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Floki of the Ironborn

Battle on the Green Fork casualties

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As we know, Roose Bolton picked a fight with Tywin Lannister, and it was a rout for the Stark forces. As we see from Tyrion's POV, the Northmen are driven back into the Neck with dreadful casualties.

But what gets me is that from what I remember, we never find out the casualties on Tywin's side, except for a few numbers concerning the men Tyrion brought with him.

The Northern forces, bolstered by the Freys, suffer around five thousand casualties. For an army of 16,800, those are devastating numbers. Meanwhile, on the other side, the only casualties on the Lannister sides that are noted is that half the vanguard/left is dead. Gregor commanded 1000 troops, including Tyrion and his tribesmen, and five hundred of those died, including 150 clansmen. We also hear of hundreds of wounded dying during the forced march in the vain effort to catch Robb Stark.

But what does that say for the rest of Tywin's army? I refuse to believe that the North's forces fought so poorly that they were just slaughtered without inflicting any casualties beyond those five hundred. Duskendale resulted in heavy casualties on both sides, and that was an army of just 3000 Northmen on foot against an army many times their size with cavalry to boot. Surely Roose can do just as well with more men and better odds.

And Roose clearly kept his own forces intact by holding them back from the real carnage, so if he didn't want to be questioned for this defeat, there would need to be some real effort shown in the form of Lannister dead.

 

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Tywin, ahd many advantages, kept his forces in good order, and his losses were thus very minor.

I notice you are essentially quoting the wiki here, but the wiki isn't entirely correct.

First: Roose commanded about 18,000 men, and he had 10,000 left when regrouping at the twins so his casualties were actually higher than you think.

Second: Gregor Clegane had command of far more than 1,000 men. Addam Marbrand commanded the right where he had 4,000 men, Gregor commanded the left where he likely had similar numbers. TYwin had 5,000 in reserve, and Kevan had the center presumably with some 6,000 men.

Third: Gregor's 500 casualties is a number without anything to back it up. We know that 150 of Tyrion's 300 clansmen died, and they were in the very thickest part of the fighting as well as first into the fray so it's logical to assume their casualties doesn't represent the entire of Gregor's forces (e.g. Gregor didn't lose half of his men). That said, 500 dead out of 4,000 seem a likely number, or even a bit low.

Mow, as for why Tywin's losses were so small... Well, most losses in medieval battles were inflicted during retreats (when the forces are in disorder and has their back to the enemy), and since Tywin wasn't the one to retreat his forces didn't suffer nearly as many casualties as the Northmen did. That's just simple reality, and shows the importance of quickly deal devestating blows to the enamy (by killing commanders or overwhelming with a cavalry charge, etc).

Overall I imagine that Tywin lost at least 1,000 men at the Green Fork, mainly from the left. This didn't matter much to him in the long run though, since survivors from the Battle of the Camp later joined up with him and possibly boosted his forces to a greater amount than it ever had been before. Tywins forces are said to be twice Edmure's number at the Battle of the Fords, and Edmure had 11,000 there meaning Tywin might've had as many as 22,000. This is further supported by Tywin's army being said to number 20,000 at King's Landing, after the Battle fo the Fords and the Battle of the Blackwater. Overall it's very hard to pinpoint how many died in these separate battles though. We know some died at the Green Fork - but we also know survivors from Riverrun joined with him afterwards and since we don't have their numbers we can't say. We can only draw the conclusion that Tywin managed to keep the casualties in his army to an absolute minimum.

You are right about Roose. He probably didn't delibarately throw the Battle of the Green Fork. It was a clear win-win situation for him (though not for the North). He marches overnight, and if he manages to take Tywin by surprise he wins: a victory for him. But even if he don't manage to take Tywin by surprise and win the battle, he has still arrayed his forced in a manner that will inflcit the heaviest casualties to his immediate rivals in the North, allowing him to give a good showing before retreating, while vastly increasiing his own influence. Tywin is a very good commander though and clearly showed he isn't taken by surpirse our outmanouvered that easily (in tactics at least). He isn't as brilliant as Robb or Stannis, but he is definitly very reliable. Kevan, Addam good as well, and Gregor has his clear strenghts. Furthermore, his forces were well-rested, larger than Roose's, likely better equipped, and had far more cavalry. Roose's forces were tired however, and almost lacked cavalry.

As for how Robett Glover and Helman Tallhart could inflict such damage on Randyll Tarly... well, I suppose they were simply that good commanders, or perhaps the Northmen fought like animals... I don't know, we have to little information.

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In light of the fact that the bulk of Tywin's men effectively seem to have vanished into thin air after the Blackwater. Yeah, there were casualties and defections during the forced march after the Green Fork, and then there were additional losses at Harrenhal, the loss of the garrison there, the defection of the Brave Companions, disappearing foragers, losses during the failed attempt to cross the Trident, etc. but Tywin should still have a pretty huge host when he finally showed up at the Blackwater.

But they aren't there. The siege of Riverrun is done by a new army raised in the West, and during ASoS Tywin doesn't send any of his men back home. The numbers of the men Tommen and Cersei finally see off in AFfC don't add up with those that supposedly arrived with Tywin at KL in ACoK.

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Sorry, where does the 5000 man loss on the Northern side come from?

In my recollection the losses were less than that. I don't think we are ever given precise numbers for the losses on either side. Roose withdraws in good order, and prevents a slaughter of his forces as a consequence. I always pictured the losses in the 2000-4000 range.

There were further losses and desertions between then and when he rejoins Robb at the Red Wedding.

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20 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

In light of the fact that the bulk of Tywin's men effectively seem to have vanished into thin air after the Blackwater. Yeah, there were casualties and defections during the forced march after the Green Fork, and then there were additional losses at Harrenhal, the loss of the garrison there, the defection of the Brave Companions, disappearing foragers, losses during the failed attempt to cross the Trident, etc. but Tywin should still have a pretty huge host when he finally showed up at the Blackwater.

But they aren't there. The siege of Riverrun is done by a new army raised in the West, and during ASoS Tywin doesn't send any of his men back home. The numbers of the men Tommen and Cersei finally see off in AFfC don't add up with those that supposedly arrived with Tywin at KL in ACoK.

The disappearance of Tywin's 20,000 strong host is adressed in AFFC. Cersei dismissed them and sent them back to the Westerlands. She just kept ~3,000 on hand, 1,000 to march with Jaime into the Riverlands, the other 2,000 to sail with Paxter Redwyne to take Dragonstone.

 

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Yeah, but aren't be given a much lower number on the troops that are sent back home?

There is no indication that 20,000 Lannister men were in the city and/or camped outside throughout ASoS.

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2 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, but aren't be given a much lower number on the troops that are sent back home?

There is no indication that 20,000 Lannister men were in the city and/or camped outside throughout ASoS.

Tyrion directly states that his father has 20,000 men at King's Landing when first meeting Oberyn Martell.

7 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Sorry, where does the 5000 man loss on the Northern side come from?

In my recollection the losses were less than that. I don't think we are ever given precise numbers for the losses on either side. Roose withdraws in good order, and prevents a slaughter of his forces as a consequence. I always pictured the losses in the 2000-4000 range.

There were further losses and desertions between then and when he rejoins Robb at the Red Wedding.

Roose had ~18,000 when facing Tywin, and later had 10,000 after he'd regropued at the Twins. It's safe to assume his casualties at the Green Fork were massive.

Edited by The Holy Goat

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Ah, okay. Then I guess George just failed to show us all those guys. They are nowhere to be seen. The idea to discharge them while the Tyrells were still there really makes no sense. It is mind-boggling that even Cersei could be that stupid.

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But then, Tywin having about 20,000 men in KL in ASoS suggests quite a lot of losses in the Riverlands in light of the fact that he reunited with the survivors from the Battle at the Camps later on.

Whether those losses occurred at the Green Fork or later isn't clear because we don't get a full list of Tywin's losses at the Green Fork.

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45 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

In light of the fact that the bulk of Tywin's men effectively seem to have vanished into thin air after the Blackwater. Yeah, there were casualties and defections during the forced march after the Green Fork, and then there were additional losses at Harrenhal, the loss of the garrison there, the defection of the Brave Companions, disappearing foragers, losses during the failed attempt to cross the Trident, etc. but Tywin should still have a pretty huge host when he finally showed up at the Blackwater.

But they aren't there. The siege of Riverrun is done by a new army raised in the West, and during ASoS Tywin doesn't send any of his men back home. The numbers of the men Tommen and Cersei finally see off in AFfC don't add up with those that supposedly arrived with Tywin at KL in ACoK.

Tywin had around 20k at the battle of Blackwater (it is not really clear if this was before or after the battle).

"Half a million people stink more than three hundred, you'll find. Do you smell the gold cloaks? There are near five thousand of them. My father's own sworn swords must account for another twenty thousand. And then there are the roses. Roses smell so sweet, don't they? Especially when there are so many of them. Fifty, sixty, seventy thousand roses, in the city or camped outside it, I can't really say how many are left, but there's more than I care to count, anyway."

Of that number some went with Clegane and were involved with the Battle at Duskendale, a force went with Loras to Dragonstone and another force with Jaime to the Riverlands.

Now before Jaime left for the Riverlands there was two more departures in AFFC.

 

The rest of the westermen had gone back to their wives and children, to rebuild their homes, plant their fields, and bring in one last harvest.

Jaime does not really mention when they were sent home it may have been recently or while Tywin was still alive. As there was a lot going on towards the end of ASOS it is pretty reasonable that he was not concerned about them, it is only when Tommen is with the troops does it come up in Jaime's thoughts. 

There is also another batch that went home with Tywin's funeral procession to the West, though this was only around 500.

And surely Foote can not be the only Westerland Lord who received lands.

Varys had lists. Forty-seven lesser lordlings and six hundred nineteen knights had lost their lives beneath the fiery heart of Stannis and his Lord of Light, along with several thousand common men-at-arms. Traitors all, their heirs were disinherited, their lands and castles granted to those who had proved more loyal.

 

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28 minutes ago, The Holy Goat said:

Tyrion directly states that his father has 20,000 men at King's Landing when first meeting Oberyn Martell.

Roose had ~18,000 when facing Tywin, and later had 10,000 after he'd regropued at the Twins. It's safe to assume his casualties at the Green Fork were massive.

Many of those missing 8,000 will have been stragglers or deserters, rather than casualties 

 

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2 hours ago, SeanF said:

Many of those missing 8,000 will have been stragglers or deserters, rather than casualties 

 

So where are they? Whether they ran into forces loyal to Stark/Tully or Lannister, or whether they went north and ran into the Reeds, we should have heard something about them by now.

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36 minutes ago, King Floki of the Ironborn said:

So where are they? Whether they ran into forces loyal to Stark/Tully or Lannister, or whether they went north and ran into the Reeds, we should have heard something about them by now.

They went home or became the sort of broken men that Meribald talked about, with quite a few probably dying at some point.

They would be avoiding Stark and Lannister forces for fear of punishment, and the Reeds don't police random travelers moving up and down the Kingsroad.

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Had to go back to my old army sizes thread to find the relevant numbers but here they are: depending on whether you take Manderly's 1,500 to be part of Robb's figure of 18,000 at Moat Caillin, Roose had either 17,700 or 16,200 men before the Green Fork. 

According to Edmure he had only 10,000 as of ACOK, so he lost in the region of 6-8,000 on the Green Fork and in the aftermath. This seems very high considering none of Tywin's army pursued to any real extent, but we know Roose's strength beforehand and we know his strength after, so there really isn't much ambiguity. Also the number of commanders killed or captured confirms that the battle itself was a devastating defeat.

6 hours ago, The Holy Goat said:

Second: Gregor Clegane had command of far more than 1,000 men. Addam Marbrand commanded the right where he had 4,000 men, Gregor commanded the left where he likely had similar numbers. TYwin had 5,000 in reserve, and Kevan had the center presumably with some 6,000 men.

The text indicated that the left was far smaller than the right, this makes sense because it was intended to mostly get slaughtered, and because they didn't have to protect the infantry from flanking, since the river did that.

Also if we assume Gregor had as many men as Addam, and his entire command is mounted, as described, then Tywin is looking at a 1:1 cavalry to infantry ratio, for his army, and a 2:3 ratio for the initial invasion force, which is ridiculous when you consider that every one else had about 1/4 cavalry.

 

Since we can be fairly confident Tywin didn't start off with many more than 20,000 and couldn't have recruited very many more whilst in the Riverlands the only real explanation is that Tywin simply never mentioned his losses to anyone outside his top commanders.

No one is counting Tywin's army other than him, and since his losses were over such a long period of time and over such a large area no one is tracking those either. By maintaining that his army size is still 20,000 when it is actually several thousand less than this he makes himself seem more impressive militarily, makes the Westerland army seem invincible and makes him seem less reliant upon Mace Tyrell's support.

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8 hours ago, King Floki of the Ironborn said:

We also hear of hundreds of wounded dying during the forced march in the vain effort to catch Robb Stark.

But what does that say for the rest of Tywin's army? I refuse to believe that the North's forces fought so poorly that they were just slaughtered without inflicting any casualties beyond those five hundred. Duskendale resulted in heavy casualties on both sides, and that was an army of just 3000 Northmen on foot against an army many times their size with cavalry to boot. Surely Roose can do just as well with more men and better odds.

And Roose clearly kept his own forces intact by holding them back from the real carnage, so if he didn't want to be questioned for this defeat, there would need to be some real effort shown in the form of Lannister dead.

 

We are never told that Tywin lost hundreds due to the forced march. Tyrion only says a few every day. But we don't know for how many days. He did not say "dozens" or "scores", and it's not a significant distance from the site of the battle to the inn. Even were it 20 a day, it's barely a hundred or so overall. It's not a month long treck if they were taking their time, and they were going as quickly as possible.

At Duskendale we do not know how large Tarly's host was. Perhaps 3-1, perhaps closer to 2-1. They suffered losses, but not as many as the Northmen. And Roose can tell Robb what he likes. He gave battle, the right flank shattered, the left took a hit from 4,000 armored lances, and then the center, after being hit with arrows, crumbles as it tries to retreat. He does not have to justify not throwing his reserves into a clusterfuck only to lose more men. Especially considering that Robb can't care less, he only wanted a distraction and made no further use of his foot. Were it someone else in command he might have asked Roose what he was thinking with his planning for the battle, but that is not something else.

6 hours ago, The Holy Goat said:

I notice you are essentially quoting the wiki here, but the wiki isn't entirely correct.

1. First: Roose commanded about 18,000 men, and he had 10,000 left when regrouping at the twins so his casualties were actually higher than you think.

2. Second: Gregor Clegane had command of far more than 1,000 men. Addam Marbrand commanded the right where he had 4,000 men, Gregor commanded the left where he likely had similar numbers. TYwin had 5,000 in reserve, and Kevan had the center presumably with some 6,000 men.

3. Third: Gregor's 500 casualties is a number without anything to back it up. We know that 150 of Tyrion's 300 clansmen died, and they were in the very thickest part of the fighting as well as first into the fray so it's logical to assume their casualties doesn't represent the entire of Gregor's forces (e.g. Gregor didn't lose half of his men). That said, 500 dead out of 4,000 seem a likely number, or even a bit low.

Mow, as for why Tywin's losses were so small... Well, most losses in medieval battles were inflicted during retreats (when the forces are in disorder and has their back to the enemy), and since Tywin wasn't the one to retreat his forces didn't suffer nearly as many casualties as the Northmen did. That's just simple reality, and shows the importance of quickly deal devestating blows to the enamy (by killing commanders or overwhelming with a cavalry charge, etc).

4. Overall I imagine that Tywin lost at least 1,000 men at the Green Fork, mainly from the left. This didn't matter much to him in the long run though, since survivors from the Battle of the Camp later joined up with him and possibly boosted his forces to a greater amount than it ever had been before. Tywins forces are said to be twice Edmure's number at the Battle of the Fords, and Edmure had 11,000 there meaning Tywin might've had as many as 22,000. This is further supported by Tywin's army being said to number 20,000 at King's Landing, after the Battle fo the Fords and the Battle of the Blackwater. Overall it's very hard to pinpoint how many died in these separate battles though. We know some died at the Green Fork - but we also know survivors from Riverrun joined with him afterwards and since we don't have their numbers we can't say. We can only draw the conclusion that Tywin managed to keep the casualties in his army to an absolute minimum.

5. As for how Robett Glover and Helman Tallhart could inflict such damage on Randyll Tarly... well, I suppose they were simply that good commanders, or perhaps the Northmen fought like animals... I don't know, we have to little information.

The wiki has seen a few changes since I was last active, but it's not that far off.

1. Robb has 18,000 men at Moat Cailin, and is later joined by Frey with another 4,000 men. 200 remain at Moat Cailin (not in the books, but Ned asks Cat to send 200 bowmen and Robb makes mention of leaving bowmen behind, so it is easy to assume that a realistic garrison for Moat Cailing is ~200 men), and 800 at the Twins (400 Freys, and 400 Northmen). Robb's host is down to 21,000 men. At the Whispering Woods Robb has ~6,000 horse, but that is after leaving a tenth of his horse with Roose, and after being joined by Local Riverlords such as Mallister. Robb had 3,000 cavalry at Winterfell out of 12,000 men. If he has 4,500 at Moat Cailin because he had increased his host by 50%, he should have ~13,500 Northmen in his foot. He takes 2,600 Frey foot and leaves behind 400 of his own foot, thus increasing his foot to a total of ~15,700 footmen. With 1,000 Frey horse he has ~5,500 cavalry. He leaves ~550 with Roose (a tenth of his horse), thus giving Roose a total of ~16,250. These figures grow a bit if we assume that Manderly's force was counted after Robb tells Cat that he has 18,000 men. With another ~250 horse and ~1,250 foot, Roose would have a total of ~575 horse, and 16,950 foot, for a total of ~17,525 men. The Wiki likely forgets that Moat Cailin also has some foot in it, and assumes the largest possible figure by assuming that Robb did not count the Manderlys.

So total Northern host is ~16,250-17,525 men on the Green Fork.

2. Gregor is said to have commanded a weak left, and after he shouted the advance, "a thousand" shouted after him. He was not meant to be strong, and if you give him 5,000 men in a 100% mounted flank, you are giving the Lannisters an army of 12,800 cavalry and ~7,500 foot, which does not work with Marting's usual 3/4 infantry, 1/4 horse. The Lannisters have more horse than usual, but not more than half of thier host.

3. We know that the Clansmen were in that flank, and worse than some, better than some experiance wise. The rest include farmers with the farm horse and sellswords and such. I went with an even split for the flank. It was meant to fail, and through Gregor's sheer rage managed to crush the entire Northern right (west) flank. 50% casualties sounds fair for that one.

4. I doubt that Tywin was joined by many from Jaime's host, considering that 2/3rds were positioned where retreat was only possible to the west, and the southern host also retreated that way. If Edmure has 11,000 men and Tywin has 19-20k, Tywin can still be said to have roughly double his men. 

5. We are never said how many casualties the Northmen inflicted on Tarly, and that the Northmen lost significantly more than the enemy. Tarly therfore could not have lost even an identical number, let alone more than 3,000 men. Several hundreds? Sure. But it did not sound like he lost a thousand or two, and let's not forget that not all the Northmen died. Despite Tarly having the enemy commander throwing soldiers to die and telling him everything he needs to know, the trap still allowed some to escape, as evident by them being mentioned as being chased and hunted down well after the battle.

 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

In light of the fact that the bulk of Tywin's men effectively seem to have vanished into thin air after the Blackwater. Yeah, there were casualties and defections during the forced march after the Green Fork, and then there were additional losses at Harrenhal, the loss of the garrison there, the defection of the Brave Companions, disappearing foragers, losses during the failed attempt to cross the Trident, etc. but Tywin should still have a pretty huge host when he finally showed up at the Blackwater.

But they aren't there. The siege of Riverrun is done by a new army raised in the West, and during ASoS Tywin doesn't send any of his men back home. The numbers of the men Tommen and Cersei finally see off in AFfC don't add up with those that supposedly arrived with Tywin at KL in ACoK.

Tywin's host did not vanish, it went home. Say that he lost 1,000 men on the Green Fork, say that he lost 2,000 more on the Fords and at Harrenhal and from the different raids, and say that he lost 500 more on the Blackwater (and even that is a big question, considering that Tywin could only have arrived on the north bank and after there were few Stannis troops left, and even some of them clearly surrendered instead of going down fighting as Celtigar and his men were such). That still gives Tywin ~16,500 men, something that Tyrion can round up to 20,000 men and not sound like he is blowing things way out of proprtions. A few, mostly freeriders and sellswords, go with Tarly to Duskendale, and after that you have most sent home after the Red Wedding, those ~350 who went to escort Tywin's body to the Westerlands, 2,000 men go to Dragonstone, Jaime takes barely 1,000 men to Riverrun due to the lack of need (which he calls out), and of those there are the 86 of the Holy Hundred who were in Stannis' host up until the Blackwater. The Lannisters were making use of allies to do as much of the heavy lifting as possible. They have bled in the war, but not as much as people think. The Siege of Riverrun just shows how clearly dominant the Lannister rule is, they can afford to send nearly the entire army back home and make use nearly entirely of allies to fight for them. With the Ironborn avoiding raiding the West, and the Riverlands shattered, allies to the North and south, there is no need to keep an army in the field.

4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Sorry, where does the 5000 man loss on the Northern side come from?

In my recollection the losses were less than that. I don't think we are ever given precise numbers for the losses on either side. Roose withdraws in good order, and prevents a slaughter of his forces as a consequence. I always pictured the losses in the 2000-4000 range.

There were further losses and desertions between then and when he rejoins Robb at the Red Wedding.

Mostly calculations of how many men were on the Green Fork in the Northern host (~16,250-17,525), with anchors we need to use for minimal number that had to survive, plus Edmure's remark on Roose only having ~10,000 men after the battle. 

According to Edmure, Roose is left with 10,000. He is reinforced with 400 Northmen from the Twins to make 10,400 when Edmure orders him to march south and take Harrenhal. He looses 3,000 in Duskendale after this (left with 7,400). He loses at least 700 Karstarks after Catelyn releases Jaime*, and 200 men to accompany Jaime to KL. He loses 2,000 on the Ruby Ford to Gregor and leaves a guard of 600 men. That gives him 3,900 men, but he tells Robb that he only has 3,500 when he meets him, so overall he should have lost another ~400 men somewhere in between all of these, or simply that by "10,000" Edmure was rounding up ~9,600. This is the number for the Northern foot, not the Frey. Even if those 400 left in a fury after Robb broke the alliance, the Freys have significantly more than 400 foot, they send ~1,400 men north with Roose, and have a similar amount laying siege ro Riverrun, not to mention that the Twins still have a garrison to remember. It is likely that the Freys were positioned in reserve on the Green Fork, and so suffered light losses in comparison, but still leave them enough men to deal with two theaters.

So, since there were 2,600 Freys that we are unclear about in the battle, we can at least say that the Northern losses were 3,100-3,500 men (depending if the extra 400 men were lost in this battle or not). The Freys lost say, 200-500 men, giving a total casualties figure of ~3,300-4,000 men. 5,000+ simply does not work with the numbers that the host needs to have later. At most this can increase to ~4,500 tops if we say that the Freys suffered greatly and recruited like mad after this. 

Now if anyone is wondering why would Edmure only count Northern foot Roose's host, it's simply. He is the lord paramount of the Riverlands, he is the one with authority here. The Freys are not Roose' men, they are Riverlanders. When Edmure numers Roose' host it is positioned in the Twins, where Edmure counts them as his own. He may have 11,000 men who can reach the Battle of the Fords in ~3 days, but that is not the sum total of his power, to that one needs to add the Freys and anyone else who could not be there on time.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But then, Tywin having about 20,000 men in KL in ASoS suggests quite a lot of losses in the Riverlands in light of the fact that he reunited with the survivors from the Battle at the Camps later on.

Whether those losses occurred at the Green Fork or later isn't clear because we don't get a full list of Tywin's losses at the Green Fork.

Tywin could not have linked up with most of the men from the Camps, simply because the only camp that was positioned to allow great numbers to flee east was specifically stated to have gone back to the Westerlands. Tywin had fewer than 20,000 men in King's Landing, but the only time Jaime comes across men from his own host is when he meets them in the Siege of Riverrun after Prester takes a token force to join the Freys there.

 

 

 

TL:DR

The North lost ~3,300 (realistic) - 4,000 (maximum) men on the Green Fork. The Lannisters 500-1,000, including ~150 Vale Clansmen.

Edited by Nyrhex

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31 minutes ago, Nyrhex said:

.

So, since there were 2,600 Freys that we are unclear about in the battle, we can at least say that the Northern losses were 3,100-3,500 men (depending if the extra 400 men were lost in this battle or not). The Freys lost say, 200-500 men, giving a total casualties figure of ~3,300-4,000 men. 5,000+ simply does not work with the numbers that the host needs to have later. At most this can increase to ~4,500 tops if we say that the Freys suffered greatly and recruited like mad after this. 

Now if anyone is wondering why would Edmure only count Northern foot Roose's host, it's simply. He is the lord paramount of the Riverlands, he is the one with authority here. The Freys are not Roose' men, they are Riverlanders. When Edmure numers Roose' host it is positioned in the Twins, where Edmure counts them as his own. He may have 11,000 men who can reach the Battle of the Fords in ~3 days, but that is not the sum total of his power, to that one needs to add the Freys and anyone else who could not be there on time.

 

According to Arya, Aenys Frey commands 1,500 Frey soldiers at Harrenhal, putting his losses at 1,100. Which seems roughly consistent with the rest of Roose's army.

The Frey's really have to be part of the 10,000 figure, otherwise the numbers don't work: we are told that 1/3rd of Roose's host is lost at the Ruby Ford, and 3,000 Northmen are sent to Duskendale, meaning that there were 9,000 Northmen total, subtract Tallhart's 400 and add Aenys' 1,500 and you get 10,100, which is very close to the figure Edmure gives. If we assume that the Frey's weren't part of this number then there are 7,500 men at the Ruby Ford, and thus 1,000 who are unaccounted for.

 

Edit: I didn't initially notice your calculations included Karstark desertion, I tend to be cautious about what happened to the Karstark infantry with Roose, given that he gives 3 conflicting accounts (that they go with Harrion to Duskendale, that they are searching for Jaime southwest of Harrenhal, and that they are with him at the Twins) that seem to be largely mutually exclusive, though I agree that your calculation also works.

Edited by Ser Arthur Hightower

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8 hours ago, King Floki of the Ironborn said:

As we know, Roose Bolton picked a fight with Tywin Lannister, and it was a rout for the Stark forces. As we see from Tyrion's POV, the Northmen are driven back into the Neck with dreadful casualties.

But what gets me is that from what I remember, we never find out the casualties on Tywin's side, except for a few numbers concerning the men Tyrion brought with him.

The Northern forces, bolstered by the Freys, suffer around five thousand casualties. For an army of 16,800, those are devastating numbers. Meanwhile, on the other side, the only casualties on the Lannister sides that are noted is that half the vanguard/left is dead. Gregor commanded 1000 troops, including Tyrion and his tribesmen, and five hundred of those died, including 150 clansmen. We also hear of hundreds of wounded dying during the forced march in the vain effort to catch Robb Stark.

But what does that say for the rest of Tywin's army? I refuse to believe that the North's forces fought so poorly that they were just slaughtered without inflicting any casualties beyond those five hundred. Duskendale resulted in heavy casualties on both sides, and that was an army of just 3000 Northmen on foot against an army many times their size with cavalry to boot. Surely Roose can do just as well with more men and better odds.

And Roose clearly kept his own forces intact by holding them back from the real carnage, so if he didn't want to be questioned for this defeat, there would need to be some real effort shown in the form of Lannister dead.

 

It was not a route. Roose retreated in good order an Tywin failed to purse, falling back on the Ruby Ford after realizing that Robb was not there. 

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1 hour ago, Ser Arthur Hightower said:

According to Arya, Aenys Frey commands 1,500 Frey soldiers at Harrenhal, putting his losses at 1,100. Which seems roughly consistent with the rest of Roose's army.

The Frey's really have to be part of the 10,000 figure, otherwise the numbers don't work: we are told that 1/3rd of Roose's host is lost at the Ruby Ford, and 3,000 Northmen are sent to Duskendale, meaning that there were 9,000 Northmen total, subtract Tallhart's 400 and add Aenys' 1,500 and you get 10,100, which is very close to the figure Edmure gives. If we assume that the Frey's weren't part of this number then there are 7,500 men at the Ruby Ford, and thus 1,000 who are unaccounted for.

 

Edit: I didn't initially notice your calculations included Karstark desertion, I tend to be cautious about what happened to the Karstark infantry with Roose, given that he gives 3 conflicting accounts (that they go with Harrion to Duskendale, that they are searching for Jaime southwest of Harrenhal, and that they are with him at the Twins) that seem to be largely mutually exclusive, though I agree that your calculation also works.

Good catch with the Freys. This indeed upgrades the losses from the battle to a minimum ~4,200 men, with the new upper limit being ~4,600. 

Roose lost a third of his men on the Trident. He leaves another ~600 men, and arrives to the Twins with 3,500 men. That makes for a total host of ~6,000-6,150 (since ~4,100 is the ~2/3rds that crossed in time). The ~1,500 Freys are not included in this figure since they had already left Harrenhal before the Trident made it nearly impossible to cross, and are already back at the Twins.

The Karstarks are indeed difficult to calculate. Roose says he gave all of them to Harrion, but still has Karstark men with him for the Red Wedding. There were only 300 Karstark horse in AGOT, but there are said to be ~1,000 Karstark men looking for Jaime. Considering that Roose sends Harrion with Glover and Tallhart to Duskendale shortly after the Blackwater, but before Jaime is released, either the ~1,000 figure is wrong, or Bolton did not send all Karstarks with Harrion. I went with the latter but if it was the former:

~6,000-6,150 Northmen and 1,500 Freys return fron Harrenhal. 3,000 Northmen are lost for Duskendale. 200 Northmen escort Jaime. Subtract the 400 garrison men still not included = 10,300-10,450. Close enough to Edmure's 10,000 men. 

From ~16,250-17,525 to 10,300-10,450 we are talking about 5,950-7,225 losses.

So, either we are talking about a scenario where the Karstarks are not fully destroyed both at the Green Fork and then at Duskendale (and count the Freys aside from the main host), where the North suffers ~4,200-4,600 losses, or we are talking about a scenario where they were and we count the Freys with Roose and the total losses for the Green Fork are 5,950-7,225. Massive losses by a medieval scale. 

 

 

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5 hours ago, SeanF said:

Many of those missing 8,000 will have been stragglers or deserters, rather than casualties 

 

Casualties generally include stragglers, deserters and wounded, not just the dead.

2 hours ago, Ser Arthur Hightower said:

The text indicated that the left was far smaller than the right, this makes sense because it was intended to mostly get slaughtered, and because they didn't have to protect the infantry from flanking, since the river did that.

Also if we assume Gregor had as many men as Addam, and his entire command is mounted, as described, then Tywin is looking at a 1:1 cavalry to infantry ratio, for his army, and a 2:3 ratio for the initial invasion force, which is ridiculous when you consider that every one else had about 1/4 cavalry.

 

Since we can be fairly confident Tywin didn't start off with many more than 20,000 and couldn't have recruited very many more whilst in the Riverlands the only real explanation is that Tywin simply never mentioned his losses to anyone outside his top commanders.

No one is counting Tywin's army other than him, and since his losses were over such a long period of time and over such a large area no one is tracking those either. By maintaining that his army size is still 20,000 when it is actually several thousand less than this he makes himself seem more impressive militarily, makes the Westerland army seem invincible and makes him seem less reliant upon Mace Tyrell's support.

I suppose it's fully possible that Kevan had a much larger force, but we have to remember that Tywin had a huge amount of armored horse in his army (Robb even lamshades it). 4,000 under Addam, 300 under Kevan, 2,500 under Tywin (all of them heavy horse) and presumably some under under Gregor. It's bound to end up on a 7,000 heavy cavalry. And that's not counting the light cavalry of Gregor's left which might be another 1,000. So the horse to foot ratio was very high in his army. Jaime meanwhile had some 3,000 horse and 12,000 foot, so all in all it would be a 2:5 ratio for the entire Lannister force, wouldn't it. You're probably right about Gregor's force not being the size of Addam's though.

We know survivors from Jaime's army join up with him though, and it's fully possible that Forley Prester sent some to boost his force at Harrenhal, so the talk about him having 20,000 is not farfetched

2 hours ago, Nyrhex said:

The wiki has seen a few changes since I was last active, but it's not that far off.

1. Robb has 18,000 men at Moat Cailin, and is later joined by Frey with another 4,000 men. 200 remain at Moat Cailin (not in the books, but Ned asks Cat to send 200 bowmen and Robb makes mention of leaving bowmen behind, so it is easy to assume that a realistic garrison for Moat Cailing is ~200 men), and 800 at the Twins (400 Freys, and 400 Northmen). Robb's host is down to 21,000 men. At the Whispering Woods Robb has ~6,000 horse, but that is after leaving a tenth of his horse with Roose, and after being joined by Local Riverlords such as Mallister. Robb had 3,000 cavalry at Winterfell out of 12,000 men. If he has 4,500 at Moat Cailin because he had increased his host by 50%, he should have ~13,500 Northmen in his foot. He takes 2,600 Frey foot and leaves behind 400 of his own foot, thus increasing his foot to a total of ~15,700 footmen. With 1,000 Frey horse he has ~5,500 cavalry. He leaves ~550 with Roose (a tenth of his horse), thus giving Roose a total of ~16,250. These figures grow a bit if we assume that Manderly's force was counted after Robb tells Cat that he has 18,000 men. With another ~250 horse and ~1,250 foot, Roose would have a total of ~575 horse, and 16,950 foot, for a total of ~17,525 men. The Wiki likely forgets that Moat Cailin also has some foot in it, and assumes the largest possible figure by assuming that Robb did not count the Manderlys.

So total Northern host is ~16,250-17,525 men on the Green Fork.

2. Gregor is said to have commanded a weak left, and after he shouted the advance, "a thousand" shouted after him. He was not meant to be strong, and if you give him 5,000 men in a 100% mounted flank, you are giving the Lannisters an army of 12,800 cavalry and ~7,500 foot, which does not work with Marting's usual 3/4 infantry, 1/4 horse. The Lannisters have more horse than usual, but not more than half of thier host.

3. We know that the Clansmen were in that flank, and worse than some, better than some experiance wise. The rest include farmers with the farm horse and sellswords and such. I went with an even split for the flank. It was meant to fail, and through Gregor's sheer rage managed to crush the entire Northern right (west) flank. 50% casualties sounds fair for that one.

4. I doubt that Tywin was joined by many from Jaime's host, considering that 2/3rds were positioned where retreat was only possible to the west, and the southern host also retreated that way. If Edmure has 11,000 men and Tywin has 19-20k, Tywin can still be said to have roughly double his men. 

5. We are never said how many casualties the Northmen inflicted on Tarly, and that the Northmen lost significantly more than the enemy. Tarly therfore could not have lost even an identical number, let alone more than 3,000 men. Several hundreds? Sure. But it did not sound like he lost a thousand or two, and let's not forget that not all the Northmen died. Despite Tarly having the enemy commander throwing soldiers to die and telling him everything he needs to know, the trap still allowed some to escape, as evident by them being mentioned as being chased and hunted down well after the battle.

1, Robb had 18,000 without Manderly's 1,500. This is supported when they reach the Twins and Theon says he has five times Frey's number (4,000 * 5 = 20,000). Reek also recalls that "near enough 20,000" marched south with Robb. So he actually had slightly below 24,000 men after joining with Frey, and some 200 at Moat Cailin. So perhaps 23,000 marched from the Twins. I reckon 17,000 foot and some 600 horse marched with Bolton, 5,400 horse marched with Stark. Mallister joined Stark with 600 horse afterwards boosting it to 6,000.

2, I already adressed this before quoting you, and I realized my mistake. I now guess the Lannisters had some 8,000 horse and 12,000 foot in Tywin's host. 4,000 rode under Addam, 2,500 rode under Tywin, 300 rode with Kevan. All heavy horse, 6,700 together. And then Gregor and his men-at-arms could be added to that, along with some of the sellswords and hedge knightswho rode with him. So perhaps 7,000 heavy horse all in all. Then there's the light cavalry under Gregor, sellswords, hedge knights, mercenaries, smallfolk, clansmen etc. These might contitue close to a thousand.

3, I can concede that.

4, Yet the very man who arrived at Tywin's camp to tell the story was position in the camp between the Red Fork and the Tumblestone. And he specifically mentions that he had talked to other survivors from the same camp so he was probably not alone in joining Tywin. Then there's also the fact that Forley retreated with 4,000 men. Yet Golden Tooth hardly requires 4,000 to hold it and considering the small force Prester has when he marches at Riverrun with Daven (1,000) one has to wonder where the rest went. Some went to stiffen Stafford Lannisters ill-fated host, but I find it likely that Prester split his host and sent some to Tywin along with survivors from the other camps.

5, Varys said that losses were heavy on both sides though. While Tarly certainly didn't suffer as horribly as Glover and Tallhart, I wouldn't be surprised if 1,000 bit the dust.

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One thing is clear. Roose was a disaster as a commander for the North. He bled men like it was going out of fashion. Of course, in hindsight it seems likely that most of it was deliberate, in order to weaken his rival Northern lords in preparation for an attempted Bolton power grab when he got back in North.

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