R+L=J v.160

[HexMachina]

4 hours ago, TemptressToo said:

I think it's unlikely the Aerys knocked anyone up that late in the game, much less Lyanna.  He was fearful and suspicious and convinced everyone was out to get him.  The describe him as having long nails and hair and covered in scabs from the extended period he was spending on the Iron Throne.  I doubt he left the safety of the throne room or his bedchamber during that time, such is insanity.  Additionally, he had Jamie with him 24/7...do you think Jamie would have remembered a Lyanna encounter?

Of the Kings Guard at the TOJ, Dayne was Rhaegar's best friend.  That also bears some weight and significance, IMO.

I'm hoping that we get to see Howland Reed before the end of the series...although, with Bran's strengthening skills, we might not need him.  Bran alone would be able to see if a certain wedding took place before the old gods and a heart tree and confirm part of the theory.

Rhaella would like a word  

[corbon]

6 hours ago, Tom Cruise said:

Is there anything out there that definitively  says that Aerys (the mad king) is NOT Jon's father?  Could he have raped Lyanna at some point?  I've read a lot of time line stuff about how this can't happen, but personally I don't see it from the information provided in the books.  I don't think we can assume this was impossible, but please correct me if I'm wrong.

Definitively, no. However not only are there literally zero clues that support this idea so in a way its literarily 'impossible', but there are major issues with the idea, even if they don't reach the level of conclusive proof it could not happen. Aerys has a history, a standard MO if you like, of keeping key people close to him and using them as hostages. He does this with Jaime and with Elia. So why then, with Lyanna in his power enough to get a child on her, would he have sent her away far out of his reach. And more, sent almost half his KG with her?
And, remember, Hightower was last seen being sent away by Aerys to find the missing Rhaegar.

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I keep thinking about the three best knights of the kingsguard at the tower of joy.  Why would kings guards protect the child of Rheagar?  Especially while the king is still alive?  Wouldn't they be protecting the King's heir?  At this point Rheagar is dead, and if it was truely the Targaryan heir in the Tower of Joy, then it must be the child of Aerys.  Else, Viserys would be heir.

Thanks

Maverick

Kingsguards are often detached from the king on various alternate duties. They may be assigned as bodyguards for other members of the royal family (eg Dayne and Whent for Rhaegar, or Arys Oakheart for Myrcella etc etc), act in a policing/military role (eg against the Kingswood Brotherhood etc), act in a diplomatic role or mission (eg Meryn Trant accompanying Mace Tyrell to Braavos), gather, train or lead armies (Barristan and Darry between the BoBells and BotTrident) and many other jobs. They do all these other jobs while being absent from the King and its no problem because their first duty to protect the king is being fulfilled by other members of the Kingsguard during their absence.

Now is you follow the timeline and data that we know of, you have Whent and Dayne detached initially with Rhaegar. Then later you have Hightower detached to go find Rhaegar. At this point in time as best we know the 7 KG are spread around like this: Dayne/Whent with Rhaegar, Selmy/Darry regathering and reorganising the defeated royalist army, Hightower looking for Rhaegar, Lannister with the king and Martell either with the king or of to Dorne to gather their troops and bring them north.
Hightower apparently succeeds in his mission because Rhaegar reappears and takes charge of the royal army. Hightower does not appear to have come back with him. It seems likely that Rhaegar ordered the 3 KG to stay with Lyanna at that time. At that time they are required to follow Rhaegars order because they have no higher imperative - the king is guarded already by KG, Dayne and Whent are probably under Rhaegar's orders anyway and Hightower may be forced to accept that this is Rhaegar's price in order to return. Or similar variations.
By the time Rhaegar leads the new royal army away towards the Trident we appear to have: Dayne/WhentHightower with Lyanna, Selmy/Martell/Darry with Rhaegar and the army and Lannister left in KL with the king. Its highly doubtful whether D/W/H are apprised of developments at this stage, but even if they were they still have no reason not to change from their current orders.

Then the BotTrident happens, Rhaegar dies, then the Sack and Aerys is killed by Jaime and Aegon by the Mountain.

Now the 3 KG have reason to change their orders. Now there is a new king and Rhaegar's orders are clearly out of date and superceded by their first duty, to protect the king - and there are no other (loyal) KG left but the three of them.
BUT, how do they know that the situation has changed?
They can't know, until news reaches them. They are not on the raven network, so news will take time. But we know that news does reach them before Ned rides up because Ned only has to say "I looked for you at the Trident" and their replies show that they know already what he's referring to and what it means for them.

So the first question is, what news did they get (ie who sent it, and and what time and what did it contain)?
And the second question is, what does that news mean for them?

Well, we can have a fairly solid guess for the first question, at least for a 'minimum level' of contents and earliest possible timing. They know about the Trident and they know that Aerys is dead and Robert is now King (the refer to him as the Usurper, with a capital) so they must know of the sack as well. So whatever news they received must have been after those two events and contained both of them.
They clearly have no interest in going to Viserys, yet they know he is on Dragonstone and has no KG. That suggests they either don't know about Aerys supposed proclamation (hey, the first we heard about it was in TWoIaF book, no one else in the series appears to have heard about it either!) or they don't believe it.
IMO, this leads to the conclusion that the news they heard actually came (indirectly) from the victorious rebels, or from a Rhaegar sympathiser who was not really loyal to Aerys/Viserys. One thing we can be very sure of - immediately after taking KL the rebels would have widely disseminated the news of their victory, the deaths of the Targaryen ruling line and the ascension of King Robert through any and all means throughout the entire kingdom. The war is over and everyone needs to hear it as soon as possible.
I strongly suspect that the rebel proclamation was carried by raven mail throughout the kingdom and came quickly that way to a sympathizer who knew of the ToJ hideout and sent them the news. It could still take several weeks for them to get that news, leaving only a relatively short time before Ned arrives.

What that news means to them depends on what is in it of course. If it included that Viserys was named king by Aerys, then its hard to see Hightower, the rules stickler, not sending at least one of them to Viserys immediately. But if it doesn't include that information then what it means is that Aerys, Rhaegar and Aegon are dead, so either Viserys or someone higher in the succession should be their new king. But the only possibility for someone higher than Aerys is another legitimate son of Rhaegar.
They clearly have no interest in going anywhere else, to wherever the person they think the new king should be is, even though they could have easily split up to both protect the king and Lyanna, if for some reason their protection of Lyanna was still so important. That strongly suggests that they believe their new king is at the tower with them.
 

5 hours ago, TemptressToo said:

I think it's unlikely the Aerys knocked anyone up that late in the game, much less Lyanna.  

He knocked up Rhaella later in the game than this.

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Additionally, he had Jamie with him 24/7...do you think Jamie would have remembered a Lyanna encounter?

Indeed.
Perhaps even more relevant, if Aerys had Lyanna in his power, why the heck isn't he using her as a hostage against the rebels? He uses Jaime vs Tywin and Elia vs Lewyn, but apparently doesn't think of using Lyanna the same way?

5 hours ago, Erudain said:

That's another topic they say "we swore vow" when talking to Ned, if they truly suspect Viserys it's the heir, then they are being 3 big hypocrites by remarking vows while they are not fulfilling them.
The image we get from Dayne and Hightower from the people that knew them, don't strike me as the hypocrite type...

[sarcasm]No problem. We'll just assume that they are referencing some other vow, not their KG one. While proudly proclaiming their KG status. [/sarcasm]

[Lost Melnibonean]

Since the KG were still at the Tower of Joy and since Lyanna died in a bed of blood, we have to assume that Jon had to have been born within a few days of Eddard's arrival, no? Surely, if the KG had more time, they would have gotten Rhaegar's heir outta Dodge, no? 

[UnmaskedLurker]

 

3 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Since the KG were still at the Tower of Joy and since Lyanna died in a bed of blood, we have to assume that Jon had to have been born within a few days of Eddard's arrival, no? Surely, if the KG had more time, they would have gotten Rhaegar's heir outta Dodge, no? 

Maybe, maybe not. Puerperal fever usually kills in 3-10 days, so if GRRM is following that timeline, it makes sense that Jon was born shortly prior to Ned arriving. But GRRM is not bound by disease progression from the real world and arguably, even if Jon had been born earlier, maybe there was no better location while they waited to see whether Lyanna lived or died (and then perhaps left for DS or Essos). I believe that Ran thinks that Jon was already at Starfall by the time Ned showed up at ToJ, but I am not convinced.

[Lost Melnibonean]

3 minutes ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

 

Maybe, maybe not. Puerperal fever usually kills in 3-10 days, so if GRRM is following that timeline, it makes sense that Jon was born shortly prior to Ned arriving. But GRRM is not bound by disease progression from the real world and arguably, even if Jon had been born earlier, maybe there was no better location while they waited to see whether Lyanna lived or died (and then perhaps left for DS or Essos). I believe that Ran thinks that Jon was already at Starfall by the time Ned showed up at ToJ, but I am not convinced.

But why would they risk Rhaegar's heir falling into Robert's hands? Jon must have been extremely newborn for at least one of the knights not to have gotten Jon away post haste. The bed of blood explains why Lyanna couldn't leave. But if Jon had been even a few weeks old, he surely would have been separated from his mum and taken to relative safety. 

[Ygrain]

26 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

But if Jon had been even a few weeks old, he surely would have been separated from his mum and taken to relative safety. 

Jon and his wetnurse, I sort of don't see the KG with a goat in tow.

 

ETA: though I'd happily pay to see that

[Lost Melnibonean]

8 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Jon and his wetnurse, I sort of don't see the KG with a goat in tow.

 

ETA: though I'd happily pay to see that

Exactly. That would strongly suggest that Jon was born within hours of Eddard's arrival. 

[UnmaskedLurker]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

But why would they risk Rhaegar's heir falling into Robert's hands? Jon must have been extremely newborn for at least one of the knights not to have gotten Jon away post haste. The bed of blood explains why Lyanna couldn't leave. But if Jon had been even a few weeks old, he surely would have been separated from his mum and taken to relative safety. 

Not sure why Jon is safer anywhere else on Westeros than at ToJ. They thought they were well hidden. Once Lyanna died or got better, they probably were leaving Westeros. So where in Westeros is it safer to stash Jon than merely staying at ToJ? Of course, Jon being born within days of Ned showing up does seem the most likely to me, but I am not sure it is required. I just don't see a safer alternative until they completed their arrangements to leave Westeros entirely.

[Ygrain]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Exactly. That would strongly suggest that Jon was born within hours of Eddard's arrival. 

Or they didn't have their travel arrangement done yet.

[Lost Melnibonean]

35 minutes ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

Not sure why Jon is safer anywhere else on Westeros than at ToJ. They thought they were well hidden. Once Lyanna died or got better, they probably were leaving Westeros. So where in Westeros is it safer to stash Jon than merely staying at ToJ? Of course, Jon being born within days of Ned showing up does seem the most likely to me, but I am not sure it is required. I just don't see a safer alternative until they completed their arrangements to leave Westeros entirely.

Ah, so they may have already been holed up when the Bolivian Army arrived, in which case Jon may have been born some time past. Thanks! 

[Lost Melnibonean]

15 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Or they didn't have their travel arrangement done yet.

Sometimes you just gotta bug out and leave your change of small clothes behind.

[Wheels]

Bring on the hate train. I'm ready.

[Ygrain]

13 minutes ago, Wheels said:

Bring on the hate train. I'm ready.

Somehow, I doubt that such a post will sparkle a real discussion.

[Wheels]

O goodness me where are my manners.

Hello everyone:), I have this theory I've been working really hard on and it would mean ever so much to me if you all would have a look? Ygrain, I truly hope that this is the end of the strife between us. I find that I've come to admire your charming intellect after our brief but thrilling disputations. Friends?

 

[Ygrain]

Why, I am in no strife with you (so far), I only find your argumentation sorely lacking, I'm afraid. So far.

[Lord Varys]

On 18.3.2016 at 6:07 PM, UnmaskedLurker said:

Maybe, maybe not. Puerperal fever usually kills in 3-10 days, so if GRRM is following that timeline, it makes sense that Jon was born shortly prior to Ned arriving. But GRRM is not bound by disease progression from the real world and arguably, even if Jon had been born earlier, maybe there was no better location while they waited to see whether Lyanna lived or died (and then perhaps left for DS or Essos). I believe that Ran thinks that Jon was already at Starfall by the time Ned showed up at ToJ, but I am not convinced.

TWoIaF and TPatQ/TRP help us a little bit with problematic births and mothers of (Targaryen) children dying in childbirth. Laena Velaryon's death takes about three days, but she seems to have been a very strong woman. Jeyne Marbrand's death takes a much longer time after the birth of Gerion (weeks). Jeyne Westerling's death also takes some time but hers was a miscarriage. One assumes that no woman would have survived the birth of a fully grown monstrosity of the Maegor type.

We don't know how quickly Joanna Lannister or Queen Rhaella died, but the overall impression we get is that it didn't take long. In fact, it is quite clear that Joanna died shortly after Tyrion's birth (and my personal guess is that Tyrion's big head caused internal bleeding during the birth).

But we know that Aemma Arryn actually predeceased her son, Prince Baelon, 'the heir for a day', so she would have died rather quickly. Rhaenyra herself also had massive problems after the stillbirth of her monstrous daughter, Visenya.

All of that gives us a variety of scenarios to compare Lyanna's case to. She could have been in the Jeyne Marbrand category but also in the Aemma or even Joanna category, causing her to die very quickly after the birth. Speculation as to what exactly she suffered from is problematic because it is based on real world experiences, and with Targaryen genes involved a childbirth there may be other factors to be considered that make it difficult to compare the whole thing to a real world situation.

Yeah, neither Jon Snow nor Daenerys Targaryen seem to suffer from deformities that might make the birth much more difficult/dangerous for the mother - but then, we don't really know whether the problems of Maegor's wives, Aemma, Laena, Rhaenyra, Naerys, or Rhaella later on came from the physical deformities or rather something else that came with Targaryen genes.

In that sense I'd say we cannot really date the time of Lyanna's son one way or the other aside from the fact that it did, most likely, not occur months or many weeks before Ned's arrival if we assume that the birth actually occurred at the tower. One would assume that if the birth hadn't immediately knocked out Lyanna the gang would have left the tower (a scenario that may have been possible if she was a Jeyne Marbrand case).

But my personal guess is that the child was actually born very shortly before Ned's arrival due to the talk about Lyanna's 'bed of blood' and Ned actually remembering the smell of blood in the tower. That could very well indicate that things hadn't even been cleaned up since the birth and Lyanna was not only feverish but also losing strength because something broke during the birth and she was continuously losing blood.

On 18.3.2016 at 7:39 PM, UnmaskedLurker said:

Not sure why Jon is safer anywhere else on Westeros than at ToJ. They thought they were well hidden. Once Lyanna died or got better, they probably were leaving Westeros. So where in Westeros is it safer to stash Jon than merely staying at ToJ? Of course, Jon being born within days of Ned showing up does seem the most likely to me, but I am not sure it is required. I just don't see a safer alternative until they completed their arrangements to leave Westeros entirely.

Well, in light of the fact that Gerold Hightower (presumably) found the tower (if we assume he found Rhaegar there and not at some other place in the South) and in light of the fact that Rhaegar (and perhaps other people like, for instance, Richard Lonmouth) left the tower never to return it is safe to say that the knights had no reason to assume they were 'safe' there. It is common knowledge in war that staying at the same place for a long period of time makes it much more likely that the enemy will find you, especially if he is looking for you and/or might have a pretty good picture where to look for you.

The knights had no way of knowing to whom Rhaegar had spoken about the tower (assuming that he hadn't spoken to anyone about it without any evidence would be sloppy and foolish), and Ser Gerold would actually know how he had found the tower (if that was the place where he found Rhaegar). If Gerold used information available at court (say, rumors and reports gathered by Varys, or the information he gathered from people living in nearby villages and so on) then he would have known that others would be able to figure out where they were, too. Especially if Rhaegar did not leave the tower on his own and/or if Gerold had come to the tower not 'all by himself' but with a party of men-at-arms who then returned to KL with Rhaegar. I've said it repeatedly - the very idea that the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard would travel the land all by himself without squires, grooms, men-at-arms, and retainers makes no sense at all. Ser Gerold didn't have any reason for secrecy, after all. He was doing the king's business. And one would assume that Aerys would have been quite aware that one knight wouldn't exactly be enough to convince Rhaegar to return if he was determined not to go (for whatever reason). Aerys and Gerold would have known that Rhaegar was at least with the remaining companions that didn't return to court. Ned later had a good reason to go to the tower only with a small group of trusted friends if we assume he actually knew or suspected what he would find there. But Gerold Hightower had no such reason at all,.

[Alia of the knife]

Is there anything to support the notion, that when "true dragons" are born, (Dany, Jon, Rhaegar, etc), that their initial forms are, (ahem), unusual, and to the non-Targaryen eye, might appear deformed?

I know that Rhaego died, as well Princess Rhaenrya daughter, so may have been "deformed," but my husband suggested that perhaps at birth, these offspring actually look like the dragons they are, and it's why the birth kills the mother.

 

[corbon]

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, in light of the fact that Gerold Hightower (presumably) found the tower (if we assume he found Rhaegar there and not at some other place in the South) and in light of the fact that Rhaegar (and perhaps other people like, for instance, Richard Lonmouth) left the tower never to return it is safe to say that the knights had no reason to assume they were 'safe' there.

Not safe to say at all. Rhaegar knows whats hiding at the tower and whats at stake - there is no way he wants Aerys to know where/how he can get his hands on Lyanna. So we can rule out Rhaegar talking about.
And Hightower knows how to find it yes. But that doesn't mean anyone else can easily repeat his actions. Its likely Hightower found out because he was helped by someone sympathetic who recognised that Rhaegar would approve Hightower finding him. That doesn't mean that that sympathetic person would help the next person looking.

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It is common knowledge in war that staying at the same place for a long period of time makes it much more likely that the enemy will find you, especially if he is looking for you and/or might have a pretty good picture where to look for you.

This is subterfuge, not war. Its common knowledge in subterfuge that hiding is better than running as far as staying hidden goes.

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The knights had no way of knowing to whom Rhaegar had spoken about the tower (assuming that he hadn't spoken to anyone about it without any evidence would be sloppy and foolish)

Sloppy and foolish applies here, but not to the reasoning of the knights.

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

, and Ser Gerold would actually know how he had found the tower (if that was the place where he found Rhaegar). If Gerold used information available at court (say, rumors and reports gathered by Varys, or the information he gathered from people living in nearby villages and so on) then he would have known that others would be able to figure out where they were, too.

More likely he tracked them down through whoever is giving them logistic support - most likely from Starfall. In Hightower's situation, trying to find Rhaegar, the first thing I'd do after ending up with a cold trail is think who might be quietly supporting them. My bet is he headed to Starfall, and there managed to convince the right person in the know that Rhaegar really did need to see Hightower.

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Especially if Rhaegar did not leave the tower on his own and/or if Gerold had come to the tower not 'all by himself' but with a party of men-at-arms who then returned to KL with Rhaegar.

Thats supposition. While it makes a certain amount of sense in some ways, its not necessary and it makes no sense at all in other ways. If there are significant numbers of random menials involved, then the secret would certainly be out. Yet Aerys never goes after Lyanna in all that time...

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I've said it repeatedly - the very idea that the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard would travel the land all by himself without squires, grooms, men-at-arms, and retainers makes no sense at all.

This is a narrow-minded fallacy. It makes no sense from a certain perspective, agreed. But then that ignores the secrecy involved. It makes no sense to have lots of random menials when secrets have to be kept and apparently are kept from the most powerful people in the land. Neither Aerys nor the Rebels, both of which would have made her a high priority, make any move toward Lyanna for well over a year...
It also makes no sense for Catelyn Stark to travel from Winterfell to KL and back with just a single retainer - yet she did.

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Ser Gerold didn't have any reason for secrecy, after all. He was doing the king's business.

If he was given the location to go to with the proviso he keep it quiet, he'd be honour bound to do so.

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And one would assume that Aerys would have been quite aware that one knight wouldn't exactly be enough to convince Rhaegar to return if he was determined not to go (for whatever reason). Aerys and Gerold would have known that Rhaegar was at least with the remaining companions that didn't return to court. 

Thats simply ridiculous. One knight will do as well as 20. Aerys needs Rhaegar to come voluntarily - you can't make someone your overall commander by force. So its either an appeal to authority (the kings orders), family need (House Targaryen needs you) or personal accomplishment (you get to be in charge) or some similar variant, that matter here, not how many men force Rahegar to come back.

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Ned later had a good reason to go to the tower only with a small group of trusted friends if we assume he actually knew or suspected what he would find there. But Gerold Hightower had no such reason at all,.

You have no idea of that at all.
Hightower would do what was necessary to get there and get Rhaegar back. If that included keeping Rhaegar's secrets, at least until he spoke to him, then he'd do that.

[Lord Varys]

7 hours ago, corbon said:

Not safe to say at all. Rhaegar knows whats hiding at the tower and whats at stake - there is no way he wants Aerys to know where/how he can get his hands on Lyanna. So we can rule out Rhaegar talking about.
And Hightower knows how to find it yes. But that doesn't mean anyone else can easily repeat his actions. Its likely Hightower found out because he was helped by someone sympathetic who recognised that Rhaegar would approve Hightower finding him. That doesn't mean that that sympathetic person would help the next person looking.

This is subterfuge, not war. Its common knowledge in subterfuge that hiding is better than running as far as staying hidden goes.

Sloppy and foolish applies here, but not to the reasoning of the knights.

More likely he tracked them down through whoever is giving them logistic support - most likely from Starfall. In Hightower's situation, trying to find Rhaegar, the first thing I'd do after ending up with a cold trail is think who might be quietly supporting them. My bet is he headed to Starfall, and there managed to convince the right person in the know that Rhaegar really did need to see Hightower.

Thats supposition. While it makes a certain amount of sense in some ways, its not necessary and it makes no sense at all in other ways. If there are significant numbers of random menials involved, then the secret would certainly be out. Yet Aerys never goes after Lyanna in all that time...

This is a narrow-minded fallacy. It makes no sense from a certain perspective, agreed. But then that ignores the secrecy involved. It makes no sense to have lots of random menials when secrets have to be kept and apparently are kept from the most powerful people in the land. Neither Aerys nor the Rebels, both of which would have made her a high priority, make any move toward Lyanna for well over a year...
It also makes no sense for Catelyn Stark to travel from Winterfell to KL and back with just a single retainer - yet she did.

If he was given the location to go to with the proviso he keep it quiet, he'd be honour bound to do so.

Thats simply ridiculous. One knight will do as well as 20. Aerys needs Rhaegar to come voluntarily - you can't make someone your overall commander by force. So its either an appeal to authority (the kings orders), family need (House Targaryen needs you) or personal accomplishment (you get to be in charge) or some similar variant, that matter here, not how many men force Rahegar to come back.

You have no idea of that at all.
Hightower would do what was necessary to get there and get Rhaegar back. If that included keeping Rhaegar's secrets, at least until he spoke to him, then he'd do that.

Well, now come on. You are not making the rules of the game. If I speculate or try to use common sense in a scenario I'm not allowed to do that but you are? That's not a discussion, that's you only wanting to hear others repeat your opinion. If you want to do that just record your stuff and listen to the recording...

1. You presuppose that Rhaegar wants to hide Lyanna from Aerys when Gerold found him. That is by no means confirmed. I don't care that you believe that this is the case until such time as it is confirmed by actual textual evidenced. You use circular reasoning - Aerys wanted to know where Lyanna is, and Rhaegar didn't want to tell anyone. Therefore nobody talked. That's just silly. 

2. We cannot rule Rhaegar talking about the tower because no one at the tower is a position to know what happens to Prince Rhaegar after he has reached the tower. Suppose Aerys II actually wanted to seize Lyanna Stark and use her as a hostage against Robert and the Starks. Suppose Rhaegar Targaryen returned to court only the meet Princess Elia, Princess Rhaenys, and Prince Aegon chained to a pyre, drowned in wildfire, and with Rossart having the torch in hand, determined to burn Rhaegar's entire family to a crisp should the prince not answer every question his royal father had for him. I'm not saying something like that (or a milder form of intimidation/blackmail) happened but the guys at the tower must have been prepared for something like that. I mean, there was a reason why they hid somewhere in the wild in the first place, and the secrecy aspect of that would have been compromised simply by default if (1) one guy finds them and (2) one guy or a number of unknown guys leaves the place.

3. In addition, we should keep in mind that we have no clear idea what caused Rhaegar to return to court. Was it Aerys' offer to make him the supreme commander? Or was it Gerold relying the king's message that unless he returned to court he would hurt Elia and their children? We have no textual basis to assume that Aerys already gave Rhaegar giving power or a command at the tower via Hightower. Could be, but that is just an assumption without any textual evidence. In light of Aerys' paranoia it is very unlikely that he would have 'seen reason' and decided to give his ingrate son the command of the Targaryen army if he had any reason to (still) mistrust him. And Rhaegar keeping silent about Lyanna and whatever he did during the last months wouldn't exactly motivate the man to hand the royal army to the guy.

4. Your logistic support idea isn't backed by the text at all. In fact, you have pulled the whole logistic support idea out of your ass. Perhaps they had no need for such because, you know, they just bought/took food from some local guys up in the mountains. People live there, you know. And whoever manned that tower once most certainly didn't got their food carried up from Starfall of all places, either.

The idea that the Daynes or anyone at Starfall would actually point Ser Gerold to the tower is insane, by the way. If we assume the Daynes are in Rhaegar's camp thanks to Ser Arthur - and in light of the fact that Prince Doran is not exactly backing his Targaryen-in-laws with all his might during this war - it makes no sense at all to just assume that someone at Starfall just talked to Gerold because he told him a story. And everything Gerold could have done was telling a story. Perhaps such a person would have believed Ser Gerold was a nice and honest/honorable (whatever) man but he was acting upon orders of the Mad King. If there is any chance that Rhaegar was hiding from his father - and that chance is pretty big in light of the fact that he and Lyanna disappeared before the Rebellion began - then such a person would not, in fact, just point Ser Gerold to the tower. If Jon Connington or another of Rhaegar's friends had been looking for him your scenario would make some sense. But Gerold Hightower is nowhere ever called a friend of Prince Rhaegar.

In addition, if we go with your assumption that Ser Gerold Hightower traveled alone, then Lord Dayne could easily have arrested or killed Ser Gerold, to ensure that the Mad King did not find Prince Rhaegar. 

5. You have no argument against my assumption that Ser Gerold Hightower, the Lord Commander of the Kingsgaurd, did not travel alone. The very idea of that would be strange because there is no reason to assume that Aerys II had any reason to make the search for Prince Rhaegar 'a secret mission'. It was widely known that he was gone, and if the king wanted him found it wouldn't do to send out just one guy in a white cloak. That's ridiculous. Granted, Aerys was mad but Ser Gerold himself would have told his king that it would be better if he take some more men with him. In addition we know that Aerys was looking for Rhaegar since before he had named Connington Hand, making it not unlikely that the court already had a pretty good idea where to look for Prince Rhaegar (or had at least at the time the king dispatched Ser Gerold). Your reference to Catelyn is an obvious diversion. Catelyn had a reason to keep her journey a secret. But Ser Gerold Hightower had no such reason at all.

And neither do you have an argument against the idea that one of Rhaegar's original six companions was still with him and did return with him. We have no reason to believe that only Rhaegar, Oswell, and Arthur abducted Lyanna. In fact, it could have been all of Rhaegar's companions. In fact, that would be an interesting scenario in light of the fact that Robert slew Myles Mooton at Stoney Sept. Perhaps Robert knew that this guy had been with Rhaegar when they fell on his beloved Lyanna?

You also cannot use the fact that neither Aerys nor the rebels tried to get to Lyanna after Rhaegar's return as 'evidence'. The way things are it is quite clear that Aerys and Rhaegar must have resolved their issues one way or the other - else Rhaegar simply wouldn't have been given command. And if father and son actually sort of reconciled peacefully rather than Aerys blackmailing his son to lead the army against Robert by using Elia and the children as hostages then there would be little to no need for Aerys to actually get his hand on Lyanna. Presumably Aerys thought that Rhaegar would crush the rebels, so there was no reason for him to think Lyanna would make a good hostage. He could only use her as a hostage against Robert if Rhaegar had died (something he most likely did not think would happen).

But the scenario that Rhaegar was actually forced to do his father's bidding there isn't all that unlikely if you think about it. In light of the fact that Lyanna and Rhaegar may have been/were married at this point the idea of Rhaegar not trying to end the war peacefully is a stretch. One would assume that he had no interest/intention to actually fight against/kill his brother-in-law. But if Aerys threatened the life of the promised prince there is a pretty good chance that he wouldn't have had any choice but to comply.

By the way - since you stressing the 'Aerys wanted Lyanna' thing how is it that Ser Gerold Hightower didn't return to KL with both Rhaegar and Lyanna? One would assume that Aerys knew that Rhaegar most likely was with Lyanna, and therefore would have given Ser Gerold the order to not only bring Rhaegar to him but also Lyanna? One can explain this away with giving the ad hoc explanation 'Well, he forgot, or something' but if getting his hands on Lyanna was important for Aerys then it is very unlikely that he would have forgotten such a thing.

6. We do not actually that King Aerys II wanted to hand the command of the Targaryen army to Prince Rhaegar when he sent out Gerold Hightower. He could just have commanded him to find Rhaegar, without giving him the reason why. Not to mention that Rhaegar getting command could just have been an outcome of his meeting with his father after his return. We don't know how long Gerold searched for Rhaegar or whether Connington had already been fired and exiled by the time Gerold left KL (if not, then Gerold may have been under the impression that Connington would continue to serve as Hand of the King).

It is an interesting possibility to speculate that Gerold may have come to Rhaegar with such an offer. But there is really no need to treat such a baseless assumption as gospel. Ser Gerold could just have come with a royal warrant to arrest the Prince of Dragonstone as a traitor to be presented to the king without delay. And considering Aerys' state of mind Rhaegar could easily have been presented to him in chains and left the throne room as the Protector of the Realm and commander of the Targaryen army. The man was mad, after all. That obviously didn't happen because Gerold didn't return to KL with Rhaegar but there is still a good chance that Rhaegar came to KL as an alleged traitor to present himself to his father for trial, only forced there because Ser Gerold relayed him his father's message that he would kill Elia and their children if he wouldn't present himself, or something of that sort. That could also explain why Gerold didn't return to Aerys - he felt the need to protect the other half of Rhaegar's family from Aerys' wrath, or felt he could not force himself to deliver another innocent into the hands of that madman.

Your entire argumentation is based on your desired outcome. The fact that Rhaegar eventually took command of the Targaryen army doesn't mean Gerold was sent out with that in mind (or knowing that his king had such an intention). Things happened in-between we don't know anything about. The idea that decisions were made before people even met each other (like Rhaegar meeting his father after his return to KL) makes no sense at all. It is neither realistic nor in concurrence with George's usual writing style. If there missing pieces in a series of events it usually turns out that important pieces of the narrative are missing. For instance, we knew for a long time that Maekar was hating Bloodraven in 211 AC because his brother had named him Hand rather than Maekar. And we knew that Bloodraven eventually ended up in a black cell. But that never meant that Maekar had thrown the man into the black cells. As it turns out, Maekar cooled down, Bloodraven served as Hand under him, too, and Bloodraven's stint in the black cells had nothing to do with the political situation in 211 AC.

In the case of Robert's Rebellion and the events leading up to it we are in a similar situation. We know something but we don't know the full picture, nor do we know whether we have all the important pieces (or see them in the correct perspective). Our main sources are still rebel POVs like Ned, Catelyn - and we have yet to get a good picture from the loyalists point of view (which could be done in future books by Jon Connington and Barristan Selmy). Trying to connect the dots while they are incomplete and trying to tell a complete or convincing narrative is just a stupid endeavor. It is inherently flawed and essentially a waste of time. You have to keep in mind that there are still important pieces missing, and if you really want to try to guess what actually happened you have ask yourself what pieces might still be missing, what George might have in store for us to spin the entire thing in a different direction. If you don't do that, you are actually disrespectful to the material.

As of yet, every book that came out added another element/layer to the past of various characters. That's not going to stop. You have to keep in mind that there might still be revelations about the past of certain characters on the last page in the last book. This means it makes no sense to argue in favor of your own pet sequence of events with the fervor you are doing on occasion. 

We are both pretty much convinced that Rhaegar and Lyanna were married and are, most likely, the parents of Jon Snow. But we both have a very bad picture how this all unfolded.

[corbon]

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

Well, now come on. You are not making the rules of the game. If I speculate or try to use common sense in a scenario I'm not allowed to do that but you are? That's not a discussion, that's you only wanting to hear others repeat your opinion. If you want to do that just record your stuff and listen to the recording...

Well, there's a difference between saying 'this is what I think/suspect/theorise' and saying 'its safe to say' (which means, clearly this and this alone is right). You crossed the line from one to the other, and no doubt I do too all the time.
The reason we clash so often is because the things you state are 'safe to say' and similar are often quite nonsense to me, as is the reasoning used to back them up. Its usually the reasoning that makes me answer more than the statement. And sure, I can be just as guilty, stuck inside my own argument, but if so I deserve to be called on it too.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

1. You presuppose that Rhaegar wants to hide Lyanna from Aerys when Gerold found him. That is by no means confirmed. I don't care that you believe that this is the case until such time as it is confirmed by actual textual evidenced. You use circular reasoning - Aerys wanted to know where Lyanna is, and Rhaegar didn't want to tell anyone. Therefore nobody talked. That's just silly. 

Bullshit. The reasoning is that Aerys's observed behaviour indicates he would have wanted Lyanna badly, yet he doesn't get her. Therefore no one talked.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

2. We cannot rule Rhaegar talking about the tower because no one at the tower is a position to know what happens to Prince Rhaegar after he has reached the tower. Suppose Aerys II actually wanted to seize Lyanna Stark and use her as a hostage against Robert and the Starks. Suppose Rhaegar Targaryen returned to court only the meet Princess Elia, Princess Rhaenys, and Prince Aegon chained to a pyre, drowned in wildfire, and with Rossart having the torch in hand, determined to burn Rhaegar's entire family to a crisp should the prince not answer every question his royal father had for him. I'm not saying something like that (or a milder form of intimidation/blackmail) happened but the guys at the tower must have been prepared for something like that.

Yes, we can rule out anybody, including Rhaegar, talking in a wider context because they weren't found. If people, Rhaegar or others, had talked, they would have been found earlier, yet until after the death of Rhaegar and Aerys and the fall of the Targaryen Dynasty we have only one 'finder', who stayed.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

I mean, there was a reason why they hid somewhere in the wild in the first place, and the secrecy aspect of that would have been compromised simply by default if (1) one guy finds them and (2) one guy or a number of unknown guys leaves the place.

Thats simply not true. The evidence says that until after the fall of the Targaryens, their secrecy was maintained. Spouting some bullshit defaults you made up doesn't change that. Secrets can be kept.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

3. In addition, we should keep in mind that we have no clear idea what caused Rhaegar to return to court. Was it Aerys' offer to make him the supreme commander? Or was it Gerold relying the king's message that unless he returned to court he would hurt Elia and their children? We have no textual basis to assume that Aerys already gave Rhaegar giving power or a command at the tower via Hightower. Could be, but that is just an assumption without any textual evidence. In light of Aerys' paranoia it is very unlikely that he would have 'seen reason' and decided to give his ingrate son the command of the Targaryen army if he had any reason to (still) mistrust him. And Rhaegar keeping silent about Lyanna and whatever he did during the last months wouldn't exactly motivate the man to hand the royal army to the guy.

There is textual evidence. I don't have the app but my understanding is that its clear that after BoBells Hightower was sent to get Rhaegar back. Before that we have this:
When Merryweather failed so dismally to contain Robert's Rebellion and Prince Rhaegar could not be found, Aerys had turned to the next best thing, and raised Connington to the Handship.
So Aerys wanted Rhaegar to be in charge earlier, but couldn't find him and tried JonCon as Hand instead as the nearest similar thing he could get. When JonCon was found inadequate GH was sent to find Rhaegar and bring him back. Then Rhaegar comes back and is put in charge. Making up some bullshit about torturing Rhaegar's family to make him comply is ridiculous.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

4. Your logistic support idea isn't backed by the text at all. In fact, you have pulled the whole logistic support idea out of your ass. Perhaps they had no need for such because, you know, they just bought/took food from some local guys up in the mountains. People live there, you know. And whoever manned that tower once most certainly didn't got their food carried up from Starfall of all places, either.

Didn't say they did carry the food from Starfall. And logistical support didn't come out my arse its a sheer necessity. People (and horses) have to eat, and over long periods of time eat a lot. Foraging won't do it alone, especially in a pass situation. There are at least 5-6 adults and as many or more horses missing for literally months. They must be getting at least occasional supplies and probably news from somewhere and we know they got news at least once. And its not just local support in the mountains. They are in a well travelled pass and too many people would know if they were using local stores for so long.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

The idea that the Daynes or anyone at Starfall would actually point Ser Gerold to the tower is insane, by the way.

No, it isn't. Its perfectly logical and reasonable under the right circumstances. And all we know point to the right circumstances.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

If we assume the Daynes are in Rhaegar's camp thanks to Ser Arthur - and in light of the fact that Prince Doran is not exactly backing his Targaryen-in-laws with all his might during this war -

Frankly I don't put any stock in the Daynes being fixed deeply into a 'Dornish' camp that aligns exactly and always with the Martells. Its like insisting that the Boltons would always align deeply with a Stark camp, or the Hightowers align initimately with a Tyrell camp. Not that the Daynes necessarily have designs on leadership of Dorne or anything, but that they have their own goals and alignments and should not be just blindly categorised as Martell subsidiaries.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

it makes no sense at all to just assume that someone at Starfall just talked to Gerold because he told him a story. And everything Gerold could have done was telling a story. Perhaps such a person would have believed Ser Gerold was a nice and honest/honorable (whatever) man but he was acting upon orders of the Mad King.

More false statements.
First, everything is a story( we agree). But some stories are more believable than others. Yes, Gerold may very well have been able to 'tell a story' that convinced someone critical to allow him inside Rhaegar's circle. The 'Mad King' is Rhaegar's father and while he is unstable, he's still lucid and rational most of the time. Rhaegar is still his heir. There is a frikken civil war threatening their dynasty. 
And second, for all we know Hightower could have had official documents, appointments, warrants, charters, who knows.
Characterising this as 'just telling a story' is true, and yet a total misdirection at the same time. The user name at least fits...

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

If there is any chance that Rhaegar was hiding from his father - and that chance is pretty big in light of the fact that he and Lyanna disappeared before the Rebellion began - then such a person would not, in fact, just point Ser Gerold to the tower.

You can;t rationally makes uch a statement because you don;t know what such a person would do in varied circumstances and you don;t know what the circumstances actually were.
But we do know that Hightower did find Rhaegar, Rhaegar did return, Rhaegar was given command and no one else found the hiding place until after Aerys and Rhaegar were dead.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

If Jon Connington or another of Rhaegar's friends had been looking for him your scenario would make some sense. But Gerold Hightower is nowhere ever called a friend of Prince Rhaegar.

He doesn;t need to be a friend. He merely needs to be doing actions favourable to Rhaegar's cause. Which he apparently was.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

In addition, if we go with your assumption that Ser Gerold Hightower traveled alone, then Lord Dayne could easily have arrested or killed Ser Gerold, to ensure that the Mad King did not find Prince Rhaegar. 

Could have. Yes. So what? Didn't. Clearly wasn't in their best interest. Clearly wasn't in Rhaegar's best interest.
The sum total of this is you hypothesising a bunch of bullshit that doesn't fit any data we have in order to argue against a conclusion that does fit all the data we have. Its ridiculous.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

5. You have no argument against my assumption that Ser Gerold Hightower, the Lord Commander of the Kingsgaurd, did not travel alone.

Well, thats news to me, because I already made one.
Either he travelled alone, or he didn't. Fine. You argue he didn't, but then someone would have told. But the data says no one told, at least not until after Aerys and Rhaegar were dead. So your argument doesn't fit the data. Either he travelled alone, or no one told. I don't care which. I happen to agree with the likelihood that someone would have told, therefore I prefer the travelled alone option. But either way your argument fails to meet with the facts as we know them.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

The very idea of that would be strange because there is no reason to assume that Aerys II had any reason to make the search for Prince Rhaegar 'a secret mission'.

Its not secret from Aerys' side, its secret from Rhaegar's side. If Hightower has to dismiss a retinue in order to succeed in his mission, then thats what he'd do.

Or maybe he didn't travel alone, but then, no one told.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

It was widely known that he was gone, and if the king wanted him found it wouldn't do to send out just one guy in a white cloak.

Its not 'send out one guy in a white cloak' though. Its 'this is your mission, get it done'. Its extremely unlikely Aerys would be giving Hightower detailed orders about how he must achieve this mission, those things would be for Hightower to decide.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

In addition we know that Aerys was looking for Rhaegar since before he had named Connington Hand, making it not unlikely that the court already had a pretty good idea where to look for Prince Rhaegar (or had at least at the time the king dispatched Ser Gerold).

If they knew where to look for Rhaegar they would have already found him.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

Your reference to Catelyn is an obvious diversion. Catelyn had a reason to keep her journey a secret. But Ser Gerold Hightower had no such reason at all.

No, its a clear counter example to your statement which implied an important personage would never travel without an entourage.
Yes in normal circumstances an important person travels with an entourage. But when there is need, the entourage can be abandoned. As Catelyn did.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

And neither do you have an argument against the idea that one of Rhaegar's original six companions was still with him and did return with him. We have no reason to believe that only Rhaegar, Oswell, and Arthur abducted Lyanna. In fact, it could have been all of Rhaegar's companions. In fact, that would be an interesting scenario in light of the fact that Robert slew Myles Mooton at Stoney Sept. Perhaps Robert knew that this guy had been with Rhaegar when they fell on his beloved Lyanna?

You're absolutely right - I didn't argue against that at all. Its entirely possible - just if it went down that way, they didn't talk.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

You also cannot use the fact that neither Aerys nor the rebels tried to get to Lyanna after Rhaegar's return as 'evidence'.

Absolutely can.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

The way things are it is quite clear that Aerys and Rhaegar must have resolved their issues one way or the other - else Rhaegar simply wouldn't have been given command.

Rhaegar had put his hand on Jaime's shoulder. "When this battle's done I mean to call a council. Changes will be made. I meant to do it long ago, but . . . well, it does no good to speak of roads not taken. We shall talk when I return."
Clearly, issues have not been settled. A council will be called, changes will be made. By council, not by King's decree.
Aerys need Rhaegar in command because he had no more options, not because everything between them was resolved. His first and second options had already failed.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

And if father and son actually sort of reconciled peacefully rather than Aerys blackmailing his son to lead the army against Robert by using Elia and the children as hostages then there would be little to no need for Aerys to actually get his hand on Lyanna. Presumably Aerys thought that Rhaegar would crush the rebels, so there was no reason for him to think Lyanna would make a good hostage. He could only use her as a hostage against Robert if Rhaegar had died (something he most likely did not think would happen).

First, this is based on a clearly false premise.
Second, then we would still expect to see Aerys trying to get control of Lyanna after the trident, at the same time he is holding Elia and sending Viserys and Rhaella away.

None of this is adding up. Not even a little bit. Aerys clearly still didn't know where Lyanna was,

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

But the scenario that Rhaegar was actually forced to do his father's bidding there isn't all that unlikely if you think about it. In light of the fact that Lyanna and Rhaegar may have been/were married at this point the idea of Rhaegar not trying to end the war peacefully is a stretch. One would assume that he had no interest/intention to actually fight against/kill his brother-in-law. But if Aerys threatened the life of the promised prince there is a pretty good chance that he wouldn't have had any choice but to comply.

There is so much wrong in every sentence here...

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

By the way - since you stressing the 'Aerys wanted Lyanna' thing how is it that Ser Gerold Hightower didn't return to KL with both Rhaegar and Lyanna? One would assume that Aerys knew that Rhaegar most likely was with Lyanna, and therefore would have given Ser Gerold the order to not only bring Rhaegar to him but also Lyanna?

No, you can't assume that. We are vaguely told what Aerys ordered Hightower to do and we see the result. You can't assume extra items or assume detail that we don't know that doesn't fit that result.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

One can explain this away with giving the ad hoc explanation 'Well, he forgot, or something' but if getting his hands on Lyanna was important for Aerys then it is very unlikely that he would have forgotten such a thing.

There are many ways it can be explained. But what is most important is fitting the results to the data. Since neither the results nor the data says that Aerys didn't ask for Lyanna, then we have to assume Aerys didn't ask for Lyanna. Why? Pick any one of a dozen reasons, it doesn't matter.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

6. We do not actually that King Aerys II wanted to hand the command of the Targaryen army to Prince Rhaegar when he sent out Gerold Hightower.

Bullshit. We know he gave Connington command because he couldn't find Rhaegar. Connington failed so he tried harder to find Rhaegar. Rhaegar returned and was given command. Never mind what the app says precisely, we have the data right there in front of us.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

He could just have commanded him to find Rhaegar, without giving him the reason why. Not to mention that Rhaegar getting command could just have been an outcome of his meeting with his father after his return. We don't know how long Gerold searched for Rhaegar or whether Connington had already been fired and exiled by the time Gerold left KL (if not, then Gerold may have been under the impression that Connington would continue to serve as Hand of the King).

Coulda woulda schmoulda bullshit. Follow the data.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

Your entire argumentation is based on your desired outcome.

No, its based on the actual outcome. And the data we have.
Whereas yours invents new data and posits outcomes that never happened.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

You have to keep in mind that there are still important pieces missing, and if you really want to try to guess what actually happened you have ask yourself what pieces might still be missing, what George might have in store for us to spin the entire thing in a different direction. If you don't do that, you are actually disrespectful to the material.

No  We work with the data we have, understanding its limitations, and we revise when new data becomes available.
We don't work in opposition to the data.

On 21/03/2016 at 5:33 PM, Lord Varys said:

We are both pretty much convinced that Rhaegar and Lyanna were married and are, most likely, the parents of Jon Snow. But we both have a very bad picture how this all unfolded.

Sure. And some pictures are worse than others. Some are founded on astonishing outright lies, in complete opposition to the data we have.