The Prophecies Are False/Fake/Wrong; Wait, what?

[Cas Stark]

2 hours ago, OIL, BLOOD, Water said:

Not really. Maggy the Frog's prophecy for example is only about 50% complete before it can be said to be "correct."

In the show, Maggy the Frog's prophecy has been shown to be false and it didn't come true. In the show, Myrcella is already dead so Maggy's "Gold will be their [crowns] and gold their [shrouds.]" line is incorrect. 

The show is often not very detail oriented when it comes to things like this, I don't believe that the show intended for the prophecy to be seen as "wrong" .  In the book version, a lot has already happened, Melara died a virgin at the hands of Cersei, who was in the tent.  Cersei did not marry the prince, but the king, she had 3 children, they had no children together.

Prophecy is changeable, otherwise Rhaego would not have died, maybe it's only changeable through magic.  But, too much of the prophecy has already happened in the books for prophecy to be meaningless and without any merit.  The trick is in the interpretation.

[Lord Lannister]

I'd just like it if the story just happened as it will, and it's left up to the reader if the prophecies happened, with a twist, or were complete bs. I think it'd be funny if the fanbase was still arguing over who AAR is after a Dream.

[grinny]

I think some prophecies will come true.

Some will come true if you close one eye, do a handstand and have a lot of fantasy.

And some would come true at all.

I think the interesting question would be, which ones that are selffullfilung.

[UnmaskedLurker]

22 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

The show is often not very detail oriented when it comes to things like this, I don't believe that the show intended for the prophecy to be seen as "wrong" .  In the book version, a lot has already happened, Melara died a virgin at the hands of Cersei, who was in the tent.  Cersei did not marry the prince, but the king, she had 3 children, they had no children together.

Prophecy is changeable, otherwise Rhaego would not have died, maybe it's only changeable through magic.  But, too much of the prophecy has already happened in the books for prophecy to be meaningless and without any merit.  The trick is in the interpretation.

I disagree. The prophecies are not changeable. The prophecies simply can be misinterpreted. The prophecy of TSTMTW will come true -- it is a genuine prophecy and will occur as prophecized. Rhaego as TSTMTW was an interpretation of the prophecy -- and that interpretation was WRONG. But an incorrect interpretation of a prophecy is completely different than a prophecy being incorrect. Rhaego never was TSTMTW -- I believe that Dany is TSTMTW and always was going to be TSTMTW.

[Cas Stark]

7 minutes ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

I disagree. The prophecies are not changeable. The prophecies simply can be misinterpreted. The prophecy of TSTMTW will come true -- it is a genuine prophecy and will occur as prophecized. Rhaego as TSTMTW was an interpretation of the prophecy -- and that interpretation was WRONG. But an incorrect interpretation of a prophecy is completely different than a prophecy being incorrect. Rhaego never was TSTMTW -- I believe that Dany is TSTMTW and always was going to be TSTMTW.

Dany still sees a vision of Rhaego as a young man, which means there was at some time a future where he wasn't going to die, but he does die, so that still suggests that the future is changeable, and was changed, which I would think would have an affect on prophecy as well.

[One-eyed Misbehavin]

14 hours ago, OIL, BLOOD, Water said:

Most tinfoil theories are not true, even GRRM said so.

Readers think GRRM is this super deep author that weaves secrets and riddles into EVERY SINGLE SENTENCE. But he doesn't, he said most of the theories are bullshit.

There's really only 3 theories that have concrete text evidence:

3. Varys being a mermaid/working with Littlefinger to bring down the Wall and flood Westeros. 

What?? Lol

[One-eyed Misbehavin]

Can we stop a second and realize maggot correctly predicted cersei marrying Robert not rhaegar and correctly predicted the number of children BOTH would have. And maggy's prophecy seems almost certain to come true 

[Prince of the North]

3 hours ago, OIL, BLOOD, Water said:

Not really. Maggy the Frog's prophecy for example is only about 50% complete before it can be said to be "correct."

In the show, Maggy the Frog's prophecy has been shown to be false and it didn't come true. In the show, Myrcella is already dead so Maggy's "Gold will be their [crowns] and gold their [shrouds.]" line is incorrect. 

Not if "gold will be their crowns" refers to the color of their hair (which is an important clue to readers that they are not Robert Baratheon's children) and not that they'll all be crowned as kings/queens.  Also, I believe "gold will be their shrouds" refers to the fact that Cercei's children, all fathered by her Lannister brother, will nonetheless die with the world believing them to be Baratheons (thus, making their burial shrouds gold, not red).

[DasallmaechtigeJ]

That's actually what I wish for. GRRM fliping the bird to all AA reborn/the world is one endless repetitive cycle theorists and be just like "Fuck you and your stupid theories, my characters are gonna develop totally different". The cool thing about prophecies is that they make for very good theories/predictions. The bad thing about prophecies is that simple rophecies such as AA reborn make the entire story predictable/boring. Just imagine the books would end EXACTLY like all the theorists want to make us believe. That would fucking suck, wouldn't it?

[Jak Scaletongue]

16 hours ago, Neolaina said:

Prophecy and the fulfillment of it in some way or another is a staple of the fantasy genre. I've often wondered if one of the twists to the genre we would see are all matters and forms of prophecy falling flat. Completely flat. Backfiring in every way or another.

In other words, none of the prophecies we're privy to, none of the prophecies that so many ideas and conspiracies and theories hinge on, none of them come to pass.

What would happen if all the prophecies, in their entirety, were bunk?*

*I do mean this rhetorically. Not looking to make a list of all the things that might affect, although...

I've thought long and hard about this simple idea, and have been using it as a baseline through which to approach every topic here for the past few weeks. It's had the inevitable side effect of me not posting much, because so many threads focus on prophecy - specifically, prophecy coming to fruition in a specific way - that expect me to hold one belief over another.  And I've been thinking about it more and more with each topic that pops up, with each rehashed thread, and subsequent rehashed posts, and the strings of carbon-copy text that follow; there's only so many ways to argue (e.g.) Jojenpaste. 

#FroJo

#NeedsMoreJojen

Aw, man, FroJo would actually be an awesome username...er....

It's a nice change.

====

Why haven't I brought this up in other topics?

• Every time I try, I find my posts derailing from the threads because many threads hinge upon prophecy and how we interpret it. Those posts are promptly deleted or simply not posted.
• People like their prophecies. They're something to cling to, they give us connections and baselines and allow us to mirror the future to the past.
• An awful lot of people would be pissed if the myriad amounts of time invested exploring them amounted to a waste.

====

How does this change how we might look at the future of the novels, without shattering everything into sharp, non-digestible pieces?

How would people feel if all of the prophecies therein were false?

Could this make sense?

And of course, there's a place for self-fulfilling prophecy discussion here, since it's a very important aspect to the topic.

====

Short of self-fulfilling prophecies, which aren't governed by fate or an outside source or what have you, this thread isn't meant to be a grounds to discuss whether certain prophecies are real or fake. For all intents and purposes, there exists the presupposition herein that all prophecies found within ASOIAF are bullshit. 

Note: The historical background to the prophecies, or the first instances of the many second comings (Azor Ahai, etc.) remain real. The idea here is that none of these things will come to pass again, in the present.

Alright, I'll be back in a bit. This coffee's goin' through me way too quickly.

 

 

In any fantasy novel I've ever read that has a focus on one or more prophecies they tend not to be....accurate....They aren't *wrong* but neither are they exactly as offered.  As a result, when I'm reading a fantasy novel that has a focus on prophecy, I tend to begin with the assumption that the prophecy, while important, won't give the game away! 

I've recently started reading the WOT for the first time (I realize I'm a bit behind times - I'm only on book 6, so there shouldn't be any big spoilers...).  And comparing how the Dragon Reborn prophecy is presented and interpreted by various people and how the Dragon Reborn prophecy is actually playing out, it becomes quite apparent that you simply can't guess what's going to happen based solely on a prophecy.  There are far too many variations playing out to make any concrete observations about how the prophecy will "end."  And far too many variables causing the variations.  Rand "breaking the world" can, and does, have sooooo many meanings - he has the power to literally "break the world" but the changes he's bringing about are *also* "breaking the world" as they know it without any physical breaking of anything.  Same with the Aiel prophecy about the Car'a'carn and their "destruction" - so far, they haven't been literally destroyed (but I'm not near the end yet...) but their former way of life has been.  How does one decide if the prophecy has come true or not?  Who's interpretation should you believe? Is "remaking" the world the same as "breaking" it?

Anyways, the point is that this idea about prophecy being the be-all, end-all is about as accurate as the prophecy itself!  Prophecies can be useful tools, but they shouldn't be your *only* tool!  And there is always the chance of misinterpreting the prophecy (anyone heard the tale of King Croesus of Lydia and the Oracle?  He asked the Oracle if he should go to war against Persia and was told* "If you go to war with Persia, an ancient and mighty kingdom will fall" so Croesus went to war.  Care to wager a guess which ancient and mighty kingdom went belly up? LOL - *not an actual quote, just my memory).  Even when prophecies are "correct" there's still plenty of room for simple misinterpretation.

Now, if prophecies were false straight from the get-go - man, that'd be great as far as I'm concerned!  That's a twist most fantasy readers wouldn't see coming.  I'm not entirely sure how it would affect the storyline, though.  Because if the prophecies still exist, there's going to be people trying to fulfill them one way or another.  I think it's generally agreed upon that Mel is misinterpreting the Azor Ahai prophecy, but how would her actions be any different if the prophecy was bunk?  Mel would still believe in the prophecy, anyway, and she would continue to try to fulfill it, wouldn't she?  I don't think it really matters if the prophecy is absolutely incorrect, inaccurate and just plain wrong IF someone continues to believe in said prophecies.  As long as there are "believers" of a prophecy I don't think the accuracy of the prophecy matters at all.

 

because so many threads focus on prophecy - specifically, prophecy coming to fruition in a specific way - that expect me to hold one belief over another.

^THIS!  Except not just prophecies - I get a lot of flack for playing devil's advocate and for having conflicting opinions on various theories (ie: R+L=J).  It seems odd that I can't take a "wait and see" approach and examine all the different angles that are presented.  I don't want to convince myself that R+L=J is the answer because there are other variations that are just as exciting and interesting.  Is R+L=J the most likely?  So far yes, it appears that way, that's cool.  But what's wrong with wanting to argue for AND against it?  It's all fiction, the books aren't done yet, and I would much rather have GRRM tell me (one day...) the story he wants to tell.  There's no point getting my heart all set on particular answer only to have my hopes dashed.  I'd rather sit on the fence, see all my options laid before me and wait for the author to give me a few more nudges in the direction he's going.  That, and I enjoy being contrary.  Just ask my mother!

(RLJ is just my example, it's not the only theory that *some* commenters think you should choose your side and stay on it - not all, not even most commenters are like that, but *some* are and they stick out like a sore thumb)

 

And now I will try to get past the OP!

[Jak Scaletongue]

8 hours ago, SevasTra82 said:

what happened at the TOJ.

While I do enjoy being contrary, I will agree that R+L=J is the most likely answer to Jon's parents.  As for the TOJ, all we've got is a fever dream that we've been told not to take literally.  I don't think we know what happened at the TOJ, I think there's plenty left to learn.  *What* there is to learn, I have no idea, but I don't think we know exactly what happened there.

1 hour ago, Cas Stark said:

Dany still sees a vision of Rhaego as a young man, which means there was at some time a future where he wasn't going to die, but he does die, so that still suggests that the future is changeable, and was changed, which I would think would have an affect on prophecy as well.

Didn't the dude giving her the shade of the evening say she'd see things that have happened, that could happen and that won't happen?  I'll see if I can find the quote I'm looking for.

ETA: Pyat Pree at the House of the Undying;

Quote

"By no means," Pyat Pree said. "Leaving and coming, it is the same. Always up. Always the door to your right. Other doors may open to you. Within, you will see many things that disturb you. Visions of loveliness and visions of horror, wonders and terrors. Sights and sounds of days gone by and days to come and days that never were. Dwellers and servitors may speak to you as you go. Answer or ignore them as you choose, but enter no room until you reach the audience chamber."

Full-grown!Rhaego wasn't a "day gone by" or a "day to come" by ACOK - that makes the vision of Rhaego one of the "days that never were."  Whether that means prophecies are changeable or whether the Dothraki crones misinterpreted the Stallion - I can guess, but I don't *know* the answer any better than anyone else!  I'd bet the crones misinterpreted rather than changeable prophecies (I mean, they're Dothraki too - no woman can lead a khalasar, so the Stallion they thought they had in front of them *must* be the babe she's carrying, not the woman.  It is a very patriarchal mistake to make! And given their culture, a reasonable misinterpretation - I doubt they expected their "Stallion" would ever be an "outsider" like Dany).

[UnmaskedLurker]

1 minute ago, Cas Stark said:

Dany still sees a vision of Rhaego as a young man, which means there was at some time a future where he wasn't going to die, but he does die, so that still suggests that the future is changeable, and was changed, which I would think would have an affect on prophecy as well.

You are confusing two different scenes. I would argue that Dany never sees Rhaego as TSTMTW. Dany merely sees Rhaego as an adult with a stallion banner and a burning city. But that vision is after Rhaego has already died at birth. It is not necessarily a vision of Rhaego as TSTMTW.  But before I get more into that vision -- let's go back to the vision we got from the crone.

I think that there actually are two "visions" that need to be interpreted to put this issue in context. Let's take them in order.

TSTMTW  clearly is a genuine prophecy that has been handed down for generations. The crone "saw" and described what she saw as TSTMTW. Here is how she describes TSTMTW:

Quote

As swift as the wind he rides, and behind him his khalasar covers the earth, men without number, with arakhs shining in their hands like blades of razor grass. Fierce as a storm this prince will be. His enemies will tremble before him, and their wives will weep tears of blood and rend their flesh in grief. The bells in his hair will sing his coming, and the milk men in the stone tents will fear his name." The old woman trembled and looked at Dany almost as if she were afraid. "The prince is riding, and he shall be the stallion who mounts the world.

But we don't know what she actually saw. The crone assumes she is seeing Rhaego -- I believe most likely she saw a "vision" of a symbolic horse (what she assumes to be a stallion -- but I believe is really a mare) and assumes that horse is Rhaego (just as TPTWP appears to have been represented as a dragon and not a person -- at least Aemon implies as much). I believe it was not Rhaego -- it was Dany. Just like Mel -- the crone's visions are real -- her interpretations are suspect. So when she indicates she saw Rhaego -- she simply has misinterpreted what she saw -- but what she saw was a genuine prophecy that will happen.

Now back to the scene when Dany sees Rhaego. That is the vision you reference -- but that vision does not directly indicate that Rhaego would have been TSTMTW or suggests that Dany is seeing  a prophecy -- after all, that vision occurs AFTER Rhaego is already dead. Dany merely sees what might have been -- completely different than a prophecy. This vision is meant to lead readers to conclude that Rhaego would have been TSTMTW -- when he was never going to be TSTMTW. A vision of someone already dead simply cannot be a prophecy. The prophecy is yet to be fulfilled -- but it will be fulfilled in the way it was always meant to be fulfilled -- I believe by Dany.

[booger_eater]

I'm sorry... WHAT!?

I second this. Someone please explain where Varys having a fishy tail in his pants came from.

I like how he says it's proven in the text. Guy is obviously trolling an look! He got a couple bites. Hope he's got some game and can set the hook with some complete bullshit.

[sarah.jenice]

Just now, Good Guy Garlan said:

If I remember correctly, this...theory originated from a) Varys and Illyrio climbing out of a huge bottomless pit in the Red Keep dungeons back in aGoT, and b ) Varys telling Tyrion he "paddles on" in Clash.

Oh, and there's also this part:

 

Well that explains it.

[Ninerings]

2 hours ago, sarah.jenice said:

Well that explains it.

LOL

[joluoto2]

I think it will play out in a way that it can be interpreted that prophecies came true, but it will all be up to interpretation, and we will argue who was Azor Ahai and what Lightbringer was long after the series are over.

While in reality prophecies are just words, and words are wind. Because things happen that can be interpreted as prophecies coming true, doesn't mean it actually is prophecies coming true.

[BalerionTheCat]

On 24/2/2016 at 9:20 PM, UnmaskedLurker said:

But we don't know what she actually saw. The crone assumes she is seeing Rhaego -- I believe most likely she saw a "vision" of a symbolic horse (what she assumes to be a stallion -- but I believe is really a mare) and assumes that horse is Rhaego (just as TPTWP appears to have been represented as a dragon and not a person -- at least Aemon implies as much). I believe it was not Rhaego -- it was Dany. Just like Mel -- the crone's visions are real -- her interpretations are suspect. So when she indicates she saw Rhaego -- she simply has misinterpreted what she saw -- but what she saw was a genuine prophecy that will happen.

This is just my interpretation... and my preference. But I would think the future is not frozen. And what is foretold can be avoided. With difficulty sometimes. Or is still only a potential, and need some nudging to accomplish. Why, otherwise, all those with prophetic visions would struggle and toil to facilitate or oppose what the vision told them?

In Cersei case, for example. I'm convinced Maggy prediction could have been avoided. If only Cersei had not killed her friend the same night the witch had prophesied. Concerning the Dothrakis's stallion, I believe the prophecy was still a possibility when the crone saw it. And Daenerys must have seen something that could have been, but was no more, or could still be, how unlikely.

But I believe the prophecies may also have different interpretations, depending on who receives them. Maybe the crone saw a Kahl, because she could not understand a ruler otherwise than as a Kahl, the leader of a band of rappers and despoilers. But maybe what she saw was the coming of a unified world, as it was before the first Long Night, the Blood Betrayal. I believe she had a glimpse of the restoration of the Great Empire of the Dawn, or some modern form of it. My impression is that everywhere people are suffering of unworthy leaders. And it is high time for drastic changes. Even the seasons are broken and are in need of a fix.

When I was a boy,” Tyrion replied, "my wet nurse told me that one day, if men were good, the gods would give the world a summer without ending. Perhaps we’ve been better than we thought, and the Great Summer is finally at hand."

Yet the Great Empire of the Dawn was not reborn, for the restored world was a broken place where every tribe of men went its own way, fearful of all the others, and war and lust and murder endured, even to our present day.

[UnmaskedLurker]

3 minutes ago, BalerionTheCat said:

This is just my interpretation... and my preference. But I would think the future is not frozen. And what is foretold can be avoided. With difficulty sometimes. Or is still only a potential, and need some nudging to accomplish. Why, otherwise, all those with prophetic visions would struggle and toil to facilitate or oppose what the vision told them?

In Cersei case, for example. I'm convinced Maggy prediction could have been avoided. If only Cersei had not killed her friend the same night the witch had prophesied. Concerning the Dothrakis's stallion, I believe the prophecy was still a possibility when the crone saw it. And Daenerys must have seen something that could have been, but was no more, or could still be, how unlikely.

But I believe the prophecies may also have different interpretations, depending on who receives them. Maybe the crone saw a Kahl, because she could not understand a ruler otherwise than as a Kahl, the leader of a band of rappers and despoilers. But maybe what she saw was the coming of a unified world, as it was before the first Long Night, the Blood Betrayal. I believe she had a glimpse of the restoration of the Great Empire of the Dawn, or some modern form of it. My impression is that everywhere people are suffering of unworthy leaders. And it is high time for drastic changes. Even the seasons are broken and are in need of a fix.

When I was a boy,” Tyrion replied, "my wet nurse told me that one day, if men were good, the gods would give the world a summer without ending. Perhaps we’ve been better than we thought, and the Great Summer is finally at hand."

Yet the Great Empire of the Dawn was not reborn, for the restored world was a broken place where every tribe of men went its own way, fearful of all the others, and war and lust and murder endured, even to our present day.

Given that prophecy is only used as a literary construct, I cannot be certain which form of prophecy GRRM is using. My sense, however, is that he is not using prophecy in the sense that you prefer. As I have argued elsewhere, prophecy make the most sense if one imagines that there really is only one time line -- when a vision of the future is seen as a true prophecy -- it is a look into that time line. That time line includes, however, the consequence of people hearing the prophecy. 

So to take your example of Cersei killing her friend. Maggy saw that the friend died. Maggy did not cause the friend to die. The telling of the prophecy did not technically cause the friend to die. Cersei caused the friend to die. The prophecy "saw" that this event would happen -- the friend would die. If Cersei was not going to react to the prophecy by killing her friend, then the prophecy simply would not have "seen" the friend dying. It only saw the friend dying because Cersei reacted as she did and eventually killed the friend. The prophecy merely was a window into that future.

So why do people try to influence the prophecy? Basically because people are ignorant or stupid. They do not understand that the prophecy is a window into the future of a single time line. So they act as they do. And the prophecy sees how they react to the telling of the prophecy,and that reaction becomes part of the basis for the prophecy (a "time paradox" of sorts).

So everyone still has full free will. And it is not that the future is frozen -- it is that time is not a strictly linear concept. But there can only be one time line. So if the prophecy sees the future -- then it sees the future and the future will happen that way. Because the prophecy had the ability to see the future. This is what the prophecy is. A prophecy is not a curse, where if you avoid it one way, it comes back in a different way. Prophecy is morally neutral -- it simply is a glimpse at what will be.

But back to TSTMTW -- I simply do not think that the crone saw Rhaego as TSTMTW. Either she saw Rhaego in terms of what might have been and assumed, incorrectly, that she was seeing TSTMTW -- OR, more likely, she saw TSTMTW and assumed she was seeing Rhaego when she really was seeing Dany. Otherwise, from a literary point of view, TSTMTW prophecy would be a flop -- and prophecies are not given in a piece of literature like this to be a flop. They are given to come true -- just not in the way most readers imagine. The trick is to keep the readers guessing and hopefully have the prophecy fulfilled in a way that surprises and delights the readers. To have the prophecy flop is a literary dead end.

[BalerionTheCat]

27 minutes ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

Given that prophecy is only used as a literary construct, I cannot be certain which form of prophecy GRRM is using. My sense, however, is that he is not using prophecy in the sense that you prefer. As I have argued elsewhere, prophecy make the most sense if one imagines that there really is only one time line -- when a vision of the future is seen as a true prophecy -- it is a look into that time line. That time line includes, however, the consequence of people hearing the prophecy.

I don't think we have evidences the given prophecies are the future, as it is already written. After everything we can do to have it, or to avoid it, has been done. If I understand correctly your explanation. In fact, with TSTMTW, I think we have the evidence the future can be changed. Your hypothesis of the crone confusing Rhaego and Daenerys is possible, but requires, IMO, one more difficult assumption. And I don't think Bloodraven, the CotF, the High priests of R'hllor, Euron and others, are all ignorant or stupid. Just me though.