Why did the Others awaken NOW?

[evita mgfs]

1 hour ago, StarkofWinterfell said:

People ask why the Others have awakened now. Could it be the fact that "Bran" and "Rickon" were buried in the crypts of Winterfell, thus defiling the tomb?

They were just miller's boys. Not actually Starks.

 

 

I may have misunderstood, but Theon adamantly refuses to allow Maester Luwin to bury the Miller's boys in the Stark crypts.  This baffles Luwin - but Theon has great respect for the dead Starks and those crypts!

[Masha]

On 3/17/2016 at 11:53 PM, Curled Finger said:

I think it all started back up with the Doom.   Indulge me for a minute and correct me where I'm way off...

600 years ago       The Doom begins the end of the cycle/spell that entombs, binds or forces unconsciousness on the Others

500 years ago      Valyrian Steel makes its way to Westeros--the Valyrians know they have screwed up and ensure Other fighting equipment is available where needed.  

400 years ago      Geological Little Doom like event hits Hardhome finalizing the release/awakening of the Others

300 years ago      Targs conquer Westeros with dragons

150 years ago      Dragons die, 2 VS Swords are lost

75 years ago        BR is sent to the Wall (estimate)

50 years ago        1 VS sword is lost and BR goes to the cave (estimate) 

All hell has been progressively breaking loose since.    The forces are gathering in opposition to The Others.  I think whatever kept them out of sight lost its restraining power when the dragons died  forcing the reemergence of sacrifices and the Wildlings to unite.   Another VS sword has been destroyed but made into 2 new shiny ones to replace the 2 VS swords that are really lost.   I think the Others have been strengthening their forces and abilities since the Doom.   It just take a long time for things to happen in the frozen waste.   Keep your eyes open for all the swords to be found in TWOW.  That's my 2 cents anyway.

You mixed up timeline here:

600 yrs ago - Hardhome event

400 years ago - The Doom of Valyria (it was mentioned that it happened 100 years before Aegon I conquest)

300 years ago - Aegon I conquest 

65 years ago - BR is sent to the Wall (not earlier because Aegon V sent him to the Wall with his brothers AFTER his coronation which happened 233 AC ) 

GOT events start at 297 AC

But other than messed up timeline - that actually be a factor. I am more and more inclined to believe ebb and flow of magic theory. My additional theory is man-made climate (I meant magic ) change. Valyrians used up more and more magic and lack of magic triggered geological events both in Hardhome and culminating in Valyria. After that magic use/source steadily declines and resulted in Dragons extinction that resulted in more magic decline and lack of magic weakened magic hibernation or perhaps magic bonds that held the Others. The magic ebb reached its nadir. Then some additional extra event such as Mance desecrating graves, Bloodraven messing with magic

On the other hand, The Others awakening triggered the reverse effect, magic started gaining in strength thus triggering clutching of 3 dragons thus drastically jump-starting magic flow again.

 

On 3/18/2016 at 6:35 PM, koststerg said:

I think they were sold to Westerosi lords to buy political leverage by the Targaryens (kind of heritage sell-out during their times of isolation in Dragonstone). Are the swords frightening the Others? Yes as we see in the first chapter (when one of the 3 Others hesitates when he thinks young Royce is going to draw a valyrian sword) but it doesn't seem to affect their general invasion plans as the existence of dragons does. I subscribe to the theory that Dawn of the Daynes is the original Lightbringer and that this sword has a role to play but even for this, given its location and the time limitations, I don't see how even this could work. But maybe I am wrong, I am not sure.

I am pretty sure that it was mentioned that Valyrian swords came to Westeros long BEFORE the Doom. After the Doom, no additional Valyrian swords arrived other than the ones belonging to Targaryens, and their allies that came with them from Dragonstone and they kept those swords within the family. I don't remember any mention that Targaryens traded Valyrian swords, just that Kings of Westeros bought that from Valyria direct.

 

2 hours ago, StarkofWinterfell said:

People ask why the Others have awakened now. Could it be the fact that "Bran" and "Rickon" were buried in the crypts of Winterfell, thus defiling the tomb?

They were just miller's boys. Not actually Starks.

 

 

All Stark and Crypt theories related to death of Ned, Robb, "Bran" and "Rickon" are irrelevant to the Others awakening because according to 1st book - the Others awoke and attacked BEFORE any of these events - including Ned's execution and Red Wedding, and miller boys incidents.

The only one Stark Crypt fact was that Ned buried his sister there and only Stark rulers were supposed to buried there.

 

[StarkofWinterfell]

3 hours ago, evita mgfs said:

I may have misunderstood, but Theon adamantly refuses to allow Maester Luwin to bury the Miller's boys in the Stark crypts.  This baffles Luwin - but Theon has great respect for the dead Starks and those crypts!

Did Theon actually prevent that? Well, just a thought I had for the Others becoming more active.

[evita mgfs]

6 hours ago, StarkofWinterfell said:

People ask why the Others have awakened now. Could it be the fact that "Bran" and "Rickon" were buried in the crypts of Winterfell, thus defiling the tomb?

They were just miller's boys. Not actually Starks.

 

 

Yes, Theon prevents Luwin from burying the Miller's boys in the crypts because Theon does have great respect for the dead Starks and the living,  I only know this because a lot of my essay writing deals with Theon and his relationship with Bran in ADwD.

Someone somewhere posted a timeline for the return of the Others which placed the event much earlier than when Theon takes Winterfell.  Actually, readers know they have returned as of the Prologue in AGoT.  I myself am unsure of why they have returned, and I have read many theories, in this thread and in other threads as well.

Now for my theorizing, I have been trying to relate their return with the violations of hospitality and guest rite, but to no avail, at least with textual evidences.  I suspect that Rhaegar's "abduction" of Lyanna is a violation of hospitality and guest rite - but I take my suppositions from Greek mythology, specifically Homer's Iliad, wherein the cause of the Trojan War is the result of violations against the sacred laws of hospitality and guest rite:  Paris "abducts" the Queen of Sparta Helen while Paris is a guest of red-haired Menelaus, Helen's husband.

I have been trying to determine - or find proof of early violations of hospitality involving the CotF, as in when the First Men invaded the lands/homes of the children, the children considered their encroaching upon their lands as a violation - or when the Andals encroached upon their territory.  Alas, I have not been able to secure my theories with any worthwhile textual evidences.

I will have to wait until Martin decides to reveal ALL to his readers! 

[Curled Finger]

4 hours ago, Masha said:

You mixed up timeline here:

600 yrs ago - Hardhome event

400 years ago - The Doom of Valyria (it was mentioned that it happened 100 years before Aegon I conquest)

300 years ago - Aegon I conquest 

65 years ago - BR is sent to the Wall (not earlier because Aegon V sent him to the Wall with his brothers AFTER his coronation which happened 233 AC ) 

GOT events start at 297 AC

But other than messed up timeline - that actually be a factor. I am more and more inclined to believe ebb and flow of magic theory. My additional theory is man-made climate (I meant magic ) change. Valyrians used up more and more magic and lack of magic triggered geological events both in Hardhome and culminating in Valyria. After that magic use/source steadily declines and resulted in Dragons extinction that resulted in more magic decline and lack of magic weakened magic hibernation or perhaps magic bonds that held the Others. The magic ebb reached its nadir. Then some additional extra event such as Mance desecrating graves, Bloodraven messing with magic

On the other hand, The Others awakening triggered the reverse effect, magic started gaining in strength thus triggering clutching of 3 dragons thus drastically jump-starting magic flow again.

I am pretty sure that it was mentioned that Valyrian swords came to Westeros long BEFORE the Doom. After the Doom, no additional Valyrian swords arrived other than the ones belonging to Targaryens, and their allies that came with them from Dragonstone and they kept those swords within the family. I don't remember any mention that Targaryens traded Valyrian swords, just that Kings of Westeros bought that from Valyria direct

First and foremost, thanks so much for correcting the chronology of events.   I swear someday I will find a good timeline and leave it on my desktop.   A friend and I are currently discussing the possibility that the Valyrians were given their magical ability in order to hold the 14 Flames in check.   It seems the Valyrians began using their considerable magic on other concerns, like slaves and dragons, diverting their resources from the main objective, binding the 14 Flames.   That magic was spread too thin, as it were.   Now that I am reminded of the events at Hardhome occurring 1st it does strike me as nearly validation this was the 1st incident causing the Others to wake or whatever it they are doing.  The descriptions of both Hardhome and Valyria are so similar they could be the same place with minor exceptions.   These cataclysms caused shrieking sounds to emit from caves in Hardhome and loss of an entire body of land in Valyria.  

Valyrian Steel was on Dragonstone certainly, prior to the Doom.    The oldest VS swords I found mention of in Westeros are 500 years old. (TBH, I thought I read that one of the swords was acquired 600 years ago, but I've been unable to locate the supporting text, so that could be a mistake on my part)  To the best of my knowledge neither the Tarlys nor the Mormonts were kings.  I have searched and found no definitive reason or manner the VS swords reached Westeros.   That VS is prized and revered is a good reason for anyone to acquire and hang on to it.   What I find curious is the families who both originally owned and later owned the swords as well as their original and current locations.   These things are not sold in current day.    Truly, the poor families who have retained their swords won't sell them for any amount of money.   Why hang on to them if their sale could guarantee a comfortable life to the end of your days?    There is a reason the swords are where they are and a reason no one lets them go.  

I am not prepared to answer your statement regarding the Others awakening triggering a reverse effect.   I still know so very little about the Others it is impossible to say at this point.   They very well could have their own brand of magic that has effects on other types of magic.   And they could be something completely different.   I just don't know, but it's not a bad idea at all. 

The timeline was to illustrate what I think may have happened.    I do believe there is a direct correlation between the cataclysms, the swords reaching certain people in Westeros and the Others stirring at this point in the story.   Of course these are only a few of the undoubtedly countless number of transgressions, misuses and oath breaking that surely contributed to the Others becoming apparent at this time.  If we knew the contents of the 1st Pact I'm sure we would understand much more.  

[Masha]

On 3/24/2016 at 10:55 PM, Curled Finger said:

First and foremost, thanks so much for correcting the chronology of events.   I swear someday I will find a good timeline and leave it on my desktop.   A friend and I are currently discussing the possibility that the Valyrians were given their magical ability in order to hold the 14 Flames in check.   It seems the Valyrians began using their considerable magic on other concerns, like slaves and dragons, diverting their resources from the main objective, binding the 14 Flames.   That magic was spread too thin, as it were.   Now that I am reminded of the events at Hardhome occurring 1st it does strike me as nearly validation this was the 1st incident causing the Others to wake or whatever it they are doing.  The descriptions of both Hardhome and Valyria are so similar they could be the same place with minor exceptions.   These cataclysms caused shrieking sounds to emit from caves in Hardhome and loss of an entire body of land in Valyria.  

Valyrian Steel was on Dragonstone certainly, prior to the Doom.    The oldest VS swords I found mention of in Westeros are 500 years old. (TBH, I thought I read that one of the swords was acquired 600 years ago, but I've been unable to locate the supporting text, so that could be a mistake on my part)  To the best of my knowledge neither the Tarlys nor the Mormonts were kings.  I have searched and found no definitive reason or manner the VS swords reached Westeros.   That VS is prized and revered is a good reason for anyone to acquire and hang on to it.   What I find curious is the families who both originally owned and later owned the swords as well as their original and current locations.   These things are not sold in current day.    Truly, the poor families who have retained their swords won't sell them for any amount of money.   Why hang on to them if their sale could guarantee a comfortable life to the end of your days?    There is a reason the swords are where they are and a reason no one lets them go.  

I am not prepared to answer your statement regarding the Others awakening triggering a reverse effect.   I still know so very little about the Others it is impossible to say at this point.   They very well could have their own brand of magic that has effects on other types of magic.   And they could be something completely different.   I just don't know, but it's not a bad idea at all. 

The timeline was to illustrate what I think may have happened.    I do believe there is a direct correlation between the cataclysms, the swords reaching certain people in Westeros and the Others stirring at this point in the story.   Of course these are only a few of the undoubtedly countless number of transgressions, misuses and oath breaking that surely contributed to the Others becoming apparent at this time.  If we knew the contents of the 1st Pact I'm sure we would understand much more.  

I am not sure about the swords reaching right people theory.  The theory about swords and just the right people/bloodlines might have been true of First Men-based family swords, because First Men families were there during the Long Night and they dealt with the Others and such knew through their lore that those Valerian swords had some mystic quality but it would NOT be true of Andals-based Westeros families who are completely ignorant of the Long Night history and only heard them as scary stories from some First Men nannies...in fact Andals were not involved in the previous Long Night war at all, at least there was no mention or implication of that in any of ASOIAF books . 

The reason you find it curious that noble families who fell into hard financial times refused to sell their swords to regain the family fortunes is because you are judging it from modern perspective. The perspective that based on middle-class bourgeoisy/merchant mind set that we all have, is that any object is not worth your family's life and well being. But you have to get inside those medieval-based noble families mindset, for them honor was their lives and if all thats remained of their family was the family castle in ruins and the sword, they would loose the ruins and die of hunger before they would sell that sword, for the sword is the proof of their blood right and identity which is more important to them than any monetary or power gains. For them to trade this sword would be tantamount to trading their family's legacy, their history, their bloodline and more. The sword keeps them tethered to their history, they base their very identity and self-worth on that. Thats why Tywin is obsessed in regaining some sort of Valyrian blade because that what proves his family right to rule, their bloodline and so on. 

Thats why most of fairy tales (Arthur) that were created way back in middle-ages were of type "whosoever holds/pulls that sword has the right to ...."   because the family sword is the family identity. Thats why Tywin taking the Ice and remaking it is so symbolic, its symbol of his 100% conquest of Starks, their utter and complete destruction.

So I haven't read the full theory about swords conspiracies and coming together at the end to fight the Others. However, you can't base the theory being the reason why Westerosi noble families refuse to part with their Valyrian family swords for any money. They do it not because of some blood-link or magic-link, its for the honor and family and identity.  

[stephenbaratheon]

On 3/15/2016 at 8:05 PM, Ser Warren Royce said:

Perhaps it's all part of a cycle. The Others cover the world in their winter for their master, CotF resurge to slay them and rebuild, sing their songs to destroy the bleak winters, and the first men build their settlements and with the CotF they have their peace until Rhoynar come... well so on and so forth. It's all Cyclical...... or is that crackpotty?

Not at all! I think your spot on!

[Nezza86]

Maybe they were nearly wiped out during the battle of the long night and it has taken them this long to build enough numbers to move against the living. 

It would explain why they were attacking small isolated groups like waymar etc and once Mance united the wildlings they used that as a chance to expand their army of wights. We still haven't seen a major attack by the white walkers yet have we? Although I think there might be some talk of a big attack at hardholme, but we don't get an eyewitness account.

[Lord Varys]

The best idea is the following:

1. The Others were never asleep, but instead always there, always watching.

2. The power of the fire magic of Valyria and their dragons kept them in check. They did not want to dare to try to make another attempt to wipe out humanity while hundreds or thousands of dragonlords could bring the war to them.

3. The Doom could have changed that somewhat but then the Targaryens brought the dragons to Westeros.

4. After the Dance and the death of the last dragon some time later they could finally make their move. First slowly build up their ranks with that sacrifice thing Craster (and possibly others) do(es), and then create/enlarge the army of wights.

5. The next step is to time the grand invasion. Collecting information on the enemy would be important (which could work through magical man) and choosing an opportune moment when the enemy is ripping themselves to pieces. With the dragons and the Targaryens gone they might stand pretty good chance of giving the world the worst winter ever, recreating the Long Night in the process. That's what they finally doing right now.

[Mat92]

On 16/03/2016 at 6:11 AM, John Suburbs said:

They were never in hibernation at all, just way far north where no man could see them, and now they are fleeing south from the great evil that Bran saw in his coma dream.

Wow I like this theory!

I never really believed they were in hibernation to be honest. We never actually see any large group of White Walkers in the books, the bulk of their army is wights. Therefore, it's perfectly believable that their group/the few of them could all be hanging out in the Lands of Always Winter not causing any trouble for a long time. 

I don't recall Bran seeing any "evil" in his dream - this is the quote I found:

Quote

"He looked deep into the heart of winter, and then he cried out, afraid, and the heat of his tears burned on his cheeks."

Is it possible that there is some sort of Ice Age or big event on it's way that the WW are fleeing from?

Perhaps it was the WW that Bran saw, and he was scared because he's only heard of them in Old Nans stories - he is only a young boy. It's possible that he also saw what they are running from and naturally thought of them as one combined threat. All hypothetical of course.

But this might not work - why would Bran be needed north of the wall if it's some sort of natural event?

[rotting sea cow]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The best idea is the following:

1. The Others were never asleep, but instead always there, always watching.

2. The power of the fire magic of Valyria and their dragons kept them in check. They did not want to dare to try to make another attempt to wipe out humanity while hundreds or thousands of dragonlords could bring the war to them.

3. The Doom could have changed that somewhat but then the Targaryens brought the dragons to Westeros.

4. After the Dance and the death of the last dragon some time later they could finally make their move. First slowly build up their ranks with that sacrifice thing Craster (and possibly others) do(es), and then create/enlarge the army of wights.

5. The next step is to time the grand invasion. Collecting information on the enemy would be important (which could work through magical man) and choosing an opportune moment when the enemy is ripping themselves to pieces. With the dragons and the Targaryens gone they might stand pretty good chance of giving the world the worst winter ever, recreating the Long Night in the process. That's what they finally doing right now.

I fully agree with this. Maybe there were even wighting a few people every season, but not enough to make the wildings too afraid. This changed recently and thus Mance happened.

It would be interesting to have records from the Wall around Aegon conquest time. My head cannon is the conquest was partially motivated by the threat of a new Long Night.

Another contributed factor is that the Night Watch is now at a historical minimum. During Aegon conquest was 10k strong.

What about Summerhall?

Another thing. Could the Others be influencing some people to weaken the realm? It's a controversial topic because it shifts the responsibility to the 'Devil'.

Also, it is interesting the level of strategic thinking of the Others. E.g. They were shepherding the wildings to attack the Wall, never attacking in force despite they could obtain thousands of wights, but as soon the NW went with a large force, they did attack, severely weakening an already weak NW.

[SiSt]

Is there an established timeline on the whereabouts of the Starks around the time when Ned rides south for Robert´s rebellion? 

His father and brother are both killed in King´s Landing.
Benjen has left for the wall/is a sworn brother of the NW?
Pregnant Catelyn (with Robb) is at Riverrun?
Lyanna is off in Dorne.

No Starks in Winterfell?

[Luddagain]

I think it also has something to do with the disappearance of the original sword Ice. this also seemed to coincide with the doom.

 

Also there was a significant name change

 

The Starks were originally Kings of Winter. After the disappearance of the sword they became Kings in the North, and ultimately simply Lords in the North

[Free Northman Reborn]

I suggest Jon's birth triggered their first awakening. The Prince who was Promised. Perhaps promised to end the lopsided seasons? His is the Song of Ice and Fire. The fulfillment of the Pact of Ice and Fire.

Someone from the Show's cast mentioned that Jon's parentage was a bit of a Darth Vader situation. Well, Anakin Skywalker was the one who was supposed to bring balance to the Force. (Between Ice and Fire, in this case). But in the end, he proved to be merely the father of the one who was the true prophecied one.

In the same way, Rhaegar initially thought that he was the Prince who Was Promised. Many thought so due to his birth after the tragedy at Summerhal. But in the end he realized that his son would be that person.

So Jon's birth awakened the Others, as the Last Battle between Ice and Fire is needed in order to bring balance back to the climate.

[Lord Varys]

42 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I suggest Jon's birth triggered their first awakening. The Prince who was Promised. Perhaps promised to end the lopsided seasons? His is the Song of Ice and Fire. The fulfillment of the Pact of Ice and Fire.

Even if the promised prince was the Song of Ice and Fire (which I very much doubt) we have no reason to believe that the Others slept and had to be awakened nor that such an awakening (if it occurred) was in any way connected to the promised prince.

There is no reason not to believe that the Others make their own rules and decision. They are powerful and destructive magical force in their own right.

42 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Someone from the Show's cast mentioned that Jon's parentage was a bit of a Darth Vader situation. Well, Anakin Skywalker was the one who was supposed to bring balance to the Force. (Between Ice and Fire, in this case). But in the end, he proved to be merely the father of the one who was the true prophecied one.

Actually, no. Anakin Skywalker was the Chosen One, not Luke. Anakin killed Darth Sidious, not Luke.

42 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So Jon's birth awakened the Others, as the Last Battle between Ice and Fire is needed in order to bring balance back to the climate.

There is no reason to believe that there is any 'magical balance' required in Westeros. Such a concept was as of yet not even be introduced in the story.

It could be that the Others are an abomination to nature but then they have to be utterly destroyed to save the world. There won't be any middle ground (or balance) there. A balance always suggests there is also room for the other side but just as there was no place for the Sith in Star Wars after the Force was put back into balance there should be no place for the Others or whatever they stand for/represent in Westeros.

If we go with the balance idea (which I don't think we should).

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

It would be interesting to have records from the Wall around Aegon conquest time. My head cannon is the conquest was partially motivated by the threat of a new Long Night.

There might be some connection to the promised prince prophecy. We'll have to wait and see whether that's ever going to be explored. There are some hints that Aegon might have thought he was the promised with his sister-wives being the other dragon heads.

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Another contributed factor is that the Night Watch is now at a historical minimum. During Aegon conquest was 10k strong.

Sure, that would be a major factor as well.

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

What about Summerhall?

I don't think that was a special event for the Others. Just a failure that eventually turned to their advantage as did the Dance and the deaths of the last dragons.

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Another thing. Could the Others be influencing some people to weaken the realm? It's a controversial topic because it shifts the responsibility to the 'Devil'.

Considering that there are no hints that something of that sort happens I doubt that this is the case. There could be later alliances between the Others and some people in Westeros on the basis of the Craster agreement but we'll have to wait and see whether that happens.

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Also, it is interesting the level of strategic thinking of the Others. E.g. They were shepherding the wildings to attack the Wall, never attacking in force despite they could obtain thousands of wights, but as soon the NW went with a large force, they did attack, severely weakening an already weak NW.

That is true. They are not stupid. The attack at the Fist and the wights at the Wall in AGoT are the two only hints that the Others actually intend to breach the Wall and get to the people in the South as well as the wildlings.

[Free Northman Reborn]

26 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Even if the promised prince was the Song of Ice and Fire (which I very much doubt) we have no reason to believe that the Others slept and had to be awakened nor that such an awakening (if it occurred) was in any way connected to the promised prince.

There is no reason not to believe that the Others make their own rules and decision. They are powerful and destructive magical force in their own right.

Actually, no. Anakin Skywalker was the Chosen One, not Luke. Anakin killed Darth Sidious, not Luke.

There is no reason to believe that there is any 'magical balance' required in Westeros. Such a concept was as of yet not even be introduced in the story.

It could be that the Others are an abomination to nature but then they have to be utterly destroyed to save the world. There won't be any middle ground (or balance) there. A balance always suggests there is also room for the other side but just as there was no place for the Sith in Star Wars after the Force was put back into balance there should be no place for the Others or whatever they stand for/represent in Westeros.

If we go with the balance idea (which I don't think we should).

Look, I'm speculating here. No one really knows the answer to the question posed by this thread. One bit I do feel particularly strongly about, is that I don't think the Others were always at a constant level of strength. I think they were defeated and confined in the Land of Always Winter. Something boosted their strength, or allowed them to awaken from some spell of imprisonment, or some Pact was broken that kept them in check, or perhaps a certain period of time was needed to gradually rebuild their magic.

I certainly don't think that they've been idling the time away up in the Far North until they just randomly decided now is as good a time as any to head South. Something in the underlying conditions changed. I don't think it is the dwindling numbers of the Watch, as I don't think the Watch is what stood in their way for all these years. It was the magic of the Wall that held them back. Not the men manning the Wall.

It was also not the rebirth of Dany's dragons that did it, as there were far more Dragons for 5000 years in Valyria - and for about 2 centuries after Aegon's conquest - than there are now.

Something changed. And it changed in the last generation or so, presuming that the Long Summer of 10 years was as a result of the forces of Ice marshalling all their strength in the Far North, thus temporarily diverting its power from interrupting a long Summer.

[Lord Varys]

14 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Look, I'm speculating here. No one really knows the answer to the question posed by this thread. One bit I do feel particularly strongly about, is that I don't think the Others were always at a constant level of strength. I think they were defeated and confined in the Land of Always Winter. Something boosted their strength, or allowed them to awaken from some spell of imprisonment, or some Pact was broken that kept them in check, or perhaps a certain period of time was needed to gradually rebuild their magic.

I certainly don't think that they've been idling the time away up in the Far North until they just randomly decided now is as good a time as any to head South. Something in the underlying conditions changed. I don't think it is the dwindling numbers of the Watch, as I don't think the Watch is what stood in their way for all these years. It was the magic of the Wall that held them back. Not the men manning the Wall.

It was also not the rebirth of Dany's dragons that did it, as there were far more Dragons for 5000 years in Valyria - and for about 2 centuries after Aegon's conquest - than there are now.

Something changed. And it changed in the last generation or so, presuming that the Long Summer of 10 years was as a result of the forces of Ice marshalling all their strength in the Far North, thus temporarily diverting its power from interrupting a long Summer.

If the Others are immortal and some of them actually still remember the Long Night they could be beings who can take their time. Immortals have all the time in the world, after all. And then the Dance and/or the death of the last dragon could easily have been that game changer. For about 150 years they are now preparing for the grand finale. Mance's whole movement grew only in the wake of the strength of the Others and it makes little sense to assume that the wildlings were ready to give up the fight and flee down south just after one or two skirmishes. They must have felt the pressure of the Others for years or even decades, and news and proof of their existence must have spread from the borders of the Lands of Always Winter down to the villages in the Haunted Forest near the Wall. All of that wouldn't have happened in 14 years or so.

I'm with you that they might have been greatly weakened during the Long Night. If we assume that only a handful or even fewer Others survived that war then they might have not been able to rebuild their own numbers for a very long time. Male human children are hard to come by in the Heart of Winter, presumably. And we have no idea how many Others are needed to pull up the stunts they are doing right now. They might need hundreds or thousands to try to bring down the Wall. If that's the case then it would have taken them a very long time to prepare for that. Hell, even gathering a strong force of wights would have taken a long time unless we assume they have some sort of magical corpse detector.

[cyberdirectorfreedom]

I was thinking about this recently, and was wondering if it wasn't as simple as the fact that a long winter is coming. Here's a quote about the Others:

"The Others come when it is cold, most of the tales agree. Or else it gets cold when they come. Sometimes they appear during snowstorms and melt away when the skies clear. They hide from the light of the sun and emerge by night . . . or else night falls when they emerge."

Evidently, Others don't like heat or the sun, which makes sense, considering they're made of ice. If it's as simple as the Others needing winter to go south, it'd make sense that they'd need some time. It's possible that winter is coming to the entire world; the bays of Braavos were freezing over.

So, perhaps they were simply waiting for a winter that might last long enough for them to take over the entire world. They wouldn't want to make a bit of progress with their invasion, then have to retreat back to the Land of Always Winter for, say, five years while they wait out summer, all the while letting their foes regroup, make new weapons and plans to combat them, etc. Remaining a myth until the time comes that you can destroy your enemies without needing to take breaks sounds like a good idea to me.

Another idea I had is that perhaps when such a winter as we're about to be seeing comes about, summer comes to the somewhat inappropriately named Land of Always Winter. Maybe they're just coming south to remain in the coldest place they can. This might beg the question of why the Others would come south making war, rather than trying to be peaceful. Perhaps they tried during the first Long Night, and the Humans or the Children decided to make war instead (or perhaps, this is how they remember it, even if it's not how it really happened).

[Lord Varys]

6 minutes ago, cyberdirectorfreedom said:

I was thinking about this recently, and was wondering if it wasn't as simple as the fact that a long winter is coming. Here's a quote about the Others:

"The Others come when it is cold, most of the tales agree. Or else it gets cold when they come. Sometimes they appear during snowstorms and melt away when the skies clear. They hide from the light of the sun and emerge by night . . . or else night falls when they emerge."

Evidently, Others don't like heat or the sun, which makes sense, considering they're made of ice. If it's as simple as the Others needing winter to go south, it'd make sense that they'd need some time. It's possible that winter is coming to the entire world; the bays of Braavos were freezing over.

The bay of Braavos is likely to freeze every winter. They are about as far north as the Fingers.

Back in the Prologue a bunch of Others is out in the open in the middle of summer. Their power should increase in winter, to be sure, but it is actually more likely that they are causing this particular winter rather than using it to their advantage.