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Floki of the Ironborn

Battle on the Green Fork casualties

88 posts in this topic

Has anybody ever bothered to check the context of the army numbers we are given?

Depending on the situation people may have not had the opportunity to actually gather good numbers while they have in other situations (e.g. Theon when he watches Roose's troops march by him in ADwD) or they may have a good reason to exaggerate or downplay the numbers (e.g. for the former might be Renly's talk about his strength on the basis of the number of the campfires Cat can see).

I think we should see all that in context. That way, one could make criteria for good and not so good numbers. After all, we have to occupy ourselves in some way...

And in that sense, Tyrion could exaggerate quite a bit when talks to Oberyn about the armies of the Tyrells and the Lannisters.

Edited by Lord Varys

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1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

In that sense, Tyrion could exaggerate quite a bit when talks to Oberyn about the armies of the Tyrells and the Lannisters.

I thought that Tyrion might be exaggerating for effect but we can only really check with the Gold Cloak numbers:

"Both, I fear." Ser Addam smiled. "Death and desertion have left me with some forty-four hundred. Only the gods and Littlefinger know how we are to go on paying wages for so many, but your sister forbids me to dismiss any."

Which is kind of what he tells Oberyn.

"Do you smell the gold cloaks? There are near five thousand of them."

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Other numbers given by Tyrion/in his chapters might be pretty good. He has his clansmen scout and make good guesses on the size of his father's army when he arrives there. Those should be pretty accurate. But we don't know whether he actually had the chance to count (or cared to count) the men his father and Mace brought to the capital.

In addition there is the fact to consider that Renly's huge army at Bitterbridge consisted (nearly) entirely of foot. They couldn't have reached KL all that quickly. And then there is the fact that KL is pretty much immediately fed after the Blackwater, suggesting that Mace had the Renly's huge baggage train only come up the Roseroad after the main host, which would mean not all of those guys were at the Blackwater.

By the way, is it ever stated whether those 10,000 men Mace supposedly kept at Highgarden accompanied him to the city? Do they really exist (Renly had no reason to tell the truth about them)?

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41 minutes ago, Nyrhex said:

Good catch with the Freys. This indeed upgrades the losses from the battle to a minimum ~4,200 men, with the new upper limit being ~4,600. 

Roose lost a third of his men on the Trident. He leaves another ~600 men, and arrives to the Twins with 3,500 men. That makes for a total host of ~6,000-6,150 (since ~4,100 is the ~2/3rds that crossed in time). The ~1,500 Freys are not included in this figure since they had already left Harrenhal before the Trident made it nearly impossible to cross, and are already back at the Twins.

The Karstarks are indeed difficult to calculate. Roose says he gave all of them to Harrion, but still has Karstark men with him for the Red Wedding. There were only 300 Karstark horse in AGOT, but there are said to be ~1,000 Karstark men looking for Jaime. Considering that Roose sends Harrion with Glover and Tallhart to Duskendale shortly after the Blackwater, but before Jaime is released, either the ~1,000 figure is wrong, or Bolton did not send all Karstarks with Harrion. I went with the latter but if it was the former:

~6,000-6,150 Northmen and 1,500 Freys return fron Harrenhal. 3,000 Northmen are lost for Duskendale. 200 Northmen escort Jaime. Subtract the 400 garrison men still not included = 10,300-10,450. Close enough to Edmure's 10,000 men. 

From ~16,250-17,525 to 10,300-10,450 we are talking about 5,950-7,225 losses.

So, either we are talking about a scenario where the Karstarks are not fully destroyed both at the Green Fork and then at Duskendale (and count the Freys aside from the main host), where the North suffers ~4,200-4,600 losses, or we are talking about a scenario where they were and we count the Freys with Roose and the total losses for the Green Fork are 5,950-7,225. Massive losses by a medieval scale. 

 

 

Just like to add that I tend to ignore numbers of soldiers less than 4-500, since the margin of error of basically all of the figures we have been given is about that size anyway.

I agree that the casualties seem over the top given that there was basically no pursuit, I think we have to just accept that a mixture of exhaustion from the night march (and possibly several days worth of forced marches before hand) and wounds taken from the close combat and all of the arrow fire was sufficient to cause hundreds if not thousands more dead during and after the battle than would otherwise be expected.

 

44 minutes ago, The Holy Goat said:

I suppose it's fully possible that Kevan had a much larger force, but we have to remember that Tywin had a huge amount of armored horse in his army (Robb even lamshades it). 4,000 under Addam, 300 under Kevan, 2,500 under Tywin (all of them heavy horse) and presumably some under under Gregor. It's bound to end up on a 7,000 heavy cavalry. And that's not counting the light cavalry of Gregor's left which might be another 1,000. So the horse to foot ratio was very high in his army. Jaime meanwhile had some 3,000 horse and 12,000 foot, so all in all it would be a 2:5 ratio for the entire Lannister force, wouldn't it. You're probably right about Gregor's force not being the size of Addam's though.

 

Robb only has ~4,500 heavy horse, if Gregor had as many men as Addam and many of them were heavy horse Tywin would have twice as much as Robb, him having around 7,000-7,500 heavy horse would be enough for Robb to say "a lot more".

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1 hour ago, Nyrhex said:

The Karstarks are indeed difficult to calculate.

If it helps, there is this SSM:

Quote

Bolton didn't lie when he says that the Karastark men were sent to Duskendale and they then were with him at the Twins...Bolton split the Karstark host. George seem confused by my question and I think this is really a non-issue for him.

 

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1 hour ago, The Holy Goat said:

1, Robb had 18,000 without Manderly's 1,500. This is supported when they reach the Twins and Theon says he has five times Frey's number (4,000 * 5 = 20,000). Reek also recalls that "near enough 20,000" marched south with Robb. So he actually had slightly below 24,000 men after joining with Frey, and some 200 at Moat Cailin. So perhaps 23,000 marched from the Twins. I reckon 17,000 foot and some 600 horse marched with Bolton, 5,400 horse marched with Stark. Mallister joined Stark with 600 horse afterwards boosting it to 6,000.

2, I already adressed this before quoting you, and I realized my mistake. I now guess the Lannisters had some 8,000 horse and 12,000 foot in Tywin's host. 4,000 rode under Addam, 2,500 rode under Tywin, 300 rode with Kevan. All heavy horse, 6,700 together. And then Gregor and his men-at-arms could be added to that, along with some of the sellswords and hedge knightswho rode with him. So perhaps 7,000 heavy horse all in all. Then there's the light cavalry under Gregor, sellswords, hedge knights, mercenaries, smallfolk, clansmen etc. These might contitue close to a thousand.

3, I can concede that.

4, Yet the very man who arrived at Tywin's camp to tell the story was position in the camp between the Red Fork and the Tumblestone. And he specifically mentions that he had talked to other survivors from the same camp so he was probably not alone in joining Tywin. Then there's also the fact that Forley retreated with 4,000 men. Yet Golden Tooth hardly requires 4,000 to hold it and considering the small force Prester has when he marches at Riverrun with Daven (1,000) one has to wonder where the rest went. Some went to stiffen Stafford Lannisters ill-fated host, but I find it likely that Prester split his host and sent some to Tywin along with survivors from the other camps.

5, Varys said that losses were heavy on both sides though. While Tarly certainly didn't suffer as horribly as Glover and Tallhart, I wouldn't be surprised if 1,000 bit the dust.

1. Having ~18k and treating it as 20k is not that unreasonable. Neither is calling 18k close enough to 20k. I really don't see a reason to asssume that Robb had 18,000 men without Manderly. When the Karstarks are in the distance Bran asks how many, and he gets told 12k with the Karstarks. At Moat Cailin the Manderly's had just joined Robb, why would he be saying "What are we going to do? I have built this vast army but not counting the Manderlys, I don't know if it's enough" just sounds odd. Either way both scenarios are covered with casualties for an upper and lower limit.

2. Yes, Tywin's army was very heavy on cavalry. Considering that he worked with Jaime in tandem up until Riverrun, it is likely that the composition of the armies was slightly different earlier, with them trading forces for Tywin to have a field battle army while Jaime would havea siege army plus a mobile portion. If the southern camp is indicative of Jaime's host, 2,000 spearmen and 2,000 bowmen makes for an archer-heavy army of ~2-3k cav, 6k archers and 6k spearmen (not including losses from the first two battles). With Tywin having ~7,500 horse (not including the 300 clansmen), and ~12,500 foot, the Lannisters would indeed have ~10k horse to ~24,500 foot.

4. I know, I often use that point when people argue for massive Lannister losses. But the man is not the camp. If the southern camp thinks the best option is to head west, I take it that the runner was alone and was just going to inform Tywin while most fled west. Him talking to others from his camp and the Northern camp simply means that it is most likely that they made thier way to a point where they felt safe, from which the runner departed. Likely the southern camp. Prester gathering some from the two other camps to get a picture of what happened and sending one off to Tywin to tell a first hand story makes far more sense than hundreds or thousands of men fleeing to an army they believe to be marching on the Twins by now. Home is much closer, needs defending now, and is where they know at least a third of them are already going with a clear leader.

5. Varys says heavy casualties on both sides, but that means little. Aside from that there was a second battle, after that, when Gregor Joins. When Brienne is there, she calls the Northern dead "far more numerous". Clearly, the Lannister-Tyrells-Stormlord combined losses were lower than 3,000 in total, and besides there were very few Lannister troops there to begin with, so taking it as a significant Lannister troop loss is not really something that the text justifies. 

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1 hour ago, Nittanian said:

If it helps, there is this SSM:

 

Well, to him, it is clear that when Bolton says:

Bolton gave a soft chuckle. "Harrion Karstark was captive here when we took the castle, did you know? I gave him all the Karhold men still with me and sent him off with Glover. I do hope nothing ill befell him at Duskendale . . . else Alys Karstark would be all that remains of Lord Rickard's progeny." He chose another prune. "Fortunately for you, I have no need of a wife. I wed the Lady Walda Frey whilst I was at the Twins." - Jaime V, ASOS.

he actually means:

Bolton gave a soft chuckle. "Harrion Karstark was captive here when we took the castle, did you know? I gave him half the Karhold men still with me and sent him off with Glover. I do hope nothing ill befell him at Duskendale . . . else Alys Karstark would be all that remains of Lord Rickard's progeny." He chose another prune. "Fortunately for you, I have no need of a wife. I wed the Lady Walda Frey whilst I was at the Twins."

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If you assume that Edmure wasn't counting the Frey infantry when he said Roose had ten thousand men (or was just rounding) then the numbers work more or less perfectly with what we know from his later losses. Let's start with the absolutely concrete figures.

Beginning

Robb has ~19,500 troops (I'm assuming Manderly's 1,500 weren't counted in his 18,000 since he's constantly said to have 20,000 later, but really it doesn't matter much) with a slightly greater than 1-4 horse-to-foot ratio if his earlier muster of 12,000 troops with ~3,300 heavy cavalry is any indication (seems about right, Renly's Reach/Stormlands host had about the same). Meaning he has ~14,500 infantry and ~5,000 heavy cavalry. He's joined by the Freys, who have ~3,000 infantry and ~1,000 heavy cavalry, bringing his total host to ~17,500 infantry and ~6,000 heavy cavalry. He leaves 400 Frey and 400 Northern infantry at the Twins, and a garrison of mostly archers at Moat Cailin, which Ned said would be well garrisoned with 200 archers. This leaves him with ~16,500 infantry and ~6,000 heavy cavalry. He takes 9/10 of the heavy horse with him personally and leaves everything else with Roose. So Roose's army is ~16,500 infantry and ~600 heavy cavalry, for a total of 17,100 troops on the Green Fork. We also know that Edmure had Roose's host joined by Tallharts' 400 Northmen Twins garrison AFTER the Green Fork, so the total number of troops under Roose's command in the theater was 17,500. Straightforward so far.

Ending

Roose has 3,500 troops at the Red Wedding. He left 600 to guard a ford, and sent 200 under Steelshanks to escort Jaime. That means ~4,300 men were left after deaths, desertions, and defections, of which 4,100 were in his host. We know that about a third of his men were lost at Ruby Ford, after he sent Steelshanks away and right before the Red Wedding. If 4,100 is 2/3 of his original host, then at that point he had ~6,200 men. We also know he sent ~3,000 infantry to Duskendale; add Steelshanks' 200 riders and his host would total 9,400 troops camped at Harrenhal after the Karstark and Frey desertions. Again, straightforward.

Middle

The problem is everything in between, which is much less clear; here things stop being concrete and get slightly speculative. But there's still a picture we can paint with the figures we are given. The biggest dispute seems to be the Karstarks. As quoted earlier, Roose says ~1,000 Karstarks deserted (somewhat questionable, but it's the only concrete figure we get on them), as did presumably the ~1,500 Freys under Aenys. Add those and Roose's host at Harrenhal would total ~11,900 prior to the mass losses. Close enough to Edmure's offhand statement of ten thousand, especially if he's counting the Freys as his own men, not Roose's (that would give Roose ~10,400 Northmen). 

This gives us an upper ceiling for Northern/Frey losses on the Green Fork. The difference between the total number of men Roose started with (17,500) and what he ends up with (11,900) is ~5,600. From there we also need to consider losses due to attrition ("regular" desertions, disease deaths, etc.) and various minor skirmishes and sieges. See for instance what Tywin's host goes through; Hoat's 300 raiders get reduced to 100 after foraging, Lorch's 100 men-at-arms are killed at Harrenhal, a presumably similarly-sized garrison (~100 men-at-arms) is butchered at Darry, Burton Crakehall's column of troops (as the brother of a major lord his command was probably more than a few dozen guys) is annihilated by Beric, Arya witnesses a foraging party annihilated by the BWB at a septry, Blackfish hangs two dozen of Tywin's scouts, Marq Piper is said to have killed a bunch of Tywin's outriders as well, et cetera. And that's just what we see. With all that said I think it's fair to assume that Roose lost a few hundred without going through any major battles.

Therefore, losses to the North/Riverlands force at the Green Fork during the battle and subsequent retreat can be reasonably estimated at ~5,000 men.

What about the Lannisters? For them it's harder to say. We know that Tyrion's clansmen took more than 50% losses in the all-mounted vanguard. Since Tyrion's clansmen were veteran fighters with good weapons and armor, it seems likely they at least wouldn't do any worse than the other men in the vanguard. So deaths in the vanguard were probably around 50%- or 500 cavalry killed. The rest of the army is pretty much a total guessing game due to our lack of info and the limited perspective Tyrion offers us even within the battle. Say that the tiny vanguard took as many losses as the entire rest of the army combined. That would put their losses at ~1,000.

On top of this must be added their losses during the march back. Tyrion says: "Men wounded in the battle kept up as best they could or were abandoned to fend for themselves. Every morning they left a few more by the roadside, men who went to sleep never to wake. Every afternoon a few more collapsed along the way. And every evening a few more deserted, stealing off into the dusk. Tyrion had been half-tempted to go with them." So a large portion of the wounded were abandoned in the aftermath of the battle to enable the rapid pace of the march, and from then-on "a few" men a day, three times a day, died or went missing. "A few" typically means three to six; let's go with the higher end of that meaning since I won't be counting whatever wounded were abandoned immediately (on the day of the battle, the number of wounded left to die surely must have been more than it would average on later days). That's ~18 men a day for a march that took at least several days from Tyrion's wording; call it two weeks at a high end and you get ~252 men lost.

Therefore, losses to the Westerlands force at the Green Fork during the battle and subsequent retreat can be reasonably estimated at ~1,250 men.

In other words losses were 1:4 in favor of the Westermen. Not very surprising when one side has friggin 7,500 heavy cavalry and the other side not even a tenth of that. 

Edited by Nihlus

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I think Roose had 16.000 men for this battle. Don't know his exact number of losses, or Tywin's losses, just that Roose was soundly defeated. 

And Roose's men were arrowing both the Northmen and the Lannisters, while there were no Bolton men in the front lines, noted by Tyrion. 

Roose is the biggest nothern traitor hands down.

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On ‎2016‎/‎02‎/‎10 at 1:15 AM, Nyrhex said:

1. Having ~18k and treating it as 20k is not that unreasonable. Neither is calling 18k close enough to 20k. I really don't see a reason to asssume that Robb had 18,000 men without Manderly. When the Karstarks are in the distance Bran asks how many, and he gets told 12k with the Karstarks. At Moat Cailin the Manderly's had just joined Robb, why would he be saying "What are we going to do? I have built this vast army but not counting the Manderlys, I don't know if it's enough" just sounds odd. Either way both scenarios are covered with casualties for an upper and lower limit.

In the case of Bran and the Karstarks arriving at Winterfell, Luwin was specifically counting the Karstarks as they were marching into Winterfell. And Bran asks him how many men that brings the total to now. So clearly Luwin, the one who is doing the observing, counting and overall record keeping, is in a position to inform Bran of the inclusive total.

In the case of the Manderlys arriving at Moat Cailin, Catelyn is the one observing their 1500 men arriving, and they then go straight to Robb, who had not had a chance to count them. And he is not responding to a specific question on how many the cumulative total stands on after the new arrivals, as Luwin was at Winterfell.

The circumstances are quite different.

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On 2/9/2016 at 3:43 PM, Free Northman Reborn said:

One thing is clear. Roose was a disaster as a commander for the North. He bled men like it was going out of fashion. Of course, in hindsight it seems likely that most of it was deliberate, in order to weaken his rival Northern lords in preparation for an attempted Bolton power grab when he got back in North.

I agree with you 100%! It seems to me that Roose is secretly sending men back to the Dreadfort, or some undisclosed location to regroup after every battle. After the Green Fork, he was probably able to send at least a few thousand back because of the "chaos" of the retreat (even though it was orderly), plus it was close in proximity to the north. He also put the houses most loyal to the Starks in the most perilous positions possible (so more of them would die). I don't know about the Green Fork, but he was in cahoots with the Lannisters and the Freys for quite a long time. The Red Wedding took time to plan, and I'm sure that there were several alternative plots in place in case the Red Wedding were foiled somehow.

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9 hours ago, Romaine3 said:

I agree with you 100%! It seems to me that Roose is secretly sending men back to the Dreadfort, or some undisclosed location to regroup after every battle. After the Green Fork, he was probably able to send at least a few thousand back because of the "chaos" of the retreat (even though it was orderly), plus it was close in proximity to the north. He also put the houses most loyal to the Starks in the most perilous positions possible (so more of them would die). I don't know about the Green Fork, but he was in cahoots with the Lannisters and the Freys for quite a long time. The Red Wedding took time to plan, and I'm sure that there were several alternative plots in place in case the Red Wedding were foiled somehow.

How are they getting past the Twins without being noticed or past the IB at all?

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54 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

How are they getting past the Twins without being noticed or past the IB at all?

Not sure what the IB is. As for the Twins, Roose and Walker Frey seem to have been in communication for quite a while. Plus, many of the above posts state that they were acknowledging deaths and defections as the reason Roose lost such a high number of men after the Green Fork. So Roose instructs for a good chunk of his own men to "defect" and head home to the Dreadfort. 

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1 hour ago, Romaine3 said:

Not sure what the IB is. As for the Twins, Roose and Walker Frey seem to have been in communication for quite a while. Plus, many of the above posts state that they were acknowledging deaths and defections as the reason Roose lost such a high number of men after the Green Fork. So Roose instructs for a good chunk of his own men to "defect" and head home to the Dreadfort. 

I = Ironborn. The Iron born occupy Moat Cailin from about the middle of Clash, around the time Robb arrives in the Westerlands. After that, ain't nobody slipping into the North from the Neck. 

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28 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I = Ironborn. The Iron born occupy Moat Cailin from about the middle of Clash, around the time Robb arrives in the Westerlands. After that, ain't nobody slipping into the North from the Neck. 

I don't actually agree with @Romaine3 but if Roose did send a portion of his own Bolton troops back North after the Green Fork then its possible to get past the Moat before the IB take it.

 

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Robb had 19,500 men with him when he marched from Moat Cailin. He confirms that he's going to leave a garrison of bowmen behind and we can assume at least 200, since that's what Ned planned to garrison the moat with. So he arrives at the Twins with a max of 19,300 and is joined by 4000 Frey's. IIRC he leaves 700 behind; a mix of Frey and Northmen; and then splits his host with 9/10's of the cavalry (5400/5500) going with Robb and 5-600 going with Roose. So Roose's army on the Green Fork consists of about 17,200.

In order to work out his losses on the Green Fork, we have to work with what we know later. Roose arrives at the Red Wedding with 3500 men, mostly Bolton and Karstark having left 600 to guard the Ruby Ford. So after he gets 'ambushed' by Gregor he has 4100, which is reportedly 2/3's of the host he left Harrenhal with. So he had 6100 (ish) before crossing the Ruby Ford). He sent 3000 men to Duskendale; none of which managed to escape back to rejoin Roose, Steelshanks Walton led 200 men to escort Jaime to Kings Landing and he doubtless left a garrison to hold Harrenhal and that would at least be 200 men. From this we can assume that Roose had something near 9500 when he took Harrenhal. We also know that Aenys Frey had 1500 men with him when Arya was at Harrenhal, so after the Green Fork, Roose's army had 11,000 men. Minus Tallhart's 400, 10,600 men who fought at the Green Fork were present when Harrenhal was captured (whether Edmure counted the Frey's as his own or Roose's is unclear as 9500 and 11,000 are both close enough to 10,000 that Edmures numbers can be seen as rough/rounded estimates)

Using this, we have an upper limit of 5600 men being killed on the Green Fork. Of course, that's likely not the exact number of casualties. Some of those will have been desertions over the course of the war, outriders/scouts being caught, pillagers being killed etc. We see easily 500 men in the Lannister army fall this way (200 Brave Companions, Lorch's men at arms, the party the Brotherhood kill at the Stoney Sept, Burton Crakehall's men, the men Marq Piper and Karyl Vance kill on their raids and so on) so overall I'd say that the Northmen lost a maximum of 5000 on the Green Fork (Roose's garrison at Harrenhal may have been bigger, Robb might have left more men at MC, the Duskendale/Ruby Ford numbers could have been rounded down by a few hundred each, the attritional losses could be bigger than I estimate etc)

 

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44 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

he doubtless left a garrison to hold Harrenhal and that would at least be 200 men.

Doesn't Roose leave Harrenhal entirely to Vargo (who is swiftly abandoned by the Brave Companions)?

45 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

the party the Brotherhood kill at the Stoney Sept

FYI, the brotherhood kills Utt's Mummers at an unnamed septry. The town of Stoney Sept, which is supportive of the brotherhood, does have to fend off northmen, westermen, and Mummers, though. 

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1 hour ago, Nittanian said:

Doesn't Roose leave Harrenhal entirely to Vargo (who is swiftly abandoned by the Brave Companions)?

FYI, the brotherhood kills Utt's Mummers at an unnamed septry. The town of Stoney Sept, which is supportive of the brotherhood, does have to fend off northmen, westermen, and Mummers, though. 

I had thought he'd left some other men there along with Hoat, considering that the Companions, by that point, had only a hundred men. Far too few to hold Harrenhal. Even if he didn't though it doesn't throw my numbers off by all that much.

My mistake on the Stoney Sept.

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2 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

I had thought he'd left some other men there along with Hoat, considering that the Companions, by that point, had only a hundred men. Far too few to hold Harrenhal. Even if he didn't though it doesn't throw my numbers off by all that much.

My mistake on the Stoney Sept.

Roose totally bailed on Vargo. Roose was in cahoots with Tywin, who had promised Harrenhal to Petyr, and who would want Vargo dead for what he did to Jaime. 

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54 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Roose totally bailed on Vargo. Roose was in cahoots with Tywin, who had promised Harrenhal to Petyr, and who would want Vargo dead for what he did to Jaime. 

Roose was going to set him up either way. Giving him HH could have originally been meant as a way to keep an ally you didn't care about -- HH curse and all -- in an area you desired to return to.

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