R+L=J v.160

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

25 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Because the king is batshit crazy, will be removed as soon as possible and the Prince becomes the King and his son-in-law. As for the Stormlands, Rickard is completely blameless here - it was all Rhaegar's doing, he took Lyanna, and now that they are married and Lyanna pregnant, there isn't really anything that Rickard can do... and nor can Robert. Even if he or the Faith or all of the Seven Kingdoms refused to accept her marriage, she is no longer eligible to become his wife. He cannot rebel because no-one would support him, and given time, Jon Arryn would talk him out of it.

Rickard might be blameless, but that won't mean that the Baratheon's won't be angry. 

Perhaps I should have phrased my question differently.  "Would Rickard see more advantage in a Lyanna/Rhaegar marriage, or more disadvantage?".

Remember, Aerys has not yet been removed from power, and thus, is perfectly capable of reacting against Rhaegar. Should he feel threatened by this marriage, Aerys could arrest them both, and perhaps even declare them to be traitors. Meanwhile, Rickard would need to face anger from the Stormlands (blameless or not), while he had looked false himself  (just as Tywin had done when Jaime was named to the KG without Tywin's involvement, at a moment where Tywin had been negotiating Jaime's betrothal). What potential impact could that have on Brandon's betrothal to Catelyn, for example?  Would Rickard be willing to risk that? For a marriage that would not even lead to the heir to the Iron Throne?

And Robert would certainly have had potential support. Dorne's reaction should not be forgotten. A Rhaegar/Lyanna marriage would be an additional insult to Elia, and that, Dorne might not be willing to suffer. Aerys also still had plenty of "supporters" (for lack of a better word) at court, who had been against Rhaegar for some time by then. They could not count upon acceptance of Rhaegar in his court, so should certainly have been a potential ally for anyone who would oppose Rhaegar.

 

What I'm trying to say is that I'm not so sure that Rickard would have seen more advantage in such a match than disadvantage. So if you have additional thoughts on why he might have seen more advantage, I'd be interested in reading them 

[Greymoon]

17 hours ago, John Courage said:

No council at HH, so no political conspiracy. Unless you can point to somewhere in the text where it says Rhaegar actually met with and conspired with these people at any other point concerning Aerys or abducting Lyanna to touch of some crazy convoluted scheme, I think you're putting more into the text than you're taking away from it. The mystery surrounding the abduction of Lyanna by Rhaegar is provided context through visions, dreams, and old memories, that all seem to hint at romance or prophecy. No one remembers the events as if Rhaegar was acting out some half cooked political conspiracy.

Sorry to jump into the conversation like that, but....

I too am of the opinion that Rhaegar's motives were first and foremost political. There are many hints in the text, just like J.Stargaryen pointed out...and in that light, it makes sense to look the events at Harrenhal as politicaly motivated, as well.

We have a few characters that are mentioned quite often in the text, characters that seem important to the story but haven't made an appearance, yet. Ashara Dayne is such a character. 

She may be dead, of course, but that's not the point. The point is that she gets mentioned a lot and that she had something to do with Harrenhal. Her role was an important one, imo. She didn't get mentioned in Meera's tale just because she was in love with a Stark. That may even be a red herring, a cover story.

We know that Aerys came to Harrenhal, so having a council, meeting with different people to openly plot against the king wasn't really an option anymore. But that doesn't mean that there wasn't a covert operation taking place, right beneath Aerys's nose. And that's precisely where Ashara comes in. She was, imo, the one to gather/pass on information. 

As a companion to Elia, as sister to one of Rhaegar's oldest friend, as an unmarried, dornish woman (and whatever prejudice is attached to the label), she was in an ideal position to pass on information. She was free to speak to Elia without raising suspicion, she was free to speak to Arthur without raising suspicion, she was free to dance with the sons of great houses, without raising suspicion. And she did dance. She had multiple dance partners, even.

Ashara having been an active player in whatever political folly Rhaegar was engaged in would also account for a terrible feeling of guilt – leading to her suicide.

[John Courage]

15 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

If Rhaegar indeed had planned to make some moves at HH, that plan was only postponed, not abandoned, and a secret pact with Rickard would inevitably make the Starks Rhaegar's allies. However, I think that Lyanna was his primary motivation and politics sort of tagged along.

Alas, no textual support for this, no, unless you count that peculiar lack of mention of any action on Rickard's part after the supposed abduction.

Ok, I like this theory. It ties what we know of Rhaegar's and Lyanna's relationship together with a nascent political motivation, that could make sense. However, since all the houses associated with the southron ambitions conspiracy rebel against the crown immediately after the deaths of Rickard and Brandon, or rise up with Jon Arryn when he refuses to hand Ned and Robert over to the crown, I would have to assume that Lyanna's "abduction" was a very early stage in the conspiracy, in which no other houses have any knowledge, nor are they included in any other political maneuverings. Was Rhaegar conspiring with Rickard alone at this point?

[Kal-L]

44 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Huh? You mean Rhaegar's son Aegon?

I don't see how this is supposed to be simpler or more convenient:

1) You cannot broker a deal for nonexistent children; what if Brandon had no daughters?

2) Why would Aerys or Rhaegar ever agree to such a match?

3) What if Aegon dies in childhood?

 

Yeah I meant Rhaegar's son, Aegon. What Aerys has to do with Rhaegar and Rickard talk ? Rhaegar wants the stupport of the STAB allaince what is the problem with this ? He has everything to gain actually so why would would ever disagree to such a match ? The pact of Ice and Fire can effectively sealed by a marriage between a Targaryien heir (Aegon or Viserys) and a Stark daughter. If Brandon happens to have no sons a marriage can be made between Rhaenys and Brandon's sons.

44 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Vastly exaggerating here as the realm is already used to turning a blind eye towards Targaryen marriage excesses. Besides, which one was a glorified mistress, Visenya or Rhaenys?

The realm turned 'blind eye' to poligamy and in the other hand Targs stopped with others mores such as poligamy. No king ever did anything as such during the centures that followed the conquest even with dragons, Aegon IV the unworthy never dared to do it and had to dismiss his mistress just for merely considere the idea a marriage after the likely death of his wife.  Glorified mistress because that's what it is, they want their cake and to it.

[Erudain]

Dorne doesn't really have much to complain about if Rhaegar gets Lyanna into a polygamous marriage.
Elia would still be queen as well and Aegon would still be the 1st on the line to the throne.

And don't forget Dornish relationships and sex life is waaaay more relaxed and leeway than in the other kingdoms

[John Courage]

9 minutes ago, Greymoon said:

I too am of the opinion that Rhaegar's motives were first and foremost political. There are many hints in the text

Which are?

 

Rhaegar tells Jaime that nothing ever took place. He tells him that he meant to do something sooner, but its best not to dwell on roads not taken. I just think there is more textual support to suggest that Rhaegar acted out of love for Lyanna and pursuit of prophecy than any political motivation. If there was any conspiracy between Rhaegar and Rickard I think it was to help Lyanna get out of her betrothal with Robert with her honor intact, and to improve the status of the Starks by making one a queen and giving Rickard a royal son-in-law and a royal grandson. I just don't believe that Rhaegar ever acted on his intentions to conspire against his father, this is the road not taken he is talking about when he's talking to Jaime and leaves Kings Landing to meet Robert at the Trident.

[MindBomb]

3 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

But why would Rickard agree to support the Prince over the King, angering the Stormlands in the process?

This was the purpose of the Harrenhall Tourney--Rhaegar was feeling out possible Stark support. I don't think an alliance had been formed, or else why would Brandon be so upset at the crowning of Lyanna?

From the World book, we know that factions supporting Rhaegar and Aerys were vying for power in Kings Landing. In the meantime, we have a growing third power bloc being formed with the STAB alliance. This alliance can be seen as a "kingmaker," if you're a Targaryen, OR a separate growing influence of the Lords Paramount and a weakening of the monarchy altogether.

What are the incentives for each power bloc?

Team Rhaegar = Dorne (Martells and Daynes) + Westerlands (Lannisters) with partial support from the Whents and Connington. Needs the support of at least two more kingdoms to remove Aerys and ascend to the Iron Throne. Therefore, he needs to either peel away two of the houses in the STAB alliance or gain support from the alliance altogether.

King Aerys = Reach (Tyrells). Needs to counter Rhaegar's support and weaken the growing alliances of the Lords Paramounts. Therefore, he needs to blow up the STAB alliance.

STAB Alliance = North (Stark) + Riverlands (Tully) + Vale (Arryn) + Stormlands (Barratheon). Needs to solidify its alliance and gain the support of the other Lords--Tywin, Martell, and Tyrell. Keep a wavering Lyanna on track to marry Robert.

My hypothesis: Rhaegar approached members of the STAB, or at the very least the Starks, and was rebuffed or forestalled. Aerys wants to detain the KotLT. Rhaegar crowns Lyanna alerting the Starks to his knowledge that Lyanna is the KotLT to pressure the Starks (and also as a sign of respect). Aerys eventually figures out the same thing and sends a group of men after her. Rhaegar intercepts the planned arrest of Lyanna and abducts saves her(and his prospects at gaining the throne). If Rhaegar is caught with Lyanna, he is killed for treason. Both go into hiding. Before they can get any word out, Brandon flips and Aerys takes advantage by taking out the Starks and potentially blowing up the STAB alliance. Certainly, it greatly dampens Rhaegar's ability to gain STAB support. Aerys has Jaime to neutralize the Lannisters and then recalls Elia and kids to Kings Landing to neutralize the Martells.

A political view of the abduction is the only one that makes any rational sense to explain Rhaegar's behavior. A romantic lens makes him look like selfish idiot--selfish because he turns his back on Elia and his young family and stupid because it upsets the entire kingdom. A prophecy lens makes him look like a dogmatic idiot--following the prophecy to not only his doom, but to the death of thousands without any guarantee he was right. A variant of these views have been presented over the many pages of this thread by those who oppose R+L=J. That's why this exploration is important (plus, it's one of those interesting gaps still remaining).

[MindBomb]

1 hour ago, Greymoon said:

Sorry to jump into the conversation like that, but....

 

I too am of the opinion that Rhaegar's motives were first and foremost political. There are many hints in the text, just like J.Stargaryen pointed out...and in that light, it makes sense to look the events at Harrenhal as politicaly motivated, as well.

 

We have a few characters that are mentioned quite often in the text, characters that seem important to the story but haven't made an appearance, yet. Ashara Dayne is such a character. 

 

She may be dead, of course, but that's not the point. The point is that she gets mentioned a lot and that she had something to do with Harrenhal. Her role was an important one, imo. She didn't get mentioned in Meera's tale just because she was in love with a Stark. That may even be a red herring, a cover story.

 

We know that Aerys came to Harrenhal, so having a council, meeting with different people to openly plot against the king wasn't really an option anymore. But that doesn't mean that there wasn't a covert operation taking place, right beneath Aerys's nose. And that's precisely where Ashara comes in. She was, imo, the one to gather/pass on information. 

 

As a companion to Elia, as sister to one of Rhaegar's oldest friend, as an unmarried, dornish woman (and whatever prejudice is attached to the label), she was in an ideal position to pass on information. She was free to speak to Elia without raising suspicion, she was free to speak to Arthur without raising suspicion, she was free to dance with the sons of great houses, without raising suspicion. And she did dance. She had multiple dance partners, even.

 

Ashara having been an active player in whatever political folly Rhaegar was engaged in would also account for a terrible feeling of guilt – leading to her suicide.

 

I like it. Very good observation.

[Greymoon]

1 minute ago, John Courage said:

Which are?

J. Stargaryen covered parts of that already.... I don't necessarily support the idea that there was a secret agreement between Rhaegar and Rickard, but, I have other objections...

Since when is it a good idea to shelter your love in an abandoned watch/guard tower on the dornish border, when your own wife is dornish? a guard tower would have little comfort, it would be spartan with only the basic infrastructure meant to help guard the border. Abandoned during times of peace, there would be nothing in there to accommodate any sort of guests.

Not to mention that Houses Manwoody and Fowler are meant to guard that pass anyway. House Fowler holds the title of "warden of the pass". Both houses are sworn to House Martell. Don't tell me that during war time (during RR) neither houses actually did it's duty and guarded that pass…all in all, it was a pretty awful hiding spot, if you were hiding from the Martells or didn’t want anyone to know about your illicit love affair.

It is more likely imo, that Rhaegar got stranded at the tower of joy while trying to enter dorne, to find shelter with his in-laws. Whether the Martells took offense because Rhaegar somehow had Lyanna with him, or whether they didn't want to commit treason after all because Elia might have been endangered, I don’t know…

Still I think the original plan was for Rhaegar to prepare his coup while in dornish territory... The history of dorne is a history of resistance and armed rebellion. It would seem like a good place to start a coup against the Iron Throne....

anyway...I believe he was refused shelter and had to renegotiated Dorne's involvement in that political coup against his father....and later, in the war. Thus explaining his long absence from King's Landing. 

As for the timing, I find it suspicious that Rhaegar left so shortly after Aegon's birth. Well, sort of. On the one hand, it's a good timing, finally he has an heir...an heir that is not Viserys.... that's important if you mean to commit treason against your king... on the other hand though, we have no indication that Rhaegar actually changed his mind concerning Aegon being the PtwP... so the apparent neglect toward his promised prince, his wife Elia and his daughter Rhaenys, seems to indicate that there was a last minute change of plans.

This change of plans can be explained with the rescue theory.

Imagine you have been plotting against your father for years, you've finally gathered the allies you need (Harrenhal), you finally have an heir (Aegon's birth), and you are just about ready to stage your coup -- and just like that, everything you've worked for risks unravelling because the King decides to kidnap the daughter of a great house...the logical thing to do, is take matters into your own hands, so that when the conflict breaks out it happens on your terms (think Varys and Illyrio...)

Why not bring Lyanna to Winterfell then, if the idea was to get her to safety, away from Aerys, in order to prevent conflict? because by rescuing her, he defied Aerys, and set things in motion. He had no time to waste. The plan had always been to go to Dorne and organize his “resistance” from there, so he did... and Lyanna was brought along for lack of a better solution.

Later, they fell in bed together, or whatever.

[UnViserion]

22 hours ago, John Courage said:

I don't need a couple hundred of posts to discuss any topic with anyone, I've been reading the novels since 1997, so my decades worth of rereads constitutes a pretty well rounded understanding of the series and an opinion as valid as anyone elses. I was suggesting that if the discussion doesn't have to do with whether or not R+L=J is true, then maybe it should have its own thread. A thread called "Why did Rhaegar abduct Lyanna", K? 

 

decades worth of reading and you can't figure out what does and does not belong in an RLJ thread

k

[John Courage]

On 2/18/2016 at 5:55 PM, SFDanny said:

A thread for discussing strengths and weaknesses of the theory that Jon Snow's parents are Rhaegar and Lyanna.

 

1 hour ago, Rhaegar the Unworthy said:

 

decades worth of reading and you can't figure out what does and does not belong in an RLJ thread

k

Heyyy whats up Mr. 900 posts. Nah, I know what goes where . Which is exactly why I sided with Mtn Ln when I said a multi page discussion concerning only the abduction and a theorized conspiracy behind it, not the validity of RLJ, really should have its own thread. That's just my take on it though. If everyone else is happy discussing it here, then so am I. 

[John Courage]

4 hours ago, Greymoon said:

J. Stargaryen covered parts of that already

No he didn't, because there is no textual evidence to suggest that Rhaegar was conspiring with anyone. All we have is Rhaegar telling Jaime that he meant do something sooner, but it's better to not dwell on roads not taken. There is no textual evidence that suggests Rhaegar was conspiring with anyone to depose his father. If he had been hoping to hold a secret meeting at HH, it never happened. How do we know this? It's the last thing he ever tells Jaime before he marches out of King's Landing to meet Robert at the Trident. There is nothing to suggest Rhaegar was conspiring with anyone. The entire mystery surrounding the relationship between Rhaegar and Lyanna is provided context through visions, dreams, and old memories, none of which ever hints at any political motivation for Rhaegar's abduction of Lyanna. We have the tourney at HH. Rhaegar discovers Lyanna is the TKotLT. Crowns her as QoLaB. Offending both Aerys AND the Starks and Baratheons. So in one gesture he manages to alienate the crown AND the future rebels. Aerys believes he's trying to curry favor with the Starks, while the Starks believe he is impugning Lyanna's honor, how would this be a wise maneuver for someone trying to win allies to depose his father? The tourney is over and everyone goes home. During intervening year between the tourney and Lyanna's abduction, Aegon is born and Rhaegar learns that Elia will bear no more children, leaving TPTWP prophecy incomplete. We know this prophecy was something that Rhaegar pursued his entire life. It wasn't just something he was interested in, it was something he actively sought to accomplish literally, throughout his entire life. How will he complete the prophecy, who will bear him another child? Barristan tells us that Rhaegar was "fond" of Elia, but he "loved" his Stark girl. This in conjunction with all the visions, dreams, and old memories provides us with all the reason we need for why Rhaegar abducted Lyanna. Rhaegar was motivated by prophecy and romance. There is literally no textual evidence to support a politically motivated abduction.

[dreem24]

7 hours ago, Greymoon said:

Still I think the original plan was for Rhaegar to prepare his coup while in dornish territory... The history of dorne is a history of resistance and armed rebellion. It would seem like a good place to start a coup against the Iron Throne....

 

 

anyway...I believe he was refused shelter and had to renegotiated Dorne's involvement in that political coup against his father....and later, in the war. Thus explaining his long absence from King's Landing. 

The lack of rulership/political will is what's to blame for dorne resisting had any of the targs send the rest 6 kingdoms fleet and kill everyone they find in the cities and keep doing it for about 10-20 years there would be no dornishmen then repopulate with loyal crown supporters...

 

Srsly what did dorne do?  Wait at passes and hid in mountains have a army in the reach and stormlands in marching distance to the passes and send ships when they find women and children kill them all even as a bolton fan i say flay em  mount on pikes 100 meters in every direction and go back wait a few years send a new bastard battalion to do the same...  Reward thoose who particapete in everything from rape to killing and torture and those that do not put on displey for lack of brotherhood with the rest i''m sure they'll all comeback...

 

Rant over.... Sorry for spam just dorne is so overrated ...

[Rippounet]

Hey guys... Was away for a few days...

15 hours ago, John Courage said:

Rhaegar tells Jaime that nothing ever took place. He tells him that he meant to do something sooner, but its best not to dwell on roads not taken.

8 hours ago, John Courage said:

No he didn't, because there is no textual evidence to suggest that Rhaegar was conspiring with anyone. All we have is Rhaegar telling Jaime that he meant do something sooner, but it's better to not dwell on roads not taken. There is no textual evidence that suggests Rhaegar was conspiring with anyone to depose his father. If he had been hoping to hold a secret meeting at HH, it never happened. How do we know this? It's the last thing he ever tells Jaime before he marches out of King's Landing to meet Robert at the Trident. There is nothing to suggest Rhaegar was conspiring with anyone.

As I like to say on the forum, repeating something again and again doesn't make it true.
As JS said, this quote gives us evidence that Rhaegar had in fact made plans to call a council, and we have text from TWOAIF clearly saying that this was to happen at HH. And since TWOAIF even tells us that the idea that Rhaegar was behind HH was widely shared in Westeros, we can safely say that Rhaegar at least conspired with the Whents, especially since Oswell Whent was a key element in the organisation of the tournament, and also happened to be with Rhaegar when he abducted Lyanna.
But in fact, if you think in political terms, it's possible to go further than that. Politically speaking, there is no way anyone can organise a "surprise council." You don't organise a highly political meeting without being relatively confident of its conclusion (this is made quite obvious throughout the books) ; if Rhaegar meant to call a council, he evidently could count on the support of at least one lord paramount, if not several. TWOAIF screams the idea that Tywin was a strong supporter of Rhaegar against Aerys, and it seems suggested that the Martells were on Rhaegar's side as well. Anyway, TWOAIF says (and the source here is actually Pycelle, not Yandel) that the court in KL was divided between those supporting Rhaegar and those supporting Aerys and that the situation was very tense.
Basically, saying there is no evidence of a conspiracy means dismissing a lot of text. And I know that Yandel is biased, but that doesn't make him completely unreliable ; he may toy with the interpretation of events, but he's very unlikely to flat out invent them, especially when some elements are common knowledge.
All in all I find the dots very easy to connect. But I understand that it takes a bit of time to understand - and accept- what TWOAIF really reminds us of. And btw, let's bear in mind that the authors of that book did want to give the readers some genuine information, although you sometimes need to read between the lines to understand what the information is.

Now we disagree on whether Rhaegar stopped scheming after HH or not. Frankly I think assuming he did is a bit ridiculous (you don't just "stop" playing the game of thrones... ), and I think that twisting the quote to argue that's what it says is even more so (seriously, people need to stop doing that). But we can agree to disagree on this one if you want. Saying that there is nothing to suggest Rhaegar conspiring however is just flat out wrong: either you're choosing to dismiss many quotes from both the books and TWOAIF, either you just don't know the text well enough.

And just for good measure, even without TWOAIF, we already had this quote (among others) in the books:

Quote

The memory was still bitter. Old Lord Whent had announced the tourney shortly after a visit from his brother, Ser Oswell Whent of the Kingsguard. With Varys whispering in his ear, King Aerys became convinced that his son was conspiring to depose him, that Whent's tourney was but a ploy to give Rhaegar a pretext for meeting with as many great lords as could be brought together. Aerys had not set foot outside the Red Keep since Duskendale, yet suddenly he announced that he would accompany Prince Rhaegar to Harrenhal, and everything had gone awry from there.

With the corroboration from Jaime AND TWOAIF, that's as rock solid as it gets, within the context of discussions on ASOAIF. So let's start putting aside the silly "Nothing suggests... " affirmations, uh?
 

15 hours ago, John Courage said:

I just think there is more textual support to suggest that Rhaegar acted out of love for Lyanna and pursuit of prophecy than any political motivation.

Not from a quantitative point of view at least. I did a quick search on "a search of ice and fire" and there are slightly more quotes about Rhaegar as a political player than as a prophecy-obsessed one (just as there are more quotes of him of a musician or a jouster!). In fact, prophecy is hardly mentioned directly in relation to Rhaegar (three times I believe, perhaps four if I overlooked one), but those specific quotes seem so important that everyone tends to forget there are so few of them.
Even apart from quotes showing Rhaegar as a political player himself, we have many quotes about Rhaegar's wedding, which was highly political (which suggests that he could very well accomodate both political and prophecy-related reasons btw, since he came to see Elia as the mother of the PtwP).

As for romance, it's a tricky thing, what with the rebels arguing that Rhaegar raped Lyanna... But it's clear from the context that Daenerys's romantic view of the abduction (for example) is... Just that: a romantic view of the event (and she's arguably aware of that too).
So yes, Rhaegar fell in love with Lyanna ; we don't know when though.
Generally speaking, the romantic angle as motive for the abduction has a lot of textual support... Because it's what most characters who think about it seem to believe (Barry, Jorah, Daenerys, Cersei... ). I'd go with it if someone politically astute had said so as well (ideally, Tywin or Varys). As it is, I'm unconvinced...

I'd even go so far as to say that one should be careful about seeing too much romance in ASOAIF...

Quote

Daenerys Targaryen loved her captain, but that was the girl in her, not the queen. Prince Rhaegar loved his Lady Lyanna, and thousands died for it. Daemon Blackfyre loved the first Daenerys, and rose in rebellion when denied her. Bittersteel and Bloodraven both loved Shiera Seastar, and the Seven Kingdoms bled. The Prince of Dragonflies loved Jenny of Oldstones so much he cast aside a crown, and Westeros paid the bride price in corpses. All three of the sons of the fifth Aegon had wed for love, in defiance of their father's wishes. And because that unlikely monarch had himself followed his heart when he chose his queen, he allowed his sons to have their way, making bitter enemies where he might have had fast friends. Treason and turmoil followed, as night follows day, ending at Summerhall in sorcery, fire, and grief.

This here is Barry musing over people's motives over the years... Is he really correct though? Dany does love Daario but she also seems to realize it is a girlish fantasy of hers and so far she actually has chosen her duty and even married someone else. It's not clear Daemon Blackfyre rebelled because of Daenerys at all. Similarly, it's a stretch to say that Bittersteel and Bloodraven were only fighting over Shiera. As for Aegon "Egg" (whom we know well), it's true that his marrying for love ended up being a problem (and even more so when he allowed his son Duncan to do so as well), but then it wasn't initially a political issue since no one imagined he would become king...
If anything, this quote (and others) suggests, imho, that one should be very careful about making assumptions about the motives of others, and that Barry is not as reliable as he seems.

 

8 hours ago, John Courage said:

 We have the tourney at HH. Rhaegar discovers Lyanna is the TKotLT. Crowns her as QoLaB. Offending both Aerys AND the Starks and Baratheons. So in one gesture he manages to alienate the crown AND the future rebels. Aerys believes he's trying to curry favor with the Starks, while the Starks believe he is impugning Lyanna's honor, how would this be a wise maneuver for someone trying to win allies to depose his father?

Let's be careful about what we assume about Harrenhal, shall we? That Rhaegar discovered Lyanna was the KotLT is reasonable enough, but we don't know whether this was his only, or even primary motive for crowning her QoLaB. And we actually know little about how Rhaegar's move was seen at the time: we don't have the reaction of key people like Lyanna, Elia and Rickard for example, nor do we have an analysis from anyone who was politically astute (remember how young Ned was). In fact, bottom line is, we really don't know what effect the garland really had. So Brandon was angry, Robert laughed, and someone told Aerys it was a political move... That's close to having no information at all...

8 hours ago, John Courage said:

The entire mystery surrounding the relationship between Rhaegar and Lyanna is provided context through visions, dreams, and old memories, none of which ever hints at any political motivation for Rhaegar's abduction of Lyanna. [...] There is literally no textual evidence to support a politically motivated abduction.

This is denying the obvious: the abduction actually had huge political repercussions. It started a conflict that then turned into a war. Even if you don't see the war as predictable, there's no way you can say the conflict wasn't. As JS said, the abduction is political in nature, whether this is the motive for it or not.
Basically, we always come back to the fact that saying Rhaegar abducting Lyanna was motivated by prophecy or romance means that he dismissed or overlooked the likely political consequences of his act. It's pretty much saying that he was not at all into politics.
Except he was, we very much have textual evidence of that.
So what is it that you (and others) are really saying? That love (and/or prophecy) made him suddenly blind to politics? Or that Rhaegar was dumb enough not to see the conflict coming? That is a theory in itself (especially since the prophecy arguably has a very political aspect to it...). One that perhaps should require textual support, if people were more objective.

Nah, Rhaegar at least had a plan to deal with the political fallout, and that plan was thwarted. By Brandon's reaction and/or shadow players is my guess. As for his motives... None of them are mutually exclusive, so it's quite possible that he took everything into account: a nascent attraction for Lyanna, the slim chance that she might be the ice to his fire, and whatever political advantage her abduction might provide.

I think many readers actually like the romantic notion that Rhaegar did forget about politics as far as Lyanna was concerned. They like to believe that Martin wrote a story in which Rhaegar and Lyanna are a romantic couple like Romeo and Juliet or Paris and Helen.

 

[MtnLion]

17 hours ago, MindBomb said:

A political view of the abduction is the only one that makes any rational sense to explain Rhaegar's behavior. A romantic lens makes him look like selfish idiot--selfish because he turns his back on Elia and his young family and stupid because it upsets the entire kingdom. A prophecy lens makes him look like a dogmatic idiot--following the prophecy to not only his doom, but to the death of thousands without any guarantee he was right. A variant of these views have been presented over the many pages of this thread by those who oppose R+L=J. That's why this exploration is important (plus, it's one of those interesting gaps still remaining).

The point here, is that your focus appears to be solely on Rhaegar as the motivator.  It completely ignores Lyanna's motivation.  I see it as far more likely that Lyanna approached Rhaegar, as the crown prince, about a way out of her betrothal to Robert.  The relationship evolved, and they eventually run off together.  I cannot see any evidence in the text to support that Aerys pursued the KotLT beyond Harrenhal.  There is at least nine months, more likely a year between Harrenhal and the abduction, certainly enough time for Aerys' obsession to become common knowledge, if he had one.  This coin has two sides, ignoring one side will bite us in the end. 

I will make it official, though and report the deviation from theme.  This is a side topic, that should be discussed elsewhere, and has nothing to do with R+L=J.  (Perhaps the Heresy folks are stumped on finding good participants to play with on their thread?) 

[Ygrain]

19 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Rickard might be blameless, but that won't mean that the Baratheon's won't be angry. 

Perhaps I should have phrased my question differently.  "Would Rickard see more advantage in a Lyanna/Rhaegar marriage, or more disadvantage?".

I'd say that there is no risk without gain, and getting your grandchildren into the royal succession is a pretty big deal.

19 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Remember, Aerys has not yet been removed from power, and thus, is perfectly capable of reacting against Rhaegar. Should he feel threatened by this marriage, Aerys could arrest them both, and perhaps even declare them to be traitors. Meanwhile, Rickard would need to face anger from the Stormlands (blameless or not), while he had looked false himself  (just as Tywin had done when Jaime was named to the KG without Tywin's involvement, at a moment where Tywin had been negotiating Jaime's betrothal). What potential impact could that have on Brandon's betrothal to Catelyn, for example?  Would Rickard be willing to risk that? For a marriage that would not even lead to the heir to the Iron Throne?

To act against Rhaegar, Aerys would first have had to find him, andI since Rhaegar was nowhere around for damage control after Brandon's act, this was probably part of the plan from the very beginning. After that, he probably planned to appease Aerys somehow.

I'm sorry, I still don't understand why Robert whould be angry with Rickard. It is not Rickard's fault that Rhaegar made off with Lyanna, Rhaegar is the sole culprit to blame and Rickard put up an appropriately indignant act.

Also, not sure why it should affect Brandon and Cat - why should Hoster Tully be concerned with Robert losing his betrothed? Not to mention that, had Brandon not left for KL, he would have been married by the time Hoster learns about the abduction.

19 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

And Robert would certainly have had potential support. Dorne's reaction should not be forgotten. A Rhaegar/Lyanna marriage would be an additional insult to Elia, and that, Dorne might not be willing to suffer.

Here is where Elia plays a crucial role. If she is in on the plan, then she can mollify her brothers. Besides, as long as Elia remains Rhaegar's wife and Aegon his heir, Dorne doesn't lose a thing.

19 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Aerys also still had plenty of "supporters" (for lack of a better word) at court, who had been against Rhaegar for some time by then. They could not count upon acceptance of Rhaegar in his court, so should certainly have been a potential ally for anyone who would oppose Rhaegar.

Certainly, but if Rhaegar has the support of Dorne, Starks, Tullys and Arryns (and given Robert's relationship with Ned and Jon Arryn, perhaps even the whole STAB), then Rhaegar has a power base for a takeover.

 

19 hours ago, Greymoon said:

And that's precisely where Ashara comes in. She was, imo, the one to gather/pass on information. 

As a companion to Elia, as sister to one of Rhaegar's oldest friend, as an unmarried, dornish woman (and whatever prejudice is attached to the label), she was in an ideal position to pass on information. She was free to speak to Elia without raising suspicion, she was free to speak to Arthur without raising suspicion, she was free to dance with the sons of great houses, without raising suspicion. And she did dance. She had multiple dance partners, even.

That's an excellent idea!

19 hours ago, John Courage said:

Ok, I like this theory. It ties what we know of Rhaegar's and Lyanna's relationship together with a nascent political motivation, that could make sense. However, since all the houses associated with the southron ambitions conspiracy rebel against the crown immediately after the deaths of Rickard and Brandon, or rise up with Jon Arryn when he refuses to hand Ned and Robert over to the crown, I would have to assume that Lyanna's "abduction" was a very early stage in the conspiracy, in which no other houses have any knowledge, nor are they included in any other political maneuverings. Was Rhaegar conspiring with Rickard alone at this point?

That's my take on it - if some secret deal was indeed struck, it was solely between Rhaegar and Rickard.

19 hours ago, Kal-L said:

Yeah I meant Rhaegar's son, Aegon. What Aerys has to do with Rhaegar and Rickard talk ? Rhaegar wants the stupport of the STAB allaince what is the problem with this ? He has everything to gain actually so why would would ever disagree to such a match ? The pact of Ice and Fire can effectively sealed by a marriage between a Targaryien heir (Aegon or Viserys) and a Stark daughter.

An existing Stark daughter is a way safer seal than one who is yet to be conceived. The seal is, so to say, immediate.

 

19 hours ago, Kal-L said:

If Brandon happens to have no sons a marriage can be made between Rhaenys and Brandon's sons.

I seem to be a weei bit confused over this.

19 hours ago, Kal-L said:

The realm turned 'blind eye' to poligamy and in the other hand Targs stopped with others mores such as poligamy. No king ever did anything as such during the centures that followed the conquest even with dragons,

They actually didn't consider polygamy a common more in the first place, and they never stopped any mores because they won - they kept their incest and disarmed the Faith.And Rhaenyra and Daemon did think that it was an option.

19 hours ago, Kal-L said:

Aegon IV the unworthy never dared to do it and had to dismiss his mistress just for merely considere the idea a marriage after the likely death of his wife.  Glorified mistress because that's what it is, they want their cake and to it.

Not what happened:

 Hoping that Naerys would die and he could make his daughter a queen, Lord Bracken spoke openly of wedding Barba to Aegon. When Naerys eventually recovered, Prince Daeron and Prince Aemon forced Aegon to send the Brackens away from court.

1 hour ago, Rippounet said:

They like to believe that Martin wrote a story in which Rhaegar and Lyanna are a romantic couple like Romeo and Juliet or Paris and Helen.

Funny, an abduction which leads to a destruction of one's homeland and demise of their whole family sounds exactly like what Martin has written. Nor does a double suicide caused by a communication failure and surrounded by a couple of other death sound particularly more cheerful than Martin's writing.

BTW, I wouldn't be surprised if a communication failure played a role in the events leading up to RR, as well.

[Rippounet]

14 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Funny, an abduction which leads to a destruction of one's homeland and demise of their whole family sounds exactly like what Martin has written.

Ha ha, yeah, it sure does, should have phrased that argument better. My point was that Rhaegar is likely smarter (/better at understanding politics) than Paris and smarter (/better at making plans) than Romeo. Just as Lyanna is, I believe a very different character than either Helen or Juliet.

The parallel with the abduction of Helen is certainly interesting though, since there are various versions of it... Including one in which the abduction itself is a sham and Paris has been framed... 

14 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Nor does a double suicide caused by a communication failure and surrounded by a couple of other death sound particularly more cheerful than Martin's writing.
BTW, I wouldn't be surprised if a communication failure played a role in the events leading up to RR, as well.

Same here. Though I tend to think a maester helped with the "failure."

[John Courage]

1 hour ago, Rippounet said:

As I like to say on the forum, repeating something again and again doesn't make it true.
As JS said, this quote gives us evidence that Rhaegar had in fact made plans to call a council, and we have text from TWOAIF clearly saying that this was to happen at HH. And since TWOAIF even tells us that the idea that Rhaegar was behind HH was widely shared in Westeros, we can safely say that Rhaegar at least conspired with the Whents, especially since Oswell Whent was a key element in the organisation of the tournament, and also happened to be with Rhaegar when he abducted Lyanna.

When I say there is no textual evidence to support the claim that Rhaegar was conspiring to depose his father, I'm not saying that I don't believe Rhaegar intended to hold a secret meeting at HH. I'm saying there is no text that suggests the meeting ever took place, and Rhaegar ultimately never conspired to depose his father, and since the events unfolded the way they did, AND Rhaegar's last words to Jaime were that he meant to do something sooner, but didn't, suggests that he never made good on his intentions. That isn't twisting text. That's accepting what it says. What I think is happening is you're falling into the trap Aerys councilors created to keep Aerys suspicious of Rhaegar. They would continually whisper in his ear that Rhaegar was a threat, and conspiring to overthrow him, because they were afraid of what might happen if Rhaegar should ascend the throne and they were to lose their influence over the King and Kingdom. Aerys was a paranoid, delusional man, and his councilors played off that fear.

 

2 hours ago, Rippounet said:

The memory was still bitter. Old Lord Whent had announced the tourney shortly after a visit from his brother, Ser Oswell Whent of the Kingsguard. With Varys whispering in his ear, King Aerys became convinced that his son was conspiring to depose him, that Whent's tourney was but a ploy to give Rhaegar a pretext for meeting with as many great lords as could be brought together. Aerys had not set foot outside the Red Keep since Duskendale, yet suddenly he announced that he would accompany Prince Rhaegar to Harrenhal, and everything had gone awry from there.

Varys whispering in King Aerys ear...yet even still, Rhaegar planning a secret meeting to discuss what might be done, a meeting that never takes place, is a little different from Rhaegar actively conspiring to depose his father. But you mentioned there were others from the books, which are?

 

1 hour ago, Rippounet said:

Not from a quantitative point of view at least. I did a quick search on "a search of ice and fire" and there are slightly more quotes about Rhaegar as a political player than as a prophecy-obsessed one (just as there are more quotes of him of a musician or a jouster!).

I did a pretty thorough search on "a search of ice and fire", and the handful of quotes I saw as Rhaegar being a political player come from TWOIAF, where Aerys councilors are constantly feeding into Aerys paranoia, but it also says that had they gotten even a whiff of proof they would have used it to seek Rhaegar's downfall and disinheritance in favor of Viserys. Again, I support the idea that Rhaegar wanted to have a secret council at HH, but again, that never happened. We know this because Rhaegar tells Jaime this before he marches off to die. No where after HH is there any text that suggests that Rhaegar conspired against his father.

 

2 hours ago, Rippounet said:

we have many quotes about Rhaegar's wedding, which was highly political (which suggests that he could very well accomodate both political and prophecy-related reasons btw, since he came to see Elia as the mother of the PtwP).

His marriage wasn't a political move by Rhaegar, it was a political move by Aerys to insult Tywin, who wanted Rhaegar to marry Cersei. Rhaegar only saw Elia as the mother of the PTWP because, well, as his wife she would have his children.

 

2 hours ago, Rippounet said:

This is denying the obvious: the abduction actually had huge political repercussions.

I'm not denying the abduction had huge political repercussions, what I'm arguing is that the abduction wasn't politically motivated, ie. Rhaegar's abduction of Lyanna was not part of a plan to depose his father. I believe he was in love with her, and thought she was necessary for the fulfillment of a prophecy he had been pursuing, literally, his entire life. I believe Rhaegar was smart enough to know that some things were more important than the potential political fallout of his actions. Just as Jon Snow was smart enough to realize that some things were more important than the political fallout of allowing the wildlings south of the wall.

 

2 hours ago, Rippounet said:

I think many readers actually like the romantic notion that Rhaegar did forget about politics as far as Lyanna was concerned. They like to believe that Martin wrote a story in which Rhaegar and Lyanna are a romantic couple like Romeo and Juliet or Paris and Helen.

Because they are, lol, almost exactly like Romeo and Juliet. They fall in love, both their families are at war, and both die. Its a bittersweet theme, as GRRM has said on a number of occasions that is exactly what he was going for. Bittersweet.

[UnmaskedLurker]

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

That's my take on it - if some secret deal was indeed struck, it was solely between Rhaegar and Rickard.

 

I assume you mean other than Elia and Lyanna who you also seem to suggest would have been in on the "deal" -- right?

[Ygrain]

13 minutes ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

I assume you mean other than Elia and Lyanna who you also seem to suggest would have been in on the "deal" -- right?

Yes, I was referring to SBAT and Rickard's northern supporters.