Story about Black Swan

[HouseFossoway]

In the World of Ice and Fire, and in The Rogue Prince, we hear a certain historical character is mentioned: Johanna Swann.

In summary, back around 100 AC, Lys, Myr and Tyrosh join forces to take over the stepstones and form a kingdom called the Triarchy. Lyseni Captains used this new found power to start enslaving westerosi women. one of those women is Johanna Swann.

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she was sold to a pillow house, where she rose to become the celebrated courtesan known as the Black Swan, and ruler of Lys in all but name

I think that if Martin were ever going to write a story from planetos history, Johanna would make an excellent choice for a subject.

Her story would give us more details about Lys, a commonly referenced city, but one which we probably won't see. It would also be interesting to see the politics of the Triarchy, and how they differ from those of Westeros. It would be a political story at it's core.

Also, her story would probably show the rise of the Rogares, the wealthy lysene family who married into the Targaryen and the Martell houses, and controlled a bank that rivaled the Iron Bank of Braavos for awhile. Their growth of power would have had to have happened sometime between 100 and 135 AC.

Another character we could see would be Serenei of Lys. Serenei was rumored to be much older than she appeared in 178 AC, due to dark arts, so it would be entirely possible that Serenei would appear in Johanna's story.

Finally, I think that Johanna could be a great way for Martin to subvert the trope of a beautiful seductress who gains power by sleeping with men, whose only source of power is that she is sexy. Sure that's how characters might remember her in history, but as in real life, characters have a biased view of history. I think that Martin could write a compelling story which would find a way for her to be more than just some woman who controlled men through beauty.

[Joseph Marx]

I know that this thread is old but I found it while doing research on Johanna Swann from The World of Ice and Fire. This would absolutely be a fascinating story especially when you consider that the Triarchy was actually brought down by a rivalry between two Triarch captains for Johanna's favor. A political story showing Johanna rise to prominence and her quest to destroy the Triarchy from within.  Have the power-players of the Rogares and perhaps imply connections to Aegon the Unworthy and I think you could have a fantastic world-building exercise for Essos, which is a region we have very little personal perspective on in the series. Perhaps show her connection to some of the more famous events in Essos and Westeros to better align it with Dunk and Egg and A Song of Ice and Fire.

[Lost Melnibonean]

But what, if anything does it tell us about our story? Perhaps it suggests that Lynesse Hightower great influence in Lys? 

[Lord Varys]

51 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

But what, if anything does it tell us about our story? Perhaps it suggests that Lynesse Hightower great influence in Lys? 

Nothing. But not everything in our story is about our story if you get my meaning. George has ideas about a murder mystery in Braavos and the biography of Aegon the Unlikely from his POV. Those would not really tell us much about our story, either. But they could still be fun.

And while certain historical characters show up in the Dunk & Egg stories that have an impact on the series, those aren't the major characters. Dunk & Egg have their own story.

[Joseph Marx]

48 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

But what, if anything does it tell us about our story? Perhaps it suggests that Lynesse Hightower great influence in Lys? 

That is an interesting perspective. I think a greater impact such a story would have on our overall narrative would be insight into the political machinations of Essos. In the Daenaerys, Illyrio and Varys, and Aegon storylines, there are indications of a growing conflict between the former nations of the Triarchy. Perhaps seeing how the politics of Lys and the other two Daughters interact in a previous age can give us insight into any upcoming strife in TWoW and ADoS.

As far as Dunk and Egg are concerned, the influence of the Free Cities might have an interesting affect that we do not yet know of in the Third Blackfyre Rebellion, which will almost certainly be told (We know that the She-Wolves of Winterfell will detail the Stark Succession Crisis which occurred after the death of Beron Stark by Dagon Greyjoy, but the possibility of a future story in Lys is certainly possible as Dunk and Egg seems to be used by our author to explore ideas and concepts that the main series might not be able to, from the more stabilized and centralized perspective of Duncan the Tall and Aegon V.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

But what, if anything does it tell us about our story? Perhaps it suggests that Lynesse Hightower great influence in Lys? 

Lynesse didn't end up a courtesan in a pillow house, but more of a private concubine in a private home. The influence part makes sense, but does Lynesse have influence at the level that Johanna did? She rules Tregar's house but does she rule Tregar? And does he rule anyone else?

[Lord Wraith]

7 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Lynesse didn't end up a courtesan in a pillow house, but more of a private concubine in a private home. The influence part makes sense, but does Lynesse have influence at the level that Johanna did? She rules Tregar's house but does she rule Tregar? And does he rule anyone else?

Hard to say. Tregar is supposedly a merchant prince of Lys, but Lys is run by a council of Magisters. We really don't know a lot about the who is running the show in Lysene politics.

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Joseph Marx said:

That is an interesting perspective. I think a greater impact such a story would have on our overall narrative would be insight into the political machinations of Essos. In the Daenaerys, Illyrio and Varys, and Aegon storylines, there are indications of a growing conflict between the former nations of the Triarchy. Perhaps seeing how the politics of Lys and the other two Daughters interact in a previous age can give us insight into any upcoming strife in TWoW and ADoS.

I have asked this elsewhere? Could Illyrio be brokering a new alliance of the Three Daughters?

Lynesse Hightower was wed to Jorah, but she abandoned him for a Lysene merchant prince named Tregar Ormollen. She became Tregar’s chief concubine and apparently rules his house. As the Ironmen invaded the Shield Islands and began raiding the Arbor, along the coast, and up the Mander, Lord Leyton Hightower was ordered by House Tyrell to see to his own defenses. He was reportedly locked atop his tower with the Mad Maid, where he had remained for over a decade, consulting books of spells. His heir Baelor began building ships, two more sons were tending to the defense of Oldtown and training recruits, and his youngest son was traveling to Lys to hire sellsails and to enlist the aid of Tregar Ormollen. First, we have the Lys connection with Varys. This by itself does not amount to much, but, Lys is one of the Three Daughters along with Tyrosh and Myr. The Three Daughters, of course aided the greens in the Dance of the Dragons. As our saga developed we learned of a trade war between Lys and Tyrosh. Myr was about to join Tyrosh, but curiously, the Archon of Tyrosh, the brother of the man who had been noted at the betrothal of Daenerys to Drogo, which had been brokered by Illyrio, offered terms to Lys to end the war. This appeared to be because the Golden Company, shockingly, had just broken its contract to fight for Myr.

[Lord Corlys Velaryon]

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Amongst those thus enslaved was Lady Johanna Swann, a fifteen-year-old niece of the Lord of Stonehelm. When her infamously niggardly uncle refused to pay the ransom, she was sold to a pillow house. (The Rogue Prince)

What a fucknuncle! Anyway ...

@HouseFossoway Well said, I agree. Johanna may have met (& known) Saera Targaryen, the second youngest daughter of Jaehaerys & Alysanne who fled from her motherhouse (for the training of septas) to Lys, before owning her own "pleasure house" (hopefully she at least distinguished herself by not having slaves as her prostitutes) in Volantis.

As much as I would like a Black Swan novella as well, it's extremely unlikely GRRM would ever write & publish one. However, I do think she will at least be mentioned - if not appear - in Fire & Blood (perhaps even beforehand in a novella covering at least the Regency, which he wrote far more about than what was published in The World of Ice & Fire).

She came to rule Lys in all but name. Who ruled it after the fall of the Triarchy? The Rogares. Now, I suppose it's possible she did whilst the Triarchy was still together, perhaps even at the height of it. However, I think you have it spot on with her & the rise of the Rogares.

Who's the only Lysene from that time we know for certain was an admiral? Sharako Lohar. Who could have been a murderous rival of his for Johanna's affections, especially if they were also Lyseni? Lysandro Rogare. Who had custody of Prince Viserys after the Battle of the Gullet? Sharako Lohar. Who ended up with custody of Viserys & matched the young prince with his daughter? Lysandro Rogare.

I think it wasn't just about the Black Swan, but Aegon III's only male (male-line) heir for more than 12 years. Perhaps Johanna ruled whilst (rather briefly, before his death) with Lysandro, though I think she did from 134-c.136 when both Lysaro & Moredo were at court with Larra & Viserys. Still, some rise from sex slave to defacto ruler of Lys & the Rogare Bank! And she easily still could've been at least highly influential in the years Lysaro was in Lys before his fall.

For whatever reasons, perhaps waiting for a more opportune time when Viserys could actually consummate his marriage or make a shot for the Iron Throne with him if anything happened to Aegon (Baela & Rhaena, at least, could still ID their youngest brother), it seems like Lysandro was waiting to reveal his ward. But some time after his death (double Faceless Men hit against he & Drazenko?), this policy seems to have changed.

I think Johanna convinced Lysaro though, whether with talk &/or, affections. And the timing works out very well with Oakenfist potentially finding out whilst visiting Aliandra at Sunspear on his way back from clouting the Ironborn.

We know that Johanna Westerling-Lannister (fucking hell, another character from this time we need to know more about!) lent the Crown gold (laugh it was the 1/4 of Aegon II's treasury that Tyland sent to Casterly Rock) for rebuilding costs, I'm guessing it was most like just before Alyn left the west. Particularly also as thanks for all of his help, plus the Lannisters were able to recoup a great deal that Dalton's reavers had stolen.

As @Lord Varys has theorised before, Alyn likely ransomed Viserys without orders from the Regents to do so, even though he may have actually been Aegon's heir at the time. And if Johanna did lend him gold, but Alyn picked up Viserys before returning to KL, then he also dipped greatly into his own wealth (whether bolstered with spoils taken from the Ironborn or not) to pay the enormous ransom. That could easily have sat poorly with his captains & sailors, but they continued to follow him, still at only ~18 years of age.

We know that Aliandra showed "great favor" to Oakenfist, which likely involved at least a reduction of her encouragement of her men in raiding the Marches (& perhaps sexual attraction), but I think also some part (great or small) in Viserys' ransom. Especially as she was in-laws (not to mention Dorne military, political, & trade partners with the Triarchy previous) with the Rogares not too long before.

(She may have even had child/ren with Drazenko, though the MUSH has that as otherwise. There really would be a great irony if the Targaryens - some of them anyway - were kin to the Martells before Daeron II & Mariah's sons. The Dorne-Triarchy & Aliandra-Drazenko relationships are ones I really want to know more about too).

I think the Rogares & the Lyseni Spring are going to be central to the Targaryen dynasty, Alyn & Viserys in particular, from the Regent Wars all the way to Aegon IV's reign (& beyond). (I can expand on this if you like, but this specific post is already long enough. I do think Serenei was a Rogare descendant, though).

A final point on Johanna - I think she was Viserys' primary educator on economics during his time hidden in Lys. A nice, but weird, parallel how he was the same for Elaena whilst she was in the Maidenvault.

[Lord Varys]

16 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I have asked this elsewhere? Could Illyrio be brokering a new alliance of the Three Daughters?

If they do this, they would not need Illyrio Mopatis for this. The specter of the dragon queen crushing them one by one as she did Volantis, taking all their slaves from them (which would essentially ruin them) is going to do that. Right now Illyrio has more important matters to attend to in Westeros, and as soon as Aegon takes KL he will join the boy there.

Illyrio is a powerful and influential men but his power has limits. Nyessos Vhassar took his bribes and then ignored the fat man when it was convenient for him and his city to favor war against Daenerys. The idea that Varys and Illyrio are pulling a lot of strings in Lys and Tyrosh isn't all that likely. The ruling classes there are all insanely rich, as far as we know, thus it would be pretty difficult to offer them anything for the cooperation. And while Lys might be the place of Varys' birth - and it is noteworthy that Varys, Illyrio, Connington, and Toyne had their secret Aegon conference at Lys - this doesn't mean Varys has a lot friends or a power base.

Lys usually does not seem to have a clear ruler. There is a council of magisters there but there are also sellsails. The Saans are a powerful house that more often than not live as sellsails and pirates. Tregar Ormollen might be just one Lysene guy with a fleet of decent size who could be of help to the Hightowers. He is not likely to control Lys in any fashion.

25 minutes ago, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

What a fucknuncle! Anyway ...

@HouseFossoway Well said, I agree. Johanna may have met (& known) Saera Targaryen, the second youngest daughter of Jaehaerys & Alysanne who fled from her motherhouse (for the training of septas) to Lys, before owning her own "pleasure house" (hopefully she at least distinguished herself by not having slaves as her prostitutes) in Volantis.

That would be far too convenient for me. Saera is the second youngest child of Jaehaerys I but she could still have run away in the 70s while we know that the Triarchy only formed in 96 AC, with the Black Swan, at the age of fifteen, only being abducted during the reign of Viserys I. By that time Saera most likely were already in Volantis.

And I'm pretty sure the prostitutes in her brothel there were slaves. Anything else doesn't make sense in a place like Volantis.

25 minutes ago, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

As much as I would like a Black Swan novella as well, it's extremely unlikely GRRM would ever write & publish one. However, I do think she will at least be mentioned - if not appear - in Fire & Blood (perhaps even beforehand in a novella covering at least the Regency, which he wrote far more about than what was published in The World of Ice & Fire).

Depending how long the Black Swan lived she might play a role during the Regency. Or not. She might have died during the Dance if the role she played in the fall of the Triarchy also led to her own demise.

25 minutes ago, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

Who's the only Lysene from that time we know for certain was an admiral? Sharako Lohar. Who could have been a murderous rival of his for Johanna's affections, especially if they were also Lyseni? Lysandro Rogare. Who had custody of Prince Viserys after the Battle of the Gullet? Sharako Lohar. Who ended up with custody of Viserys & matched the young prince with his daughter? Lysandro Rogare.

That could be. But then, Prince Viserys was originally a valuable hostage, not exactly a pawn they intended to use to extend their power to Westeros. The Triarchy was allied with the Greens. Only after Aegon II fell and Aegon III rose did Prince Viserys suddenly become important.

I'd not be surprised if some Rogare was behind the poisoning attempt on Aegon III and Daenaera that killed Gaemon Palehair. Viserys was Aegon III's, and if he and Larra had taken the Iron Throne the Rogares would have controlled all of Westeros.

25 minutes ago, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

I think it wasn't just about the Black Swan, but Aegon III's only male (male-line) heir for more than 12 years. Perhaps Johanna ruled whilst (rather briefly, before his death) with Lysandro, though I think she did from 134-c.136 when both Lysaro & Moredo were at court with Larra & Viserys. Still, some rise from sex slave to defacto ruler of Lys & the Rogare Bank! And she easily still could've been at least highly influential in the years Lysaro was in Lys before his fall.

Whether the Black Swan was still around there is unclear. We also have no idea who sent the Faceless Men after the Rogares. Was it the Iron Bank, to weaken the Rogare bank, or were other Lyseni behind it?

Could very well be that the Rogares broke the power of the Black Swan and then some former lover of hers set out to avenge her.

25 minutes ago, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

For whatever reasons, perhaps waiting for a more opportune time when Viserys could actually consummate his marriage or make a shot for the Iron Throne with him if anything happened to Aegon (Baela & Rhaena, at least, could still ID their youngest brother), it seems like Lysandro was waiting to reveal his ward. But some time after his death (double Faceless Men hit against he & Drazenko?), this policy seems to have changed.

Again, they were trying to get money out of the Iron Throne, either for killing or returning Prince Viserys. How it came to be that he was married to Larra is a complete mystery as of yet. But that decision most likely was made after it become clear that they would not kill him.

[Lost Melnibonean]

12 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If they do this, they would not need Illyrio Mopatis for this. The specter of the dragon queen crushing them one by one as she did Volantis, taking all their slaves from them (which would essentially ruin them) is going to do that. Right now Illyrio has more important matters to attend to in Westeros, and as soon as Aegon takes KL he will join the boy there.

Illyrio is a powerful and influential men but his power has limits. Nyessos Vhassar took his bribes and then ignored the fat man when it was convenient for him and his city to favor war against Daenerys. The idea that Varys and Illyrio are pulling a lot of strings in Lys and Tyrosh isn't all that likely. The ruling classes there are all insanely rich, as far as we know, thus it would be pretty difficult to offer them anything for the cooperation. And while Lys might be the place of Varys' birth - and it is noteworthy that Varys, Illyrio, Connington, and Toyne had their secret Aegon conference at Lys - this doesn't mean Varys has a lot friends or a power base.

When Tyrion and Illyrio departed Pentos, Illyrio expected Daenerys to sack Mantarys after Meereen and continue on to the Free Cities. Later, as Jon Connington approaches Volantis, he learns that Daenerys has not left Meereen, and that Yunkai has recruited Volantis to retake Meereen, and to end Daenerys's anti-slavery regime. Presumably, Illyrio would have learned this upon his return to Pentos. 

In Tyrion V, Dance 18 we get this exchange...

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"What word from old Volantis?" Yandry called.

"War," the word came back.

"Where?" Griff shouted. "When?"

"When the year turns," came the answer, "Nyessos and Malaquo go hand in hand, and the elephants show stripes."

Malaquo is a tiger, so we would expect him to vote for war. Nyessos is one of two elephants, so we should expect him to vote against joining Yunkai. 

Then we learn this...

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"Elephants with stripes?" Griff muttered. "What is that about? Nyessos and Malaquo? Illyrio has paid Triarch Nyessos enough to own him eight times over."

Tyrion V, Dance 18

This suggests that Illyrio has given Nyessos the green light to force Daenerys out of Meereen. 

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

This suggests that Illyrio has given Nyessos the green light to force Daenerys out of Meereen. 

Nope, this suggests that Nyessos Vhassar is his own man, not caring about the bribes this Pentoshi glutton has to offer. Volantis isn't a colony of Pentos, and the elephants aren't black dragons in disguise. Dany and her politics began to threaten a crucial pillar of Volantene economics and foreign relations. Illyrio could throw ten dragon eggs at Nyessos, he would still do what's best for his city.

And you are clearly overestimating the speed in which news travel through the world. As far as we know Illyrio has no glass candles. He would have made his deal with Nyessos after Varys and he learned about Dany's arrival in Astapor and her sacking of that city. He would have concluded that she would use the demon road and go via Volantis, making preparations so that she would not be unwelcome them (deal with Nyessos, decision for the Golden Company and Aegon to meet her there).

The news that Dany decided to stay in Meereen reached Volantis via Grazdan mo Eraz, and there is no reason that any of the Yunkish envoys would have gone to Pentos. By the time Quentyn and Connington/Tyrion learn of Dany's decision Illyrio and Varys would have still been ignorant about that. And even if they had heard something the idea that they had time to react and offer a Nyessos another bribe makes little sense.

They are not wizards, as Varys himself is fond to point out.

And, by the way, since we are discussing Dany's decision to stay in Meereen:

Do you think the Tyrion-Aegon talk ('Go west instead of east, be not a beggar in front of your aunt, etc.) makes any sense in light of the fact that they didn't know about Dany's decision at that point, expecting to meet an exasperated Daenerys at Volantis who had just survived the demon road more or less? They had no intention to go east. They were just sailing down the Rhoyne, preparing to offer a beggar would-be queen with three small dragons and some sellswords the support of 10,000 professional soldiers from the Golden Company as well as a prince with silver-gold hair to marry.

That conversation is completely out of place.

Tyrion certainly could put a little bit of ambition and mistrust of Dany into Aegon but not with referring to intentions and plans they had not yet (any reason) to make.

[Lost Melnibonean]

58 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Nope, this suggests that Nyessos Vhassar is his own man, not caring about the bribes this Pentoshi glutton has to offer. Volantis isn't a colony of Pentos, and the elephants aren't black dragons in disguise. Dany and her politics began to threaten a crucial pillar of Volantene economics and foreign relations. Illyrio could throw ten dragon eggs at Nyessos, he would still do what's best for his city.

Says you. 

59 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And you are clearly overestimating the speed in which news travel through the world. As far as we know Illyrio has no glass candles. He would have made his deal with Nyessos after Varys and he learned about Dany's arrival in Astapor and her sacking of that city. He would have concluded that she would use the demon road and go via Volantis, making preparations so that she would not be unwelcome them (deal with Nyessos, decision for the Golden Company and Aegon to meet her there).

The news that Dany decided to stay in Meereen reached Volantis via Grazdan mo Eraz, and there is no reason that any of the Yunkish envoys would have gone to Pentos. By the time Quentyn and Connington/Tyrion learn of Dany's decision Illyrio and Varys would have still been ignorant about that. And even if they had heard something the idea that they had time to react and offer a Nyessos another bribe makes little sense.

They are not wizards, as Varys himself is fond to point out.

When Illyrio left Pentos with Tyrion, word that Daenerys had remained in Meereen was likely reaching Volantis, as you say, by Yunkish envoys, if not a bit earlier by traders. By the time the Shy Maid met the Kingfisher and the merry band learned that Volantis would go to war after the the turn of the year, Illyrio could have received a bird from Volantis back at Pentos and returned one. 

Your interpretation could be correct, but not necessarily so. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

And, by the way, since we are discussing Dany's decision to stay in Meereen:

Do you think the Tyrion-Aegon talk ('Go west instead of east, be not a beggar in front of your aunt, etc.) makes any sense in light of the fact that they didn't know about Dany's decision at that point, expecting to meet an exasperated Daenerys at Volantis who had just survived the demon road more or less? They had no intention to go east. They were just sailing down the Rhoyne, preparing to offer a beggar would-be queen with three small dragons and some sellswords the support of 10,000 professional soldiers from the Golden Company as well as a prince with silver-gold hair to marry.

That conversation is completely out of place.

Tyrion certainly could put a little bit of ambition and mistrust of Dany into Aegon but not with referring to intentions and plans they had not yet (any reason) to make.

The only one suggesting to Aegon that he should go to Westeros, raise his standards, and hold was Tyrion. He was was pushing his own, not Illyrio's, agenda to overthrow his sweet sister. And he gave some pretty good reasons for doing it. That he could see so deeply into Daenerys's character not really knowing much about her made the passage taste like plot device, but it was a good move. 

Who is it you believe had no intention to go east? Illiyrio? Jon Connington? The Golden Company? All of them? 

My apologies to the OP for going OT. 

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Says you. 

I like myself.

There are conspiracies in Martinworld, but Varys and Illyrio don't rule the world, and there are people who are richer and more powerful than they are. Pentos is may be pretty rich as a city, but Volantis is more powerful and richer, and anyone who can afford to become triarch of Volantis is his own man. At least financially.

If Illyrio wanted to send Dany a message he could send an envoy to her telling her that her nephew is waiting for her in Westeros.

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

When Illyrio left Pentos with Tyrion, word that Daenerys had remained in Meereen was likely reaching Volantis, as you say, by Yunkish envoys, if not a bit earlier by traders.

Traders would have been much slower. They actually have a route they follow, they are not convenient transports of information. If news really travel by traders and are not picked up and transported by information brokers then they travel exceedingly slow. That's how the news of Dany and her dragons finally reached Oldtown and KL.

The Yunkai'i would have taken steps to prepare for a war against Daenerys as soon as she left their city. They might even have sent out envoys before she even took Meereen (although, most likely, not at once to Old Volantis). That way, both good and reliable information would have reached Volantis.

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

By the time the Shy Maid met the Kingfisher and the merry band learned that Volantis would go to war after the the turn of the year, Illyrio could have received a bird from Volantis back at Pentos and returned one.

There is no hint that raven communication is a thing in Essos. Illyrio may have some to communicate with Varys but if this was a thing in Essos then the Shy Maid would have had ravens to sent to Pentos, and Quentyn would have sent (and received) ravens from the Water Gardens in Volantis.

As an elephant and member of the ruling elite of Volantis (and Illyrio of Pentos) Nyessos and Illyrio would have known each other, perhaps personally, perhaps only by reputation. They may have had business dealings in the past, and Illyrio would certainly have contacts and perhaps even clients in the city. One expects that those brides were delivered through such channels, not through personal talk.

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

The only one suggesting to Aegon that he should go to Westeros, raise his standards, and hold was Tyrion. He was was pushing his own, not Illyrio's, agenda to overthrow his sweet sister. And he gave some pretty good reasons for doing it. That he could see so deeply into Daenerys's character not really knowing much about her made the passage taste like plot device, but it was a good move.

The whole conversation makes no sense at this point. They don't expect to go east to Meereen, and show up as supplicants in front of a powerful queen. Illyrio tells Tyrion and the gang what to expect - that Dany takes the demon road and that they would wait for her at Volantis. By the time Tyrion talks to Aegon he has no reason to believe that is not the case. And neither does Aegon. He, too, should believe that Dany is coming to them.

And from a motivational viewpoint Tyrion has no reason whatsoever to try to drive a wedge between Aegon and Dany at this point, or dissuade him from doing anything in his power to get her on board. As you like to point out - Tyrion would have been part of the whole thing, anyway, so he has indeed no reason to get Aegon killed. However, he also has no reason to prevent him from getting a dragon and a Targaryen queen. So why does he do that when he has no reason to believe that Dany is still in Slaver's Bay and not willing to come?

If he has there are rational motive at all (and the whole thing is just not completely contradictory) it is a destructive one. He does not care about his own life and Aegon's, he just wants to see the world burn. In his mind, Aegon certainly has no chance to conquer Westeros without Dany and the dragons. He will die, and thus Varys and Illyrio's plans will go up in flames just as Tyrion's own life did thanks to their meddling.

The irony is that Cersei fucked things up so hard, and Euron and Stannis and the Tyrells and the Faith Militant were so good at ruining things in Westeros that Aegon might now have a great chance to take the Iron Throne even without the dragons because he will be able to explore the power vacuum and confusion right now. But Tyrion could not foresee this.

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Who is it you believe had no intention to go east? Illiyrio? Jon Connington? The Golden Company? All of them? 

None of the them at all. Tyrion is not making sense in that conversation. He is trying to dissuade Aegon from a move that is not yet on the table. When he talks about going west instead of east and not showing up in front of his aunt like a beggar Aegon's natural and obvious answer would have gone somewhat like that:

'Newsflash, Yollo! We are not going to Meereen. My aunt is coming to us, she is on her way west and we are awaiting her at Volantis. Neither I nor the Golden Company have any reason nor any inclination to travel to Slaver's Bay. Why the hell should we?! And whatever the hell you might believe you know about the character and presumptions of Daenerys the demon road will cut her down in size. If she survives that adventure...'

If I tried to dissuade from some cause of action you are not even entertaining right now you would react similarly.

Originally that speech was part of the later Golden Company chapter, not from Connington's but from Tyrion's POV. George just failed to properly rewrite that little speech to make it fit the level of knowledge the two people had while they were still on the Rhoyne.

[Lost Melnibonean]

35 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I like myself.

There are conspiracies in Martinworld, but Varys and Illyrio don't rule the world, and there are people who are richer and more powerful than they are. Pentos is may be pretty rich as a city, but Volantis is more powerful and richer, and anyone who can afford to become triarch of Volantis is his own man. At least financially.

If Illyrio wanted to send Dany a message he could send an envoy to her telling her that her nephew is waiting for her in Westeros.

Traders would have been much slower. They actually have a route they follow, they are not convenient transports of information. If news really travel by traders and are not picked up and transported by information brokers then they travel exceedingly slow. That's how the news of Dany and her dragons finally reached Oldtown and KL.

The Yunkai'i would have taken steps to prepare for a war against Daenerys as soon as she left their city. They might even have sent out envoys before she even took Meereen (although, most likely, not at once to Old Volantis). That way, both good and reliable information would have reached Volantis.

There is no hint that raven communication is a thing in Essos. Illyrio may have some to communicate with Varys but if this was a thing in Essos then the Shy Maid would have had ravens to sent to Pentos, and Quentyn would have sent (and received) ravens from the Water Gardens in Volantis.

As an elephant and member of the ruling elite of Volantis (and Illyrio of Pentos) Nyessos and Illyrio would have known each other, perhaps personally, perhaps only by reputation. They may have had business dealings in the past, and Illyrio would certainly have contacts and perhaps even clients in the city. One expects that those brides were delivered through such channels, not through personal talk.

The whole conversation makes no sense at this point. They don't expect to go east to Meereen, and show up as supplicants in front of a powerful queen. Illyrio tells Tyrion and the gang what to expect - that Dany takes the demon road and that they would wait for her at Volantis. By the time Tyrion talks to Aegon he has no reason to believe that is not the case. And neither does Aegon. He, too, should believe that Dany is coming to them.

And from a motivational viewpoint Tyrion has no reason whatsoever to try to drive a wedge between Aegon and Dany at this point, or dissuade him from doing anything in his power to get her on board. As you like to point out - Tyrion would have been part of the whole thing, anyway, so he has indeed no reason to get Aegon killed. However, he also has no reason to prevent him from getting a dragon and a Targaryen queen. So why does he do that when he has no reason to believe that Dany is still in Slaver's Bay and not willing to come?

If he has there are rational motive at all (and the whole thing is just not completely contradictory) it is a destructive one. He does not care about his own life and Aegon's, he just wants to see the world burn. In his mind, Aegon certainly has no chance to conquer Westeros without Dany and the dragons. He will die, and thus Varys and Illyrio's plans will go up in flames just as Tyrion's own life did thanks to their meddling.

The irony is that Cersei fucked things up so hard, and Euron and Stannis and the Tyrells and the Faith Militant were so good at ruining things in Westeros that Aegon might now have a great chance to take the Iron Throne even without the dragons because he will be able to explore the power vacuum and confusion right now. But Tyrion could not foresee this.

None of the them at all. Tyrion is not making sense in that conversation. He is trying to dissuade Aegon from a move that is not yet on the table. When he talks about going west instead of east and not showing up in front of his aunt like a beggar Aegon's natural and obvious answer would have gone somewhat like that:

'Newsflash, Yollo! We are not going to Meereen. My aunt is coming to us, she is on her way west and we are awaiting her at Volantis. Neither I nor the Golden Company have any reason nor any inclination to travel to Slaver's Bay. Why the hell should we?! And whatever the hell you might believe you know about the character and presumptions of Daenerys the demon road will cut her down in size. If she survives that adventure...'

If I tried to dissuade from some cause of action you are not even entertaining right now you would react similarly.

Originally that speech was part of the later Golden Company chapter, not from Connington's but from Tyrion's POV. George just failed to properly rewrite that little speech to make it fit the level of knowledge the two people had while they were still on the Rhoyne.

You comin back round to the Black Swan or just arguing?