Young Griff Theory

[Guest jasonothegreat]

SPOILERS

 

So, I was re-reading Dance of Dragons trying to see if GRR Martin was plopping any hints throughout the book about the very, interesting, ending. So I skip back to the end while doing this and realize something. isn't Aegon's story a little convenient? Aegon apparently escaped King's-Landing, went to Pentos, got raised to be a perfect King and now eighteen years later he is coming back to take his Throne. But is it truly his? I mean it is a riveting origin story, but it's not like GRR Martin at all to have such hope in his tales. Now we are led to believe that in the time between Tywin Lannister arriving at King's Landing and Tywin sacking King's Landing, Aegon escaped with the help of Varys. But, why not Rhaenys? that was my first question, Rhaenys at the time was the only female Targaryen besides Queen Rhaelle at the time. She would be key in either proving Aegon's legitimacy or solidifying an Alliance for when Aegon would attack (She is about the same age as Willas and Garlan Tyrell). So why only save Aegon? one might argue its because Rhaenys was described as very "Dornish Looking". But King's Landing is the largest city in Westeros and one of the largest Trading Ports, and there isn't a single little Dornish girl anywhere, not even in the brothels? Now a second piece of evidence. The convenient double for Aegon, A father with many sons just selling his son away for Arbor Gold? Where were the supposed many brothers of this baby, or the mother, or anyone for that matter who would let the father do such a thing? Third Piece of Evidence, Jaime Lannister. Jaime was the only Kingsguard knight left in the Red Keep, Where was he? I understand that Varys probably wouldn't trust Jaime but such a heavy matter and he didn't even notice this? the Guy charged with protecting the Royal Family? Yes I know this is a weak piece of evidence. But Now Let me say what I really think is happening.

 

Aegon, is described as a Handsome Valyrian looking man. But it has been specifically mentioned that almost all Valyrians are violet-eyed and silver-haired and attractive. But where is his Dornish Half? if Rhaenys was as Dornish looking as we are made out to believe how could the second child look completely like the father?  What I say here is that Elia obviously had some kind of dominant gene. I mean if we look at Baelor Breakspear, even he was a good mix, light skinned but brown of hair. Now yes his Brothers were silver-haired but we can then presume there was a certain dominance of the Valyrian ethnicity with the children of Daeron and Mariah. Whereas with Rhaegar and Elia's ilk we can deduce with Rhaenys likeliness that the Dornish features would be dominant, So if anything, Aegon would have looked like Baelor Breakspear, probably. Stronger evidence is that Elia was described as an ill and weakly woman, also almost all of Aerys and Rhaelle's children were sickly and freakish. Meaning Rhaenys and Aegon didn't exactly have good genes to live very long. 

SO WHAT I SUGGEST is that Aegon is nothing more than bastard from a Lysene pleasure-house. The Lysene are described as very Valyrian looking and Varys himself is from there. Varys at the end of the war worked with Mopatis to get a Lysene boy from a pleasure-house (to Ensure fair features), and had him raised to become a perfect King. Told him the lie and made the boy grow up to truly believe he is Aegon Targaryen. This would explain why Varys was sort of fanatical when describing Aegon to Kevan. This leads me to my second point, Varys is cold and calculating, would he take the chance of putting his entire plan on a Targaryen? The Targaryens with a history of Mental illness? As King Jaehaerys once put it    

"madness and greatness were two sides of the same coin. Every time a new Targaryen is born, the gods toss the coin in the air and the world holds its breath to see how it will land."

Would Varys put all the hopes and trainings onto a boy who had a fifty fifty chance of being bat-shit crazy? wouldn't it be safer to take a little bastard-boy at a young age, a lot less of a chance of madness. What if Aegon, Jon Connington, Lemore and everyone else were in the blue to this as well. The best secret is kept when you don't speak it. Meaning only Varys and Mopatis know the true identity of Aegon. Aegon is simply the well constructed plan of Varys to put a truly great King on the Throne. after all, I doubt he was able to conjure up the entire plan in the short time period before the sacking. This took years I believe, Maybe Aegon only became Aegon when he was a toddler a few years after the sacking, or maybe even as a young child. We will only know when Aegon meets a dragon. But I believe that this something the GRR Martin would do, it fits his usual plot twists nicely.

 

 

What do you think?

 

 

 

EDIT: THE MOST DAMNING PIECE OF EVIDENCE I MISSED. VARYS NEVER CALLS AEGON A TARGARYEN WHEN TALKING WITH KEVAN. Varys only mentions how Aegon was raised to be a perfect King. Not that he was a Targaryen, Varys didn't even make a Dragon metaphor when talking with Kevan. Why? Because Aegon isn't a Targaryen or a Blackfyre or any other Dragon affiliation!

[The Glad King]

Well there already is the fAegon theory (which I am not too familiar with). The theory basically states that Aegon is not actually Aegon (I don't know much more about it). I like your points, but you'll need a bit more justification to prove that he's from a Lysene pleasure house. Other than pure speculation, there is no hints or indications on that that I can think of. Overall though, I agree that the Aegon smuggling story does seem quite fishy. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

If not Aegon, who is The Blackfyre? 

[aryagonnakill#2]

I actually think Rhaenys is a good piece of evidence that the real Aegon died.  Why in her last moments would Rhaella be with a random child and let her daughter die alone?  I think any mother would have been with her daughter not the fake.

[SonofMag]

1 hour ago, jasonothegreat said:

What I say here is that Elia obviously had some kind of dominant gene. I mean if we look at Baelor Breakspear, even he was a good mix, light skinned but brown of hair. Now yes his Brothers were silver-haired but we can then presume there was a certain dominance of the Valyrian ethnicity with the children of Daeron and Mariah. Whereas with Rhaegar and Elia's ilk we can deduce with Rhaenys likeliness that the Dornish features would be dominant,

There's SO much wrong with this. The  genetics of hair colour are complex, and even the simplest form of inheritance - monogenic, with just two alleles - can result in 3 different genetic variants for just one gene. We can't deduce anything from the appearance of one sibling. You can't bandy that word around without the understanding to back it up.

[Neolaina]

I've never given a shit about the Blackfyre theory - hell, I don't even give a fraction of one - but I will say this: Having read it before, I'd be hard-pressed into believing that if Aegon isn't Rhaegar's son, he's only a whore's son. There's a pretty substantial argument with the Blackfyre thread(s).

Now, for the OP:

1) The assumption is that Varys swapped out a baby for Aegon, before the storming of the Red Keep. So, both those kids are dead, and only one of them's actually a Targaryen. A decoy died in Aegon's place. That's quite clear, by Varys' own admission. Now, you ask why only Aegon? Aegon was months old. Rhaenys wasn't. It'd have been a hell of a lot harder to convince people that her corpse was actually her. Aegon was the babe who was more feasibly able to be swapped. Further, there was more worth to keep Rhaegar's son alive over his daughter, for a variety of reasons. Trying to smuggle out one kid, before the Keep fell, I'll add, would have been difficult enough.

2) Did you forget the conversation Arya eavesdropped in on, between Varys and Illyrio? You know, the one about Varys needing more kids? Stealing a baby and killing the mother would have been child's play - womp womp - for Illyrio's agents. I can't consider your point here to be evidence of anything that supports your conclusion at all. We've known how Varys gets his little birds from Book 1. It's just as likely he used one of these kids to replace Aegon, than to raise some random kid, pretending that kid is Aegon.

3) Guarding, and then subsequently killing his king. Oh, and Rossart. Can't forget Rossart. Horribly weak, but still less so than point 2.

You're not doin' well at this point, bud.

- Valyrians are by no means almost all purple-eyed and silver haired. These are traits common among them, but it's by no means almost universal. So I'd argue that point. Further, and as someone who's argued genetics in the world of Planetos as well, I've often been responded to with the following: real world genetics and whatever's going on in Planetos do not necessarily need to line up. Dornish genes not expressing themselves over Valyrian ones are irrelevant. I would also argue looking into the histories we've been given, where multiple generations of children fail to resemble one parent or the other. It's a poor platform for arguing atop of.

- Rhaegar wasn't weakly, nor is Dany. Despite the incest between Aerys and Rhaelle, that didn't always equate to bad genetic disposition for their children, and subsequent generational progeny.

- Elia being sick and weakly from birthing children is a pretty natural phenomenon for some women. Not all women give birth well. It's a taxing process.

- Your justification for replacing Aegon with a Lyseni child can easily be flipped on its' head: using a Lyseni child to replace Aegon to keep Aegon safe. Bonus points for the fact that Varys' livelihood was due to Aerys hiring him, more bonus points for Varys' consistent, correct analysis for what was going on in KL during the Rebellion; never forget that Varys warned Aerys about opening the gates to Tywin. Even more bonus points for the fact that many readers believe that had Rhaegar won on the Trident, he would have attempted to institute a council with the focus of having Aerys abdicate; some believe this was something referenced between Rhaegar and Jaime's last conversation while Rhaegar was leaving KL, to say nothing of the "truth" behind the Tourney at Harrenhal. 

Okay, that last part might be a stretch, but it's been discussed at length, and is firmly rooted.

Point is, your premises don't really support your conclusion, which is rife with its' own problems. Varys was pretty damn loyal to the Targaryens, to boot. And I'm of the belief that when Varys speaks in that specific voice of his, he's not lying. Besides, why lie to a man you're moments away from killing? That's silly.

Literally serves no purpose, in a literary sense or otherwise.

[Guest jasonothegreat]

32 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

If not Aegon, who is The Blackfyre? 

Aegon is too young to be a Blackfyre, Daemon and Maelys were the last Blackfyres and they both died without offspring, and if Aegon was born from one of them then he would be over thirty years old

[Forlong the Fat]

53 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I actually think Rhaenys is a good piece of evidence that the real Aegon died.  Why in her last moments would Rhaella be with a random child and let her daughter die alone?  I think any mother would have been with her daughter not the fake.

She would be with the fake so people would believe the fake was real. 

[Lord Wraith]

1 hour ago, jasonothegreat said:

Aegon is too young to be a Blackfyre, Daemon and Maelys were the last Blackfyres and they both died without offspring, and if Aegon was born from one of them then he would be over thirty years old

Only the last in the male line, or so we are told. If you look back at history of the Targs there have been plenty of pure looking Targs from marriages between Martells and Targaryens. So you bit about him not looking part Dornish doesn't hold up btw.

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 hours ago, jasonothegreat said:

Aegon is too young to be a Blackfyre, Daemon and Maelys were the last Blackfyres and they both died without offspring, and if Aegon was born from one of them then he would be over thirty years old

Never mind then. 

[Lord Wraith]

20 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Never mind then. 

Any thoughts on the last Blackfyre being descended from Bittersteel and Calla Blackfyre? He might not have the name but he has the blood. Its been awhile since I read your theory.

[Isobel Harper]

Ser Preston's corpse had been overlooked at first; the gold cloaks had been searching for a knight in white armor, and he had been stabbed and hacked so cruelly that he was red-brown from head to heel.

Ser Aron Santagar had been found in a gutter, his head a red pulp inside a crushed helm.

Lady Tanda's daughter had surrendered her maidenhood to half a hundred shouting men behind a tanner's shop. The gold cloaks found her wandering naked on Sowbelly Row.

Tyrek was still missing, as was the High Septon's crystal crown. Nine gold cloaks had been slain, two score wounded. No one had troubled to count how many of the mob had died.  ACoK, Tyrion IX

This scene is an echo of the Sack of King's Landing.  Like Princess Rhaenys, Ser Preston's had been stabbed brutally to death.  Like the babe, Aron Santagar's head was smashed to a pulp.  Like Elia, Lady Tanda was raped, and like Rhaenys' stabbing, this occurred "half a hundred times."  Her assault occurred behind a tanner's shop.  Aegon is said to have been switched with a tanner's son.  Like Aegon, Tyrek went missing.  And like King Aerys, the High Septon lost his crown.

There is one other person who is described as having her head smashed in to a "red pulp:"

A squirrel-skin cloak, he remembered, he knifed me for a squirrel-skin cloak.

Its owner had been dead, the back of her head smashed into red pulp flecked with bits of bone, but her cloak looked warm and thick. ...[snip]

So when Varamyr came upon the dead woman in the wood, he knelt to strip the cloak from her, and never saw the boy until he burst from hiding to drive the long bone knife into his side and rip the cloak out of his clutching fingers.  AdwD, Prologue

The son appears out of nowhere.  Another son appears out of nowhere later in this book.

[HexMachina]

10 hours ago, SonofMag said:

There's SO much wrong with this. The  genetics of hair colour are complex, and even the simplest form of inheritance - monogenic, with just two alleles - can result in 3 different genetic variants for just one gene. We can't deduce anything from the appearance of one sibling. You can't bandy that word around without the understanding to back it up.

Genetics in the real world are complex. GRRM is not an expert on genetics, and simplifies these things as and when he needs to (see Baratheon eyes and hair and the central plot of Kings Landing in book 1)

[MGraham]

10 hours ago, Neolaina said:

Point is, your premises don't really support your conclusion, which is rife with its' own problems. Varys was pretty damn loyal to the Targaryens, to boot. And I'm of the belief that when Varys speaks in that specific voice of his, he's not lying. Besides, why lie to a man you're moments away from killing? That's silly.

Literally serves no purpose, in a literary sense or otherwise.

This is the bit that gets me.... why lie to someone your about to kill. That speech was more for the readers benifit than anything else.

 

Vary's believes its true (or wants everyone to believe its true) Jon Con believes its true, the golden company believes it's true. This will be enough to convince everyone else if they win. If they lose he'll be another fake.

[Neolaina]

1 minute ago, MGraham said:

This is the bit that gets me.... why lie to someone your about to kill. That speech was more for the readers benifit than anything else.

 

Vary's believes its true (or wants everyone to believe its true) Jon Con believes its true, the golden company believes it's true. This will be enough to convince everyone else if they win. If they lose he'll be another fake.

It would be bad writing, is what it would be. No one's going to be patting George on the back, calling him clever, if that was his intention. *spits* Intentional misdirection during a private moment of serious exposition, my ass.

Get rid of that apostrophe. Other than that, you've nailed it.

[Isobel Harper]

Didn't have a chance to elaborate earlier.  I'll try to address the OP more directly this time.

21 hours ago, jasonothegreat said:

Now we are led to believe that in the time between Tywin Lannister arriving at King's Landing and Tywin sacking King's Landing, Aegon escaped with the help of Varys. But, why not Rhaenys? that was my first question, Rhaenys at the time was the only female Targaryen besides Queen Rhaelle at the time. She would be key in either proving Aegon's legitimacy or solidifying an Alliance for when Aegon would attack (She is about the same age as Willas and Garlan Tyrell). So why only save Aegon? one might argue its because Rhaenys was described as very "Dornish Looking".

I do not think Rhaenys' Dornish appearance was a factor in her not being saved; it was her age.  Rhaenys was about 2-years old at the time of her murder, an age when a child already has distinct, personal physical characteristics.  It would have been more difficult (and evidently too difficult) to find a suitable body double.  Sexism might have also played a role.  The male heir was important.  Rhaenys was just a possible consort.  Her age is young enough, however, where she could not help prove his identity.  Two-year olds are generally too young to form lasting memories.  Unless I'm mistaken, this does not develop until around age five.  If Rhaenys were saved too and raised with Aegon, I doubt she'd have any more memories of their mother or King's Landing than Aegon does. 

21 hours ago, jasonothegreat said:

Now a second piece of evidence. The convenient double for Aegon, A father with many sons just selling his son away for Arbor Gold? Where were the supposed many brothers of this baby, or the mother, or anyone for that matter who would let the father do such a thing?

Where were the supposed many brothers of this baby?  Possibly around the tanner's shop where Lollys was assaulted during the Riot of King's Landing.  (See my previous comment.)  Brothers resentful of what their father had done might provoke such a violent act against a woman (as they saw it) associating with the royal party. 

Given that the baby was so young, his brothers could be similarly very young and either did not know their father's actions or were unable to intervene if they did.  Their mother was dead; she died birthing the baby.

21 hours ago, jasonothegreat said:

Third Piece of Evidence, Jaime Lannister. Jaime was the only Kingsguard knight left in the Red Keep, Where was he? I understand that Varys probably wouldn't trust Jaime but such a heavy matter and he didn't even notice this? the Guy charged with protecting the Royal Family? Yes I know this is a weak piece of evidence.

Jaime Lannister killed his king.  He would be one of the last people to trust with Aegon. 

 

22 hours ago, jasonothegreat said:

Aegon, is described as a Handsome Valyrian looking man. But it has been specifically mentioned that almost all Valyrians are violet-eyed and silver-haired and attractive. But where is his Dornish Half? if Rhaenys was as Dornish looking as we are made out to believe how could the second child look completely like the father? 

Daeron II married Mariah Martell.  As we know in AFfC, the Martells have a "salty Dornish" appearance: dark hair and eyes, and olive skin.  Daeron and Mariah had (among others) a son, Maekar.  Like Prince Aegon, Maekar possessed traditional Valyrian coloring, despite being half-Martell:  "His [Maekar's] straight hair and square-cut beard were so fair they seemed white in the dimness of the hall, but as he got closer he saw that they were in truth a pale silvery color touched with gold." - The Hedge Knight 

Aegon V married Betha Blackwood, nicknamed "Black Betha" for her black hair and black eyes.  Three of their four children had traditional Valryian features.

In short, when it comes to Targaryens, normal genetics don't seem to apply.

22 hours ago, jasonothegreat said:

This leads me to my second point, Varys is cold and calculating, would he take the chance of putting his entire plan on a Targaryen?

I don't know why Varys wants to put Aegon on the throne.  I don't think any of us truly know.  Not yet anyway.

If Young Griff were an imposter, it would be difficult to get a double at just the right age and with the right physical characteristics - that is, facial features similar to Rhaegar, Elia, et al. not just coloring.  Young Griff appropriate age to be Aegon.  He even passes the Valryian Age Test^® - being confused for two years younger than he truly is.

Tyrion sighed. "You are remarkably polite for a bastard, Snow. What you see is a dwarf. You are what, twelve?"

"Fourteen," the boy said.  AGoT, Tyrion II

"Half his life? He [Aurane Waters] cannot be more than twenty."

"Two-and-twenty, and what of it?" AFfC, Jaime II

The dwarf put his [Young Griff's] age at fifteen, sixteen, or near enough to make no matter.  ADwD, Tyrion III

ADwD, Appendix gives Young Griff's age at eighteen. 

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 3/26/2016 at 1:43 AM, Lord Wraith said:

Any thoughts on the last Blackfyre being descended from Bittersteel and Calla Blackfyre? He might not have the name but he has the blood. Its been awhile since I read your theory.

Yeah, I have come around to that assumption. 

[Ygrain]

On 25. 3. 2016 at 3:22 AM, Neolaina said:

Varys was pretty damn loyal to the Targaryens, to boot.

He was? Two people who had almost 24/7 coverage of what was going on at the court, Barristan and Jaime, believe that Varys was fuelling Aerys' paranoia. He also fuelled Aerys' suspicion against Rhaegar, who would have made much better king - so is this really acting in the best interest of House Targaryen? Also, see below.

On 25. 3. 2016 at 3:22 AM, Neolaina said:

And I'm of the belief that when Varys speaks in that specific voice of his, he's not lying. Besides, why lie to a man you're moments away from killing? That's silly.

Because, as we learn from LF, one must never slip their role? Besides, someone who has kept his mouth shut for years, it is the only possibility to gloat at his plans coming to fruition. - Not particularly strong arguments, I know, but it's not like lying to a dying man is totally out of question.

On 25. 3. 2016 at 3:33 AM, jasonothegreat said:

Aegon is too young to be a Blackfyre, Daemon and Maelys were the last Blackfyres and they both died without offspring, and if Aegon was born from one of them then he would be over thirty years old

As pointed out above, only the male line died out, and we get this information from none other but Illyrio - who keeps at home a boy's clothes, is weirdly emotional about Aegon, and his deceased wife had blue eyes and silver-gold hair, and he found her in a Lyseni whorehouse. Way too many coincidences for my liking.

On the baby swap issue: the reason why I think it never happened is that there was no reason for the swap. KL was supposed to burn along with the Red Keep, right? That's the best cover-up that you might want, and I sure never noticed that Varys was doing anything to prevent the burning, nor do I believe that he didn't know. Knowing what was going to happen, he could have smuggled Aegon out of KL in the right moment. Hell, he could have smuggled Elia with both children if he was such a Targaryen loyalist. He could have got them to safety while Tywin's men were sacking the city. I cannot see how someone loyal to House Targaryen and possessing the means to save its members wouldn't use those means.

[Neolaina]

59 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Because, as we learn from LF, one must never slip their role? Besides, someone who has kept his mouth shut for years, it is the only possibility to gloat at his plans coming to fruition. - Not particularly strong arguments, I know, but it's not like lying to a dying man is totally out of question.

You're not wrong regarding your analysis of how LF might approach this. But think about it in a metatextual sense. If Varys was lying to Kevan, who was he trying to deceive? Pycelle's corpse in the next room over? Kevan, before he kills him anyways? The reader?

In this specific case, for the former two, that would be bad writing. Pycelle's dead, and Kevan's about to be dead. The deception would hold no value. There's literally no reason for him to lie. To further substantiate this, Varys is usually pretty good to ensure his surroundings are safe from curious ears before he starts dropping truthbombs. The one exception to this rule is Arya stumbling upon Varys and Illyrio, an event I'm not even sure Varys is aware of having happened. Considering the presence of his birds, and the outro to that epilogue, it's clear he felt he was in a safe zone.

As for using this scene to deceive the reader, it wouldn't be logically consistent. At this point in the story, at this point in the book, yes, Varys lying to a man about to be dead would truly serve no purpose than to deceive the reader. Usually, when someone lies to another who's about to die, the reader would be aware, either because they know the truth - which at this point in the story, we didn't - or because we're about to find out the truth, after the deception.

Varys would, effectively, be breaking the fourth wall solely to fuck with us, given there aren't any survivors - in all fairness, that we yet know of - to this scene. Think about it: What literary function would Varys lying to Kevan serve, leading to Kevan's death, and then the chapter just ends? Doesn't really do anything. I'd leave us confused, because of the deception, and give absolutely no purpose to the scene we'd just witnessed. 

Unless the text is trying to primarily use the device of unreliable narration to have an overall effect on the reader - see The Cask of Amantillado by Poe for an textbook example of the proper use of that device - I'd call shenanigans on that being abused here. And it would be abuse. Consider how it's been used in the text in a non-metatextual way; affecting the characters' understandings, but not the reader's own. Unless you're deliberately trying to confuse the reader, but I'd like to think George is a better writer than that.

Further. consider the placement of the epilogue; if Feast and Dance are Act 2, then this is the final scene before the curtain of that act. A perfect time for exposition, and adding the finishing touches setting up for Act 3. Exposition in writing can be dry, but it's absolutely necessary.

So, despite the fact of your correctness towards there being many instances wherein someone lies to someone else, who then promptly dies, I can't agree that this situation is one of those times.

The second part of your post, namely "the only possibility to gloat [...]" feeds into my reason why we can trust Varys' words at that point (or those points, since I use the specific voice he uses as my marker for his truthtelling). Varys has very few opportunities wherein he can share what his plans are, to some degree. One could further argue he's using it as a point to justify his Machiavellian machinations, by very clearly voicing his argument to someone who he actually holds in rather high esteem. He acknowledges Kevan's skill, and why his presence in court, as a regent, is toxic towards Varys' plan: Kevan's capable of bringing the type of stability and function that hinders his plans. Despite his ability, Varys has to remove him for his own wants. I've already mentioned the importance of exposition, as well as the fact that, up to that point, the reader didn't have a concrete clue of just what the hell Varys was doing.

And his plan was well underway by that point.

==

Ygrain, thanks for that. After my rather large dinner today, I needed something I could break into, to write about. Much obliged <3

[briantw]

On 3/26/2016 at 8:44 AM, MGraham said:

This is the bit that gets me.... why lie to someone your about to kill. That speech was more for the readers benifit than anything else.

Vary's believes its true (or wants everyone to believe its true) Jon Con believes its true, the golden company believes it's true. This will be enough to convince everyone else if they win. If they lose he'll be another fake.

Varys could easily have been lying.  

Personally, I've always figured the kid is Illyrio's.  Why else is he always giving the kid gifts, and why was he so sad when he was unable to make it to the river in time to see him?  I'm guessing Illyrio's wife was a Blackfyre and so Young Griff technically does have dragon's blood, he's just not Aegon.