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Balon is the worst Military Leader in recent history


LordPathera

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It's been said before, but I'll say it again.

ASOIAF is filled with several leaders with some being better or luckier than others. But out of all of those leaders that we've seen or heard about, Balon still sticks out in my mind as the absolute worst. Yes, he's even worst than Cersei since at least she does something well once in a while.

I may admittingly be a Stark fan, but I'm not a mindless Stark defender. The Starks and those working under or with them made their mistakes and suffered for them. I mention this now in case someone wants to dismiss my case as the "biased words of a Stark lover". That's irrelevant to Balon's stupidity, so don't debunk the topic by bringing up that nonsense. Being a fan of House Stark does not change the fact that Balon is thus far the worst military leader in ASOIAF.

So let's start with a bit of history on the man.

1) History

He's the eldest son of Quellon Greyjoy and a proud follower of the Ironborn "old ways". A strong Ironborn should take and seize his treasures through force and strength. Even as a young man, Balon was already known as a fierce and fearless reaver. This stands in contrast to his father who was known as a strong and wise ruler in his own right. But Quellon wanted to reform his people and integrate them with the rest of the Seven Kingdoms. Likely a gradual process since Quellon's men were noted to have sacked Faircastle during the reign of soft and weak Tytos Lannister.

It's not known if Balon and Quellon clashed over their opposing beliefs, but it is known that Balon wanted to join Robert's rebellion when Robert, Ned and Jon all raised their banners. Balon and his brothers apparently wanted to join the Rebellion because of the ample opportunity for loot and plunder that would be yielded from attacking the Royalist Regions while their armies were fighting Robert. But Quellon choose neutrality much like Tywin Lannister did and did not commit to the Rebel cause until after the Battle of the Trident.

Unlike Tywin, Quellon's contribution was pathetically minimal and self-harming.

After some success with navel battles and raiding, the Ironborn won a pyrrhic victory against the Reach in the Battle of the Mander. But Quellon was killed during the fighting and Balon forced to retreat home to claim and win the Seastone Chair. He rejected all of his father's reforms and began building a powerful fleet that would be called the Iron Fleet. It's not known what Balon's relationship was like with Robert, but it seems evident that his desire for independence was largely a religious and cultural one.

2) Greyjoy Rebellion

Much that has been said about this rebellion has already been said and I won't drone over all of the details.

Long story short: Balon had some initial success at Lannisport (keep this one in mind) and launching smaller raids along the Sunset coasts. But was thrown back at Seagard and lost his eldest son there, Stannis and Lord Redwyne defeated the Ironborn Navy at Fair Isle, and then Robert did what he does best. Crush things with his hammer.

Now I have to wonder when exactly Balon realized that he'd made a mistake? Was it when his first son died at Jason Mallister's hands at Seagard? Or when Stannis smashed his fleet at Fair Isle and had his brother Aeron captured? Or how about when his second son died during Robert's counterattack? Or when he was brought before Robert Baratheon in chains?

Balon's reasons for attacking are explained in story and expanded on by Martin himself. Balon apparently believed that he would lack the necessary support to fight his attempt for Independence and he could beat Robert at sea. A fine thought in theory except for a few facts:

Robert's Hand of the King and Foster Father was Lord of the Vale; Robert's best friend and foster brother was Lord of the North; Said-best friend's father-in-law was Lord of the Riverlands; Robert's youngest brother was Lord of the Stormlands and Robert's father-in-law was Lord of the West. And if you count the Crownlands as well then I can't see Balon as anything more than an idiot. He should've also known that all of these realms had previously fought to put Robert on the world's most deadly chair in the first place. Even if the Reach and Dorne were iffy concerning their loyalties and a few houses in the other regions fought for the Targaryens, there's still a huge hole in Balon's logic.

What's the answer to this question? What made Balon believe that Robert wouldn't have enough support to challenge him?

Balon is an idiot. A prideful, stubborn idiot who got his 2 older sons and thousands of his people killed for nothing. It can't even be argued that Balon had bad luck, there's nothing about this scenario of 1 vs 6 that would've ended well for Balon. 

3) Invading the North

A lot has been said about Balon's choice to invade the North.

But overall, he made a stupid decision for the sake of petty revenge against the wrong target.

Let's take a look at the climate of the War of the Five Kings (I know its only four at this point, but shush):

Renly sitting on a huge army stack of 80 to 100 thousand men from the Stormlands and the Reach.

Stannis broods at Dragonstone with barely 5,000 recruits and mercenaries.

Tywin is trapped at Harrenhal with 20,000 soldiers after losing 15,000 at Riverrun.

King's Landing is on the verge of starvation and mutiny with a barely competent garrison and one brilliant Acting Hand constantly contending with two vicious idiots named Cersei and Joffrey to try and prepare for an attack.

The North has declared independence and has 6,000 men raiding the Westerlands; 10-12 thousand men standing by North of the Trident; and the Riverlanders regathering steam and strength after the Riverrun relief. But the Riverlands remain in a state of devastating conflict thanks to Tywin's men.

Dorne and the Vale have remained neutral though the former has many reasons to hate the Westerlands and the latter is technically bound to the North and the Riverlands by a marriage pact.

It is in this atmosphere of war and chaos that Balon chooses to again claim independence and declare himself King. He then decides to assert this claim by assailing the North while much of its strength is focused in the South.

While his plan has some success with taking Moat Cailin, Deepwood Motte, the Stone Shore and Winterfell itself...the North remains a poor target and many factors ensured that Balon would never hold the North.

1) Even though Robb went south with 18,000 men, Martin himself confirmed that Robb's numbers were assembled and haste and that the rest were still gathering due to the North's vast size (supposedly as large as other kingdoms combined). According to semi-canon sources, the North's full strength is about 45 thousand, so subtract 18 from 45 and you get 27 thousand. That's more than enough to repulse the Ironborn whom are stronger closer to the sea than on the green lands and can only marshal 20,000. So holding Moat Cailin forever is no longer feasible since it's more vulnerable from the North and thus the Northerners could retake it and break Balon's stranglehold.

2) The North is too large for the Ironborn to properly control and occupy. It's a harsh and cold environment which most Ironborn would be unused to. Especially with Winter being just around the corner. I need only point out the disastrous invasions of Russia by Napoleon and Hitler as a point of reference. And thanks to Ironborn pillaging and raiding, the Ironborn would also be in danger of starving if not outright freezing to death and that's assuming that they survive the eventual counterattack from a very sizable Northern defense force.

3) The North is one of the poorest regions in the 7 Kingdoms. Anything worth taking is closer to the Kingsroad or in the East such as the silversmiths of White Harbor, but that would take the Ironborn too far away from their element.

These three principle reasons paint Balon as even more of an idiot. He chooses to assert his claim as king by invading a land that's too poor to be worth the effort; too large to ever control; and strong enough to fight off any occupational efforts once its remaining strength regathers. But this would be excusable if there were no other viable targets...

Oh wait, the Westerlands were ripe for the taking.

True, Martin confirms that the Westerlands had rebuilt their fleet, but what does that matter? Balon destroyed the Westerland fleet once and he could do it again and this time, Robert won't be able to save them because he's dead. The Westerlands can gather a total of 50,000, but that strength is spent with 11,000 lost; 20,000 trapped in the Riverlands and an unknown number at Oxcross (5,000 at least, I believe). So that leaves only 14,000 in the West to fight off the Ironborn. A decent risk. But the prize is obvious.

The Westerlands are a fertile land, but more importantly is that they are the richest land. The land is littered with mines filled with silver and gold. Most of its geographical defenses lie in the East with the West being flat and vulnerable to a navel attack. Perhaps Casterly Rock is too strong to take, but the true can't be for certain said of the rest of the Region. The mighty Tywin is also in the Riverlands caught on a war with three fronts against the Riverlands/North; Renly and Stannis with King's Landing hanging in the balance.

Best yet, he'd be attacking the Westerlands in an alliance with the North so he'd be on the winning side of a strong team up (3 realms vs 1).

Instead, Balon attacks the North for petty misguided revenge, pride and stupidity. He attacks a potential ally against a long list of eventual enemies for the sake of proving that "The Old Ways are awesome!" Though I'd point out that his sons were killed by Jason Mallister and Robert Baratheon...during the poorly time Rebellion that he instigated. If anything, it's his own fault that his sons were killed and Theon was made a ward/hostage of the North. But since Balon is a stubborn idiot, he throws all of the blame on the North instead of Robert's "son" Joffrey or Robert's father-in-law Tywin. This is made even hypocritical when Balon himself offers to form an alliance with the Iron Throne despite declaring himself an independent king.

I don't get it...one king offers him an alliance and he attacks him, but later tries to make an alliance with the Lannisters despite knowing how brutal and unforgiving they are to rebels? Which is exactly what Balon is at this point? A Rebel against the Iron Throne? Again?

So what else could Balon had done differently to not make him an idiot?

How about not antagonizing anyone for the moment until he sees whose going to win and who won't. Kind of like his "soft" father did years earlier. Instead, he isolates himself from any potential alliances and instead of going for the richer and technically more vulnerable target he assails a target that he'll never keep and will yield him little. Worst yet, he ends up losing his last remaining son because unlike dear old dad, Theon is actually smart and came up with the alliance idea.

So let's summarize:

Balon Greyjoy's greatest source of stupidity is his idealization of the Old Way of life for the Ironborn. His stubborn and prideful attempt at trying to raise himself up as the greatest champion of the Old Ways and to assert its dominance with poorly timed and thought-out campaigns that had initial success, but were doomed to fail.

The best that can be said about Balon is that he died (or Euron killed him) before he could make things worst for his people and give the Old Ways an even worst name. It's possible that Euron's plan to invade the Reach will turn-out to be an even dumber move than either of his Brother's campaigns. Maybe someone else will usurp Balon as the dumbest military commander in recent history. But for now, I say that Balon can keep his crown as the King of Failure.

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During the War of the Five Kings he seems pretty successful as a Military leaders go. He sets out his objectives and they are completed with minimum casualties to his people.

More importantly he and his people after stronger after his death than it was before he became the Leader.

He is certainly not the worst military leader in the War of the Five Kings, not by a long shot.

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10 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

During the War of the Five Kings he seems pretty successful as a Military leaders go. He sets out his objectives and they are completed with minimum casualties to his people.

More importantly he and his people after stronger after his death than it was before he became the Leader.

He is certainly not the worst military leader in the War of the Five Kings, not by a long shot.

Any candidates for a worst military leader? Because it ain't any of the other "kings"

And as I point out, the only reason that his invasion of the North worked relatively well is because of Ser Rodricks stupidity and the betrayal of the Boltons snubbing out build-up for a successful counterattack.

And again the Greyjoy Rebellion was doomed from the start. That's a very big black spot to wash off.

6 minutes ago, Artos Cold said:

Balon is an idiot, in other news, water is wet

You'd be surprised as to who contends this. I just posted it for expression's sake.

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42 minutes ago, LordPathera said:

Any candidates for a worst military leader? Because it ain't any of the other "kings"

Renly did not get to do anything.

Robb started off as the King of the North and lost that with his own men mutinying against him. Robb quite clearly is a worse military leader, fantastic captain/field leader but was absolutely shocking as a General of the Northern forces.

Stannis failed in all his objectives. Started with 5k and ended with half that. Two major victories in the War of the Five Kings, both done with magic. Needed Jon Snow to point out to him the idiocy of trying to attack the Dreadfort.

Tywin got his objectives but lost 15-20k of his army in the process and Stafford and Jaime both made similar, stupid mistakes in regards to not properly screening their defences.

In regards to resources they started off with, the position they were in when their war finished and the amount of losses they incurred getting their objectives then Balon outperformed his rivals.

 

42 minutes ago, LordPathera said:

And as I point out, the only reason that his invasion of the North worked relatively well is because of Ser Rodricks stupidity and the betrayal of the Boltons snubbing out build-up for a successful counterattack.

It worked so well because it was left undefended. Winterfell was left with a pitiful amount of untrained boys.

Had Ramsay been loyal then Winterfell may have held out for longer, but would have eventually fallen like Balon planned.

42 minutes ago, LordPathera said:

And again the Greyjoy Rebellion was doomed from the start. That's a very big black spot to wash off.

Yup. That was a political failing not a military one, he thought more realms would follow his lead and rebel from the Throne.

He had no hope against the combined force of the Royal and Reach Navy. He gambled and lost, he may have even brought the other kingdoms closer together under Robert's rule.

But, yeah the Greyjoy Rebellion was poor. His second Rebellion was not. He died a King with more lands than he began with and his people in a pretty solid situation.

 

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1. You got the first point right. His desire for independence is a religious and cultural one. Also that has nothing to with his competence as a military leader.

2. Balon's strategy during Greyjoy's rebellion is simple. Build a great fleet. Lure any mainland force into the sea. Beat them at the sea.

Quote

Robert's Hand of the King and Foster Father was Lord of the Vale; Robert's best friend and foster brother was Lord of the North; Said-best friend's father-in-law was Lord of the Riverlands; Robert's youngest brother was Lord of the Stormlands and Robert's father-in-law was Lord of the West. And if you count the Crownlands as well then I can't see Balon as anything more than an idiot. He should've also known that all of these realms had previously fought to put Robert on the world's most deadly chair in the first place. Even if the Reach and Dorne were iffy concerning their loyalties and a few houses in the other regions fought for the Targaryens, there's still a huge hole in Balon's logic.

What's the answer to this question? What made Balon believe that Robert wouldn't have enough support to challenge him?

Replace Robert with Joffery and the lords with whoever supported him replace Balon with Robb and both are same. Balon at least had a proper military plan unlike Robb who had no idea why he fought.

3. It is not technically impossible for the Ironborn to hold the North. They held riverlands till a conquerer came with a dragon. North would be easier to hold from a Southron army once captured. So Balon's strategy is not that bad. Denying Robb the escape to the North while Tywin crushing him in the south is what he anticipated.

If he had captured Westerlands instead that's a stupid move. The Ironborn could never hold Westerlands. Their strength is at sea and they don't have a standing army to hold it. You know what is the worst move Balon could have done? Allying with a bitter enemy to capture an area he can't hold also earning Tywin's wrath.  

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28 minutes ago, khal drogon said:

1. You got the first point right. His desire for independence is a religious and cultural one. Also that has nothing to with his competence as a military leader.

2. Balon's strategy during Greyjoy's rebellion is simple. Build a great fleet. Lure any mainland force into the sea. Beat them at the sea.

Replace Robert with Joffery and the lords with whoever supported him replace Balon with Robb and both are same. Balon at least had a proper military plan unlike Robb who had no idea why he fought.

3. It is not technically impossible for the Ironborn to hold the North. They held riverlands till a conquerer came with a dragon. North would be easier to hold from a Southron army once captured. So Balon's strategy is not that bad. Denying Robb the escape to the North while Tywin crushing him in the south is what he anticipated.

If he had captured Westerlands instead that's a stupid move. The Ironborn could never hold Westerlands. Their strength is at sea and they don't have a standing army to hold it. You know what is the worst move Balon could have done? Allying with a bitter enemy to capture an area he can't hold also earning Tywin's wrath.  

The Riverlands is much smaller than the North and full of rivers that they can sail their ships. 

Robb also left more than enough men in the North to oust the ironborn once rallied.

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34 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Renly did not get to do anything.

Robb started off as the King of the North and lost that with his own men mutinying against him. Robb quite clearly is a worse military leader, fantastic captain/field leader but was absolutely shocking as a General of the Northern forces.

Stannis failed in all his objectives. Started with 5k and ended with half that. Two major victories in the War of the Five Kings, both done with magic. Needed Jon Snow to point out to him the idiocy of trying to attack the Dreadfort.

Tywin got his objectives but lost 15-20k of his army in the process and Stafford and Jaime both made similar, stupid mistakes in regards to not properly screening their defences.

In regards to resources they started off with, the position they were in when their war finished and the amount of losses they incurred getting their objectives then Balon outperformed his rivals.

 

It worked so well because it was left undefended. Winterfell was left with a pitiful amount of untrained boys.

Had Ramsay been loyal then Winterfell may have held out for longer, but would have eventually fallen like Balon planned.

Yup. That was a political failing not a military one, he thought more realms would follow his lead and rebel from the Throne.

He had no hope against the combined force of the Royal and Reach Navy. He gambled and lost, he may have even brought the other kingdoms closer together under Robert's rule.

But, yeah the Greyjoy Rebellion was poor. His second Rebellion was not. He died a King with more lands than he began with and his people in a pretty solid situation.

 

Stannis has over 5 k men, an alliance with the Noght's Watch and the Iron Bank, he successfully defended the Wall and has a 20 K army incoming 

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9 minutes ago, Lord_Ravenstone said:

 

Robb also left more than enough men in the North to oust the ironborn once rallied.

Really? So why did he not give that order? Why was he dependent on bringing his entire Northern army, as well as the Freys, back North if there was already the manpower left in the North to do so?

Either they don't have the military might left in the North or Robb is making even more military mistakes by diverting his army North and leaving the Riverlands vulnerable to attack for no logical reason.

 

11 minutes ago, Lord_Ravenstone said:

Stannis has over 5 k men, an alliance with the Noght's Watch and the Iron Bank, he successfully defended the Wall and has a 20 K army incoming 

 Stannis has 2.5k men. Neither the Watch or the Northern Army are under his command. They are working together on goals.

And lets count this 20k army as fact when it actually shows up.

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5 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Really? So why did he not give that order? Why was he dependent on bringing his entire Northern army, as well as the Freys, back North if there was already the manpower left in the North to do so?

Either they don't have the military might left in the North or Robb is making even more military mistakes by diverting his army North and leaving the Riverlands vulnerable to attack for no logical reason.

 

 Stannis has 2.5k men. Neither the Watch or the Northern Army are under his command. They are working together on goals.

And lets count this 20k army as fact when it actually shows up.

Because the Manderlies and Boltons are fighting each other and Ramsay wiped out 2 k men and the military leadership holding the north together for Robb. So they don't have a leader to rally behind which is what Robb provides.

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That's why I said allied with.

Also the northern army is absolutely under his command as they are following his orders and looking to him as supreme general rather than their equal. The only one that's operating independently is Crowsfood

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Just now, Lord_Ravenstone said:

Because the Manderlies and Boltons are fighting each other and Ramsay wiped out 2 k men and the military leadership holding the north together for Robb. So they don't have a leader to rally behind which is what Robb provides.

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He wiped out 2k men with 600. That is pretty telling the effectiveness to these 'men' who were left behind to protect the North.

And there are still Lords left in the North, why can he not ask one of them to gather this phantom army and defeat the Ironborn?

And let us not forget that the only reason the children left to protect Winterfell had any training was because Cat, not Robb, sent him North. Robb had initially left Maester Luwin in charge.

Just now, Lord_Ravenstone said:

 

That's why I said allied with.

Agreed. So  my initial point still stands; He started with 5k and ended with half of that.

Just now, Lord_Ravenstone said:

Also the northern army is absolutely under his command as they are following his orders. The only one that's operating independently is Crowsfood

His orders? No, they have the same objective and are working together. The Mountain Clans seem more amused with Stannis and his Southern army than actually showing deference.

 

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35 minutes ago, Lord_Ravenstone said:

The Riverlands is much smaller than the North and full of rivers that they can sail their ships. 

Robb also left more than enough men in the North to oust the ironborn once rallied.

North could be easier to hold once you have the Moat Cailin. I am not saying it is easy but better than the stupidity of invading Westerlands.

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19 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

He wiped out 2k men with 600. That is pretty telling the effectiveness to these 'men' who were left behind to protect the North.

And there are still Lords left in the North, why can he not ask one of them to gather this phantom army and defeat the Ironborn?

And let us not forget that the only reason the children left to protect Winterfell had any training was because Cat, not Robb, sent him North. Robb had initially left Maester Luwin in charge.

Agreed. So  my initial point still stands; He started with 5k and ended with half of that.

His orders? No, they have the same objective and are working together. The Mountain Clans seem more amused with Stannis and his Southern army than actually showing deference.

 

He only wiped them out because Ramsay's first move was to kill the leadership off and so they routed 

Most of the experienced lords are with Robb. I can't think of anyone of note left in the North in ACOK. And Robb doesn't find out about Rodrik's incompetence until the end of ACOK and by that time he's planning to fight the ironborn himself 

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Okay and how does having the same objectives mean they don't follow him? Right now he and the northerners are one army with Stannis as the leading general. The northerners even petition him in TWOW

 

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9 minutes ago, khal drogon said:

North could be easier to hold once you have the Moat Cailin. I am not saying it is easy but better than the stupidity of invading Westerlands.

The Westerlands are much easier to invade 

Robb provides at least 6 k reinforcements along with the Westerlands having had half their fighting force completely destroyed and the other half on the other side of the continent with another 20 K army in Tywin's way

Also all the castles are much closer together so your force doesn't have to be as spread out 

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Just now, Lord_Ravenstone said:

He only wiped them out because Ramsay's first move was to kill the leadership off and so they routed 

How does this make your case that the North could defend itself?

The Leadership that was left was easily beaten by a much smaller force which was being commanded by a bastard with out a great education.

However you want to put it, the North easily fell to Balon's attack. Either there was not enough men, enough trained men or a lack of competent commanders left to defend itself. Whichever one you want to blame (and for my money they all apply) that is still the fault of the North's military commander.

Just now, Lord_Ravenstone said:

Most of the experienced lords are with Robb. I can't think of anyone of note left in the North in ACOK.

Who's responsibility is that?

Robb is the Northern commander, understandably(given his age) he messed up. But it still counts against him as a military commander. If there was a jnr Military commander debate he'd be winning it easily.

Just now, Lord_Ravenstone said:

And Robb doesn't find out about Rodrik's incompetence until the end of ACOK and by that time he's planning to fight the ironborn himself 

lol Rodrik's incompetence? He was left with untrained boys (and Hodor) to defend the North. Robb sent Theon to Balon. Given that Theon most likely helped Robb organize the North's pitiful defence this calamity is all on Robb.

 

Just now, Lord_Ravenstone said:

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Okay and how does having the same objectives mean they don't follow him?

They don't follow him. Have any refereed to him as their King?

They are working together for goals that they both share. Should TWOW ever be published and we see them agree to do something that is not already in their interests then I will come back to this post and edit my comment.

Until then I am happy with what I have wrote as it reflects the truth. The Mountain Clans do not serve Stannis.

 

11 minutes ago, Lord_Ravenstone said:

The Westerlands are much easier to invade 

The Westerlands has a Navy. The North is easier to invade, there is no question of that.

The difference being that the Westerlands is richer than the North, Balon decided that he did not want to take the risk of more casualties for more riches.

11 minutes ago, Lord_Ravenstone said:

Robb provides at least 6 k reinforcements along with the Westerlands having had half their fighting force completely destroyed

Source?

11 minutes ago, Lord_Ravenstone said:

 

and the other half on the other side of the continent with another 20 K army in Tywin's way

Yet Robb is far further aweay from his lands than Tywin is his. And unlike the North where there is a defensible choke hold to keep Robb out there are multiple entrances into the Westrerlands.

11 minutes ago, Lord_Ravenstone said:

Also all the castles are much closer together so your force doesn't have to be as spread out 

That works both ways. Shorter distances for the home army to respond. The Crakehalls are going to be able to react to Casterly Rock being attacked far quicker than the Karstarks can if Winterfell is attacked.

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24 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

How does this make your case that the North could defend itself?

The Leadership that was left was easily beaten by a much smaller force which was being commanded by a bastard with out a great education.

However you want to put it, the North easily fell to Balon's attack. Either there was not enough men, enough trained men or a lack of competent commanders left to defend itself. Whichever one you want to blame (and for my money they all apply) that is still the fault of the North's military commander.

Who's responsibility is that?

Robb is the Northern commander, understandably(given his age) he messed up. But it still counts against him as a military commander. If there was a jnr Military commander debate he'd be winning it easily.

lol Rodrik's incompetence? He was left with untrained boys (and Hodor) to defend the North. Robb sent Theon to Balon. Given that Theon most likely helped Robb organize the North's pitiful defence this calamity is all on Robb.

 

They don't follow him. Have any refereed to him as their King?

They are working together for goals that they both share. Should TWOW ever be published and we see them agree to do something that is not already in their interests then I will come back to this post and edit my comment.

Until then I am happy with what I have wrote as it reflects the truth. The Mountain Clans do not serve Stannis.

 

The Westerlands has a Navy. The North is easier to invade, there is no question of that.

The difference being that the Westerlands is richer than the North, Balon decided that he did not want to take the risk of more casualties for more riches.

Source?

Yet Robb is far further aweay from his lands than Tywin is his. And unlike the North where there is a defensible choke hold to keep Robb out there are multiple entrances into the Westrerlands.

That works both ways. Shorter distances for the home army to respond. The Crakehalls are going to be able to react to Casterly Rock being attacked far quicker than the Karstarks can if Winterfell is attacked.

Because it was a surprise attack. They thought Ramsay was their ally. That tactic wouldn't work between the ironborn and the northerners

lol, the North didn't fall to Balon. Balon himself took a motte -and-bailey and a ruin. Theon took Winterfell on his own initiative and was the one who directed Dagmer Cleftjaw to take Tohrren's Square ( a small town).

Winterfell had hundreds of men to defend the place. Plenty enough to repel Theon's little invasion. It's Rodrik's idiocy that led him to emptying Winterfell

They're his men. Again he's giving the commands and they even handed Theon and "Arya" to him instead of taking care of them both themselves. They wouldn't do that if they weren't his

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My source is the books. Jaime had 20 k men and Robb annihilated it. 

Tywin had the other 20 K and he also got pummeled a bit 

There isn't much of a force left in the Westerlands. With 6 k Robb was easily beating the Lannisters everywhere there 

the ironborn can field 20 k so they should do even better with Robb

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The whole iron born invasion is a cheap plot device to weaken the Starks even further. The brave ironborn plunder a few fishermen villages instead of the richest city of the westerlands, which is ill defended. Then they send the whole ironfleet to capture Moat Cailin which has zero strategic value unless hold something valuable north to it. Then they refuse help Theon at Winterfell (who finally captures something valuable) claiming that they cannot defend it! Bloody genious, then why did you capture the Moat Cailin?

So the whole makes zero sense, but without the "help" ot Theon the Bolton's could have never captured Winterfell.

 

ps. it is utterly pointless to argue with littledragon, he understands the concpets of ally, enemy and backstabbing only when it fits his narrative.  So for example according to him Wlader Frey is a genious because he won the war for the Riverlends with backstabbing (with minimal loss of Freys), yet what Ramsay did at Winterfell is not backstabbing because it would undermine his argument that the north was weak and incapable of defending himself.

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I agree that Balon should have allied himself with the North rather than attack it, for the simple fact that the Ironborn on their own don't have the strength to conquer a whole realm. With the North and the Riverlands by their side, Conquering the Westerlands was more likely than taking the North by themselves.

Also, the invasion of the North only works, in my opinion, thanks to the Hornwood Crisis (which Balon had no way to know it happened) that set some Northern Lords in a proto-civil war amog themselves and diminishes their mobilization capacity. 

 

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1 minute ago, King Edd of House Tollet said:

I agree that Balon should have allied himself with the North rather than attack it, for the simple fact that the Ironborn on their own don't have the strength to conquer a whole realm. With the North and the Riverlands by their side, Conquering the Westerlands was more likely than taking the North by themselves.

Also, the invasion of the North only works, in my opinion, thanks to the Hornwood Crisis (which Balon had no way to know it happened) that set some Northern Lords in a proto-civil war amog themselves and diminishes their mobilization capacity. 

 

Imagine how different things would've been if Halys Hornwood had decided to stay home or go with Robb 

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