Balon is the worst Military Leader in recent history

[watcher of the night]

7 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Balon wanted more power, power that he could keep.

Which assumes independence as he would have never got it from the 7k.

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Something that attacking the North could do but was less likely in the Westerlands owing to them being better protected.

Westerlands in general was ill protected you know it just as well as anyone else. Stafford had green troops (that was your main argument in the other thread), Tywin was on the otherside of the continent. Even if Balon could not anticiapte Oxcross those green boys were no match for the ironborn, or were they? There was no way Tywin could get back in time to help.

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Robb was 15 and had decided on independence a few weeks ago and may change his mind a few weeks later. Or should he die his successor give up on independence. Maybe you would have a point if the Starks and the North had a long history of trying to regain independence but they had not.

Robb was fully commited: not just he wanted independdence but he also wanted revenge for his father. Even if somehow miracollously they made peace it sets a precedent for the IT allowing a secession of a kingdom. Which is just a stronger reason why the IT would never allow such a peace. In other words, even if somehow Robb would want peace the IT would never allow it. Hence Robb's commitment was rock solid.

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Balon did not think Robb was going to win. He bet on the more likely winner and was 100% right.

Tywin only won because Balon chickened out. Balon could have taken most of the important ports with one sweep. The Lannisters would have been finished as a power.

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Good military decision.

A safe military decision but a disastrous political decision. The only thing that sawed Balon from the whole thing blowing up in his face is that he was killed before it could happen.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Just now, watcher of the night said:

Which assumes independence as he would have never got it from the 7k.

Well wrong on both accounts. Asha was his chosen heir and we know that at the Kingsmoot she was advocating for more lands rather than actual independence. It is not a huge leap to consider that father and daughter had similar thoughts.  Which is further backed up by his advice to her about putting aside his Crown and him being the one to start negotiating with the Crown.

And obviously wrong on the second account, the Small Council were open to letting him keep his crown. Tywin made no decision on the subject, as we now know that he had made agreements with others.

He could have quite easily kept his crown, like Renly was offering to Robb, as long as he paid fealty for it.

 

Just now, watcher of the night said:

Westerlands in general was ill protected you know it just as well as anyone else.

It was better protected than the North. That is simply a fact. Even if you choose to ignore Robb's own words regarding Casterly Rock and Lannisport the fact remains that the Westerlands has a Navy and the North does not.

Just now, watcher of the night said:

Robb was fully commited: not just he wanted independdence

For a few weeks. Balon knew very little about Robb, why should he trust his commitment.

And clearly Balon was right in judging that Tywin was too cunning to lose to Robb.

Just now, watcher of the night said:

Tywin only won because Balon chickened out. Balon could have taken most of the important ports with one sweep. The Lannisters would have been finished as a power.

lol say whatever you need to console yourself. Balon had more faith in Tywin winning than he did Robb. He chose correctly.

For Robb to win he needed Balon to fight his war for him. Unsurprisingly Balon decided against weakening himself to save Robb's ass.

Just now, watcher of the night said:

A safe military decision but a disastrous political decision. The only thing that sawed Balon from the whole thing blowing up in his face is that he was killed before it could happen.

lol you are coming of pretty bitter right now. Balon was proven correct in his assessment.

[watcher of the night]

17 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Well wrong on both accounts. Asha was his chosen heir and we know that at the Kingsmoot she was advocating for more lands rather than actual independence. It is not a huge leap to consider that father and daughter had similar thoughts.  Which is further backed up by his advice to her about putting aside his Crown and him being the one to start negotiating with the Crown.

And obviously wrong on the second account, the Small Council were open to letting him keep his crown. Tywin made no decision on the subject, as we now know that he had made agreements with others.

He could have quite easily kept his crown, like Renly was offering to Robb, as long as he paid fealty for it.

 

Which is not really an independence is it? Also he tore Robb's offer because a crown given can be taken back, so what makes you think he would accpet a crown from the IT?

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It was better protected than the North. That is simply a fact.

Yes but it still was not strong enough to withstand a combined attack from the Starks and Greyjoys.

 

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Even if you choose to ignore Robb's own words regarding Casterly Rock and Lannisport the fact remains that the Westerlands has a Navy and the North does not.

That is why Balon was a chicken. He ignored the political situations and the rewards, he just attacked the faction that could not strike back. Also he already defeated the Lannister fleet once, so there was no reason to expect a different outcome. Or did he lose his courage in the meantime? Did I mention that he was a chicken?

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For a few weeks. Balon knew very little about Robb, why should he trust his commitment.

Balon should have used his braincells ... and he would have found out that the claims of the two sides are so  incompatible that there will be no peace.

 

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And clearly Balon was right in judging that Tywin was too cunning to lose to Robb.

lol say whatever you need to console yourself. Balon had more faith in Tywin winning than he did Robb. He chose correctly.

Look, there is a fight: A fights B. You observe "B wins, he is more cunning" and then you proceed and stab A in the back. How on earth is it not a self-fulfiling profecy?

 

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For Robb to win he needed Balon to fight his war for him. Unsurprisingly Balon decided against weakening himself to save Robb's ass.

It would have given a stronger position to Balon in every way, but I am afraid you don't want to see this.

 

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lol you are coming of pretty bitter right now. Balon was proven correct in his assessment.

Neither Balon nor Tywin lived long enough to see who was correct in his assessment. The only thing for sure that once Euron was elected he did a big fat U turn on everything that was done by Balon.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

12 minutes ago, watcher of the night said:

Which is not really an independence is it? Also he tore Robb's offer because a crown given can be taken back, so what makes you think he would accpet a crown from the IT?

lol the fact that Balon, not the Crown, initiated talks of an alliance. He seems quite happy accepting a 'crown' from the Iron Throne. This is not even a debatable point.

12 minutes ago, watcher of the night said:

Yes but it still was not strong enough to withstand a combined attack from the Starks and Greyjoys.

Possibly. We will never know, though Balon (and Robb) don't really like their chances of taking Casterly Rock.

Attacking the North would result in far fewer causalities to the Ironborn. It was the intelligent option.

12 minutes ago, watcher of the night said:

 

That is why Balon was a chicken.

Not really the point of this thread, but if calling him a chicken makes you feel better than go ahead. Get it out of your system.

12 minutes ago, watcher of the night said:

 

 Also he already defeated the Lannister fleet once, so there was no reason to expect a different outcome.

Of course there was. The Ironborn treat the burning of the Lannister fleet as a great victory, which it was, but we are not told how many casualties they took in the process and we know burning the fleet did not mean they got Lannisport or were even able to sack it.

They treat it as a great victory, great victories are not standard. Things can go wrong, what worked once may not work again. Any actual decent military leader realizes this. The very fact that you seem to take for granted that it would happen again kind of shows your military knowledge is a little suspect. 

12 minutes ago, watcher of the night said:

Look, there is a fight: A fights B. You observe "B wins, he is more cunning" and then you proceed and stab A in the back. How on earth is it not a self-fulfiling profecy?

So? Robb was asking him to take great risks, see thousands of casualties and offering no guarantees.

And Robb is an unknown quantity to Balon, even if this 15 year old beats the odds and wins there is little reason to think that he will keep his word. If only the Freys had been as intelligent as Balon was they too would have ignored his alliance.

He was a 15 year old, Balon could not expect him to keep his word.

12 minutes ago, watcher of the night said:

Neither Balon nor Tywin lived long enough to see who was correct in his assessment. The only thing for sure that once Euron was elected he did a big fat U turn on everything that was done by Balon.

Yup. Euron decided he wanted all of Westeros. Balon was more sensible in his goals. Though I'm not sure what this has to do with this discussion.

And lets be real, had Balon did what you are suggesting then Euron would not be in a position to do what he is doing now. Balon left the Ironborn incredibly strong allowing his successors to act to the best of their ability. This is another reason why Balon is a better military leader than Robb, he left his successor in a solid position with an almost full strnegth army. 

 

[Sullen]

7 hours ago, watcher of the night said:

The only thing that Protagoras was good at is name calling. You must be Balon reincarnation alongside with him because just as Balon you ignore the very reason why he had an aligned interest with Robb and conflict of interest with the Lannister/Tyrell allience. And it had nothing to do with the fact whether he could capture Casterly Rock at the moment or not.

Robb wanted independence hence the aligned interest.

Lannister/Tyrell alience wanted a unified 7k hence the conflict of interest.

Neither you nor Protagoras nor enyone else made any observation that would conflict with this assessment.

Mate, independence was never Balon's goal, he doesn't have any aligned interests with Robb. Balon doesn't mind bending the knee, in case you missed the talk he had with Asha. He'll set his crown aside for the lands he captured up North, returning in the King's peace, albeit now controlling three times the landmass he started with, and lumber as well.

[Knight Of Winter]

19 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Well this is more on you than it the author. I really don't think he can make it any clearer why he chose the defenseless North.

"Casterly Rock is too strong, and Lord Tywin too cunning by half. Aye, we might take Lannisport, but we should never keep it. No. I hunger for a different plum . . . not so juicy sweet, to be sure, yet it hangs there ripe and undefended."

Now the beauty of this quote as it is 100% true as we see how easy the Ironborn have it in the North and we even get Robb confirming how strong Casterly Rock and Lannisport are.

Did you ever think to ask yourself why we remained in the west so long after Oxcross? You knew I did not have enough men to threaten Lannisport or Casterly Rock.

So the author states the reasons why Balon chose the North. Protagoras is correct, Stark fans seem more angry with characters for their failiure to help the favorite characters. That is why Balon, Lysa, Edmure, Rodrik and even Cat get blamed for Robb's failings. Robb needed an alliance and offered nothing in return. Balon and the Ironborn were supposed to take on most of the risk while Robb's own army remained in the Riverlands.

Please re-read the post I made and answer the arguments presented in them.

11 hours ago, Sullen said:

Mate, independence was never Balon's goal, he doesn't have any aligned interests with Robb. Balon doesn't mind bending the knee, in case you missed the talk he had with Asha. He'll set his crown aside for the lands he captured up North, returning in the King's peace, albeit now controlling three times the landmass he started with, and lumber as well.

Independence seems to be only Balon's goal. He rebelled 7-8 years ago in order to be independent. He rebelled in ACOK again with the aim of II's independece, not increased territory or power. Remember when he proposes Tywin an alliance in ASOS, he offers it not as his vassal, but as head of one independent state to another.

Ser Kevan Lannister cleared his throat. "As regards the Starks . . . Balon Greyjoy, who now styles himself King of the Isles and the North, has written to us offering terms of alliance."

"He ought to be offering fealty," snapped Cersei. "By what right does he call himself king?"

 

[thelittledragonthatcould]

1 hour ago, Knight Of Winter said:

Please re-read the post I made and answer the arguments presented in them.

Please reread the thread, those arguments *such as they are* have already been answered/refuted many a time.

[Sullen]

6 hours ago, Knight Of Winter said:

Independence seems to be only Balon's goal. He rebelled 7-8 years ago in order to be independent. He rebelled in ACOK again with the aim of II's independece, not increased territory or power. Remember when he proposes Tywin an alliance in ASOS, he offers it not as his vassal, but as head of one independent state to another.

Ser Kevan Lannister cleared his throat. "As regards the Starks . . . Balon Greyjoy, who now styles himself King of the Isles and the North, has written to us offering terms of alliance."

"He ought to be offering fealty," snapped Cersei. "By what right does he call himself king?"

For his first rebellion, sure.

For his second, nah. His talk to Asha wouldn't make any sense if he did not intend to set his crown aside eventually. Him reaching out to Tywin while still claiming to be a King is merely haggling.

[Hugorfonics]

6 hours ago, Sullen said:

His talk to Asha wouldn't make any sense if he did not intend to set his crown aside eventually. Him reaching out to Tywin while still claiming to be a King is merely haggling.

But why crown yourself in the first place? 

Balon wanted the old way, before Targaryens the Greyjoys were doing good, Balon wanted that again

[thelittledragonthatcould]

8 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

But why crown yourself in the first place? 

Because it is easier to get men to fight for a cause than it is for (relatively) poor lands. Independence or riches are much better inspirations for the general captains of the Ironborn than the promise of a better and more secure future.

Asha's (and likely Balon) intentions seem modest. They needed some shine.

8 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Balon wanted the old way, before Targaryens the Greyjoys were doing good, Balon wanted that again

Right. The old way is only successful when it is against a multitude of similar size nations. Robb was not advocating that but a Westeros split into two, the Southern kingdom being almost as strong as it was under the Targaryens/Baratheons.

The old way involves picking on weaker nations. Which in this case would be the North. I'm not really sure Robb thought his offer through. The North and Iron Islands becoming independent would mean they were destined to become enemies again.

[Hugorfonics]

5 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Because it is easier to get men to fight for a cause than it is for (relatively) poor lands. Independence or riches are much better inspirations for the general captains of the Ironborn than the promise of a better and more secure future.

Asha's (and likely Balon) intentions seem modest. They needed some shine.

Are you saying the ironborn had questionable loyalty to Balon? Antagonizing the crown is a steep price for loyalty amongst subjects. I suppose its possible, though gambling on mercy when people like Joffrey or Cersei are liable to take command of the crown is pretty foolish. 

I think he put a crown on the first time because he underestimated Roberts grip on the young nation, and the second time because it elevated him to his peers; and pride in both cases. To bend the knee is just the last resort, not the goal.

5 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

 

Right. The old way is only successful when it is against a multitude of similar size nations. Robb was not advocating that but a Westeros split into two, the Southern kingdom being almost as strong as it was under the Targaryens/Baratheons.

Who the hell knows what Robb wanted, he acts like the eyrie iron islands and river lands are his birth right, and sees no problem marrying a westerner or reachlady and claim king of just the north.

 

5 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

The old way involves picking on weaker nations. Which in this case would be the North. I'm not really sure Robb thought his offer through. The North and Iron Islands becoming independent would mean they were destined to become enemies again.

Well, that's why he "gives" him a crown. 

Its not a terrible offer, bad wording. Should he have spurred Balin and not ask for help? And as Cat said, last time he lost 2 sons, maybe Theon dying was in Balons expectations.  

Robb just should have left better defenses and not takin his whole country, minus Ramsay Bolton, south

[James Arryn]

Yeah, he's terrible. 

[thelittledragonthatcould]

8 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Are you saying the ironborn had questionable loyalty to Balon?

No. At no point did I say that. Sorry. I was assuming that people on this board had a fair understanding of the feudal system. I apologize for not catering my response to people ignorant of it. Mea Culpa!

Vassals are not robots. A Lord can not expect them to fight for any cause nor can he expect them to do it indefinitely. Cat makes mention of this at Moat Cailin in regards to the Northern army. It should also be noted that the Northmen have a better cause, the freedom of Ned, while some are excited about the prospect of capturing Southern nobles to ransom off.

Balon's plans of attacking the poor North while the majority of his army sit indefinitely at Moat Cailin waiting for Robb is not a glamorous proposition. The prospect of independence spices it up.

We know that Asha was Balon's chosen heir and the person he is most likely to have shared his grand scheme with. We know that he had told her that he had little problem putting aside his crown and that it was he who started negotiations of peace with Tywin. And we also know what Asha's plan was at the Kingsmoot; more land, not independence.

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I think he put a crown on the first time because he underestimated Roberts grip on the young nation, and the second time because it elevated him to his peers; and pride in both cases. To bend the knee is just the last resort, not the goal.

You are right about the first time. He underestimated the stability of Robert's kingdom. He wrongly assumed that the Reach and Dorne would follow his lead. He badly misfired and instead cemented Robert's crown.

I believe you are wrong about the second time. For starters he had no need to elevate his position, the Ironborn were gaga for him. And if it was a last resort then why did he start negotiating so early and under no pressure from the Crown. He may even have gotten his wish of remaining King of the Iron Islands as  a client kingdom to the Throne (much like Renly was willing to let Robb be one), certainly the Reach Lords on the Small Council had no problem with this offer.

 

8 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

 

Who the hell knows what Robb wanted, he acts like the eyrie iron islands and river lands are his birth right, and sees no problem marrying a westerner or reachlady and claim king of just the north.

See that was probably Robb's biggest problem. Had he crowned Edmure/Hoster, tried to get Lysa to declare her son King then the offer to Balon may have been more tempting. A return to the Seven Kingdoms and a chance for the Ironborn to revert back to the 'Old Way'. He didn't, his offer was a tiny Kingdom for Balon and two huge kingdoms of Westeros.

8 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Its not a terrible offer, bad wording.

Of course it was. He was asking Balon to do most of the work in the Westerlands while the vast majority of his army were safe in the Riverlands. Balon was taking all the risk with the real possibility of ending up with nothing.

8 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

 

Should he have spurred Balin and not ask for help?

He should have made a better offer. Guaranteed lands in Robb's own kingdom regardless of whether he was successful in the Westerlands. Marriage alliances, maybe even some nobles as guests.hostages as a show of good faith.  His offer of 'booty' was pretty disrespectful and the fact that Robb was unwilling to risk the army he brought West with him on Lannisport or CR shows how hard it would have been.

8 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

And as Cat said, last time he lost 2 sons, maybe Theon dying was in Balons expectations.  

The last time he challenged the Crown. He clearly has learnt his lesson

8 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Robb just should have left better defenses and not takin his whole country, minus Ramsay Bolton, south

Sure. Robb and Theon were young men who did not know what was truly happening South. I don't think they could have predicted how long they would have been gone for.

[Sullen]

15 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

But why crown yourself in the first place? 

It motivates your vassals to follow you in your landgrab? It gives him something to give up at the negotiation table when time comes to make a deal with the Crown?

I personally think it was an unnecessary gamble, but it's not completely senseless.

15 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Balon wanted the old way, before Targaryens the Greyjoys were doing good, Balon wanted that again

As thelittledragonthatcould mentioned above, I think he had goals similar to Asha's, that is to say, lands and long term power rather than simple plunder. If the Ironborn could feel like they had the Old Way for a little while (or that they gained their new lands through the Old Way), then all the better.

[Hugorfonics]

25 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

No. At no point did I say that. Sorry. I was assuming that people on this board had a fair understanding of the feudal system. I apologize for not catering my response to people ignorant of it. Mea Culpa!

Vassals are not robots. A Lord can not expect them to fight for any cause nor can he expect them to do it indefinitely. Cat makes mention of this at Moat Cailin in regards to the Northern army. It should also be noted that the Northmen have a better cause, the freedom of Ned, while some are excited about the prospect of capturing Southern nobles to ransom off.

Always insulting

Where is it alluded that Balons men have questionable loyalty.

Dude, Greyjoys aren't Starks. Karstark would have peace on those terms, Iornborn love raiding. Plus, we do not sow. Why pay the gold price when you can pay the iron.

29 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Balon's plans of attacking the poor North while the majority of his army sit indefinitely at Moat Cailin waiting for Robb is not a glamorous proposition. The prospect of independence spices it up

I get that, people like spices. But the crown does not.

36 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

We know that Asha was Balon's chosen heir and the person he is most likely to have shared his grand scheme with. We know that he had told her that he had little problem putting aside his crown and that it was he who started negotiations of peace with Tywin. And we also know what Asha's plan was at the Kingsmoot; more land, not independence.

Started negotiations of peace with Tywin? (It was actually Tyrion) that's not how I'd say it. Balon claimed half of Westeros, Lannister didnt respond.

Asha wanted less land actually

39 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

You are right about the first time. He underestimated the stability of Robert's kingdom. He wrongly assumed that the Reach and Dorne would follow his lead. He badly misfired and instead cemented Robert's crown.

 I believe you are wrong about the second time. For starters he had no need to elevate his position, the Ironborn were gaga for him. And if it was a last resort then why did he start negotiating so early and under no pressure from the Crown. He may even have gotten his wish of remaining King of the Iron Islands as  a client kingdom to the Throne (much like Renly was willing to let Robb be one), certainly the Reach Lords on the Small Council had no problem with this offer.

And Viserys and the Golden Company 

If he doesn't need to elevate himself because his men are gaga for him, what the fuck are we arguing about?

He negotiated because that's what people do, when did he claim to have intentions of being crownless? 

Being a fugazi king is what agitated Balon to begin with 

40 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

See that was probably Robb's biggest problem. Had he crowned Edmure/Hoster, tried to get Lysa to declare her son King then the offer to Balon may have been more tempting. A return to the Seven Kingdoms and a chance for the Ironborn to revert back to the 'Old Way'. He didn't, his offer was a tiny Kingdom for Balon and two huge kingdoms of Westeros.

Not even, give him a crown. That's the way you talk down to a vassal.

43 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

.Of course it was. He was asking Balon to do most of the work in the Westerlands while the vast majority of his army were safe in the Riverlands. Balon was taking all the risk with the real possibility of ending up with nothing.

He should have made a better offer. Guaranteed lands in Robb's own kingdom regardless of whether he was successful in the Westerlands. Marriage alliances, maybe even some nobles as guests.hostages as a show of good faith.  His offer of 'booty' was pretty disrespectful and the fact that Robb was unwilling to risk the army he brought West with him on Lannisport or CR shows how hard it would have been.

Well nothing would change Balons mind so good thing Robb did send hostages.

Most of the work, is rape and plunder. Lannister armies were not in the west. There was a risk, less then the Northerners and Riverfolk, and the prize was castelry rock

48 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

 

The last time he challenged the Crown. He clearly has learnt his lesson

No way, Theon was a hostage when Balon called his banners.

29 minutes ago, Sullen said:

It motivates your vassals to follow you in your landgrab? It gives him something to give up at the negotiation table when time comes to make a deal with the Crown?

I personally think it was an unnecessary gamble, but it's not completely senseless.

But shouldn't the old way do that? And then the promise too stop?

Me too. Not completely senseless but senseless enough. Now despite the OP, Balons not the worst leader, I doubt he's that stupid.

[Sullen]

6 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

But shouldn't the old way do that? And then the promise too stop?

If he applies the Old Way against the Iron Throne, then he loses his good standing with the Throne. Balon needed not antagonize the Throne if he ever wanted peace. The Crown gives him someone more to concede, it makes it harder for Tywin to refuse his offer.

10 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Me too. Not completely senseless but senseless enough. Now despite the OP, Balons not the worst leader, I doubt he's that stupid.

In all fairness, the senseless part of it is that his plan could have easily blown up in his face if the Throne decided it didn't want peace or to concede Northern lands to him, and attacked him, but that never actually happened (and didn't seem like it was likely to happen either, considering the South's willingness to make peace).

Balon should have done what the Reader suggested, and attacked in the name of the Crown... it's considerably less risky. I'm not sure the Ironborn would have the same zeal and would have been as easy to mobilize under those circumstances though.

[Hugorfonics]

27 minutes ago, Sullen said:

If he applies the Old Way against the Iron Throne, then he loses his good standing with the Throne. Balon needed not antagonize the Throne if he ever wanted peace. The Crown gives him someone more to concede, it makes it harder for Tywin to refuse his offer.

In all fairness, the senseless part of it is that his plan could have easily blown up in his face if the Throne decided it didn't want peace or to concede Northern lands to him, and attacked him, but that never actually happened (and didn't seem like it was likely to happen either, considering the South's willingness to make peace).

Balon should have done what the Reader suggested, and attacked in the name of the Crown... it's considerably less risky. I'm not sure the Ironborn would have the same zeal and would have been as easy to mobilize under those circumstances though

 

But the crown isn't one person.

Let's travel back in time, Tywin was warring against everyone. If Renly, and his wife hating iron born family ascended the throne, would he let Balon claim all that land, doubtful, Stannis, never.

Nor was peace (or war) ever decided by Tywin or any other small council.

[Sullen]

Just now, Hugorfonics said:

 

But the crown isn't one person.

Let's travel back in time, Tywin was warring against everyone. If Renly, and his wife hating iron born family ascended the throne, would he let Balon claim all that land, doubtful, Stannis, never.

Nor was peace (or war) ever decided by Tywin or any other small council.

The Crown is an institution in whose name he could wage war, he then specifies who he actually supports once a winner is made clear.

Renly's family isn't exactly Ironborn-hating, in fact, Tyrell was in favour of the alliance proposal Balon sent Tywin, with no reworking of the conditions. That's more generous than Balon would have ever imagined.

Stannis would obviously be a harder sale, but I doubt he's going to punish Balon for weakening one of his enemies, especially if Balon pledges allegiance to him before the North does.

[Hugorfonics]

9 minutes ago, Sullen said:

The Crown is an institution in whose name he could wage war, he then specifies who he actually supports once a winner is made clear.

And if the winner is Robb? (Or Edmure/Lysa)

 

10 minutes ago, Sullen said:

Renly's family isn't exactly Ironborn-hating, in fact, Tyrell was in favour of the alliance proposal Balon sent Tywin, with no reworking of the conditions. That's more generous than Balon would have ever imagined.

Lol word, Mace is such a fool. But your discrediting your analysis. Balon crowned himself without the intention of bending the knee, Mace was willing to acknowledge his crown.

 

14 minutes ago, Sullen said:

Stannis would obviously be a harder sale, but I doubt he's going to punish Balon for weakening one of his enemies, especially if Balon pledges allegiance to him before the North does.

Dude committed treason. His name was attached to a leach. I can't see Stannis pardoning him.

[Sullen]

Just now, Hugorfonics said:

And if the winner is Robb? (Or Edmure/Lysa)

Then Balon bet on the wrong horse.

But that's the thing, Robb was not likely to win, he was the most inexperienced out of all the candidates, the one with the least men at his disposition, and the most vulnerable one. 

2 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Lol word, Mace is such a fool. But your discrediting your analysis. Balon crowned himself without the intention of bending the knee, Mace was willing to acknowledge his crown.

Balon told Asha that bending the knee was essential in the right moment, and opened talks of alliances/peace, I believe he truly intended on setting the Crown aside, Mace not giving two shits about the North or the Iron Islands doesn't really prove anything, I highly doubt Tywin would have just let him go like that, he's not as foolishly generous as Mace is.

5 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Dude committed treason. His name was attached to a leach. I can't see Stannis pardoning him.

Once Stannis was desperate and stuck doing nothing on Dragonstone.

If Stannis wins the Blackwater, and Balon reaches out to him as he did to Tywin, I doubt Balon still gets his leech. Stannis hates traitors, but he needs all the help he can get... hell, most of his army consists of people he perceives as traitors.

In any case, the leech does nothing, and I hardly see Stannis declining any offer of fealty, as opportunistic as the might be.