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Rhaegar and Lyanna timeline question.


must needs the rushes

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Hard to pin this down, GRRM has been deliberately vague with his timeline. He doesn't like too much nit picking around specific dates or length of time to travel 1000 leagues.

Off the top of my head Tourney of HH was late in the year (of the false spring) 281 and R+L vanish early in 282. The rebellion likely kicked off mid 282 and lasted roughly a year. So TOJ is summer - Autumn 283. Dany born early 284.

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I think GRRM himself might have had headaches over this. What with AGOT being written and maybe most of his thinking on the Rhaegar Lyanna stuff being written ages before he came to grips with the size and scale of what his own damned mind would create.

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2 hours ago, RedShirt47 said:

Hard to pin this down, GRRM has been deliberately vague with his timeline. He doesn't like too much nit picking around specific dates or length of time to travel 1000 leagues.

Yeah, there's been more than one SSM about how people should not look into these timelines too deeply as they might not add up perfectly. As people have pointed out for examply, Aegon has to be born around the time of the tourney to make him still an infant who could possibly be swapped at the time of the sack of KL, and given that we know Elia was frail and had to stay in bed for a few months after Aegons birth and probably wasn't feeling that great during her pregnancy, either, she really shouldn't have been at the tourney. But she needs ot be there to be insulted by Lyanna being crowned QoLaB, so she is.

2 hours ago, RedShirt47 said:

Off the top of my head Tourney of HH was late in the year (of the false spring) 281 and R+L vanish early in 282. The rebellion likely kicked off mid 282 and lasted roughly a year. So TOJ is summer - Autumn 283. Dany born early 284.

That's my math as well. We don't have a dating on when R+L vanish yet, but it is after HH and before the start of the rebellion obviously, so early 282 makes sense. TOJ was after the main fighting had already ended, "close to a year" later, so I agree it must have been somewhere early Autumn of 283. (Not that it's really Autumn there with their screwed seasons, but you get the Point)

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27 minutes ago, must needs the rushes said:

Thanks for the replies everyone. My wife's pet theory is that Jon and Dany are non-twin siblings and I was unsure whether there was enough time to make this possible (regardless of other objections to the theory)

Martin tells us that Jon is "eight or nine months" older than Dany, so, yes, there is time enough between the two - barely - to be siblings. The problem is, depending on who she thinks are the parents of the two, is getting the characters in the same place at the needed time.

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Accordin to SSM Dany was born approx. 8 months after Jon. So they rather not have the same mother as it ia biologically impossible to get pregnant right after you gave birth ro one child. They might have same father though. Pregnant Rhaella is thought to have fleed to Dragonstone around the time the news about loss of battle od Trident reached Kings Landing. So in theory Rhaegar could have inseminated his mom Edypus style just before going to battle.

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1 minute ago, SFDanny said:

Martin tells us that Jon is "eight or nine months" older than Dany, so, yes, there is time enough between the two to be siblings. The problem is, depending on who she thinks are the parents of the two, is getting the characters in the same place at the needed time.

Her basic idea was that Lyanna was first impregnated at or just after the tourney, ran off before she started to show, had one baby, then conceived another 9 months before Ned and Co show up. It seems like a really quick turn around between babies, but not impossible. 

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According to what is officially known it is not possible. Dany was born in 284 AC. So she was conceived at first half of 283 AC at earliest. Thus Jon would have to be conceived mid of 282 at earliest which is more than half a year after the tournament in HH. 

Of course there is possibility that we are misslead about some of these dates

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If aegon were born pre hh tourney, he would be 3 at the toj incident in 284. No way you can swap a freaking 3 year old. Babies all look alike, or near enough, but not 3 year olds. Any number of serving people, maids, babysitters, maids, etc would have seen him and known what he looked like. And plus, what kind of person raises a kid for 3 years then sells him to be slaughtered for some wine? Aegon had to be younger.

 

Plus, wasn't rhaenys 4? It would make more sense for aegon to be younger since elia was so frail after rhaenys's birth.

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The timeline is a bit screwed up, Aegon was mentioned as a babe at breast but Rhaegar left him shortly after his birth to get on with Lyanna and disappeared almost a year and then headed to Trident, before that he trained his army first so that'd took time. He couldn't be a babe. a toddler but not a baby

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15 hours ago, must needs the rushes said:

Hey folks! I was wondering if anyone knows how long after the tourney at Harrenhall did Rhaegar "take" Lyanna and how long after that was incident at the Tower of Joy? Thanks! 

The Tourney at Harrenhal seems to have been in the second half of 281 AC. The exact moment is still a bit vague.

Rhaegar left Dragonstone early in 282 AC, but when exactly Lyanna disappeared, we don't know. The war began after the executions of Rickard and Brandon Stark in the last few months of 282 AC, and Lyanna will have been gone for a few short months by then (since Brandon travels to KL only after he learns about her disappearance, and Rickard is summoned after Brandon's arrest). How much time passes between Rickard's arrival in KL and his death, is again, unknown, but it is unlikely to have been long. That would imply that Lyanna disappeared somewhere in the middle of 282 AC. 

 

The war lasted about a year, and thus, ended in the last few months of 283 AC.

 

11 hours ago, must needs the rushes said:

Thanks for the replies everyone. My wife's pet theory is that Jon and Dany are non-twin siblings and I was unsure whether there was enough time to make this possible (regardless of other objections to the theory)

Well, as SFDanny states, GRRM has stated that Jon and Dany are "closer to eight or nine months" apart from each other. Technically, that makes it possible for them to be siblings, but indeed, that grearly depends on who you believe the parents are, and whether you believe that the dates given for Jon and Dany in the books currently are true or not.

As presented in the books, Daenerys was born in mid-284 AC, and Jon in late 283 AC...

 

10 hours ago, must needs the rushes said:

Her basic idea was that Lyanna was first impregnated at or just after the tourney, ran off before she started to show, had one baby, then conceived another 9 months before Ned and Co show up. It seems like a really quick turn around between babies, but not impossible. 

... And since we know that the tourney took place in 281 AC, Lyanna having been impregnated at the tourney and giving birth to Jon 9 months later, would place his birth in 282 AC.

 

So while there potentially is enough time between their respective births, again, whether such a theory could actually work depends, amongst other things, on who you believe the parents to be, as well as what information as presented in the books you have reason to believe to be untrue, and why.

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Just to clear a bit of confusion, she's considering R+L=J AND D, not yucky momcest. If the timeline works, there are still big hurdles to figure out like why Ned would send one kid back to the Targs but claim another, and if Dany was not born on Dragonstone, why does everyone else think she was, and most importantly what happened to the queen's real baby? 

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17 hours ago, GwynBleiddRaven said:

Accordin to SSM Dany was born approx. 8 months after Jon. So they rather not have the same mother as it ia biologically impossible to get pregnant right after you gave birth ro one child. They might have same father though. Pregnant Rhaella is thought to have fleed to Dragonstone around the time the news about loss of battle od Trident reached Kings Landing. So in theory Rhaegar could have inseminated his mom Edypus style just before going to battle.

Iirc George was more vague saying "around 8 or 9 months" Women can get pregnant again as soon as 25 days after giving birth if she isn't breastfeeding, and health care professionals usually talk to a mother about birth control before 6 weeks.

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  • 1 month later...
On 2/20/2016 at 11:35 AM, must needs the rushes said:

Just to clear a bit of confusion, she's considering R+L=J AND D, not yucky momcest. If the timeline works, there are still big hurdles to figure out like why Ned would send one kid back to the Targs but claim another, and if Dany was not born on Dragonstone, why does everyone else think she was, and most importantly what happened to the queen's real baby? 

or what if the Mad King is the father of both J & D? then the time between wouldn't be as important since the mothers would be different. if we can get the Mad King and Lyanna in the same place , maybe Rhaegar "kidnapped" her after being raped by the King, and Rhaegar took her away. the Mad King was very jealous and spiteful towards Rhaegar, so maybe he took what was special to him, kinda like the speculation about his ideas about the Right of First Night with Tywin and Johanna?

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41 minutes ago, ser naes yennet said:

or what if the Mad King is the father of both J & D? then the time between wouldn't be as important since the mothers would be different. if we can get the Mad King and Lyanna in the same place , maybe Rhaegar "kidnapped" her after being raped by the King, and Rhaegar took her away. the Mad King was very jealous and spiteful towards Rhaegar, so maybe he took what was special to him, kinda like the speculation about his ideas about the Right of First Night with Tywin and Johanna?

This makes no sense. I can see using this arguement for some of Joanna's kids being Aerys but there is nothing that points to Aerys raping Lyanna.

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