because his faction began the whole thing, either being pushed into it by Doran/Arianne (in the wake of the Quentyn story) or because Varys and Illyrio tried and failed to take out Dany after they learned she survived Daznak's Pit. If Aegon is king by then then Dany is no longer needed, a potential threat rather than an ally, and she and her dragons have to go. And that would be best accomplished if she died long before she ever sat foot on Westerosi soil.

Well, Varys continuing to hang out in KL while Aegon is not coming would make a very poor story. In fact, nothing happening in KL would make for a poor story. I mean, what do you think will happen after the Tyrell-Golden Company battle that seems to be coming? What are Cersei, Mace, Tarly, and whoever remains back there are going to do until Dany arrives?

[Fire Eater]

It's not a joke to the Ghiscari legions and Meereenese. You said it had to be about disease, and the bloody flux was given enough attention. 

There is no incoming grey scale plague. It doesn't spread quickly enough, unlike the grey plague. Grey scale and grey plague are two different strains. There is no connection given between greyscale and the grey plague given and you would be hard-pressed to find any.

This series isn't about disease, and we don't need to see every disease. He does't waste our time with it that is ane xaggeration given it is only mentioned a few times in the series. The grey plague is mentioned in TSS, and it killed off a number of people including Daeron II and Baelor's sons. We see greyscale, because it plays a role in Connington's plot as well as with Shireen. 

Well, if you look at the history of the Blackfyres specifically Daemons I&II you see a pattern.  Daemon I wa sundone by dismounting and looking after his fallen opponent while Daemon II's tourney was caught and undone. Both were men who romantic idealism led to their downfalls. Like Daemon II, Aegon is eager for glory, and would likely want what would make a great story. What evidence do you have they can't help win the IT? The Reach armies are still very much intact. They shouldn't care about a rival claimant to the IT like Euron? They will need to take care of him eventually, and doing so will potentially win aid from Reach lords. Garlan and Leyton look hard-pressed. Aegon could still win Reach because obviously "friends in the Reach," and almost all the Reach lords are former Targaryen supporters. 

He could crush the Ironborn if they eventually attack Oldtown, and he arrives to surprise them. 

Then why did they fight with Reachmen against Robert during Robert's Rebellion and the Blackfyre Rebellions? They clearly needs swords to support Aegon's claim, and I highly doubt given their history they would want the Reachmen as enemies rather than allies. 

Euron's actions make it clear he wants to attack Oldtown. He would likely draw the Hightower fleet away with a token force, and take a page form Harwyn Hardhand, and carry longships overland to the Honeywine to attack from where the Hightowers would least expect it. Longships on water outpace horses on land. Euron still is a problem that Aegon will have to deal with eventually given he is a rival claimant for the IT, and attacking what would be Aegon's realm. 

Because if you want to declare for Aegon you wouldn't want to do it in the vicinity of the Lannisters. You're placing too much emphasis on the Great Sept, It isn't a castle, and his power doesn't derive from it. You know for a guy whose avatar is Lord Varys you seem to have forgotten his riddle.  

Merchants don't have the same disdian towards peasants as the nobles. A number of merchants did come from the lower classes. This former begging brother is the HS, and name one person who has expressed disdain over him besides Cersei. Poison for trade and peace? That is a baseless claim to which you have provided no evidence to support. How much trade was poisoned in KL by them? How many riots or public disturbances were caused by them?

Dany needs to learn the truth, and it won't come from Varys and Illyrio. The Illyrio we have seen is careful regarding secrets, and makes sure not to reveal too much. I think the closest we would get to a confirmation is if towards the end Aegon confronts Illyrio or Varys tells Arya, whom he believes to be a little bird.

Yes, she does. What would she have to go one or suspect he is fake without any info? She wouldn;t willingly try to take the crown form a boy she believes to be the real Aegon since she would be what she hates, a usurper, and she would be spitting on her beloved brother's memory. 

Varys would continue to drive Cersei and the Tyrells apart. The incoming Tyrell is  

[Lord Varys]

Well, the bloody flux epidemic clearly isn't over yet, or is it. I can get a lot worse now that many people inside Meereen will be infected too via the corpses that have been thrown into the city. Perhaps even people both the story and the reader cares about. A plague that only kills extras isn't all that relevant.

Of course there is a connection between greyscale and the grey plague. They came up together and people seem to be very aware that they are different version of the same sickness. Assuming Jon Connington or the (allegedly dormant) greyscale in Shireen are going to infect other people is very unlikely the way this is built up. Unlike the assumption that Aegon is marching to Oldtown there is actually evidence in the text (Val claiming that Shireen is still in danger and can infect other people; Connington being infected and a carrier of greyscale) that this is going to happen. And who is to say that the people Connington or Shireen will infect will have the same version of the sickness as they have. In children greyscale supposedly can stop, but in adults it is always leading to death. If children can infect adults - and they can - then the strain of the sickness can behave quite differently.

By the way, the Great Spring Sickness has nothing to do with the grey plague. It was an entirely different sickness. The grey plague is mentioned in passing throughout the series but only really elaborated upon in ADwD. And there has to be a reason for that. We don't get that for any of the other main sicknesses that are mentioned.

Aegon has nothing to do with the two Daemon Blackfyres. The only historical figure with whom the Aegon character is blatantly and very obviously connected is Daeron I whose exact words Aegon either consciously or unconsciously quotes during his speech to the Golden Company. 'I'm the only dragon that you need.' He has the same strengths and weaknesses as the Young Dragon but this doesn't mean that he and his Kingsguard will be cut down by traitors during a parley, nor does this mean he'll die in Dorne.

The idea that all the historical stuff is pointing towards future developments is just silly. The Hightowers backing the Greens during the Dance means nothing in relation to the present story, the Second Dance included.

The Reach armies simply are not necessary to win the Iron Throne. The Golden Company, the Stormlanders who'll join Aegon, and Dorne should be more than enough to take KL. Marching into the Reach gives King Tommen's friends time enough to raise new levies, defend the city, and possibly even retake the Stormlands and many of the castles in Aegon's absence.

Risking your own life and the life of your troops during a secondary campaign during which you might lose about as many troops as might gain is just stupid. What if Euron is stronger than they expect and the battle turns against them, killing more thousands of Dornishmen and/or Golden Company veterans. What if they come to late and many Reach men have already been slaughtered before Aegon even arrives?

Aegon is effectively at the very doorstep of KL now, in a very secure position right now. He wants people to come to him. They are not there to save some 'friends in the Reach' from the Ironborn, they are there to draw those men to their cause. Aegon might eventually march against Euron and the Ironborn but not while at least a good portion of Westeros doesn't yet acknowledge him as the king. And to be acknowledged as the king he at least needs KL and/or eradicate the line of the usurper. While Tommen and Myrcella are still out there he would be entirely stupid to go to Oldtown.

In addition, why the hell would Aegon really care about the fate of the Reach. Mace Tyrell is already throwing an army against him. And army that has to be defeated first, and during the coming battle at least some people on his side (most likely entirely Golden Company men because Dorne has yet to join Aegon) will die, being killed by Reach men. Why would he now want to win the love and support of the very lords who were marching against him there? Why would he want to help the Tyrells and their in-laws, the Hightowers? Why would he think that they are worth it?

The so-called friends in the Reach should be houses like the Merryweathers and the Peakes who aren't necessarily directly threatened by the Ironborn, not some of the houses the Tyrells are closely related. They will hope to regain lands and titles long lost if they support Aegon, and that will only work if he wins the Iron Throne. Defeating Euron would just strengthening the position of the Hightowers and Tyrells again, something which they would not be looking forward all that much.

Unlike during the other rebellions Euron is keeping the Reach occupied right now. They cannot hope to threaten his position in the Stormlands, especially not if some Dornishmen guard his rear. He can march against KL full force. George had the Ironborn invade the Reach for a reason - to keep them occupied and unable to deal with Aegon's invasion with their entire strength. And not the entire Reach is threatened by the Ironborn - with Mace's sons occupied down in the coast lands, those houses in the northern parts of the Reach can rather easily decide to join Aegon and even march against KL without fearing immediate Tyrell repercussions.

The High Septon leaving KL is just a completely unbelievable scenario. He'll only do this if he is forced to, but if there are forces who can force him to leave then he is very serious trouble, most having lost a good quantity of his followers and army, and only the Tyrell armies would have the strength to do this. But if they do it, then there is simply no chance that Mace father-in-law and the other Hightowers and Tyrells (among them Mace's uncle, the Lord Commander of the City Watch of Oldtown) would allow him access to the city and not, you know, arrest him on sight.

The High Septon obviously doesn't care about the Lannisters or Tyrells - he arrested queens from both those houses with impunity. He is entirely capable of proclaiming Aegon the true king while the Tyrells still hold the city, especially if he does so during an inspiring sermon, evoking visions from the Seven and other religious stuff - the men serving in the Tyrells armies, the City Watch, and the household guards are all smallfolk, and many of them will be more or less pious. If the Tyrells army loses the battle against the Golden Company that alone could be successfully construed as 'a sign from the Seven' that Aegon is the true king, and there could be a huge Faith-led uprising engulfing the entire city which allows Aegon to take the city without so much as even trying to besiege the city.

If a majority of the Reach men in the Tyrell army is unwilling/reluctant to even consider the possibility to attack or besiege the Great Sept or doing so much as threaten the High Septon with violence, then the Tyrells and Lannisters both already have lost, and the High Septon controls the city. If push comes to shove the Kingslanders will stand with him, not the Tyrells or Lannisters, and nobody can hold a city against the will of the people.

Dany doesn't have to fight against Aegon because she believes he is fake. She could just do so because Aegon has made it clear that he doesn't want her in Westeros and/or tries to assassinate her while she is still abroad. That's what I'd do if I was Varys. Get rid of Daenerys while she isn't yet a direct threat if Aegon doesn't need her or her dragons anymore (because he has already conquered Westeros). It does not matter whether Aegon is real or fake if he is Dany's enemy.