Werthead

Atlas of Ice and Fire

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9 hours ago, Werthead said:

I think you're really underselling the scale of the War of the Ninepenny Kings.

1. The Band of Nine seized control of all the Stepstones. The initial Westerosi landing was on 3 islands but the war clearly spanned all of them.

2. Ormund Baratheon was killed by Maelys himself.

3. 10,000 men-at-arms and 1000 knights is how many the Westerlands ALONE sent, which is apart from the 100 longships the Greyjoys sent and however many the North, the Stormlands, the Crownlands, the Vale, the Riverlands, and Dorne did.

Edited by The Grey Wolf

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You're right about the numbers. I misread that as eleven thousand as the size of the total host. As for Ormund being killed by Maelys, that's what the history says but I'm sceptical about the number of times in battle that two heroes or important characters just happen to meet up and have a boss fight. It felt a bit odd saying that those two clashed immediately before Ser Barristan then showed up and killed him instead.

I don't see anywhere where it says that all of the Stepstones were conquered. There wouldn't be much point to it if their primary purpose was as a staging ground to attack Westeros or maybe Lys (if that was Samarro Saan's goal), unless one of the pirate captains wanted to conquer them for their own kingdom.

Edited by Werthead

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20 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Do we know whether this rebellion occurred before or after the First Blackfyre Rebellion?

 

19 hours ago, Werthead said:

Good point. I put that in there. I think it's only confirmed that it happend during the reign of Daeron II. After Barthogan died, his brother Brandon became Lord of Winterfell and was then followed by Beron, who died fighting Dagon Greyjoy c. 210-212 AC. That would suggest it was earlier in the reign, to give enough time for Brandon to have a reasonable reign.

Its not really stated when it happend but these are the relevent quote's:

A Feast for Crows - Samwell II

Only a hundred years ago Skagos had risen in rebellion. Their revolt had taken years to quell and claimed the life of the Lord of Winterfell and hundreds of his sworn swords.

The World of Ice and Fire - The North: The Stoneborn of Skagos

as recently as the reign of King Daeron II Targaryen (Daeron the Good), the isle rose up against the Lord of Winterfell—a rebellion that lasted years and claimed the lives of thousands of others, including that of Barthogan Stark, Lord of Winterfell (called Barth Blacksword), before finally being put down.

The World of Ice and Fire - The North: The Lords of Winterfell

After the Dance of the Dragons, the Starks were more overtly loyal to the Targaryens than previously. Indeed, Lord Cregan Stark's son and heir fought beneath the Targaryen banner when the Young Dragon sought to conquer Dorne. Rickon Stark fought bravely, his deeds sometimes reported by King Daeron in his Conquest of Dorne, and Rickon's death outside of Sunspear in one of the final battles was lamented in the North for years to come because of the troubles that dogged the reigns of his half brothers. In the decades that followed, the North saw the Starks dealing with the rebellion of Skagos, a renewed onslaught of reaving by the ironborn under Dagon Greyjoy, and a wildling invasion led by Raymun Redbeard, the King-Beyondthe-Wall in 226 AC. In each of these, Starks died

It is clear from the last quote that the rebellion comes before Dagon Greyjoy and Raymun Redbeard, in combination with the first quote it seems to be around 200 AC give or take a few years. This does place it after the First Blackfyre Rebellion, actually it places it so shortly after it that it may have been the reason the skaggosi thought they had a change at succes, the realm still being in turmoil and all that.

Edited by direpupy

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3 hours ago, Werthead said:

You're right about the numbers. I misread that as eleven thousand as the size of the total host. As for Ormund being killed by Maelys, that's what the history says but I'm sceptical about the number of times in battle that two heroes or important characters just happen to meet up and have a boss fight. It felt a bit odd saying that those two clashed immediately before Ser Barristan then showed up and killed him instead.

I don't see anywhere where it says that all of the Stepstones were conquered. There wouldn't be much point to it if their primary purpose was as a staging ground to attack Westeros or maybe Lys (if that was Samarro Saan's goal), unless one of the pirate captains wanted to conquer them for their own kingdom.

The text says that Ormund was amongst the first to fall when the Westerosi forces landed, implying that Maelys led a lightning-quick counter-attack aimed at taking out the Hand so as to deprive the Westerosi of leadership and drive them into disarray. Furthermore, the text says that Ormund died in the arms of his son, which would be pretty hard to make up since Steffon lived quite a while after the war and there would have been others who saw the Hand's death and would have written of it either in reports or personal letters.

As for the Stepstones, the text simply says they had "seized the Stepstones" and that "battles raged across the islands and the channels between for most of that year", which to me clearly implies all or at least a majority of the Stepstones were under the control of the Band of Nine. Also, considering the size of their forces (the Golden Company alone numbers 10K or more) they probably wouldn't have been able to all fit on just a few of the islands, let alone three.

As for motivations here's what I think they were:

Samarro Saan, the Last Valyrian: He obviously wanted Lys.

Xhobar Qohqua, the Ebon Prince: He wanted the Summer Isles, same way that Jalabhar Xho does.

Liomond Lashare: Sounds Myrish so he probably wanted Myr.

Spotted Tom the Butcher (almost certainly a Santagar IMO), Maelys I Blackfyre, and Ser Derrick Fossoway, the Bad Apple: All three wanted Westeros.

Alequo Adarys, the Silvertongue: Wanted (and got for a time) Tyrosh.

This leaves the Old Mother and Nine Eyes, either of whom could have desired the Stepstones or the Basilisk Isles for that matter as the price for joining the alliance.

On a separate note the fact that Maelys was able to get the other eight to band with him and actually work together without any of them ever attempting to betray or break away from the alliance shows that he was more than just the Maegor of House Blackfyre. The man clearly possessed will, cunning, and a certain amount of charisma.

Edited by The Grey Wolf

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Spotted Tom the Butcher (almost certainly a Santagar IMO), Maelys I Blackfyre, and Ser Derrick Fossoway, the Bad Apple: All three wanted Westeros.

I'm not sure on that. After Maelys's death, WoIaF says that the other eight warlords had no interest in Westeros at all, suggesting that the lands they wanted were elsewhere.

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13 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I'm not sure on that. After Maelys's death, WoIaF says that the other eight warlords had no interest in Westeros at all, suggesting that the lands they wanted were elsewhere.

I pointed that out in my previous post. They all wanted lands in Essos and beyond EXCEPT the three actually from Westeros. After all, what realms could Spotted Tom and Ser Derrick possibly want apart from Spottswood and Cider Hall or New Barrel, which they could only get if Maelys took the throne?

A possible explanation for the quote from TWOIAF that you mention could be that Ser Derrick and Spotted Tom died before or alongside Maelys and thus the band became disinterested in Westeros since all the Westerosi members were now dead.

Edited by The Grey Wolf

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2 hours ago, Werthead said:

That's possible. Another option is that they had carved out parts of the Disputed Lands for themselves and sought to protect them.

Historical Map 23: The Reign of the Mad King

I agree that is another possibility.

On map 23: Ormund Baratheon's wife, Princess Rhaelle, was Aerys's aunt not his great-aunt, being the younger sister of Aerys's father, Jaehaerys II.

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9 hours ago, Werthead said:

Cheers, caught it.

Historical Map 24: Robert's Rebellion

Just one more to go and the historical maps are done.

A few small things.

You mention Catelyn was betrothed to Brandon in 276 AC, and while it is a possibility, it is not the only one. We don't know the exact year of Catelyn's birth (264 AC or 265 AC), and thus, the betrothal could have occurred in 277 AC as well.

Further, you list the troops of the royalists at the Trident as being 45.000, with the rebels having just under 40.000. However, in AGOT, Jorah states that the royalists had 40.000 soldiers at the Trident (10.000 of whom we know came from Dorne), and GRRM has stated that the rebels had less men, though a number has never been specified.

Also, you state that the rebellion began in early 282 AC when Lyanna was abducted. We do not know when her abduction occurred, only that Rhaegar left Dragonstone in early 282 AC, and that he "ultimately" came face to face with Lyanna in the riverlands. As the text of the main books implies that the war ended late in the year 282 AC, the war should have begun "close to a year" before, in the second half of 282 AC. Daenerys's birth, in mid 284 AC, occurred roughly nine months after war's end, after all.

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6 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

A few small things.

You mention Catelyn was betrothed to Brandon in 276 AC, and while it is a possibility, it is not the only one. We don't know the exact year of Catelyn's birth (264 AC or 265 AC), and thus, the betrothal could have occurred in 277 AC as well.

Further, you list the troops of the royalists at the Trident as being 45.000, with the rebels having just under 40.000. However, in AGOT, Jorah states that the royalists had 40.000 soldiers at the Trident (10.000 of whom we know came from Dorne), and GRRM has stated that the rebels had less men, though a number has never been specified.

Also, you state that the rebellion began in early 282 AC when Lyanna was abducted. We do not know when her abduction occurred, only that Rhaegar left Dragonstone in early 282 AC, and that he "ultimately" came face to face with Lyanna in the riverlands. As the text of the main books implies that the war ended late in the year 282 AC, the war should have begun "close to a year" before, in the second half of 282 AC. Daenerys's birth, in mid 284 AC, occurred roughly nine months after war's end, after all.

The dates around Catelyn are a little fluid, that's true.

Dates for the rebellion suffer because George clearly screwed up (if only mildly) at some point but they're what we have to work with. The war ending in 283 is inarguable: Aerys's death date is fixed by every single book and reference ever since AGoT was published.

The Harrenhal Tourney takes place right at the very end of 281 as per WoIaF. The year and the season turns between the tourney ending and Lyanna being kidnapped. There's a problem here because Ned and Robert take off for the Eyrie after the tourney and Brandon for Riverrun, but Lyanna ends up hanging around at Harrenhal. It's possible she arranged this with Rhaegar previously and stayed put afterwards so he could "abduct" her, or maybe she decided to stay so she could meet her father on his way to Riverrun for the wedding, (which is more likely).

Reading WoIaF literally, Aerys returns to King's Landing, gets the fires lit and then Rhaegar returns to Harrenhal and abducts Lyanna. Harrenhal is about 280 miles from KL, maybe ten days given the severe weather (in high summer with post houses and changes of horses every day, maybe half that if going all-out). That puts the abduction maybe in early February 282 or maybe late January if you're being very optimistic. Word has to get to Riverrun and Brandon has to ride to King's Landing (which is about 540 miles), which takes 2-3 weeks. So Brandon reaches KL and is arrested by the end of February/very start of March 282.

George has some wriggle room (I think he even mentions in the SSM about this) because they have to wait for Rickard to arrive, which could be a few days behind Brandon or a few weeks. We get some help for Eddard and Robert here, because they have to cross the mountains in winter which may delay them. By the time they reach the Eyrie they may have already learned that Lyanna has been kidnapped and Brandon captured, but could have also received orders from Rickard to stay there whilst he rides to KL.

Rickard and Brandon's deaths could therefore occur between late March and early April 282. There needs to be time for word to reach the Eyrie and Jon ordered to surrender Robert and Eddard, for Jon to decide to rebel and call his banners. That marks the "official" start of the war. So late April 282 is reasonable for that.

The military action and fighting lasts until mid-April 283 (I think we have to assume that "the war lasted nearly a year" ends with Aerys's death, not the Tower of Joy or the taking of Dragonstone, otherwise the whole thing collapses). That puts Daenerys's conception date at March but her birth date (a month premature, or the better part thereof) in November, which clearly can't work. Having her born in January 284 requires her conception to have been in May (or maybe April and we say that the eight month reference was wrong). So Aerys's death must have been in May or June 283 at the latest. Because we have two fixed dates - the tourney ending at the very end of 281/year turning/abduction, and Aerys's death in 283 after "almost a year" of rebellion but 7-8 months before Daenerys's birth in 284 - it makes matching things up pretty tight.

You can possibly extend the start of the war further into 282, but only by Lyanna having a plausible reason for hanging around at Harrenhal (where she has no friends we know of or kin) for months rather than going with her family to Riverrun.

Daenerys being born in mid-284 is not likely. It really has to be at the start of the year. Quite a few timelines have Dany's storyline starting in late 297 anyway (rather that early-to-mid 298 for everyone else) so that's not a huge problem.

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21 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The dates around Catelyn are a little fluid, that's true.

Dates for the rebellion suffer because George clearly screwed up (if only mildly) at some point but they're what we have to work with. The war ending in 283 is inarguable: Aerys's death date is fixed by every single book and reference ever since AGoT was published.

The Harrenhal Tourney takes place right at the very end of 281 as per WoIaF. The year and the season turns between the tourney ending and Lyanna being kidnapped. There's a problem here because Ned and Robert take off for the Eyrie after the tourney and Brandon for Riverrun, but Lyanna ends up hanging around at Harrenhal. It's possible she arranged this with Rhaegar previously and stayed put afterwards so he could "abduct" her, or maybe she decided to stay so she could meet her father on his way to Riverrun for the wedding, (which is more likely).

Reading WoIaF literally, Aerys returns to King's Landing, gets the fires lit and then Rhaegar returns to Harrenhal and abducts Lyanna. Harrenhal is about 280 miles from KL, maybe ten days given the severe weather (in high summer with post houses and changes of horses every day, maybe half that if going all-out). That puts the abduction maybe in early February 282 or maybe late January if you're being very optimistic. Word has to get to Riverrun and Brandon has to ride to King's Landing (which is about 540 miles), which takes 2-3 weeks. So Brandon reaches KL and is arrested by the end of February/very start of March 282.

George has some wriggle room (I think he even mentions in the SSM about this) because they have to wait for Rickard to arrive, which could be a few days behind Brandon or a few weeks. We get some help for Eddard and Robert here, because they have to cross the mountains in winter which may delay them. By the time they reach the Eyrie they may have already learned that Lyanna has been kidnapped and Brandon captured, but could have also received orders from Rickard to stay there whilst he rides to KL.

Rickard and Brandon's deaths could therefore occur between late March and early April 282. There needs to be time for word to reach the Eyrie and Jon ordered to surrender Robert and Eddard, for Jon to decide to rebel and call his banners. That marks the "official" start of the war. So late April 282 is reasonable for that.

The military action and fighting lasts until mid-April 283 (I think we have to assume that "the war lasted nearly a year" ends with Aerys's death, not the Tower of Joy or the taking of Dragonstone, otherwise the whole thing collapses). That puts Daenerys's conception date at March but her birth date (a month premature, or the better part thereof) in November, which clearly can't work. Having her born in January 284 requires her conception to have been in May (or maybe April and we say that the eight month reference was wrong). So Aerys's death must have been in May or June 283 at the latest. Because we have two fixed dates - the tourney ending at the very end of 281/year turning/abduction, and Aerys's death in 283 after "almost a year" of rebellion but 7-8 months before Daenerys's birth in 284 - it makes matching things up pretty tight.

You can possibly extend the start of the war further into 282, but only by Lyanna having a plausible reason for hanging around at Harrenhal (where she has no friends we know of or kin) for months rather than going with her family to Riverrun.

Daenerys being born in mid-284 is not likely. It really has to be at the start of the year. Quite a few timelines have Dany's storyline starting in late 297 anyway (rather that early-to-mid 298 for everyone else) so that's not a huge problem.

I completely agree that Arryn calling the banners is the official start of the war (Yandel is clear on that), and that Aerys's death and the Sack of King's Landing marks the official end of the war, closing off the "close to a year" period.

Daenerys was close to 9 months pregnant in early 299 AC when Rhaego was born. Her handmaidens had discovered her pregnancy some ~7,5 months before at most (when her belly had begun to swell), and that was on her birthday. So Daenerys's birth falls in the first half of 284 AC, close to the middle of the year (May or June would be my guess). 

Which mean that the Sack took place some a few months before 283 AC ended, but definitly in the second half of the year. Between 8.5 to 9 months before Daenerys's birth (as she states she had been born 9 months after their flight, which occurred during the fortnight that passed between the Trident and the Sack).

As to Lyanna's abduction

As cold winds hammered the city, King Aerys II turned to his pyromancers, charging them to drive the winter off with their magics. Huge green fires burned along the walls of the Red Keep for a moon’s turn. Prince Rhaegar was not in the city to observe them, however. Nor could he be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon. With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off,  lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides.

This is the passage. I agree that it was early in the year that Rhaegar left, and Aerys had his fires lit. But, Yandel clearly states that Rhaegar's journey "ultimately" led him back to the riverlands. Not that the riverlands were his first destination, or his only destination, but that in the end, Rhaegar ended up there. The word "ultimately" implies the passage of time, we just don't know how much. 

So I have to disagree that TWOIAF implies an abduction early in the year. It says nothing on the timing that Lyanna disappeared, only when Rhaegar left home.

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@Werthead @Rhaenys_Targaryen 

Have to agree with RT here. Daenerys is born almost certainly around mid-year 284. Putting the Flight to Dragonstone in the late September 283 frame, not mid-year 283.

But what I don't understand is the idea that Lyanna must have stayed in Harrenhal. I've never been in agreement with that assumption. I would think the last place Brandon and Ned would want Lyanna to stay is in the home of a Rhaegar supporting loyalist after how Harrenhal ended. I think what we are seeing is the Stark siblings going from the tourney to the Vale and Benjen going north to be in Winterfell while his father leaves for the wedding in Riverrun. This is one of the cornerstones of his "southron ambitions" alliances, no matter what one thinks they are, so he is hardly going to miss it. Rickard has to be there.

While they wait in the Vale for Rickard's arrival there has to be communication between Brandon and his father about what took place at the tourney and what is to be the Stark response. My guess is they move the wedding between Robert and Lyanna forward to eliminate Targaryen interference in the plans. Regardless, I think what we see is Brandon moving forward with his own wedding by going to Riverrun (the Tullys being strangely absent from Harrenhal) and being challenged by Littlefinger, and Lyanna being sent to Riverrun in a separate party. I would suspect a party led by Martyn Cassel because he isn't in either Brandon's party or Rickard's entourage when they arrive in King's Landing. That Rhaegar happens on to Lyanna's escort is, I think, pure chance, but her being near Harrenhal likely has nothing to do with her staying there. If anything, it implies perhaps the Prince and his party have recently left there. Anyway, my thoughts.

Edited by SFDanny

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Daenerys was close to 9 months pregnant in early 299 AC when Rhaego was born. Her handmaidens had discovered her pregnancy some ~7,5 months before at most (when her belly had begun to swell), and that was on her birthday. So Daenerys's birth falls in the first half of 284 AC, close to the middle of the year (May or June would be my guess). 

No date is given in the texts for Rhaego's birth. The Wiki lists it as 298/299, accepting that both (latter 298/early 299) are possibilities. If it's 298, then Daenerys easily could have had her birthday in January and it's easy to make that match, as you just roll her early AGoT chapters back into late 297, as many timelines do.

The red comet I've never felt to be a decisive factor: the Red Waste is considerably to the south of King's Landing and it is possible that the comet's trajector brings it into view from the south before the north. In addition, making Dany's chapters earlier helps explain how she both gets to spend an immense amount of time in Qarth (certainly many months) and conquer half of Slaver's Bay before 300 begins. Otherwise you're compressing some immense distances and timeframes into 299 alone.

I think it is risky to read too much into the term "ultimately". Harrenal is quite a long way from King's Landing (George really needs to have considered the realistic size of Westeros earlier on in the story, but there we go) and that could just mean the distance involved. It is also possible that Rhaegar visited Dragonstone briefly before returning (there are mentions of him disappearing from Dragonstone rather than KL) to Harrenhal.

SFDanny's ideas have a lot of merit, but they also rely on tremendous coincidence (Rhaegar "happening" on Lyanna just outside Harrenhal) when it was clear a lot of things that happened at the time were planned, and involves too much invention based on the facts to hand (not to say that George can't drop a load of retcons in though).

The problems with a later date for the abduction is that they require Lyanna to have some off-screen side-adventures before conveniently being captured from near Harrenhal by Rhaegar, or they require her to spend substantial amounts of time at the castle with no real reason to do so. Even assuming some sort of collusion with Rhaegar (the plausability of which based on their brief acquaintence at the tourney is itself questionable), she would still need to provide some kind of excuse to her family at why she wanted to hang around there.

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5 hours ago, Werthead said:

No date is given in the texts for Rhaego's birth. The Wiki lists it as 298/299, accepting that both (latter 298/early 299) are possibilities. If it's 298, then Daenerys easily could have had her birthday in January and it's easy to make that match, as you just roll her early AGoT chapters back into late 297, as many timelines do.

The red comet I've never felt to be a decisive factor: the Red Waste is considerably to the south of King's Landing and it is possible that the comet's trajector brings it into view from the south before the north. In addition, making Dany's chapters earlier helps explain how she both gets to spend an immense amount of time in Qarth (certainly many months) and conquer half of Slaver's Bay before 300 begins. Otherwise you're compressing some immense distances and timeframes into 299 alone.

The comet appears in the morning sky of Winterfell after Rickon turns four. Which places it's earliest appearance in the series in 299, not 298. Now, Rhaego's birth is before the comet, but not by much. It is pretty clear from the text that Dany is near full term with Rhaego's pregnancy when the blood magic events of Mirri in the tent occur, and in Blood of the Dragon (something @Rhaenys_Targaryen pointed out to me, btw) it is even more clear, "She had carried the child for eight months now, but Dothraki women rode almost up until the day they gave birth" (bold emphasis added.) At most we are talking about a difference of weeks from full term. That places the time in which the pregnancy is first noticed, and on the occasion of her nameday, right around mid-year. We can adjust this time by weeks, but not by months. Given the nine moons we are told Daenerys is born after the flight to Dragonstone (which takes place shortly before the sack and Aerys's death) I think we are clearly dealing with about a late September date for the sack.

This also fits with Robb's birth some nine months after the Battle of the Bells and still in 283. Margaery's birth in late 283 after Robb's, etc. 

5 hours ago, Werthead said:

I think it is risky to read too much into the term "ultimately". Harrenal is quite a long way from King's Landing (George really needs to have considered the realistic size of Westeros earlier on in the story, but there we go) and that could just mean the distance involved. It is also possible that Rhaegar visited Dragonstone briefly before returning (there are mentions of him disappearing from Dragonstone rather than KL) to Harrenhal.

I agree, especially about George's need to have considered a more realistic size for Westeros. The distances are huge, and the travel times in the real world would not work.

5 hours ago, Werthead said:

SFDanny's ideas have a lot of merit, but they also rely on tremendous coincidence (Rhaegar "happening" on Lyanna just outside Harrenhal) when it was clear a lot of things that happened at the time were planned, and involves too much invention based on the facts to hand (not to say that George can't drop a load of retcons in though).

The problems with a later date for the abduction is that they require Lyanna to have some off-screen side-adventures before conveniently being captured from near Harrenhal by Rhaegar, or they require her to spend substantial amounts of time at the castle with no real reason to do so. Even assuming some sort of collusion with Rhaegar (the plausability of which based on their brief acquaintence at the tourney is itself questionable), she would still need to provide some kind of excuse to her family at why she wanted to hang around there.

Thank you. I must admit that part of my belief this was a chance meeting has to do with George's continual homages to Tolkien. It fits as a tribute to Gandalf and Thorin Oakenshield's "chance meeting" at the Prancing Pony that changed the course of Middle-Earth. By which Tolkien meant that there were other forces than chance - the fates, the gods - that brought about the meeting, and I think George is doing much the same here. 

We have too little to go on to be sure, but I don't think it makes sense to have Lyanna at Harrenhal by herself after the outrage of the Starks, and Robert over Rhaegar's crowning of her at Harrenhal. If anything, the Starks are going to have her under guard to prevent the Targaryens from interfering in their plans. Not a prisoner of her own family, but guarded nonetheless. I think if makes almost no sense to envision a Lyanna traveling by herself, even if none of the aforementioned events happened. Which makes me think Lyanna spends much of this time in the Vale with her brothers and Robert. She is sent, likely to help with the wedding and to get to know her new sister Catelyn, under a guard large enough to ensure her safety. Which might not help too much if Rhaegar's swordpoint is pointed at her, or if she is in agreement with the "kidnapping"

Edited by SFDanny

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11 hours ago, SFDanny said:

The comet appears in the morning sky of Winterfell after Rickon turns four. Which places it's earliest appearance in the series in 299, not 298. Now, Rhaego's birth is before the comet, but not by much. It is pretty clear from the text that Dany is near full term with Rhaego's pregnancy when the blood magic events of Mirri in the tent occur, and in Blood of the Dragon (something @Rhaenys_Targaryen pointed out to me, btw) it is even more clear, "She had carried the child for eight months now, but Dothraki women rode almost up until the day they gave birth" (bold emphasis added.) At most we are talking about a difference of weeks from full term. That places the time in which the pregnancy is first noticed, and on the occasion of her nameday, right around mid-year. We can adjust this time by weeks, but not by months. Given the nine moons we are told Daenerys is born after the flight to Dragonstone (which takes place shortly before the sack and Aerys's death) I think we are clearly dealing with about a late September date for the sack.

This also fits with Robb's birth some nine months after the Battle of the Bells and still in 283. Margaery's birth in late 283 after Robb's, etc.

That line from Blood of the Dragon refers to Daenerys when she leaves Vaes Dothrak. So how close to the nine months she was when Rhaego was born would depend on how much time they took to travel to the Lhazareen village, but it is clear that she is close. (also suppported by the fact that she does not think the child is premature when she does go into labor).

While it is possible that the comet might not have appeared for every character on the same day, if this is the case, we are speaking about days apart. Luwin and Bran observe the comet in early 299 AC (based on Rickon's age), the day news of Ned's death arrives, but there is no mention of the comet on the day that Ned dies, nor is there any later statement from either Sansa or Arya that connects the comet to Eddard's death, while the northmen at Riverrun see the comet as vengeance for Eddard, imo heavily implying that the comet had not been visible at the time of Ned's death, but became visible shortly after. Since it appears only days pass between Eddard's death and the arrival of the news of his death at Winterfell, that would mean that it takes only days for the comet to have become visible following Ned's death.

Placing Daenerys's birth in January 284 AC, would mean that Rhaego was born ~7/7.5 months later, in ~August, perhaps September, months before Eddard's death and the comet being sighted in Westeros, and since it does not seem that the comet becomes visible at such slow speed, Daenerys's birth should thus occur later in the year, by several months.

The comments that we have regarding the visibility of the comet imply that people are seeing it all relatively at the same time, which should mean that Daenerys cannot be more than a few days, or two short weeks or so, ahead of the others. 

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@Werthead, I was also wondering about the numbers for the armies you give for the Trident. You state that the royalists had soem 45.000, and the rebels 40.000, but I can only think of this source:

"[...] Your lord husband alone counts forty thousand mounted warriors in his khalasar.”
“Is that truly so many?”
“Your brother Rhaegar brought as many men to the Trident,” Ser Jorah admitted.

Which states that Rhaegar had 40.000 men. The rebels had less, but no numbers were ever given as far as I can recall.

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Blood of the Dragon, Path of the Dragon, Arms of the Kraken and the Dany ADWD preview book are not canon. The information in them is supersceded by the actual finalised chapters in AGoT, ASoS, AFFC and ADWD and if information did not survive the transition, then it is not official.

I adjusted the army numbers. Could have sworn that 45,000 was mentioned somewhere.

Winterfell is about 2,000 miles north of the latitude where Dany is when the dragons hatch, so yes, the comet could have been seen considerably earlier by Dany than it was in Westeros.

Some of this factors into the timeline issue for Dany in AGoT-ACoK-ASoS that has come up since Lands confirmed the size of the Red Waste, namely that she and her khalasar have to cross the Waste in some considerable state of distress and weaknes, stay at Vaes Tolorro for weeks-to-months before sending out her riders, her riders then need the time to reach Qarth and return (quite a few weeks), she then needs to cross the Waste to Qarth (weeks) and then stay months in the city. How long Barristan takes to get to her also has to be factored in. But that will come up when I get to the books themselves. Suffice to say that pushing the start date of Dany's storyline back as far as possible it starting to look desirable from the POV of any of this making sense (although ACoK's timeline is pretty fubared anyway by how fast Catelyn travels from Riverrun to Bitterbridge to Storm's End and back again, which is an absolutely titanic distance compared to everyone else's journeys).

ETA: If anyone had been killed when Rhaegar abducted Lyanna I think that would have been mentioned. Clearly someone was with Lyanna and escaped because everyone knew where and when Lyanna disappeared and that Rhaegr was the one who took her. But it seems unlikely that Lyanna had a heavy escort. I'm also not sure how seriously Brandon and Eddard took the incident at the tourney and how much this led to plans being changed. Brandon was pissed off at the time, but given how easily he got annoyed and then calmed down he could have forgotten about it a day later.

Edited by Werthead

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I think as it was mentioned in the OP, inside one of the links, we are only seeing less than one quarter of the globe and if I'm not mistaken, Planetos is bigger than earth IIRC. I think it is safe to say there are more continents and islands out there, but hey, it is a middle ages-like world, so people from Westeros don't know much about the far-east, only a few had traveled far. But I bet people form Qarth, Yi Ti and other places know more about other lands, maybe they just don't share it with others. It is impossible that about 3/4 of the planet are pure water or only a handful of small islands. 

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Yes. The "known world" appears to be around 20-25% of the total surface area of the planet. GRRM has also said the planet is larger than Earth (I've followed a geological blog that crunched some numbers and came up with about 8% larger).

There is a very good indication there are more continents out there: storm systems form over open water and gather strength the further they travel before hitting land, where they tend to dissipate. If there were no other continents out there, Westeros and Essos would be getting slammed by some pretty massive storms on a regular basis, which they're not.

As for knowledge, this is where George hits some problems. As early as the Roman era, people in Western Europe knew that China was out there and that Asia had a far east coast, and China is considerably further east from Spain than Asshai is from Westeros. We should have complete maps of Essos really, or at least a better indication of what's out there. The only way we can't is if Essos is uninhabitable east of Asshai for whatever reason.

In WoIaF it does say that both Qarth and the Summer Islanders - and we know the Valyrians did - have explored the coast of Sothoryos some distance south, further than what is shown on the existing maps.

Historical Map 25: The Baratheon Reign

Which brings the historical maps to a close.

 

 

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