What did Melisandre and the Mance have in mind?

[Lost Melnibonean]

Apparently, Melisandre wanted Jon to send Mance to rescue his sister in order to gain Jon’s trust, but the especially curious issue here was that Melisandre saw Arya riding north, east of Long Lake, and Mance said he had a ploy in mind, asking for a handful of spearwives to help him, suggesting he knew that he would be going to Winterfell not the eastern shore of Long Lake. Later we found out with the arrival of Alys Karstark at Castle Black, that Mance did not even bother to look for Arya, and Jon began to suspect that Melisandre had some other task for Mance. He ended up thinking about Melisandre’s secret agenda at least twice more.

Disguised as Abel, an echo of Mance’s hero, Bael the Bard, the Mance wanted to know how Theon captured Winterfell. Clearly, Mance was attempting to find some way for Stannis to capture Winterfell. He also wanted Theon to show him the crypts. While Mance was apparently unable to find some way for Stannis to capture Winterfell by some trick, his spearwives began murdering men to fan the flames of animosity between House Frey and the Northmen, especially House Manderly. Presumably, Mance intended to hide in the crypts as Bael had done.

But why was Mance so eager, desperate even, to help the presumed Arya to escape? He did not seem to care about Theon, but he needed Theon to get the presumed Arya out. Did he believe that he had stumbled upon Arya Stark at Winterfell, and that he needed to get her out of the castle to fulfill Melisandre’s vision to foster good relations with Jon and to promote fidelity between the Free Folk and the North? Is that why he apparently sacrificed himself to free the presumed Arya? Theon was quite convinced that Abel would be caught and flayed by Ramsay, and that fate was apparently confirmed in the pink letter

Spoiler

and in the Theon spoiler chapter from Winds, the events of which were confirmed to have occurred before Jon received the pink letter.

Interestingly, one of the spearwives, Rowan, seemed to hold Theon in great contempt. This alone would not have been suspect, but she also took great umbrage at Theon’s use of House Stark’s words, suggesting she was actually a daughter of the North rather than a native of the Free Folk, although there did seem to be a grudging respect of, or awe for, House Stark among the Free Folk. Rowan, tall and skinny, too lean and leathery to be called pretty, but attractive with auburn hair, could very well have been the daughter Mors lost during a wilding raid. Perhaps Mance stoped at Last Hearth with Rowam on his way to Winterfell. Perhaps Rowan convinced her father that he should not be demanding Mance’s skull for a drinking cup after all. Mors later arrived at Winterfell. He did not attack, but he started blowing war horns, presumably to instill fear in the defenders, but possibly to alert agents on the inside, and notice that was precisely when Mance decided it was time to bug out.

The Dornishman's Wife foreshadowed Abel's fate. 

[GwynBleiddRaven]

Can you provide the source for confirmation of Theon TWOW chapter happening before pink letter?

My idea is that indeed Mel send Mance mainly to gather intel and find a way to capture Winterfell.

But Mance has apparently his own agenda too. I think he wanted to save Arya to return the greatest favor anybody could give him: saving his son. Which Jon did by switching Gilly's and Mances babies and I think Mance knows it.

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 hours ago, GwynBleiddRaven said:

Can you provide the source for confirmation of Theon TWOW chapter happening before pink letter?

My idea is that indeed Mel send Mance mainly to gather intel and find a way to capture Winterfell.

But Mance has apparently his own agenda too. I think he wanted to save Arya to return the greatest favor anybody could give him: saving his son. Which Jon did by switching Gilly's and Mances babies and I think Mance knows it.

A Taste of Winter

As a Christmas gift to all my loyal fans and readers, I've just replaced the (long published) sample chapters from A DANCE WITH DRAGONS on my website with an unpublished sample chapter from THE WINDS OF WINTER.

Go ye to "Ice & Fire Sample" on my website and enjoy.

(The chronology, as usual, is tricky. This chapter will be found eventually at the beginning of WINDS, but as you will be able to tell from context, it actually takes place before some of the chapters at the end of DANCE).

Love it or hate it, please do NOT discuss it here. Any such posts will be deleted. There are plenty of great places on the net for such discussions, so take your thoughts, comments, and analysis to Westeros or the Tower of the Hand or the Podcast of Ice and Fire, or your favorite foreign language site. 

(FYI, there will be a different sample chapter from WINDS OF WINTER included at the end of the paperback edition of A DANCE WITH DRAGONS when that is published next July).

Happy holidays, all. Keep reading.12/28/2011

[Eden-Mackenzie]

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

But why was Mance so eager, desperate even, to help the presumed Arya to escape? He did not seem to care about Theon, but he needed Theon to get the presumed Arya out. Did he believe that he had stumbled upon Arya Stark at Winterfell, and that he needed to get her out of the castle to fulfill Melisandre’s vision to foster good relations with Jon and to promote fidelity between the Free Folk and the North? Is that why he apparently sacrificed himself to free the presumed Arya?

Do you think Mance is unaware Ramsay's bride is not Arya Stark?

[Good Guy Garlan]

4 hours ago, GwynBleiddRaven said:

But Mance has apparently his own agenda too. I think he wanted to save Arya to return the greatest favor anybody could give him: saving his son. Which Jon did by switching Gilly's and Mances babies and I think Mance knows it.

I think his motive was less pure than that: he wanted to get Arya so he could trade her for his son. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 hours ago, Eden-Mackenzie said:

Do you think Mance is unaware Ramsay's bride is not Arya Stark?

I am not sure. Do you think he does? I don't think so. Why would he sacrifice himself and his spear wives to save Jeyne Poole (poor Jeyne)? 

[Lost Melnibonean]

32 minutes ago, Good Guy Garlan said:

I think his motive was less pure than that: he wanted to get Arya so he could trade her for his son. 

I agree that could have been the reason he was willing to sacrifice himself and his spearwives, but that wasn't the reason he left Castle Black, since he had a ploy in mind and apparently did not bother to look for Arya where Melisandre said she would be. 

[LadyoftheNorth72]

The problem is that we don't know yet whether Mel and Mance were working truthfully with each other or not. Did Mel know that Mance was going to Winterfell and this was her way of getting him there to help Stannis, or did she truly believe she was sending him to the grey girl?

But Mel has made some fairly large mistakes in the past. Once Mance was free of her control (the ruby) he could head wherever he pleased and while she might later see it, there would be eff all she could do about it. 

If I *had* to guess, I personally believe she used her actual vision to hoodwink Jon into letting Mance and his girls go. Then she could blame her "misinterpretation" when the wrong girl turned up at the Wall. Or the right one. Didn't matter to her if it was Arya or not; to her Arya is inconsequential. Getting assistance to Stannis is imperative. IMO that's why she was fine with being left behind this time - so she could be the spotter up in the stands. 

Regarding the girls getting Arya - real or false - out of Winterfell, the Boltons' hold on the North depends in large part on people believing Ramsay and Arya are married and together. It's bad enough that they have a fake Arya. To be able to produce no Arya at all would convince the North that Ramsay has slain her, and then it's bye bye Boltons. 

[Good Guy Garlan]

16 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I agree that could have been the reason he was willing to sacrifice himself and his spearwives, but that wasn't the reason he left Castle Black, since he had a ploy in mind and apparently did not bother to look for Arya where Melisandre said she would be. 

Good point. I don't know, it'd be too much of a coincidence if his mission was to infiltrate Winterfell and Arya just happened to be there too. But I guess stranger things have happened, and your idea is completely possible. I think it's either that or the idea of Mance going over to the Boltons to have his revenge on Jon and Stannis. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

12 minutes ago, LadyoftheNorth72 said:

The problem is that we don't know yet whether Mel and Mance were working truthfully with each other or not. Did Mel know that Mance was going to Winterfell and this was her way of getting him there to help Stannis, or did she truly believe she was sending him to the grey girl?

But Mel has made some fairly large mistakes in the past. Once Mance was free of her control (the ruby) he could head wherever he pleased and while she might later see it, there would be eff all she could do about it. 

If I *had* to guess, I personally believe she used her actual vision to hoodwink Jon into letting Mance and his girls go. Then she could blame her "misinterpretation" when the wrong girl turned up at the Wall. Or the right one. Didn't matter to her if it was Arya or not; to her Arya is inconsequential. Getting assistance to Stannis is imperative. IMO that's why she was fine with being left behind this time - so she could be the spotter up in the stands. 

Regarding the girls getting Arya - real or false - out of Winterfell, the Boltons' hold on the North depends in large part on people believing Ramsay and Arya are married and together. It's bad enough that they have a fake Arya. To be able to produce no Arya at all would convince the North that Ramsay has slain her, and then it's bye bye Boltons. 

So Melisandre and the Mance both wanted the Mance to go to Winterfell for different reasons? Melisandre wanted the Mance to help Stannis, but she didn't  tell him to do so? And why did the Mance want to go to Winterfell if he thought Arya was between Long Lake and Castle Black, what was his purpose when he left Castle Black? And why would Mance think the North would believe Ramsay had murdered Arya if several  thousand witnesses were aware of her escape? 

[Lost Melnibonean]

6 minutes ago, Good Guy Garlan said:

Good point. I don't know, it'd be too much of a coincidence if his mission was to infiltrate Winterfell and Arya just happened to be there too. But I guess stranger things have happened, and your idea is completely possible. I think it's either that or the idea of Mance going over to the Boltons to have his revenge on Jon and Stannis. 

I find Mance’s character to be too honorable, too romantically heroic to be align with the evil Boltons. I mean, if Rowan can't stomach Theon using the Stark words, how could The Mance side with Ramsay? Or maybe you think he changed his mind after he got there?

[LadyoftheNorth72]

11 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

So Melisandre and the Mance both wanted the Mance to go to Winterfell for different reasons? Melisandre wanted the Mance to help Stannis, but she didn't  tell him to do so? And why did the Mance want to go to Winterfell if he thought Arya was between Long Lake and Castle Black, what was his purpose when he left Castle Black? And why would Mance think the North would believe Ramsay had murdered Arya if several  thousand witnesses were aware of her escape? 

As I said, there's not enough information yet to be certain of anything, but:

* their reasons may have differed in some areas and aligned in some, but they saw a way for both to fulfill their goals. 

* again, I don't think it mattered to M&M who was coming to the Wall - the real Arya, a fake Arya, or someone else entirely. The goal was to get Mance on the move and into Winterfell, and the vision was the excuse. Why would Mance go along with it? Because Mel holds his life in her hands. 

* tens of thousands did not see Arya escape. Maybe a few men on the walls at Winterfell saw Reek escaping with a hooded girl, and no one else saw squat. It was a blizzard, remember? All the Northmen would know was that the next time someone was supposed to see Ramsay's bride in her chambers, she had disappeared. Given Ramsay's nature and marital history, are they going to believe that she escaped her chambers, jumped the wall, and ran off into the storm - or that Ramsay has done her harm and hidden her body?

[Winter Rose Crown]

Maybe mance knows about the protection of there being a stark in winterfell and he wants her out so he can do/get something.

 

Eta assuming he thinks she's real.

[Good Guy Garlan]

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I find Mance’s character to be too honorable, too romantically heroic to be align with the evil Boltons. I mean, if Rowan can't stomach Theon using the Stark words, how could The Mance side with Ramsay? Or maybe you think he changed his mind after he got there?

Yeah, I think he meant it when he said he was done with the Free Folk. I mean, he lost literally everything thanks to Jon and Stannis: his wife dead, his child and sister in law captured, his army smashed into pieces. I don't think you come back from that without a few changes. I could see him leaving behind his romatic, idealistic persona and being willing to cut a deal with the wildlings in behalf of Roose, in exchange for a pardon and his kid and Val back. And some sweet revenge. Hence the Pink Letter, which I think he helped write. 

[Lord Wraith]

6 hours ago, Eden-Mackenzie said:

Do you think Mance is unaware Ramsay's bride is not Arya Stark?

Considering he has seen Arya before I'd say yes he knows Arya is a fake. Still Theon is the goal, fake Arya is a bonus.

4 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I find Mance’s character to be too honorable, too romantically heroic to be align with the evil Boltons. I mean, if Rowan can't stomach Theon using the Stark words, how could The Mance side with Ramsay? Or maybe you think he changed his mind after he got there?

I agree, while he doesn't like working for Mel and Stannis he owes them his life. Also he is clever enough to turn his freedom to his own advantage.

 

1 hour ago, Good Guy Garlan said:

Yeah, I think he meant it when he said he was done with the Free Folk. I mean, he lost literally everything thanks to Jon and Stannis: his wife dead, his child and sister in law captured, his army smashed into pieces. I don't think you come back from that without a few changes. I could see him leaving behind his romatic, idealistic persona and being willing to cut a deal with the wildlings in behalf of Roose, in exchange for a pardon and his kid and Val back. And some sweet revenge. Hence the Pink Letter, which I think he helped write. 

While I agree Mance wrote or at least helped write the Pink Letter I don't think he allied with the Boltons.

[Lost Melnibonean]

6 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

Considering he has seen Arya before I'd say yes he knows Arya is a fake. Still Theon is the goal, fake Arya is a bonus.

I agree, while he doesn't like working for Mel and Stannis he owes them his life. Also he is clever enough to turn his freedom to his own advantage.

 

While I agree Mance wrote or at least helped write the Pink Letter I don't think he allied with the Boltons.

Why would freeing Theon be the goal? 

[Eden-Mackenzie]

10 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I am not sure. Do you think he does? I don't think so. Why would he sacrifice himself and his spear wives to save Jeyne Poole (poor Jeyne)? 

I am not sure either, but I am more inclined to think he is aware. Mance strikes me as fairly observant/astute, he would have seen Arya at least at the same feast he observed Jon, and Arya is known to have the Stark look.

Jaime knew she was false, I believe Barbery Dustin knows or very strongly suspects, and of course Theon knows. Granted, the circumstances for all three of these characters and how they are able to come to this awareness vary, but if they can all figure it out, why not Mance?

As to why Mance would risk their lives to save not-Arya, there is this:

10 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I find Mance’s character to be too honorable, too romantically heroic to be align with the evil Boltons. I mean, if Rowan can't stomach Theon using the Stark words, how could The Mance side with Ramsay? Or maybe you think he changed his mind after he got there?

Ramsay is a monster, leaving the girl with him is sentencing her to a (hopefully short) lifetime of cruelty and abuse. Rescuing her regardless of her identity is something that could appeal to Jon's altruistic side as well as Mance's. 

I do think the rescue of Arya is just the means to an end, and both Mel and Mance had an ulterior motive in sending Mance to Winterfell, although I am not sure their motives are the same. I think it is likely Rowan is the missing Umber, and Mance and the spearwives are working with the Uncles Umber. Whoresbane studied at the Citadel, yet he has been signing Ramsay's letters with a crude drawing of a giant, the mark of an illiterate man. Either he was at the Citadel an exceedingly short amount of time before his little incident or he's playing some other game; then there is Mors's drumming and horn blowing, which certainly seems more like a means to convey messages than any sort of military tactic. The spearwives are another oddity - when the plan was described to Jon, the spearwives were six young, beautiful women, but of the women who arrive at Winterfell, only two are young and none are beautiful. 

[aryagonnakill#2]

11 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I am not sure. Do you think he does? I don't think so. Why would he sacrifice himself and his spear wives to save Jeyne Poole (poor Jeyne)? 

Whether she is the real Arya or not, one could reasonably assume that the Boltons would have to send troops out to go after her, weakening the castles defenses.  

[Lost Melnibonean]

12 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Whether she is the real Arya or not, one could reasonably assume that the Boltons would have to send troops out to go after her, weakening the castles defenses.  

Good. Very good. 

[Clegane'sPup]

Jon tells Stannis that The Mance can bind the wildlings to him. Stannis says he has spent hours talking with The Mance. Stannis tells Jon that The Mance will burn. (c.3) I am not sure if Stannis was in on the glamour plan or not.

The wrong-way rangers take off south down the Kingsroad. Jon thinks that Horpe & Massey may be acting as messengers or envoys. (c.7) I presume they went to talk with Mors Umber. Karstark had already pledged allegiance to Stannis by raven (c.3)

Massey & Thorpe return and Jon is summoned to a meeting with Stannis.  Sigorn and the glamoured Mance were also in attendance. Stannis makes a gift of Mance/Rattleshirt to Jon. (c.17) As I said I don’t know if Stannis was in on the switch/glamour of the burning.

My assumption that Horpe & Massey went to Last Hearth is because of what was required for Mors/Crowsfood allegiance: Mance’s skull & a pardon for Whoresbane (c.17).   Whoresbane studied at the Citadel, which implies he knows how to read and write. Whoresbane the one who has been making the mark of a giant on the Bolton letters flying around.

Stannis says Karstark wants him to attack Dreadfort. There is talk of Mors only daughter being taken by wildlings. Jon talks Stannis into wooing the northern clans and taking Deepwood, etc (c.17). The last man to leave the meeting/council was Mance/Rattleshirt. Mance has been privy to all of the discussion.

(c.21) Stannis has left the Wall.

(c.28) Mance/Ratleshirt challenges Jon in the yard. Mance pretty much beats Jon’s arse and it is revealed that The Mance could have killed Jon Snow: "My lord," said Iron Emmett, "he threatened your life, we all heard. He said that if he had a dagger—" "He does have a dagger. Right there on his belt."

Jon receives the letter from Bolton summoning all leal lords to Barrowton for the wedding. Again Mance/Rattleshirt  is privy to the information. Remember Stannis back in (c.17) gave Jon a gift of Manec/Rattleshirt. Mels seems to try to seduce Jon, and confuses Ghost. She tells Jon about her vision about a grey girl on a dying horse trying to flee her marriage (c.28).

Move on to the Mel chapter (31). She sends for Mance. Keep in mind he was privy to the council meeting, he has been gifted to Jon, he knows the wedding is to take place at Barrowton. He asks ,”Did your fires show you where to find this girl?”

He frowned. "That will make it difficult. She was coming north, you said. Was the lake to her east or to her west?"

Melisandre closed her eyes, remembering. "West."

Mel introduces Jon to Mance/Rattleshirt saying that Mance/Rattleshirt can help Jon’s sister. "Our false king has a prickly manner," Melisandre told Jon Snow, "but he will not betray you. We hold his son, remember. And he owes you his very life." "Me?" Snow sounded startled. "Who else, my lord? Only his life's blood could pay for his crimes, your laws said, and Stannis Baratheon is not a man to go against the law … but as you said so sagely, the laws of men end at the Wall.

I’m kinda back at the beginning. Did Stannis know about Mel’s glamour of Mance/Rattleshirt?

(c.32) Roose decides to move the wedding to WF.

(c.35) Jon receives letter from Stannis saying Roose is moving to WF and there marry his bastard to your half sister. We march against him. Arnolf Karstark and Mors Umber will join us.

 (c.35) A grey girl on a dying horse, fleeing from her marriage. On the strength of those words he had loosed Mance Rayder and six spearwives on the north. "Young ones, and pretty," Mance had said. The unburnt king supplied some names, and Dolorous Edd had done the rest, smuggling them from Mole's Town.

 

The thing of it is, unless I have missed something, which is entirely possible, I don’t know when Mance left the wall to go on his rescue mission. Nor do I know how Mance knew how to travel to WF. Help would be appreciated.