R+L=J v.160

[Wayward Sand Star]

On 4/27/2016 at 8:59 PM, UnmaskedLurker said:

I think I will just have to settle for concluding that there are too many possibilities that could work and I think I probably will have to wait until GRRM tells us what really happened (assuming he ever will -- as Rhaegar's motives do not necessarily ever have to be revealed -- but I strongly suspect they will be). [my emphasis]

Just to voice a slight disagreement with the marked statement -- I have been following this recent discussion, not having much to add to either argumentation, yet I feel that my reservations might still be pertinent to the greater discussion. 

One of GRRM's pet themes in ASOIF has to do with his rather realistic stance on prophecies and myth/folklore/history/fact. That is to say, in ASOIF, at least, GRRM seems to ascribe to the notion that past events are always mediated to characters in the present, to one extent or another, by narrative. No two accounts of a single past events ever seem to fully correlate; 'facts' are usually regarded as such when details of different accounts do correlate. With the exception of the odd confession -- just off the top of my head (I'm in the process of re-reading the books, so my memory is supposedly fresh) -- I can't thing of a single instance in which we have been given all the objective facts about a past event.

So really, aside from GRRM really getting a kick out of using this notion as a literary device (I'm sure he has a particularly evil giggle every time he refers to a previously mentioned historic event, then adds a few new details we've never heard of), I feel that there is quite some textual justification to us never receiving all the facts about the events that transpired from the Harrenhal tourney to the battle at the Tower of Joy (especially not Rhaegar's real motivations). 

I hope I'm clear enough to understand.

 

[Rippounet]

8 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Because he called the Harrenhal tourney as a way to circumvent the STAB alliance grab for power and to offer himself as a peaceful candidate to resolve their concerns around his father's madness. The road not taken is indeed a council to replace Aerys. The STAB alliance spits in his face. They have no interest in replacing the father with the son, but want to do away with Targaryen rule.

Interesting theory, but you're assuming that STAB had "concerns about Aerys's madness" or that they "wanted to do away with Targaryen rule"  before Harrenhal when the text we have really suggests otherwise.

What comes closest to this is Lady Dustin's theory that STAB was suggested by Rickard's maester, and that perhaps the maesters wanted STAB to threaten Targaryen rule. Until Harrenhal however, no one in STAB seemed particularly concerned about Aerys.

[SFDanny]

4 hours ago, Rippounet said:

Interesting theory, but you're assuming that STAB had "concerns about Aerys's madness" or that they "wanted to do away with Targaryen rule"  before Harrenhal when the text we have really suggests otherwise.

What comes closest to this is Lady Dustin's theory that STAB was suggested by Rickard's maester, and that perhaps the maesters wanted STAB to threaten Targaryen rule. Until Harrenhal however, no one in STAB seemed particularly concerned about Aerys.

I would point out this text from The World of Ice and Fire:

Quote

"In each of these, Starks died. Yet the house continued with its fortunes mostly unchanged - likely because of the firm resolve of most Lords of Winterfell not to become embroiled in the intrigues of the southron court. When the Stark line was nearly obliterated by Mad King Aerys after Rhaegar's abduction of Lyanna, some misguided men laid the blame at the feet of the late Lord Rickard, whose alliances by blood and friendship tied the great houses together and ensured that they would act together in response to the Mad King's crimes." (TWoI&F 141-142)

The interesting thing here is both what the author reveals and what he tries to hide. Remembering he is writing for Robert and his "sons", so it is not surprising that the maester blames Aerys. What is surprising and most illuminating is that in his defense of Lord Rickard he admits that the alliance's purpose is directed against Aerys - "whose alliances by blood and friendship tied the great houses together and ensured that they would act together in response to the Mad King's crimes." Of course, what is also obvious is that it is not possible it is Aery's "crimes" that the alliances are built in response to simply because the crimes come long after the alliance ties are pledged. Clearly the maester lets something slip about the target of Rickard's alliances while trying to paint them in the best possible light for his audience. One doesn't tell Robert he joined a treasonous alliance through his betrothal to Lyanna long before Rhaegar or Aerys did anything to dear cousin Robert. Or at least one doesn't tell him so and expect to keep his head.

Yandel's unnamed "misguided men" have the truth of it, I think. Any study of these ties points to them being unique in the history of the Targaryen reign. The STAB alliance is formed in opposition to Aerys's rule, and they show Rhaegar at Harrenhal their opposition is not just to his father, but to all Targaryens.

And, yes, I think the maesters and their interests are very much part of the formation of the STAB alliance. Not just because of Lady Dustin's words, but because her words are supported by Marwyn's views of the aims of the maester's conspiracy. 

Quote

"Who do you think killed all the dragons the last time around? Gallant dragons slayers armed with swords?" He spat. "The world the Citadel is building has no place in it for sorcery or prophecy or glass candles, much less for dragons." (AFfC 683)

Winterfell's Maester Walys's description by Lady Dustin does indeed fit Marwyn's view of the Citadel's aims. So too does the thoughts and actions of old Maester Cressen as he goes about trying to murder someone he thinks is seducing his lord with tales of magic, fire, prophecy, and dragons. That makes two of the four Maesters of the STAB alliance as likely foes of the Targaryens. I wish we had more on Riverrun's Maester Kym and whoever was Jon Arryn's maester in the Vale.

[nanother]

12 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Leave for a few weeks and all kinds of interesting posts appear!

Let me weigh in on Rhaegar and his political motives at Harrenhal. I think what we have in his crowning of Lyanna is primarily a political act. It is a statement to the realm that the Crown Prince claims an interest in Lyanna. Not a statement he wants her romantically, though that may be developing too. It is a statement to the STAB alliance that he disapproves of their proposed alliances and that he stands with his father against attempts to remove the Targaryen dynasty from power. Why does he do this?

Because he called the Harrenhal tourney as a way to circumvent the STAB alliance grab for power and to offer himself as a peaceful candidate to resolve their concerns around his father's madness. The road not taken is indeed a council to replace Aerys. The STAB alliance spits in his face. They have no interest in replacing the father with the son, but want to do away with Targaryen rule. This comes to a head with the dishonoring of the Lady Ashara, lady-in-waiting to the Prince's wife and sister to his best friend. The best candidate for this act is the heir to the North himself. It looks like Brandon sleeps with Ashara with no intention of ending his impending marriage to Catelyn. He treats her, along with her close relationship to Rhaegar and Elia, as unworthy of respect. If I'm right, I'm pretty sure Brandon had every understanding of what were the political consequences of his actions.

Rhaegar's response is to say I will support my father rather than allow this web of alliances to come into being and this new power replace the Targaryen's rule. He is not being stupid in rejecting the people he needs for a successful council replacing Aerys. He is recognizing the political reality that the STAB alliance has gone too far in its ambitions and can never be part of his proposal. He has very little choice other than to stand with Aerys. But how he does it is perhaps the most interesting part. He does it by "honoring" Lyanna. Just as Aerys did on the first day of the tourney by "honoring" Jaime with his selection to the Kingsguard. Both of these acts are pointed not only at sending a lesson to High Lords the Targaryens see as disloyal, but also at the alliance in particular. Rhaegar proclaims his interest in Lyanna who is to be married to Robert, and Aerys takes away Jaime's ability to marry Lysa and thereby expand the STAB alliance to include the Lannisters. So, we see in the course of the tourney, the swing of the political fortunes of Westeros. Rhaegar offers a hand of peace and unity in replacing his father, and it is slapped away.

Anyway, my thoughts on the subject in a nutshell. One of these days I will finish an essay on the subject, but life keeps getting in the way.

Interesting theory, but how much evidence is there for STAB being so determined to get rid of all Targaryens for good, prior to Harrenhal? Apart from vague mentions of a Citadel Conspiracy Theory?

Baratheons: Robert is a distant relative and a pretty relaxed guy with no apparent grudge of his own against Rhaegar prior to the Lyanna debacle. His father died in the service of Aerys/Rhaegar (which could be cause for bitterness, but there's no mention of anyone, apart from Aerys himself, ever suggesting it was anything but a very unfortunate accident). Indeed, Stannis remarks that it was a tough decision for him to choose between loyalty to the crown and loyalty to his brother, so there's little to indicate that the Baratheon family was anti-Targaryen. Robert likely had no clue that he's part of a conspiracy, although I'll grant you that his ties to Jon Arryn, Lyanna and Ned might have been too tight to disentangle him from the group.

Starks: apart from Ned's mysterious comment about wanting to stop the murder of children, I don't recall any obvious reason for them to be so vehemently anti-Targaryen, either in the main books or in TWoIaF. There's Lady Barbrey's comment about the Starks' maester, so I suppose it's possible that he somehow convinced Rickard that Targs need to go altogether, but again, I don' recall anything substantial to suggest so.

Arryns: Complete blank. Do we know anything about Jon Arryn's possible motives at all?

Tullys: Lord Hoster seems to have reached out to other houses from all over Westeros - his quarrel with the Blackfish was about some Redwyne girl, he was negotiatig with the Lannisters, and who knows who else. Again, I don't see anything to suggest that he was working towards getting rid of all Targaryens.

Then we have the Lannisters - IIRC it was Rhaegar who helped convice Aerys to turn to Tywin, who very nearly joined the STAB, and the way he was prevented from doing so might have been disguised as an honor, but Rhaegar would have known for the insult it really was. So, if Rhaegar thought of STAB as a threat to himself, then he should have thought of Tywin as an almost certain threat.

Also, let's say this alliance was indeed determined to end the entire Targaryen line. That means the great lords  of 5 of the 7 kingdoms were conspiring against the royal family. Is the best way to disrupt such an alliance to insult them in a way that only gives them more reason to band together? Granted, the bannermen might not follow them in their rebellion (in fact, we saw that some didn't), but it still seems too delicate a situation to solve with barely disguised insults. And where was that hand of peace being offered, exactly? The fact that he arranged for a tournanment? How? Sorry, I'm not being intentionally dense, I'd just like to understand how you think this was supposed to work. And after spending several days in the same goddamn castle, did Rhaegar and the Starks really not find a more discreet and efficient (and honourable) way to 'send messages' than dishonouring or publicly "honouring" maidens (with all the more or less predictable negative side effects of publicity, like increasing daddy's paranoia, or scandalising anyone who might have exxpected him to stick to social norms and crown his own wife)? Were one or both sides intentionally trying to provoke a war?

To be clear, I desperately hope that all this will turn out to be politically sensible somehow, or at least not completely idiotic, but I have trouble seeing how this particular line of reasoning would work. Or any other line of reasoning that I've seen suggested so far. We need a "pulling hair out" emoticon.

[SFDanny]

nanother, the main evidence, though not the only evidence, for this theory is the unique nature of the STAB alliance in Targaryen history. There are instances of marriages between the Great Houses in the 280 plus years of Targaryen rule, but they are few and far between. There are some marriages between the Great Houses the Targaryens themselves arrange/force early on in their rule. We know that is not the case with the STAB alliance. In fact, the two actions cited above show hostility by the Targaryens to the proposed marriages between these Great Houses.

So, what purpose is there for this web of alliances to come into being between the Starks-Tullys-Arryns-and the Baratheons? We are clear that most of the marriages of members of the Great Houses are with their own vassal houses, including cousins. This type of marriage strengthens the ties of the vassal to the Great House and reinforces the oaths of fealty between them. There is a very easy and understandable reason for this - in time of war the Great House can call on his bannermen for troops to fight, in time of famine crops can be shared, and taxes go to enrich the Great House providing monies for its wants and needs. None of this applies to the marriages of the STAB alliance. There is no oath of fealty. So why are they spending so much of their "marriage coins" in building this alliance? Because there is an outside enemy they want to bind the Great Houses together in opposition against.

There is really only one other example given to us that fits what the STAB alliance is doing. That is the marriage alliances during the War of the Five Kings. It is a simple fact these marriages are done to bring about alliances to enable certain people to sit the Iron Throne. We see it happen all laid out in our story as Renly marries Margaery in order for the joint might of the Stormlands and the Reach can put him on the throne. We see it happen in Tyrion's diplomacy to Dorne and Myrcella's betrothal to Trystane, and in his overture to the Tyrells fallowing Renly's death. We see it in Tywin's move to force the marriage between Tyrion and Sansa. What we have is a textbook on how marriage alliances between Great Houses are used to secure the throne and strengthen the power to hold on to it.What then is this web of alliances between the STAB alliance if not aimed at the Targaryens?

We know it is not a series of accidental love matches that just happened to occur during the same time period. The only person who really professes love amongst the parties involved is Robert's "love" for Lyanna. Lyanna shows no love for him. Brandon and Catelyn are to be married but no love is involved. The same is true with the proposed marriage of Lysa to Jaime, and the Blackfish to Bethany Redwyne, And of course the foster relationships are not ones of romantic love either, though they build strong bonds between the Houses.

Here let me note that we know next to nothing about possible matches among some family members of the Great Houses. We don't know if Elbert Arryn was ever married or if there was even an attempt to arrange one. Yet when Brandon rides to his death at King's Landing Elbert rides with him. There is obviously a tie between the men for Elbert to follow Brandon. Is it a foster brother relationship? Was it not just Ned going to the Vale, but also Elbert going north? Plans for Benjen, Ned, Edmure, and Cersei are likewise unknown at this time. The point being the STAB web of alliance could have well been developed even further.

Then we have to place the STAB alliance into its specific time and place. Almost 130 some years after the last dragon died. After the War of the Ninepenny Kings in which there is a opportunity for the Great Houses to form bonds of friendship and battle between their members independent of the Targaryen court. Is it a really so hard to understand the growth of independent feelings among the Great Houses when we combine these factors with a weak, and later mad Targaryen king? I think not.

What is it that the Great Jon shouts?

Quote

"MY LORDS!" he shouted, his voice booming off the rafters. "Here is what I say to these two kings!" He spat. "Renly Baratheon is nothing to me, nor Stannis neither. Why should they rule over me and mine, from some flowery seat in Highgarden or Dorne? What do they know of the Wall or the wolfswood or the barrow of the First Men? Even their gods are wrong. The Others take the Lannisters too, I've a bellyful of them." He reached back over his shoulder and drew his immense two-handed greatsword. "Why shouldn't we rule ourselves again? It was the dragons we married, and the dragons are all dead!" He pointed at Robb with the blade. "There sits the only king I mean to bow my knee to, m'lords," he thundered. "The King in the North!" (AGoT 665) bold emphasis added

It has been my belief for a long time that what we have is not an alliance to replace the Targaryens with one of the members of the STAB alliance, but to build an alliance that can renounce Targaryen overlordship over the old seven kingdoms with the power to stop the Targaryens and their allies from doing anything about it. To resurrect the Kingdom of the North, the Vale Kings, the Storm Kings, the River Kings, etc. Which is why there is no agreement by the rebels until around the time of the Trident who will take the Iron Throne if they win. The long simmering resentment of the rule from King's Landing which we see boil over in Great Jon Umber's speech is likely present, to one degree or another throughout Westeros. To use that to bring about a new Kingdom in the North is Lord Rickard's Southron Ambition.

To this we add things like Yandel's quote. What do we get. We get a lot of evidence pointing to the STAB alliance being pointed at ending Targaryen rule.This is the context Harrenhal takes place in. A failed attempt by Rhaegar to win the STAB alliance to his idea of replacing his father. Exhibited in the treatment of Ashara by Brandon, I believe. Given that background, Rhaegar's political response stating his opposition to the Lyanna-Robert marriage by the symbolism of honoring her as his queen of love and beauty now makes sense, as opposed to the portrayal of him as a lovestruck idiot unaware of the politics he lives and breathes every day of his life.

[Black Crow]

4 hours ago, nanother said:

Arryns: Complete blank. Do we know anything about Jon Arryn's possible motives at all?

The Blessed St.Jon of Arryn did end up as the de facto ruler of the Kingdoms while his liege lord danced wenched and sang... after having fostered the Stark and Baratheon boys under his roof.

[Bael's Bastard]

I don't think the quote from TWOIAF states or necessarily implies that the purpose of the blood and friendship ties was anti-Targaryen, just that when things went down as they did at the hands of the Targs, the ties ensured the tied acted together. The ties made with Jon, Ned, and Robert were long before Aerys would have been on their radars as a problem. Only in hindsight can this be said to have protected Ned and Robert from Aerys, out of the love Jon developed for them. The betrothals are in a bit of a vague area. The Brandon/Cat one seems like it could be before, during, or after the Defiance. Lyanna/Robert appears to have been pre-Harrenhal. While the lords would have been aware about the Defiance, it was still an act against houses which physically kidnapped and threatened to kill the king, not random madness. Only the marriages between Ned and Jon and the Tully sisters months into the war, after Rickard was already dead, really seem to have been intentionally intended against the Targs.

[UnViserion]

8 hours ago, SFDanny said:

nanother, the main evidence, though not the only evidence, for this theory is the unique nature of the STAB alliance in Targaryen history. There are instances of marriages between the Great Houses in the 280 plus years of Targaryen rule, but they are few and far between. There are some marriages between the Great Houses the Targaryens themselves arrange/force early on in their rule. We know that is not the case with the STAB alliance. In fact, the two actions cited above show hostility by the Targaryens to the proposed marriages between these Great Houses.

So, what purpose is there for this web of alliances to come into being between the Starks-Tullys-Arryns-and the Baratheons? We are clear that most of the marriages of members of the Great Houses are with their own vassal houses, including cousins. This type of marriage strengthens the ties of the vassal to the Great House and reinforces the oaths of fealty between them. There is a very easy and understandable reason for this - in time of war the Great House can call on his bannermen for troops to fight, in time of famine crops can be shared, and taxes go to enrich the Great House providing monies for its wants and needs. None of this applies to the marriages of the STAB alliance. There is no oath of fealty. So why are they spending so much of their "marriage coins" in building this alliance? Because there is an outside enemy they want to bind the Great Houses together in opposition against.

There is really only one other example given to us that fits what the STAB alliance is doing. That is the marriage alliances during the War of the Five Kings. It is a simple fact these marriages are done to bring about alliances to enable certain people to sit the Iron Throne. We see it happen all laid out in our story as Renly marries Margaery in order for the joint might of the Stormlands and the Reach can put him on the throne. We see it happen in Tyrion's diplomacy to Dorne and Myrcella's betrothal to Trystane, and in his overture to the Tyrells fallowing Renly's death. We see it in Tywin's move to force the marriage between Tyrion and Sansa. What we have is a textbook on how marriage alliances between Great Houses are used to secure the throne and strengthen the power to hold on to it.What then is this web of alliances between the STAB alliance if not aimed at the Targaryens?

We know it is not a series of accidental love matches that just happened to occur during the same time period. The only person who really professes love amongst the parties involved is Robert's "love" for Lyanna. Lyanna shows no love for him. Brandon and Catelyn are to be married but no love is involved. The same is true with the proposed marriage of Lysa to Jaime, and the Blackfish to Bethany Redwyne, And of course the foster relationships are not ones of romantic love either, though they build strong bonds between the Houses.

Here let me note that we know next to nothing about possible matches among some family members of the Great Houses. We don't know if Elbert Arryn was ever married or if there was even an attempt to arrange one. Yet when Brandon rides to his death at King's Landing Elbert rides with him. There is obviously a tie between the men for Elbert to follow Brandon. Is it a foster brother relationship? Was it not just Ned going to the Vale, but also Elbert going north? Plans for Benjen, Ned, Edmure, and Cersei are likewise unknown at this time. The point being the STAB web of alliance could have well been developed even further.

Then we have to place the STAB alliance into its specific time and place. Almost 130 some years after the last dragon died. After the War of the Ninepenny Kings in which there is a opportunity for the Great Houses to form bonds of friendship and battle between their members independent of the Targaryen court. Is it a really so hard to understand the growth of independent feelings among the Great Houses when we combine these factors with a weak, and later mad Targaryen king? I think not.

What is it that the Great Jon shouts?

It has been my belief for a long time that what we have is not an alliance to replace the Targaryens with one of the members of the STAB alliance, but to build an alliance that can renounce Targaryen overlordship over the old seven kingdoms with the power to stop the Targaryens and their allies from doing anything about it. To resurrect the Kingdom of the North, the Vale Kings, the Storm Kings, the River Kings, etc. Which is why there is no agreement by the rebels until around the time of the Trident who will take the Iron Throne if they win. The long simmering resentment of the rule from King's Landing which we see boil over in Great Jon Umber's speech is likely present, to one degree or another throughout Westeros. To use that to bring about a new Kingdom in the North is Lord Rickard's Southron Ambition.

To this we add things like Yandel's quote. What do we get. We get a lot of evidence pointing to the STAB alliance being pointed at ending Targaryen rule.This is the context Harrenhal takes place in. A failed attempt by Rhaegar to win the STAB alliance to his idea of replacing his father. Exhibited in the treatment of Ashara by Brandon, I believe. Given that background, Rhaegar's political response stating his opposition to the Lyanna-Robert marriage by the symbolism of honoring her as his queen of love and beauty now makes sense, as opposed to the portrayal of him as a lovestruck idiot unaware of the politics he lives and breathes every day of his life.

 

Good post. Sometimes its like people just forget that the 7 Kingdoms were once individual kingdoms. If they could elevate their title from Warden of the ______ to King of the _____, why wouldn't they? 

[nanother]

20 hours ago, Black Crow said:

The Blessed St.Jon of Arryn did end up as the de facto ruler of the Kingdoms while his liege lord danced wenched and sang... after having fostered the Stark and Baratheon boys under his roof.

Hahaha, indeed. But for that to work as the motivation, he'd have needed to be more confident in the viability of such a plan than he had any right to be when he started fostering Robert ans Ned. It does look like a power grab on his part, but I'd find it easier to believe that it was initially going to be a power grab within the Targaryen framework.

 

@SFDanny, will have to chew on that a little before responding ...

[SFDanny]

14 hours ago, Rhaegar the Unworthy said:

 

Good post. Sometimes its like people just forget that the 7 Kingdoms were once individual kingdoms. If they could elevate their title from Warden of the ______ to King of the _____, why wouldn't they? 

Indeed. I would also point out that one has to consider what exactly the STAB alliance had to offer the Lannisters that got them so close to a Jaime-Lysa marriage? Can anyone imagine it included Tywin accepting Rickard as his new King? I don't think so. Offering him a chance to be the new King of the Rock is another thing altogether. Complete with an opportunity to put Aerys and the Targaryens on their collective asses. That just might bring Tywin into the alliance.

7 minutes ago, nanother said:

@SFDanny, will have to chew on that a little before responding ...

That is entirely reasonable. Sorry for the overload. I will try to finish the aforementioned essay and post it for discussion. 

[Black Crow]

22 minutes ago, nanother said:

Hahaha, indeed. But for that to work as the motivation, he'd have needed to be more confident in the viability of such a plan than he had any right to be when he started fostering Robert ans Ned. It does look like a power grab on his part, but I'd find it easier to believe that it was initially going to be a power grab within the Targaryen framework.

Power might not have been his primary motivation at the outset, but it does suggest that the alliance was set in train long before Harrenhal and the the Blessed St. Jon of Arryn was a player right from the beginning.

[Ser Leftwich]

Generic question about the STAB alliance theory: How did it include Steffon or not? Did it grow after Steffon died?

[nanother]

The SAB part was clearly in the works before Steffon died ... Ned was, what 8, or 10 when he was sent off to the Vale? Steffon's death was much later than that IIRC.

ETA: the marriage pacts might have come around the same time, or later. IIRC Robert was already Lord of Storm's End at the time of Lya's btrothal, so that would have been after his father's death.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

1 hour ago, nanother said:

The SAB part was clearly in the works before Steffon died ... Ned was, what 8, or 10 when he was sent off to the Vale? Steffon's death was much later than that IIRC.

ETA: the marriage pacts might have come around the same time, or later. IIRC Robert was already Lord of Storm's End at the time of Lya's btrothal, so that would have been after his father's death.

Ned was 8 when he went to the Eyrie, and with his birth in 263 AC, that would have mean he left for the Eyrie in 271/272 AC. Catelyn was 12 when betrothed to Brandon, and with her birth in either 264 or 265 AC, that would place this event a few years later (276/277/278 AC).

Lyanna's betrothal to Robert came after the birth of his bastard daughter Mya (b. 279/280 AC), but "long" before the tourney at Harrenhal (281 AC).

[SFDanny]

20 hours ago, Ser Leftwich said:

Generic question about the STAB alliance theory: How did it include Steffon or not? Did it grow after Steffon died?

 

20 hours ago, nanother said:

The SAB part was clearly in the works before Steffon died ... Ned was, what 8, or 10 when he was sent off to the Vale? Steffon's death was much later than that IIRC.

ETA: the marriage pacts might have come around the same time, or later. IIRC Robert was already Lord of Storm's End at the time of Lya's btrothal, so that would have been after his father's death.

 

18 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Ned was 8 when he went to the Eyrie, and with his birth in 263 AC, that would have mean he left for the Eyrie in 271/272 AC. Catelyn was 12 when betrothed to Brandon, and with her birth in either 264 or 265 AC, that would place this event a few years later (276/277/278 AC).

Lyanna's betrothal to Robert came after the birth of his bastard daughter Mya (b. 279/280 AC), but "long" before the tourney at Harrenhal (281 AC).

The question about Steffon's role is a very good one, but the answer, I think, is unknowable at this point. Steffon died in 278, a year after Duskendale. So he was alive for the early parts of the building of alliances. When does Robert go to the Vale? We don't know, we only know he is in the Vale to father Mya in the timeframe RT shows. It could be Robert is sent there after his parents deaths, but I would guess it more likely he goes there earlier. Either way, I'm very, very interested concerning Maester Cressen's role in this arrangement. What we do know is that Steffon had no role during the time of Lyanna's and Robert's betrothal. He is dead by that time.

Assuming Steffon had a role in building the STAB alliance in the early days, I think it is safe to say he kept it secret. This is, after all, known as Lord Rickard's plan, as shown by the Yandel quote. I think it would also be highly unlikely that Aerys sends his cousin to find Rhaegar a bride, if he thinks Steffon is part of a conspiracy to betray him.

But think of this from the Targaryen point of view for a moment. Is there something a bit odd about Jon Arryn fostering two children of different High Lords? Probably, but this alone is not enough make one think it is proof of a nefarious plot. When the Iron Throne finds out about the betrothal of the heir of Winterfell to the eldest daughter of Riverrun, then alarms had to go off. Certainly when the young lord of Storm's End is betrothed to the daughter of Winterfell, those alarms had to reach deafening levels. Especially because Steffon is dead. The High Lord to which the Crown had the strongest ties by blood and friendship has just joined himself to a growing power bloc outside Aerys's control.

 

[nanother]

21 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Indeed. I would also point out that one has to consider what exactly the STAB alliance had to offer the Lannisters that got them so close to a Jaime-Lysa marriage? Can anyone imagine it included Tywin accepting Rickard as his new King? I don't think so. Offering him a chance to be the new King of the Rock is another thing altogether. Complete with an opportunity to put Aerys and the Targaryens on their collective asses. That just might bring Tywin into the alliance.

That is entirely reasonable. Sorry for the overload. I will try to finish the aforementioned essay and post it for discussion. 

Looking forward to the essay. I might save any in-depth comments for the new thread, then - in light of the previous quarrels about what is or isn't on-topic here, I worry that delving into details would qualify as derailing the thread. For now, I'll just say that musch of what you say is solid evidence that the Great Houses were trying to strengthen their position relative to the Iron Throne (but then that never was in question, I think). However, that can mean anything from wanting to be able to put more pressure on the King, through deposing the current king, should the need arise, or even getting rid of the entire ruling family, all the way to breaking up the Seven Kingdoms altogether. And the Iron Throne would not like any of this, of course, especially the far end of the spectrum.

The evidence for it being on the far end of the spectrum seems rather weak to me (I'm still processing the info, though), but the last few pages of this thread show that there's a great variety of potential motivations and constraints that might have been at play, and even though each suggested scenario has its problems, there's a good reason to think that there'll eventually be a combiation that really works.

---

For general STAB speculation, I did some (superficial) digging in the books for a timeline (ETA: also used the info provided by @Rhaenys_Targaryen above), here's what I have so far:

271-ish: Ned is sent to the Vale to be fostered with Jon Arryn; not sure we know when Robert was sent there, likely around the same time

276/77-ish: Cat is promised to Brandon

277: Duskendale - another rather puzzling event. One isolated house thinking it a good idea to take their King as hostage, or was some sort of conspiracy already in progress? Anyhow, TWoIaF would lead us to believe that, while he was already showing signs of instability before, Aerys's madness only started to get really out ofhand after this

Around the same time, the Jaime-Lysa match is already being set up: at 11, Jaime is sent to squire for Sumner Crakehall, who sends him to Riverrun on the pretext of delivering a letter, and Lord Hoster keeps seating him next to Lysa at dinners. I'm not sure when this was (there are references to other character's ages, so might be possible to figure out), but Cat was already promised to Brandon.

278: Steffon Baratheon's quest for a bride for Rhaegar, and death

279/280-ish: Robert and Lyanna's betrothal

280/281-ish: Jaime's knighting, wedding arrangements with Lysa nearly finalised, but not in time to stop Aerys from snatching Jaime away.  Tywin offers Tyrion instead, but Hoster declines. Harrenhal.

282: abduction, Brandon dies, Ned takes his place (implying that there were no other arrangements for him, or only in very early stages of negotiation), Lysa-Jon match to secure Tully support (at least Cat thinks that was what clenched it)

[MtnLion]

21 minutes ago, nanother said:

276/77-ish: Cat is promised to Brandon

Maybe, maybe not.  It seems that when the betrothal is announced, Baelish challenges, and Brandon travels to Riverrun to answer the challenge.  That would be 282, as within a fortnight-ish, Brandon charges off to King's Landing.  Perhaps the promise is made, but the actual betrothal is delayed. 

[SFDanny]

21 minutes ago, MtnLion said:

Maybe, maybe not.  It seems that when the betrothal is announced, Baelish challenges, and Brandon travels to Riverrun to answer the challenge.  That would be 282, as within a fortnight-ish, Brandon charges off to King's Landing.  Perhaps the promise is made, but the actual betrothal is delayed. 

The betrothal is the promise. It's the same thing. We are told Catelyn is twelve when her father tells her of her marriage pact. This places this part of the STAB alliance well before any of the crimes we know of committed by Aerys against the Starks, the Baratheons, the Arryns, or Tullys.

[Jaehaerys Targaryen]

As I read the ideas and the opinions about the true heir of Aerys II Targaryen I am disturbed because of the fact that  many fans  truly believe that Jon if he is truly a Targaryen stands a chance to inherit the Iron Throne of the Conqueror. It is totally insane to think  that the great and the lesser Houses of Westeros will accept Jon as king . With what evidence of royal blood ?? Even if Bran's visions in the show speak the truth about the tower of joy who will believe him or whatever evidence is brought forward ? Many years have passed and the general truth is that Rhaegar and his heirs are dead. It is also said that Aerys himself nearly disowned Rhaegar (if it isn't fact). Westeros has already many pretenders, do you think that the lords will support someone who was thought to be the bastard of Ned ?? What can be accepted as truth is that Viserys was Aerys living and acknowledged heir after the death of Rhaegar and his children and now Daenerys holds the most legal claim through blood as well as power some might say. As for the theory that all believe in( as well as I), I think that it has enough merit though without substantial evidence to support a claim. He only stands a chance if he is married to someone with the power to do so. Satnnis himself told Jon the same thing  in the books.

 

I would like to hear your opinions. 

[Ser Leftwich]

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

 

 

The question about Steffon's role is a very good one, but the answer, I think, is unknowable at this point. Steffon died in 278, a year after Duskendale. So he was alive for the early parts of the building of alliances. When does Robert go to the Vale? We don't know, we only know he is in the Vale to father Mya in the timeframe RT shows. It could be Robert is sent there after his parents deaths, but I would guess it more likely he goes there earlier. Either way, I'm very, very interested concerning Maester Cressen's role in this arrangement. What we do know is that Steffon had no role during the time of Lyanna's and Robert's betrothal. He is dead by that time.

Assuming Steffon had a role in building the STAB alliance in the early days, I think it is safe to say he kept it secret. This is, after all, known as Lord Rickard's plan, as shown by the Yandel quote. I think it would also be highly unlikely that Aerys sends his cousin to find Rhaegar a bride, if he thinks Steffon is part of a conspiracy to betray him.

But think of this from the Targaryen point of view for a moment. Is there something a bit odd about Jon Arryn fostering two children of different High Lords? Probably, but this alone is not enough make one think it is proof of a nefarious plot. When the Iron Throne finds out about the betrothal of the heir of Winterfell to the eldest daughter of Riverrun, then alarms had to go off. Certainly when the young lord of Storm's End is betrothed to the daughter of Winterfell, those alarms had to reach deafening levels. Especially because Steffon is dead. The High Lord to which the Crown had the strongest ties by blood and friendship has just joined himself to a growing power bloc outside Aerys's control.

 

Agree that the unknowable aspects could make or break all of this.

Two thoughts about Steffon:

1) He became a Lord at a very young age, 14-15, which ends up happening to Robert, too. Fostering his eldest with an older and more experienced lord in Jon Arryn makes a whole lot of sense. Steffon maybe did not get the kinds of lessons he would have wanted as a fosteree and wanted better for his son, Robert.

2) What would be in STAB or SAB for Steffon? He is the cousin of the king, childhood friends with the king and current Hand, and his father was Hand. Other than fostering Robert with Jon, which seems sensible (outlined above), nothing Steffon does seems in opposition to Aerys, granted we don't really know anything he does between 260-278.