The Littlefinger Enigma!

[Knight Of Winter]

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But he clearly mistrusts him and takes steps to eventually get rid of him, but he can't in the middle of the war. Sacking Littlefinger would have effectively closed down the treasury, and while the Lannisters have a lot of gold Tywin couldn't really transport any coin to KL prior to the Blackwater - if the Goldcloaks and other key personnel in the city were no longer paid, KL would not be able to withstand a siege even for a day

 

5 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Kings Landing was about to be under siege and that's not the best time to get rid of the man who pretty much runs the city and has men in all the key positions , Tyrion figured that after the war he would have time to get rid of Litttlefinger but i did not work out the way he wanted. 

The fact that KL is preparing for a siege doesn't mean it's a bad time to root out potential traitors. In fact, it's outright the best and most important time to do that. Having traitor as a minister during peacetime is bad enough. During war it's outright catastrophic.

And does that impression that KL's finances will stop if LF is deposed come from? He manages the money, he doesn't produce it - and new Master of Coins could do it just as well. That's like saying a state will go bankrupt if the Minister of finances is sacked.

What's also weird that Tyrion doesn't move against LF after the war, as well. Instead of doing something, or at least informing Tywin of LF's true nature, Tyrion does nothing and lets LF's career to prosper under Lannister regime.

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is an explanation why Littlefinger told the dagger lie and why Varys didn't contradict him there. Both men must have known that it was Robert who won the dagger, not Tyrion, and if the Starks learned that it could lead to trouble, too. By the time Littlefinger tells his lie neither he nor Varys knew why Cat wants to know about the dagger, or whether the actual owner of the dagger, Robert, has something to do with it. Presumably they have concluded that Cat's wounds were caused by the dagger, so there was some sort of assassination attempt. But they both have no way to know that Bran didn't just fall or that there was an attempt on his life.

Maybe not at that point, but Varys learns of dagger's true nature pretty quick. And yet he doesn't tell Ned about it in the few months Ned was Hand. In AGOT, Varys wanted peace, because Aegon's planned invasion wasn't ready yet. LF wanted war, which is why he prompted Ned to investigate Jon Arryn's death. If Varys wanted to stop LF's warmongering plans, why couldn't he tell Ned about the dagger lie at any point during the AGOT? That would cause Ned to, at least, stop trusting LF.

5 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

Did Varys want to foil Littlefinger's plans ? frankly the relationship between Varys and Littlefinger was strange all around so Varys may have had his reasons to keep his mouth shut.

Who in the court would be an expert on who Tyrion did or did not bet on during a joust months ago? Who's to say that Tyrion decided to bet against Jaimie that one time? Even if Ned had any evidence the Littlefinger could just say that he was drunk and must have misremembered , 

It doesn't matter what anyone in the court can or can't remember (although it seems well established in court that Tyrion always bet on Jaime) or whether LF can claim he was drunk. If two random courtiers tell Ned teh story that doesn't match LF's (which is what would have happened if Ned bothered to investigate, even a little), Ned would stop trusting LF. Really, you encourage me to investigate, go against many powerful people and stood by the this entire time, and now you're telling me that you must have misremembered? Anyone sane will conclude that LF is somehow playing him and stop cooperating immediately. And without Ned's trust and cooperation, all of LF's plans in AGOT are null and void.

[Blackfish Tully]

18 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Also note that Tyrion doesn't want to simply expose LF's role in the dagger indecent, but to utterly destroy him politically, financially and reputationally. So after the war Tyrion is going to look into the books, dig into his past, find someway to gain leverage over him and then taste the sweet cold dish of revenge has his head goes bouncing across the floor -- that is, as long as LF doesn't do that to Tyrion first.

Also the fact that there really is no real evidence for the dagger incidence except one comment from Littlefinger that he could deny making or simply say he misremembered.

[OwloftheRainwood]

54 minutes ago, Knight Of Winter said:

If Varys wanted to stop LF's warmongering plans, why couldn't he tell Ned about the dagger lie at any point during the AGOT? That would cause Ned to, at least, stop trusting LF.

As you stated, Varys wanted to slow down the war, not stop it. What makes you think Ned would automatically trust Varys > LF? His POV states multiple times clearly he doesn't trust Varys. Maybe if both Varys and others informed on LF, he would've figured it out. But Ned seems to cut LF slack due to Cat. This is a mistake both him and Brandon made. Anyway, what really escalated the war was Joffrey going rogue on Ned, something neither LF nor Varys counted on.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Knight Of Winter said:

stuff

Well, I can't speak for George, of course, but keep in mind that Tyrion actually wants to do justice in ACoK. He doesn't want to punish innocents or be a tyrant (at least that's objective at first). Remember that he doesn't just sack Pycelle on a fake accusation (or Varys and Littlefinger, too) but on the basis of an actual crime. The same is true for Janos Slynt.

The text of ACoK makes it clear that Tyrion isn't sure that Littlefinger is a traitor. And his dilemma really is that he doesn't know if he would dare touch him even if he was, suggesting that his position and connections have made him pretty much inviolable whether you want that or not (actually, I'm with you there that this is somewhat odd, but it is what the books says).

But even if we imagine for a moment Tyrion would have sacked Littlefinger he most likely wouldn't have gotten away with that. Cersei/Joffrey wouldn't have allowed it, and unlike Pycelle Littlefinger had a lot of friends in the city - one can imagine that Tyrion wouldn't have survived for long after he had thrown Littlefinger in a black cell - even the Kettleblacks were his at that point.

The dagger story alone wouldn't have helped Varys convict or even sack Littlefinger. He could either have denied that he had ever said that to Catelyn (after all, officially she never was in KL!) or he could have said he misremembered or that he chose to incriminate Tyrion rather than the king - whom he was sworn to serve.

This brings us to the dagger:

The Starks and eventually Varys/Littlefinger knew what the dagger was used for. One wonders who they thought was behind the attempt (and what motive they had). However, one of Varys' major concerns during his talk with Illyrio is the botched attempt on Bran, a thing that Ned will never forgive. The truth about the dagger would lay the blame at Robert's or Cersei's feet. With the king winning the dagger the queen and perhaps another person close to the royal family like Jaime (or even Tyrion or Joffrey) would have had access to it, creating pretty much exactly the same situation as Littlefinger did with his story - except with the exception that Ned would have greatly mistrusted Robert and Cersei now, and perhaps even have confronted them over the entire issue, leading to a completely uncontrollable scenario.

As weird as it sounds but it actually seems both Varys and Littlefinger may have wanted to cool things down with the dagger lie, not fuel the tensions. Remember, Littlefinger had no means to foresee (and nothing to do) with Tyrion's abduction. It was the result of his lie but nothing he had actively planned.

The dagger lie backfires on Littlefinger on multiple occasions. He hasn't planned for Tyrion's abductions, he never wanted Tyrion to learn about that, and he certainly did not want Ned to reject his counsel to support Joffrey's ascension for the time being on the basis of the dagger lie. He is really pissed when Ned rejects his good and solid counsel and completely fails to understand that he has right now told him more or less directly that he could not possibly support King Stannis.

As to Tyrion not trying to oust Littlefinger later:

Why should he? He has much bigger problems. Half his face is missing, he is afraid Cersei tried to kill him on the Blackwater (the idea that Moore might have been working for Littlefinger never even crossed his mind), he is obsessed with Shae, quite depressed, and has very bad relations with his father. Littlefinger is the least of his concerns.

Besides - if he had tried to accuse Petyr of anything he would have failed completely. Littlefinger was the hero of the hour at this point. He had Tywin's ear, he had arranged the marriage between Joffrey and Margaery, saving Joffrey's ass in the process, and he was the architect of the victory on the Blackwater. It was his idea that Garlan Tyrell wear Renly's armor, dealing the deadliest blow to Stannis' men.

Tyrion tries to warn his father about Littlefinger once (when Tywin reveals that it was Littlefinger who told the Lannisters about the Willas-Sansa plan) but Tywin cuts him off, citing Littlefinger's support during the war.

[BalerionTheCat]

Littlefinger is judged very efficient at his position. He has no land or such, no armed force, no Bannerman or whatever. He is not really much more a Lord than Varys. He is a liar. But everyone is. And except Varys, no one really known how much LF is dangerous. In fact all, more or less, despise and underestimate him.

Only Varys has a good understanding of what LF is. But for now, it is fine by him, as both of them are seeking chaos. And each believes he could kill the other as soon he will become a bother.

[Blackfish Tully]

1 hour ago, Knight Of Winter said:

 

The fact that KL is preparing for a siege doesn't mean it's a bad time to root out potential traitors. In fact, it's outright the best and most important time to do that. Having traitor as a minister during peacetime is bad enough. During war it's outright catastrophic.

 

did Tyrion ever think that Littlefinger was a traitor? Littlefinger was the one who got the Gold Cloaks for Cersei pretty much saving the Lannisters in Kings Landing , Tyrion suspected that Littlefinger was shady but never really considered him a traitor. 

1 hour ago, Knight Of Winter said:

 

What's also weird that Tyrion doesn't move against LF after the war, as well. Instead of doing something, or at least informing Tywin of LF's true nature, Tyrion does nothing and lets LF's career to prosper under Lannister regime.

 

It was to late Littlefinger was the hero of the hour and Tyrion was pushed aside , anything he said to Tywin about Littlefinger at that point would sound like sour grapes. 

 

1 hour ago, Knight Of Winter said:

.

And does that impression that KL's finances will stop if LF is deposed come from? He manages the money, he doesn't produce it - and new Master of Coins could do it just as well. That's like saying a state will go bankrupt if the Minister of finances is sacked.

 

Littlefinger had his hands into everything and had loyal men in all the top positions , could Tyrion maybe manage without Littlefinger ? maybe but why take the chance , their prospects were bleak enough.  

 

1 hour ago, Knight Of Winter said:

Maybe not at that point, but Varys learns of dagger's true nature pretty quick. And yet he doesn't tell Ned about it in the few months Ned was Hand. In AGOT, Varys wanted peace, because Aegon's planned invasion wasn't ready yet. LF wanted war, which is why he prompted Ned to investigate Jon Arryn's death. If Varys wanted to stop LF's warmongering plans, why couldn't he tell Ned about the dagger lie at any point during the AGOT? That would cause Ned to, at least, stop trusting LF.

 

would it? Littlefinger himself told Ned not to trust him but he still did so why would Varys saying anything against Littelfinger change anything for Ned .Ned worked himself into a corner where trusting Littlefinger was his only option. 

 

1 hour ago, Knight Of Winter said:

 

It doesn't matter what anyone in the court can or can't remember (although it seems well established in court that Tyrion always bet on Jaime) or whether LF can claim he was drunk. If two random courtiers tell Ned teh story that doesn't match LF's (which is what would have happened if Ned bothered to investigate, even a little), Ned would stop trusting LF. Really, you encourage me to investigate, go against many powerful people and stood by the this entire time, and now you're telling me that you must have misremembered? Anyone sane will conclude that LF is somehow playing him and stop cooperating immediately. And without Ned's trust and cooperation, all of LF's plans in AGOT are null and void.

How could Ned have stopped Littlefinger's plans?  Ned was staggering his way to a confrontation with Cersie and Littlefinger just helped him along the way . Even if Ned did not trust Littlefinger he would have not changed any of his actions. 

[Ser Leftwich]

Another question (to which there is no answer) is, who was Robert's Master of Coin before LF? If they were bad, a poor little lordling from the Fingers would, seemingly, be more malleable. Who also had a recommendation from Jon Arryn.

[Blackfish Tully]

11 minutes ago, Ser Leftwich said:

Another question (to which there is no answer) is, who was Robert's Master of Coin before LF? If they were bad, a poor little lordling from the Fingers would, seemingly, be more malleable. Who also had a recommendation from Jon Arryn.

another question would be , how much did Littlefinger play into the failure of the previous Master of Coin ? Littlefinger is smart enough to become a trusted Lieutenant to the previous Master of Coin while stabbing him in the back and making him look bad to Jon Arryn . 

[LadyoftheNorth72]

The more you run around telling everyone how negligible you are, the less attention they'll pay to what you're doing. 

People at court are so accustomed to others talking themselves up or making boasts they cannot follow through on (plus they discount him for his low beginnings and he encourages that), they forget to wonder what he might be doing in his spare time. He's assumed to be just as he presents himself. - someone who is of low birth but came up due to his talents for financing the kingdom. So nobody bothers to concern themselves with his politics. 

[Lord Varys]

7 minutes ago, Ser Leftwich said:

Another question (to which there is no answer) is, who was Robert's Master of Coin before LF? If they were bad, a poor little lordling from the Fingers would, seemingly, be more malleable. Who also had a recommendation from Jon Arryn.

We have indeed no clue about that. But since you mention this I'd like to add that while we also do not know when exactly Littlefinger rose to the position of Master of Coin, we do know that he did not serve in that capacity since the beginning of Robert's reign.

People usually forget that Littlefinger wasn't 'always there' throughout Robert's reign. It seems as if he wasn't even at court during Cat/Ned's last visit with the king (which seems to have been during/after the Greyjoy Rebellion) since Cat hasn't seen him since he left Riverrun and Ned first meets him in AGoT.

My guess is that Littlefinger is perhaps 3-5 years Master of Coin in 298 AC, not much longer. And from that we can conclude that he most certainly isn't responsible for the loss of the gold Aerys' had left nor a reason for the Crown's financial problems are the amount of debts. Littlefinger's predecessors in the office would have begun making debts. That most certainly wasn't a concept he first introduced.

While I believe he is also embezzling the Crown and making money for himself via simony there is no doubt that he greatly increased the incomes of the Crown - the fact that it also spends much more on a regular basis isn't necessarily his fault.

And the Small Council is loosely aware of the financial situation of the Crown. Littlefinger makes it quite clear that Pycelle knows about the Crown's finances, suggesting that Littlefinger occasionally gives reports on that supported by the books. Whether those are the actual books is another matter, of course. But leaving traces others could backtrack would be a huge mistakes. If anyone found out that he was stealing vast sums that could come back haunt him.

If Littlefinger was working in the treasury before he became Master of Coin he may have had something to do with the downfall of his predecessor. But then, this may not even have been necessary. Considering Robert's policy I'm pretty sure he had multiple Masters of Coin throughout his early reign and Littlefinger was eventually only chosen because Jon Arryn had realized that a man with his talents could really help in the situation they were in. I'm pretty sure if they hadn't been desperate a man of his origins would never have been given such an exalted office.

[Neds Secret]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We have indeed no clue about that. But since you mention this I'd like to add that while we also do not know when exactly Littlefinger rose to the position of Master of Coin, we do know that he did not serve in that capacity since the beginning of Robert's reign.

People usually forget that Littlefinger wasn't 'always there' throughout Robert's reign. It seems as if he wasn't even at court during Cat/Ned's last visit with the king (which seems to have been during/after the Greyjoy Rebellion) since Cat hasn't seen him since he left Riverrun and Ned first meets him in AGoT.

My guess is that Littlefinger is perhaps 3-5 years Master of Coin in 298 AC, not much longer. And from that we can conclude that he most certainly isn't responsible for the loss of the gold Aerys' had left nor a reason for the Crown's financial problems are the amount of debts. Littlefinger's predecessors in the office would have begun making debts. That most certainly wasn't a concept he first introduced.

While I believe he is also embezzling the Crown and making money for himself via simony there is no doubt that he greatly increased the incomes of the Crown - the fact that it also spends much more on a regular basis isn't necessarily his fault.

And the Small Council is loosely aware of the financial situation of the Crown. Littlefinger makes it quite clear that Pycelle knows about the Crown's finances, suggesting that Littlefinger occasionally gives reports on that supported by the books. Whether those are the actual books is another matter, of course. But leaving traces others could backtrack would be a huge mistakes. If anyone found out that he was stealing vast sums that could come back haunt him.

If Littlefinger was working in the treasury before he became Master of Coin he may have had something to do with the downfall of his predecessor. But then, this may not even have been necessary. Considering Robert's policy I'm pretty sure he had multiple Masters of Coin throughout his early reign and Littlefinger was eventually only chosen because Jon Arryn had realized that a man with his talents could really help in the situation they were in. I'm pretty sure if they hadn't been desperate a man of his origins would never have been given such an exalted office.

He gives reports but it does seem that he must be embezzling to have attained the wealth he appears to have

[Neds Secret]

12 hours ago, LadyoftheNorth72 said:

The more you run around telling everyone how negligible you are, the less attention they'll pay to what you're doing. 

People at court are so accustomed to others talking themselves up or making boasts they cannot follow through on (plus they discount him for his low beginnings and he encourages that), they forget to wonder what he might be doing in his spare time. He's assumed to be just as he presents himself. - someone who is of low birth but came up due to his talents for financing the kingdom. So nobody bothers to concern themselves with his politics. 

Yes, but does nobody wonder why litllefinger who came from nowhere is able to bet at the "WHALES table". , I mean, he is gambling against the lannisters in tourneys against princes and the queens brother, it would certainly be suspicious if somebody considered it, I mean he was essentially just a bureaucrat before he was master of coin.

[Neds Secret]

On 10 February 2016 at 7:43 PM, Lord Eaglesteel said:

I think the genaral opinion was that LF actually did a good job bringing in more money than his predecessors. It was Robert who managed to spend even more. So guess they all thought debt would be far bigger if it wasn't for LF.

As for being devious and not to be trusted... isn't that common in the small council? 

It may be common for the small council to us as readers but littlefinger flat out says to other members of the small council that he is not to be trusted, it's about the only thing he says to Ned Stark!

[Neds Secret]

On 11 February 2016 at 7:06 AM, BalerionTheCat said:

Littlefinger is judged very efficient at his position. He has no land or such, no armed force, no Bannerman or whatever. He is not really much more a Lord than Varys. He is a liar. But everyone is. And except Varys, no one really known how much LF is dangerous. In fact all, more or less, despise and underestimate him.

Only Varys has a good understanding of what LF is. But for now, it is fine by him, as both of them are seeking chaos. And each believes he could kill the other as soon he will become a bother.

I believe that both Lf and Varys both underestimate the danger of each other and you state that they both believe they could kill the other as soon as they become a bother but I feel that they are both bothering each other already, which leaves the question as to how either of them would kill the other. How would either of them plan it and who would they both try to pin the murder on? Tyrion seems to be the go to guy but he is busy in Meeren at the moment.

[Lord Wraith]

On 2/11/2016 at 6:16 PM, Ser Leftwich said:

Another question (to which there is no answer) is, who was Robert's Master of Coin before LF? If they were bad, a poor little lordling from the Fingers would, seemingly, be more malleable. Who also had a recommendation from Jon Arryn.

Quote

Ten years ago, Jon Arryn had given him a minor sinecure in customs, where Lord Petyr had soon distinguished himself by bringing in three times as much as any of the king's other collectors. King Robert had been a prodigious spender. A man like Petyr Baelish, who had a gift for rubbing two golden dragons together to breed a third, was invaluable to his Hand. Littlefinger's rise had been arrow-swift. Within three years of his coming to court, he was master of coin and a member of the small council, and today the crown's revenues were ten times what they had been under his beleaguered predecessor . . . though the crown's debts had grown vast as well. A master juggler was Petyr Baelish.

Someone not very good at their job by the looks of it. Probably some Lord from the Stormlands but we really don't know.