The Butterfly Effect

[standing_on_the_]

R. Targ not noticing lyanna at the tourney of harrenhall

I'm pretty sure Rhaegar had his eyes on Lyanna before the tourney at Harrenhall. I'm also pretty sure he put that baby in her just to force the prophecy of ice and fire, so it's not like he just came up with the idea to kidnap and rape here there at that time.

That is all speculation. What we see is that the tourney is the first time they meet. Northerners don't journey south often

[Guest]

I am not GRRM so it gets too divergent pretty quickly for me to keep up with my self.  You can try.

Here is the timeline of all timeslines (not mine, but great work): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZsY3lcDDtTdBWp1Gx6mfkdtZT6-Gk0kdTGeSC_Dj7WM/edit?pref=2&pli=1#gid=8

 

[jon_griff]

1 minute ago, standing_on_the_ said:

I'm pretty sure Rhaegar had his eyes on Lyanna before the tourney at Harrenhall. I'm also pretty sure he put that baby in her just to force the prophecy of ice and fire, so it's not like he just came up with the idea to kidnap and rape here there at that time.

 

That is all speculation. What we see is that the tourney is the first time they meet. Northerners don't journey south often

True, but still, Rhaegar had the idea of fullfiling the prophecy from a young age, seems obvious to me that this was planned. Even if he didn't do the roses thing at Harrenhal, he would have made his move later on, almost certainly. Maybe the result would have been different, we will never know.

[standing_on_the_]

R. Targ not noticing lyanna at the tourney of harrenhall

I'm pretty sure Rhaegar had his eyes on Lyanna before the tourney at Harrenhall. I'm also pretty sure he put that baby in her just to force the prophecy of ice and fire, so it's not like he just came up with the idea to kidnap and rape here there at that time.

That is all speculation. What we see is that the tourney is the first time they meet. Northerners don't journey south often

That is all speculation. As far as we know from source material it was the first tim they meet. Northerners don't travel south often

[standing_on_the_]

Sorry about the messed up reply posts. I haven't used the phone app all that long

[Jon's Queen Consort]

44 minutes ago, jon_griff said:

I'm pretty sure Rhaegar had his eyes on Lyanna before the tourney at Harrenhall. I'm also pretty sure he put that baby in her just to force the prophecy of ice and fire, so it's not like he just came up with the idea to kidnap and rape here there at that time.

How? How he could know Lyanna before the Tourney?

Cassana and Steffon not dying; Their children might had a better relationship than they had and actually understand that Stannis was the smart one.

[Maxxine]

I don't believe Joffrey tried to have Bran killed. Tyrion, Cersei & even Jamie believe it, but povs can be wrong and often are. It was obviously Littlefinger. Joffrey was no major schemer. But Littlefinger...

How could it be Littlefinger? He wasn't in WF and Jaime pushing Bran from the window obviously wasn't planned. For it to be LF he would've had to find out about Bran's fall and find a way to get the plan to the assassin. He wouldn't have used a raven to convey the plan bc A) You don't put an assassination attempt plan in writing & the guy probably couldn't read. The attempt had to have been planned by someone who was there. By process of elimination Joff is really the only plausible answer. But you're right Joffreyisnt a major schemer hence why the attempt was such a failure

[Aedam Targaryen]

As to the OP's example, if Jaimie doesn't attack Ned, the war doesn't start or play out in the same way, and Jaimie would most likely still have his sword hand. While I don't have specific examples on hand, I know as I read the books I'm constantly thinking, "if Jaimie had a sword hand, this scene would have went very differently."

[daccu65]

1 hour ago, Aedam Targaryen said:

As to the OP's example, if Jaimie doesn't attack Ned, the war doesn't start or play out in the same way, and Jaimie would most likely still have his sword hand. While I don't have specific examples on hand, I know as I read the books I'm constantly thinking, "if Jaimie had a sword hand, this scene would have went very differently."

These thought are what I started the post to examine! I know some posters have said that "this is all conjecture" but that was the point, to take some enjoyment in the conjecture of what a minor, unplanned decision that went the other way could have!

In your example, I'd say that Jaimie hasn't lost his hand, the 'moral reawakening' we see him going through wouldn't have happened at this time.  I think a great deal of his redemption was prompted by being forced to both face life without his fearsome fighting abilities, and to face the consequences the smallfolk face during war. 

Your thoughts?

[ravenous reader]

If Brandon Stark had killed Littlefinger in the duel...a lot of people would still be alive!!!

 

[daccu65]

1 hour ago, ravenous reader said:

If Brandon Stark had killed Littlefinger in the duel...a lot of people would still be alive!!!

 

Please run with this thought!  What other consequences could come out of Littlefinger's death in the duel?  While Littlefinger challenged Brandon, Cat asked Brandon not to kill him, as he was little more than a boy.  If Brandon kills LF, Hoster is probably not going to be terribly happy about it and neither will Cat.  When Brandon is killed, do the Tully's not offer Cat's had to Eddard? 

With LF dead, does Lysa manage a somewhat happy marriage with Jon Arryn? 

Please, describe how you think things play out.

 

[jon_griff]

4 hours ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

How? How he could know Lyanna before the Tourney?

Cassana and Steffon not dying; Their children might had a better relationship than they had and actually understand that Stannis was the smart one.

It is logical to assume that lords of one house are familiar with the existance of lords and their family of other houses? If he was looking for a an ice to put his fire in, a female member of house Stark seems like the logical choise, that's what I would do.

[Curled Finger]

Back to Ned to not killing Jamie...How about Jamie claims the throne for Tywin and kills Ned right then and there.   Makes Benjen the Lord of Winterfell--no Stark is there to rescue & raise Jon Snow.   Tywin rules the realm.   Cersei can marry almost anyone she likes perhaps resulting in a less miserable existence.    Jamie is released from his KG vows and shipped back to Casterly Rock probably keeping his hand.   No bastards resulting from the incestuous union (if Cersei stays in KL).  Robert would not rule.   None of Arys' men would be forgiven.  The crown would not be in financial ruin deeply indebted to either High Garden or the IB.  The only real problem the ruling Lannisters in their own name would have had would have been Dorne and Elia's tragedy.   Stannis would have no claim or reason to claim the throne.  Little Finger would have stayed a powerless petty lord.   Dany & Viserys would have been killed.   Tywin would have ruled from the Iron Throne with an Iron Fist.  

[ravenous reader]

7 hours ago, daccu65 said:

Please run with this thought!  What other consequences could come out of Littlefinger's death in the duel?  While Littlefinger challenged Brandon, Cat asked Brandon not to kill him, as he was little more than a boy.  If Brandon kills LF, Hoster is probably not going to be terribly happy about it and neither will Cat.  When Brandon is killed, do the Tully's not offer Cat's had to Eddard? 

With LF dead, does Lysa manage a somewhat happy marriage with Jon Arryn? 

Please, describe how you think things play out.

 

The main consequences that I see is that a malignant person is gone from planetos, and therefore can no longer spread his malignancy far and wide across the kingdoms!  But, yes, I guess Hoster and Cat, both blind to various degrees to the malignancy, would've been put out by Littlefinger's death, and may have called off Cat's engagement to Brandon.  So, maybe Cat would've ended up marrying Ned instead of Brandon anyway.  Alternatively, perhaps the stain of Brandon's deed would've extended to the entire Stark family in Hoster's and Cat's minds; and in that case, perhaps she wouldn't have married Ned, and none of the Stark children as we know them, bar Jon Snow, would've existed.  So, absurdly, perhaps the Stark children owe their lives to Littlefinger not dying in that duel!  He lived so he could train his energies on the goal of killing them off later on!  (taken to its ad absurdum conclusions, this butterfly effect extrapolation leads one down strange paths indeed...)  If however, as I read him, Hoster was set on a Stark union for one of his daughters, for political expediency I think he would've continued with the engagement, despite Littlefinger's demise, and written off Littlefinger's death as an unfortunate consequence of dueling (dying in a duel is not classified as murder by Westerosi legal standards, is it?). Furthermore, Hoster may have been secretly relieved with Littlefinger out of the way, had he suspected at that point that Littlefinger was making lewd advances to his daughters.  I would think the fact of the duel would be proof enough in Hoster's mind that Littlefinger's affections for Cat, at least (even had he been unaware of what was going on with Lysa at that point), were inappropriate for his social station.  Therefore, it's more likely that Hoster would have minimized rather than maximized the import of the death.  Anyway, Littlefinger is a commoner with no family ties.  He's not important politically and no-one is going to call any banners, miss him, mourn him, or avenge him-- well, all except Lysa, perhaps.  But, what would she do about it...nag her father (never worked)...kill Brandon (I don't think so); Lysa would never have been a murderer, had Littlefinger not egged her on.  With Littlefinger gone, that means no-one to make a murderer of her, and she would not have done anything too drastic besides shut herself up in the Eyrie to sulk and whine about her fate, and avoid her father for the rest of her life-- which she ended up doing anyway!  To answer your question, I don't think Lysa would ever have been happy with Jon Arryn.  And they may have been childless, since I believe there are indications that Robert Arryn is Littlefinger's bastard.  With no heir to the Vale, I guess Harry the heir would have been next in line, which he is probably going to be anyway, once Littlefinger finds a way to 'off' Robert!  Though, of course, the whole question of inheritance would have been postponed, since Jon Arryn might have lived a long life (we're told he was in good shape), without Littlefinger's intervention.  Had Jon Arryn lived, there would have been no need for Ned to go South (unless Cersei would've killed him).  Assuming Cersei would not have gotten to him before Jon Arryn having an opportunity to reveal his 'seed-is-strong' suspicions to Robert Baratheon, that means no war between Starks and Lannisters...Cersei and her children are executed for treason instead of Ned...Jaime never pushes Bran from the window...Sansa and Arya are not traumatized...Cat has no need to take anyone hostage...Basically, without Littlefinger, the Starks continue their happy life in the North-- unless the Lannisters, in retaliation, go to war against the Baratheons, in which case Robert may have enlisted Ned's northern forces.  Perhaps Jaime (had he evaded execution for treason) and/or Tywin takes revenge and kills Robert Baratheon (he's in the habit of kingslaying after all).  So, who would succeed the throne in that case...the rightful heir...Stannis Baratheon!  Doesn't sound like such a bad outcome without Littlefinger, does it?

[daccu65]

58 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

Back to Ned to not killing Jamie...How about Jamie claims the throne for Tywin and kills Ned right then and there.   Makes Benjen the Lord of Winterfell--no Stark is there to rescue & raise Jon Snow.   Tywin rules the realm.   Cersei can marry almost anyone she likes perhaps resulting in a less miserable existence.    Jamie is released from his KG vows and shipped back to Casterly Rock probably keeping his hand.   No bastards resulting from the incestuous union (if Cersei stays in KL).  Robert would not rule.   None of Arys' men would be forgiven.  The crown would not be in financial ruin deeply indebted to either High Garden or the IB.  The only real problem the ruling Lannisters in their own name would have had would have been Dorne and Elia's tragedy.   Stannis would have no claim or reason to claim the throne.  Little Finger would have stayed a powerless petty lord.   Dany & Viserys would have been killed.   Tywin would have ruled from the Iron Throne with an Iron Fist.  

If Jamie killed Ned in the throne room, I think there would have been massive carnage.  If I remember correctly, Ned entered at the head of a host.  I don't think that host is going to react very well to their lord being struck down.  Also, if I remember correctly, the Starks, Arryn's and Baratheons agreed that Robert would sit the throne, as he was related to the Targaryens; thus giving him a little bit of legitimacy.  As a final thought, Robert was suspicious of Tywin for his late commitment.  Even if the Lannisters defeat the Stark forces in King's Landing, I think their still going to have to deal with the Baratheon forces. 

Still, I like the thought and the contemplation.

[daccu65]

48 minutes ago, ravenous reader said:

The main consequences that I see is that a malignant person is gone from planetos...

I like your argument, and I think you are correct.  In my humble opinion, the greatest question would be if Jon Arryn, without LF around to convince Lysa to poison him, would have lived long enough to present the evidence to Robert or if another power player (Varys or Cersei) would have managed to eliminate him. 

If he had lived long enough to present the evidence to Robert, Cersie would have been executed but I don't know if Robert would have killed the children (he didn't grieve for the Targaryen Children, but he didn't order their deaths, either.) 

If he hadn't, it's very possible that things work out very similar to the existing books, up until Cat reaches King's Landing with the dagger.  At that point, the dagger might wind up with Ned and Robert, Robert might recognize it and start going through who in his party had access to it.  At that point, things could have gotten dicey. 

Of course, Varys was planning on setting the wolf against the lion, so one has to wonder how Littlefinger's actions either hindered or helped Varys' schemes.

Final thought, I like the idea that Brandon's act of mercy turns out to have such nasty consequences.

 

[booger_eater]

I don't believe Joffrey tried to have Bran killed. Tyrion, Cersei & even Jamie believe it, but povs can be wrong and often are. It was obviously Littlefinger. Joffrey was no major schemer. But Littlefinger...

How could it be Littlefinger? He wasn't in WF and Jaime pushing Bran from the window obviously wasn't planned. For it to be LF he would've had to find out about Bran's fall and find a way to get the plan to the assassin. He wouldn't have used a raven to convey the plan bc A) You don't put an assassination attempt plan in writing & the guy probably couldn't read. The attempt had to have been planned by someone who was there. By process of elimination Joff is really the only plausible answer. But you're right Joffreyisnt a major schemer hence why the attempt was such a failure

You guys don't give Littlefinger enough credit. You really think Joffrey did this shit? Why? Because Bran put his bro on his ass in the yard? Littlefinger killed the guy to send Robert to Winterfell in the first place. He had Lysa send her sis the letter. Do you really think he didn't have someone in place to act when Bran was lying in bed. It was weeks before the catspaw tried to kill Bran. Littlefinger or Joffrey, Littlefinger obvious choice

[Aedam Targaryen]

12 hours ago, daccu65 said:

These thought are what I started the post to examine! I know some posters have said that "this is all conjecture" but that was the point, to take some enjoyment in the conjecture of what a minor, unplanned decision that went the other way could have!

In your example, I'd say that Jaimie hasn't lost his hand, the 'moral reawakening' we see him going through wouldn't have happened at this time.  I think a great deal of his redemption was prompted by being forced to both face life without his fearsome fighting abilities, and to face the consequences the smallfolk face during war. 

Your thoughts?

I definitely agree with you there. Jaimie would have had both hands and still been and arrogant jerk. In this scenario, even without the war starting (or starting differently at a later time), Joffery was still a huge dick, making it highly likely he would still have been killed off eventually. No matter when or how Joffery went, Cersei would have still blamed Tyrion, and Jaimie would be available to fight at his trial. If Jaimie wins, no Tyrion escape/exile, no Tywin murder. And building off of that, Tywin would have NEVER let the faith arm themselves. Oh man, that's getting to be too many ifs for me. Haha! 

[daccu65]

9 hours ago, booger_eater said:

You guys don't give Littlefinger enough credit. You really think Joffrey did this shit? Why? Because Bran put his bro on his ass in the yard? Littlefinger killed the guy to send Robert to Winterfell in the first place. He had Lysa send her sis the letter. Do you really think he didn't have someone in place to act when Bran was lying in bed. It was weeks before the catspaw tried to kill Bran. Littlefinger or Joffrey, Littlefinger obvious choice

This brings up a good point...that perhaps another agent was on hand to stir up trouble between the Starks and another family.  While I cannot speak for the others who believe Jaimie's reasoning that it was Joff, I can tell you mine, and it's because I give Littlefinger the credit to get what he wants.  Here is my reasoning...

First, Bran's death wouldn't have caused the conflict between Stark and Lannister; it was recovering the weapon and associating it with Tyrion that created the turmoil.  If memory serves, most of the Stark household had consigned themselves to Bran never waking up.

Secondly, the assassin made an attempt to kill Bran and escape.  Starting the fire in the Library as a diversion was a fairly good idea.  This tells me he didn't want to be caught. 

Third, even if he "dropped" the dagger near the crime scene, he had no way of knowing how the Starks would react.  As it was, Cat took ship to King's Landing, where Littlefinger was able to intercept her.  She could have just as likely given it to a couple of her best riders and sent them after the King's Party, to turn it over to Ned. 

Bottom line up front, while I could be wrong, I don't believe that LF had placed an agent in either Witherfell or the King's Party, with instructions to take any opportunity to create conflict between the Starks and the Lannisters.

 

 

[Maxxine]

10 hours ago, booger_eater said:

 

You guys don't give Littlefinger enough credit. You really think Joffrey did this shit? Why? Because Bran put his bro on his ass in the yard? Littlefinger killed the guy to send Robert to Winterfell in the first place. He had Lysa send her sis the letter. Do you really think he didn't have someone in place to act when Bran was lying in bed. It was weeks before the catspaw tried to kill Bran. Littlefinger or Joffrey, Littlefinger obvious choice

You're giving LF too much credit. We see how Joffrey treats Sansa, so it's not like he would need much of reason. But I believe it was Tyrion who says Joffrey was there when Robert said someone should give Bran a quick death so he did it to try to get some attention from his father. The logistics for LF to be behind it just don't work. There's no way LF could have planned that Bran would see Cersei & Jaime and be pushed from a window and fall into a coma. So any planning would have had to occur after the fall. So there's a raven is sent to KL telling about the fall. LF didn't send the plan to the catspaw through raven. So for LF to be behind he would've had to a)get a messenger to the catspaw or 2)send the catspaw from KL. Either way this person has to ride from KL to WF. Even though lone rider moves faster than a host that's still a long trip. Maybe he took a boat like Catelyn and got there faster, but it's still a stretch. And I believe we know from Jaime that it was definitely Robert's knife. So this guy would've also had to steal the king's knife as opposed to having it given to him by Joffrey who had access.

Plus, the attempt was really sloppily done and left a lot at risk. If this guy had been caught alive, then the attempt is easily traced back to LF. If nothing else LF is smart and calculated. I don't think he's going to take that kind of risk.