KG at the ToJ mean Lyanna didn't die birthing Jon...

[LiveFirstDieLater]

5 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

I have no reason not to. It's not like GRRM made any earth-shattering reveal by stating the obvious, since Lyanna gave birth only after Rhaegar's death.

Well stating flat out that baby Aegon is for sure dead is maybe not earth shattering, but still a reveal...

And you still assume Lyanna only got pregnant once... I'm still pulling for her having had two kids. This doesn't really change that at all

[Ygrain]

2 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Well stating flat out that baby Aegon is for sure dead is maybe not earth shattering, but still a reveal...

I was referring to identifying the woman as Elia, because Ran himself is not sure about the validity of Aegon being dead. 

2 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

And you still assume Lyanna only got pregnant once... I'm still pulling for her having had two kids. This doesn't really change that at all

I don't assume anything, the text gives zero clue about Lyanna being heavily pregnant when she disappeared, and even if you do assume an earlier pregnancy, it would mean that she gave birth to two boys, Aegon 2 and Jon. Somehow, I don't see where this Aegon 2 comes in.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

50 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

I was referring to identifying the woman as Elia, because Ran himself is not sure about the validity of Aegon being dead. 

I don't assume anything, the text gives zero clue about Lyanna being heavily pregnant when she disappeared, and even if you do assume an earlier pregnancy, it would mean that she gave birth to two boys, Aegon 2 and Jon. Somehow, I don't see where this Aegon 2 comes in.

I would dispute that if Lyanna got pregnant at Harrenhall she would have to have been heavily pregnant at her disappearance... But it seems Elia was heavily pregnant at the Tourney.

And I'm willing to accept the vision being Elia and now dead Aegon (he sites the same source for both bits of info, so why believe one and not the other...). It was only an ancillary clue anyway, if anything leaving it out simplifies the arguement. 

but I never suggested she gave birth to two boys...

Still continuing my work on a full explanation of my thinking, but just getting through Dany's first three chapters is taking forever there are so many relevant quotes...

but thank you again for the intel event responses! 

[Ygrain]

26 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

I would dispute that if Lyanna got pregnant at Harrenhall she would have to have been heavily pregnant at her disappearance... But it seems Elia was heavily pregnant at the Tourney.

Well, she gave birth about a month since the Sack, Rebellion lasted for about a year, Jon was conceived after its start. So, Lyanna's hypothetical first pregnancy couldn't have lasted long into the Rebellion. But, you're aiming for Dany not being born when we were told, right?

26 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

And I'm willing to accept the vision being Elia and now dead Aegon (he sites the same source for both bits of info, so why believe one and not the other...). It was only an ancillary clue anyway, if anything leaving it out simplifies the arguement. 

Because one bit was supported by the forwarded convo, the other was not.

26 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

but I never suggested she gave birth to two boys...

Well, Rhaegar was not present for Jon's birth, and we see him with a baby boy, so, it would make for two boys :-)

26 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Still continuing my work on a full explanation of my thinking, but just getting through Dany's first three chapters is taking forever there are so many relevant quotes...

but thank you again for the intel event responses! 

You're welcome. 

[LiveFirstDieLater]

40 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Well, she gave birth about a month since the Sack, Rebellion lasted for about a year, Jon was conceived after its start. So, Lyanna's hypothetical first pregnancy couldn't have lasted long into the Rebellion. But, you're aiming for Dany not being born when we were told, right?

Because one bit was supported by the forwarded convo, the other was not.

Well, Rhaegar was not present for Jon's birth, and we see him with a baby boy, so, it would make for two boys :-)

You're welcome. 

Ah, so the rebellion being about a year turns out to be a very rough estimation of a year, and even then, only if you start counting from when Jon Arryn called the banners after Aerys killed the Starks (B&R) and company. There is quite a bit of time leading up to that, with abductions, threats, snowfalls etc. since the tourney at Harrenhall. And the ToJ showdown took place after the end of the war.

Im suggesting that a few months after the tourney, Lyanna discovers she is pregnant, and that is why she runs off with Rhaegar. 

Resulting in Jon being born about mid way through 282.

leaving plenty of time for Rhaegar to ride off and die... 

And Lyanna to die giving birth to Dany at the Tower of Joy...

but hey just a theory,

I had thought that Dany saw Rhaegar and Lyanna in the vision from the house of the undying before Rhaegar rode off to die at the trident... But I guess it's just dead Elia and Aegon with him, oh well

 

 

[Ygrain]

36 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Ah, so the rebellion being about a year turns out to be a very rough estimation of a year, and even then, only if you start counting from when Jon Arryn called the banners after Aerys killed the Starks (B&R) and company. There is quite a bit of time leading up to that, with abductions, threats, snowfalls etc. since the tourney at Harrenhall. And the ToJ showdown took place after the end of the war.

An earlier SSM stated that there was about a year between HH and Lyanna's abduction, and another year between the abduction and the Sack (pretty consistent with Jaime being 15 at HH and 17 at the Sack), but that first year seems to have been condensed in the World Book into an unknown number of months, because Rhaegar eventually returning to the Riverlands can mean almost any amount of time. On the other hand, Aegon was supposed to be about a year old at the Sack, i.e. born just prior the Rebellion, so I guess we are back at the usual "GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope". In fact, it seems that the more details he adds, the messier the whole timeline becomes, and I fear that there might be a couple of retcons on the way, as well.

36 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Im suggesting that a few months after the tourney, Lyanna discovers she is pregnant, and that is why she runs off with Rhaegar. 

Resulting in Jon being born about mid way through 282.

leaving plenty of time for Rhaegar to ride off and die... 

And Lyanna to die giving birth to Dany at the Tower of Joy...

but hey just a theory,

I'm afraid that you are not the first to suggest it... no comment.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

34 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

An earlier SSM stated that there was about a year between HH and Lyanna's abduction, and another year between the abduction and the Sack (pretty consistent with Jaime being 15 at HH and 17 at the Sack), but that first year seems to have been condensed in the World Book into an unknown number of months, because Rhaegar eventually returning to the Riverlands can mean almost any amount of time. On the other hand, Aegon was supposed to be about a year old at the Sack, i.e. born just prior the Rebellion, so I guess we are back at the usual "GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope". In fact, it seems that the more details he adds, the messier the whole timeline becomes, and I fear that there might be a couple of retcons on the way, as well.

I'm afraid that you are not the first to suggest it... no comment.

It's fair enough, I guess I would rather just work with the text than the SSMs because  one more causing problems always seems to appear out of thin air... things like the year between HH and the abduction don't make any sense... With Ned Stark's age (18 at the Tourney, 35 in the series, HH has to be end of 281... And Brandon Stark was 20 when he dueled Petyr and when he died) or the World Book which says the False spring only lasted two turns before the end of 281.

I would find it hard to believe I'm the first to suggest this, seems like a lot of clues to me... But Tinfoil loves company

(I tend to think while GRRM might not be an expert on travel time, I think the timeline generally works out, it's intentionally planted bad assumptions that cause most of the problems, but shit what do I know)

[bowlwoman]

On 4/22/2016 at 2:03 PM, LiveFirstDieLater said:

It's fair enough, I guess I would rather just work with the text than the SSMs because  one more causing problems always seems to appear out of thin air... things like the year between HH and the abduction don't make any sense... With Ned Stark's age (18 at the Tourney, 35 in the series, HH has to be end of 281... And Brandon Stark was 20 when he dueled Petyr and when he died) or the World Book which says the False spring only lasted two turns before the end of 281.

I would find it hard to believe I'm the first to suggest this, seems like a lot of clues to me... But Tinfoil loves company

(I tend to think while GRRM might not be an expert on travel time, I think the timeline generally works out, it's intentionally planted bad assumptions that cause most of the problems, but shit what do I know)

My question at this point is which is more canon: a SSM or the World Book?

According to The World Book, Rhaegar's abduction of Lyanna took place most likely within a month or two of the Tourney at HH.

Quote

 

In the annals of Westeros, 281 AC is known as the Year of the False Spring. Winter had held the land in its icy grip for close on two years, but now at last the snows were melting, the woods were greening, the days were growing longer. Though the white ravens had not yet flown, there were many even at the Citadel of Oldtown who believed that winter's end was night.

As warm winds blew from the south, lords and knights from throughout the Seven Kingdoms made their way toward Harrenhal to compete in Lord Whent's great tournament on the shore of the Gods Eye, which promised to be the largest and most magnificent competition since the time of Aegon the Unlikely.

At the tourney's opening ceremonies, King Aerys made a great public show of Ser Jaime Lannister's investiture as a Sworn Brother of his Kingsguard. The young knight said his vows before the royal pavilion, kneeling on the green grass in his white armor as half the lords of the realm looked on.

For seven days the finest knights and noblest lords of the Seven Kingdoms contended with lance and sword in the fields beneath the towering walls of Harrenhal.

The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King's Landing...

...With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell...

 

The "lasted less than two turns" lets us know that the false spring was only 5-7 weeks long. The tournament itself lasted a week, and travel didn't start until the warm winds were already blowing. We know that the tournament took place during the false spring, because Jaime Lannister knelt on green grass when he took his vows for the KG. We can now place Harrenhal as taking place sometime in months 11 and 12, 281, and Lyanna's abduction took place right at the end of 281 or beginning of 282.

Brandon Stark was at Riverrun when his betrothal to Catelyn Tully was announced. He had his duel with Littlefinger, who spent at least two weeks recovering before being kicked out of Riverrun (he had to knock Lysa up and Lysa had to find out about the pregnancy, so probably two to four weeks after he was injured). Brandon left Riverrun after the duel to meet up with his father who was traveling down from Winterfell to Riverrun for Brandon/Catelyn's wedding. On their way back to Riverrun, Brandon heard about Lyanna's abduction and ran off to King's Landing to confront Rhaegar (or so he thought).

Assuming the announcement of Brandon/Catelyn's betrothal and Brandon and LF's duel happened after the tournament, then Brandon has no more than a month + time it took the news of the abduction to reach him for his travels: leaving RR, heading north and meeting up with his father, heading back to RR, hearing the news, and going to KL. The trip from KL to Winterfell took Robert three months with his entire court, so a stripped down retinue heading to RR should be on the road for no more than two months total, and Brandon met his father partway on the trip down to RR.

How long it took Brandon to meet up with his father is important because it establishes the amount of time that LF had to recover from his duel wounds and start his journey home to The Fingers, which, by very interesting coincidence, the road from Riverrun to The Vale intersects the King's Road at Harrenhal. Given two to four weeks of recovery and a slower travel pace from having been severely injured, he would probably have been close to Harrenhal around the end of the year, just about the time that Lyanna and Rhaegar met up.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

4 hours ago, bowlwoman said:

My question at this point is which is more canon: a SSM or the World Book?

According to The World Book, Rhaegar's abduction of Lyanna took place most likely within a month or two of the Tourney at HH.

The "lasted less than two turns" lets us know that the false spring was only 5-7 weeks long. The tournament itself lasted a week, and travel didn't start until the warm winds were already blowing. We know that the tournament took place during the false spring, because Jaime Lannister knelt on green grass when he took his vows for the KG. We can now place Harrenhal as taking place sometime in months 11 and 12, 281, and Lyanna's abduction took place right at the end of 281 or beginning of 282.

Brandon Stark was at Riverrun when his betrothal to Catelyn Tully was announced. He had his duel with Littlefinger, who spent at least two weeks recovering before being kicked out of Riverrun (he had to knock Lysa up and Lysa had to find out about the pregnancy, so probably two to four weeks after he was injured). Brandon left Riverrun after the duel to meet up with his father who was traveling down from Winterfell to Riverrun for Brandon/Catelyn's wedding. On their way back to Riverrun, Brandon heard about Lyanna's abduction and ran off to King's Landing to confront Rhaegar (or so he thought).

Assuming the announcement of Brandon/Catelyn's betrothal and Brandon and LF's duel happened after the tournament, then Brandon has no more than a month + time it took the news of the abduction to reach him for his travels: leaving RR, heading north and meeting up with his father, heading back to RR, hearing the news, and going to KL. The trip from KL to Winterfell took Robert three months with his entire court, so a stripped down retinue heading to RR should be on the road for no more than two months total, and Brandon met his father partway on the trip down to RR.

How long it took Brandon to meet up with his father is important because it establishes the amount of time that LF had to recover from his duel wounds and start his journey home to The Fingers, which, by very interesting coincidence, the road from Riverrun to The Vale intersects the King's Road at Harrenhal. Given two to four weeks of recovery and a slower travel pace from having been severely injured, he would probably have been close to Harrenhal around the end of the year, just about the time that Lyanna and Rhaegar met up.

So I think its difficult to commit to hard numbers, especially for travel times.

However, it helps immensely to try and establish the order of events and a basic timetable.

We don't know much about Lyanna's disappearance and Brandon's little rampage to King's Landing... I think it is likely that Lyanna ran off and met Rhaegar, but we know Brandon somehow knew who it was she ran off to meet. After all he shows up at the Red Keep screaming for Rhaegar to come out and die.

If you are suggesting Little Finger was somehow involved, I'm not sure I see why that would be the case, but I guess it's possible?

But assuming Lem Lemoncloak is in fact Richard Lonmouth, something I'm pretty confident of; He was likely one of Rhaegar's companions when Lyanna disappeared, putting him in a place to know what happened, and Jaime may very well recognize him, if and when we see him again.

I propose that the reason for Lyanna's disappearance, was her finding out she was pregnant.

[Ygrain]

"on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands" doesn't say anything about where Rhaegar was headed or how long it took him to get there, so I don't think we can safely conclude anything about the timing here. Similarly, we don't know when Brandon travelled to Riverrun - was it right after the tourney? Or did he spend some time visiting/travelling/returning to Winterfell?

Plus, another fact: even if the earlier SSM placing one year between HH and Lyanna's disappearance is now outdated, the outdated info is the time span, not the fact that in the author's mind, Lyanna couldn't have got pregnant at HH because she would have given birth long before her disappearance.