R+L=J v.160

[J. Stargaryen]

At least in my experience, considering alternatives is a big part of what convinced me that RLJ is correct. I have a feeling I am not alone in that regard. For example, personally speaking here, I thought those Heresy essays demonstrated just how desperate alternative cases are.

[Black Crow]

 

2 hours ago, J. Stargaryen said:

At least in my experience, considering alternatives is a big part of what convinced me that RLJ is correct. I have a feeling I am not alone in that regard. For example, personally speaking here, I thought those Heresy essays demonstrated just how desperate alternative cases are.

I'd tend to agree up to the point that some alternatives are less desperate than others and that Wolfmaid [wherever she has gone] did a useful job in organising a set of essays to look at specific alternatives.

On the whole, while still keeping an open mind, I do agree that R+L=J is the most likely answer, but at the same time think that the outcome is far less certain.

[MtnLion]

10 hours ago, Ygrain said:

I think we might consider ourselves forewarned. I think it would be only fair to issue a similar warning for the other side, who will also get a gutpunch when RLJ is confirmed.

We know better, the other side will continue with denial, since no source is 100% reliable in the books.  Just look at what BC says.   

[Black Crow]

Depends how you define denial.

I have agreed for some time that R+L=J is the most likely of the theories as to Jon's parentage - and that the essays exposed the hollowness of most of the alternatives. My point was and still remains that the outcome of the eventual revelation remains open to speculation.

[UnmaskedLurker]

4 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

Depends how you define denial.

I have agreed for some time that R+L=J is the most likely of the theories as to Jon's parentage - and that the essays exposed the hollowness of most of the alternatives. My point was and still remains that the outcome of the eventual revelation remains open to speculation.

I am not sure I get your point. If you are saying that the manner in which RLJ is revealed and the impact of this reveal is not entirely clear and subject to speculation -- I agree. That observation is not particularly controversial and I am not sure I have ever seen anyone on this board argue otherwise. On the other hand, above you seemed to suggest that there is some reasonable possibility that RLJ is not correct. While of course, given that GRRM can write whatever he wants to write, such an observation is suspect. There is some possibility that RLJ is not correct, but the evidence in favor of RLJ is so overwhelming that the likelihood appears to me to be rather remote.

So either you are making a completely non-controversial and almost universally accepted proposition or you are making an assessment that seems to be inconsistent with the evidence and likely to be proven incorrect. If your actual intent is a third meaning, please clarify.

[Black Crow]

I was responding to Mountain Lion's comment: "Just look at what BC says.  "

I am in no doubt that Jon is the son of Lyanna Stark, and while open to the possibility that his father may not be Rhaegar, I agree that R+L=J is most likely. However while I'm indifferent as to the manner of the revelation and regard some of the suggested scenarios as rather hopeful fan-fiction, I think that the revelation lends itself to a number of different outcomes - which is a very long way removed from "denying" R+L=J 

[Tom Cruise]

Is there anything out there that definitively  says that Aerys (the mad king) is NOT Jon's father?  Could he have raped Lyanna at some point?  I've read a lot of time line stuff about how this can't happen, but personally I don't see it from the information provided in the books.  I don't think we can assume this was impossible, but please correct me if I'm wrong.

I keep thinking about the three best knights of the kingsguard at the tower of joy.  Why would kings guards protect the child of Rheagar?  Especially while the king is still alive?  Wouldn't they be protecting the King's heir?  At this point Rheagar is dead, and if it was truely the Targaryan heir in the Tower of Joy, then it must be the child of Aerys.  Else, Viserys would be heir.

Thanks

Maverick

[UnmaskedLurker]

5 minutes ago, Tom Cruise said:

Is there anything out there that definitively  says that Aerys (the mad king) is NOT Jon's father?  Could he have raped Lyanna at some point?  I've read a lot of time line stuff about how this can't happen, but personally I don't see it from the information provided in the books.  I don't think we can assume this was impossible, but please correct me if I'm wrong.

I keep thinking about the three best knights of the kingsguard at the tower of joy.  Why would kings guards protect the child of Rheagar?  Especially while the king is still alive?  Wouldn't they be protecting the King's heir?  At this point Rheagar is dead, and if it was truely the Targaryan heir in the Tower of Joy, then it must be the child of Aerys.  Else, Viserys would be heir.

Thanks

Maverick

If Jon had been son of Aerys, then Viserys would be the heir under any scenario as Viserys would be the older son of Aerys compared to Jon. Jon is heir only if he is son of Rhaegar, Lyanna and Rhaegar were married, and "normal" Targ inheritance rules apply. Under these "normal" rules, the son of the older son of the King (even if the older son dies before the King), in this case Jon, would be ahead of the younger son of the King, in this case Viserys. But if Jon is the son of Aerys, then under no scenario could Jon be ahead of Veserys in the line to the throne.

Only the supposed "naming" of Viserys as heir by Aerys, as suggested in WOIAF, puts this analysis into question. But I think it reasonable to conclude that the 3 KG at ToJ learned of the deaths of Rhaegar, Aerys and Aegon, but not the naming of Viserys as heir.

Oh, and Lyanna was in hiding at the time of conception, presumably at ToJ or some other remote location. Aerys most likely was at KL the entire time. So while the readers don't have definitive reports of their locations at all relevant times, it seems logistically quite difficult.

[Tom Cruise]

Thanks UnmaskedLurker!  All of that makes sense.  I'm not sure why I forgot about Visery's already being the eldest.  

 

On a side note - I also buy into R+L=J, but desperately want to be proven wrong. 

[Ygrain]

1 hour ago, Black Crow said:

My point was and still remains that the outcome of the eventual revelation remains open to speculation.

Well, I am sure that you will be able to pat your shoulder with this one. None of the hardcore RLJers ever expected Jon to sit the throne and rule happily every after.

5 minutes ago, Tom Cruise said:

Is there anything out there that definitively  says that Aerys (the mad king) is NOT Jon's father?  Could he have raped Lyanna at some point?  I've read a lot of time line stuff about how this can't happen, but personally I don't see it from the information provided in the books.  I don't think we can assume this was impossible, but please correct me if I'm wrong.

I keep thinking about the three best knights of the kingsguard at the tower of joy.  Why would kings guards protect the child of Rheagar?  Especially while the king is still alive?  Wouldn't they be protecting the King's heir?  At this point Rheagar is dead, and if it was truely the Targaryan heir in the Tower of Joy, then it must be the child of Aerys.  Else, Viserys would be heir.

Thanks

Maverick

Well... for the starters, we have zero information about him and Lyanna ever meeting face to face. The only known time when they might have interacted was the HH tourney but that was months before Lyanna's disappearance (we know that Aerys never left the Red Keep in his final years with the exception of the HH tourney and Lyanna was never in KL), so she would have been visibly preggers even before the start of the Rebellion and her child born some time into it, which would make it impossible for Ned to 1) find her "in her bed of blood" aka childbirth after the Rebellion which lasted for about a year, and 2) pass Jon off as younger than Robb who was only conceived a couple of months into the Rebellion.

As for the Kingsguard at he ToJ... GRRM made it clear that Rhaegar was entitled to give them orders. At the time when Rhaegar was leaving ToJ, the king still had four more KG for his protection, so Dayne, Whent and Hightower's presence wasn't strictly necessary, and Team Obey claim that they simply kept following Rhaegar's orders to guard Lyanna and her child no matter what. Team Protect claim that they initially followed Rhaegar's orders but after the Sack, when Viserys became Aerys's heir regardless if he had named him one after Rhaegar's death, they stayed at ToJ because there was another legitimate son of Rhaegar who, under the normal succession, would be heir before Viserys. It is unclear whether the information from the Worldbook about naming Viserys the heir was 1) correct, 2) publically known, and especially 3) known to the Kingsguard at ToJ, who were most probably receiving news with a huge delay.

 

Oh, and welcome to the boards!

[Erudain]

I always like how Team Obey always conveniently forget that there were 3 KGs there, if they suspect Viserys is the new King, they can split themselves and do both things, protect the king as it's their vow, and leave one or two to fulfill Rhaegar's orders

[TemptressToo]

I think it's unlikely the Aerys knocked anyone up that late in the game, much less Lyanna.  He was fearful and suspicious and convinced everyone was out to get him.  The describe him as having long nails and hair and covered in scabs from the extended period he was spending on the Iron Throne.  I doubt he left the safety of the throne room or his bedchamber during that time, such is insanity.  Additionally, he had Jamie with him 24/7...do you think Jamie would have remembered a Lyanna encounter?

Of the Kings Guard at the TOJ, Dayne was Rhaegar's best friend.  That also bears some weight and significance, IMO.

I'm hoping that we get to see Howland Reed before the end of the series...although, with Bran's strengthening skills, we might not need him.  Bran alone would be able to see if a certain wedding took place before the old gods and a heart tree and confirm part of the theory.

[UnmaskedLurker]

2 minutes ago, Erudain said:

I always like how Team Obey always conveniently forget that there were 3 KGs there, if they suspect Viserys is the new King, they can split themselves and do both things, protect the king as it's their vow, and leave one or two to fulfill Rhaegar's orders

I have challenged members of Team Obey on that point, and the typical answer seems to be something along the following line of thought. The orders were given to all 3 KG, so all 3 had to obey. Moreover, they were planning to go to Viserys, but needed to wait just a little longer for Lyanna either to die or be able to travel. That way they can fulfill their obligation to obey (i.e., the order to guard Lyanna and the baby) and to protect the King (who was not in immediate danger and could wait a little longer until the 3 KG could get to him with Lyanna, if she had lived, and the baby).

Now understand that i am NOT a member of Team Obey (I am quite firmly with Team Protect), but as I suspect none of the members of Team Obey are here now and willing to try to answer your challenge, I wanted to present their views as best as I can.

Oh, and my counter to that point is that the mere presence of the KG at ToJ perhaps could be explained that way. But the conversation with Ned is not consistent with such an interpretation of the facts. For example, the conversation between the 3 KG and Ned makes it clear to me that they do not think they have any obligation to go to V at all (emphasizing that Darry is not KG and thus free to go to DS with Viserys), and that they believe that they have a VOW that requires them to stay at ToJ (following the crown prince's orders is not really what someone would consider fulfilling a VOW, even if in a technical sense it could be seen that way -- while guarding the new heir to the throne would be central to their VOW as KG). 

[Erudain]

That's another topic they say "we swore vow" when talking to Ned, if they truly suspect Viserys it's the heir, then they are being 3 big hypocrites by remarking vows while they are not fulfilling them.
The image we get from Dayne and Hightower from the people that knew them, don't strike me as the hypocrite type...

[Ygrain]

Posting the link to MtnLion's ToJ analysis, because we haven't in a while  :-)

Team Protect forever!

 

ETA: Huh? Where did the link go?

[J. Stargaryen]

Quote

Maester Aemon sighed. “Have you heard nothing I’ve told you, Jon? Do you think you are the first?” He shook his ancient head, a gesture weary beyond words. “Three times the gods saw fit to test my vows. Once when I was a boy, once in the fullness of my manhood, and once when I had grown old. By then my strength was fled, my eyes grown dim, yet that last choice was as cruel as the first. My ravens would bring the news from the south, words darker than their wings, the ruin of my House, the death of my kin, disgrace and desolation. What could I have done, old, blind, frail? I was helpless as a suckling babe, yet still it grieved me to sit forgotten as they cut down my brother’s poor grandson, and his son, and even the little children…” - AGoT, Jon VIII

I love the irony of this line. Maester Aemon describing the end of Robert's Rebellion to Jon, who was, or would shortly become, a suckling babe himself around the time of these events. For the sake of the audience, Aemon might as well be saying that he was as helpless as Jon.

The paragraph itself contains a linguistic tie in to Ned's final chapter, where he thinks of himself as a "thrice-damned blind fool." Not to mention all of the other interesting stuff he thinks about in that chapter. Namely the crowning of Lyanna at Harrenhal. And of course this Jon chapter has quite a lot of potentially interesting things going on, with him receiving Longclaw and whatnot.

[MtnLion]

2 hours ago, TemptressToo said:

he had Jamie with him 24/7...do you think Jamie would have remembered a Lyanna encounter?

Playing devil's advocate for a moment, here.  Jaime was with him 24/7 after he returned from Harrenhal, since Jaime was sent back to King's Landing immediately after taking his oath (Ned witnessed that last part).  Now, I do think that if Aerys violated any females at Harrenhal the likely candidate would be Ashara, not Lyanna.  None of the Starks know of Lyanna being pregnant after Harrenhal, even though we have a winter keeping them together. 

[MtnLion]

3 hours ago, Black Crow said:

However while I'm indifferent as to the manner of the revelation

I don't find you indifferent to the revelation in any way.  You ignore the one that GRRM has already given us.  I am sure that you will ignore the next, too.    Just my cheerful smile and wink. 

[MtnLion]

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

Posting the link to MtnLion's ToJ analysis, because we haven't in a while  :-)

Team Protect forever!

Yes, the link is fixed in my signature. 

It must be protect, because that is how Ned understands it, and the dialogue has meaning to Ned. 

[J. Stargaryen]

15 hours ago, Black Crow said:

 

I'd tend to agree up to the point that some alternatives are less desperate than others and that Wolfmaid [wherever she has gone] did a useful job in organising a set of essays to look at specific alternatives.

On the whole, while still keeping an open mind, I do agree that R+L=J is the most likely answer, but at the same time think that the outcome is far less certain.

I think this goes without saying. Any theory that requires us to disregard almost everything we've been told about that period, so that it can *possibly* work will appear much more desperate than, for example, AD+L=J. Which, while having its own problems, still fits within the framework of the given timeline.

I think this is where the mystery really lies. There are so many questions that follow from RLJ, someone could probably make a pretty epic flowchart. Whereas with AD+L=J, it's obvious that his destiny would be to become the Sword of the Morning. Because of the possible ramifications of R+L=J, i think it's definitely the most interesting possibility. So it's probably not a coincidence that it's also the most likely.