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What did Melisandre and the Mance have in mind?


Lost Melnibonean

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6 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

True, are you arguing he knew, or just making a point?  I would argue that he felt true remorse about Renly and that may have only strengthened his resolve on his moral issues.

I was suggesting that we should not assume that Stannis would refuse to spare the Mance by sorcery despite his reputation for enforcing the law with an iron will. If he had a need to use The Mance and Melisandre advised him how he could do it, based on what we've seen before, his character could allow it. 

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29 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Misleading?  He sent a letter to the Eyrie proposing a match between Shireen and Robert Aryn, what part about that is misleading?

He didn't do that. Alester tried sending a letter to Tywin promising their surrender in exchange for having their lands restored to them, and Shireen would be wed to Tommen to provide the Lannisters with a hostage. It had nothing to do with the Eyrie or getting Stannis an alliance.

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15 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

No. Stannis does not know about the glamour. I think this is Mel's first real defiance "against" or away from Stannis... she does this without his permission or knowledge.

You mentioned the glamour. Does Mance still have the ruby on his wrist? Maybe this could be a reason why he first sets out doing what Mel asked. but then along the way he removes it and it's then that his motives change. For some reason the search site is frozen (or something) so I cannot verify if Theon/Reek ever sees a ruby on Mance. That is something that would stick out on a singing bael.

I could find no evidence of whether or not the black iron fetter that housed the ruby is still on Mance’s wrist while he is in WF.  Theon does describe Abel as, “The singer's beard was brown, though his long hair had largely gone to grey.”

I would assume that Mel removed Mance’s bracelet before he left the Wall. Assumptions don’t count for much though.

More interesting to me is that Mance told Theon, "Lord Stannis is outside the walls, and not far by the sound of it. All we need do is reach him." I wonder why Mance thought that.  

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5 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I was suggesting that we should not assume that Stannis would refuse to spare the Mance by sorcery despite his reputation for enforcing the law with an iron will. If he had a need to use The Mance and Melisandre advised him how he could do it, based on what we've seen before, his character could allow it. 

I would agree with that especially since Mel told Jon, "Our false king has a prickly manner," Melisandre told Jon Snow, "but he will not betray you. We hold his son, remember. And he owes you his very life." "Me?" Snow sounded startled. "Who else, my lord? Only his life's blood could pay for his crimes, your laws said, and Stannis Baratheon is not a man to go against the law … but as you said so sagely, the laws of men end at the Wall.

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  • 3 months later...

In another topic, the Mance's search of the graves in Frost fangs came up, and it made me wonder whether that was why he was so bent on getting into the crypts at Winterfell? Maybe he sacrificed so much to rescue a fake Arya just to divert attention from him going into the crypts? 

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56 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

In another topic, the Mance's search of the graves in Frost fangs came up, and it made me wonder whether that was why he was so bent on getting into the crypts at Winterfell? Maybe he sacrificed so much to rescue a fake Arya just to divert attention from him going into the crypts? 

Could be. What say the Horn of Joramun is another of the tales that are told. If the Mance was actually looking for the horn that could bring down the Wall would it be possible he wants to get his hands on it before someone or something else does?

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On 10 June 2016 at 6:30 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

In another topic, the Mance's search of the graves in Frost fangs came up, and it made me wonder whether that was why he was so bent on getting into the crypts at Winterfell? Maybe he sacrificed so much to rescue a fake Arya just to divert attention from him going into the crypts? 

I think you're right. Mance seems to be very knowledgeable on legend so he may be aware of a legend of something in the crypts (such as the horn or a secret tunnel) that others have long forgotten.  Also his parallels with Bael the bard seem to hint to him hiding in the crypts.

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  • 6 months later...
On 2/26/2016 at 5:06 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Apparently, Melisandre wanted Jon to send Mance to rescue his sister in order to gain Jon’s trust, but the especially curious issue here was that Melisandre saw Arya riding north, east of Long Lake, and Mance said he had a ploy in mind, asking for a handful of spearwives to help him, suggesting he knew that he would be going to Winterfell not the eastern shore of Long Lake. Later we found out with the arrival of Alys Karstark at Castle Black, that Mance did not even bother to look for Arya, and Jon began to suspect that Melisandre had some other task for Mance. He ended up thinking about Melisandre’s secret agenda at least twice more.

Disguised as Abel, an echo of Mance’s hero, Bael the Bard, the Mance wanted to know how Theon captured Winterfell. Clearly, Mance was attempting to find some way for Stannis to capture Winterfell. He also wanted Theon to show him the crypts. While Mance was apparently unable to find some way for Stannis to capture Winterfell by some trick, his spearwives began murdering men to fan the flames of animosity between House Frey and the Northmen, especially House Manderly. Presumably, Mance intended to hide in the crypts as Bael had done.

But why was Mance so eager, desperate even, to help the presumed Arya to escape? He did not seem to care about Theon, but he needed Theon to get the presumed Arya out. Did he believe that he had stumbled upon Arya Stark at Winterfell, and that he needed to get her out of the castle to fulfill Melisandre’s vision to foster good relations with Jon and to promote fidelity between the Free Folk and the North? Is that why he apparently sacrificed himself to free the presumed Arya? Theon was quite convinced that Abel would be caught and flayed by Ramsay, and that fate was apparently confirmed in the pink letter

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Interestingly, one of the spearwives, Rowan, seemed to hold Theon in great contempt. This alone would not have been suspect, but she also took great umbrage at Theon’s use of House Stark’s words, suggesting she was actually a daughter of the North rather than a native of the Free Folk, although there did seem to be a grudging respect of, or awe for, House Stark among the Free Folk. Rowan, tall and skinny, too lean and leathery to be called pretty, but attractive with auburn hair, could very well have been the daughter Mors lost during a wilding raid. Perhaps Mance stoped at Last Hearth with Rowam on his way to Winterfell. Perhaps Rowan convinced her father that he should not be demanding Mance’s skull for a drinking cup after all. Mors later arrived at Winterfell. He did not attack, but he started blowing war horns, presumably to instill fear in the defenders, but possibly to alert agents on the inside, and notice that was precisely when Mance decided it was time to bug out.

The Dornishman's Wife foreshadowed Abel's fate. 

The Mance. What an enigma. I’ve often wondered why he seems so interested in Starks.

I gotta start somewhere so I’ll start with Theon thinking about Abel:

Quote

 

A Dance with Dragons - The Prince of Winterfell

The hall was blessedly warm and bright with torchlight, as crowded as he had ever seen it. Theon let the heat wash over him, then made his way toward the front of the hall. Men sat crammed knee to knee along the benches, so tightly packed that the servers had to squirm between them. Even the knights and lords above the salt enjoyed less space than usual.

Up near the dais, Abel was plucking at his lute and singing "Fair Maids of Summer." He calls himself a bard. In truth he's more a pander. Lord Manderly had brought musicians from White Harbor, but none were singers, so when Abel turned up at the gates with a lute and six women, he had been made welcome. "Two sisters, two daughters, one wife, and my old mother," the singer claimed, though not one looked like him. "Some dance, some sing, one plays the pipe and one the drums. Good washerwomen too." Bard or pander, Abel's voice was passable, his playing fair. Here amongst the ruins, that was as much as anyone might expect.

 

Whatever her reasons Lady Dustin in the Turncloak chapter wants into the crypts. Theon obliges her.

In Ghost of WF the 1st man (a Rsywell) turns up dead. The snow from the night before had buried him. He had been found near the inner wall and Theon wonders why someone would climb the slick steps to piss from the top of the battlement. Theon wanders around WF taking note of the condition of the WF gates.

Later in the Hall while at supper Holly tells Theon she wants to see the crypts. It doesn’t happen.

Next morning the 2nd dead man is found in the old castle lichyard (according to Bran the lichyard lies in the shadow of The First Keep).This second man was a Frey squire. Before the day was up the 3rd body is found in the stables with a broken skull (a Flynt man).

There is quarreling in the Hall. It is mentioned that of late scouts go out the Hunter’s Gate but of late none are returning.

That night the stable collapsed killing 26 horses and 2 grooms. Chalk that up to the heavy snow. The next morning after the stable had been dug out dead man #4 Yellow Dick is found outside the kitchens.

Later in the day Theon goes into the Hall. One of the things He notices is Luton & Skinner throwing dice.

After leaving the Hall to go on his walkabout he happens upon a man striding in the opposite direction, a hooded cloak flapping behind him. He later goes to his chamber and then is summoned to come to Roose.

Reek is questioned. He is allowed to go free and starts wandering around again. He hears the sound of a horn. No sooner had the warhorn sound died away the drum began to beat. Boom doom. The sound seemed to be coming from the wolfwood beyond Hunter’s Gate. That’s the gate the scouts had been using.

Theon goes to the heart tree. Holly, Rowan and Mrytle show up saying Abel is waiting. I gotta think the horn & the drum were some sort of signal. The end of the chapter.

 

Starting in Theon I:  Day had stole upon them. The sound of drums faded away. The warhorns were heard thrice more. People start showing up at the Hall for breakfast. Theon thinks about the conversation he had had with The Mance. Eventually Mance says, “ Lord Stannis is outside the walls, and not far by the sound of it. All we have to do is reach him.

More importantly it is this chapter that reveals Theon had met with Mance at the Burned Tower, also known as the broken tower which is located near the First Keep (gargoyles atop) which is located near the crypts. When Ramsey put WF to torch the interior of the First Keep burned and part of it crumbled.

Bran in GoT describes just how close the broken/Burned Tower and The First Keep are.

Quote

 

A Game of Thrones - Bran II

The best way was to start from the godswood, shinny up the tall sentinel, and cross over the armory and the guards hall, leaping roof to roof, barefoot so the guards wouldn't hear you overhead. That brought you up to the blind side of the First Keep, the oldest part of the castle, a squat round fortress that was taller than it looked. Only rats and spiders lived there now but the old stones still made for good climbing. You could go straight up to where the gargoyles leaned out blindly over empty space, and swing from gargoyle to gargoyle, hand over hand, around to the north side. From there, if you really stretched, you could reach out and pull yourself over to the broken tower where it leaned close. The last part was the scramble up the blackened stones to the eyrie, no more than ten feet, and then the crows would come round to see if you'd brought any corn. Bran was moving from gargoyle to gargoyle with the ease of long practice when he heard the voices. He was so startled he almost lost his grip. The First Keep had been empty all his life.

 

Hosteen shows up with the dead Walder kid. Rowan tells Theon it wasn’t their work and Mance tells her to be quite. It is said the body of the Walder kid had been found under the ruined keep, the one with the gargoyles (The First Keep).

BW puts the blame on White Harbor men because of dicing. The Bastard boys also dice as noted by Theon in Ghost of WF. Anyway, the fight breaks out. Roose tells White Harbor  & Frey men to mount up. The rescue of fAya begins and the rest is history so to speak.

One last thing about Mance.

Quote

 

A Dance with Dragons - Theon I

"Enough," roared Lord Ramsay, brandishing his bloody spear. "Another threat, and I'll gut you all myself. My lord father has spoken! Save your wroth for the pretender Stannis."

Roose Bolton gave an approving nod. "As he says. There will be time enough to fight each other once we are done with Stannis." He turned his head, his pale cold eyes searching the hall until they found the bard Abel beside Theon. "Singer," he called, "come sing us something soothing."

Abel bowed. "If it please your lordship." Lute in hand, he sauntered to the dais, hopping nimbly over a corpse or two, and seated himself cross-legged on the high table. As he began to play—a sad, soft song that Theon Greyjoy did not recognize—Ser Hosteen, Ser Aenys, and their fellow Freys turned away to lead their horses from the hall.

 

All is not lost though because there is a lord’s door at the back of the Hall and Mance sitting atop of the high table has a perfect view of the room and an exit to his back. The Mance has been to WF at least twice before this. He is tricksy and cunning.

Trying to tie my yammering to your original post. Mance could very well have been in the crypts at some point during his visit to WF this time around. Dustin's men had cleared the openning, although the snow storm may have covered it again. If Mance has his own private agenda, I haven't been privy to it. Yet. Iffin I want to get cracked pottery I could say that when Stannis had his tete a tete with Mance before and after the burning of Rattleshirt it had been Stannis’ plan all along that Mance would go to WF one way or another. When Jon convinced Stannis' to take Deepwood instead of going to DF, Mance wasn't in the room but Stannis' red witch was. Chatter off.

 

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7 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

The Mance. What an enigma. I’ve often wondered why he seems so interested in Starks.

I gotta start somewhere so I’ll start with Theon thinking about Abel:

Whatever her reasons Lady Dustin in the Turncloak chapter wants into the crypts. Theon obliges her.

In Ghost of WF the 1st man (a Rsywell) turns up dead. The snow from the night before had buried him. He had been found near the inner wall and Theon wonders why someone would climb the slick steps to piss from the top of the battlement. Theon wanders around WF taking note of the condition of the WF gates.

Later in the Hall while at supper Holly tells Theon she wants to see the crypts. It doesn’t happen.

Next morning the 2nd dead man is found in the old castle lichyard (according to Bran the lichyard lies in the shadow of The First Keep).This second man was a Frey squire. Before the day was up the 3rd body is found in the stables with a broken skull (a Flynt man).

There is quarreling in the Hall. It is mentioned that of late scouts go out the Hunter’s Gate but of late none are returning.

That night the stable collapsed killing 26 horses and 2 grooms. Chalk that up to the heavy snow. The next morning after the stable had been dug out dead man #4 Yellow Dick is found outside the kitchens.

Later in the day Theon goes into the Hall. One of the things He notices is Luton & Skinner throwing dice.

After leaving the Hall to go on his walkabout he happens upon a man striding in the opposite direction, a hooded cloak flapping behind him. He later goes to his chamber and then is summoned to come to Roose.

Reek is questioned. He is allowed to go free and starts wandering around again. He hears the sound of a horn. No sooner had the warhorn sound died away the drum began to beat. Boom doom. The sound seemed to be coming from the wolfwood beyond Hunter’s Gate. That’s the gate the scouts had been using.

Theon goes to the heart tree. Holly, Rowan and Mrytle show up saying Abel is waiting. I gotta think the horn & the drum were some sort of signal. The end of the chapter.

 

 

Starting in Theon I:  Day had stole upon them. The sound of drums faded away. The warhorns were heard thrice more. People start showing up at the Hall for breakfast. Theon thinks about the conversation he had had with The Mance. Eventually Mance says, “ Lord Stannis is outside the walls, and not far by the sound of it. All we have to do is reach him.

More importantly it is this chapter that reveals Theon had met with Mance at the Burned Tower, also known as the broken tower which is located near the First Keep (gargoyles atop) which is located near the crypts. When Ramsey put WF to torch the interior of the First Keep burned and part of it crumbled.

Bran in GoT describes just how close the broken/Burned Tower and The First Keep are.

Hosteen shows up with the dead Walder kid. Rowan tells Theon it wasn’t their work and Mance tells her to be quite. It is said the body of the Walder kid had been found under the ruined keep, the one with the gargoyles (The First Keep).

BW puts the blame on White Harbor men because of dicing. The Bastard boys also dice as noted by Theon in Ghost of WF. Anyway, the fight breaks out. Roose tells White Harbor  & Frey men to mount up. The rescue of fAya begins and the rest is history so to speak.

One last thing about Mance.

All is not lost though because there is a lord’s door at the back of the Hall and Mance sitting atop of the high table has a perfect view of the room and an exit to his back. The Mance has been to WF at least twice before this. He is tricksy and cunning.

Trying to tie my yammering to your original post. Mance could very well have been in the crypts at some point during his visit to WF this time around. Dustin's men had cleared the openning, although the snow storm may have covered it again. If Mance has his own private agenda, I haven't been privy to it. Yet. Iffin I want to get cracked pottery I could say that when Stannis had his tete a tete with Mance before and after the burning of Rattleshirt it had been Stannis’ plan all along that Mance would go to WF one way or another. When Jon convinced Stannis' to take Deepwood instead of going to DF, Mance wasn't in the room but Stannis' red witch was. Chatter off.

 

 

I have trouble seeing how the Mance gets out of his current predicament, but @sweetsunray makes a logical argument that the Mance could have had the opportunity to steal away to the crypts in the confusion. 

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  • 2 months later...
Quote

"This is farewell, then," she said, almost playfully.

Jon Snow was in no mood for it. It is too cold and dark to play, and the hour is too late. "Only for a time. You will return. For the boy, if for no other reason."

"Craster's son?" Val shrugged. "He is no kin to me."

"I have heard you singing to him."

"I was singing to myself. Am I to blame if he listens?" A faint smile brushed her lips. "It makes him laugh. Oh, very well. He is a sweet little monster."

"Monster?"

"His milk name. I had to call him something. See that he stays safe and warm. For his mother's sake, and mine. And keep him away from the red woman. She knows who he is. She sees things in her fires."

Arya, he thought, hoping it was so. "Ashes and cinders."

"Kings and dragons."

Dragons again. For a moment Jon could almost see them too, coiling in the night, their dark wings outlined against a sea of flame. "If she knew, she would have taken the boy away from us. Dalla's boy, not your monster. A word in the king's ear would have been the end of it." And of me. Stannis would have taken it for treason. "Why let it happen if she knew?"

"Because it suited her. Fire is a fickle thing. No one knows which way a flame will go."

Jon VIII, Dance 39

Does Melisandre know that Jon switched the babies? 

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2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Jon VIII, Dance 39

Does Melisandre know that Jon switched the babies? 

I think you hit the nail on the head with that quote. She sees things in her fires. Based on Mance's self proclaimed skills at climbing walls and through windows I believe we have to assume Val could know everything Mance knows, and Mance could know everything. Between hearing the letter after sparring with Jon and being in the war council room with stannis Mance has heard a ton, and that's not even including what he could have overheard while sneaking that we don't know about. Mance and Val both most likely know there was a baby swap.

I have also come to believe Stannis fully knows Mance is alive. Some would say he's too honorable but that's not true. He justifies the means to his ends through any excuse necessary. Blood magic, burning people alive, wanting to sacrifice his nephew, killing his brother. He has excuses for all of them sure, but he's still shitty. And we haven't even seen if Shireen goes up in flames yet.

The quote about Mance's beard is evidence that he has lost the glamour in WF. Mel was under the impression she could control him when he had the ruby on but I think she was wrong. He was still climbing through windows, still hatching certain ploys, and was able to take the cuffs off after leaving the wall. There's little to suggest Mel has or had any control over Mance.

Mance overheard a ton of info specific to the umbers. I think going to the last hearth was one of the first things he did after leaving CB and there he found out about the wedding. The Umbers were promised Mance's skull, so him showing up would show how Stannis was screwing them. Him having Rowan to vouch for his character would go a far way as well.

 

Then we have the horn blowing outside of the wall coordinating with the escape attempt. Mance is quick to tell Theon the horns are Stannis's. We all know that Mance knows that Stannis uses Trumpets, not horns. The trumpets were a noticeable part of him getting massacred north of the wall. Him quickly having an excuse for the horns and saying it's Stannis suggests he know's the horns aren't Stannis's but is trying to cover it up.

WF is a hornet's nest ready to explode. Most of the people there don't like each other or the Boltons. The cause that has the biggest support would be the north's sense of loyalty to the Starks, even though it's only a fake arya stark that's there. The northern houses who still have some loyalty to the starks (Manderly's and Umbers) can't do anything as they are having to pretend to be loyal to the Boltons out of self preservation. Uniting the northern houses would really not be that difficult for Mance. Especially if he were going around promising that he could get Jon back to WF to be King. Some other hints of Rowan being an Umber that I haven't seen mentioned on this thread yet are that she has leathery skin which is how other umbers are described and that she calls theon "kinslayer", An Umber and the hooded man are the only other people to do so.

So between Rowan lining up so well as an umber and Mance already declaring he has a ploy in mind I am confident that Mance's ploy does involve Rowan and that he's working with the Umbers now.

If the PL is true and Mance is captured, that whole ploy never came to fruition at all. Good news though, we have little reason to think the PL is true. Most of it is just a parallel of the "Mance" execution at the wall. Pretty damn poetic.

Further supporting Mance being okay is the one washerwoman who says, "Abel can fend for himself". This would be an irrational statement unless she knows  something we don't, like what Mance's plan is. Then we have Abel responding to Roose with, "If it please your lordship" and taking a seat at the high table. Earlier Reek tells us about how he muddles up the words to please lord Bolton. Then we have Abel speaking proper as shit and placing himself in a very symbolic seat. On top of the high table being symbolic of power and ruling, we also know that it serves a functional reason for mance to be there, with the lords exit so close. Sounds like an awesome plan to me.

So Mance is still a cool customer as the final stages of his plan are unfolding, suggesting that everything is still going as planned. We have a lot of evidence that he is coordinating with the Umbers and we know that the Manderly's would more than likely be willing to cooperate with a Bolton/Frey overthrow. The Umbers and Manderlys would not want to follow the Boltons or Stannis, but they could be united under a Stark king. North of the wall would be one of the hardest places to unite through politics, yet Mance does it. So we know he has the skills to treat with the umbers and manderly's and form alliances. The more power Jon has, the more Mance and the wildlings benefit, so he does have a good reason to unite the north behind Jon.

Some have discussed if Mance knew Arya was fake and if so why did he do it. I agree with those who say that yes he knew it wasn't Arya, but he still chose to do it. Partly because he's a good guy and that was a girl being tortured, and partly because the Bolton's losing Theon and Arya is devestating to them. Ramsay is gonna freak out and act irrational, the other northern houses are going to judge them as weak for losing them both and a lot of the reason the northern houses were playing nice in the first place was to look after Arya. If she's gone they can follow through with taking over WF without worrying about a Stark hostage.

One final note, GRRM says Theon's TWOW chapter takes place before SOME of the chapters at the end of aDwD. Though Jon gets the PL at the end of aDwD, that does not mean it is one of the chapters that happened after Theon I. I think we have to be open to it happening before or after.

Please let me know what you think, this is one of my favorite topics in asoiaf.

 

 

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