Bolton's Betrayal

[aryagonnakill#2]

I don't understand what your saying.  The day before the battle Tywin is still falling for it, and Roose knows this based on the fact that he is still coming toward him.  If he holds his position it is theoretically possible that Tywin finds out the next day, but thats what happened anyway.  In either situation Tywin finds out at the same time, and that is assuming the worst, it is also possible he does not find out for another day or two.  At that point, regardless of whether Tywin takes off or not, it would take him days to get to Riverrun, if not a week or more, and it had already been a few days since they split up at Riverrun.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

27 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I don't understand what your saying.  The day before the battle Tywin is still falling for it, and Roose knows this based on the fact that he is still coming toward him.  If he holds his position it is theoretically possible that Tywin finds out the next day, but thats what happened anyway.  In either situation Tywin finds out at the same time, and that is assuming the worst, it is also possible he does not find out for another day or two.  At that point, regardless of whether Tywin takes off or not, it would take him days to get to Riverrun, if not a week or more, and it had already been a few days since they split up at Riverrun.

Did Tywin not find out about the attack on Kings Landing while he was at Riverrun (the battle of the Fords) and was he not able to reach Kings Landing while the battle was still going on and influence the outcome? The distance between the Green Fork and Riverrun(255-300) is shorter than the Fords to Kings Landing (750).

Same scenario. Although Robb's plan was working perfectly there was still a chance that a Lannister scout could have noticed the 6,000 army approaching from the North giving Jaime more time to organize his defences and send word to Tywin and holding off Robb's forces in time for Tywin's 7k cavalry to reach Riverrun.

Keeping Tywin occupied for a day or 2 longer than he need be might make all the difference, or against it might not but that was what he was planning at Moat Cailin. To catch Tywin with his "breeches down" and "leaving our riders free to hurry down the west bank to Riverrun". I guess every extra day was an advantage for Robb.

Now considering what was said at Moat Cailin, Robb seemingly being OK with the large amount of casualties (3-5k) taken at the Green Fork and his reaction to Duskendale (1k) and his fury with Glover he must have been on board with the strategy.

Given how desperate he is for troops it seems bizarre that he would be OK with this, especially as he had picked Roose based on his pragmatism.

And then there is Roose, it seems unlikely that he would deliberately get beat like that as there is the possibility that Tywin could have perused his army and finished him off,, or taken so many casualties that Robb wanted words with him. There is literally no gain for him in that scenario.

[OldGimletEye]

57 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Why would Tywin move further North? He was in the best location and Robb had to either engage or go home.

 

Why would Tywin decide to move North in the first place, along the east side of the Green Fork? Well, Tywin is not a stupid man either. Certainly, he would know that by taking his army northward he would put a significant obstacle between him and Jaime's army at River Run, making rapid reinforcement of Jaime's army difficult. And if I recall correctly, Kevan shows some unease about Tywin's decision to move northward, recommending that Tywin stay put with his army around the cross roads.

The answer seems to be that Tywin underestimated Robb calling him a "green boy" or something to that effect. Even if Tywin had stayed put once he moved Northward, that wouldn't have been a bad outcome. Roose needed only to make sure Tywin didn't turn around and start marching south.

 

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 And yet he was satisifed, leaving Roose in charge of the other army for the duration of the war.

And perhaps Robb shouldn't have been. The fact of the matter is Roose made some questionable tactical choices. His deciding to go on the tactical offensive, when he was outnumbered and had little to no cavalry, doesn't make a lot of sense. It seems to me that Roose should have found, particularly given his lack of cavalry, a good piece of dirt and fought a defensive battle from it.

And again, why did Roose decide to steal a night's march? Was there any indication that Tywin had gotten wind of the trap was going into? Nope. So, I have no idea why Roose felt the need to steal a night's march on Tywin.

 

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Because they needed his army occupied. That was the plan at Moat Cailin, to engage with Tywin giving the Robb and his riders the chance to sneak up on Jaime. Robb mentions catching Tywin with his "breeches down", that means catching him off guard and as quickly as possible.

And so long as Tywin, keeps marching northward, or doesn't turn around, there is no reason for Roose to act over aggressively. The further Tywin proceeds Northward, the worse off he is going to be when the hammer drops on Jaime's forces.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

18 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

 

And so long as Tywin, keeps marching northward, or doesn't turn around, there is no reason for Roose to act over aggressively. The further Tywin proceeds Northward, the worse off he is going to be when the hammer drops on Jaime's forces.

But he was not marching North. This is all based on perception. To Robb Tywin moving from the Inn at the Crossroads/Harrenhal to the Green Fork is moving North, but that does not mean he was marching to the Twins to face him.

"Splendid. Return to Ser Addam and tell him to fall back. He is not to engage the northerners until we arrive, but I want him to harass their flanks and draw them farther south."

Tywin had a great location to face Robb and, expecting the Walder to not get involved, he was thinking that Robb had no choice but to face him and he was fixing a defensive postion, not marching to face Robb.

"to the ford and ringed by pits and spikes. If they are coming south, I say let them come, and break themselves against us."

edit: here is a map of it. Though there is a chance this is wrong and the battle of the Green Fork took place slightly further North. My head canon is basically based on this map

 

 

[Adam Yozza]

2 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Keeping Tywin occupied for a day or 2 longer than he need be might make all the difference, or against it might not but that was what he was planning at Moat Cailin. To catch Tywin with his "breeches down" and "leaving our riders free to hurry down the west bank to Riverrun".

 

The plan was to surprise Tywin. I wouldn't question his night march if he had actually beaten Tywin using it, or come close. But the fact that he deliberately stopped a whole mile away and blew horns instead of using the little cavalry he had to attack them straight away. Even then I could be convinced, but him charging downhill? Archers firing on their own forces? The Northern left (led by a Frey btw) not being involved in any serious engagement? Roose could have easily sat on that hill and forced Tywin to come to him, and even if Tywin didn't go on the offensive, he still wouldn't have been able to turn around without sacrificing a significant portion of his army to hold the Stark foot back.

The plan at Moat Cailin was to delay Tywin. I accept that Roose did that, never denied it. But he sabotaged his rival lords forces in the process and the Flayed Man was not on the field at all. Furthermore, as much a Bolton surprised Tywin, he gave him the chance to get his breeches back up again before attacking.

There wasn't a huge difference in numbers either; the Northerners/Frey's had 17k and Tywin had 20k. The difference is Roose only had 500 horse (who make no appearance in the battle either) while roughly a third of Tywin's host was mounted (7k). As I mentioned previously, Lannister arrows wouldn't make it up hill very much and those 7k wouldn't have been very effective in an uphill charge. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

20 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

He didn't turn his cloak that early. He did exactly what he was ordered to do, march as quick as possible and engage in battle so Tywin and his 20k would not have a chance to respond.

What people seem to forget is that Robb's battle tactic went perfectly at Riverrun. The fact that none of the Lannister scouts spotted any movement was unexpected, as was Jaime idiotically going to deal with it himself and not alerting the 13k army with him. Robb got to capture Jaime and attack a sleeping army quickly freeing Edmure and the other prisoners. It was a battle that was over very quickly when it could have gone on much longer or even been a stalemate or a Lannister victory.  It could not have gone any more smoothly but Robb and the Blackfish would have also had to plan for the possibility that things could have gone wrong and that is why they needed Roose to march through the night and engage in battle as Tywin responding would have resulted in Robb's defeat.

Roose gets criticized for holding himself and his own men back, but that is what many commanders do. they do not deliberately weaken their own forces especially when they have marched into a battle that they had little chance of winning.

There is also the fact that some other nobles were killed or took hostage but then that was true in Robb's victory as well as. Had Robb not used the heir of Hornwood as one of his guards then the Hornwood situation would never have arisen.

 

We have a fairly good idea of when Roose changed sides, ACOK 64. Harrenhal has just heard of Tywin's victory at Kings Landing and the general consensus among the Harrenhal smallfolk is that they will be next:

"He will fall too, Harrenhal pulls them all down in the end. Lord Tywin's won now, he'll be marching back with all his power, and then it will be his turn to punish the disloyal."

This is a view that is not only thought by the smallfolk but the (largely) Frey knights with Roose:

"Someone must have the courage to say it," Ser Hosteen said. "The war is lost. King Robb must be made to see that."

Roose Bolton studied him with pale eyes. "His Grace has defeated the Lannisters every time he has faced them in battle."

"He has lost the north," insisted Hosteen Frey. "He has lost Winterfell! His brothers are dead . . . "

Now note that there the Freys, though worried, are still loyal to Robb at this point. And there does not seem to be any secret alliance between Roose and the Freys as Roose is still, publicly at least, backing Robb though his final words in that conversation hint that this may change:

"And who will tell him so?" Roose Bolton smiled. "It is a fine thing to have so many valiant brothers in such troubled times. I shall think on all you've said."

His smile was dismissal.

Now what happens on the next page is hugely probably the most symbolic of Roose cutting all ties with Robb as he goes hunting for Wolves in the Riverlands. 

The hunting party returned near evenfall with nine dead wolves. Seven were adults, big grey-brown beasts, savage and powerful, their mouths drawn back over long yellow teeth by their dying snarls. But the other two had only been pups. Lord Bolton gave orders for the skins to be sewn into a blanket for his bed. "Cubs still have that soft fur, my lord," one of his men pointed out. "Make you a nice warm pair of gloves."

This is the chapter Roose decided  to switch sides.

I agree that Roose did what he was told to do, and did it well. But I think Walder began courting Roose right after the battle--just in case--and I think Tywin began courting Walder as soon as he occupied Harrenhal. That's Tywin ransomed Freys but not Manderlys, and Roose, who occupied the Ruby Ford after wedding Fat Walda and after Tywin's retreat, had to have been aware of the ransom. 

I'm not saying that's when Roose betrayed Robb. But that letter from Fathe Walda was a coded message from Walder, indicating that Tywin had agreed to Roose's terms. Roose surely determined to betray Robb as soon as Tyrells joined Lannister and defeated Stannis. 

[thelittledragonthatcould]

6 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I agree that Roose did what he was told to do, and did it well. But I think Walder began courting Roose right after the battle--just in case--and I think Tywin began courting Walder as soon as he occupied Harrenhal. That's Tywin ransomed Freys but not Manderlys, and Roose, who occupied the Ruby Ford after wedding Fat Walda and after Tywin's retreat, had to have been aware of the ransom. 

 

That seems fair, though courting(on Walder's part not Tywins) makes it sound more duplicitous that I would state it at that point. I agree the two of them would have been forging a stronger alliance quite early in anticipation of forming a new power block in the (possible) new Northern kingdom. Of course that relationship made it easier for them both to switch sides (for their own reasons) when the Blackwater/Jeyne double whammy happened.

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

That seems fair, though courting(on Walder's part not Tywins) makes it sound more duplicitous that I would state it at that point. I agree the two of them would have been forging a stronger alliance quite early in anticipation of forming a new power block in the (possible) new Northern kingdom. Of course that relationship made it easier for them both to switch sides (for their own reasons) when the Blackwater/Jeyne double whammy happened.

Yeap. 

[OldGimletEye]

11 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

But he was not marching North. This is all based on perception. To Robb Tywin moving from the Inn at the Crossroads/Harrenhal to the Green Fork is moving North, but that does not mean he was marching to the Twins to face him.

"Splendid. Return to Ser Addam and tell him to fall back. He is not to engage the northerners until we arrive, but I want him to harass their flanks and draw them farther south."

Tywin had a great location to face Robb and, expecting the Walder to not get involved, he was thinking that Robb had no choice but to face him and he was fixing a defensive postion, not marching to face Robb.

"to the ford and ringed by pits and spikes. If they are coming south, I say let them come, and break themselves against us."

edit: here is a map of it. Though there is a chance this is wrong and the battle of the Green Fork took place slightly further North. My head canon is basically based on this map

 

Actually here is the entire exchange between Tywin and Kevan:

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Lord Tywin Lannister did not smile. Lord Tywin never smiled, but Tyrion had learned to read his father's pleasure all the same, and it was there on his face. "So the wolfling is leaving his den to play among the lions," he said in a voice of quiet satisfaction. "Splendid. Return to Ser Addam and tell him to fall back. He is not to engage the northerners until we arrive, but I want him to harass their flanks and draw them farther south."

"It will be as you command." The rider took his leave.

"We are well situated here," Ser Kevan pointed out. "Close to the ford and ringed by pits and spikes. If they are coming south, I say let them come, and break themselves against us."

"The boy may hang back or lose his courage when he sees our numbers," Lord Tywin replied. "The sooner the Starks are broken, the sooner I shall be free to deal with Stannis Baratheon. Tell the drummers to beat assembly, and send word to Jaime that I am marching against Robb Stark."

"As you will," Ser Kevan said.

Notice here that it is Kevan that wants to stay put. And, I think, Kevan is right. By remaining at the Cross Roads, Tywin's army is in a way better position to reinforce Jaime's army, since there is a road that runs east to west from the cross roads to River Run.

And it looks like that, in fact, Tywin wants to and does march his army northward potentially putting the Green Fork between his army and Jaime's.

How far North, along the Green Fork, did Tywin's army get? Well, as far as I can tell, we don't know. We have from Tyrion:

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Tyrion arrived late, saddlesore, and sour, all too vividly aware of how amusing he must look as he waddled up the slope to his father. The day's march had been long and tiring. He thought he might get quite drunk tonight. It was twilight, and the air was alive with drifting fireflies.

So Tywin's army did in fact march Northward. How long they did is not possible to tell from Tyrion's description. At no point, though, until after the battle is fought does Tywin catch wind of what Robb might be up to.

Under these circumstances, Roose stealing a night's march is pretty inexcusable. There was no need for Roose to march his army over night. He could have marched his army at a normal pace and Tywin would have been none the wiser.

Roose mission wasn't to engage Tywin and destroy Tywin's forces in a decisive battle. Roose's mission was to keep Tywin's attention away from River Run. There was no need for Roose to be in a hurry to engage Tywin's forces. When Roose's forces were about a day or so away from Tywin's forces he should have taken his time. The longer Roose delayed the battle, the longer Tywin would linger. And the longer Tywin lingered the better for Robb.

The only person in this scenario that had any business stealing a night's march would have been Tywin had he learned about Robb at River Run, which would have required Tywin to break contact with Roose.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

11 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

 

Under these circumstances, Roose stealing a night's march is pretty unexcusable. .

So then why did Robb not react to this?

If it was both a costly victory and the casualties mounted up why was Robb perfectly fine with Roose leading the majority of the Northern army for the remainder of the war?

Either Robb and his advisers at Riverrun are all complete idiots who were perfectly fine with this act that you refer to as inexcusable and allowed Roose to stay in control or the plan from the start was a forced march and to engage the enemy.

edit: If it is a case of the former rather than the latter then it was not Roose who sabotaged the Northern campaign but Robb for allowing Roose to remain in the position of command after making an 'unexcusable' decision.

[OldGimletEye]

2 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

So then why did Robb not react to this?

If it was both a costly victory and the casualties mounted up why was Robb perfectly fine with Roose leading the majority of the Northern army for the remainder of the war?

Either Robb and his advisers at Riverrun are all complete idiots who were perfectly fine with this act that you refer to as inexcusable and allowed Roose to stay incontrol or the plan from the start was a forced march and to engage the enemy.

 

Let me start with this. Do you think the forced march was necessary? Seriously? Just as a matter of tactics given the operational goals of Robb's plan?

Honestly, I'll have to look that up to understand why Robb didn't say anything. It could be though, that Robb was just being an idiot here. Or maybe GRRM didn't really think through the situation. I don't know.

[Universal Sword Donor]

I think the easiest way for me to explain is a sports metaphor. Yay basketball!

Robb: Roose my man! I want 30 points out of you tonight so we can humiliate the Lannisters. Tywin has a mean sky hook. I need 20 at least to win this 3-game series.

Roose: I got this.

*they split up*

Roose: Hmmm it's halftime (right before the night march) and I have 19 points. I bet I can get the bookie to slide me a few bucks if I shave* a coupla points off the final.

*Roose ekes out 20 points*

Robb: YEAH ROOSE WE WON! THE LANNISTERS ARE ALMOST ELIMINATED. 

* Shaving off the points isn't Tywin bribing him but rather the power vacuum Roose arranges for, especially in neighboring lands.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

5 hours ago, OldGimletEye said:

Let me start with this. Do you think the forced march was necessary? Seriously? Just as a matter of tactics given the operational goals of Robb's plan?

To keep Tywin's army distracted? Possibly, but I am not basing my thoughts on hindsight or an advanced military learning but both the wording used at Moat Cailin and the Twins. 

For good or ill, her son had thrown the dice.

The almost guaranteed loss of  a few thousand was worth it as gaining Riverrun meant gaining 10-15,000 more troops, more land and cuts off the Lannisters from the Westerlands.

As we have both agreed, Robb's plan of attack went perfectly but it was possible that any number of things could have went wrong and either given away his plans or delayed his victory at Riverrun giving Tywin time to send  his cavalry back there and win.

Delaying Tywin by a couple of days with him expecting the Northern host coming for him gives Robb a slight advantage. Not a huge one, not even a guaranteed one, but as Cay points out it was a gamble.

The conversation at Moat Cailin implies that the march was supposed to be quick (catching Tywin with his breeches down) and an actual battle (replacing Greatjon with Roose to limit casualties).

Not only does the wording of Robb's plan match up with what happened but so does his reaction in the aftermath. Cat only suggested Roose lead one battle, but Robb left him in charge for the remainder of the war. While his anger with Glover over the loss of 1k is palpable, there was no such reaction for Roose, while he was happy to threaten the Greatjon, executed Karstark and told Edmure that he failed there was nothing stopping from punishing/showing Roose his disappointment and replacing him or even warning him such an unexcusable action will not be tolerated again.

5 hours ago, OldGimletEye said:

Honestly, I'll have to look that up to understand why Robb didn't say anything. It could be though, that Robb was just being an idiot here. Or maybe GRRM didn't really think through the situation. I don't know.

Or maybe, more likely, that was the plan. Riverrun knew that Roose had been beaten, knew the kind of casualties that loss had inflicted;

You've forgotten Roose Bolton. Lord Tywin defeated him on the Green Fork, but failed to pursue. When Lord Tywin went to Harrenhal, Bolton took the ruby ford and the crossroads. He has ten thousand men.

And yet neither Robb or Cat think of this battle as an unexcusable act. If this was not part of the plan then Robb sabotaged his own campaign by allowing Roose to remain in charge.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

16 hours ago, Adam Yozza said:

Roose only had 500 horse (who make no appearance in the battle either)

Small point, but Tyrion fights a mounted Northman in the battle, so at least some of the horse were engaged. Also, more generally, while advances from the left and the use of Dreadfort men aren't mentioned, that doesn't mean they weren't used. The entire battle is told through Tyrion's eyes and he can't witness everything that happens, particularly once he's in the middle of a melee (and his charge was one of the first actions of the battle).

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

Personally I think Roose was just keeping his options open up until the Blackwater. He was perfectly capable of playing a safe game while ensuring that if things went wrong for the North he could ensure the Boltons didn't go down with them. The alliance with the Freys was probably a matter of an insurance policy - ensuring an alliance with a powerful house that had little compunction over betrayal if it was necessary, but up until the Jeyne scandal the Freys were set to be married into a royal family, and unlikely to be up for betraying Robb before that. Roose probably recognised that if he played his cards right, then if the Starks were cast down the Boltons would be in the best position to take their place, and started moving his pieces to position himself for that scenario. 

The night march has seemed odd to me before, but I don't think it was a matter of throwing the battle, I think it was part of a plan to keep Tywin occupied, or even defeat him, and generally in keeping with Robb's battle plan. If Tywin stayed where he was, or marched North while Bolton hung back, he might get word of the Stark forces splitting and double back. I see little benefit to him in throwing the fight. Throwing a battle would be a massive risk. While he did manage to pull back, if his forces had been completely routed or destroyed he could have ended up up the proverbial Green Fork without a paddle. Being in charge of a massive force largely independent of Robb's direct control is a massive benefit to him, helping him forge a power base, and position himself politically, largely unnoticed by Robb. Being in a position to sabotage the war effort later on, after the Blackwater, was key to the Lannister-Frey-plot. You couldn't see any bannerman constantly under the eye of Robb, Catelyn or the Blackfish getting away with half of what Roose did, nor would that be likely if he was just left in charge of a handful of survivors running back to the Twins. 

 

[devilish]

I doubt that Roose Bolton was planning that far ahead. For example it only made sense in killing Selmy.  Selmy is one of the finest knights in Westeros, he’s in his prime and he’s fiercely loyal to the crown. If he escaped than he would have been a great asset to the crown. Also bannermen would be wondering why their children had died to capture him only for him to escape a few days later. The North remembers.  At that point no one knew that the Bold would be bold enough to bend the knee to anyone willing to give him a job like some petty sellsword. If Selmy wanted he may have been a thorn to the king’s backside as recent history had shown.

I sort of agree that Roose was scheming in profiteering from the war however that’s quite normal under such circumstances.  No one fights other people’s war for nothing. As general he was in a position to decide who risks his life the most so its only fair for him to get rid of the noblemen who acted as an obstacle to his plans. King David himself sent his general to the front line in a bid to steal his beautiful wife. If one of the most popular and holiest people in history can do that well no one can blame Roose from doing the same. However that doesn’t necessary mean that he was planning Robb’s campaign. Why would he? Robb was winning, lands were being conquered and that gave plenty of opportunity for the Boltons to become stronger.

I believe that things starting getting messy once Roose acknowledged that this boy would listen to no one and was losing more allies than actually winning them. Robb was stubborn, righteous and had no ambition in changing things around which means that the Boltons had nothing to benefit with him winning. Also the Tyrell-Lannister alliance had basically brought the war to the end and with the North sealed, the risk of them being defeated was ridiculously high. Robb could afford dying for the cause because Bran would take his place. However if Roose died than that would be the end of the line for the Boltons, something Roose couldn’t afford.

I believe that Robb’s defeat is down to Eddard’s inability to read the signs of time and adapt to them. After Robb’s rebellion, the Starks were in the perfect situation to capitalise on a whole new world where they were the King’s best buddies. Eddard could have moved his arse to KL were he would have been given an important role in the small council. That would have given him the golden opportunity to arrange profitable marriages to his sons and daughters and bring wealth and trade to the north in the process, which would have contributed greatly for the North to improve their infrastructure (Moat Cailin is a mess and they have no fleet) and keep their bannermen happy.  I am sure that other Lord Paramounts would have done anything to win favours with the victors. For example prior to Robert’s death I sincerely doubt that Lord Mace Tyrell would have preferred Renly to Robb in terms of marrying his daughter. Robb was Eddard’s (King Rob best buddy) son and heir, he was Edmure’s and Lysa’s nephew and the future king brother in law. Lord Renly on the other hand was 4^th-5^th in line, the Lord Paramount of the Stormlands (not nearly as strong as the North) and was already pretty close to the Tyrells without the need of Margaery to seal the union. Similar unions could have been made with Dorne  (Arrianne and Bran?), the Vale/Westerlands (Sweet Robin/Tyrion and Arya?)  and would have placed them into a much better position to win a war if there ever one

 

 

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 hours ago, devilish said:

I doubt that Roose Bolton was planning that far ahead. For example it only made sense in killing Selmy.  Selmy is one of the finest knights in Westeros, he’s in his prime and he’s fiercely loyal to the crown. If he escaped than he would have been a great asset to the crown. Also bannermen would be wondering why their children had died to capture him only for him to escape a few days later. The North remembers.  At that point no one knew that the Bold would be bold enough to bend the knee to anyone willing to give him a job like some petty sellsword. If Selmy wanted he may have been a thorn to the king’s backside as recent history had shown.

 

I sort of agree that Roose was scheming in profiteering from the war however that’s quite normal under such circumstances.  No one fights other people’s war for nothing. As general he was in a position to decide who risks his life the most so its only fair for him to get rid of the noblemen who acted as an obstacle to his plans. King David himself sent his general to the front line in a bid to steal his beautiful wife. If one of the most popular and holiest people in history can do that well no one can blame Roose from doing the same. However that doesn’t necessary mean that he was planning Robb’s campaign. Why would he? Robb was winning, lands were being conquered and that gave plenty of opportunity for the Boltons to become stronger.

 

I believe that things starting getting messy once Roose acknowledged that this boy would listen to no one and was losing more allies than actually winning them. Robb was stubborn, righteous and had no ambition in changing things around which means that the Boltons had nothing to benefit with him winning. Also the Tyrell-Lannister alliance had basically brought the war to the end and with the North sealed, the risk of them being defeated was ridiculously high. Robb could afford dying for the cause because Bran would take his place. However if Roose died than that would be the end of the line for the Boltons, something Roose couldn’t afford.

 

I believe that Robb’s defeat is down to Eddard’s inability to read the signs of time and adapt to them. After Robb’s rebellion, the Starks were in the perfect situation to capitalise on a whole new world where they were the King’s best buddies. Eddard could have moved his arse to KL were he would have been given an important role in the small council. That would have given him the golden opportunity to arrange profitable marriages to his sons and daughters and bring wealth and trade to the north in the process, which would have contributed greatly for the North to improve their infrastructure (Moat Cailin is a mess and they have no fleet) and keep their bannermen happy.  I am sure that other Lord Paramounts would have done anything to win favours with the victors. For example prior to Robert’s death I sincerely doubt that Lord Mace Tyrell would have preferred Renly to Robb in terms of marrying his daughter. Robb was Eddard’s (King Rob best buddy) son and heir, he was Edmure’s and Lysa’s nephew and the future king brother in law. Lord Renly on the other hand was 4^th-5^th in line, the Lord Paramount of the Stormlands (not nearly as strong as the North) and was already pretty close to the Tyrells without the need of Margaery to seal the union. Similar unions could have been made with Dorne  (Arrianne and Bran?), the Vale/Westerlands (Sweet Robin/Tyrion and Arya?)  and would have placed them into a much better position to win a war if there ever one

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Roose comitted his first act of betrayal before he learned of Robb's marriage to Westerling, and long before he lopped off Karstark's head. As you say, he recognized Robb's weaknesses and paved a path for himself, and when Lannister wed Tyrell and defeated Stannis after Robb lost Winterfell, he negotiated with Tywin and Walder and got what he wanted. 

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

The impression I get is that Roose is your classic opportunist. The Boltons had for centuries been a House that, while a vassal of the Starks, had a long history of opposing them. Jaime points out that like the Freys, the Florents, the Castameres; they were jealous bannermen who were always looking for an opportunity to topple their lords. It seems perfectly natural for someone like Roose to build up his own strength and position himself so that his house survives if the Starks fall, and perhaps even take control if there's an opening. That does not suggest that betrayal was his primary aim all along, just one of many options open to him. 

[devilish]

16 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Roose comitted his first act of betrayal before he learned of Robb's marriage to Westerling, and long before he lopped off Karstark's head. As you say, he recognized Robb's weaknesses and paved a path for himself, and when Lannister wed Tyrell and defeated Stannis after Robb lost Winterfell, he negotiated with Tywin and Walder and got what he wanted. 

Considering his circumstances (last and only heir to the Boltons, lead general of a young stubborn boy who refuse to listen, at the end of an imminent defeat) I can't blame him.

However he should have negotiated a better way out though. 

a- he would advice Robb to participate in the red wedding however Roose would not be involved in it (Roose would be captured as 'prisoner', he would be taken to CR like other hostages and be released alongside other hostages after successfully negotiating their surrender. In that way he would return to Winterfell not as a betrayer but as defeated lord paramount who had negotiated a good deal for the north. 

b- he should have demanded Sansa in marriage. Roose should have persuaded Tywin that no one is capable of controlling the North apart from the Northerners themselves. Therefore it would have been in Tywin's own interest to strengthen his claim on the land as he would be the only chance he had of ensuring the North support

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

2 minutes ago, devilish said:

b- he should have demanded Sansa in marriage. 

Wasn't she already married to Tyrion at this point?