Some thoughts on Alayne Stone and Littlefinger.

[John Suburbs]

On ‎3‎/‎29‎/‎2016 at 0:04 PM, Macgregor of the North said:

 

snip

 

The Alayne story was well and good when Sansa was in relative seclusion in the Eyrie, but it's already starting to unravel now that she is at the Gates of the Moon. I'm sure Littlefinger could come up with some lie to the effect that even though he and Alayne's mother loved each other oh so much, they were forced apart by their fathers and she chose to give up the child so his honor would not be stained, blah, blah, blah... but if Sansa gets cornered alone, most likely from Mandy, who should already be suspicious, the jig will be up.

There is also a video somewhere about the shoe that Sansa lost out the moon door when Lysa fell, which, if found, would be difficult to explain since she was not supposed to be in the room.

And even if Sansa does have the "Tully look", people still see what they want to see. If Sansa's identity gets blown, it will be because of her story, not her appearance.

But I have a hunch that the Alayne story won't need to hold up much longer as the Lannisters will soon be dispossessed of the Iron Throne anyway.

 

[daccu65]

38 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

The Alayne story was well and good when Sansa was in relative seclusion in the Eyrie, but it's already starting to unravel now that she is at the Gates of the Moon.

This is pretty much my belief.

39 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

but if Sansa gets cornered alone, most likely from Mandy, who should already be suspicious, the jig will be up

This is why I think Randy waited for the trip down to the Gates of the Moon to have her talk.  A very long ride, with minimal interruptions from Sweetrobin and no servants or guards to run interference.  I strongly suspect that Mya organized the traveling parties to give Randy unimpeded access to Sansa.

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

And even if Sansa does have the "Tully look", people still see what they want to see. If Sansa's identity gets blown, it will be because of her story, not her appearance.

I agree.  The only "Tully look" most folks in the Vale have seen is Lysa.  

For all of this, Sansa is still a suspect in Joffrey's murder.  I don't recall Tyrion ever declaring that he acted alone.  With the increasing exposure Sansa is going to have at the Gates makes me believe that LF knows the Lannisters in general, and Cersei in particular, are going to lose a great deal of influence in the near future.

 

 

 

[Winter Rose Crown]

19 hours ago, LadyoftheNorth72 said:

If you want silly, how about the idea that Cat's daughters would have been in KL for weeks prior to the Hand's tourney, but LF hasn't seen them in person yet? It's not like they were being held in seclusion. Many would have been very curious about Joffrey's new betrothed, let alone the man who was once in love with her mother and had just recently seen Cat in person.

It's not so much that Weedragon is alone in thinking you're trying to put forward opinions as facts and assuming facts with no textual evidence (not to mention being sarcastic and insulting in your posts), it's just generally a waste of time to bother. I am curious about your response to this

I always agree with pretty much everything you say. But so much this -- mcgregor, your posts come across as unnecessarily hostile. This is how theories go. You propose something, support it with facts, people counter, you counter back. It doesn't involve personal attacks.

LF knew where Sansa would be sitting and when she'd get there and who she would be with. I have absolutely no doubt, either through spies or manipulating the situation, or both.

She has a bad backstory because if it were too good, there would be doubts when the big reveal came. He needs something he can knock over when she is presented as Sansa Stark all along. There are already suspicions about farya and faegon, he doesn't need the real sansa becoming fsansa.

[My_Half_Groat]

On 3/30/2016 at 9:46 AM, Bea Noleto said:

The people of the Eyrie saw Cat at least once, when she brought Tyrion, and back then Cat made an impression on Lysa, that she looked very old, and how she used to look pretty when she was younger, that Lysa used to look a lot like herself. I think there should be people there who would remember Lysa when she was younger, and compare that image to Sansa. The Tully look might be the hair, but to assume that niece and aunt look alike with these piece of information in hand is not too much of a stretch.

good point about Cat being there recently. I'm sure that there are people there who remember Lysa from when she was young. correct me if I'm wrong though; wasn't Cat much prettier than Lysa and isn't Sansa supposed to be prettier than even Cat ever was? it just seems to me that their hair is the only thing we hear of that could MAYBE be called "the Tully look" and apparently Cat had a more beautiful face (I'm assuming) than Lysa and that Sansa is more beautiful than Cat was... I just don't think Sansa and Lysa looked alike (when the hair is taken out of the equation)

having said all that, I simply disagree that there is any sort of Tully look in general. what I don't disagree with is that Alayne's background story will not hold up to scrutiny. but as others have pointed out: anyone looking close enough to scrutinize has enough curiosity that a more fleshed out backstory wouldn't be much of a deterrent.

 

On 3/30/2016 at 0:55 AM, Macgregor of the North said:

Stop jumping on a smart arses bandwagon mate, it's a bumpy ride because when they look silly, u may do to. And for the most part littledragon just looks silly contesting everything everybody puts up on here. There's loads of people who do the same, don't become one of their followers and in time dare I say it, one of 'them'.

I'm quite content to have my own opinions. that opinion happens to be that you're making a whole lot of presumptions that sound ridiculous and then when you're shown to be incorrect, you move the goal post and layer it in more presumptions. for example, this sounds insane:

On 3/29/2016 at 11:02 AM, Macgregor of the North said:

Yes LF knew she would be around and hoped to find her but there's no way he would know where the seats were that Ned found for them in the stands, he's not that good. So what drew him to her in the end was her Tully looks when he chanced to see her in the crowd.

yes, he is that good. if he wasn't good enough to know that, he would be a player below Cersei's level of incompetence.

[Macgregor of the North]

4 hours ago, Winter Rose Crown said:

I always agree with pretty much everything you say. But so much this -- mcgregor, your posts come across as unnecessarily hostile. This is how theories go. You propose something, support it with facts, people counter, you counter back. It doesn't involve personal attacks.

LF knew where Sansa would be sitting and when she'd get there and who she would be with. I have absolutely no doubt, either through spies or manipulating the situation, or both.

She has a bad backstory because if it were too good, there would be doubts when the big reveal came. He needs something he can knock over when she is presented as Sansa Stark all along. There are already suspicions about farya and faegon, he doesn't need the real sansa becoming fsansa.

This thread has become silly enough. Let's at least try and get through the discussion like adults. But please, do not let yourself get worked up like others if I counter well with quotes and facts.

My post was to confirm that LF's story isn't watertight, which everybody had agreed on apart from littledragon but that's in the past. In my view my post worked, it was a success in that aspect. 

It became something else because littledragon could not let it go and had to be right about something so it became about the next point we are away to discuss.

His argument. And let's face it, he made it an argument with constant attempts using MADE UP 'facts' which just weren't true and if I wasn't so headstrong(which may come across as hostile, but not intended, but if I smell bullshit and know somebody's talking rubbish just to debunk me, then I'm all over it!) then I may have folded but that's not me and any man worth his salt wouldn't either. It's who I am sorry if people don't like it. 

So. First I'm told that LF knew exactly where to find Sansa because she was wearing WF colours. A total fabricated fact to make himself seem more in the know, or something?. She Infact wore a green gown.

Then I'm told she was surrounded by WF guards. The Same, a lie. For what reason? I don't know? But I countered it with facts again. 

Here is the quote that shows who Sansa went with and what she was wearing. Note how noticeable she is , that people are looking at her, and nobody on the planet would need a spy to find her. Or need WF guards or colours to help them either.

A Game of Thrones - Sansa II 

Sansa rode to the Hand's tourney with Septa Mordane and Jeyne Poole, in a litter with curtains of yellow silk so fine she could see right through them. They turned the whole world gold. Beyond the city walls, a hundred pavilions had been raised beside the river, and the common folk came out in the thousands to watch the games. The splendor of it all took Sansa's breath away; the shining armor, the great chargers caparisoned in silver and gold, the shouts of the crowd, the banners snapping in the wind … and the knights themselves, the knights most of all.

"It is better than the songs," she whispered when they found the places that her father had promised her, among the high lords and ladies. Sansa was dressed beautifully that day, in a green gown that brought out the auburn of her hair, and she knew they were looking at her and smiling.

Now. After this. Which I countered amicably and with 100% facts. I'm still told that LF knows where she is through Ned finding a specific special seat, and that LF and his spies have found this info out and have detected her right to her seat. When I countered this. That is when littledragon finally quit because there is no such 'special seat'. And that is the clear word used many many times , that never once appears in the books. 

Sansa in fact, is only promised a reserved 'place'. Which only means the Ned has made sure that Sansa, Septa Mordane, Jeyne Poole and Arya have been reserved places in the nobility pavilion amongst the highborn lords and ladies. And I also pointed out in these days, there was no seat or row number like modern stadia. So they were just basically reserved a space on the wooden benches. 

To this I was ridiculed about mentioning seat numbers and met with massive sarcasm. But hey ho, I'll carry on. 

Then im also countered with a quote, which states Sansa is sitting on the Royal dais with Jofferey to her right. Now I'm sorry but this to me was a clincher that littledragon has only purpose, and it's to 'get one over' and end the discussion in the right. Which I'm cool with, grown men are competitive, and me very much so lol.

But, there's one problem, in his haste to debunk me, he has not quoted the Jousting seating arrangements. He has quoted the feast seating arrangement. Held after the Jousts have finished. So I know I'm up against stubborn child's play here for sure now. 

In the next quotes I'm going to show that Ned never arranged Sansa a special specific seat. He only reserved the places for them in the nobility pavilion, even though he himself and Arya also never went.

A Game of Thrones - Arya II 

Septa Mordane spoke up. "Princess Myrcella will be there, my lord, and her younger than Lady Sansa. All the ladies of the court will be expected at a grand event like this, and as the tourney is in your honor, it would look queer if your family did not attend."

Father looked pained. "I suppose so. Very well, I shall arrange a place for you, Sansa." He saw Arya. "For both of you."

And Sansas quote below:

 

"It is better than the songs," she whispered when they found the places that her father had promised her, among the high lords and ladies. Sansa was dressed beautifully that day, in a green gown that brought out the auburn of her hair, and she knew they were looking at her and smiling.

 

So this, in my eyes confirms he reserved there place among the noble

lords and ladies. Place, not 'special seat'. So there is no special seat for a spy to find out about, and as I explained numerous times! Nobody needs a spy. She is seated in the highborn area, yes LF would know that but then so would everybody! Sansa is noticeable, clearly. And especially if you are fresh from seeing her mother lately, you know Sansas in town, and the girl you are keeping an eye out for has a distinctive Tully look like LF himself actually says when he meets her for the very 1st time ever in the two of thems lives.

 

Now, I will place one more quote, and this one serves to also counter what LoTn said. Which I already thought of in the first place because naturally that's what you do. She stated that LF had to have seen her loads of times because the Stark girl has not been hidden away. Yes, great point. I also thought that. But every interaction with LF I could find in the books before the tourney is done outwith Sansas presence. Maybe this is a GRRM oversight, it is a very long time ago before we all begun analysing EVERYTHING. Or maybe LF has been so busy finding coin for things he's only now managing to sleaze up to her now.

But it's clear to see by the quote that Sabsa has never met the man or saw the man once in her whole life. I mean never, we never even get a POV that she says, who's that creepy looking man staring at me. So for all the whole world to see, this quote here shows that's it strongly seems like the first time they are meeting/seeing each other. Now while I can't rule out the possibility that he's saw her from very afar, or a spy has saw her in person. The fact is that going to the tourney he only has this info. She is in the highborn benches. Nowhere specific, maybe a good seat somewhere. She may have clues around her like WF heraldry, but it's a fact she doesn't. So he's basically looking for a resemblance to Cat, and her Tully looks like the quote shows when he meets her for the first time. Here is the quote:

 

When Sansa finally looked up, a man was standing over her, staring. He was short, with a pointed beard and a silver streak in his hair, almost as old as her father. "You must be one of her daughters," he said to her. He had grey-green eyes that did not smile when his mouth did. "You have the Tully look." 

"I'm Sansa Stark," she said, ill at ease. The man wore a heavy cloak with a fur collar, fastened with a silver mockingbird, and he had the effortless manner of a high lord, but she did not know him. "I have not had the honor, my lord."

 

So there it is. That's my thoughts on the matter. All presented with facts which influenced my thoughts. That LF sees her and it's her looks that draw him to her. He knows the area to look, but what sealed it was her Tully looks, just like the Cat he remembers. 

This is the last time I'm writing it out this big so this is a reply for everyone, read it right through and I hope it helps. Now good day, this has been a very long discussion with very silly moments but I will never stop if I feel I have the correct facts to show my point. I look forward to more spirited discussions. Excuse me now because it's Friday. And I love a Friday. 

 

[Macgregor of the North]

32 minutes ago, My_Half_Groat said:

good point about Cat being there recently. I'm sure that there are people there who remember Lysa from when she was young. correct me if I'm wrong though; wasn't Cat much prettier than Lysa and isn't Sansa supposed to be prettier than even Cat ever was? it just seems to me that their hair is the only thing we hear of that could MAYBE be called "the Tully look" and apparently Cat had a more beautiful face (I'm assuming) than Lysa and that Sansa is more beautiful than Cat was... I just don't think Sansa and Lysa looked alike (when the hair is taken out of the equation)

having said all that, I simply disagree that there is any sort of Tully look in general. what I don't disagree with is that Alayne's background story will not hold up to scrutiny. but as others have pointed out: anyone looking close enough to scrutinize has enough curiosity that a more fleshed out backstory wouldn't be much of a deterrent.

 

I'm quite content to have my own opinions. that opinion happens to be that you're making a whole lot of presumptions that sound ridiculous and then when you're shown to be incorrect, you move the goal post and layer it in more presumptions. for example, this sounds insane:

yes, he is that good. if he wasn't good enough to know that, he would be a player below Cersei's level of incompetence.

Half groat, welcome back. I have written out quite a long reply just a minute ago in response to another poster. It hopefully will clear things up. Quote anything from there if you wish to discuss further. The facts are all there.

[Beorn Snow]

What do we know about LF´s mother apart from the name Alayne.

His father is an upshot. He is a Bronn, really, but without a civil war. (Just a ninepenny-king rebellion).

The son of a Braavosi sellsword turned hedgeknight proves himself in war, gets knighted and befriends a powerful lord.

How does he get land on the fingers? By marrying someone´s daughter? Does LF after all have some family in the Vale? Or is it a merchant´s daughter, so merely money?

I´d think it´s rather land and noble blood the hedgeknight wants.

So who was Alayne, or Alayne of the fingers?

[Blackfish09]

So just so I am clear MacGregor you definitely agree that their is no such thing as Tully looks right? And LF was just saying like oh you look like your mother. Right?

[Macgregor of the North]

24 minutes ago, Blackfish09 said:

So just so I am clear MacGregor you definitely agree that their is no such thing as Tully looks right? And LF was just saying like oh you look like your mother. Right?

I think both. There are what is described in the books as Tully looks. And he thinks Sansa looks like her mother due to the Tully look. 

Is it that hard to believe people can use somebody's last name as a reference point for somebody's 'look'. 

I've lost count how many times I have heard somebody say I have the look of my fathers last name and my own last name. Shit even everybody says my own daughter has the (insert name) look. 

And countless other people in life to, it happens a lot if I'm Honest. Have you never heard somebody say to another person 'you have the (name) look', or something like, oh god, you must be a (name)?'. 

[LadyoftheNorth72]

On 3/31/2016 at 10:36 AM, daccu65 said:

Most of the Vale notables, even those few who may know who Sansa is, have plausible reasons to not know.

(snip)

And this brings me to my final point; it only takes one person 'in the know' to either lose his nerve or see an opportunity for personal gain.

As to the first section of your post, I don't disagree at all that very few (maybe as few as 3 or 4) people have so far come to the conclusion that Sansa is Alayne.  

To clarify my accomplice theory: what I would be worried about, if I were someone from the Vale and considering notifying the Lannisters/ Tyrells, is how the whole thing looks. If you put yourself in their shoes, and imagine being the person to tell, you would have to consider the possibility that the crown won't believe no one knew. Given Cersei's overwhelming paranoia, she'll have troops in there searching for Tyrion as well before you can say "half a groat." The others are likely to be more temperate, but still suspicious, especially since no one has really had any idea where the Vale stood on anything for quite a while.

It's not so much that I believe the crown will decide to imprison or execute anyone who saw Sansa while she was there. It's that I can't imagine most having the guts to be the one to tell, and trust that it won't land them in hot water. After all, testifying in hopes of reward from Cersei & Co hasn't worked out so well for anyone so far.

As to the last part of your post, again I agree and I did say in my post that the hole in the boat is anyone whose position can only be improved by going to the crown, or who believes that is the case. That could be anyone from a sharp eared maid to a passionately disgruntled lordling such as Lyn Corbray.

[daccu65]

33 minutes ago, LadyoftheNorth72 said:

To clarify my accomplice theory: what I would be worried about, if I were someone from the Vale and considering notifying the Lannisters/ Tyrells, is how the whole thing looks. If you put yourself in their shoes, and imagine being the person to tell, you would have to consider the possibility that the crown won't believe no one knew. Given Cersei's overwhelming paranoia, she'll have troops in there searching for Tyrion as well before you can say "half a groat." The others are likely to be more temperate, but still suspicious, especially since no one has really had any idea where the Vale stood on anything for quite a while.

And on the flip side, do you dare 'not' to tell?

Not disagreeing with you.  I can fully understand the reluctance to report Sansa's location to the very paranoid, very vindictive Cersei.  Now, imagine being someone who didn't report Sansa, while someone else did.  I think that this is an even more frightening scenario.  Let's say, for a moment, that Nestor sells out Sansa (not saying he will, just using him as an example).  He's taking a huge risk, and he knows it.  On the other hand, he also has to consider what will happen to him if...say...Yohn figures it out and sells out Sansa.  Nestor is probably going to be in even hotter water.  Also, what if Cersei was to go into one of her 'purge all of Robert's bastards' fits, sends an assassin after Mya, and the assassin spots and recognizes Sansa?  Again, he's probably in even hotter water than if he sold her out in the first place.  

I know it might sound contradictory, saying that the Vale notables have a certain 'plausible deniability' towards Sansa's identity, while still saying that they could be in trouble if Cersei were to locate Sansa.  I look at the deniability as a safety belt; you put in on, but you hope you never need it.  I think your odds of escaping punishment (or worse) in association with Sansa are better if you are the one who comes forward.  

For this reason, I think that Sansa is in very great danger.  She's not only in danger that someone might want a reward, and sell her out for it; she's also in danger that someone might fear retribution, and sell her out to avoid it.  The only thing she really has going for her is that Littlefinger has openly tied her fate with his; if someone sells her out, Littlefinger has no way to deny he knew her identity or location.  This tells me that LF thinks that either the IT in general, or the Lannisters/Faux Baratheons in particular, are about to lose the ability to do anything to punish him. 

 

[LadyoftheNorth72]

It certainly does seem like LF believes he is Teflon armored where Sansa is concerned, doesn't it? Makes you wonder what aces he still has up his stylish sleeves.

[Macgregor of the North]

3 hours ago, LadyoftheNorth72 said:

It certainly does seem like LF believes he is Teflon armored where Sansa is concerned, doesn't it? Makes you wonder what aces he still has up his stylish sleeves.

This I agree with. Everybody who thinks like this meets a sticky end and it will make for great reading when he does.

Is our other discussion finished now? If so thanks to everybody who posted. It was a silly post at times but I think I had, and still have the facts to answer every question concerning LF and Sansas situation on the jousting day and i will gladly carry on the discussion as long as it's done with no animosity. 

My original objective was met that LF's story isn't watertight as a plan of his would be expected to be and I'm satisfied with that. On the other direction the thread took, I'm also satisfied I presented enough facts to have this thread end now.

So on that note, I wish everybody a good weekend. 

 

[Blackfish09]

On 4/1/2016 at 11:04 AM, Macgregor of the North said:

I think both. There are what is described in the books as Tully looks. And he thinks Sansa looks like her mother due to the Tully look. 

Is it that hard to believe people can use somebody's last name as a reference point for somebody's 'look'. 

I've lost count how many times I have heard somebody say I have the look of my fathers last name and my own last name. Shit even everybody says my own daughter has the (insert name) look. 

And countless other people in life to, it happens a lot if I'm Honest. Have you never heard somebody say to another person 'you have the (name) look', or something like, oh god, you must be a (name)?'. 

So we agree though that he was speaking hyperbolically and pretty much all characters in ASOIAF if told about Tully looks would be all "yeah that isn't a real thing!" 

[Macgregor of the North]

52 minutes ago, Blackfish09 said:

Quote

So we agree though that he was speaking hyperbolically and pretty much all characters in ASOIAF if told about Tully looks would be all "yeah that isn't a real thing!"

 

[Macgregor of the North]

53 minutes ago, Blackfish09 said:

So we agree though that he was speaking hyperbolically and pretty much all characters in ASOIAF if told about Tully looks would be all "yeah that isn't a real thing!" 

Oops. Last thing never worked. 

So let's get clear. Are you saying in asoiaf there is no such things as Tully looks? 

I want us on the same page here before we continue.

[Blackfish09]

17 minutes ago, Macgregor of the North said:

Oops. Last thing never worked. 

So let's get clear. Are you saying in asoiaf there is no such things as Tully looks? 

I want us on the same page here before we continue.

We both agree on that right?

[thelittledragonthatcould]

18 minutes ago, Macgregor of the North said:

Oops. Last thing never worked. 

So let's get clear. Are you saying in asoiaf there is no such things as Tully looks? 

I want us on the same page here before we continue.

Are you saying there is a 'look' that is only distinctive to Tullys?

And that in other kingdoms people would see these looks and immediately think that must be a Tully?

[Macgregor of the North]

Just now, Blackfish09 said:

We both agree on that right?

Wrong. Balls in your court. How shall we proceed? 

[Blackfish09]

Then we definitely agree LF's plan is foolproof?