If Robb didn't have to marry a Frey, who do you think he'd have married?

[OuttaOldtown]

On June 15, 2016 at 0:51 AM, LionoftheWest said:

I could see Robb marryin Alys Karstark, I can see him marrying one of Manderly's daughters and there are probably more that he can pick from. In short I see him picking a bride from the North or possible from the Vale or Riverlands given Eddard's supposed connections there.

Those would be quite possible, the only woman in the south I can think of is Myranda Royce..

[thelittledragonthatcould]

1 hour ago, OuttaOldtown said:

Those would be quite possible, the only woman in the south I can think of is Myranda Royce..

4 years older, already been married and from the lesser branch of Royce. I expect Cat would certainly veto it and I think Ned would also prefer others notably her cousin, Bronze Yohn's daughter, Ysilla who has only just been married in the series.

[estermonty python]

22 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

I don't see where I disagreed with that, but any heir of Shireen's would have the last name Baratheon not Stark. Stannis is not about to give the realm to them anymore than he was willing to marry Shireen off to Tommen.

It did. Without the Twins access he would never have been able to get to Riverrun in time to free the Riverland army. They would have fallen, in which case new hostages and oaths of fealty to the Crown would be issued and a grateful Riverlands would never have made him King.

In fact it is possible without Robb's great victories at the Camps and the Whispering Wood his own bannermen might not have been so quick to make him King of the North.

Simple cause and effect. He didn't only gain 4k Freys with that marriage pact but, indirectly, the whole of the Riverlands.

No they joined because Robb saved Riverrun and its Lords from being defeated by Jaime Lannister. A victory that would not have happened without the Freys and the access from their bridge.

It also helped that the Freys most powerful Lords in the Riverlands, with the largest army, would have been in favor of their future in-law becoming King.

I'd say they'd be just as resentful as an Old God worshipping Northman ruling them.

This seems pretty dumb, sorry. The Blackwoods were pretty much beaten at that point. If Robb married Bethany then he gets nothing. He was heavily dependent on the Freys.

Culturally it may have been better, though Robb marrying another Old God worshipper may well alienate the Andal worshipping Riverlords. Just as if Robb renounced the Old Gods and married a Manderly many of the Northern Lords would take offence.

 

Not that it matters, Robb was dependent on the Freys. Without them his war ends on either on the Green Fork or in retreat to Moat Cailin.

I think we're talking past each other.  The premise of the hypothetical, as I understood it, is "what if Robb was never expected to marry a Frey" - implying, then, that the Freys are loyal to the Tullys and lend their aid to Robb's army without extracting a pound of flesh in return.

This is one of the reasons hypotheticals like this go off the rails so easily - at a certain point none of us are even sure we are debating the same thing!  I guess I'd sum up my arguments this way:

Best strategic match for Robb to win the War: Shireen Baratheon

Best strategic match after Robb wins the war for independence: A noble girl from the Riverlands, to cement his rule over the Riverlands as well as the North.  The ones we know about are: Betha Blackwood, one of Jonos Bracken's 5 daughters, one of the 18,000 Freys (let's pick Roslin for the time being), Eleanor Mooton (now married to Dickon Tarly), and Liane Vance, the heir to Wayfarer's Rest.  Of those 5, House Mooton was the only one that did not participate in Hoster Tully's funeral procession, so we can infer from that that House Mooton is less powerful than the other vassal houses (and this is supported by the "screen time" given to the 6 Riverland houses that appear to be most powerful as of the events of the book: Blackwood, Bracken, Mallister, Piper, Frey, and Vance).  Now, there's actually a compelling case to be made that Liane Vance, who we know nothing about, is actually the best match for Robb, as she actually stands to inherit the Vance lands and titles.  That match has the added benefit of avoiding pissing off a powerful house, which would be a casualty of a Blackwood or Bracken marriage.  There's also nothing objectively or strategically disadvantageous about a Frey marriage, on paper.  If we allow what we know of the characters to influence the hypothetical, though (which I will, because I'm the one writing this post so I get to make the rules :-)), Betha Blackwood becomes the best choice, because of those houses we know that House Blackwood is by far the most loyal to the Starks, Betha is sweet and gentle, her father is stalwart and noble, they worship the Old Gods, and, for what its worth, they are the only family, as far as I can tell, that has married into both the Targaryen and Stark families.  Also Jonos Bracken is an ass.  I'm actually surprised that GRRM has taken such clear sides in this "Hatfields vs McCoys" storyline he created, but that's a conversation for another day.  tl;dr: Betha Blackwood.

Best match for Robb in peacetime if no one ever goes to war: I'll defer to others on this.  All we have to go on is that Rickard Karstark tried to betrothe Alys to Robb when she was 6 years old or so, and everything seemed to go nicely, but she was engaged to Daryn Hornwood at the start of AGOT, so clearly the betrothal didn't happen.  If that match wasn't acceptable to Ned, its hard to imagine how one of Manderly's granddaughters or Umber's daughters would have had any better luck.  I'm inclined to agree that either Ned was willing to wait and let Robb marry for love (although we don't actually have any evidence at all that he leaned this way) or he wanted to make another strategic marriage outside of the North.

[StarkofWinterfell]

Probably would've married Cersei.

[devilish]

18 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

We are talking about Robb desperate to free his father. He would have married anyone presented to him who he thought could have achieved that.

If he was that desperate then he would have done a Rickard Stark and went to KL and bent the knee. He was so desperate to revenge his daddy and bring Sansa back the he would have refused the crown because that would have burnt bridges with any potential ally. Robb loved his family but he was far from ready of taking desperate measures to protect it

[Kytheros]

16 hours ago, estermonty python said:

I think we're talking past each other.  The premise of the hypothetical, as I understood it, is "what if Robb was never expected to marry a Frey" - implying, then, that the Freys are loyal to the Tullys and lend their aid to Robb's army without extracting a pound of flesh in return.

This is one of the reasons hypotheticals like this go off the rails so easily - at a certain point none of us are even sure we are debating the same thing!  I guess I'd sum up my arguments this way:

Best strategic match for Robb to win the War: Shireen Baratheon

Best strategic match after Robb wins the war for independence: A noble girl from the Riverlands, to cement his rule over the Riverlands as well as the North.  The ones we know about are: Betha Blackwood, one of Jonos Bracken's 5 daughters, one of the 18,000 Freys (let's pick Roslin for the time being), Eleanor Mooton (now married to Dickon Tarly), and Liane Vance, the heir to Wayfarer's Rest.  Of those 5, House Mooton was the only one that did not participate in Hoster Tully's funeral procession, so we can infer from that that House Mooton is less powerful than the other vassal houses (and this is supported by the "screen time" given to the 6 Riverland houses that appear to be most powerful as of the events of the book: Blackwood, Bracken, Mallister, Piper, Frey, and Vance).  Now, there's actually a compelling case to be made that Liane Vance, who we know nothing about, is actually the best match for Robb, as she actually stands to inherit the Vance lands and titles.  That match has the added benefit of avoiding pissing off a powerful house, which would be a casualty of a Blackwood or Bracken marriage.  There's also nothing objectively or strategically disadvantageous about a Frey marriage, on paper.  If we allow what we know of the characters to influence the hypothetical, though (which I will, because I'm the one writing this post so I get to make the rules :-)), Betha Blackwood becomes the best choice, because of those houses we know that House Blackwood is by far the most loyal to the Starks, Betha is sweet and gentle, her father is stalwart and noble, they worship the Old Gods, and, for what its worth, they are the only family, as far as I can tell, that has married into both the Targaryen and Stark families.  Also Jonos Bracken is an ass.  I'm actually surprised that GRRM has taken such clear sides in this "Hatfields vs McCoys" storyline he created, but that's a conversation for another day.  tl;dr: Betha Blackwood.

Best match for Robb in peacetime if no one ever goes to war: I'll defer to others on this.  All we have to go on is that Rickard Karstark tried to betrothe Alys to Robb when she was 6 years old or so, and everything seemed to go nicely, but she was engaged to Daryn Hornwood at the start of AGOT, so clearly the betrothal didn't happen.  If that match wasn't acceptable to Ned, its hard to imagine how one of Manderly's granddaughters or Umber's daughters would have had any better luck.  I'm inclined to agree that either Ned was willing to wait and let Robb marry for love (although we don't actually have any evidence at all that he leaned this way) or he wanted to make another strategic marriage outside of the North.

I'd treat it as instead of extracting a betrothal to Robb, Walder Frey either didn't demand a bethrothal, or he was placated by a betrothal to Edmure, Bran or Rickon, instead of Robb.

I'm pretty sure the best strategic match for Robb would have been Shireen. Barring of course, other factors being altered.
If we add the change that Robb wasn't declared King of the North and the Riverlands, but Renly still got shadowbabied, it's possible that the Tyrells would offer Loras for Shireen, and then Margaery to Robb, although Robb/Shireen would still be a viable option.
If we add the change that Robb wasn't declared KotNatR, and Stannis and Renly came to a deal to take the Lannisters first, Robb/Shireen is still an option, as it gives Stannis a firm counterweight against Renly; if Renly died in the fighting, Margaery is again an option; if Renly lived but Stannis died in the crushing of Lannisters, I'm not sure who Robb marries.
 

In peacetime ... it's more likely than not that Robb marries someone from a First Men House from the Riverlands or Vale, or someone from a Northern House. It is highly unlikely that Robb would marry someone from the Westerlands, Reach, Stormlands, or Dorne. It is also quite improbable (probably next to impossible) that Robb would marry someone from the Iron Islands or Essos.

[estermonty python]

2 hours ago, Kytheros said:

I'd treat it as instead of extracting a betrothal to Robb, Walder Frey either didn't demand a bethrothal, or he was placated by a betrothal to Edmure, Bran or Rickon, instead of Robb.

I'm pretty sure the best strategic match for Robb would have been Shireen. Barring of course, other factors being altered.
If we add the change that Robb wasn't declared King of the North and the Riverlands, but Renly still got shadowbabied, it's possible that the Tyrells would offer Loras for Shireen, and then Margaery to Robb, although Robb/Shireen would still be a viable option.
If we add the change that Robb wasn't declared KotNatR, and Stannis and Renly came to a deal to take the Lannisters first, Robb/Shireen is still an option, as it gives Stannis a firm counterweight against Renly; if Renly died in the fighting, Margaery is again an option; if Renly lived but Stannis died in the crushing of Lannisters, I'm not sure who Robb marries.
 

In peacetime ... it's more likely than not that Robb marries someone from a First Men House from the Riverlands or Vale, or someone from a Northern House. It is highly unlikely that Robb would marry someone from the Westerlands, Reach, Stormlands, or Dorne. It is also quite improbable (probably next to impossible) that Robb would marry someone from the Iron Islands or Essos.

I agree with the conclusion.  This made me think more thoughts though...

What incentive would the Tyrells have to support Robb's cause under any circumstance?  Robb isn't trying to sit the Iron Throne, so its tough to see how the Tyrells are advantaged if Robb wins the fractured kingdom he seeks.  The end result would be someone sitting on the Iron Throne who would be pissed at the Tyrells, and I'm not sure that tradeoff is worth the advantages a Robb-Margaery marriage would theoretically provide.  The alternative - allying with someone who actually wants to sit the Iron Throne and marrying Margaery to that person (i.e. what they actually did) - has infinitely more benefits and basically no drawbacks.

Second thought that I haven't seen here - I actually do see a rather straightforward Iron Islands scenario:  Robb sends Theon to try to win his father to Robb's cause.  Theon isn't a turncloak and Balon is only half as much of an asshole, and Balon agrees on condition that all obligations from the Greyjoys to the Starks cease and Robb marry Yara.  That's actually not far-fetched at all.  Robb might not go for it, but its not a bad match, as far as nobility, and the Iron Fleet is no small dowery. 

[Kytheros]

11 minutes ago, estermonty python said:

I agree with the conclusion.  This made me think more thoughts though...

What incentive would the Tyrells have to support Robb's cause under any circumstance?  Robb isn't trying to sit the Iron Throne, so its tough to see how the Tyrells are advantaged if Robb wins the fractured kingdom he seeks.  The end result would be someone sitting on the Iron Throne who would be pissed at the Tyrells, and I'm not sure that tradeoff is worth the advantages a Robb-Margaery marriage would theoretically provide.  The alternative - allying with someone who actually wants to sit the Iron Throne and marrying Margaery to that person (i.e. what they actually did) - has infinitely more benefits and basically no drawbacks.

Second thought that I haven't seen here - I actually do see a rather straightforward Iron Islands scenario:  Robb sends Theon to try to win his father to Robb's cause.  Theon isn't a turncloak and Balon is only half as much of an asshole, and Balon agrees on condition that all obligations from the Greyjoys to the Starks cease and Robb marry Yara.  That's actually not far-fetched at all.  Robb might not go for it, but its not a bad match, as far as nobility, and the Iron Fleet is no small dowery. 

Any scenario where there's a Robb/Margaery match is more than likely one where Robb hasn't been declared King of the North and the Riverlands, and supports Stannis for the Iron Throne. Renly either didn't marry Margaery or got shadowbabied. The Tyrells would be unlikely to support the Lannisters against Stannis backed by Robb and the North and the Riverlands, and would probably offer Loras for Shireen and Margaery for Robb to secure their position in the New Order under King Stannis.

Yara's the show. The books is Asha.
That said, your Greyjoy scenario does seem like a reasonably viable, if unlikely, option. On the flip side, Asha would likely not be happy in Winterfell, and Balon keeps grudges and is an idiotic ass.

[MinotaurWarrior]

Robb never has a chance to betrothe Margery. When Cat goes South, she's married, and unless she has an alliance at the time of renly's death, she's not welcome to stay in the camp. 

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

Maergaery Tyrell

[Walda]

3 hours ago, BRANDON GREYSTARK said:

Maergaery Tyrell

Yes, every king has to marry Margaery Tyrell before they die.

I'd like to put a word in for Myrcella Baratheon - she fell in love with him at first sight, and if her father had not died prematurely, Robert would probably have arranged it by the time she was twelve. I think they would have made a happy couple, and wise rulers, too.

ETA: Happy couple rules wisely and well - not much of a story.  Still, Joffrey and Sansa would more than make up for them.

[Ser Ronan Storm]

If Robb was still declared King in the North, it would not have been wise to marry a daughter of one of his own bannermen. He would need to forge a marriage alliance that would provide him with more wealth/manpower/support in his war against the Lannisters. We can rule out Robb seeking a bride in the Riverlands because they already support him due to him being a Tully on his mother's side. We could probably rule out the Vale too, since the people of the Vale were giving everyone else in Westeros the cold cock during the War of Five Kings. Stannis would not ally himself with one he considers a pretender, so Shireen is ruled out. And we can safely eliminate pretty much everyone in the Westerlands (I'm choosing to believe that Jeyne Westerling never happens in my scenario; if Robb had been free to marry ever since his coronation, whatever marriage alliance he formed may have prevented him from going as far as the Crag on his campaign and thus avoiding the Westerling problem).

Robb's most logical option is Asha Greyjoy. Theon is already a brother to him. The Iron Islands sit damn close to the Westerlands. Marrying Asha would cement an alliance between the North, the Riverlands and the Iron Islands. The Iron Fleet would be instrumental in sacking Lannisport and Casterly Rock. This plan would benefit the Ironborn because the Westerlands are close, they have all the gold, and so helping the Northmen raid it would mean a more immediate benefit being reaped. But would Balon Greyjoy ever consent to this marriage? Doubtful, as the man was a complete nutter.

Robb's next option is Margaery Tyrell, but numerous obstacles are in play here. First is the Tyrell involvement in Renly's short-lived rebellion. I mean, she married Renly right out of the gate, so I don't see Robb having a chance to propose to her. However, once Renly died...Robb never wanted to sit the Iron Throne, and he likely would have supported Stannis's claim were he not blind to have vengeance on the Lannisters. Robb could have reached out and pursued the Tyrells to help him defeat the Lannisters. With the Lannisters in ruins, the truth of Cersei's children would come out and the Iron Throne would become a contest between Stannis and whichever group was powerful enough to oppose him.

The third option, and the one I really wish had been acknowledged in the books, is Arianne Martell. House Martell and House Stark both have valid reasons to hate Lannisters. Arianne lusts to be a Queen. Even though Dorne is not populous, they could muster 50,000 spears. When the Tyrell army marches with Renly towards King's Landing, the Dornish army would faces minor opposition on their march north through the Reach to aid King Robb. Tywin would be finished. I have no idea why it never crossed Robb's mind to seek help from Dorne. Of course, Doran might have declined, because he's a super-cautious idiot and because of the pact with the Beggar King, but this would have been such an opportune moment to seek revenge. I can't believe Oberyn never showed up at Robb's camp to kick some ass and flirt with Edmure.

[AvengerofWinterfell]

On 3/4/2016 at 11:06 AM, King Merrett I Frey said:

if I'm not mistaken, Dacey is taller than Robb. That would seem... weird in westerosi standards. A warriorlish version of Genna and Emmon Frey.

My choice is Alys Karstark or Wylla Manderly.

she's also considerably older.  While her age isnt certain, the youngest she could be given the range of years for her birth is 22/23 to Robbs 16.

If Ned wanted to strengthen relationships among his bannermen then Alys Karstark makes sense, as does Wylla Manderly.  Wylla also creates a dynamic similar to Ned and Cat where Robb follows the Old Gods as Ned did while Wylla follows the Seven as Cat did.  If Ned was willing to search further south then Margaery makes sense (only if the War of 5 kings doesnt happen).  Dont really see another viable candidate among powerful families as Doran wasnt giving up Arrianne especially to a leader of the rebellion that cost his sister her life.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

8 hours ago, Ser Ronan Storm said:

If Robb was still declared King in the North, it would not have been wise to marry a daughter of one of his own bannermen.

It actually would have. The Lannisters and Tyrells had the backing of their vassals as there was quite a few marriage alliances between them and their bannermen. The last Stark marriage alliances with their own vassals was Robb's great grandparents (a Mountain Clan member and a Locke).

Securing more Northern alliances would have been a sound move, and with only him and Rickon available (Bran being crippled and his sisters held) it would have actually been a sound move to arrange a Northern wedding (though this discussion is kind of pointless as without the Frey betrothal he never becomes King)

8 hours ago, Ser Ronan Storm said:

 

He would need to forge a marriage alliance that would provide him with more wealth/manpower/support in his war against the Lannisters. We can rule out Robb seeking a bride in the Riverlands because they already support him due to him being a Tully on his mother's side.

They supported him because he had an army, already Riverland support and has rescued their capital from the Lannisters. He earnt it.

Would the Freys and others have supported him as King had he not taken a Riverland wife? Impossible to tell, but once again there would have been no Riverrun victory without the Frey betrothal.

8 hours ago, Ser Ronan Storm said:

 

Robb's most logical option is Asha Greyjoy.

This would be a complete non starter as Balon already resented Theon being held hostage at Winterfell, he is not going to send his daughter to do the same. More importantly Asha would never consent to being that far from the sea and nothing more than a wife.

8 hours ago, Ser Ronan Storm said:

Robb's next option is Margaery Tyrell, but numerous obstacles are in play here.

A distant possibility, the main one being the Tyrells think they can do better for her than a marriage to Robb. Both Renly and Joffrey were better alliances.

8 hours ago, Ser Ronan Storm said:

The third option, and the one I really wish had been acknowledged in the books, is Arianne Martell.

Because it is a pointless alliance. They are both far too far apart to be of any use to each other and the Martells (or Dorne) don't really want independence from the Crown, something they could have achieved after Robert's Rebellion.

The North or Dorne is attacked by the King of Westeros and it will take half a year for their allies to help, if at all with neither being a Naval superpower.

8 hours ago, Ser Ronan Storm said:

 I can't believe Oberyn never showed up at Robb's camp to kick some ass and flirt with Edmure.

It would be pretty pointless and take months for him to do so. The Dornish-Crown marriage alliance was made in ASOS and a Dornish Small Council position was given, it is quite some time after that before Oberyn gets to Kings Landing.

Robb would likely have been killed before the negotiating of such an alliance even finished.

And I will repeat it a third time, Robb does not get to become King of either the North or the Riverlands without being betrothed to a Frey. Him having to retreat back home from the Twins or Green Fork would lose him the, little, respect he had from his Northern Lords at the time.

The Battles of the Whispering Woods and Camps is what made him King.