The Old Tongue

Illyrio's motives in GoT

87 posts in this topic

 

On 11/4/2016 at 5:22 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

 

 

Fantastic Job LM.

i think i need to do a reread of the entire series just to make sense to every action Varys/Illyrio conspiracy made.

I feel like some of them are a bit inconsistant.

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Beautifully done LM.............question....where do you think Wex fits in?  Sounds like he may very well be a bird of varys...?!

Edited by Bonkers

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23 hours ago, Bonkers said:

Beautifully done LM.............question....where do you think Wex fits in?  Sounds like he may very well be a bird of varys...?!

Theon's squire? He was born mute, wasn't he? Why do you think he's Varys’s informant? 

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1 hour ago, Castellan said:

Can we expect an installment covering ADWD?

I have to do Feast first. :)

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Ah! I thought you had skimmed over it. Can't wait. Well actually I can and will.

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I think that the hatching of the three dragons really changed Illyrio's plans.

He has one interesting saying with his conversítion with Tyrion something like: I never thought that this fragile girl could survive among the Dothrakis.

He wants Aegon on the Iron Throne. Well, if Aegon was a true Targaryen Viserys and Daenerys would not cause any problem, because in this case they are behind the son of Rhaegar, as heirs of the throne.

But Aegon is probably not a true Targaryen, so it is better to get rid of the true ones. Illyrio probably did not really wish  their death, especially not the death of Daenerys, but they were standing in the way of his plans. 

At best Daenerys could join her fellow  widowed Khalessee-s  in Vaes Dothrak, if she lives long enough among the savage conditions that Dothrakis offer.

Oh yes, Illyrio advised Viserys to stay in Pentos, but Varys also advised Tyron not to visit his father at night at the Tower of the Hand...

Viserys was expected to make some idiocy which "awakens the Dragon" in Khal Drogo, and this is what happened.

Daenerys on the other hand has survived, what's more the dragons are hatched. The situation is really different, nothing proves a Targaryen like dragons.

I think we can trust the words of Ser Spy this time, he said Daenerys, that  If Illyro believed that the dragons could be hatched, he would do anything to get them hatched.

 

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Well yes, I'd have to agree, if he thought dragons were hatchable he'd be planning Aegon's grand return to Westeros on dragon back.

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9 hours ago, Castellan said:

Well yes, I'd have to agree, if he thought dragons were hatchable he'd be planning Aegon's grand return to Westeros on dragon back.

That's  what Jorah told us... 

Quote

“If he'd known they were like to hatch, he'd would have sat on them himself.” 

 

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On 5/7/2016 at 8:51 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

I have to do Feast first. :)

Looking forward to it. Amazing work as usual LM.

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On 04/05/2016 at 3:38 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Theon's squire? He was born mute, wasn't he? Why do you think he's Varys’s informant? 

I don't think that being born a mute would be a problem, it just may mean he doesn't have to remove his tongue (like the other little birds).  It makes sense, to me anyways, that if Varys has birds everywhere he must have some in the North.  The Iron Islands infiltrated, and then he has info about Theon's movements/actions, and if Rickon is still alive, and Bran too, then that plays in well with Varys wanting to create chaos in the realm before Faegon comes back.  He seems to be overlooked as a Little Bird to me, because GRRM has given him storytime. 

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On 6/15/2016 at 5:50 PM, Bonkers said:

I don't think that being born a mute would be a problem, it just may mean he doesn't have to remove his tongue (like the other little birds).  It makes sense, to me anyways, that if Varys has birds everywhere he must have some in the North.  The Iron Islands infiltrated, and then he has info about Theon's movements/actions, and if Rickon is still alive, and Bran too, then that plays in well with Varys wanting to create chaos in the realm before Faegon comes back.  He seems to be overlooked as a Little Bird to me, because GRRM has given him storytime. 

Well, we do not know that he has little birds everywhere. We know that he had little mice in Pentos, and that he has little birds in the Red Keep. And I suspect he has little birds in the Citadel and at the Starry Sept (or at least extremely well-placed sources). But I don't see any suggestion that he has little birds anywhere else. 

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Fantastic re-read Lost Melnibonean! Really great thread, I look forward to following and reading your next instalments! Fascinating and so much insight drawn together coherently! I have always wondered about the Aerion Brigtflame line and whether it would come up, it seems that perhaps it already is! :-D 

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Since we learn much later in Dance that Varys’s first spy network in Pentos consisted of little mice rather than birds, and since toward the end of Feast we see Shadrich has arrived at Robert Arryn's court, we should note certain details about the hedge knight Brienne encounters on her way to Duskendale...

Quote

"Ser Shadrich of the Shady Glen. Some call me the Mad Mouse." He turned his shield to show her his sigil, a large white mouse with fierce red eyes, on bendy brown and blue. "The brown is for the lands I've roamed, the blue for the rivers that I've crossed. The mouse is me."

"And are you mad?"

"Oh, quite. Your common mouse will run from blood and battle. The mad mouse seeks them out."

"It would seem he seldom finds them."

"I find enough. 'Tis true, I am no tourney knight. I save my valor for the battlefield, woman."

...

"Aye, love of gold. Unlike your good Ser Creighton, I did fight upon the Blackwater, but on the losing side. My ransom ruined me. You know who Varys is, I trust? The eunuch has offered a plump bag of gold for this girl you've never heard of. I am not a greedy man. If some oversized wench would help me find this naughty child, I would split the Spider's coin with her."

Brienne I, Feast IV

Is the Mad Mouse Varys’s agent? Or is he simply hoping to collect a reward? 

Edited by Lost Melnibonean

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1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Since we learn much later in Dance that Varys’s first spy network in Pentos consisted of little mice rather than birds, and since toward the end of Feast we see Shadrich has arrived at Robert Arryn's court, we should note certain details about the hedge knight Brienne encounters on her way to Duskendale...

Brienne I, Feast IV

Is the Mad Mouse Varys’s agent? Or is he simply hoping to collect a reward? 

Hard to say. Since Varys has gone underground would there still even be a reward? Does Ser Shadrich even know that?

Spoiler

It is certainly hinted heavily in the last Sansa spoiler chapter that it is becoming common knowledge that the largesse of the event is being supplied by Littlefinger. Also any time spent talking to Lothor Brune or father Kettleblack would show him that Baelish is a pretty decent guy to follow for a sellsword. If money is all he cares about he has found a good patron in Baelish. He's safe in the Vale with winter coming. The Vale is one of the few realms that have been untouched by the war.

Why would he give all that up for the promise of a bag of gold dragons... unless there is more to him than a bag of dragons. Besides if he does well enough in the tourney he could end up on the Brotherhood of Winged Knights. 

 

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8 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

Hard to say. Since Varys has gone underground would there still even be a reward? Does Ser Shadrich even know that?

  Hide contents

It is certainly hinted heavily in the last Sansa spoiler chapter that it is becoming common knowledge that the largesse of the event is being supplied by Littlefinger. Also any time spent talking to Lothor Brune or father Kettleblack would show him that Baelish is a pretty decent guy to follow for a sellsword. If money is all he cares about he has found a good patron in Baelish. He's safe in the Vale with winter coming. The Vale is one of the few realms that have been untouched by the war.

Why would he give all that up for the promise of a bag of gold dragons... unless there is more to him than a bag of dragons. Besides if he does well enough in the tourney he could end up on the Brotherhood of Winged Knights. 

 

Very good points. 

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17 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Very good points. 

:cheers:

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In Cersei IV, Feast 17, we get a hint about a plot Cersei is cooking up with Balon Swann for Dorne.

Quote

Grand Maester Pycelle's lips were still quivering, yet somehow he found his tongue. "As you command. Prince Doran has taken his brother's unruly bastards into custody, yet Sunspear still seethes. The prince writes that he cannot hope to calm the waters until he receives the justice that was promised him."

"To be sure." A tiresome creature, this prince. "His long wait is almost done. I am sending Balon Swann to Sunspear, to deliver him the head of Gregor Clegane." Ser Balon would have another task as well, but that part was best left unsaid.

Later, we will be able to connect the dots, but for now, we should note that this passage suggests that the plot is known only to Cersei and Balon.

Edited by Lost Melnibonean

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19 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

In Cersei IV, Feast 17, we get a hint about a plot Cersei is cooking up with Balon Swann for Dorne.

Later, we will be able to connect the dots, but for now, we should note that this passage suggests that the plot is known only to Cersei and Balon.

 

yet if dorans informant is right IRRC, they should enconunter some outlaws in the Kingswood that would attack them on their way back and kill doran son.

could balon arrange this by himself?

 

i feel like at least Qyburn should know about this as well

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5 hours ago, LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse said:

 

yet if dorans informant is right IRRC, they should enconunter some outlaws in the Kingswood that would attack them on their way back and kill doran son.

could balon arrange this by himself?

 

i feel like at least Qyburn should know about this as well

Good point. But I wouldn't rule out Balon, since he is a son of Stoneheart in the Stormlands. 

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