US Election: I could never get the hang of Tuesdays

[Fez]

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

BR,

But Sec. Clinton has pretty high negatives too and the GOP turnout has been better in the primaries than the Democratic.  That trend scares me if Trump is the Republican nominee.

I used to think about that too. But then I learned that primary turnout has zero predictive ability of general election turnout. Democratic primary turnout dwarfed that of Republicans in 1980 and 1988.

[TerraPrime]

1 hour ago, Howdyphillip said:

I have something to get off my chest here. 

 I am a liberal democrat from Texas, and I voted for Bernie Sanders yesterday. It was a close decision for me because as a Presidential candidate, I think Hillary is by far the better choice, but I am fully on board with the ideologies that Sanders is addressing. 

Fist of all, I am really tired of reading on social media about how horrible Clinton is from other Bernie supporters. Sanders himself is doing nothing of the sort. I keep reading about people either voting for a third party, or even voting for Trump in some cases. 

As a lifelong Democrat, and someone who remembers well the effect that Nader had on Gore's campaign, I am just disgusted by this. I just can not believe that these self righteous progressives would be willing to see decades of achievements disappear with a Presidential term that will see at least two Supreme Court nominees.

 What really gets my goat though is when people talk about yesterday's primaries and say that Clinton just won the conservative states. I have a news flash here... The conservatives didn't vote in our primaries yesterday, and as a general rule, we are more liberal as a counter culture here than most states are when it is the primary culture.

Hillary Clinton ran a better campaign, plain and simple. Yesterday, Bernie supporters went out and voted and then hung out and argued with one another on the internet. They might have skipped the first step. Clinton supporters went out and voted, and then they drove to nursing homes, poor neighborhoods, and anywhere else the could think of and drove other people to vote.

 

 

This is me.

[TrackerNeil]

1 hour ago, Howdyphillip said:

I have something to get off my chest here. 

 I am a liberal democrat from Texas, and I voted for Bernie Sanders yesterday. It was a close decision for me because as a Presidential candidate, I think Hillary is by far the better choice, but I am fully on board with the ideologies that Sanders is addressing. 

Fist of all, I am really tired of reading on social media about how horrible Clinton is from other Bernie supporters. Sanders himself is doing nothing of the sort. I keep reading about people either voting for a third party, or even voting for Trump in some cases. 

As a lifelong Democrat, and someone who remembers well the effect that Nader had on Gore's campaign, I am just disgusted by this. I just can not believe that these self righteous progressives would be willing to see decades of achievements disappear with a Presidential term that will see at least two Supreme Court nominees.

 What really gets my goat though is when people talk about yesterday's primaries and say that Clinton just won the conservative states. I have a news flash here... The conservatives didn't vote in our primaries yesterday, and as a general rule, we are more liberal as a counter culture here than most states are when it is the primary culture.

Hillary Clinton ran a better campaign, plain and simple. Yesterday, Bernie supporters went out and voted and then hung out and argued with one another on the internet. They might have skipped the first step. Clinton supporters went out and voted, and then they drove to nursing homes, poor neighborhoods, and anywhere else the could think of and drove other people to vote.

Make that four of us.

[Balefont]

Five!

[alguien]

Six. Nice post! 

[Red Hermit]

Seven!

[Fez]

Nice post. I don't quite make eight, since ideologically I prefer Clinton over Sanders anyway.

On other nice things, Carson is kinda sorta dropping out of the race. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/03/us/politics/ben-carson.html He's not going to the debate on Thursday, and he's not going to campaign anymore, but he's not officially suspending his campaign either. I guess he/his advisors are hoping he can still raise money off his supporters. Since its a grey zone, I'm not going to quite admit being wrong yesterday that no one would drop out today.

[Altherion]

1 hour ago, BloodRider said:

Nah man.  Trumps ceiling is lower than his floor* - even within his "own party", but it gets worse for him when you look at independents, and forget about Democrats.  The numbers just don't add up.  Couple that with the fact that Clinton has proven that she turns out the black and Hispanic vote, and Bernie turns out the youth vote (albeit there as much as a numeric benefit for getting the youth to the polls) and it begins to look even more impossible for Trump to beat any Democrat.

You know, individually, statements like this make a whole lot of sense -- it most certainly does look like Trump has an impossible battle on his hands in the general election. However... if you compile a history of them starting from when he entered the race, you get something quite similar to what has appeared in multiple video games and a few films:

• Stage 1: Trump enters the race (Spring 2015). Reaction: Oh look, another one. Why do these people even bother?
• Stage 2: Trump tops the polls (Summer 2015). Reaction: There's one of these in every election. He'll flame out soon enough -- look Carson is already catching up.
• Stage 3: Trump stays on top (January 2016). Reaction: He may top the polls, but is that actually going to translate to votes? Cruz beat him in Iowa.
• Stage 4: Trump starts winning races (February 2016). Reaction: He may be winning now, but just wait until a few of the weaker candidates drop out. Trump has a ceiling of 30% and if the remaining 70% unite behind the establishment candidate, Trump has no chance.
• Stage 5: Trump wins Super Tuesday (now). Reaction: Well, it does look like he might win the nomination. But even if he does (and that is not guaranteed yet), Donald Trump will never defeat Hillary Clinton -- it's just not possible! *Cue short motif from Final Boss music*

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Altherion,

Stage 5: Trump wins Super Tuesday (now). 

Reaction:

 Well, it does look like he might win the nomination. But even if he does (and that is not guaranteed yet), Donald Trump will 

never

 defeat Hillary Clinton -- it's just not possible! *Cue short motif from Final Boss music*[/quote]

 

And that is part of what scares me about Trump.  He's being underestimated and seems to overperform every time.  

[BloodRider]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

BR,

But Sec. Clinton has pretty high negatives too and the GOP turnout has been better in the primaries than the Democratic.  That trend scares me if Trump is the Republican nominee.

Maybe, but her negatives are certainly well above her positives.  Unlike Trumps.  This can still change, to be sure, but if it doesn't, I can't see how Trump can win.  What's more, Clinton has energized the minority vote.  This comes down to turnout.  In the general, there is not much room for Reps to squeeze out more votes, the situation is better for Bernie to squeeze out that turnout.  But Clinton is getting minorities to the polls in the same way Obama did.  So she may have negatives with "probable voters", but that doesn't matter as much to her as it does to Bernie.

[Larry of the Lawn]

Trying to quote Altherion's trump progression.

Saw a meme that riffed on this idea earlier, then continued:

2017: Can you believe we have a Preisdent Trump?

2018: Hunger Games are on tonight, I hope my District wins!

[Maithanet]

There are two schools of thought amongst Democrats about Trump.  One side holds that he has little crossover appeal and will serve to strengthen democrats GOTV efforts, particularly amongst latinos.  Combine that with a generally favorable Electoral College map, and it adds up to an easy win.

The other side is that the Electoral College advantage is less of a factor in a crazy race, and Trump means this election is anything but typical.  Trump faced huge obstacles to winning the Republican nomination - no experience, poor ground game, widely unpopular, generally nonreligious, jerk.  But he is not just winning but running away with the nomination.  You simply cannot assume that the disadvantages he faces in the general are too much for him. 

According to this article, Bill Clinton is amongst the latter group. 

Quote

there are two camps: the first believes Clinton “would easily beat” Trump while the second—led by Bill—believes such conclusions ignore the reality of the past year, during which Trump has dominated the GOP race. “He’s formidable, he understands voters’ anxieties, and he will be ruthless against Hillary Clinton,” Connecticut Gov. Dannel P. Malloy told the paper. “I’ve gone from denial—‘I can’t believe anyone would listen to this guy’—to admiration, in the sense that he’s figured out how to capture everyone’s angst, to real worry.”

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Maithanet,

Group me in the latter camp as well.

[Guy Kilmore]

4 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Well that almost more than anything else.  I am old enough to remember the Ivanka Trump/Marla Maples scandals of yesteryear.  

I will set this aside to read when I have second.  Thanks Ormond. 

I read Ormond's article and it was very interesting and insightful.

[TrackerNeil]

2 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

There are two schools of thought amongst Democrats about Trump.  One side holds that he has little crossover appeal and will serve to strengthen democrats GOTV efforts, particularly amongst latinos.  Combine that with a generally favorable Electoral College map, and it adds up to an easy win.

The other side is that the Electoral College advantage is less of a factor in a crazy race, and Trump means this election is anything but typical.  Trump faced huge obstacles to winning the Republican nomination - no experience, poor ground game, widely unpopular, generally nonreligious, jerk.  But he is not just winning but running away with the nomination.  You simply cannot assume that the disadvantages he faces in the general are too much for him. 

I do feel as though Trump would be the easiest Republican to beat, and here's why. I think a Trump candidacy will tend to split the GOP, even if not very much, but a half-percent could be what puts the Democrat over the top in Florida or Ohio. I also think Trump would unite the natural Democratic constituency, unless it somehow happens that Hispanic voters are just trilled that The Donald thinks Mexicans are all rapists. I don't have data to back this up--it's too early for general election polls anyway--but that is my read.

[NestorMakhnosLovechild]

Just now, Mandy said:

Get over it.  You said yourself that you think Clinton is by far the better choice, so we simply don't agree.  I think she's despicable, and only about 5% better than Ted Cruz.  She's a liar, a cheat and, frankly, quite evil.  A whole lot of Bernie Sanders' support comes from the population who is fed up with having to vote for a lesser evil instead of someone they actually trust and want representing them.  We are disillusioned with the other politicians. And if he's not in it, we no longer give a crap, because we know her for the wolf in sheep's clothing that she is.  If that isn't clear enough for you, too bad.

 

I certainly get the frustration with having to vote for imperfect candidates in the general election. And I certainly get - and believe - that Clinton is a flawed and imperfect candidate, who has, in the past, taken and supported positions that were bad and hurtful to a lot of people. 

But the idea that she is "only about 5% better than Ted Cruz" - who is a bigoted, homophobic, anti-choice, fundamentalist religious maniac and who, if he had his way, would gut what remains of the safety net in the United States, eliminate protections for labor, forbid women from getting abortions and "carpet bomb" foreign countries - is just absolutely, bugfuck insane. 

[Fez]

The big question is: what does the Republican establishment do? If they sit out the race, or run a third-party candidate, or even start endorsing Clinton, Trump doesn't have a shot.

There were stories yesterday that an unnamed Republican senator was preparing to endorse Clinton if Trump took the nomination. That could just be heat of the moment stuff (probably from Ben Sasse), but its not the kind of thing you expect to see. There are also some neocon think-tank guys on record saying they'll endorse Clinton if she's facing Trump. 

A Trump-Clinton race will be a wild, previously unseen ride, and maybe that ends up with Trump winning, but I think there's an equally good or even better chance that Clinton ends up winning a 1964-style blowout. And there's also a good chance its more conventional than we think, the Democratic electoral firewall holds, and the race looks very similar to 2012.

[Kalbear]

Quote

I'm of the same belief that Sanders' unwillingness to stoop to mudslinging isn't just a campaign tactic or preference, but is also some kind of ingrained character trait. 

From what I've seen of his elections to get into the office of Mayor or congressman in Vermont early in his career I don't believe this to be accurate. 

[Fez]

2 minutes ago, Mandy said:

 I think they believe that a President Trump might make some people actually get off their asses and realize things really are that bad in this country.

Things are bad, so let's make them way worse?

That makes zero fucking sense.

[Kalbear]

And for those of you who would actually care to say what makes Clinton particularly evil, I'd love to hear it. Hopefully it's a bit more clear than TPWPTP's idea that saying kind words about Robert Byrd's life after he died makes her satanic. 

5% less evil than Ted Cruz, eh? The guy who wants to defund planned parenthood, stop gays from marrying or serving in the military, destroy the ACA, destroy the EPA, and firmly believes that a president should first and foremost serve God - Clinton is just a smidgen less evil than that?