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F1 2016


Mandzipop

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Yup. It sounds like Bottas is their first choice and they have a possible option on Sainz, but they seem concerned that if Red Bull catch up or overtake, Sainz may be willing to bail on them and return to Red Bull. Then again, if Red Bull do get into a good position I doubt either Verstappen or Ricciardo will want to be leaving any time soon, so if Sainz wants a shot at a championship, this might be his only chance.

The other option is that Bottas does go to Mercedes and Williams accept Wehrlein, Nasr or di Resta as a substitute. Probably only di Resta has the experience that Williams want though, and Sainz won't see the point abandoning an okay-performing Toro Rosso for a declining Williams.

Mercedes losing Paddy Lowe to Williams is going to hurt though, and puts Williams in a stronger position for 2019 and maybe 2018, depending on when they start hardcore development of the following year's car. They're lucky James Allison is available to replace him.

Mercedes are in this very weird position of having a car that has to be a front-runner for winning the championship next year and they can't easily get a driver for it. Ludicrous.

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2 hours ago, Werthead said:

Mercedes are in this very weird position of having a car that has to be a front-runner for winning the championship next year and they can't easily get a driver for it. Ludicrous.

I guess this is largely the timing of Rosberg's departure to blame. Usually at this stage in the year all the best drivers have signed up and this seems to be the case this year. We don't even have the traditional "Button in limbo" situation this time around.

I'd have thought whoever they get for 2017 will be on a one year contract anyhow as surely there'll be a queue forming for 2018. Assuming that mercedes is still the top team - which may not be the case.

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6 minutes ago, red snow said:

I guess this is largely the timing of Rosberg's departure to blame. Usually at this stage in the year all the best drivers have signed up and this seems to be the case this year. We don't even have the traditional "Button in limbo" situation this time around.

I'd have thought whoever they get for 2017 will be on a one year contract anyhow as surely there'll be a queue forming for 2018. Assuming that mercedes is still the top team - which may not be the case.

Vettel and Alonso are both free after 2017, so I expect this to be the case...unless whoever gets the drive in 2017 wins the championship.

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10 hours ago, Werthead said:

The other option is that Bottas does go to Mercedes and Williams accept Wehrlein, Nasr or di Resta as a substitute. Probably only di Resta has the experience that Williams want though, and Sainz won't see the point abandoning an okay-performing Toro Rosso for a declining Williams.

If he could get a good long-term contract at Williams then I think it might make sense for Sainz to move, since there doesn't seem to be an immediate prospect of a vacancy at the main Red Bull team and they don't tend to keep their development drivers at Toro Roso for more than a few seasons.

I'd have thought whoever they get for 2017 will be on a one year contract anyhow as surely there'll be a queue forming for 2018. Assuming that mercedes is still the top team - which may not be the case.

When they think Hamilton might move on might be another factor, since they'd be wanting to make sure they had another potential champion by then even if they might be content to rely on Hamilton next year.

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10 hours ago, Werthead said:

Vettel and Alonso are both free after 2017, so I expect this to be the case...unless whoever gets the drive in 2017 wins the championship.

and they don't retire :)

In the sense of an interim driver Wehrlein seems the easiest choice. Although I doubt Bottas would pass up on the chance to drive the mercedes car even if only for a season. Still, I don't know if MErcedes will be the powerhouse next season with the changes and the fact red bull were catching. Plus, it's not that often a team has more than 5 years dominance. Knowing Alonso's luck Mercedes would take a nosedive just as he went to join them.

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When they think Hamilton might move on might be another factor, since they'd be wanting to make sure they had another potential champion by then even if they might be content to rely on Hamilton next year.

Hamilton recently said he wants to stay in F1 for another 10 years. I think he was flirting with leaving early (ish) and doing something in music, but realised that music is also a young man's game and he's probably left it too long to make a mark in that industry. So now he has a firm target of beating Schumacher's record.

I don't think he's going to manage it to be honest, even if he has to be the favourite next year that only gets him to 4 WCs and I can't see Mercedes staying on top much more than that. Unless he pulls another blinder of a team move (remember how insane everyone thought he was for moving to Mercedes in the first place?), it seems unlikely he'll get up there.

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3 hours ago, Werthead said:

Hamilton recently said he wants to stay in F1 for another 10 years. I think he was flirting with leaving early (ish) and doing something in music, but realised that music is also a young man's game and he's probably left it too long to make a mark in that industry. So now he has a firm target of beating Schumacher's record.

I don't think he's going to manage it to be honest, even if he has to be the favourite next year that only gets him to 4 WCs and I can't see Mercedes staying on top much more than that. Unless he pulls another blinder of a team move (remember how insane everyone thought he was for moving to Mercedes in the first place?), it seems unlikely he'll get up there.

I think Hamilton will wind up driving for ferrari before the end of his career. I think he has a love for the team and feels it's something onhis checklist. If he wins a championship with them he'd be a happy man. Schumacher's record is pretty hard to beat and the fact that Hamilton let one slip with the best car indicates he's not going to. although Schumacher always had a subservient team-mate to be fair.

I know Hamilton says he doesn't care who is team mate will be but I bet he'd be happy if it was werhlein or someone he can dominate and not have to worry about.

He could always become a music producer as well. Often acts are happy enough to get some backing. Although I feel like his time with his music friends tends to bring the worst out in him in terms of being pretentious.

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2 hours ago, red snow said:

I think Hamilton will wind up driving for ferrari before the end of his career.

I agree, I think whenever he leaves Mercedes I think it would likely to be Ferrari (unless he stays at Mercedes for the rest of his career).

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3 hours ago, williamjm said:

I agree, I think whenever he leaves Mercedes I think it would likely to be Ferrari (unless he stays at Mercedes for the rest of his career).

I guess it depends on how much longer he wants to race? If it's 5 years then he may as well stay where he is unless Mercedes drop a long way down the field. 10 years and I think he'd move just to keep things fresh. There must be a part of him knows the likes of Ricciardo and Verstappen will start breathing down his neck and become the next gen of top drivers. I think while he can hold his own against them he'll keep racing but he doesn't strike me as someone who'd stay in the sport once he knew he wasn't able to mix it up with the best of them. There's a small part of me that imagines Hamilton would actually like Alonso as a team mate (or at least in a car that's competitive) as desptite their differences Hamilton knows he's the person to beat from his era. And last time was a draw.

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Looks like the deal is in place, although not signed yet.

Massa will be returning to Williams for £5 million and apparently #1 status in the team. It's for one year to start with, but could be longer (he's only 35, for some reason I thought he was older, so could still have a good few years left in the sport).

Bottas will move to Mercedes in return for Williams getting next year's engine effectively for free (which is worth £14 million). That gives Williams the firepower to focus more on aerodynamics and downforce, which is where they were lacking last year. The only problem is that it's a bit late for major changes to the 2017 car, so this may benefit their 2018 package better.

At the same time Paddy Lowe is joining Williams from Mercedes. There may be some timing built into the deal as well (so originally Paddy had to see out a longer notice period with Mercedes, but as part of this deal it's not impossible he'll go earlier). James Allison will replace Lowe at Mercedes.

Based on this, I'll be expecting a stronger Williams in 2018, with some improvement this season also possible. The question right now is if Bottas's deal will be a multi-year one. Having a one-year deal makes sense because Vettel and Alonso are availabe in 2018, but the amount of money and energy Mercedes have put into securing Bottas is quite significant. The problems of managing Vettel or Alonso alongside Hamilton will also be extreme. Wolff might be better to take Bottas on either a two-year contract and then go after Ricciardo in 2019, or a three-year contract and go after Verstappen for 2020.

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Alternatively Massa is only on a 1 year contract and they simply swap him back out for Bottas in 2018. They clearly see Bottas as a stronger talent having initially chosen him over Massa for 2017.

I guess it depends when Hamilton's contract with Mercedes expires too? They are maybe keeping their options open in case he leaves in the next 1-2 years?

It does seem like a large investment from Mercedes but I guess having just won the driver's and constructor's title (again) they have a bit of money and given their limited options they would still rather have Bottas than any of the other (granted limited) options. I mean they could have got Mass for cheaper and had less antics to deal with. I think Mercedes are scared that Red Bull could challenge them for the constructor's next year and given they have arguably the strongest driver pairing - Mercedes can't afford to risk having an untested or mediocre driver. Bottas is the best available option in that sense - although I would have probably tried to get Sainz (although apparently Red Bull were loathe to give Mercedes anything after the engine issues last year).

To be honest I imagine Button either has 2017 planned or his "year off" contract with Mclaren is water-tight. Button is more than capable and from my memory produced the "easiest" working relationship with Hamilton.

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  • 3 weeks later...
1 hour ago, The BlackBear said:

Sorry if already posted, but some of the rule change stuff.

 

I'm hoping it does shake things up as I've definitely fallen out of love quite a bit with F1.

I hope it makes things more competitive but experience suggests all these overhauls achieve is shuffling up which team will be dominant (much like the engine changes unseated Red Bull). the one thing that will hopefully help is the reduction in development on the car within a season. This makes it easier for others to catch up - which used to happen more often before the limitations were imposed.

Personally I wish they had just kept things the same but lift development restrictions and possibly make the tyres more durable. It was clear by the end of the season that Red Bull were closing in on Mercedes and I think we'd have had a 2017 season where some tracks withmore "low speed" corners would benefit Red Bull over Mercedes. With the changes, it's all been thrown up in the air - anyone could have the best car next year. Which is exciting to the lead up for the first race but really dull if it means that team wins every race by a comfortable margin for the duration of the season.

I was also under the impression that aerodynamic cars were bad for overtaking. Maybe if they still have DRS it won't be as significant?

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1 hour ago, The BlackBear said:

Yeah I'm not quite sure how this'll not impact overtaking pretty drastically. Wider cars are obviously harder to pass,  and with more downforce they'll be slower on the straights and quick in the corners, which reduces braking zones.

The rules are basically "how do we stop mercedes from winning" which is stupid as they only got into this scenario where engines were dominant off the back of "how do we stop Red Bull from winning".

I could care less about faster cars if there isn't any overtaking occurring on track. Was this something that came out as a top factor from surveys of the F1 viewers? Seems more like an Ecclestone thing. Hopefully it was at least a driver request although from comments over the last few years the main driver complaint was them having to manage the tyres too much. The tricky thing is guaging whether the teams genuinely think it's good for the sport. I get the impression Red Bull like it because it suits them and Mercedes hate it because it doesn't suit them. Not sure how the non mercedes teams feel about it. I guess Mclaren will take any opportunity to take the strain off their engine development (I think pundits have said the aerodynamic package appears strong on the mclaren)

 

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Everything affects everything else. Red Bull's dominance came from analysing the actual tracks and realising that they could get away with reducing sheer straight-line speed in favour of being able to hit the corners as fast as possible (which required a very counter-intuitive way of diving, which Vettel nailed and Webber didn't). That's remained the case: there's only a few tracks that Red Bull's design philosophy is uncompetitive on and these are effectively disposable when the other 15-16 tracks are ones they can dominate. Mercedes' approach has been to simply produce overwhelming power and a more efficient power recovery unit. But if downforce becomes dominant again, Red Bull would likely rise to the top again.

Ferrari need to sort their shit out ASAP though. Force India seem to think they can surpass Ferrari next year unless Ferrari have addressed their shortcomings. With some of their best technical people leaving at the worst possible moment for the development of the 2017 car, it's possible that Ferrari will continue going backwards.

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1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Everything affects everything else. Red Bull's dominance came from analysing the actual tracks and realising that they could get away with reducing sheer straight-line speed in favour of being able to hit the corners as fast as possible (which required a very counter-intuitive way of diving, which Vettel nailed and Webber didn't). That's remained the case: there's only a few tracks that Red Bull's design philosophy is uncompetitive on and these are effectively disposable when the other 15-16 tracks are ones they can dominate. Mercedes' approach has been to simply produce overwhelming power and a more efficient power recovery unit. But if downforce becomes dominant again, Red Bull would likely rise to the top again.

Ferrari need to sort their shit out ASAP though. Force India seem to think they can surpass Ferrari next year unless Ferrari have addressed their shortcomings. With some of their best technical people leaving at the worst possible moment for the development of the 2017 car, it's possible that Ferrari will continue going backwards.

The shocking thing was that Ferrari's engine is only supposed to be 10 bhp off mercedes. This means there must be a severe problem with the aerodynamics. I guess there were some dubious tactical decisions from them last year too - but not any worse than some of the calls Red Bull made regarding Ricciardo.

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It's official.

Bottas to Mercedes on a 1-year deal with an option for more. I suspect that will only be activated if he does outstandingly well this year (either wins the WC or comes close).

Massa back at Williams also on a 1-year deal. If Bottas doesn't do well at Mercedes I can see him returning to Williams and Massa out again, or Massa potentially staying for another season or two beyond that.

Wehrlein has moved to Sauber, with financial support from both Mercedes to Williams (including giving them their engine for free, which means Williams have an extra £14 million+ to put in elsewhere) and Sauber. If Wehrlein performs well as Sauber, I suspect the plan is for him to move maybe to Williams. That depends on their Martini deal, which requires them to have at least one driver over 25. If he does outstandingly, he may potentially move straight up to Mercedes.

Alonso and Vettel are both free for 2018, so I suspect we'll see them circling Mercedes as well. Alonso I think is more likely, as his temperament has matured as he's gotten older and Mercedes know that Hamilton versus Alonso in his last 1-3 years in F1 for the championship will be top box office. Vettel would probably just be a massive, petulant headache for them. Haha. Maybe Vettel to McLaren in 2018? That'd be interesting.

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Seems a sensible outcome overall and one that Williams has done very well out of. I'd say Bottas was taking a risk until it's clear he's never going to have a better chance. I think any driver with the exception of red bull would risk not having a drive in 2018 to be in a mercedes for a year. Like Wert says, Bottas will need to do really well to keep that seat as in mopping up all points when Hamilton has issues.

I also think that Hamilton and Alonso on the same team would be entertaining in of itself. always nice to have another constructor in the mix but seeing a rematch of those two in the same car is as close to a heavyweight match up as you can get in F1

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