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Floki of the Ironborn

Battle on the Green Fork casualties

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1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Roose totally bailed on Vargo. Roose was in cahoots with Tywin, who had promised Harrenhal to Petyr, and who would want Vargo dead for what he did to Jaime. 

He did but leaving him with a hundred or so Manderly's or Umber's is also a good way to get rid of any excess forces that would side with Robb

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17 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

He did but leaving him with a hundred or so Manderly's or Umber's is also a good way to get rid of any excess forces that would side with Robb

But he specifically didn't do that. He left those guys behind on the west part of the Trident or on the eastern bank to prevent the Lannisters from crossing.

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51 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

He did but leaving him with a hundred or so Manderly's or Umber's is also a good way to get rid of any excess forces that would side with Robb

I guess he already had a plan for them...

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2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

But he specifically didn't do that. He left those guys behind on the west part of the Trident or on the eastern bank to prevent the Lannisters from crossing.

Yeah, I went back and checked he left Harrenhal solely to the Companions who then abandoned Harrenhal. There was no additional garrison there. This puts the max number of casualties on the Green Fork a little higher.

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Disregarding Edmure's statement Roose has 10000 men, one other way of getting an estimate on casualties would be Robb's plans of what would he do after RW.

He knew of Duskendale and had an idea of how many troops would he have if Roose didn't lose any to the Mountain.

Robb expected to have over twelve thousand men to march on MC after Roose's army and the Freys joined him. Seeing how he says over twelve thousand but not near thirteen thousand, He has 12000-12400 ( Tyrion says near five thousand for his 4400 Gold Cloaks).

 

Even after all his casualties during his campaign and  Karstarks (near three hundred) and Freys(at least five hundred) leaving, Robb still has 3500 men.

After losing a third of his remaining force fording the Trident, Roose has 3500 men with him, and 600 guarding the rear. He also has 200 men with Jaime. Taking a third to be exact, he would have 6350 men if the 200 escort is not counted as part of the main force, 6450 if it is. All together, northmen in this 12000+ is 9850/9950 for an exact third lost. It would leave the Freys with 2450/2550 for the highest number 12400 and 2050/2150 for 12000.

Without counting the 400 men garrison, I can see Freys having left with a little above 2000 but not as much as 2500 out of their original near 3600; They still have 500 horsemen left and I'm sure there are some more left, as Robb's horse is still more than %50 intact and it seems most notable drops were due to the desertions of Karstarks (who still had near 300 after whispering wood, very small casualties overall) and leaving of the Freys. Their infantry force is a different story however; before they get a raven learning of Robb breaking their promise to them, Aenys Frey has 1500 men. Freys were in the thick of battle as evidenced by Tyrion seeing them, so losing near 1100 men out of their near 2600 makes sense.

All said, Roose has almost eight thousand (7850/7950) men after taking Harrenhal, not counting the men that went to Duskendale.

Robb had 18000/19500 at start, 21200/22700 after Freys joined him (not including Twins garrison, not giving any to MC)

Roose, who had a tenth of the cavalry still has some five hundred after all the fighting, leaving some to defend the ford and losing "Manderly Knights" though however few there may be (there were twenty some at start with as many squires, some went with Wylis and some with Wendel).

Robb has 6000 men after Mallisters, some small lords and survivors of Riverrun battle join his 9/10. With the 3300/3400 from those lords at WF, 1000 from Freys and ~250 from Manderlys (~4600 so far) I think it is reasonable that he had 5500+ horse before splitting, possibly almost 6000.

For an exact 6000, Roose would have 16500 infantry for 1000 men left as garrison (800 at twins, 200 at MC as Ned intended)

With ~600 cavalry, and not comitting them to battle, if he had exactly 10000 men left as Edmure said, he'd have ~9400 infantry left, which is ~%57 of his original infantry strength. It is comparable to Freys drop to 1500 from 2600, which is ~%58.

 

In summary, number given by Edmure is not far off from what would be with all we know and whether Robb had 500 infantry more and 500 cavalry fewer before his split, or the other way around, it doesn't change the results too much.(This is done thinking he had 19500, if he had 18000 results would be a little more different, though again not that much)

 

To go even further,

"A third of my foot for Duskendale..." Robbs infantry after Duskendale is ~7250 giving Roose 600 horse. If Roose had 10000 as Edmure said, he'd have ~9400 infantry add to that the 400 that come with Tallhart, Robb now has ~9800 foot before and ~7250 after, 2550 lost.

2550/9800= ~%26. With all the round ups and downs, easily justifiable to be a third. Again the numbers add up.

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1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

With ~600 cavalry, and not comitting them to battle, if he had exactly 10000 men left as Edmure said, he'd have ~9400 infantry left, which is ~%57 of his original infantry strength. It is comparable to Freys drop to 1500 from 2600, which is ~%58.

 

In summary, number given by Edmure is not far off from what would be with all we know and whether Robb had 500 infantry more and 500 cavalry fewer before his split, or the other way around, it doesn't change the results too much.(This is done thinking he had 19500, if he had 18000 results would be a little more different, though again not that much)

So, going with this calculation, the Stark losses on the Green Fork would have been:

~6,600 infantry if starting Northern host at Moat Cailing was 19,500 with the Manderly force. Of those ~5,500 Northmen, ~1,100 Freys.

~5,100 infantry if starting Northern host at Moat Cailing was 18,000 with the Manderly force. Of those ~4,000 Northmen, ~1,100 Freys.

 

The issue remaining is if the 1,500 Frey foot was all that was left after the Green Fork, or if the Freys send fewer men than they had for another battle.

With 1,500 Frey foot, and 400 Frey soldiers in the garrison, that comes to 1,900 Frey infantry. Assuming cavalry losses being zero, that leaves the Freys 2,900 men. Not enough to send 1,500 men north with Roose and 2,000 to lay siege to the Twins. We have an anchor "2,000 spears from the Twins" marching on Riverrun.

On the other hand, assuming that was 2,000 spears including local Riverlords who joined because the Freys kept thier relatives as hostages, 1,100 Frey losses on the Green Fork and an upper limit of 500 cavalry losses from Robb's host works and sounds far more reasonable than a total of 1,100 losses between both hosts and all the major battles before the breaking of the alliance.

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4 hours ago, Nyrhex said:

So, going with this calculation, the Stark losses on the Green Fork would have been:

~6,600 infantry if starting Northern host at Moat Cailing was 19,500 with the Manderly force. Of those ~5,500 Northmen, ~1,100 Freys.

~5,100 infantry if starting Northern host at Moat Cailing was 18,000 with the Manderly force. Of those ~4,000 Northmen, ~1,100 Freys.

 

The issue remaining is if the 1,500 Frey foot was all that was left after the Green Fork, or if the Freys send fewer men than they had for another battle.

With 1,500 Frey foot, and 400 Frey soldiers in the garrison, that comes to 1,900 Frey infantry. Assuming cavalry losses being zero, that leaves the Freys 2,900 men. Not enough to send 1,500 men north with Roose and 2,000 to lay siege to the Twins. We have an anchor "2,000 spears from the Twins" marching on Riverrun.

On the other hand, assuming that was 2,000 spears including local Riverlords who joined because the Freys kept thier relatives as hostages, 1,100 Frey losses on the Green Fork and an upper limit of 500 cavalry losses from Robb's host works and sounds far more reasonable than a total of 1,100 losses between both hosts and all the major battles before the breaking of the alliance.

Some of the Frey soldiers we see after RW are obviously newly raised, just like Rodrik's 600 from Winterfell garrison and nearest holdfasts or Karstarks ~450 that "join" Stannis. This is evidenced by their lack of equipment even after RW where ~3500 men died (Mormont and Glover had some men and Frey and Bolton lost some small number, should roughly equal eachother) After the RW Freys have 3500+ men(2000 sieges Riverrun according to Jaime and 2000 or 1500+ going North depending on whether you take Cersei's or Theon's POV), not counting the Garrisons of Twins and Seagard, whereas they had 2000-2500 before RW (as evidenced by Aenys having fifteen hundred men just before news of the Crag and Robb's expectation of over twelve thousand men to take MC), not counting the garrison of Twins.

One possible calculation for remaining Frey horseman

Let's say Robb had 6000 cavalry(he probably had a bit less but certainly above 5500) and no Frey horseman went with Roose (if the freys also had 1/10 of their horse go with him he'd not have more than 500 horse after they left). According to Theon, Lannisters lost ten men for each one Robb lost; ~200 losses for Robb; %3,33 losses which would mean 180 loss for his 5400 cavalry. To simplify, if Karstarks also had all 300 with Robb (near 300 deserted to search for Jaime), it'd mean 10 losses for them. Freys casualty is ~33

After Karstarks leave, Robb is left with 4930 cavalry for his Westerlands campaign, of this  967 are Freys, leaving 3963 Northman. Assuming no more casualties for Robb in Westerlands after Freys left, and Robb has 3500 men returning North, he lost ~%12 of this remaining 3963. Giving the Freys the same rate, they are left with ~854 horsemen. Which brings them to 2354 men without the garrison and Robbs over 12000 to 12204 men with Roose's men calculated in the way of the previous post.

Very accurate numbers I'd say, as Robb says over twelve thousand and not near thirteen (4400 makes near five thousand as seen with Tyrion so 12400 could very well make near thirteen thousand)

All said, it is very much possible to not being able to equip ~1600 new men with the equipment taken from 3500 dead ones, at least not immediately, as the equipment would obviously be damaged and will need repairs, if it is even possible. Not everyone is Tywin lannister to carry equipment around to outfit  perhaps 3000 additional soldiers (he equips 300 mountain clansmen but promises to give arms and armor enough to equip 3000 men after the battle)

Edited by Corvo the Crow

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7 hours ago, Nyrhex said:

So, going with this calculation, the Stark losses on the Green Fork would have been:

~6,600 infantry if starting Northern host at Moat Cailing was 19,500 with the Manderly force. Of those ~5,500 Northmen, ~1,100 Freys.

~5,100 infantry if starting Northern host at Moat Cailing was 18,000 with the Manderly force. Of those ~4,000 Northmen, ~1,100 Freys.

 

The issue remaining is if the 1,500 Frey foot was all that was left after the Green Fork, or if the Freys send fewer men than they had for another battle.

With 1,500 Frey foot, and 400 Frey soldiers in the garrison, that comes to 1,900 Frey infantry. Assuming cavalry losses being zero, that leaves the Freys 2,900 men. Not enough to send 1,500 men north with Roose and 2,000 to lay siege to the Twins. We have an anchor "2,000 spears from the Twins" marching on Riverrun.

On the other hand, assuming that was 2,000 spears including local Riverlords who joined because the Freys kept thier relatives as hostages, 1,100 Frey losses on the Green Fork and an upper limit of 500 cavalry losses from Robb's host works and sounds far more reasonable than a total of 1,100 losses between both hosts and all the major battles before the breaking of the alliance.

1. They sent 2,000 troops with Roose, not 1,500. Directly stated by Cersei who should be in a better position to judge than Theon just eyeballing it and saying "more than a thousand infantry."

2. I always rationalized the "2000 spears from the Twins" as including houses allied to the Freys under Frey command, not just the Frey levies themselves (technically it's not directly stated). Throw in a few hundred Vyprens, a few hundred Brackens, maybe some other stragglers.

3. It would make sense if all or most of Roose's ~600 heavy cavalry were Bolton men, rather than being like a few dozen men from every house.

Edited by Nihlus

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11 minutes ago, Nihlus said:

1. They sent 2,000 troops with Roose, not 1,500. Directly stated by Cersei who should be in a better position to judge than Theon just eyeballing it and saying "more than a thousand infantry."

I believe the opposite. Why would Cersei know how many men the Freys actually sent? She is a thousand miles away. Theon saw the army with his own eyes.

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11 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I believe the opposite. Why would Cersei know how many men the Freys actually sent? She is a thousand miles away. Theon saw the army with his own eyes.

Cersei is the queen regent of the realm and the person the Freys report to. Theon on the other hand, who gives no specific number at all for the infantry other than "more than a thousand," has no actual way to tell. Could YOU tell the difference between 1,000 men and 1,500 men in his position? How?

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5 minutes ago, Nihlus said:

Cersei is the queen regent of the realm and the person the Freys report to. Theon on the other hand, who gives no specific number at all for the infantry other than "more than a thousand," has no actual way to tell. Could YOU tell the difference between 1,000 men and 1,500 men in his position? How?

She gets a report (in round figures) of how many men they are supposedly going to send. No different to Renly saying Robb had 20k men when he had 19500 etc.

Cersei has no way of knowing how many men they eventually end up sending. Theon said there were more than a thousand infantry. Maybe there were 1200 infantry, in addition to the 500 cavalry. Maybe their total number was therefore 1700. Or 1800. Cersei was hardly going to have that level of detail.

Point is, the more Freys there are, the less Roose's strength at Winterfell makes sense. Roose already marched up the Neck with 4000 Northmen. Add 2000 Freys and you already get to 6000. That's without the 300 Manderlys, the 600 Dreadfort men with Ramsay, or the 400 Umbers with Whoresbane. That already takes them to 7300. And that without any of the Cerwyn, Dustin, Ryswell, Locke, Slate or any men from the other Houses.

And yet Theon says to Stannis they have 6000 or more at Winterfell. Frankly, it is more like 8000-9000 at a minimum. The larger the Frey host, the more this number grows out of sync with Theon's statement to Stannis in Winds.

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2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And yet Theon says to Stannis they have 6000 or more at Winterfell. Frankly, it is more like 8000-9000 at a minimum. The larger the Frey host, the more this number grows out of sync with Theon's statement to Stannis in Winds.

The number Theon gives could be those who are still at Winterfell after Freys, Manderlys and Ramsay(at least in Theon's mind) left, it'd make more sense that way.

Stannis had 1500 men on Dragonstone according to ASOS Davos IV. He had 1300 on Dragonstone and 300 on Storm's End According to ASOS Davos V. He went North with no more than 1500 men according to ADWD Davos III. He still has more than 1000 men according to Sam, though I can't find the chapter. Jon expects him to be outnumbered five to one after Roose joins Ramsays force including Umber, Ryswell, Dustin, Cerwyn. I can't remember whether they have learned that Roose has Freys with them at that point I do not know but I think they don't know it yet.

Stannis had three columns of heavy horse, and a fourth force, hundreds in strength, of footmen and mounted archers. One of the columns is shattered by a mammoth so possibly heavy casualties there, but even after all this he has more than 1000 men left.

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1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

She gets a report (in round figures) of how many men they are supposedly going to send. No different to Renly saying Robb had 20k men when he had 19500 etc.

Cersei has no way of knowing how many men they eventually end up sending. Theon said there were more than a thousand infantry. Maybe there were 1200 infantry, in addition to the 500 cavalry. Maybe their total number was therefore 1700. Or 1800. Cersei was hardly going to have that level of detail.

Point is, the more Freys there are, the less Roose's strength at Winterfell makes sense. Roose already marched up the Neck with 4000 Northmen. Add 2000 Freys and you already get to 6000. That's without the 300 Manderlys, the 600 Dreadfort men with Ramsay, or the 400 Umbers with Whoresbane. That already takes them to 7300. And that without any of the Cerwyn, Dustin, Ryswell, Locke, Slate or any men from the other Houses.

And yet Theon says to Stannis they have 6000 or more at Winterfell. Frankly, it is more like 8000-9000 at a minimum. The larger the Frey host, the more this number grows out of sync with Theon's statement to Stannis in Winds.

You're using circular logic. "Theon imprecise estimates that he came to from a glance HAVE to be accurate here, or else his OTHER imprecise estimates that he came to from a glance are wrong." It's more likely that Theon just wasn't counting down to the man in either case and had no way whatsoever to tell the difference between 1,500+ and 2,000 men, or 6,000+ and 8,000 men. Unlike someone overseeing the deployment and who de jure rules the realm, who would have accurate figures.

It's never stated Ramsay brought the 600 Bolton cavalry to Winterfell, by the way.

 

Edited by Nihlus

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Regarding Roose's ~600 men - Unlikely they would be a bit of cavalry from every house. Roose is not with Robb, his entire force is there. At most the smaller cavalry contingents (like Manderly's) would stay with him to make ~10% while most of the organic forces leave with Robb. 

2 hours ago, Nihlus said:

It's never stated Ramsay brought the 600 Bolton cavalry to Winterfell, by the way.

It's actually another point against Theon's counting. If Cassel has 2,000 men (according to him, he could have been inflating the numbers a bit to scare Theon), and Ramsay says he brought back thrice as many as the 200 he said he'd bring (600), Theon's statemeny that Cassel had him 5-1 cannot be right, as 5x600=3,000 most of the time, and Ramsay's three times 200 cannot mean 400 never mind how much we strech the definition of thrice.

No, it is not stated that the 600 were all cavalry. Good point. The description of the battle was of repeated cavalry attacks, but Theon remarks that from Ramsay's mounted retinue at the gate, only few carried lances, more carried weapons meant for fighting on foot (battleaxes and greatswords). It is entirely possible that the cavalry were just used for exactly what was said - breaking enemy formations every time they had a second to breath, white the host was scattered by the Dreadfort foot.

Now I know that factoids can sometimes take forever to get rid of (I still remember how everyone knew that Stafford Lannister had 10,000 men even when the size of his host was never mentioned), but even if Ramsay has his infantry mounted for travel, this would be more than anyone else in the North had shown, so still a bit out there (just less so than before).

 

If indeed Ramsay's force was not 600 cavalry, this is actually relevant to several other issues. 

1. Ramsay did a bit more than just swarm unsuspecting infantry with lots of cavalry. At a generic rate of horse to foot (1-3 or ~25%), 600 men would give Ramsay ~150 horse, ~450 foot. But for a garrison it may be as low as ~50 horse to ~550 foot (based on the Karstark example and garrisons usually not having many horsemen). Both versions give him more credit and justify Theon saying that the Dreatfort men were "better led". 

2. A common point against Martin in making the Boltons unreasonably strong with an all cavalry garrison for a cheap plot tool is removed.

3. Manderly's boast that he still commands more heavy horse than any other in the North has a new lower limit. If earlier the estimation was that he has more than Bolton's 500 at the Red Wedding, 200 with Steelshanks, and 600 with Ramsay (more than ~1,300), now the lower limit is closer to "more than ~850" (if Ramsay has 150 horse) or "more than ~750" (if Ramsay has 50 horse). From this the rest of his host is shrunk from (going with the rule of 1-3 horse-foot ratio) ~4,000 infantry to ~2,550 infantry or ~2,250 infantry.

 

Then again, it is also never stated that all 200 of Steelshak Walton's men in Jaime's escort are cavalry... We only assume so because we know that Jaime gets to ride to King's Landing. But having a bunch of infantry follow a few mounted men is not unheard of even in the setting. If only ~50 mounted men and not 200, that brings a new lower limit to Manderly of "more than ~600 cavalry and 1,8000 infantry" for his army, not counting the manpower needs of the fleet of ~50 ships.

Edited by Nyrhex

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3 hours ago, Nyrhex said:

 It's actually another point against Theon's counting. If Cassel has 2,000 men (according to him, he could have been inflating the numbers a bit to scare Theon), and Ramsay says he brought back thrice as many as the 200 he said he'd bring (600), Theon's statemeny that Cassel had him 5-1 cannot be right, as 5x600=3,000 most of the time, and Ramsay's three times 200 cannot mean 400 never mind how much we strech the definition of thrice

 

Actually, we can stretch it to the point of making both Theon and Ramsay right. Before Whispering Robb's commanders tell him jaime has three times their number; Jaime has 14k or 15k while they have 6k. two and a half times or two and a third times are rounded up, made into three times.

If Ramsay brought 2,33 times as promised it is 466 and if 2,5 it is 500.

If Rodrik had exactly 2000 men (I doubt it but Theon would probably base his calculation on this number)

2000/466 = ~4,29

2000/4,33 =  462

It roughly fits.

~460 men is the only fitting number Ramsay could have if both him and Theon are right.

Moreover Ramsay need not be right on account of several things, first among them is his education, which started a year or two ago before AGOT. Theon, who received a lord's education, help oversaw Robb's army and joined to several battles now would be more reliable than Ramsay, who came to court just a year or two ago. Ramsay may even be right on his numbers, he may had thrice the 200 (460-600) when he was attacking the Hornwood lands but after that he just may have not bothered to count the losses (Tywin's immortal 20000, anyone?)

 

3 hours ago, Nyrhex said:

No, it is not stated that the 600 were all cavalry. Good point. The description of the battle was of repeated cavalry attacks, but Theon remarks that from Ramsay's mounted retinue at the gate, only few carried lances, more carried weapons meant for fighting on foot (battleaxes and greatswords). It is entirely possible that the cavalry were just used for exactly what was said - breaking enemy formations every time they had a second to breath, white the host was scattered by the Dreadfort foot..

This is true because the Garrison Ramsay brought is not entirely a garrison. Lady Hornwood Informs Rodrik and Bran that Ramsay is massing men, so the core of his men are from the garrison, the mounted ones and perhaps some foot, but most would be fresh levies.

Another thing is, according to Jon, 50 men is more than enough to garrison Dreadfort against Stannis (more than 1000 men), and this is with half of the number being servants. Why would Roose in the poor North want to feed 460 men, let alone 600 men in his castle when Winterfell has only 200? King's Landing is the biggest city in westeros and even they feed 2000 men at the start and this is a city of 350-400k

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6 hours ago, Nyrhex said:

Regarding Roose's ~600 men - Unlikely they would be a bit of cavalry from every house. Roose is not with Robb, his entire force is there. At most the smaller cavalry contingents (like Manderly's) would stay with him to make ~10% while most of the organic forces leave with Robb. 

It's actually another point against Theon's counting. If Cassel has 2,000 men (according to him, he could have been inflating the numbers a bit to scare Theon), and Ramsay says he brought back thrice as many as the 200 he said he'd bring (600), Theon's statemeny that Cassel had him 5-1 cannot be right, as 5x600=3,000 most of the time, and Ramsay's three times 200 cannot mean 400 never mind how much we strech the definition of thrice.

No, it is not stated that the 600 were all cavalry. Good point. The description of the battle was of repeated cavalry attacks, but Theon remarks that from Ramsay's mounted retinue at the gate, only few carried lances, more carried weapons meant for fighting on foot (battleaxes and greatswords). It is entirely possible that the cavalry were just used for exactly what was said - breaking enemy formations every time they had a second to breath, white the host was scattered by the Dreadfort foot.

Now I know that factoids can sometimes take forever to get rid of (I still remember how everyone knew that Stafford Lannister had 10,000 men even when the size of his host was never mentioned), but even if Ramsay has his infantry mounted for travel, this would be more than anyone else in the North had shown, so still a bit out there (just less so than before).

 

If indeed Ramsay's force was not 600 cavalry, this is actually relevant to several other issues. 

1. Ramsay did a bit more than just swarm unsuspecting infantry with lots of cavalry. At a generic rate of horse to foot (1-3 or ~25%), 600 men would give Ramsay ~150 horse, ~450 foot. But for a garrison it may be as low as ~50 horse to ~550 foot (based on the Karstark example and garrisons usually not having many horsemen). Both versions give him more credit and justify Theon saying that the Dreatfort men were "better led". 

2. A common point against Martin in making the Boltons unreasonably strong with an all cavalry garrison for a cheap plot tool is removed.

3. Manderly's boast that he still commands more heavy horse than any other in the North has a new lower limit. If earlier the estimation was that he has more than Bolton's 500 at the Red Wedding, 200 with Steelshanks, and 600 with Ramsay (more than ~1,300), now the lower limit is closer to "more than ~850" (if Ramsay has 150 horse) or "more than ~750" (if Ramsay has 50 horse). From this the rest of his host is shrunk from (going with the rule of 1-3 horse-foot ratio) ~4,000 infantry to ~2,550 infantry or ~2,250 infantry.

 

Then again, it is also never stated that all 200 of Steelshak Walton's men in Jaime's escort are cavalry... We only assume so because we know that Jaime gets to ride to King's Landing. But having a bunch of infantry follow a few mounted men is not unheard of even in the setting. If only ~50 mounted men and not 200, that brings a new lower limit to Manderly of "more than ~600 cavalry and 1,8000 infantry" for his army, not counting the manpower needs of the fleet of ~50 ships.

I said Ramsay brought 600 men. We don't actually know how many of them were cavalry, but a significant portion clearly was, and it can certainly be argued that all of them were. Consider that Ramsay was racing to get to Winterfell before Rodrik took the castle. He got there in the nick of time. So it would seem strange in such a scenario that the cavalry and infantry arrived there at the same time. Anyway, this is an issue that has been debated from every angle, without a clear consensus. On the greatsword and greataxe issue, note that Martin has frequently described mounted bowmen or mounted swordsmen in various armies, which means that not all cavalry are mounted lancers.

So it might well be that all 600 were cavalry, but not all of them were mounted lancers. Some were swordsmen or axemen who used the horses as transport, but dismounted to engage in the fight. Anyway, we know that the core of the battle as described by Theon involved Ramsay maneuvering his cavalry repeatedly to charge Rodrik's infantry in the streets of Wintertown. That would hardly be a major feature of the battle if you had only a small number of cavalry charging 2000 infantry. Instead, the far larger part of Ramsay's army who were not mounted would then surely also be described engaging with Rodrik's forces. The fact that no mention is made of this in the entirety of the actual battle, tells me that the cavalry charges involved the bulk of the forces.

Anyway, I forgot about Steelshanks Walton's 200 men. It seems more and more likely that Rooses' cavalry strength must approach 1000. I don't see why people find it difficult to believe that the Manderlys would exceed this.

House Frey has raised at least 1000 knights. And House Manderly rules a city compared to the Freys Twins, plus House Manderly rule extensive lands and control probably 90% of the North's trade, compared to the Freys who cannot control more than 10% of the Riverlands trade, if that. Who actually travels through the Twins, other than the traffic that is headed to Moat Calin? So the Manderlys are almost certainly much richer than the Freys. 1500 cavalry for House Manderly should be very reasonably achievable. For some reason there is resistance to this. But it is quite logical.

Edited by Free Northman Reborn

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4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I said Ramsay brought 600 men. We don't actually know how many of them were cavalry, but a significant portion clearly was, and it can certainly be argued that all of them were. Consider that Ramsay was racing to get to Winterfell before Rodrik took the castle. He got there in the nick of time. So it would seem strange in such a scenario that the cavalry and infantry arrived there at the same time. Anyway, this is an issue that has been debated from every angle, without a clear consensus. On the greatsword and greataxe issue, note that Martin has frequently described mounted bowmen or mounted swordsmen in various armies, which means that not all cavalry are mounted lancers.

So it might well be that all 600 were cavalry, but not all of them were mounted lancers. Some were swordsmen or axemen who used the horses as transport, but dismounted to engage in the fight. Anyway, we know that the core of the battle as described by Theon involved Ramsay maneuvering his cavalry repeatedly to charge Rodrik's infantry in the streets of Wintertown. That would hardly be a major feature of the battle if you had only a small number of cavalry charging 2000 infantry. Instead, the far larger part of Ramsay's army who were not mounted would then surely also be described engaging with Rodrik's forces. The fact that no mention is made of this in the entirety of the actual battle, tells me that the cavalry charges involved the bulk of the forces.

Anyway, I forgot about Steelshanks Walton's 200 men. It seems more and more likely that Rooses' cavalry strength must approach 1000. I don't see why people find it difficult to believe that the Manderlys would exceed this.

House Frey has raised at least 1000 knights. And House Manderly rules a city compared to the Freys Twins, plus House Manderly rule extensive lands and control probably 90% of the North's trade, compared to the Freys who cannot control more than 10% of the Riverlands trade, if that. Who actually travels through the Twins, other than the traffic that is headed to Moat Calin? So the Manderlys are almost certainly much richer than the Freys. 1500 cavalry for House Manderly should be very reasonably achievable. For some reason there is resistance to this. But it is quite logical.

The problem is not Manderly having 1500 horsemen, it is Roose having 1000. Boltons were the second most powerful house in the North, true but the emphasis should be on the "were". Their lands extended from Last River to the east to White Knife to the West, going as far south as Sheepshead hills. Most of these lands belong to the Hornwoods now; their lands are bordered by Sheepshead hills to the south and White Knife to the West, as evidenced by wanting to dam the White Knife. To their north/northeast would be Bolton lands as it is said that their lands adjoin.

We know the Boltons' current lands to be bordered by last river to the east and lonely hills to the North and the only other bordering lord we know is Hornwood to the south/southwest. With Dreadfort also on the northern/eastern bank of the weeping water as evidenced by Theon crossing it when he escaped with Kyra, they may currently have no lands at all on the western side. The land he holds is smaller than Umbers' and possibly also Karstarks' while being similar in geography. So where does he find the money to have 1000 mounted men or the land to give them to have them as landed knights/masters? Karstarks have near 3000 men (2300 with Robb, 450 with Stannis, and less than 300 with Rodrik) but they don't even have 400 horsemen. Again, where does Roose get the money for equipping a thousand or the land to give them so they can equip themselves?

 

Below are two descriptions of northmen soldiers in battles where horses are involved;

Quote

1. All this was but prelude, for the Lords of the Trident had been gathering their forces. When Ser Criston left the lake behind, striking out overland for the Blackwater, he found them waiting atop a stony ridge; three hundred mounted knights in armor, as many longbowmen, three thousand archers, three thousand ragged rivermen with spears, hundreds of northmen brandishing axes, mauls, spiked maces, and ancient iron swords. Above their heads flew Queen Rhaenyra’s banners.

The battle that followed was as one-sided as any in the Dance. Lord Roderick Dustin raised a warhorn to his lips and sounded the charge, and the queen’s men came screaming down the ridge, led by the Winter Wolves on their shaggy northern horses and the knights on their armored destriers. When Ser Criston was struck down and fell dead upon the ground, the men who had followed him from Harrenhal lost heart. They broke and fled, casting aside their shields as they ran. Their foes came after, cutting them down by the hundreds.
 
2.The Dreadfort men made their way across the moat and through the inner gates. Theon descended with Black Lorren and Maester Luwin to meet them in the yard. Pale red pennons trailed from the ends of a few lances, but many more carried battle-axes and greatswords and shields hacked half to splinters. "How many men did you lose?" Theon asked Red Helm as he dismounted.

 

First is from Dance of Dragons, second from Battle of Winterfell. Notice how the first ones have axes and swords while the others have battle axes and greatswords. Also notice the splintered shields, how did they get their shields splintered if they were fighting ahorse against those afoot(caught unprepared)? Most of Ramsay's men were foot soldiers.

 

Also as a sidenote, Roose probably do not even have as many men as Karstarks, his numbers are possibly very close to Karstarks, but not as many.

We see in Winterfell Greatjon threatening to take his levies back if Hornwoods and Cerwyns are ahead of him in the order of march. He sees himself to be entitled to march ahead of them, only reason I can see is having brought more men.

In MC we see Robb, Umbers and Karstarks each having a tower, while others are not. Why these houses and not the others? Greatjon I can understand because he is Robb's right hand, but why is Rickard given a seat while Roose was not? Only reason I can think of to be given this honour is having brought the most men, which makes sense seeing the men they brought amounts to %19 of the near 12000.

Not counting  Mountain clansmen (I think their contribtution is as low as 300 as I said in the other thread), there are 9 lords that brought men to gather this total; Umbers, Karstarks, Boltons, Hornwoods, Cerwyns, Tallharts, Glovers, Mormonts and Starks. If Roose brought more men than Karstarks, even by a small amount such as a hundred or two, It'd make the other houses, including the Starks, pretty much powerless.

If we give the Starks (they are the power in the North after all, perhaps only exceeded by Manderlys, like Hightowers are for the Reach) as many men as Karstarks, things get even worse. With 2300 for Karstarks and Starks and 2400 for Roose to have him more than Karstarks We are left with 5000 men for the other 6 lords and some mountain clans however few they may be.

How many men do you suggest for Cerwyns who easily raised 300 men in a very short time? For Glovers whose remaining forest clansmen brought Stannis' number to 5000 when he had less than 3000 mountain clansmen (3000 is the highest number Jon gives for them, some went with Robb and while most of the remaining ones joined Stannis, still not all.) and he had less than 1500( he sailed North with no more than 1500, lost some in battle, had more than 1000 afterwards) of his own? Umbers I won't speak of because "all the real men" went south.

Going back to the Starks, they easily raised 600 in a short notice from the nearby holdfasts alone (near 200 were WF guards but they too should count as they were also new men as Roob took the previous guards south) Obviously Starks who could quickly raise 600 from their surroundings after they have already sent a host south should have more men than Karstarks who are left with no more suitable men after they have raised 450-750 or Boltons who were raising an additional host to attack on Hornwood lands but don't even have 600 with all the time they had to prepare. Giving Roose as many men as Karstarks or even more than them simply doesn't work.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Corvo the Crow

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3 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

The problem is not Manderly having 1500 horsemen, it is Roose having 1000. Boltons were the second most powerful house in the North, true but the emphasis should be on the "were". Their lands extended from Last River to the east to White Knife to the West, going as far south as Sheepshead hills. Most of these lands belong to the Hornwoods now; their lands are bordered by Sheepshead hills to the south and White Knife to the West, as evidenced by wanting to dam the White Knife. To their north/northeast would be Bolton lands as it is said that their lands adjoin.

We know the Boltons' current lands to be bordered by last river to the east and lonely hills to the North and the only other bordering lord we know is Hornwood to the south/southwest. With Dreadfort also on the northern/eastern bank of the weeping water as evidenced by Theon crossing it when he escaped with Kyra, they may currently have no lands at all on the western side. The land he holds is smaller than Umbers' and possibly also Karstarks' while being similar in geography. So where does he find the money to have 1000 mounted men or the land to give them to have them as landed knights/masters? Karstarks have near 3000 men (2300 with Robb, 450 with Stannis, and less than 300 with Rodrik) but they don't even have 400 horsemen. Again, where does Roose get the money for equipping a thousand or the land to give them so they can equip themselves?

 

Below are two descriptions of northmen soldiers in battles where horses are involved;

 

First is from Dance of Dragons, second from Battle of Winterfell. Notice how the first ones have axes and swords while the others have battle axes and greatswords. Also notice the splintered shields, how did they get their shields splintered if they were fighting ahorse against those afoot(caught unprepared)? Most of Ramsay's men were foot soldiers.

 

Also as a sidenote, Roose probably do not even have as many men as Karstarks, his numbers are possibly very close to Karstarks, but not as many.

We see in Winterfell Greatjon threatening to take his levies back if Hornwoods and Cerwyns are ahead of him in the order of march. He sees himself to be entitled to march ahead of them, only reason I can see is having brought more men.

In MC we see Robb, Umbers and Karstarks each having a tower, while others are not. Why these houses and not the others? Greatjon I can understand because he is Robb's right hand, but why is Rickard given a seat while Roose was not? Only reason I can think of to be given this honour is having brought the most men, which makes sense seeing the men they brought amounts to %19 of the near 12000.

Not counting  Mountain clansmen (I think their contribtution is as low as 300 as I said in the other thread), there are 9 lords that brought men to gather this total; Umbers, Karstarks, Boltons, Hornwoods, Cerwyns, Tallharts, Glovers, Mormonts and Starks. If Roose brought more men than Karstarks, even by a small amount such as a hundred or two, It'd make the other houses, including the Starks, pretty much powerless.

If we give the Starks (they are the power in the North after all, perhaps only exceeded by Manderlys, like Hightowers are for the Reach) as many men as Karstarks, things get even worse. With 2300 for Karstarks and Starks and 2400 for Roose to have him more than Karstarks We are left with 5000 men for the other 6 lords and some mountain clans however few they may be.

How many men do you suggest for Cerwyns who easily raised 300 men in a very short time? For Glovers whose remaining forest clansmen brought Stannis' number to 5000 when he had less than 3000 mountain clansmen (3000 is the highest number Jon gives for them, some went with Robb and while most of the remaining ones joined Stannis, still not all.) and he had less than 1500( he sailed North with no more than 1500, lost some in battle, had more than 1000 afterwards) of his own? Umbers I won't speak of because "all the real men" went south.

Going back to the Starks, they easily raised 600 in a short notice from the nearby holdfasts alone (near 200 were WF guards but they too should count as they were also new men as Roob took the previous guards south) Obviously Starks who could quickly raise 600 from their surroundings after they have already sent a host south should have more men than Karstarks who are left with no more suitable men after they have raised 450-750 or Boltons who were raising an additional host to attack on Hornwood lands but don't even have 600 with all the time they had to prepare. Giving Roose as many men as Karstarks or even more than them simply doesn't work.

 

 

 

 

Disagree. The Boltons were quite clearly the largest contributors to Robb's host. And that was without 600 men fron Roose's Dreadfort garrison. 

How do you know that the Dreadfort lands are similar in fertility or population density to the Karstark lands? In fact, the total heavy cavalry numbers at Winterfell proves that the Karstarks cavalry numbers were much lower than average. The Boltons are a prime candidate for one of the Houses that compensated for this, to bring up the total heavy cavalry number in Robb's Winterfell host. If all Houses matched the Karstark cavalry percentage of 12% then Robb would have had about 1400 heavy horse instead of the 3300 he actually had.

Therefore the Boltons brought far more cavalry than the Karstarks, to compensate for the Karstark, Mountain Clan and Mormont low cavalry numbers.

Interestingly, another House who seems to have contributes a high proportion of cavalry are the Umbers, given that their infantry is almost never mentioned, very few if any Umber dead are mentioned at the Green Fork, while they are very prominent in Robb's cavalry host in the West.

The Karstarks seem to have had an anomalously low cavalry number, compared to other powerful Houses.

Edited by Free Northman Reborn

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19 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The Karstarks seem to have had an anomalously low cavalry number, compared to other powerful Houses.

Actually no, they weren't. The more number of men a house can field, the fewer their percentage of horse becomes in their total, those who are able to field fewer men have a higher percentage. Of course how rich a lord also makes a difference so while the Karstarks have 300 horse (%13 of their force) in their army, Bolton's, for example, , could have both a higher percentage of horse because of what I said above, and have more horses too, if they are a bit richer, while they still have fewer men in total.

As a sidenote, Boltons don't appear to be rich. Roose marries fat Walda for the sole reason of her being fat and Walder Frey giving her weight in silver for a Dowry. He could very well have married a more comely Frey girl, or even a widow known to be fertile because it seems to me even though he thinks boy lords are a bane for a house and Ramsay would probably kill any other children Roose will have, he's on the fence with whether keeping Ramsay alive or not. Northern lords, while begrudgingly follow Roose's leadership, they would off Ramsay the first chance they get, especially Lady Dustin and her family, Ryswells.

Below are also some numbers we know for individual lords

Houses Dondarrion and Caron raise 2000 foot and 400 horse each, though some of them are hedge knights like Ser Arlan. We don't know whether they are bigger houses or smaller ones in their region but I'd go for bigger; being able to raise 2400 man in Stormlands, one of the smallest regions, while Karstarks from the North only raised 2300 at start (they are depleted once they reach 2750-3000)they are very likely a bigger house. Dornish Marches, while not vast in area is very likely to be fertile, as seen with Selmys' castle name, in some areas at least. both have 1:5 horse to foot

 

Tywin Lannister, who shits gold by the way, marches from Casterly Rock on Tarbecks and Reynes with 500 horse and 3000 foot. 1:6 horse to foot

Florents, who could have 2000 men, still had 800 men in Dragonstone. This is after their infantry are killed in bitterbridge and they lost men on Blackwater because they were a part of Stannis' Van. Near 1:1 horse to foot. They also appear to be among the smaller great lords of their region; Randyll Tarly says Hightowers can field three times as many men as any other Tyrell bannermen. Hightowers have a lot more than 9000, possibly a lot more than 5 times of Florents.

Walder Frey has 1000 knights and near 3000 foot at twins, of which he left 400 as garrison.  After losing ~1250 men (~150 horse by my calculations and 1100 infantry) he still has ~4000 men in the field and also has garrisons in Twins and Seagard. Disregarding the garrison of Seagard, he has raised 1000 knights and 5050 infantry so far. 1:5 horse to foot, could possibly go lower, if he has any more men left to raise.They are a very rich house too being able to offer a fat  daughter's weight in silver as a dowry, and this is just one among many others he is willing to marry off with the same deal.

Not a house, but the army of most of two regions houses come together, Renly has 80000 men at Bitterbridge. Of his 20000 horse only 10000 are knights/heavy lancers, rest are light horse and freeriders. 1:7 horse to foot if only heavy horse is counted.

 

Also some non numerical information: Tallharts, a smaller house, still has enough horses to spare them on young boys even after sending a force south. Mormonts, also a smaller house, are mentioned to be with Robb's cavalry forces, their infantry is never mentioned. Two smaller houses with enough cavalry worth mentioning but not enough infantry.

Barrowton is the second largest settlement in the North . Yet  only time we heard mention of Dustin are in the form of infantry, Stout men holding the Ruby Ford. Second biggest settlement and very much likely to be richer than Boltons yet no mention of their cavalry.

 

In light of all these, Roose can not be the one making up for Karstarks lack of horse.

Edited by Corvo the Crow

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3 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Actually no, they weren't. The more number of men a house can field, the fewer their percentage of horse becomes in their total, those who are able to field fewer men have a higher percentage. Of course how rich a lord also makes a difference so while the Karstarks have 300 horse (%13 of their force) in their army, Bolton's, for example, , could have both a higher percentage of horse because of what I said above, and have more horses too, if they are a bit richer, while they still have fewer men in total.

As a sidenote, Boltons don't appear to be rich. Roose marries fat Walda for the sole reason of her being fat and Walder Frey giving her weight in silver for a Dowry. He could very well have married a more comely Frey girl, or even a widow known to be fertile because it seems to me even though he thinks boy lords are a bane for a house and Ramsay would probably kill any other children Roose will have, he's on the fence with whether keeping Ramsay alive or not. Northern lords, while begrudgingly follow Roose's leadership, they would off Ramsay the first chance they get, especially Lady Dustin and her family, Ryswells.

Below are also some numbers we know for individual lords

Houses Dondarrion and Caron raise 2000 foot and 400 horse each, though some of them are hedge knights like Ser Arlan. We don't know whether they are bigger houses or smaller ones in their region but I'd go for bigger; being able to raise 2400 man in Stormlands, one of the smallest regions, while Karstarks from the North only raised 2300 at start (they are depleted once they reach 2750-3000)they are very likely a bigger house. Dornish Marches, while not vast in area is very likely to be fertile, as seen with Selmys' castle name, in some areas at least. both have 1:5 horse to foot

 

Tywin Lannister, who shits gold by the way, marches from Casterly Rock on Tarbecks and Reynes with 500 horse and 3000 foot. 1:6 horse to foot

Florents, who could have 2000 men, still had 800 men in Dragonstone. This is after their infantry are killed in bitterbridge and they lost men on Blackwater because they were a part of Stannis' Van. Near 1:1 horse to foot. They also appear to be among the smaller great lords of their region; Randyll Tarly says Hightowers can field three times as many men as any other Tyrell bannermen. Hightowers have a lot more than 9000, possibly a lot more than 5 times of Florents.

Walder Frey has 1000 knights and near 3000 foot at twins, of which he left 400 as garrison.  After losing ~1250 men (~150 horse by my calculations and 1100 infantry) he still has ~4000 men in the field and also has garrisons in Twins and Seagard. Disregarding the garrison of Seagard, he has raised 1000 knights and 5050 infantry so far. 1:5 horse to foot, could possibly go lower, if he has any more men left to raise.They are a very rich house too being able to offer a fat  daughter's weight in silver as a dowry, and this is just one among many others he is willing to marry off with the same deal.

Not a house, but the army of most of two regions houses come together, Renly has 80000 men at Bitterbridge. Of his 20000 horse only 10000 are knights/heavy lancers, rest are light horse and freeriders. 1:7 horse to foot if only heavy horse is counted.

 

Also some non numerical information: Tallharts, a smaller house, still has enough horses to spare them on young boys even after sending a force south. Mormonts, also a smaller house, are mentioned to be with Robb's cavalry forces, their infantry is never mentioned. Two smaller houses with enough cavalry worth mentioning but not enough infantry.

Barrowton is the second largest settlement in the North . Yet  only time we heard mention of Dustin are in the form of infantry, Stout men holding the Ruby Ford. Second biggest settlement and very much likely to be richer than Boltons yet no mention of their cavalry.

 

In light of all these, Roose can not be the one making up for Karstarks lack of horse.

This post doesn't make sense.

Your argument seems to be that the fewer men a House raises, the larger the portion of horse will be. This might or might not be true in specific instances (because a particular Lord rushed his horse out first, and the infantry from outlying areas are not available yet, or whatever), but it cannot be extrapolated into a general rule. Equally, it cannot be used to try and prove the reverse, namely that a large number of horse automatically means a smaller total host size. I'm not understanding the evidence you try to use to support this argument.

Are you saying that if the North only raised 2000 horse in total, they would have had 50,000 men in the field? Are you implying some kind of sliding scale where the lower the portion of cavalry goes, the higher the overall host size? It is obviously nonsensical.

If a House has a large portion of horse, it is usually due to two possible reasons: The Lord is very wealthy and can afford to equip a disproportionate number of cavalry, or else he could raise his cavalry faster, and the bulk of his infantry have not been mobilized yet.

However, this has a limit. Logic would dictate that the West is the richest and therefore has the highest ratio of cavalry. And yet Tywin raised 10,000 cavalry out of 35000 total forces. Meaning a ratio of 1 horse for every 2.5 infantry. Meaning 28% of his host was cavalry. So I highly doubt any major lord is going to exceed that 28% ratio.

Indeed, we see that Robb's 12k had 3300 cavalry, meaning a ratio of 27.5%. Very similar to Tywin's 28%. However, that is more likely not because they match the West's wealth, but because of the second reason I mentioned above, namely that much of their infantry could not be raised in time. So their cavalry was disproportionately high at that point.

We know the Boltons make up a significant majority of the 4000 men that Theon saw returning up the Neck. Meaning 2500-3000 seems a very reasonable estimate for the number of returning Bolton men. Even they would have had to suffer some losses and desertions along the way, so their original number would have been even higher. And if even 25% of that number was cavalry, well, then they had between 600-800 cavalry with Robb in the South.

Edited by Free Northman Reborn

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