Was there any foreshadowing for Aegon living?

[Lord Varys]

7 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Not really a stretch. If one live on a riverboat out in the open for fifteen years, or there abouts, it will undoubtedly age one quicker that the pampered lifestyle of a court lady-in-waiting, companion to princesses.

I'm more interested in why you think people who don't like to be tricked, aka the Prince of Dorne, would accept Young Griff's tale without Ashara to vouch for it?

Do you really think Aegon and the gang spend the last decade or so on that poleboat? I really hope not. I think there were traveling the world, seeing things, doing things, not just sitting there essentially doing nothing but bathing the entire day. If they were just having a good time all the time they could have had that in Illyrio's manse or in some his houses in the Flatlands. Nobody is ever going there, after all.

But even if we assume they were on the boat for a decade or so, Lemore is described to be only in her forties, and we don't know Ashara's age (there is only one 2002 SSM on the matter, apparently, suggesting that she would be in her thirties by now, but they aren't binding to George). And Tyrion is just guessing her age.

A stunningly beautiful woman like Ashara Dayne would still have the same fine features and the same beautiful body she still had back in the day. She didn't gain weight, apparently, so all the sun (which wouldn't be that hot as far north as the Flatlands) could done to her was to make the skin age a little bit prematurely. But that doesn't make you look 'more handsome than pretty' it would make you, in Ashara Dayne's case, a very beautiful woman who may have aged a little bit prematurely.

As to the other thing:

Aegon is described as a very beautiful youth. Arianne might fall in love with him, and want to believe that he is her cousin very hard. That will be huge help in getting the help of Dorne. The other thing will be the Golden Company's success. Taking Storm's End will be the beginning, but if Aegon also smashes the Tyrell army marching against him with minimal losses he may actually already have the numbers to take KL. And should he kill Tommen and Myrcella nobody will stand against him.

If Lemore ends up vouching for Aegon's identity anyway - she clearly has some history and personal interest in the whole thing (which makes me believe she is more likely to be Aegon's mother) - then she could easily just be one of Elia's or Rhaella's other ladies-in-waiting or something like that. If George wanted to make her into Ashara he really underdeveloped that plan.

Dorne will join him simply because the Martells will fear that they will gain nothing if they don't join him.

In addition George will have the news about Dany's wedding to Hizdahr and Dany's (alleged) death travel as quickly to Doran as he needs it to arrive there. The news about Hizdahr-Dany alone should already bury the Quentyn plan, but the additional information of Dany's death (it most likely will arrive in that version in Dorne rather than the complex of her having a small chance to have survived) should really make the decision very easy. But we should not underestimate the effect the news about the Dany-Hizdahr match will have. It will tell Doran and Arianne that Daenerys intends to stay in Slaver's Bay, and that she either spurned Quentyn and the Martells or that Quentyn never even reached her. Once it becomes clear that Dany will never go to Westeros (as Mace Tyrell already believes in the Epilogue) - or if she does she'll not come with Quentyn as her consort - the Dany plan should be considered to be officially dead by both Arianne and Doran. Aegon will be their only hope to get what they want - and it will not really matter whether he is the real deal or not.

Either Dorne joins Aegon or they stay at home and get neither revenge nor a chance to regain their position beside a Targaryen king. The marriage between Aegon and Arianne will only come when the news about Quentyn's death arrives, I think, because both Arianne and Aegon will continue to think that turning down the Mother of Dragons might be a do more harm than good. But Arianne - who is already considering Dany as a rival/dangerous character rather than a potential ally - most certainly will not allow Aegon to marry or make peace with Dany if she thinks she caused the death of her brother. 

And finally there is the Robert Strong revelation coming. I really have the feeling that something deep down in Doran will snap when he realizes how the Lannisters fucked with him again, spitting on all Dorne in the process. The man can take a lot of stuff but being handed a fake head while the real murderer of both his sister and his brother is still in the employ of the Lannisters might be a little too much to swallow.

[SFDanny]

I do think Griff and company have travelled the river to Volantis more than once. Maybe a few side trips to other places beyond the river. I think they lead a rough life of work rather than a pampered life of aristocrats. Varys and the company both tell us as much. So, I think Septa Lemore looks older than she really is (her late thirties) and she looks the way a middle age common woman would look in order to fit in. No fancy dress, make-up, etc. to enhance her looks. Tyrion is attracted to her, but says she is in her forties and "handsome." It fits for Ashara seventeen years after she was last seen, and after seventeen years of a hard life.

As to the ability of anyone else to convince the Prince of Dorne Aegon is his nephew come back to life, I think it's impossible given what we know of the man. This is a huge plot hole Martin has explicitly carved for himself and he needs to fill it with the return of Ashara.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, SFDanny said:

stuff

Arianne most likely will make the decision for Doran. She'll write a letter and the armies will march. Doran will not necessarily be asked to give his permission to the whole thing - after all, Arianne has been given the authority to write to the commanders of the two armies in the Boneway and the Prince's Pass directly.

In addition, Ashara would just move the problem from Jon Connington to Ashara Dayne. Perhaps Doran would be more inclined to believe her, perhaps not. We don't know how well Elia got along with Ashara, nor do we know if Doran had a close relationship with Ashara or ever met her face to face.

Not to mention that I think George would have a major problem explaining why Ashara would work with a fake Aegon instead of utilizing her knowledge about Rhaegar's second son, the one Lyanna gave birth to. Presumably she would know about that well. If she works with Varys/Illyrio then they would know about Jon Snow, too, most likely, and while it makes sense that they ignored because of his Stark features, there is simply no reason to believe that Ashara would want to support a fake Targaryen pretender.

In addition there is her own pregnancy to deal with. Was that a ruse, too? For what purpose, exactly? Technically Ashara could also be the mother of Aegon but unless Illyrio impregnated her later after this alleged stillbirth there is no reason to assume that Illyrio is Aegon's father.

Drawing Ashara into all that makes everything much more complicated and confusing.

[SFDanny]

On February 15, 2016 at 4:12 AM, Lord Varys said:

And stuffing

LV,

As I know you are aware, my friend, there is a huge difference between getting Dorne into a war by convincing Arianne, which may well happen, and convincing Prince Doran that his nephew is really alive, and he is not being taken for a ride courtesy of one of Varys's plots. Sooner or later, the five year gap has to be explained, and explained in a way that is not only believable to Doran, but to the reader as well. And perhaps just as important Varys and Illyrio know the answers to the Prince's questions must be believable, and delivered by some one who can persuade him. That's not Connington. That's not Varys or Illyrio themselves. The only way I see that happening is Ashara. As in Ashara saying she took the infant Aegon from King's Landing and took care of him for those five years. True or not. I can't imagine that George set up this five year period of unaccountability and is going to just let it lay there unresolved.

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

LV,

As I know you are aware, my friend, there is a huge difference between getting Dorne into a war by convincing Arianne, which may well happen, and convincing Prince Doran that his nephew is really alive, and he is not being taken for a ride courtesy of one of Varys's plots. Sooner or later, the five year gap has to be explained, and explained in a way that is not only believable to Doran, but to the reader as well. And perhaps just as important Varys and Illyrio know the answers to the Prince's questions must be believable, and delivered by some one who can persuade him. That's not Connington. That's not Varys or Illyrio themselves. The only way I see that happening is Ashara. As in Ashara saying she took the infant Aegon from King's Landing and took care of him for those five years. True or not. I can't imagine that George set up this five year period of unaccountability and is going to just let it lay there unresolved.

I'm not really sure Doran will even meet Aegon or Connington in person. He may have questions and all, but you can decide just not ignore letters, right? As soon as Dorne is committed to Aegon's cause Doran Martell will nothing but a powerless cripple in a wheel chair. Once they are committed to Aegon's cause they can't go back and suddenly question his identity or official heritage. They will have to believe that he is the real deal.

And we cannot even be sure that the five year gap story will even be told to Arianne or Doran. They don't have to. And if Arianne pushes them, they are free to concoct a story that includes Connington being in the whole thing even if he wasn't at this point - after all, Jon would want Arianne to believe the story, so he'll to convince her if he has to.

Then there is the thing that a fake Aegon may all the Martells can hope for to get their revenge. After the news about Dany's death and/or marriage the Quentyn plan is dead, too, even if the news about his death doesn't reach them for awhile.

I find the idea actually quite interesting that Doran Martell eventually makes another rash decision - either after the news about Gregor Clegane still living or after he gets the Dany news (whatever details that might entail).

Not to mention that the risks of Dorne suffering in all that will be very minimal at first if Doran/Arianne only commit themselves after Aegon has smashed the Tyrell army. The capture of Storm's End isn't going to be enough for them to join Aegon - and even if it was, it doesn't seem likely that the Martells could reach Storm's End before the Tyrell army reached them.

Aegon being victorious both at Storm's End and then against the Tyrells in combination with winning the allegiance and troops of Dorne will be a huge gain for the entire campaign because Doran/Arianne joining Aegon will lend even more credence to his claim to be Prince Aegon. Many lords should assume that Prince Doran was behind that whole plan in the first place... This, in turn, should really bring out all the remaining Targaryen loyalists in the Realm, from Dorne to the Wall. And there may be very well more of them than we assume, even in the North, the West, the Vale, and the Riverlands.

[SFDanny]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm not really sure Doran will even meet Aegon or Connington in person. He may have questions and all, but you can decide just not ignore letters, right? As soon as Dorne is committed to Aegon's cause Doran Martell will nothing but a powerless cripple in a wheel chair. Once they are committed to Aegon's cause they can't go back and suddenly question his identity or official heritage. They will have to believe that he is the real deal.

And we cannot even be sure that the five year gap story will even be told to Arianne or Doran. They don't have to. And if Arianne pushes them, they are free to concoct a story that includes Connington being in the whole thing even if he wasn't at this point - after all, Jon would want Arianne to believe the story, so he'll to convince her if he has to.

Then there is the thing that a fake Aegon may all the Martells can hope for to get their revenge. After the news about Dany's death and/or marriage the Quentyn plan is dead, too, even if the news about his death doesn't reach them for awhile.

I find the idea actually quite interesting that Doran Martell eventually makes another rash decision - either after the news about Gregor Clegane still living or after he gets the Dany news (whatever details that might entail).

Not to mention that the risks of Dorne suffering in all that will be very minimal at first if Doran/Arianne only commit themselves after Aegon has smashed the Tyrell army. The capture of Storm's End isn't going to be enough for them to join Aegon - and even if it was, it doesn't seem likely that the Martells could reach Storm's End before the Tyrell army reached them.

Aegon being victorious both at Storm's End and then against the Tyrells in combination with winning the allegiance and troops of Dorne will be a huge gain for the entire campaign because Doran/Arianne joining Aegon will lend even more credence to his claim to be Prince Aegon. Many lords should assume that Prince Doran was behind that whole plan in the first place... This, in turn, should really bring out all the remaining Targaryen loyalists in the Realm, from Dorne to the Wall. And there may be very well more of them than we assume, even in the North, the West, the Vale, and the Riverlands.

Connington cannot claim to have raised Aegon from the sack forward, as his history from his exile to the time with the Golden Company and on to his supposed death is too well known. Lord Jon has enough to do just to convince the Lords of Westeros he is who he says he is. No, for this story to be believed it needs someone who can convince Prince Doran it is true.

That does not mean Adrianne cannot be fooled into going to war, or that there will be reasons for the Martells to join with the Golden Company, if it has success, against the Lannisters. It just means that Doran is not going to go into this alliance without knowing the truth. He may decide to do so knowing Aegon is a pretender, but he isn't going to let Varys place a pretender on the throne for his own advantage and control.

You are right, that the news of both Quentyn's death and the supposed death of Daenerys, may force the Martells into desperate action, but I'm more inclined to think this would be directed towards the Lannisters and against Cersei's person than an open war against the Throne, facing the Lannisters, the Tyrells, and whoever else is still willing to fight with them.

Still even if it comes to open warfare between the Martells and the Lannister alliance, that is not the same as Prince Doran believing Aegon is his nephew. Martin set this up with this high bar to overcome and with this specific plot hole to be answered for a reason. I don't believe for a second we won't see how Varys and Illyrio have planned to answer it. I think that means they have Ashara in their pocket, or think they have, to do just that.

[BalerionTheCat]

I'm not sure Aegon true identity will really maters. IMO, Houses will side with or against him, according to alliances and opportunities. Dorne is the most likely ally. Doran may wish to wait for Daenerys, despite the Meereen affair. But he may be forced to choose sides sooner. If pissed sufficiently by Cersei, the Tyrell may change sides too and join Aegon. The Faith may support him too. Connington and the GC may conquer the Stormlands. What is left of the Riverlands may join too. Just to get rid of the Lannisters. Others may stay neutral, waiting for Daenerys, or are so blacklisted they can't change sides. Overall, Aegon may have a solid grip on Westeros when Daenerys will arrive.

Only her should act according if she believes Aegon is Rhaegar's son, or an imposter. It will also depend how much control she will have on her allies. The Dothrakis, possibly the R'hllor's priests who will oppose the Faith, possibly the Ironborn. Daenerys siding with Aegon seems possible, and would close the contest for the IT. But then I would not see why GRMM would have introduced Aegon so late in the story.

[Balerion's Whiskers]

When I first read the murdered babies scene in the throne room, I knew that GRRM had opened the door for the return of Aegon. It was not foreshadowing since there was no indication whether someone claiming to be Aegon would show up...he just gave us a set of conditions that might be considered an opportunity....which Is what I think Varys jumped on...an opportunity.

I think the real Aegon died that night and Varys took advantage, knowing that that Rhaeneys was clearly identified, no one would think twice about the ruin of Aegon.

Now whether he was the Pisswater Prince, a slave child from Lys,  A Blackfyre, Brigtflame or the cheesemonger's son with no blood ties to any Targaryen, I don't know. I know what Varys wants people to think and has gone to great lengths to create, but that doesn't mean any of it is true.

I just know the first time I read aGoT....I missed all sorts of stuff, but picked up on this immediately...someone claiming to be Aegon would show up later in the story. I just didn't dream it would take as long as it did.

[finger]

I thought this had been settled long ago: Septa Lemore is some five-six years older than Ashara would have been.

Now some ideas you might come across by yourself,with textual evidence or not.

If Elia would charge someone to flee with Aegon, Ashara was as good a choice as the best one.

Hightower is not the most proper courier, but he'd be all but the best guard for a royal baby.

The Martells did know about Rhaegar's whereabouts around Dorne, indeed. As they knew about Jon, whom they didn't care for, or they would about Aegon. Why were they so eager to know about someone to said he was Aegon?

But I don't feel like discussing it.

[Eddard Scissorhands]

When I first read the murdered babies scene in the throne room, I knew that GRRM had opened the door for the return of Aegon. It was not foreshadowing since there was no indication whether someone claiming to be Aegon would show up...he just gave us a set of conditions that might be considered an opportunity....which Is what I think Varys jumped on...an opportunity.

I think the real Aegon died that night and Varys took advantage, knowing that that Rhaeneys was clearly identified, no one would think twice about the ruin of Aegon.

Now whether he was the Pisswater Prince, a slave child from Lys,  A Blackfyre, Brigtflame or the cheesemonger's son with no blood ties to any Targaryen, I don't know. I know what Varys wants people to think and has gone to great lengths to create, but that doesn't mean any of it is true.

I just know the first time I read aGoT....I missed all sorts of stuff, but picked up on this immediately...someone claiming to be Aegon would show up later in the story. I just didn't dream it would take as long as it did.

Beautifully said! I got a similar feeling when I first read about the babies, but then it eventually subsided. But because of this, when Aegon appeared it was more of a 'duh' than a 'wtf' moment.

[SFDanny]

1 hour ago, finger said:

I thought this had been settled long ago: Septa Lemore is some five-six years older than Ashara would have been.

We only have an estimation of Septa Lemore's age given by Tyrion in ADwD. We only have a range of what Ashara's age would be from Martin's  2002 SSM. Clearly we can't eliminate Ashara being Septa Lemore based on this information. Ashara being in her late thirties (38 or 39 would be Ned and Brandon's ages at this time) who looks a few years older than she is based on living a life outdoors and much harder life than an average noble woman of Westeros would fit the description of Septa Lemore. So, no, it's not settled. Others think it settled, but it's not.

[Rob Storm]

This may be the wrong thread for this and I assume this has been discussed but I am rather new to these threads.  But given GRRM's themes doesn't fAegon's looks somewhat enhance the belief that he is fake?

He dyes his hair to hide it's silver color.  We know GRRM has used history of family lines and the looks along the way between father/mother to show what children of certain matches "should" look like.  Obviously this is not 100% accurate but we know of a few other individuals in our story of Targaryen and Martell parents.  Baelor Breakspear has brown hair, as well as various other brothers in this line.  Silver hair returns with Maekar+Dayne (Silver+Silver) Obviously it would be a lot harder for Varys or anyone to convince others that a random brown haired boy is the Targ heir, though it seems at least 50% likely if not more that Aegon would have the look of Breakspear.  We won't know for some time, but clearly eye/hair color have been important descriptions/identifiers of everyone: Starks, Tullys, Baratheon, Lannister, Targ, Dayne ect.  

 

[BalerionTheCat]

21 hours ago, Rob Storm said:

This may be the wrong thread for this and I assume this has been discussed but I am rather new to these threads.  But given GRRM's themes doesn't fAegon's looks somewhat enhance the belief that he is fake?

He dyes his hair to hide it's silver color.  We know GRRM has used history of family lines and the looks along the way between father/mother to show what children of certain matches "should" look like.  Obviously this is not 100% accurate but we know of a few other individuals in our story of Targaryen and Martell parents.  Baelor Breakspear has brown hair, as well as various other brothers in this line.  Silver hair returns with Maekar+Dayne (Silver+Silver) Obviously it would be a lot harder for Varys or anyone to convince others that a random brown haired boy is the Targ heir, though it seems at least 50% likely if not more that Aegon would have the look of Breakspear.  We won't know for some time, but clearly eye/hair color have been important descriptions/identifiers of everyone: Starks, Tullys, Baratheon, Lannister, Targ, Dayne ect.  

Rhaenys was looking much like her mother. Same for Jon with Lyanna. So indeed, one could think Young Griff pure Targaryen look would rather be an evidence of his fake identify. But it was confirmed by GRRM, that the real Aegon was looking like his father. And is not some knowledge derived from the look of this one Aegon pretender.

Rhaenys looked more like a Martell, Aegon more a Targaryen.

[Lord Varys]

On 16.2.2016 at 7:34 PM, SFDanny said:

Connington cannot claim to have raised Aegon from the sack forward, as his history from his exile to the time with the Golden Company and on to his supposed death is too well known. Lord Jon has enough to do just to convince the Lords of Westeros he is who he says he is. No, for this story to be believed it needs someone who can convince Prince Doran it is true.

That does not mean Adrianne cannot be fooled into going to war, or that there will be reasons for the Martells to join with the Golden Company, if it has success, against the Lannisters. It just means that Doran is not going to go into this alliance without knowing the truth. He may decide to do so knowing Aegon is a pretender, but he isn't going to let Varys place a pretender on the throne for his own advantage and control.

You are right, that the news of both Quentyn's death and the supposed death of Daenerys, may force the Martells into desperate action, but I'm more inclined to think this would be directed towards the Lannisters and against Cersei's person than an open war against the Throne, facing the Lannisters, the Tyrells, and whoever else is still willing to fight with them.

Still even if it comes to open warfare between the Martells and the Lannister alliance, that is not the same as Prince Doran believing Aegon is his nephew. Martin set this up with this high bar to overcome and with this specific plot hole to be answered for a reason. I don't believe for a second we won't see how Varys and Illyrio have planned to answer it. I think that means they have Ashara in their pocket, or think they have, to do just that.

I'm not sure Jon Connington couldn't claim that Aegon was always with him or in a place close to him while he was still with the Golden Company. It would be difficult to prove him a liar there. The Golden Company certainly could vouch that he had some camp follower and crying babe with him, don't you think?

But that wasn't the point I was trying to make. My point is that Connington doesn't have to say that Varys/Illyrio only approached him five years later. He can easily say that he was always in on the plan, even helped to arrange Aegon's rescue alongside Varys and Illyrio. Only if Doran or Arianne knew from an independent source that Jon Connington wasn't directly involved all that could they doubt his word there.

And Connington has no reason whatsoever to provide Arianne or Doran with information that could cause them to doubt Aegon's identity.

You think that Doran will use Aegon only a weapon against the Lannisters but not support his claim to the Iron Throne while he doesn't have proof that he is Elia's son? That isn't going to work. If they commit themselves they have to commit themselves fully.

In addition, one should keep in mind that as of yet pretty much no one - and certainly not Doran Martell - knows that Varys and Illyrio have anything to do with Aegon. That might eventually be revealed but most likely only after Aegon has taken KL, Varys has come out of hiding, and Illyrio joined them all in the Red Keep.

I'm with you that Varys and Illyrio have thought ahead and have people (or artifacts) vouching for Aegon's identity. And I also agree that Lemore could be such person. I just don't buy the idea that she has to be (or is most likely) Ashara Dayne to fulfill that role.

[Princess of Dragonflies]

Hi all,

My first post but have been lurking forever. I apologize now...I had an epic and olid wake and bake session this morning and reading the forums my thoughts are everywhere, lol, so please forgive my lack of references and all that jazz.

Anyhoo, my thoughts are that Aegon is real. This whole prophecy to Rhaegar was hella important, it was his life, his obsession, it's what made him so blind to his father's madness and waited so long to do something. Anyhoo, this prophecy is too much for him not to follow through to its end, he knows pops is craycray, there's no way he'd leave his son within his grasp, not when he believes so deeply in TPTWP. I believe R+L=J and I believe the fateful couple meant to meet up near Harrenhall for the booty call to end all booty calls. So in addition to whoever (KG, servants, knights, etc) was with Rhaegar when he meets with Lyanna, he also has Aegon with him. 

Then everything else that's been speculated happens and we end at the ToJ where the KG commander is there with a couple others and not with Aerys. The KG would be there because the heir (Aegon) is there and Lyanna is about to give (or has already given) birth to another. After Ned arrives and tells them the of the events and that regardless of what they believed when Rhaegar was alive, their new king is Robert... butthey're knees don't bend that easily...they will fight to the death for their rightful Targaryen heirs. But then, before the battle ensues, Howland comes between them holding Jon or maybe even threathening to hurt him or something to stay the KG. Or maybe during the KG and nedconvo, Howland is searching for Lyanna and the KG are unaware of him being there...crannogs are sneaky or whatever... and when he finds her, it throws the KG off guard. In any case Howland saves the day, I believe he does this diplomatically...he's more lover than fighter as we know from the Harrenhall tourney lol. 

Anyway, if Rhaegar is so convinced about TPTWP, I don't see him leaving one of the other dragon heads alone with his crazy father and physically weak wife (or maybe she even consented because she knew that Aegon was the heir), who can't fight to protect both of her children. Perhaps, he did have Varys find the Pisswater Prince and that really was the one who was killed as he says. From Oberyn's story to Tyrion Elia loved babies so when it's told she screamed for the baby the mountain took from her, she would show some serious emotion. 

I hope this makes sense. It started as a couple sentences and then it grew to this...I'm off to the Smoking Sea with the Stone men... GRRM is a stoner. lmao.