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What if Robb took Casterly Rock?


Abdallah

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1 hour ago, Lord Lannister said:

Just because characters and creatures in a fantasy novel have supernatural attributes, that doesn't mean there aren't limitations on their abilities.

true but theres bound to be one or 2 hidden passages Greywind could find. 

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12 minutes ago, Abdallah said:

true but theres bound to be one or 2 hidden passages Greywind could find. 

There has to be? Why? Deus ex wolfina?

The direwolves are basically glorified blood hounds. They can track a scent with otherworldly abilities, sure. That doesn't mean they have x-ray vision that can see through walls. So that would mean there would have to be people going through these secret passages for Grey Wind to pick up a scent to them. So if people are going through them, that means the defenders know about them and would defend them. This is even assuming the defenders are nice enough to allow a direwolf to sniff about the perimeter of Casterly Rock to begin with.

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9 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

There has to be? Why? Deus ex wolfina?

The direwolves are basically glorified blood hounds. They can track a scent with otherworldly abilities, sure. That doesn't mean they have x-ray vision that can see through walls. So that would mean there would have to be people going through these secret passages for Grey Wind to pick up a scent to them. So if people are going through them, that means the defenders know about them and would defend them. This is even assuming the defenders are nice enough to allow a direwolf to sniff about the perimeter of Casterly Rock to begin with.

Theres also the smell of rats in abandoned tunnels or lightly held tunnels. The more entry points the easier it is to take a fortress. 

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Just say he does take Casterly Rock and Lannisport. Well first of all I doubt he would be able to accomplish such a feat without taking huge casulties in the process. But even if he didn't he and his army may still take a while to take those places and secure them all the while the Lannister and Tyrell army will be marching towards them from both sides. Robb will be in the same position as Theon was when he trapped himself in Winterfell.

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In addition, I'm going to assume that the Red Wedding is avoided somehow, and that the Frey's remain on Robb's side.   But I will allow that Tywin still gets assasinated and Cersei takes over.

I don't think ti matters one way or the other.   Yes, it would be a blow to the Iron Throne, and would be a good bargainng chip for forcing them to let the North go.  But I think even if that happened, the Lannister/Tyrell/Crown forces (which I will simply call "the Crown forces") would not accept a peace, and would march their 80k+ men west (probably with Jaime as commander) and either meet Robb's forces (which altogether is maybe 25k) in the field, or start sieging his holdings if he retreats.   If they siege his holdings, I don't think it matters if he holds Casterly Rock or not., as in order to enforce their claims (over the Riverlands and the North) the Crown will really have to retake Riverrun, Winterfell, The Twins, etc.   Forcing them to retake Casterly Rock would just delay them and/or split off a small number of their forces (enough to maintain a siege against Casterly Rock)

On one hand, I could see the Crown forces simply failing to achieve their objective of reconquering the Riverlands/North, as they will have a tough time to do so before winter comes and it will be unfamiliar territory.   On the other hand, I could see them winning a war of attrition.   Particularly because Robb will have to drive the Ironborn out of the North, and will inevitably lose men and resources in the process.

So taking Casterly Rock, probalby gains Robb very little.   Yes there is loot there, but probably not enough to affect the outcome.

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It depends on when in the war Robb takes Casterly Rock, but for the most part, he would be trapped and likely killed one way or another, even if he did succeed in capturing the Rock.

But that said, if he captured Casterly Rock, no matter what else happened to him, Robb would go down in history as one of the greatest conquerors of all time. No matter how brutal his death, he'd be the man who captured Casterly Rock. No amount of anti-Stark propaganda will be able to undo that accomplishment.

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