Let's Find The Swords

[Seams]

On 4/16/2016 at 10:52 PM, Curled Finger said:

Well Seams, that's exactly how you will learn and formulate your own sword lore!   I read ahead to Blind Beth's reply and I have to agree with her in this instance, but you are putting things together and that is the only way any of us will learn anything.   I don't mean to patronize, so please don't be offended if I cover something you are already well aware of, it's just easier for me to explain the whole thing rather than pieces of this sword quandary.   The Last Hero had 12 companions and a dog.   I believe there will be some sort of reenactment of the Last Hero's journey.   Not precisely the same events will befall the heroes and I'm not even sure they will even all make it beyond the Wall, but the named Valyrian Swords are definitely destined for 12 hero companions.   So we need 12 swords.   We have 6 of them and 3 - 4  more we are reasonably certain of, but we are still missing 2-3 swords with no clue as to their fates or whereabouts.   Ok, we have a couple of ideas about 1 of those last 3, so there are 2 we are just know nothing about.   Our 12 VS swords are all different sizes and colors. We have the curious occurrence of a Lysenni sword being listed as a Westerosi sword.   Our 12 VS swords are NOT the original companions' swords.   Ours have only been around 500 years at the longest.   The original Lady Forlorn and Ice were ancient swords as it appears Dawn was as well.   None of these 3 original swords were VS and of course, Dawn still isn't VS.  Our problem is not one us actually knows a lot about any of the swords.    We know more about Dark Sister and Oathkeeper than any of the rest of them.  

You seem to be interested in this Seams and I encourage you to keep finding things.   This is the 1st time I've ever seen the Kings of Winter crown brought up in relation to the magic swords.  I have to give you 2 thumbs up because that was aware reading and may very well be important in another part of this massive story.  

Another question: Why worry about only the twelve swords that have (so far) been named? Can't the twelve swords you seek come out of the unnamed reserves? This is part of the dialogue between Tyrion and Tywin about Valyrian Steel swords:

“Valyrian steel?”

“Yes,” Lord Tywin said, in a tone of deep satisfaction.

At long last, Father? Valyrian steel blades were scarce and costly, yet thousands remained in the world, perhaps two hundred in the Seven Kingdoms alone. It had always irked his father that none belonged to House Lannister. The old Kings of the Rock had owned such a weapon, but the greatsword Brightroar had been lost when the second King Tommen carried it back to Valyria on his fool’s quest. He had never returned; nor had Uncle Gery, the youngest and most reckless of his father’s brothers, who had gone seeking after the lost sword some eight years past.

Thrice at least Lord Tywin had offered to buy Valyrian longswords from impoverished lesser houses, but his advances had always been firmly rebuffed. The little lordlings would gladly part with their daughters should a Lannister come asking, but they cherished their old family swords.

 

 

 

[Curled Finger]

1 hour ago, Ser Knute said:

Well we have: 

Longclaw in the North

Nightfall & RedRain in the Iron Islands (is Harlaw one of the IB that came inland in the North with Asha or is he still on the islands or even with Victarion?)

Heartsbane in the Reach

Oathkeeper in the Riverlands with Brienne, so still on the move!  

Widow's Wail likely in the Crownlands

Blackfyre possibly in the Reach or Stormlands, but with JC and Aegon as most likely.

Dark Sister likely in the North w/Bloodraven.

Lady Forlorn in the Vale.

Leaving, Vigilance, Orphan-Maker still likely in the Reach and an outside shot with Truth, Lamentation and Brighroar as unknowns yes?

Pretty much.   Lamentation was destroyed in the Dragon Pit and if Euron doesn't have Brightroar we will never see it.   Their missing is why we needed OK & WW.  Tumbledon is I believe 50 miles south of King's Landing.  I'm not sure if that's The Reach or Crownlands.  On the map it's directly west of the Kingswood and south of the Isle of Faces.  Looking at it this way It could be the Riverlands.  The map doesn't have lines of demarcation.   And Tarly was commanded to get his happy Heartsbane to King's Landing, presumably for Marg's trial.  So, with the swords at the locations you've given that is 3 on the move. 

I believe Harlaw is still on the Iron Islands but I'm sure he and Drumm will head for Old Town with Euron.  chrisdaw has a couple of cool quotes indicating that Garland Tyrell will win Nightfall at Old Town. Either way I do expect both swords to be taken at Old Town.

And I'm sorry if I've mislocated the Wall.   I guess it is the line between the North and Beyond the Wall.   I gave Longclaw to North of the Wall, but the Wall itself is still considered the North.  

I'm unsure if the swords need to end up in their original places before they all go north but the potential companions are all over the place so they all need to move.   I wouldn't mind seeing them join the quest in pairs.  

[Curled Finger]

58 minutes ago, Seams said:

Another question: Why worry about only the twelve swords that have (so far) been named? Can't the twelve swords you seek come out of the unnamed reserves? This is part of the dialogue between Tyrion and Tywin about Valyrian Steel swords:

“Valyrian steel?”

“Yes,” Lord Tywin said, in a tone of deep satisfaction.

At long last, Father? Valyrian steel blades were scarce and costly, yet thousands remained in the world, perhaps two hundred in the Seven Kingdoms alone. It had always irked his father that none belonged to House Lannister. The old Kings of the Rock had owned such a weapon, but the greatsword Brightroar had been lost when the second King Tommen carried it back to Valyria on his fool’s quest. He had never returned; nor had Uncle Gery, the youngest and most reckless of his father’s brothers, who had gone seeking after the lost sword some eight years past.

Thrice at least Lord Tywin had offered to buy Valyrian longswords from impoverished lesser houses, but his advances had always been firmly rebuffed. The little lordlings would gladly part with their daughters should a Lannister come asking, but they cherished their old family swords.

 

 

 

That's a really good question, Seams.   We have 12 NAMED VS swords in Westeros and we don't even know they are all in Westeros. Little by little all of these swords are given histories as illustrious as some of the houses. A lot of sword math plays into the paragraph you quoted.   Thrice Tywin attempted to buy swords from poor families who still had swords.  Hmm, how many of the lesser houses are that poor?   Corbray, sure.  Drumm, who knows?   Mormont, you tell me. The Hightowers, Starks, Tarlys and Harlaws have money.    Tywin knew where swords are that we don't know anything about.  The list of the 12 named VS swords was published before the World Book.   Jamie speaks of blades and there are plenty of blades but only 12 swords.   Ser Knute suggested another sword could be forged by melting other VS items and it's possible. (Blind Beth offered to reforge Heartsbane in to two smaller swords just as Ice was).  Still these original 12 swords minus the 3 that were irrevocably lost plus the 2 new swords keeps adding up to 12.  We need 12 swords to match the hero companions for the next Last Hero.   I think the real point to my 12 swords is that they are unique, named and valuable.   Outside of some ancient heroes' swords, Joffrey's stupid swords and Needle, named swords are a rare thing in this story.   Named Valyrian Steel swords are even more rare. Blackfyre and Dark Sister will appear in TWOW.  It stand to reason that Vigilance, Widows Wail and Orphan maker will also appear. Truth is not so easy to confidently predict but if I had to choose or die I would say Truth has to appear.   It's got to be all 12.   So all that and I enjoy the heck out of the hunt and possibilities once all the swords come to light. 

[Modesty Lannister]

While I agree that will be some kind of re-enactment of the Last Hero story, I'd be cautious when it comes to even redistribution of 12 swords amongst kingdoms.  That does not resemble GRMM's way of writing. I believe swords will be where needed, but many will be there by chance. Also, I believe that we should rethink these "iron swords" in Winterfell. First of all, the First Men did not know how to work iron. They used bronze for arms. So, isn't it odd that the swords in Winterfell sitting on the graves of Kings of Winter happen to be iron? That proves that they were put there way after Kings of Winter died. And I already mentioned lady Dustin's little suspicious excursion. So, these swords may prove to be something else. I also wouldn't underestimate Bloodraven and Aemon, if I thought these two characters to be ignorant of things to come. So, any VSS Bloodraven could get, he would be taking with him to the wall. Not just Dark Sister, but Brightfyre if he took it off Bittersteel. Finally, I do not think of the 12 swords as being bought from Valyrians, but as a gift, necessary for the ultimate fight. So, only the families that took part in the first fight for the Dawn got the swords. Remember the Pact and the oath that Meera and Jojen recite in Winterfell? "I swear by ice and fire ..." Also, remember that Starks and Targaryens never fought during Aegon's conquest and finally that they signed the Pact of Ice and Fire (TWOIAF). 

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

I have long believed Sansa ill behead LF, and I love the idea of her doing so with Widows Wail, which I always associate with Catelyn's anguished cry as her throat is slit. And being made from her fathers sword,and named as it were for her mother, the woman LF loved and the man he ostensibly had killed seems to me, perfect! 

Given too that she wished to place Joffrey's head on a spike, the man whom she believed was responsible for her fathers death. And she places the head of SR's doll - the giant. On the gate house of her snow Winterfell. The head representing LF's in this case. 

I'm loving it! 

 

As to other aspects of the discussion, I honestly think Lamentation has to be the VS sword said to have been used to sever Syrax's wing. For two VS swords to have been wielded that day in the DragonPit without mention seems odd, the majority of those present where smallfolk, chances are Royce went down, and this dude snatched up his sword cutting Syrax before either loosing it again in the melee or secretly making off with it. Never to be seen again, stashed in some hall or holdfast, the families pride and shame,as we know a noble should have returned such an ancestral sword to it's house. 

Truth I expect stayed within the Rogarre family, but I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out said offspring married into a Westerosi family and took it with them, say a Rogarre married a Valaryon or a Celtigar.Who also do not forget have a VS Axe. 

Orphan Maker, is as far as we know still in posession of House Roxton, whom it has never been said were wiped out and are as far as we are all aware still living at the Ring in the Reach. And have their sword. It seems very much tradition that if a Knight dies with his VS or House sword that it is returned to them. 

Vigilance, is in the Hightower, we have no reason at all to believe otherwise. 

Which brings me to Nightfall. I really think it likely that Nightfall is House Tarth's sword. It seems a little coincidental that Brienne's family title is the Evenstar, and they reside in Evenfall Hall, which is on the West (sun setting) side of Tarth, a "channel" island which would indeed find themselves fighting Corsairs.  Also Galladon of Morne, was a famous Tarthian Knight, who carried a famous sword, and Morne was on the eastern (sun rising) side of Tarth, Morne = Morning, and I'd expect his own famous sword held a Sunstone in it's hilt. Likely was called Sunrise or something similar.  editted to add: I also find it very compelling that Brienne's family Sigil is Suns and Moons quartered. I think Tarth has some historical significance. Possibly the first part of Westeros to see the sunrise and last to see it set? And two historical roles played there by the families. With Morne obviously now extinct, and Tarth holding remnants of that covenant. Note also that Brienne's elder brother and previous heir, was named Galladon. 

Red Rain is of course House Reyne's sword. And likely will show up at some point. 

Brightroar is either lost forever or Euron swiped it somehow. Maybe, just maybe Tyrion finds it but I can't see yet how. 

Another, non VS sword I wish to enter into the discussion is the Forester sword of House Forester in the Wolfswood, Their sword is a  Greatsword, as Ice was. And oddly enough their House Words are Iron from Ice. I find that passing strange. This non VS sword is said to be a very desirable and historically notable sword. Why? I wonder if it has something to do with the original Ice? Could this be it? Was the  Sword Ice actually an Ice sword, as the swords the Others carry and transformed somehow into an Iron one? If so how on earth did it end with the Forester's though, seems unlikely that the Stark's would gift it to a sworn house, they'd have to have done something VERY notable, but the House words are to do with it, and the sigil shows a Greatsword and an Ironwood tree. Seems the sword goes as far back as House itself.

 

DS must be with BR IMO

BF is undoubtedly in a chest headed for fAegon, from Illyrio

And Lady Forlorn is exactly where it is supposed to be as is Heartsbane. 

Longclaw is at Jon's side, presumably about to be snatched up by whoever gets to him first in order to fight back the rest of his attackers and obtain his body for whatever fate has in store. 

Oathkeeper as we know is in Brienne's hands. 

 

 

 

[the conquering bastard 25]

Longclaw is Blackfyre.

 

Look at the descriptions of both. 

Both are bastard swords

Both had silver inlays on the crossguard and hilt.

 

Mormont tells Jon that the fire burner the other that was once a bear head.

Yet if one were to inspect that chapter its all about a relection of the past. Jon even remembered how at one time he wanted Ice. Kind of like the Targs and Aegon IV giving the wrong son the blade. 

The next couple of chapters Jon learns of Aemons true idenity.

 

Jon being given Longclaw just doesnt make sense to me. Literature wise it does not make sense to give jon a sword that has no link to his heritage. Yet a hidden sword for a hidden prince. The same sword that once split his family and caused 5 generation of war. At the same time the Cat is talking to Robb about not naming Jon as his heir for the same reasons. 

 

Blackfyre drops out of history after either the 3 or 4 rebellion. As it would have been a big coup for Bloodraven and the King to reclaim said sword after the 3 one. It makes more sense for bloodraven to make bringing the blade to KL as a stipulation of (guy Bloodraven beheaded) safe passage. 

 

We learn from the world book that he was disarmed and then killed. Now again why not show the realm that the sword had.been returned. It would have been a boon to Aegon V to have blackfyre back in Targ hands. But this time the reclaiming of the sword was treachery.  Meaning some of the lords expecially those that stood with the Blackfyres could and would see that as unlawfully retained. Not to mention Bloodraven is the wild card.

 

We know eggs knew about his uncles abilities and BR did spend 10 yrs in the black cells. Thats 10 yrs to have homed his greenseer gift. For all we know this was the.time Bloodraven was given an incling about the North and others. 

While the execution might not have been Eggs doing but it served a two fold purpose.  It lessens the likely hood of another BF rebellion under his rule and also gives a political reason for why BR was being sent to the wall.

 

Heres how we know the good company doesnt have the thing. Measly wouldnt have had to kill his cousin for leadership if he had the sword and when he died Selmy did not collect the sword. As a memeber of the KG him ending the line of pretenders would have made him even more of a legend. Not to mention Tywin is smart enough to know his bestfriend would be king. As Tywin was the one to knight young Aerys he had to have known that it would have enhanced both of them. Aerys as the king would got the sword back and Tywin as the guy who knighted the future/rightful king.

 

No Blackfyre went missing during either the 3 or 4. As Bittersteel actually fought in the 3 one and the 2 one was put down or in part failed because Daemon didnt bear the sword. Heagon was Bittersteels actual choice so it wouldnt surprise me if he had the sword. Bittersteel was on the run and did have friends that could have held the sword while he was confined to keep it out of his brothers and nephews hands. Which is why no one hears of it being recovered during this time period and after BR betrayal would have been a bad time to open up about recovering the sword.

 

Darksister will be wielded by Ayra. Yes i know what i said abouy Jon and why ita wrong for him to have Lonhclae so shouldnt that apply to Ayra and Darksister? Well seeing as the Starks do have a few drip drops of dragon blood why not?

[PrettyPig]

39 minutes ago, the conquering bastard 25 said:

Longclaw is Blackfyre.

 

Look at the descriptions of both. 

Both are bastard swords

Both had silver inlays on the crossguard and hilt.

 

Mormont tells Jon that the fire burner the other that was once a bear head.

Yet if one were to inspect that chapter its all about a relection of the past. Jon even remembered how at one time he wanted Ice. Kind of like the Targs and Aegon IV giving the wrong son the blade. 

The next couple of chapters Jon learns of Aemons true idenity.

 

Jon being given Longclaw just doesnt make sense to me. Literature wise it does not make sense to give jon a sword that has no link to his heritage. Yet a hidden sword for a hidden prince. The same sword that once split his family and caused 5 generation of war. At the same time the Cat is talking to Robb about not naming Jon as his heir for the same reasons. 

 

 

 

YES.

There is also some seriously huge wonkiness with House Mormont with regard to timing of events in the Rebellion, the possession of this ancestral sword, etc.     I agree, Longclaw is absolutely Blackfyre.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

I disagree, We have no reason to suspect Longclaw is Blackfyre. 

If Jeor were to gift the sword to Jon knowing full well that it is Blackfyre, for surely he would have to know. Then we must assume Jeor knows Jon is Rhaegars son, and we also have to assume Maester Aemon knows both that Blackfyre is at the wall, and that Jeor has given it to Jon. 

First mistake here is that if it is Blackfyre; it is not Jeor Mormonts to give, and there is little reason for him to lie about what sword it is. 

Secondly, we lose all the symbolism that Jon will become the next Lord Commander. We have a reason why Jeor sees Jon as his natural progresser. Jeor believes him the son of the Lord of Winterfell, whom the NW have long and deep ties, and who's sons have more frequently led the NW than any other house. Jeor acts as a father figure to Jon frequently, and he clearly lines him up to be the next LC by firstly making him his steward and secondly giving him his sword. 

Thirdly, if it is Blackfyre, Maester Aemon must know so, and we get zero reaction from him after the sword is given to Jon, which would indicate that Longclaw is anything but House Mormonts sword. 

lastly Jeor Mormont has the perfect reason to give Jon his sword. he has no sons to carry it. Jorah has disgraced himself and let his father down, fled the country and brought shame upon his House. His sister has only Daughters, and their own relationship is rather fraught. Jeor definitely feels fatherly towards Jon, and sympathises with his bastardy, he hold Ned in great affection and respect. And understands the historical significance of a Stark at the wall, with Benjen gone missing, likely dead. Giving Longclaw to Jon, and having it re-fashioned to suit his own House makes perfect sense, Jeor is an old man, and by "adopting" Jon as his son and heir he gets to leave a suitable legacy of which he can be proud. 

Now we take a look at Blackfyre. We know Bittersteel took it to Essos, and founded the Golden Company. We do not know anything after that and all the proposals put forth above are conjecture. There is nothing textual which points to it ever having entered Westeros again. Also narratively speaking we can be almost certain that should House Targaryen ever have recovered the sword, it would be documented in the text. To leave such a significant thing out, and then spring it out of the bag at a later date would frankly be shit writing. 

And finally, we know that in a since altered paragraph of a Tyrion chapter from Dance, which GRRM read at a Con. There was a sword in a certain chest. Which was being sent from Illyrio's manse to fAegon.  I think we can ascertain without much doubt at all, that this is where Blackfyre is. 

[the conquering bastard 25]

9 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

I disagree, We have no reason to suspect Longclaw is Blackfyre. 

If Jeor were to gift the sword to Jon knowing full well that it is Blackfyre, for surely he would have to know. Then we must assume Jeor knows Jon is Rhaegars son, and we also have to assume Maester Aemon knows both that Blackfyre is at the wall, and that Jeor has given it to Jon. 

First mistake here is that if it is Blackfyre; it is not Jeor Mormonts to give, and there is little reason for him to lie about what sword it is. 

Secondly, we lose all the symbolism that Jon will become the next Lord Commander. We have a reason why Jeor sees Jon as his natural progresser. Jeor believes him the son of the Lord of Winterfell, whom the NW have long and deep ties, and who's sons have more frequently led the NW than any other house. Jeor acts as a father figure to Jon frequently, and he clearly lines him up to be the next LC by firstly making him his steward and secondly giving him his sword. 

Thirdly, if it is Blackfyre, Maester Aemon must know so, and we get zero reaction from him after the sword is given to Jon, which would indicate that Longclaw is anything but House Mormonts sword. 

lastly Jeor Mormont has the perfect reason to give Jon his sword. he has no sons to carry it. Jorah has disgraced himself and let his father down, fled the country and brought shame upon his House. His sister has only Daughters, and their own relationship is rather fraught. Jeor definitely feels fatherly towards Jon, and sympathises with his bastardy, he hold Ned in great affection and respect. And understands the historical significance of a Stark at the wall, with Benjen gone missing, likely dead. Giving Longclaw to Jon, and having it re-fashioned to suit his own House makes perfect sense, Jeor is an old man, and by "adopting" Jon as his son and heir he gets to leave a suitable legacy of which he can be proud. 

Now we take a look at Blackfyre. We know Bittersteel took it to Essos, and founded the Golden Company. We do not know anything after that and all the proposals put forth above are conjecture. There is nothing textual which points to it ever having entered Westeros again. Also narratively speaking we can be almost certain that should House Targaryen ever have recovered the sword, it would be documented in the text. To leave such a significant thing out, and then spring it out of the bag at a later date would frankly be shit writing. 

And finally, we know that in a since altered paragraph of a Tyrion chapter from Dance, which GRRM read at a Con. There was a sword in a certain chest. Which was being sent from Illyrio's manse to fAegon.  I think we can ascertain without much doubt at all, that this is where Blackfyre is. 

Ok lets take this bit by bit.

Mormont doesnt have to know who Jon is to give him the sword. But suppose he did who on the wall could possibly have that info?

A certain maester who was in contact with a certain crowned prince and more than like on the this princes behalf gathered info on the head house of the North.

A certain Maester who in the nxt pov is revealed to be a hidden prince himself. This same maester has taken an interst without showing it since a certain bastard popped on thw wall. This same maester has given Jon counsel and was sent to the damn wall with another scheming and not above using trickery to get what he wants bastard Bloodraven( who happens to be a greenseer and could have foreseen Jons birth and the need for Blkfyr to be on the Wall. For all we know Blackfyre was entrusted to Aemon for this very purpose. BR before that fateful ranging pulls his little cousin to the side. Here hold this u will know who to give it too when the time is right.... 50 yrs later the Others are back and the first man to kill one on the Westeros side of the Wall is a Stark bastard with dubious origins and mommy issues. Oh come on. Even as blind as Aemon is could see the writting on the wall. He may have changed his.mind aboit Jon bringing back the dragons but i do think he knew Jon was the warrior the realm needed. 

BR was LC. Jon being given Blkfyr with BR looking on, egging Jon on to take the sword. Jons friends after recieving the sword nicely parralls Daemon and Daeron. We lose nosymbolism if anything it adds to the there are hidden parts at work theme running thru the books. The idea that nothing is as it seems and everything should be questionable. 

Riddle me this if Mormonts raven is indeed BR why did the bird damn need shit its self to get Jon to take the sword. This ia the same bird that would say king while looking at Jon but he misdirects him by thinking it meant Jon. Then when Jon is presented the sword hes given a brief history of Targ history when being presented with a mormont sword.

 

The whole idea of Blaxkfyre is that its a symbol of who had the right to rule. Daemon was the king who bore the sword. Everything else is pretxt and politics. One brother had the trappings of kingship while the other had the sword that bond the kingdoms together. The sword that created a land without borders. Thats what Blackfyre represents.

Again with the emergance of FAegon and him likely holding the throne for a while. Yet JS holds the sword. Its not about bastad or legit this go round. Its bout younger son vs right to rule.

Last paragraph.  Your point. Does thes sentence say VS sword. No just a swors. Not to mention with Illiyos trade in dragonbone spices and such he could very well have bought a VS sword somewhere in Lys. Littlefinger and Illiyos are working together how do u know he hasnt gotten his hands on Widows Wail and had it reworked? There arent many who have seen what she looks like to give a description. Varys Littlefinger and their ilk arent above streching the truth expecially as they have to discredit Jon Snow.

 

Also are you sure Aemon gives no reaction. He tells jon who he is like 2 povs later. Could it be talking to one kinsman to kin is what made him open up about his having to choice. Again his choice was about succession.

Then Mormonts question about bastard that you are what would you do. This question come into play well after Jon has been presented with the sword.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

no. 

[the conquering bastard 25]

To each their own and we shall see. But on the other hand. I am right

[Ser Knute]

9 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

I disagree, We have no reason to suspect Longclaw is Blackfyre. 

If Jeor were to gift the sword to Jon knowing full well that it is Blackfyre, for surely he would have to know. Then we must assume Jeor knows Jon is Rhaegars son, and we also have to assume Maester Aemon knows both that Blackfyre is at the wall, and that Jeor has given it to Jon. 

First mistake here is that if it is Blackfyre; it is not Jeor Mormonts to give, and there is little reason for him to lie about what sword it is. 

Secondly, we lose all the symbolism that Jon will become the next Lord Commander. We have a reason why Jeor sees Jon as his natural progresser. Jeor believes him the son of the Lord of Winterfell, whom the NW have long and deep ties, and who's sons have more frequently led the NW than any other house. Jeor acts as a father figure to Jon frequently, and he clearly lines him up to be the next LC by firstly making him his steward and secondly giving him his sword. 

Thirdly, if it is Blackfyre, Maester Aemon must know so, and we get zero reaction from him after the sword is given to Jon, which would indicate that Longclaw is anything but House Mormonts sword. 

lastly Jeor Mormont has the perfect reason to give Jon his sword. he has no sons to carry it. Jorah has disgraced himself and let his father down, fled the country and brought shame upon his House. His sister has only Daughters, and their own relationship is rather fraught. Jeor definitely feels fatherly towards Jon, and sympathises with his bastardy, he hold Ned in great affection and respect. And understands the historical significance of a Stark at the wall, with Benjen gone missing, likely dead. Giving Longclaw to Jon, and having it re-fashioned to suit his own House makes perfect sense, Jeor is an old man, and by "adopting" Jon as his son and heir he gets to leave a suitable legacy of which he can be proud. 

Now we take a look at Blackfyre. We know Bittersteel took it to Essos, and founded the Golden Company. We do not know anything after that and all the proposals put forth above are conjecture. There is nothing textual which points to it ever having entered Westeros again. Also narratively speaking we can be almost certain that should House Targaryen ever have recovered the sword, it would be documented in the text. To leave such a significant thing out, and then spring it out of the bag at a later date would frankly be shit writing. 

And finally, we know that in a since altered paragraph of a Tyrion chapter from Dance, which GRRM read at a Con. There was a sword in a certain chest. Which was being sent from Illyrio's manse to fAegon.  I think we can ascertain without much doubt at all, that this is where Blackfyre is. 

I agree, I don't believe Longclaw is Blackfyre at all.  It could be, but it'd be odd as it no longer resembles Blackfyre... That'd mean the pommel and hilt were removed, and for what purpose in story?

[Modesty Lannister]

23 hours ago, the conquering bastard 25 said:

Longclaw is Blackfyre.

 

Look at the descriptions of both. 

Both are bastard swords

Both had silver inlays on the crossguard and hilt.

 

Mormont tells Jon that the fire burner the other that was once a bear head.

Yet if one were to inspect that chapter its all about a relection of the past. Jon even remembered how at one time he wanted Ice. Kind of like the Targs and Aegon IV giving the wrong son the blade. 

The next couple of chapters Jon learns of Aemons true idenity.

 

Jon being given Longclaw just doesnt make sense to me. Literature wise it does not make sense to give jon a sword that has no link to his heritage. Yet a hidden sword for a hidden prince. The same sword that once split his family and caused 5 generation of war. At the same time the Cat is talking to Robb about not naming Jon as his heir for the same reasons. 

 

Blackfyre drops out of history after either the 3 or 4 rebellion. As it would have been a big coup for Bloodraven and the King to reclaim said sword after the 3 one. It makes more sense for bloodraven to make bringing the blade to KL as a stipulation of (guy Bloodraven beheaded) safe passage. 

 

We learn from the world book that he was disarmed and then killed. Now again why not show the realm that the sword had.been returned. It would have been a boon to Aegon V to have blackfyre back in Targ hands. But this time the reclaiming of the sword was treachery.  Meaning some of the lords expecially those that stood with the Blackfyres could and would see that as unlawfully retained. Not to mention Bloodraven is the wild card.

 

We know eggs knew about his uncles abilities and BR did spend 10 yrs in the black cells. Thats 10 yrs to have homed his greenseer gift. For all we know this was the.time Bloodraven was given an incling about the North and others. 

While the execution might not have been Eggs doing but it served a two fold purpose.  It lessens the likely hood of another BF rebellion under his rule and also gives a political reason for why BR was being sent to the wall.

 

Heres how we know the good company doesnt have the thing. Measly wouldnt have had to kill his cousin for leadership if he had the sword and when he died Selmy did not collect the sword. As a memeber of the KG him ending the line of pretenders would have made him even more of a legend. Not to mention Tywin is smart enough to know his bestfriend would be king. As Tywin was the one to knight young Aerys he had to have known that it would have enhanced both of them. Aerys as the king would got the sword back and Tywin as the guy who knighted the future/rightful king.

 

No Blackfyre went missing during either the 3 or 4. As Bittersteel actually fought in the 3 one and the 2 one was put down or in part failed because Daemon didnt bear the sword. Heagon was Bittersteels actual choice so it wouldnt surprise me if he had the sword. Bittersteel was on the run and did have friends that could have held the sword while he was confined to keep it out of his brothers and nephews hands. Which is why no one hears of it being recovered during this time period and after BR betrayal would have been a bad time to open up about recovering the sword.

 

Darksister will be wielded by Ayra. Yes i know what i said abouy Jon and why ita wrong for him to have Lonhclae so shouldnt that apply to Ayra and Darksister? Well seeing as the Starks do have a few drip drops of dragon blood why not?

These are all very strong arguments and I agree that Longclaw does not belong to Mormonts. I cannot be 100% sure that Longclaw = Blackfyre, but I can say that I'm 90% behind you on this for all the reasons you stated and many many other reasons I will not state, because it would take me a size of a GRRM book to explain it fully. As for Arya wielding Darksister, I see nothing to support it. Can you elaborate further?

[Curled Finger]

On ‎4‎/‎18‎/‎2016 at 7:37 AM, Modesty Lannister said:

While I agree that will be some kind of re-enactment of the Last Hero story, I'd be cautious when it comes to even redistribution of 12 swords amongst kingdoms.  That does not resemble GRMM's way of writing. I believe swords will be where needed, but many will be there by chance. Also, I believe that we should rethink these "iron swords" in Winterfell. First of all, the First Men did not know how to work iron. They used bronze for arms. So, isn't it odd that the swords in Winterfell sitting on the graves of Kings of Winter happen to be iron? That proves that they were put there way after Kings of Winter died. And I already mentioned lady Dustin's little suspicious excursion. So, these swords may prove to be something else. I also wouldn't underestimate Bloodraven and Aemon, if I thought these two characters to be ignorant of things to come. So, any VSS Bloodraven could get, he would be taking with him to the wall. Not just Dark Sister, but Brightfyre if he took it off Bittersteel. Finally, I do not think of the 12 swords as being bought from Valyrians, but as a gift, necessary for the ultimate fight. So, only the families that took part in the first fight for the Dawn got the swords. Remember the Pact and the oath that Meera and Jojen recite in Winterfell? "I swear by ice and fire ..." Also, remember that Starks and Targaryens never fought during Aegon's conquest and finally that they signed the Pact of Ice and Fire (TWOIAF). 

Right.    Modesty, I’m not looking for an even distribution of magic swords among the 7 kingdoms and Iron Islands.   I’m interested in where they were originally (in an effort to identify all the original owners) and where they will reappear.  This is all about the hunt.   Don’t get me wrong, I dig magic swords and these magic swords come fully equipped with mysteries and possible secret identities and everything a sword geek could ever want.   I’m having more fun than I probably should just looking for them.   If you look at the distribution of those we actually have some history on it’s fascinating.   

 I’m hung up on the 12 swords because despite losses they keep adding up to 12, by hook or by crook.   12 is the story’s number, not mine.   As to the iron swords of the North I do think they have relevance, just not in relation to the VS swords.   There is some history attached to the 9 longswords that is exclusively northern.  They may well lead to some explanation of the original 1st Men, the pact, the dead Kings of Winter or even the nature of ancestral Ice.  Our 12 VS swords are a more or less national consideration.   The only other glaring 12 I can match these swords to are the companions of TLH.   I’m not saying Seam’s 9 and our 12 or even Bran’s company’s 4 swords are exclusive of each other.   If I allow my mind to wander in this respect I will never get these 12 swords on the road.   

As to the gift of VS from the Valyrians, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find some truth in this.   Otherwise how could these lesser houses afford the swords?    At the very least they obtained their swords by something other than purchase.  And it may well be that the families of the original 12 companions were in fact the families to be awarded swords, but we have no way to prove it.   Personally, I like it and have researched it.   I just can’t find any clue as to the identities of these original 12 heroes other than the original houses who procured their swords, Lannister, Targ, Stark, Mormont, Hightower, Rogare, Roxton, Royce and Corbray.   If you have a chance to take a look at Blind Beth’s topic, Secret knight…you will no doubt get excited over the possibilities, I know I was and our favorite Cat Lady may be on to something. 

You bring up a sterling point in the Starks and Targs never actually fighting during the conquest.   It is a golden point that the pact of Ice and Fire was signed and left unfulfilled by them.   Maybe it means something and maybe not.   You can’t mess around with pacts.  Still the advent of VS predates the pact by easily 200 years.  

Always good stuff, Modesty, thanks.

[Curled Finger]

@The Weirwoods Eyes, yah, this Sansa as bloody killer seems to be a thing.   I can’t see our little lady doing it, but I do enjoy the idea of Sansa exacting a bloody revenge with the remnants of Ice.   I dig the association you made between Widow’s Wail and Cat.    All in all it is a very tidy way to let karma explode on frickin’ Little Finger.  Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.

Ah Lamentation.   Could very well be Ser Warrick did indeed pick up Lamentation, it’s just such a throw away statement there is no way to tell anything from it.   I believe the quote says “a” VS sword as opposed to “his” VS sword.   I’m of a mind that the party line is the truth regarding Lamentation and that it was destroyed in the dragon pits.   I am under the impression that the Rogares and Roxtons are extinct.   True is isn’t said they are wiped out, but they aren’t mentioned ever in the present tense.  Please, if you have any better information I would gladly hear it.   I do like your possible spoils of a much later marriage  idea for Truth ending up in Westeros.   I firmly believe it’s supposed to be in Westeros, I just can’t place it.   As to Celtigars, why not?   The Targs had 3 VS pieces—I’m all for someone else having 2.   I will gladly take proof in either direction!  

You know, that was a cool summary about Nightfall and Tarth.  I’m trying to decide which way to go with the next topic, but between the 2 of us I think Jamie almost has to end up with Oathkeeper.   If Brienne could score another sword they could take their show on the road again.    Jamie & Brienne together as a fighting team would be magnificent.   Maybe I will just scrap all the pieces of paragraphs I’ve played with and do a vote for topic.    If so, you’ve got my vote for Brienne to have Nightfall.   You’re another one who should go visit Blind Beth’s topic to add your cool stuff about Ser Galladon and his sword.  

I found an interesting thing while I was polishing my research on Red Rain.   The Lord of House Drumm currently possesses the sword and some guy called Hilmar the Cunning took it off a fallen knight.   It’s a neat little history if you haven’t had a chance to read it.   What really caught my eye was another Drumm in the way back called The Necromancer and another called Raven-Feeder.    Now that’s the kind of foreshadowing I can get behind.  

I’m betting a round for all of us that we will not see Brightroar again.  I’m composing at work so I don’t have access to all the info, but I’m not finding mention of Forrester in the Wiki.   This is fascinating stuff and I gotta find out more.    Thanks a lot for stopping in and sharing some really enjoyable insights with us.  ***5 hours later...OK I get it now I understand.  

Forgive me, I typed this out at work in a Word sheet where  I keep my notes and I'm afraid it kept my bullets formatting.  Sorry!

[Curled Finger]

On ‎4‎/‎18‎/‎2016 at 2:00 PM, PrettyPig said:

YES.

There is also some seriously huge wonkiness with House Mormont with regard to timing of events in the Rebellion, the possession of this ancestral sword, etc.     I agree, Longclaw is absolutely Blackfyre.

Pretty Pig, Wonkiness!   Do I have to pay if I use that?   What a good word to describe the whole situation.

[Curled Finger]

On ‎4‎/‎18‎/‎2016 at 1:18 PM, the conquering bastard 25 said:

Longclaw is Blackfyre.

 

Look at the descriptions of both. 

Both are bastard swords

Both had silver inlays on the crossguard and hilt.

 

Mormont tells Jon that the fire burner the other that was once a bear head.

Yet if one were to inspect that chapter its all about a relection of the past. Jon even remembered how at one time he wanted Ice. Kind of like the Targs and Aegon IV giving the wrong son the blade. 

The next couple of chapters Jon learns of Aemons true idenity.

 

Jon being given Longclaw just doesnt make sense to me. Literature wise it does not make sense to give jon a sword that has no link to his heritage. Yet a hidden sword for a hidden prince. The same sword that once split his family and caused 5 generation of war. At the same time the Cat is talking to Robb about not naming Jon as his heir for the same reasons. 

 

Blackfyre drops out of history after either the 3 or 4 rebellion. As it would have been a big coup for Bloodraven and the King to reclaim said sword after the 3 one. It makes more sense for bloodraven to make bringing the blade to KL as a stipulation of (guy Bloodraven beheaded) safe passage. 

 

We learn from the world book that he was disarmed and then killed. Now again why not show the realm that the sword had.been returned. It would have been a boon to Aegon V to have blackfyre back in Targ hands. But this time the reclaiming of the sword was treachery.  Meaning some of the lords expecially those that stood with the Blackfyres could and would see that as unlawfully retained. Not to mention Bloodraven is the wild card.

 

We know eggs knew about his uncles abilities and BR did spend 10 yrs in the black cells. Thats 10 yrs to have homed his greenseer gift. For all we know this was the.time Bloodraven was given an incling about the North and others. 

While the execution might not have been Eggs doing but it served a two fold purpose.  It lessens the likely hood of another BF rebellion under his rule and also gives a political reason for why BR was being sent to the wall.

 

Heres how we know the good company doesnt have the thing. Measly wouldnt have had to kill his cousin for leadership if he had the sword and when he died Selmy did not collect the sword. As a memeber of the KG him ending the line of pretenders would have made him even more of a legend. Not to mention Tywin is smart enough to know his bestfriend would be king. As Tywin was the one to knight young Aerys he had to have known that it would have enhanced both of them. Aerys as the king would got the sword back and Tywin as the guy who knighted the future/rightful king.

 

No Blackfyre went missing during either the 3 or 4. As Bittersteel actually fought in the 3 one and the 2 one was put down or in part failed because Daemon didnt bear the sword. Heagon was Bittersteels actual choice so it wouldnt surprise me if he had the sword. Bittersteel was on the run and did have friends that could have held the sword while he was confined to keep it out of his brothers and nephews hands. Which is why no one hears of it being recovered during this time period and after BR betrayal would have been a bad time to open up about recovering the sword.

 

Darksister will be wielded by Ayra. Yes i know what i said abouy Jon and why ita wrong for him to have Lonhclae so shouldnt that apply to Ayra and Darksister? Well seeing as the Starks do have a few drip drops of dragon blood why not?

Conquering Bastard 25,  you are so not alone in thinking Longclaw is a secret Targ.   We have been discussing Jeor’s gift of Longclaw to Jon in a couple of places this week and I think pretty much everyone knows something is off about the whole thing.  You bring up some good points in defense of your ideas. However, I think Longclaw is a real sword so if you have a secret identity for this piece you will have to offer up a replacement. I think everyone expects Arya to wield DS.   But I’m not aware of any Targ blood the Starks have at all except Jon-O.  To ancestral swords being awarded to likely characters I'm doubtful.  If you have a chance to check out The Weirwood's Eyes piece on Brienne & Nightfall it explains my position far more eloquently than I can.  Some of these swords obviously belong with certain characters, whether they actually get to the character we think they should go to is not up to us.    Jon's on my list of 27 possible companions, but to be honest, I don't see him keeping Longclaw or going on the quest.   For all it's worth.    Thanks for bringing this to the discussion.  

[Curled Finger]

6 hours ago, Modesty Lannister said:

These are all very strong arguments and I agree that Longclaw does not belong to Mormonts. I cannot be 100% sure that Longclaw = Blackfyre, but I can say that I'm 90% behind you on this for all the reasons you stated and many many other reasons I will not state, because it would take me a size of a GRRM book to explain it fully. As for Arya wielding Darksister, I see nothing to support it. Can you elaborate further?

Hi again Modesty.   From all the discussions I've taken part in Arya is hands down favorite to wield DS.   It's smaller, made for a woman's hand, has quite an illustrious and tbh, dark history which fits Arya's story.    I like Arya for it, but I see Meera closest to it and I'm good with Meera having it for a while.   Though Meera is also on my list of 27 heroes I'm not convinced she will get to that party. That's not killing her off I just see a whole lot Meera could be doing that doesn't include a suicide mission.   I love a good secret Targ argument.  

[the conquering bastard 25]

3 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Conquering Bastard 25,  you are so not alone in thinking Longclaw is a secret Targ.   We have been discussing Jeor’s gift of Longclaw to Jon in a couple of places this week and I think pretty much everyone knows something is off about the whole thing.  You bring up some good points in defense of your ideas. However, I think Longclaw is a real sword so if you have a secret identity for this piece you will have to offer up a replacement. I think everyone expects Arya to wield DS.   But I’m not aware of any Targ blood the Starks have at all except Jon-O.  To ancestral swords being awarded to likely characters I'm doubtful.  If you have a chance to check out The Weirwood's Eyes piece on Brienne & Nightfall it explains my position far more eloquently than I can.  Some of these swords obviously belong with certain characters, whether they actually get to the character we think they should go to is not up to us.    Jon's on my list of 27 possible companions, but to be honest, I don't see him keeping Longclaw or going on the quest.   For all it's worth.    Thanks for bringing this to the discussion.  

Thank you very much. Its actually been a pet project of mine for like three yrs now.

Anyway as to the Starks having Tart blood. Its from two different sources and neither are direct.

Cregan Stark at the end of the Dance wed Alys(rivers)Blackwood. The same bastard daughter that at one point was banging Aemond Targ and would have his bastard. This same bastard if a boy would be cousin to the new king and his family fought for the blacks. Not to mention both lord and heir were killed in the Dance. Now if im right this Hightower/Blackwood/Targaryen boy would become lord of the blackwood estates. Alys was the same woman who could foresee the future and saw the battle between Aemond and Daemon. Now is the reason that the blackwoods would 3 or 4 gens later remarry back into house Stark around the same time as Bloodraven was running the kingdom. As of the Hedge Knight the Starks were teaming with the lannisters. Plumm suggested that they woukd have to build ships but the throne was keeping its fleet close. Now what if the price for Targ sails was the Blackwood/Stark marriage. Then the grandparents of this generation of Starks reunited the two branches. The other branch brought Royce blood.

As we know from the Rogue Prince that Daemon was married tk a Royce. No there was no issue but i dont think the marriage would have been possible if the Royces didnt have Arryn blood. As we know the arryn have interrmarried with the Targs. Aemma Arryn wed Viserys I. Her father was Rodrick Arryn whose mother may have been the daughter of Torrehen Stark. Now as the world book said she saw her line die. I tend to believe it was her male line as a) Rodrick the name of a great Stark king as the usurping Arryns would need a link for a smoother transistion i believe he wed one of her daughters.

The Royces likely have interwed with the Arryns and as the Starks have interwed with the Royces. Theres the other link.

Then put Neds statement to Robert" you had the better claim." as Arryn and Ned would have had a claim but as they are more dubious and would have opened the gates for the Martells and some minor houses to press their claim. Which if one is to believe in the Southron ambition plans (and i do) these little tidbits tie nicely into why these families were building a powerblock

[Modesty Lannister]

15 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Right.    Modesty, I’m not looking for an even distribution of magic swords among the 7 kingdoms and Iron Islands.   I’m interested in where they were originally (in an effort to identify all the original owners) and where they will reappear.  This is all about the hunt.   Don’t get me wrong, I dig magic swords and these magic swords come fully equipped with mysteries and possible secret identities and everything a sword geek could ever want.   I’m having more fun than I probably should just looking for them.   If you look at the distribution of those we actually have some history on it’s fascinating.   

 I’m hung up on the 12 swords because despite losses they keep adding up to 12, by hook or by crook.   12 is the story’s number, not mine.   As to the iron swords of the North I do think they have relevance, just not in relation to the VS swords.   There is some history attached to the 9 longswords that is exclusively northern.  They may well lead to some explanation of the original 1st Men, the pact, the dead Kings of Winter or even the nature of ancestral Ice.  Our 12 VS swords are a more or less national consideration.   The only other glaring 12 I can match these swords to are the companions of TLH.   I’m not saying Seam’s 9 and our 12 or even Bran’s company’s 4 swords are exclusive of each other.   If I allow my mind to wander in this respect I will never get these 12 swords on the road.   

As to the gift of VS from the Valyrians, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find some truth in this.   Otherwise how could these lesser houses afford the swords?    At the very least they obtained their swords by something other than purchase.  And it may well be that the families of the original 12 companions were in fact the families to be awarded swords, but we have no way to prove it.   Personally, I like it and have researched it.   I just can’t find any clue as to the identities of these original 12 heroes other than the original houses who procured their swords, Lannister, Targ, Stark, Mormont, Hightower, Rogare, Roxton, Royce and Corbray.   If you have a chance to take a look at Blind Beth’s topic, Secret knight…you will no doubt get excited over the possibilities, I know I was and our favorite Cat Lady may be on to something. 

You bring up a sterling point in the Starks and Targs never actually fighting during the conquest.   It is a golden point that the pact of Ice and Fire was signed and left unfulfilled by them.   Maybe it means something and maybe not.   You can’t mess around with pacts.  Still the advent of VS predates the pact by easily 200 years.  

Always good stuff, Modesty, thanks.

Thanks. To clarify. I never objected to the number of swords. I do agree 12 may well be in the end game. I was just pointing out to the routes you have been exploring. 

- We should look for the swords in families that predate the first Long Night as well as the Valyrian ones. That would narrow down the number of families significantly. That would be the families of the First Men + Targaryen swords. Why? Because of the original pact, sealed on God's Eye. Why? Because the Pact's words (that are most likely repeated by Meera and Jojen on the occasion of their arrival at Winterfell) include "I swear by iron and bronze. I swear by ice and fire". Why is this important now? Because I do not think any new families will be included in the battle for the Dawn 2.0. Since the north is mostly the kingdom of the First Men still, it is therefore more likely that we shall find most of our 12 swords in the north than elsewhere.

- We should rethink Aegon's conquest in this context. Why did Aegon attack when he did and not before or after? Targaryens were sitting on Dragonstone for some time after the Doom showing no interest in conquering the Seven Kingdom. Then suddenly, Aegon goes to Oldtown and Dorne and soon after the conquest begins. In order to clarify what I mean, I'd refer you to king Harren and his castle - Harrenhal. Its construction had been a blunt violation of the original Pact. Weirwood trees have been cut en mass, blood sacrifices committed and the very location of the castle was next to God's Eye, the holy place where the Pact was signed. And, most importantly, Harrenhal "was not built for humans" as Arya inform us. Who was it built for then? Was Harren building the castle for the new rulers, post-Long Night 2.0 rulers? Was Aegon trying to prevent Long Night 2.0 even then with the help of the First Men (Hightowers in Old Town)? I believe he did. Who did he attack as well? The Andals. The non-signatories of the original Pact. Some of them surrendered quickly (the Vale). Some of them burned (the Field of Fire). But when it came to the north, the realm of the First Men, no battle happened at all. One should read accounts of that encounter very carefully. And for some reason, Aegon confiscated all the iron he could muster (including the crown of the king in the north) and melted it into one piece - the Iron Throne. In ASOIAF, iron is usually associated with needless violence and danger - the Iron Born, the Andal invasion that violated the original Pact etc. Somehow, Aegon wanted to remove it from the overall picture. But, I digress. It stands to reason to think that back then, all the VSS were in their "proper" place. And it stand to reason to assume those swords were not bought, but given to these families when the pact was signed.

- Dance with Dragons changed that. As I said before, there are two sides in this fight (Others notwithstanding) - the pro and anti magic sides. Pro-magic side is the side that signed the Pact with CotF. The anti-magic side are maesters, the Faith of the Seven and Andal families. Aegon reached a truce with this side in Old Town before his coronation. The maesters retained their control of the castles and communication via ravens. Remember how maester Luwin does his best to dissuade Bran from pursuing his wolf dreams, how he speaks against magic all the time. Remember how Kings of Winter are in a way restrained by iron swords in Winterfell crypts? I believe that iron is the metal that somehow interferes with magic. It did not exist in large quantities on Westeros before the Andal conquest. The Iron Islands are described as a non-fertile violent place where people do not produce (we do not sow), but pillage. The place of destruction. The place of iron. The place where weirwood trees die (Nagga's bones). And Targaryens conquered iron and kept sitting on it. I also believe that "being rejected by the Iron Throne" was a Targaryen equivalent of an alarm bell. When iron starts rejecting the king, that means that the anti-magic side got the upper hand. Hence, it is no surprise that during the Dance so many VSS went missing. Imho, that was one of the purposes of the Dance by anti-magic side. To weaken pro-magic side by killing as many dragons as possible (top points there) and by confiscating as many magical objects as possible (VSS). 

- So, after the Dance, it took some time for the pro-magic faction to recover. And the peak of that recovery (hampered by Blackfyre rebellions) were Bloodraven, Aemon, Aegon V and Rhaegar. The former two ended up on the Wall (with as many VSS they could get their hands on. I do not believe for a second that Bloodraven allowed anyone to put him in prison or send him to the Wall just like that. I believe that was a pro-magic ruse to fool the anti-magic side. I also believe he took both Dark Sister and Blackfyre VS with him). Aemon's role in this is pivotal. He studied to become a maester. He infiltrated himself deep into the enemy camp (just like Jon did much later) and most likely read some stuff in Old Town (stuff that Sam will read to us in TWOW) that led him to the Wall. I do not believe for a second that two most educated and most powerful Targaryens just left King's Landing for no reason, rejecting the highest positions in the land. I believe that Aegon V knew about this plan in detail. Aemon was his brother and BR his uncle. And Aegon died (or did he?) while trying to hatch dragons, which proves that the pro-magic side had been at its peak at that time. 

- But, instead of dragons, Rhaegar was born. The able one. The educated one. The sensitive one. The one interested in ancient lore of Westeros. The one who read something "and decided that he must become a warrior". The one who re-enacted the ancient ritual preserved in Pentos and married the maid of the sea (Elia) and maid of the fields (Lyanna) in order to obtain the maximum prosperity for the kingdom (see the custom of the Prince of Pentos and compare). When the kingdom descended into war, he sacrificed himself at the Trident like a good Prince of Pentos would. And that sacrifice led to 17 years of bountiful summer (instead of Long Winter). Rheagar corresponded with Aemon. I'll say that much.

- What about the Starks? Do not be fooled by recent history. Starks never fought the Targaryens. The Mad King earned his title by killing the Starks. Before that, for 300 years, the Starks were the most secure support for the Targaryens. It is no wonder that the Pact of Ice and Fire was signed during the Dance. It served to reinforce the pro-magic camp. And do not confuse Ned Stark fighting the war to avenge his father and brother against the Mad King and fighting the whole Targaryen dynasty. Ned Stark was against killing of Rhaegar's children. He fell out with his best friend over this. We have no idea what happened at the ToJ, so I will leave this aside. But, we do know that Ned Stark never had a single negative thought of Rhaegar who allegedly abducted and raped his sister. We know he committed high treason against his best friend by keeping Rhaegar's son safe (if you believe in L+R=J). We know that he cooperated with the NW whose maester was Aemon Targaryen. We know that Benjen Stark joined the NW. We know that Ned Stark agreed to send Jon to the Wall (and his Targaryen grand-uncle along with his Stark uncle) rather then leaving him in Winterfell with a Tully. We know Ned Stark defended Daenerys and Viserys. So, "the north remembers" has another meaning. The north remembers the pact. And the Royces remember as well (their words). No wonder the whole ASOIAF begins with them. 

- Therefore, in order to try and locate VSS, one should look into the bigger picture here. Who is working for whom. And why. And for how many centuries. Why are Hightowers notably absent for the story so far? Did the Lannisters really lose their VSS or is it a symbolic way of telling us that the Lannisters changed sides and joined an anti-magic camp? Are any Rains still alive (should we believe that their underground castle didn't have a single back door) and under which disguise are they hiding? What about the Daynes? Etc. That is why I'm saying that no matter how hard we try to gather the clues, we have to dig deep and wide and see much bigger picture in order to grasp what is really going on. Pro-magic side has been preparing for the War for the Dawn 2.0 for centuries. That is why I believe that the crypts of Winterfell hide much more than bodies. I wouldn't be surprised that the VSS, possessed by the Dustins, is sitting in one of the tombs. Remember that Ned was visiting the crypts on regular basis. That he erected statues of his sister and brother although that was not the custom before. What if he hid more than bones of Lyanna and Brandon there? And what if he checked not only on his ancestors, but on the treasure he hid there on regular basis? What if the iron swords of Kings of Winter (a non-sense since iron was forged by the Andals, not the FM) were just markers of where the treasure was hidden? What did Bran and Co unleash by removing some of the swords? Ned Stark was a man of many secrets. If you want me to expand on any of this, pls message me at any time.