Bolton's Betrayal

[devilish]

Just now, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Wasn't she already married to Tyrion at this point?

I am not sure TBH. 

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

Certainly it was Tyrion who broke the news to her, and he was already married to her when news of RW arrived at KL. Either way, I'm sure the plot was well underway before the marriage actually took place.

It seems from what Tywin says to Tyrion about the marriage to Sansa, that his aim was always to have the option of a Lannister claimant to Winterfell via the marriage alliance with Sansa. He was unwilling to give that up to appease the Tyrells so I doubt he would have done so for the Boltons,

 

[WSmith84]

8 minutes ago, devilish said:

Considering his circumstances (last and only heir to the Boltons, lead general of a young stubborn boy who refuse to listen, at the end of an imminent defeat) I can't blame him.

Where does this impression come from? Robb listens, not always and not always to the right people, but he listens. I can't recall a single time when Robb doesn't listen to Roose; he in fact takes his advice regarding Theon. Sure, he should have listened more. But it's not trueto say he never listened.

[devilish]

15 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Certainly it was Tyrion who broke the news to her, and he was already married to her when news of RW arrived at KL. Either way, I'm sure the plot was well underway before the marriage actually took place.

It seems from what Tywin says to Tyrion about the marriage to Sansa, that his aim was always to have the option of a Lannister claimant to Winterfell via the marriage alliance with Sansa. He was unwilling to give that up to appease the Tyrells so I doubt he would have done so for the Boltons,

 

I think that Lord Roose could have persuaded him especially if he offered Robb's head in exchange. Lets face it, the plan of having Tyrion Lord Paramount of the North or any of his offspring for all that matter would have never worked. The North would have never accepted a Southerner as Lord especially if he came from a family who assassinated their king and if their offspring happened to be imps. Once Tyrion stepped in Winterfell, Sansa would have him arrested.

Tywin could prevent this by keeping Sansa and Tyrion in KL forever and only permit their offspring to go to rule in Winterfell. However here's the catch

a- by that time Lord Bolton would have either been killed (living the North into a mess) or he had consolidated his power up North. He certainly wouldn't be in a mood to surrender his power too easily which means a rebellion. The Lannister armies had never fought so north. 

b- Assuming Lord Tyrion Lannister Stark (lets call him that way) does manage to rally the North around him then he would have the best of two worlds ie the art of diplomacy that KL would give and the Northern armies at his back. He might as well decide to reclaim CR which is after all his by right (his dad is the rightful heir), dragging Lord Edmure (his wife uncle and still pissed off for having been treated that way) and possibly the adult Robert Arryn (his wife's cousin) with him. That means civil war 

Tywin would be better off handling the North to a grateful Roose Bolton. If the Tyrell alliance went to the dogs than the Lannisters would certainly appreciate a powerful North at their side

[devilish]

4 minutes ago, WSmith84 said:

Where does this impression come from? Robb listens, not always and not always to the right people, but he listens. I can't recall a single time when Robb doesn't listen to Roose; he in fact takes his advice regarding Theon. Sure, he should have listened more. But it's not trueto say he never listened.

Im trying to see things from Roose Bolton's perception mate (ie that of a seasoned general whose trying to deal with a boy who is so green that pisses grass). Each no must hurt Roose's pride greatly

[Nittanian]

3 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Personally I think Roose was just keeping his options open up until the Blackwater.

That is my impression as well. In ACOK Arya X, the Freys are despondent after the Blackwater. Robb is publicly supportive of Robb, but internally probably questioning Robb's chances. He sends Glovers, Tallharts, and Karstarks to Duskendale and then decides to go hunt wolves (a symbolic betrayal). Later in the chapter Harrenhal is informed of Jeyne Westerling, which outrages the Freys.

GRRM, however, once stated, "As for Bolton, if you reread all his sections carefully, I think you will see a picture of a man keeping all his options open as long as he could... sniffing the wind, covering his tracks, ready to jump either way... even as late as his supper with Jaime at Harrenhal..."

2 minutes ago, WSmith84 said:

Where does this impression come from? Robb listens, not always and not always to the right people, but he listens. I can't recall a single time when Robb doesn't listen to Roose; he in fact takes his advice regarding Theon. Sure, he should have listened more. But it's not trueto say he never listened.

While Roose and Robb only briefly interact in AGOT and ASOS, the impression might come from the show. Roose is often with Robb in seasons 2 and 3. In "Mhysa", the season 3 finale after the RW, Roose tells Walder, "He ignored my advice at every turn. If he'd been a trifle less arrogant..."

[WSmith84]

13 minutes ago, devilish said:

Im trying to see things from Roose Bolton's perception mate (ie that of a seasoned general whose trying to deal with a boy who is so green that pisses grass). Each no must hurt Roose's pride greatly

But the only 'no' Robb gives him is in regards to the marching order in AGOT. Robb otherwise listens to him, giving him important positions and praising his decisions.

[devilish]

7 minutes ago, WSmith84 said:

But the only 'no' Robb gives him is in regards to the marching order in AGOT. Robb otherwise listens to him, giving him important positions and praising his decisions.

I dont think Roose was too impressed with Robb marrying that noble girl from a minor family

[WSmith84]

7 minutes ago, devilish said:

I dont think Roose was too impressed with Robb marrying that noble girl from a minor family

But that's not an example of Robb not listening. Robb knew that it was a bad idea, but felt that the girl's honour mattered more than the political trouble it would cause. Bolton had already turned his cloak by that point anyway, but still. And Roose wasn't even there to advise Robb when he married Jeyne. And yes, I doubt he was impressed; he probably thought it was as stupid as we do.

[Adam Yozza]

5 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Small point, but Tyrion fights a mounted Northman in the battle, so at least some of the horse were engaged. Also, more generally, while advances from the left and the use of Dreadfort men aren't mentioned, that doesn't mean they weren't used. The entire battle is told through Tyrion's eyes and he can't witness everything that happens, particularly once he's in the middle of a melee (and his charge was one of the first actions of the battle).

I had forgotten about that, but even then, there is no formation to the cavalry. It seems like Roose just threw his men at Tywin and hoped for the best. Tyrion lists the banner's he see's on the battlefield:and we all know that Tyrion wouldn't know the sigil for a house as powerful as the Bolton's. Also (can't remember if it's in the battle or after) Tyrion mentions that "Kevan's center had driven the northerner's into the hills" or something to that effect. If it's during the battle then you make a good point about the PoV but if it's after, when he's hearing about the battle, then it makes no sense for Marbrands role in the fight not to be mentioned if he had engaged the Frey led left in a serious capacity.

Also, thelittledragonthatcould mentioned Robb's fury with Glover for Duskendale. Glover cost him 1/3 of his army for nothing. Which means it was a lot more than 1k, probably closer to 3 or 4k. Bolton had 10,000 northmen after Green Fork; not counting Frey's I don't think; with 500 horse, a third of the foot would be around 3,000.

Robb wasn't angry with Roose because Roose did the job he was assigned, even if he lost more men doing it than necessary. Plus, all Robb has to go off is reports. Bolton engaged Tywin Lannister, kept him busy, lost, retreated in good order. He wasn't there to see it. Also, Roose had taken no damage to his own forces which now made up a quarter of the Northern infantry. Robb couldn't stop the desertion of the Karstark men when they were leaderless and in the same castle as him, how could he have stopped his most powerful bannerman in the field from half a kingdom away. He couldn't afford it, so even if Robb was pissed as hell (we don't know, he might have been and we just didn't see it- he's not a PoV) he would leave Bolton in charge so as to not insult him, and at that point there was no need to doubt Roose' loyalty. We can only be skeptical of his decisions because we see them, Robb does not. I doubt that anyone sent Robb a play by play of every action on the Green Fork. Probably only the basics "We met Tywin in the field, we lost, he couldn't get to Riverrun, we got back to the Twins, we lost (insert rough estimate and names of bannermen)

And I get your point about using the night march to get on top of Tywin, but Tywin doesn't hear about Riverrun until later in the day, quite a while after the battle. If Roose had marched normally, Tywin would have continued moving forwards as he had planned (even longer to get word of Riverrun, and therefore longer to get there) and Roose would have arrived on Tywin probably right as the Lannister's were starting to turn around; giving the North the advantage.

Roose might not have completely turned by then, but he was definitely keeping his options open, and making power plays while he was at it by sending the Hornwood's in to die, followed by other political opponents.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

I think the debate about whether Robb was angry with Roose is a red herring on both sides of this debate to be honest. Robb had just won a stunning victory, and no-one was really expecting Roose to win, just to distract, therefore everything seemed to be going according to plan, so to second guess decisions made in the field (even if he had clear reports), would have been unusual. If Roose's forces had been utterly obliterated then questions would have been asked. His anger at Glover over Duskendale was because it was an obviously stupid decision at a time when Stark fortunes were on the decline. Such decisions are definitely going to incur more anger than minor dubious tactical calls made while sticking largely to the agreed strategy.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

7 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

Roose might not have completely turned by then, but he was definitely keeping his options open, and making power plays while he was at it by sending the Hornwood's in to die, followed by other political opponents.

I agree he was keeping his options open, I think that's just Roose's default setting anyway. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 2/8/2016 at 5:12 PM, thelittledragonthatcould said:

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

11 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Wasn't she already married to Tyrion at this point?

No. He began plottinget and negotiating with Walder and Tywin immediately after the Battle of the Blackwater. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

11 hours ago, devilish said:

Im trying to see things from Roose Bolton's perception mate (ie that of a seasoned general whose trying to deal with a boy who is so green that pisses grass). Each no must hurt Roose's pride greatly

But Robb had stalemate Tywin at that point. When Tywin marched from Harrenhal Robb had the upper hand. That only changed when Petyr brokered the Lannister-Tyrells alliance. At that point, Robb was being celebrated almost universally.

[Lost Melnibonean]

10 hours ago, devilish said:

I dont think Roose was too impressed with Robb marrying that noble girl from a minor family

He only found out about that after he ordered Glover and Tall hart into Tywin's trap.

[devilish]

I think that Robb Stark misinterpreted how things really were. He thought that his bannermen would be just thrilled to leave their homes, their fields and their women to join him in a quest to save his father and his grandfather from annihilation. It was certainly not the case. Many joined him either because they had no choice (they couldn’t afford being labelled oath breakers and lose their lands) or simply as a way to expand their influence and possibly their lands.

Roose must have felt that this whole thing was a parody. See things from his POV. He’s the last living Bolton alive, his bastard son is a time bomb and he was summoned to fight in an open rebellion against the crown just because Eddard decided to confess everything to Cersei. How can this be more stupid? TBF He might have entertained the idea of a war as means to expand his lands or power. Who knows, maybe if Robb did manage to take his revenge and usurp the crown through right of conquest then he might decide to appoint his trusted general Roose as Lord Paramount of the Stormlands or even the Westerlands. Unfortunately Robb made it pretty obvious that once he won the war, he would save his family, return to Winterfell and leave the rich and prosperous lands in the South alone. How lame can this be? On top of that Robb had never given Roose anything to look forward to. He could offer him lands or he could promise him a sister in marriage (Ramsey would be mad to attempt killing the offspring of both Boltons and Starks) but he didn’t. He only expected blind loyalty, right till the end and for no reward whatsoever. That’s something Roose didn’t want (or couldn’t afford) giving

[WSmith84]

3 hours ago, devilish said:

I think that Robb Stark misinterpreted how things really were. He thought that his bannermen would be just thrilled to leave their homes, their fields and their women to join him in a quest to save his father and his grandfather from annihilation. It was certainly not the case. Many joined him either because they had no choice (they couldn’t afford being labelled oath breakers and lose their lands) or simply as a way to expand their influence and possibly their lands.

Well, yeah. That is kind of the job of the bannermen. They respond to their lord's summons and provide him with men. It's how feudalism works. I imagine they were as happy as Tywin's bannermen, or Hoster's, or Mace's etc. In fact, we see many of them are looking forward to the glory of war and are very keen (at least outwardly) on rescuing Ned.

Roose must have felt that this whole thing was a parody. See things from his POV. He’s the last living Bolton alive, his bastard son is a time bomb and he was summoned to fight in an open rebellion against the crown just because Eddard decided to confess everything to Cersei.

Roose didn't know Ned confessed to Cersei. Nobody did, because Cersei didn't tell anyone. She didn't even tell Tyrion when he was Hand. Unless you're referring to his confession at Baelor's Sept, but that was later and may have been (I'm not sure of the exact timeline) after Robb had won the Battle of the Camps and captured Jaime. In either case, Ned's confession doesn't factor in to Roose's decision to march south. And if Roose didn't want to march south, he could have just sent Robb men under the command of a bannerman of his own, citing him being the last Bolton as his reason for staying north. Hell, he could have gone to Winterfell and explained why he was staying and used the opportunity to arrange a marriage alliance with one of the many lords there. Someone must have liked the idea of their grandkids ruling the Dreadfort.

How can this be more stupid? TBF He might have entertained the idea of a war as means to expand his lands or power. Who knows, maybe if Robb did manage to take his revenge and usurp the crown through right of conquest then he might decide to appoint his trusted general Roose as Lord Paramount of the Stormlands or even the Westerlands. Unfortunately Robb made it pretty obvious that once he won the war, he would save his family, return to Winterfell and leave the rich and prosperous lands in the South alone. How lame can this be?

Robb's plan was to march south and rescue his father and sisters. He at no point expressed a desire for conquest. That came later, after Ned's death and two Baratheon claimants to choose from. Even when he was made King, Robb made it clear he only wanted the lands of the North and the Riverlands, nothing beyond. He was perfectly prepared to take plunder though, as we see in the Westerlands (though that wasn't his main goal).

On top of that Robb had never given Roose anything to look forward to. He could offer him lands or he could promise him a sister in marriage (Ramsey would be mad to attempt killing the offspring of both Boltons and Starks) but he didn’t. He only expected blind loyalty, right till the end and for no reward whatsoever. That’s something Roose didn’t want (or couldn’t afford) giving

If Robb gives Roose lands, he has to take them from somewhere. From someone. He has more bannermen than just Roose; why should he reward Roose's loyalty by taking the lands of some other loyal bannerman? If Robb had had some disloyal bannermen, he could have taken some of their lands and bestowed them on Roose, but they all (on the surface, at least) were loyal. And as for marrying one of Robb's sisters... again, what makes Roose more deserving than a Karstark, or a Manderly, or an Umber etc.? Roose fought for Ned Stark without promises of lands or marriages. He already rules on of the strongest castles in the North; giving him more lands would actually seem a bit dangerous.

 

[devilish]

32 minutes ago, WSmith84 said:

 

1- There's a difference though. Tywin was a world class administrator who made everyone in the Westerlands rich. He also orchestrated an advantageous marriage between King Robert and his daughter which resulted in a blondie sitting on the throne. Surely that king would prefer his grandfather's bannermen as opposed to lets say the Glovers. The Lannister bannermen were defending their newly preferential role as opposed to the Boltons who had never enjoyed anything from the Starks relationship with the King and were now forced to participate to yet another rebellion against their will

2- Maybe Roose didn't know the specifics but surely he could deduce what had happened. The King dies and Eddard ends up being arrested for treason after a patethic attempt to try the usurp power from this boy and his mum. Its never nice to hear that your experienced and battlehardened Lord Paramount was outwitted by a woman and child isn't it?

3- That's the problem mate. He gave his bannermen no reason to fight! What do you think Roose should care whether Sansa and Eddard live or die? There's absolutely nothing for him to gain out of it.Robb Stark expected Roose to fight and die on his side without any promises of spoils or lands. He showed no ambition apart from that of saving daddy and sisters and expected Roose to risk the Bolton's legacy for nothing (not even a solid marriage between Starks and Boltons). Can you blame Roose for become a turncloak especially when things started going wrong? On the other hand if Robb planned of actually taking the crown by right of conquest than new opportunities would arise for his bannermen as well.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

22 minutes ago, WSmith84 said:

Roose didn't know Ned confessed to Cersei. Nobody did, because Cersei didn't tell anyone.

I think his point still stands. Roose has no idea that Ned was innocent of the treason he was accused of (we know that he was guilty of a different treason) and nor does Robb for that matter. Yet everyone in the North is expected to stop what they are doing and go to war because Robb does not like the thought of his daddy being guilty. It is actually a ridiculous situation yet Roose and the other Lords have to follow this teenage Lord or suffer the consequences.

26 minutes ago, WSmith84 said:

And if Roose didn't want to march south, he could have just sent Robb men under the command of a bannerman of his own, citing him being the last Bolton as his reason for staying north.

Except that would be a ridiculous decision as his men would be put under the control of reckless idiots like the Greatjon, Glover and Karstark. At least if he goes North he will have some kind of say (even if he is not in command) while a Vassal like Steelshanks Walton will either be ignored as just another lowly commander.

Going North was the best way to make sure that he would be bringing back as many Bolton men as possible. That would be his main motivation in going to war, that the boy Lord does not decimate the Bolton men and make Rooses position considerably weaker in the future.