What did Melisandre and the Mance have in mind?

[Slowpoke Martin]

Mance entered Winterfell as part of Manderly's entourage not sure how that plays into it.

[Lost Melnibonean]

3 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Jon tells Stannis that The Mance can bind the wildlings to him. Stannis says he has spent hours talking with The Mance. Stannis tells Jon that The Mance will burn. (c.3) I am not sure if Stannis was in on the glamour plan or not.

The wrong-way rangers take off south down the Kingsroad. Jon thinks that Horpe & Massey may be acting as messengers or envoys. (c.7) I presume they went to talk with Mors Umber. Karstark had already pledged allegiance to Stannis by raven (c.3)

Massey & Thorpe return and Jon is summoned to a meeting with Stannis.  Sigorn and the glamoured Mance were also in attendance. Stannis makes a gift of Mance/Rattleshirt to Jon. (c.17) As I said I don’t know if Stannis was in on the switch/glamour of the burning.

My assumption that Horpe & Massey went to Last Hearth is because of what was required for Mors/Crowsfood allegiance: Mance’s skull & a pardon for Whoresbane (c.17).   Whoresbane studied at the Citadel, which implies he knows how to read and write. Whoresbane the one who has been making the mark of a giant on the Bolton letters flying around.

Stannis says Karstark wants him to attack Dreadfort. There is talk of Mors only daughter being taken by wildlings. Jon talks Stannis into wooing the northern clans and taking Deepwood, etc (c.17). The last man to leave the meeting/council was Mance/Rattleshirt. Mance has been privy to all of the discussion.

(c.21) Stannis has left the Wall.

(c.28) Mance/Ratleshirt challenges Jon in the yard. Mance pretty much beats Jon’s arse and it is revealed that The Mance could have killed Jon Snow: "My lord," said Iron Emmett, "he threatened your life, we all heard. He said that if he had a dagger—" "He does have a dagger. Right there on his belt."

Jon receives the letter from Bolton summoning all leal lords to Barrowton for the wedding. Again Mance/Rattleshirt  is privy to the information. Remember Stannis back in (c.17) gave Jon a gift of Manec/Rattleshirt. Mels seems to try to seduce Jon, and confuses Ghost. She tells Jon about her vision about a grey girl on a dying horse trying to flee her marriage (c.28).

Move on to the Mel chapter (31). She sends for Mance. Keep in mind he was privy to the council meeting, he has been gifted to Jon, he knows the wedding is to take place at Barrowton. He asks ,”Did your fires show you where to find this girl?”

He frowned. "That will make it difficult. She was coming north, you said. Was the lake to her east or to her west?"

Melisandre closed her eyes, remembering. "West."

Mel introduces Jon to Mance/Rattleshirt saying that Mance/Rattleshirt can help Jon’s sister. "Our false king has a prickly manner," Melisandre told Jon Snow, "but he will not betray you. We hold his son, remember. And he owes you his very life." "Me?" Snow sounded startled. "Who else, my lord? Only his life's blood could pay for his crimes, your laws said, and Stannis Baratheon is not a man to go against the law … but as you said so sagely, the laws of men end at the Wall.

I’m kinda back at the beginning. Did Stannis know about Mel’s glamour of Mance/Rattleshirt?

(c.32) Roose decides to move the wedding to WF.

(c.35) Jon receives letter from Stannis saying Roose is moving to WF and there marry his bastard to your half sister. We march against him. Arnolf Karstark and Mors Umber will join us.

 (c.35) A grey girl on a dying horse, fleeing from her marriage. On the strength of those words he had loosed Mance Rayder and six spearwives on the north. "Young ones, and pretty," Mance had said. The unburnt king supplied some names, and Dolorous Edd had done the rest, smuggling them from Mole's Town.

 

The thing of it is, unless I have missed something, which is entirely possible, I don’t know when Mance left the wall to go on his rescue mission. Nor do I know how Mance knew how to travel to WF. Help would be appreciated.

 

This might help...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZsY3lcDDtTdBWp1Gx6mfkdtZT6-Gk0kdTGeSC_Dj7WM/htmlview#gid=8

[Clegane'sPup]

Quote

Apparently, Melisandre wanted Jon to send Mance to rescue his sister in order to gain Jon’s trust, but the especially curious issue here was that Melisandre saw Arya riding north, east of Long Lake, <snip>

Yes, LM the timeline doc might help. Thanks. As you can see the lake was to the west not the east.

He frowned. "That will make it difficult. She was coming north, you said. Was the lake to her east or to her west?"

Melisandre closed her eyes, remembering. "West."

Do you have any idea as to when Mance left the Wall? Did Mance leave the Wall after Bolton's letter or after Stannis' letter. Kinda makes a difference.

[The Fattest Leech]

On 2/27/2016 at 3:32 PM, Clegane'sPup said:

~snipped~

I’m kinda back at the beginning. Did Stannis know about Mel’s glamour of Mance/Rattleshirt?

~snipped~

No. Stannis does not know about the glamour. I think this is Mel's first real defiance "against" or away from Stannis... she does this without his permission or knowledge.

You mentioned the glamour. Does Mance still have the ruby on his wrist? Maybe this could be a reason why he first sets out doing what Mel asked. but then along the way he removes it and it's then that his motives change. For some reason the search site is frozen (or something) so I cannot verify if Theon/Reek ever sees a ruby on Mance. That is something that would stick out on a singing bael.

~~~

I am editing this way, way late in the thread game because after reading some other clues and ideas, I have come to realize that there is a strong possibility that Stannis may actually know that Melisandre glamoured Mance and Mance is on his way to Winterfell.

Carry on.

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Yes, LM the timeline doc might help. Thanks. As you can see the lake was to the west not the east.

He frowned. "That will make it difficult. She was coming north, you said. Was the lake to her east or to her west?"

Melisandre closed her eyes, remembering. "West."

Do you have any idea as to when Mance left the Wall? Did Mance leave the Wall after Bolton's letter or after Stannis' letter. Kinda makes a difference.

Check the last post on this page here. Does that help at all? 

[Lord Wraith]

14 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Why would freeing Theon be the goal? 

Only part of the goal. There are little hints that Manderly/Glover is working with the Ironborn via Wex.  How else did he learn of Rickon's location in Skagos? The Ironborn need Theon back to invalidate Euron's kingsmoot as per Haereg, House Glovers wants the hostages that the Ironborn took when they took Deepwood Motte.

Not sure what role Tycho is playing but he seems to be helping to facilitate these transactions. After all he got the Ironborn hostages.  Also Dagmer Cleftjaw is still in Torren's Square and I am sure he has a role to play in all of this.

https://cantuse.wordpress.com/2014/09/30/the-mannifesto/ Cantuse wrote a bit about this and several others.

[Neds Secret]

58 minutes ago, The Fattest Leech said:

No. Stannis does not know about the glamour. I think this is Mel's first real defiance "against" or away from Stannis... she does this without his permission or knowledge.

You mentioned the glamour. Does Mance still have the ruby on his wrist? Maybe this could be a reason why he first sets out doing what Mel asked. but then along the way he removes it and it's then that his motives change. For some reason the search site is frozen (or something) so I cannot verify if Theon/Reek ever sees a ruby on Mance. That is something that would stick out on a singing bael.

How do you know for sure that Stannis doesn't know about the glamour and that Mel did it without his knowledge or permission? Would this be treason do you think?

[The Fattest Leech]

Just now, Neds Secret said:

How do you know for sure that Stannis doesn't know about the glamour and that Mel did itbwithoutbhisnknowledge or permission? Would this be treason do you think?

This is gonna sound weird but just as I wrote that and wanted to find the quote on the ASOIAF search to add, something in my computer or internet connection started going weird. I am getting triple emails and old emails like every two minutes??? My tv is blinking in and out now too. The search site is "frozen" half filled out and it won't let me change anything. I was just explaining this to someone on another thread.

Anyway... my backup is the wiki (if it works), but I know some don't take that as word. Right now it's the best I can do. Sorry.

Melisandre keeps the secret from Stannis due to Stannis's strict code of following the law.

[Neds Secret]

5 minutes ago, The Fattest Leech said:

This is gonna sound weird but just as I wrote that and wanted to find the quote on the ASOIAF search to add, something in my computer or internet connection started going weird. I am getting triple emails and old emails like every two minutes??? My tv is blinking in and out now too. The search site is "frozen" half filled out and it won't let me change anything. I was just explaining this to someone on another thread.

Anyway... my backup is the wiki (if it works), but I know some don't take that as word. Right now it's the best I can do. Sorry.

Melisandre keeps the secret from Stannis due to Stannis's strict code of following the law.

Perhaps it's red rhollor protecting his secrets? Lol

[The Fattest Leech]

On 2/27/2016 at 11:33 PM, Neds Secret said:

Perhaps it's red rhollor protecting his secrets? Lol

I ain't got time for the Red Rha'loo

[Lost Melnibonean]

47 minutes ago, Lord Wraith said:

Only part of the goal. There are little hints that Manderly/Glover is working with the Ironborn via Wex.  How else did he learn of Rickon's location in Skagos? The Ironborn need Theon back to invalidate Euron's kingsmoot as per Haereg, House Glovers wants the hostages that the Ironborn took when they took Deepwood Motte.

Not sure what role Tycho is playing but he seems to be helping to facilitate these transactions. After all he got the Ironborn hostages.  Also Dagmer Cleftjaw is still in Torren's Square and I am sure he has a role to play in all of this.

https://cantuse.wordpress.com/2014/09/30/the-mannifesto/ Cantuse wrote a bit about this and several others.

I know Asha and the Reader see that, but I'm not so sure anybody else sees that yet. 

[Lord Wraith]

2 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I know Asha and the Reader see that, but I'm not so sure anybody else sees that yet. 

Perhaps but we already know the Damphair is starting his anti-Euron movement on the isles. I am sure the Reader could inform him of this. The Reader doesn't appear to have much love for Euron.  

The Ironborn have a role to play in the Battle for Winter. Its just hard to say what role. After all Stannis capture some Ironborn ships at Deepwood Motte but we haven't seen them yet. Or why he is keeping nearly 50 horses alive for some purpose. Only Winds will tell.

 

[aryagonnakill#2]

1 hour ago, Neds Secret said:

How do you know for sure that Stannis doesn't know about the glamour and that Mel did it without his knowledge or permission? Would this be treason do you think?

We know because of Stannis' character.  This is a man who interrupted his squire to demand that Jaime Lannister be changed to Ser Jaime Lannister, interrupted him again to change beloved brother to brother, that burnt his own uncle in law alive for trying to get 1 of the 9 kingdoms to swear fealty to him through marriage, who murdered his own brother, who wouldn't avert his attack on KL even tho 100%(unrealistic) of his scouts were killed, etc. etc.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Just now, aryagonnakill#2 said:

We know because of Stannis' character.  This is a man who interrupted his squire to demand that Jaime Lannister be changed to Ser Jaime Lannister, interrupted him again to change beloved brother to brother, that burnt his own uncle in law alive for trying to get 1 of the 9 kingdoms to swear fealty to him through marriage, who murdered his own brother, who wouldn't avert his attack on KL even tho 100%(unrealistic) of his scouts were killed, etc. etc.

He's also the man who slept with a witch to birth an abomination to assassinate his brother by fell sorcery and then deny his part. And then he did it again. 

[aryagonnakill#2]

Just now, Lost Melnibonean said:

He's also the man who slept with a witch to birth an abomination to assassinate his brother by fell sorcery and then deny his part. And then he did it again. 

True, are you arguing he knew, or just making a point?  I would argue that he felt true remorse about Renly and that may have only strengthened his resolve on his moral issues.

[The Drunkard]

1 hour ago, Neds Secret said:

How do you know for sure that Stannis doesn't know about the glamour and that Mel did it without his knowledge or permission? Would this be treason do you think?

"Whilst your brothers have been struggling to decide who shall lead them, I have been speaking with this Mance Rayder." He ground his teeth. "A stubborn man, that one, and prideful. He will leave me no choice but to give him to the flames. But we took other captives as well, other leaders. The one who calls himself the Lord of Bones, some of their clan chiefs, the new Magnar of Thenn. Your brothers will not like it, no more than your father's lords, but I mean to allow the wildlings through the Wall..."

My understanding is that he wanted to spare Mance initially, him being the premier leader to get the wildlings on side, but because Mance was too stubborn/prideful to bend the knee he resolved to burn him and use the sub-leaders instead. Melisandre however recognized that Mance would be useful for their cause and useful in getting Jon to trust her, so went behind Stannis' back and saved him. It wouldn't be the first time she (or Davos for that matter) went against their king for what they thought would be to his benefit. 

26 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

that burnt his own uncle in law alive for trying to get 1 of the 9 kingdoms to swear fealty to him through marriage

What?

[Lord Wraith]

19 minutes ago, The Drunkard said:

What?

Alas Alester Florent. Mel burned him for favorable winds to head to the Wall.

[The Drunkard]

2 minutes ago, Lord Wraith said:

Alas Alester Florent. Mel burned him for favorable winds to head to the Wall.

I know, I was asking about the misleading spin put on the reasoning for his burning. 

[Daemon Blackfyre IV]

On 2/26/2016 at 6:24 PM, GwynBleiddRaven said:

Can you provide the source for confirmation of Theon TWOW chapter happening before pink letter?

My idea is that indeed Mel send Mance mainly to gather intel and find a way to capture Winterfell.

But Mance has apparently his own agenda too. I think he wanted to save Arya to return the greatest favor anybody could give him: saving his son. Which Jon did by switching Gilly's and Mances babies and I think Mance knows it.

how could Mance know that Jon switched the babies ?

[Daemon Blackfyre IV]

On 2/26/2016 at 6:24 PM, GwynBleiddRaven said:

On 2/27/2016 at 11:51 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

I find Mance’s character to be too honorable, too romantically heroic to be align with the evil Boltons. I mean, if Rowan can't stomach Theon using the Stark words, how could The Mance side with Ramsay? Or maybe you think he changed his mind after he got there?

Betraying Jon and Stannis would mean his sons life i can't see him doing this