R+L=J v.160

[MtnLion]

44 minutes ago, J. Stargaryen said:

necessarily political in nature

That is something that we cannot know at present.  In fact, the only descriptions that we have suggest that it is romantic in nature. 

[J. Stargaryen]

2 minutes ago, John Courage said:

No offense, but I think you're using WAY TOO MUCH imagination.

Noted.

1 minute ago, MtnLion said:

That is something that we cannot know at present.  In fact, the only descriptions that we have suggest that it is romantic in nature. 

I'm talking about from the realm's PoV, not Rhaegar's. The kidnapping of a great lord's daughter/the betrothed of another great lord is inherently political.

[MindBomb]

If you look at Lyanna as the linchpin to the three political factions (SAB--Tullys are not in the alliance as of yet, Team Rhaegar, Aerys), then you get a very clear motivation for the abduction. If Aerys gains possession of Lyanna, then he can neutralize the Starks, Arryns, and Barratheons by preventing them from joining Rhaegar and extracting political support. It's game over for both the SAB and Team Rhaegar. After all, there is textual evidence that Aerys has used the hostage tactic to neutralize his political adversaries--first with Jaime and secondly with Elia, Rhaenys, and Aegon.

When you shift your perspective away from the predominant view of the crowning of the Queen of Love and Beauty as a romantic gesture, then it opens up many more avenues of analysis--particularly when we are given the not so subtle hint that the Tourney was an attempt by Rhaegar to gain support for the overthrow of Aerys. There has to be a message behind the crowning. A message that Brandon Stark, as the representative of the Starks at the Tourney, did not like at all.

When you remind yourself of how Doran Martell carefully plots his political maneuvers, you realize that Elia is not the poor, cuckolded spouse that we are led to believe--she is part of a power bloc between Rhaegar and Dorne. Does not Doran groom his children to advance House Martell interests?

I really think that the eventual romance between Rhaegar and Lyanna comes later and quite accidentally at that. (I also think that Rhaegar does not put two and two together regarding the prophecy until later either.)

[J. Stargaryen]

4 minutes ago, MindBomb said:

If you look at Lyanna as the linchpin to the three political factions (SAB--Tullys are not in the alliance as of yet, Team Rhaegar, Aerys), then you get a very clear motivation for the abduction. If Aerys gains possession of Lyanna, then he can neutralize the Starks, Arryns, and Barratheons by preventing them from joining Rhaegar and extracting political support. It's game over for both the SAB and Team Rhaegar. After all, there is textual evidence that Aerys has used the hostage tactic to neutralize his political adversaries--first with Jaime and secondly with Elia, Rhaenys, and Aegon.

This is an important part of the equation. Because of who she is, the abduction absolutely demanded a response. And Rhaegar would have known this. Actually, anybody with a handful of brain cells would have.

STAB vs. SAB: The daughter of Lord Tully was betrothed to the heir of Lord Stark, so I count them as part of the alliance. Though it is true that the alliance nearly fell apart after Brandon died.

Could you elaborate on Aerys gaining control of Lyanna? Do you think he intended to kidnap her, but Rhaegar preemptively kidnapped her, or... ?

4 minutes ago, MindBomb said:

I really think that the eventual romance between Rhaegar and Lyanna comes later and quite accidentally at that. (I also think that Rhaegar does not put two and two together regarding the prophecy until later either.)

I agree that the romance came later, and I think there's a fair chance it was accidental. I'm not convinced that Rhaegar ever put two and two together regarding his offspring by Lyanna fulfilling the prophecy. If he did, it would have had to have been later on, as you say. And if he that is the case, then you can rule out prophecy as a direct motivation for the kidnapping. I still think it's possible that prophecy was indirectly responsible, as it may have caused Rhaegar to play the game of thrones in the first place.

[MindBomb]

18 minutes ago, J. Stargaryen said:

This is an important part of the equation. Because of who she is, the abduction absolutely demanded a response. And Rhaegar would have known this. Actually, anybody with a handful of brain cells would have.

STAB vs. SAB: The daughter of Lord Tully was betrothed to the heir of Lord Stark, so I count them as part of the alliance. Though it is true that the alliance nearly fell apart after Brandon died.

Could you elaborate on Aerys gaining control of Lyanna? Do you think he intended to kidnap her, but Rhaegar preemptively kidnapped her, or... ?

I agree that the romance came later, and I think there's a fair chance it was accidental. I'm not convinced that Rhaegar ever put two and two together regarding his offspring by Lyanna fulfilling the prophecy. If he did, it would have had to have been later on, as you say. And if he that is the case, then you can rule out prophecy as a direct motivation for the kidnapping. I still think it's possible that prophecy was indirectly responsible, as it may have caused Rhaegar to play the game of thrones in the first place.

Stand corrected on the Tullys--I was thinking about how Ned had to marry Cat and Lysa had to marry Jon Arryn to keep them in the rebellion.

I'm pretty convinced that the Inn at the Crossroads was a part of the abduction story. So, the Tyrion abduction provides some mirroring clues. But, yes, I am proposing that Aerys was aiming to abduct Lyanna and Rhaegar intercepted. I think that Aerys had the most to gain by kidnapping Lyanna, don't you think? And this action by Aerys would hamper Rhaegar's attempt at gaining Stark support. But Rhaegar blows up this plan and hides Lyanna away. Aerys counters with the Elia hostage maneuver. Makes sense to me, politically-speaking.

Tragic part of the abduction is that Rhaegar was unable to send messages to the Stark until it was too late.

Really, what I'm struggling with is the "message" that Rhaegar is sending the Starks by crowning Lyanna. One plausible explanation would be political pressure--i.e., "I know that she's the Knight of the Laughing Tree and I can let that be known to Aerys...so play ball." But, there could be other messages that I'm not thinking of.

[J. Stargaryen]

2 minutes ago, MindBomb said:

Stand corrected on the Tullys--I was thinking about how Ned had to marry Cat and Lysa had to marry Jon Arryn to keep them in the rebellion.

I'm pretty convinced that the Inn at the Crossroads was a part of the abduction story. So, the Tyrion abduction provides some mirroring clues. But, yes, I am proposing that Aerys was aiming to abduct Lyanna and Rhaegar intercepted. I think that Aerys had the most to gain by kidnapping Lyanna, don't you think? And this action by Aerys would hamper Rhaegar's attempt at gaining Stark support. But Rhaegar blows up this plan and hides Lyanna away. Aerys counters with the Elia hostage maneuver. Makes sense to me, politically-speaking.

This makes a lot of sense thematically, but TWoIaF says that the abduction happened less than 30 miles from HH, and the Inn at the Crossroads seems to be farther away than that.

It's tough to say for sure, because there are so many unknowns. I can imagine that Aerys would see the benefit in holding Lyanna hostage though. However, there are a couple of problems: 1) If Rhaegar was blowing up Aerys's plan, why didn't he just escort Lyanna to Riverrun? Or even back to HH, which seemed to be in Rhaegar's camp, since Lord Whent hosted the tourney for the prince. 2) Holding Elia and her children hostage makes sense by itself. But to do this, and then hand over the entire loyalist army to Rhaegar seems extremely risky to me. What's to stop Rhaegar from arresting, or murdering, his father then and there?

Your line of thinking has got me wondering if it isn't maybe possible that Aerys and Rhaegar were working together on the kidnapping. This is obviously different from what I've been proposing, and would require an assumption that the two had worked out their differences. But it might help explain how Aerys was able to send Hightower to summon Rhaegar back to KL. That said, I find it fairly unlikely just now.

Another explanation I had proposed many months ago was that Rhaegar married Lyanna to chop a leg or two off of STAB. If her marries her, he gives Lord Rickard the choice between being a grandfather to royalty or war. If Rickard chooses the former, Rhaegar probably also gains the Tullys as allies, and possibly the Arryns as well, but definitely not the Baratheons. If, and it's a big if, Rhaegar could get the Starks and Tullys on his side, he would be in the process of forming his own power bloc, along with Dorne.

2 minutes ago, MindBomb said:

Really, what I'm struggling with is the "message" that Rhaegar is sending the Starks by crowning Lyanna. One plausible explanation would be political pressure--i.e., "I know that she's the Knight of the Laughing Tree and I can let that be known to Aerys...so play ball." But, there could be other messages that I'm not thinking of.

There are a few possibilities for sure. Probably the easiest is that he was honoring her for her deeds as the KotLT.

[UnViserion]

3 hours ago, MtnLion said:

That is something that we cannot know at present.  In fact, In my opinion, the only descriptions that we have suggest that it is romantic in nature. 

Fixed. 

[UnmaskedLurker]

5 hours ago, J. Stargaryen said:

Once STAB confronts Aerys, and he doesn't side with them, which he won't, the conflict is no longer simply between Rhaegar and STAB, but the latter and House Targeryen. And Aerys is the head of House Targaryen.

For example, imagine that I have a kid who steals something from you. When you come to confront me about it, I take my kid's side. Are you only mad at my kid now? Or, imagine you tried appealing to an authority like the police, but were rebuffed. I think that many reasonable people would be upset with the police, even though they weren't the ones who stole things.

STAB would go to Aerys seeking some sort of justice, and would be rebuffed. Regardless of who started it, they would justifiably be pissed at Aerys. Not only is Aerys responsible for the actions of members of his house, but he is the ultimate authority in the 7K. Meaning that STAB could not expect any sort of justice for Lyanna's kidnapping.

I never claimed that Rhaegar was only doing one thing at a time, re: politics, prophecy or love. I simply showed that he was playing the game before and after the kidnapping. And since the kidnapping is, objectively speaking, necessarily political in nature, it makes sense that Rhaegar's motivation was political. That he was still playing the game. It's not conclusive proof, but it makes sense.

You're asking for speculation here, which you've already been given, and which you've already rejected. There are gaps in every explanation. However, I've addressed this a bit in answer to your first paragraph, and maybe you'll find this answer more persuasive. Or you won't. Either way, I think the underlying logic of the political motivation explanation is fairly solid. I'm not out to convince anyone that this is the right answer. Only that it might be, and that it's a plausible explanation.

I want to be clear that I am not opposed to the suggestion in principle. I sort of like the idea of Rhaegar taking Lyanna for political purposes. I just don't see how it works. And you keep stopping before showing how it could possibly work (because I am not sure it is plausible that it can).

Basically, of course, Rhaegar probably could be confident that Aerys would upset STAB if they went to him for satisfaction. I follow that point -- and I followed it when Rip basically suggested it. I never doubted that part of the theory. What I have asked of you -- and what you still have not given any suggestion at all -- is how Rahegar turns this situation to his advantage. Yes, I agree, they will be angry at Aerys. But they also will be angry at Rhaegar -- and Rhaegar is not a small child so they will also hold him responsible for his own actions (unlike your example where the child steals something). So they both are held responsible by STAB -- not really a good thing for Rhaegar.

So I agree that the plan can erode support for Aerys among the STAB parties -- but I don't see how this benefits Rhaegar when STAB will hate Rhaegar just as much if not more. All Rhaegar does is weaken the Targ dynasty -- I am still not seeing how he convinces STAB that even though it was Rhaegar who took Lyanna -- just look at how unreasonable Aerys is being in not punishing Rhaegar for his actions -- so side with Rhaegar over Aerys. It just makes no sense to me -- and neither you nor Rip has given any suggestion at all as to how Rhaegar gets STAB to side with Rhaegar over Aerys -- only that Rhaegar can make them hate both Rhaegar and Aerys -- which really does not help Rhaegar.

So I ask one last time -- because I want to like this theory -- please give me a possible scenario where Rhaegar could reasonably conclude that making STAB turn on Aerys because Aerys refuses to help them when Rhaegar kidnaps Lyanna -- can ultimately lead to STAB siding with Rhaegar in a challenge to Aerys. I really only need one plausible suggestion to prove it is plausible -- not really asking that it be the "real" strategy. But I cannot see ANY strategy that leads to Rhaegar turning STAB in favor of Rhaegar -- only a theory that gets STAB to turn against both Rhaegar and Aerys.

[J. Stargaryen]

3 hours ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

snip

For starters, Rhaegar would be holding Lyanna hostage, which should help keep STAB in check. Next, if they married -- whether that was planned ahead of time or not -- Rhaegar could possibly win 2-3 members of STAB to his side, as I laid out in my last post to MindBomb. This is an idea I've kicked around in the past.

Another possibility is that Rhaegar would have eventually revealed a good reason for kidnapping Lyanna, real or otherwise. Though the former would probably require Lyanna's cooperation, and the latter her complicity.

An alternative I don't think you are considering is that Rhaegar wasn't necessarily trying to make nice with STAB. Instead, he might have planned on holding Lyanna hostage in order to extort them as part of a plot to remove his father from power, by the vote of a GC or force if necessary. After the deed was done, Rhaegar could have exchanged Lyanna for some of the younger children from the STAB houses to ensure their continued loyalty. Ned/Benjen, Lysa/Edmure, and Stannis/Renly would have all made fine squires and/or cup bearers. And maybe someone like Jon Arryn could have been given a seat on the small council, if necessary.

Fundamentally, I'm not sure this plan is riskier than any of the alternative explanations that I am aware of since, at the end of the day, they all involve kidnapping Lyanna Stark.

[dreem24]

5 hours ago, J. Stargaryen said:

snip

 

Why would it keep em in check? It only works if the person is sentimental and/or cares for the hostage.
Maybe the starks but the tullys and arryns and baratheons? Why would anyone exchange more hostages for one that's not really important aka lyanna is not heir. And it may keep ned in chek but will Rickard be kept in chek by that or rebel who knows...
Also if he gives them direct claim to the throne what's to stop them from killing rhaegar and marrying the stark/targ to the stark/dornish and claiming the throne for themselves...
Also it may stop the starks but if Robert doesnt start rebelling he could have wed one of the tullys or cersei again. And it becomes Stark Tullys Arryn and lannister or remains STA plus baratheon.

Second if they are married he can't do anything to her can he?
What prince will let his wife be raped/killed or anything really.
What will he do kill her and become a kinslayer? Yeah...

 

Sorry for bad english.

[UnViserion]

I once proposed a workable theory as to why Rhaegar would kidnap Lyanna when it was obviously so bad for him to do so. Of course, since its foundation wasn't rooted in Jon being King of Westeros and savior to all it was dismissed as "making no sense" by this lot. One even took to quoting his/her/it's own personal conjecture and portraying it as canon-fact in his rebuttle

seeing this back and forth regarding intentions, STAB, who's mad at who, etc reminded me of it.

Sigh...If only this werent a 160 volume thread where discussion goes to die..

[MtnLion]

16 hours ago, J. Stargaryen said:

Noted.

I'm talking about from the realm's PoV, not Rhaegar's. The kidnapping of a great lord's daughter/the betrothed of another great lord is inherently political.

Oh, so you have a quote where someone in the realm is referring to it as political? 

[Sly Wren]

37 minutes ago, MtnLion said:

Oh, so you have a quote where someone in the realm is referring to it as political? 

Well, when Bael the Bard takes the daughter of the Stark in Winterfell, he does so for the express purpose of teaching said Stark in Winterfell a lesson.

Teaching an enemy a lesson by taking his child. Political. 

We've also got Aerys' "taking" Jaime from Tywin--Jaime knows pretty early on that it's about teaching Tywin a lesson. Also, limiting Tywin's ability to make a political marriage via Jaime.

So, taking person for political machinations, the novels give us clear examples of that.

And, given that marriages between great houses were political contracts, interfering in said contracts (like taking a betrothed girl) would innately be a political act.

[MtnLion]

Oh, it could be because of the flying spaghetti monster, too.  The best guess was that it was romantically motivated, by Daenerys.  Rhaegar cannot gain politically from abducting Lyanna.  I don't think that we should be stuck in this discussion on this thread.  It really does not matter what Rhaegar's motivation was, it is simply true that Rhaegar and Lyanna became the parents of Jon.  That is the purpose of this thread. 

[UnViserion]

22 minutes ago, MtnLion said:

.  I don't think that we should be stuck in this discussion on this thread.  It really does not matter what Rhaegar's motivation was, it is simply true that Rhaegar and Lyanna became the parents of Jon.  That is the purpose of this thread. 

Well then shouldn't it just be a declaration as opposed to a sprawling, ridiculous 160 volume thread?

 

[Bael's Bastard]

16 hours ago, J. Stargaryen said:

There are a few possibilities for sure. Probably the easiest is that he was honoring her for her deeds as the KotLT.

This is my take. I don't think there was romantic intent behind it, personally.

[John Courage]

6 minutes ago, MtnLion said:

Oh, it could be because of the flying spaghetti monster, too.  The best guess was that it was romantically motivated, by Daenerys.  Rhaegar cannot gain politically from abducting Lyanna.  I don't think that we should be stuck in this discussion on this thread.  It really does not matter what Rhaegar's motivation was, it is simply true that Rhaegar and Lyanna became the parents of Jon.  That is the purpose of this thread. 

This. The conjecture behind the WHY of Rhaegar's abduction of Lyanna should maybe have it's own thread. That said, to believe that Rhaegar's abduction of Lyanna was part of some complex multifaceted political scheme requires you to read things into the text that aren't there rather than produce an inference as a result of what is actually in the text.

[John Courage]

7 minutes ago, Rhaegar the Unworthy said:

Well then shouldn't it just be a declaration as opposed to a sprawling, ridiculous 160 volume thread?

 

I don't think the WHY of Rhaegar's abduction of Lyanna really has anything to do with R+L=J unless the discussion is leading to a conclusion that Jon is or is not the child of Rhaegar and Lyanna.

[J. Stargaryen]

8 hours ago, dreem24 said:

 

Why would it keep em in check? It only works if the person is sentimental and/or cares for the hostage.
Maybe the starks but the tullys and arryns and baratheons? Why would anyone exchange more hostages for one that's not really important aka lyanna is not heir. And it may keep ned in chek but will Rickard be kept in chek by that or rebel who knows...
Also if he gives them direct claim to the throne what's to stop them from killing rhaegar and marrying the stark/targ to the stark/dornish and claiming the throne for themselves...
Also it may stop the starks but if Robert doesnt start rebelling he could have wed one of the tullys or cersei again. And it becomes Stark Tullys Arryn and lannister or remains STA plus baratheon.

Second if they are married he can't do anything to her can he?
What prince will let his wife be raped/killed or anything really.
What will he do kill her and become a kinslayer? Yeah...

 

Sorry for bad english.

The S in STAB stands for Stark, and the B for Baratheon. Lyanna was Lord Stark's daughter and Robert's betrothed. With the latter said to have been in love with her. The Tullys and Arryns are part of an alliance with the Starks and Baratheons, and would cooperate with them on this matter. That's how alliances work.

If Rhaegar married Lyanna, I'd suppose he was counting on Rickard to keep the rest of STAB in check, more or less. Since, presumably, Rickard would not want his daughter hurt. Not only that, but he would have something to gain in the form of royal grandchildren.

You asked what would stop the rebels from killing Rhaegar to marry his Martell and Stark children... well, that may have been his plan anyway.

The Tullys will likely go along with the Starks, since they would have been family by marriage. So Robert marrying Lysa is out of the question. And I don't think Tywin would marry Cersei to a rebel lord who had no chance of winning a rebellion.

1 hour ago, MtnLion said:

Oh, so you have a quote where someone in the realm is referring to it as political? 

No. Do you have a quote where someone says that R+L=J? Guess it must not be true, right?

39 minutes ago, MtnLion said:

Oh, it could be because of the flying spaghetti monster, too.  The best guess was that it was romantically motivated, by Daenerys.  Rhaegar cannot gain politically from abducting Lyanna.  I don't think that we should be stuck in this discussion on this thread.  It really does not matter what Rhaegar's motivation was, it is simply true that Rhaegar and Lyanna became the parents of Jon.  That is the purpose of this thread. 

This thread is over two months old. If anything, this discussion is un-sticking it. If you think we're OT then report it to the mods. If they agree then I'll take my posts elsewhere.

21 minutes ago, John Courage said:

This. The conjecture behind the WHY of Rhaegar's abduction of Lyanna should maybe have it's own thread. That said, to believe that Rhaegar's abduction of Lyanna was part of some complex multifaceted political scheme requires you to read things into the text that aren't there rather than produce an inference as a result of what is actually in the text.

Really?

• Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna. In the text.
• Southron ambitions. In the text.
• Varys whispering to Aerys that HH was a plot by Rhaegar. In the text
• Rhaegar telling Jaime that he means to call a council when he returns from the Trident, and meant to long ago. In the text.

It's almost like you're completely mistaken when you say my conclusion is not based on the text. And for the record, that's the second time you've attacked my argument without actually addressing any points I have made.

[J. Stargaryen]

7 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Well, when Bael the Bard takes the daughter of the Stark in Winterfell, he does so for the express purpose of teaching said Stark in Winterfell a lesson.

Teaching an enemy a lesson by taking his child. Political. 

We've also got Aerys' "taking" Jaime from Tywin--Jaime knows pretty early on that it's about teaching Tywin a lesson. Also, limiting Tywin's ability to make a political marriage via Jaime.

So, taking person for political machinations, the novels give us clear examples of that.

And, given that marriages between great houses were political contracts, interfering in said contracts (like taking a betrothed girl) would innately be a political act.

I missed this initially. Good post.