Heresy 184

[wolfmaid7]

On 4/20/2016 at 8:07 AM, wolfmaid7 said:

Ohhh good thank you for bringing that up that was lost in the melee.

Ok lets start with these

"Is the brave Ser Onion so frightened of a passing shadow? Take heart ,then. Shadows only live when given birth by light, and the king’s fires burn so low I dare not draw off any more to make another son. It might well kill him.” Melisandre moved closer. “With another man, though…a man whose flames still burn hot and high…if you truly wish to serve your king’s cause, come to my chamber one night. I could give you pleasure such as you have never known, and with your life-fire I could make..."

A couple of things here we know how Melissandre makes the shadow babies.She draws light from them to cast their shadows as assassins.She goes on to say that she's not going to draw anymore from Stannis because his light(life fire ) is low and it might kill him.Coincidentally this is evidence againt the blue eyed king in Dany's vision being Stannis.Stannis still has some light left to make another son though it might kill him.The king in Dany's vision has no shadow ergo he is already dead, thus his shadow has already been used up.We have seen how they are used in this series (Shadowbinding)

"Glowing like sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue-eyed king who cast no shadow."

( Armstark i'll be ack to finish this,but i wanted to keep this here so i won't forget.)

Editing in process:

JNR if you are reading can you summerize your theory for a bit of reference.

Sorry about the long wait but i wanted to get back to this.I'm working on two points here but to answer you directly.We are given two visuals that if we remove the elemental difference is exactly the same. We see some of the COTF all plugged into the weirnet in BR's cave.Then we compare that to another vision.

"Bran looked down. There was nothing below him now but snow and cold and death, a frozen wasteland where jagged blue-white spires of ice waited to embrace him. They flew up at him like spears. He saw the bones of a thousand other dreamers impaled upon their points. He was desperately afraid."

I believe this is the ice version of BR's cave.Dreamers plugged into ice instead of the Weirwood and from Bran's point ov view he may have thought they were dead and maybe they were.But the bones remember do they.

I will tie this back into the whole casting a shadow and what exactly is that but a representation of a person.Bran cast his shadow/likeness unto the tree and Theon saw it.We know that a Skinchanger can inhabit pretty much anything from v6's little tour before he died.What if the same is going on ice side from such an abode.Casting their shadow/binding it to the ice.

Now the shadowbinding aspect of JNR's theory is what i find plauisble.It doesn't have to be sex oriented like Melissadre,just someone who is able to cast through certain means and in this case Skincganging.

 

Also,Happy Beltane to everyone!

 

On 4/23/2016 at 10:47 AM, Black Crow said:

I think, that were he capable of telling us, Ser Waymar would disagree with your contention that Craster's boys "do not exist beyond a mist of magic ice." GRRM has been very explicit in telling us otherwise through what Will's eyes saw very clearly and Sam later encountered, not to mention: 

'The Others are not dead. They are strange, beautiful… think, oh… the Sidhe made of ice, something like that… a different sort of life… inhuman, elegant, dangerous.”

"made of ice" [and held together by magic] is very different from made of mist and shadows. Its solid.

Yeah i agree and i think its always prudent to consider what the characters know and don't know and what we the readers can put together because we have a more broader view and several account to look over and draw a conclusion.

On 4/24/2016 at 6:21 AM, Armstark said:

Grenn makes perfect sense if cold=WW, which seems reasonable to me.

 

Great! I have to admit though that the "seed is strong" allusion is not mine, I stole it from my reddit thread of the Qyburn theory.

Cold equal's alot of things but this a matter of what's causing what which is the point of the riddle and the connotation of the many breadcrumbs regarding the ww......They are'nt in control they are being driven and created by someone else....

On 4/26/2016 at 4:42 PM, Matthew. said:

Dragons are neither good nor bad, they're merely apex predators - with a little extra magical oomph - following their instincts; a predator that can be domesticated. Whether they're good or bad in the story is a relative thing--relative to whether or not Dany likes you, or wants to destroy you, that is. If Dany decides it's a good idea to recreate the Field of Fire on the wight horde, then I suppose Westeros won't be too put off by their return.

Incidentally, it's not an uncommon suggestion that bringing back(?) or raising an ice dragon is the ultimate purpose of Jon's speculative mixed heritage.

I think both points are correct.We can't put them into the evil/good category.They are tools to be used yes but they have a level of complicity because they are able to affect the person they bond with. Drogon was able to reach of out to Dany as an egg he initiated the bond with her.Put her through the test of song and fire and she passed.We can speculate the magical implications but from a scientific point of view the ability to bond on such a level with another creature and a creature that is at the top of the chain as a predator( man) is a great means of survival for Dragon and Direwolf.They have an advantage over any other 'animal' because they can do that.And this can be a problem for man or a help depending.

However,as i've pointed out elswhere nature selected Dragons to sleep and do so for a long time because it wasn't their time.They are out of their era any how you slice it. They have to have space to grow and given that they can and will grow huge.They are going to hunt and crap might happen.They will tip the ecological scale .Orrrr you cage them which affects them negatively.Lastly,they tip how warfare could be done.They are nukes and someone is going to want to create a better nuke.Its going to be crazy.For the story i can't see how any's Dragons will survive this story. 

On 4/29/2016 at 6:48 AM, The Snowfyre Chorus said:

Good post all around, Armstark.  Following up on this bit... do you think Drogo might have been a skinchanger, at some level?  What about Dany herself. She's not Dothraki, of course, but especially in the first book I find Martin's description of her connection to the "silver" rather... suggestive.  

Now, we haven't seen skinchanging (per se) in Essos - not the same way we've seen it in Westeros.  But does that mean it doesn't happen in Essos? Or would the phenomenon simply be described differently, given that our story unfolds through contextually dependent POVs?  Certainly by the end of ADWD, it's clear that Dany and Drogon are connected.  (Wolfmaid's "dragon bond" theory seems right on the money, there.)

And seguing to your next subject... the sphinx, like humans, does seem to have come, originally, from Essos.  

 

Not sure I've landed on a particular conclusion with respect to Aemon's comment ("the riddle, not the riddler"). So far, anyway. Still puzzling over what concrete implications that might have.  But I think the stallion-dragon connection is likely.  Dothraki mythologies and the convergence of Dothraki/Targ prophecy both seem to support that.  But there seem to be different versions of the sphinx.  The "Valyrian sphinx" being a human/dragon mix.  The ones at the Citadel having various other components: lion, hawk, human, etc.  

So perhaps the "sphinx," generally, implies something more general about the relationship between humans and the natural world - rather than any particular mix of species.

I think Dany is a Skinchanger for sure and i've always seen Mester Aemon's riddle as a moment of  realizing that is is probably the only way the Dragon/union could work.I get the sense that the other variances in skinchanging "Faceless man,Sphinx" etc were all attemps or a longing by Certain cultures to be one with the world around them.So they sought means to do it,expressed desires in art,philosophy,religion to obtain it.But it at the crux it was always and infringment on their part as in they "trying" to by their means.I think with regards to Dany and the Stark kids and what BR's lesson in the cave revealed. Trying in their own strength is a rape of the natural world.You have to be invited,chosen. You don't force yourself upon these animals,animals that a more than just that.They have to choose you.

On 4/29/2016 at 3:04 PM, The Snowfyre Chorus said:

I like the analogy of the land of the dead, and being a place powerful in magic - could be something to that. Sticking with my theory that House Targ was always "prophetically motivated," I might also wonder if the early Targs knew something (or thought they knew something) about what would happen to them in Westeros... something foretold in prophecy, but forgotten or misunderstood by later generations of the family. 

If the prophecy includes something about a black castle and giants... well, mightn't Aegon have mistaken Harrenhal, and Black Harren as prophesied figures and signs of the coming apocalypse?

Meanwhile, with the benefit of hindsight and several rereads... we Heretics might deduce that the prophecy was actually referring to Castle Black, and the Black Bastard of the Night's Watch.  And we might guess it's very likely Dany and her dragons actually do arrive there at some point, to fulfill prophecies and whatnot.  So possibly...possibly, the entire Conquest was simply misguided.

That would sure be a Homer Simpson moment.

20 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

You're right, Armstark I do love the inversions you've listed, and so many that how can anyone deny that they're not a deliberate part of this story, and serves as evidence that there is a larger "thing" occurring in the background that is felt and reported as folk stories by the common folk, and is acknowledged by the "prophetic" characters?

Rhaegar read about this historical cycle and realized that he was born to fulfill the part of a warrior and so took up a sword and was instructed as a knight even though his natural inclination was as a reader, poet, and singer. But when he saw the red comet, he realized it came at the wrong time to apply to him, and so he then believed it meant his son was the prince that was promised. This single fact alone should be proof that he wasn't the one that kidnapped Lyanna, because he no longer believed he was the red wanderer, the Thief warrior, and the Smith, that was supposed to steal the Moonmaid.

 

Oh man this is beautiful and a certain person comes to mind

16 hours ago, Black Crow said:

I'm not at all convinced that Maester Aemon thought the prophesied hero would fight the Others - specifically. I think it fairer to say that he certainly numbered them among the legions of Hell, but that's not the same thing as pronouncing them the enemy. I think, that like Mormont, he recognises the signs and sees them as harbingers of the war to come but I remain far from convinced that the outcome of this war waged since time began is going to devolve on a single hero in a tiny corner of Westeros. Sure there will be a climactic battle at Winterfell, but one involving all the disparate families and factions coming together.

And this is where i belive Melissandre in how she addresses this and it's gone back to our favorite myth.

""The war," she affirmed. "There are two, Onion Knight. Not seven, not one, not a hundred or a thousand. Two! Do you think I crossed half the world to put yet another vain king on yet another empty throne? The war has been waged since time began, and before it is done, all men must choose where they will stand. On one side is R'hllor, the Lord of Light, the Heart of Fire, the God of Flame and Shadow. Against him stands the Great Other whose name may not be spoken, the Lord of Darkness, the Soul of Ice, the God of Night and Terror."

Its been a theme in this story that the inhabitants of Westeros really don't know what's going on.They see legions and don't understand that they are dealing with two figures/aspects.It really depends on how Geore is going to to conclude it.I think that the War between these figures as Mel says is "The War" only Westeros won't see it,not really.That battle won't take place on the battlefield.You won't see two figures circling eachother.

You'll see and army of Wights kicking the shit out of the humans and below the ground where there'll probably be no humans to witness  two wolves ( Black and white) duking it out Jedi style.Then above ground all of a sudden when all seems lost a guy (popular or not) with a flaming sword is going to start hacking Wights to shit.The Wights will begin walking away leaving to little minds of Westeros to think the "hero" and his magic sword did something.

Unknown to them the battle below ground had just concluded and  one of the wolves had fallen and the other took control of the Wights and made them leave. Westeros get's their hero and thr truth is witnessed only by the trees. 

 

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

20 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Yesss... from what little we're told of her, I can readily see her as a horsey type, dressed in tweeds, riding hard to hounds and making Brienne of Tarth look demure and ladylike.

Rhaegar on the other hand seems like a bit of a geek, who more readily associates dragons with dungeons and sees himself playing a role.

Good stuff, btw.  

5 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Agreed on Brandon and Lyanna. Jon being the son of Lyanna is all that's required for his face

Not so sure about young Ned as the mystery knight. Its possible of course but I'm not sure that it actually achieves anything - open to the idea but need convincing as to the advantages

The advantages, in my opinion are three.  

(1) Ned has opportunity and motive/character for protecting the "honor" of Howland Reed.  So placing Ned in that suit of armor fits the context of Howland's story, as told by Meera.

(My argument here being, essentially, that Ned shared a tent with Howland the night before, and may well have overheard the crannogman's prayer on the lakeshore.)

(2)  No magic required to explain the "booming" voice, or skill with the lance.  Ned, after all, was trained as a squire in the Vale, and likely would have qualified as a knight already, had he believed in the new gods.

No need for skinchanging to explain a crannogman's success in the list. No need to drum up secret jousting lessons for Lyanna, whose father wouldn't even let her carry a real sword. (Etc.)

and

(3) Ned-as-KotLT provides a point of origin for the remarkable, clearly personal, affection of Howland Reed toward his liege lord. One imagines a crannogman might best serve House Stark by guarding the Neck while Lord Stark wars to the south - as Howland later does for Robb.  Riding with Ned all the way to Dorne suggests a more personal allegiance.

[TheMiddleHero]

1 hour ago, The Snowfyre Chorus said:

Good stuff, btw.  

The advantages, in my opinion are three.  

(1) Ned has opportunity and motive/character for protecting the "honor" of Howland Reed.  So placing Ned in that suit of armor fits the context of Howland's story, as told by Meera.

(My argument here being, essentially, that Ned shared a tent with Howland the night before, and may well have overheard the crannogman's prayer on the lakeshore.)

(2)  No magic required to explain the "booming" voice, or skill with the lance.  Ned, after all, was trained as a squire in the Vale, and likely would have qualified as a knight already, had he believed in the new gods.

No need for skinchanging to explain a crannogman's success in the list. No need to drum up secret jousting lessons for Lyanna, whose father wouldn't even let her carry a real sword. (Etc.)

and

(3) Ned-as-KotLT provides a point of origin for the remarkable, clearly personal, affection of Howland Reed toward his liege lord. One imagines a crannogman might best serve House Stark by guarding the Neck while Lord Stark wars to the south - as Howland later does for Robb.  Riding with Ned all the way to Dorne suggests a more personal allegiance.

Good assessment. On that and my previous post. Bourbon always makes me think I have great ideas, go figure.

 

Couple of minor things to add: It does allow a Ned to prove his worth to himself without being himself. Shy Ned does not seem the tourney type, but may do so in disguise.The Reeds also seem to think Bran should have heard this story before, and it would seem more plausible than Lyanna, if it was his father boasting, yet he didn't. Howland Reed may have blabbed the fact to his kids, but I could see Ned thinking it was his secret all these years. Plus his reaction to the crowning of Lyanna seems like something just backfired on him.

 

Looking back on my previous post, I have to think it was the bourbon. Completely forgot about the timeline

[Black Crow]

3 hours ago, wolfmaid7 said:

And this is where i belive Melissandre in how she addresses this and it's gone back to our favorite myth.

"The war," she affirmed. "There are two, Onion Knight. Not seven, not one, not a hundred or a thousand. Two! Do you think I crossed half the world to put yet another vain king on yet another empty throne? The war has been waged since time began, and before it is done, all men must choose where they will stand. On one side is R'hllor, the Lord of Light, the Heart of Fire, the God of Flame and Shadow. Against him stands the Great Other whose name may not be spoken, the Lord of Darkness, the Soul of Ice, the God of Night and Terror."

Its been a theme in this story that the inhabitants of Westeros really don't know what's going on.They see legions and don't understand that they are dealing with two figures/aspects.It really depends on how George is going to to conclude it.I think that the War between these figures as Mel says is "The War" only Westeros won't see it,not really.That battle won't take place on the battlefield.You won't see two figures circling each other.

You'll see and army of Wights kicking the shit out of the humans and below the ground where there'll probably be no humans to witness  two wolves ( Black and white) duking it out Jedi style.Then above ground all of a sudden when all seems lost a guy (popular or not) with a flaming sword is going to start hacking Wights to shit.The Wights will begin walking away leaving to little minds of Westeros to think the "hero" and his magic sword did something.

Unknown to them the battle below ground had just concluded and  one of the wolves had fallen and the other took control of the Wights and made them leave. Westeros get's their hero and the truth is witnessed only by the trees. 

 

Possibly, but I'm still more inclined to see the outcome as a battle won in Westeros which will see the white dragon victorious over the red; but I don't see the war as ended far less won, just the battle

[Black Crow]

3 hours ago, wolfmaid7 said:

Yeah i agree and i think its always prudent to consider what the characters know and don't know and what we the readers can put together because we have a more broader view and several account to look over and draw a conclusion.

Actually I reckon its the other way around. The characters know far more than we do but aren't telling.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

1 hour ago, TheMiddleHero said:

Good assessment. On that and my previous post. Bourbon always makes me think I have great ideas, go figure.

A well-known side effect of bourbon. I've been there, myself. 

1 hour ago, TheMiddleHero said:

The Reeds also seem to think Bran should have heard this story before, and it would seem more plausible than Lyanna, if it was his father boasting, yet he didn't.

Another good point in the case for Ned.  And I like to think Ned set things up to allow Howland Reed the opportunity to take credit, if he wanted.

The main point against Ned is the comment that this mystery knight was short in stature. But since we don't know how tall Ned was... it's hard to know how much that matters.

 

[wolfmaid7]

3 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Possibly, but I'm still more inclined to see the outcome as a battle won in Westeros which will see the white dragon victorious over the red; but I don't see the war as ended far less won, just the battle

I agree more or less that the battle will be won in Westeros i just don't think the common man knows or will ever know what and where the real battle is.I expect to see political and religious motives being pivitol in "a" battle or should i say a battle that the regulars believe is important and from their point of view it is.

Dany and Aegon may go at it.The Lannisters and Aegon or Dany may go at it.Throw in the North and their nonsense and we will be seeing a lot of battles.All of these people are fighting for a title because they think they have "a right" to rule the realm a piece of land etc.This is something entirely different.

If you are speaking along the same lines in terms of "the war" then yeah that is something that would never end and as i've said before the war is neccessary it what keeps the world turning;though i think that "War" got wrapped up in the political.

3 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Actually I reckon its the other way around. The characters know far more than we do but aren't telling.

Some yes i agree but the common man on the street noooo. We get alot from Melissandre if you remove her own bias and errors we get a lot of info about the world and how it works.It would have been interesting to get a POV from someone like Bloodraven,a Maester or even a character like Leaf.But i still say for the most part the characters are looking at the world "eyes wide shut" or to quote Syrio who reiterates another theme streesed in this story "they look without seeing."

2 hours ago, The Snowfyre Chorus said:

Another good point in the case for Ned.  And I like to think Ned set things up to allow Howland Reed the opportunity to take credit, if he wanted.

The main point against Ned is the comment that this mystery knight was short in stature. But since we don't know how tall Ned was... it's hard to know how much that matters.

 

Barring the height thing which we really don't know as you stated.Would Ned have done such a thing.You think he had it him character wise to do so?

[e1kabong]

6 hours ago, The Snowfyre Chorus said:

Another good point in the case for Ned.  And I like to think Ned set things up to allow Howland Reed the opportunity to take credit, if he wanted.

The main point against Ned is the comment that this mystery knight was short in stature. But since we don't know how tall Ned was... it's hard to know how much that matters.

 

I don't consider the fact that the Reeds had to tell Bran about it to indicate Ned. Sure, if it was Ned, he probably wouldn't boast about it. However, if it was Lyanna, he's also unlikely to talk about it, since her involvement eventually lled to her death. Heck, even if it was neither of them, I doubt Ned likes talking about that day because it sort of marks the beginning of Lyanna's end.

So, all in all, I'd say that bit is a wash as far as evidence goes. 

[e1kabong]

The mummer's version has got me all worked up...poking holes in some of my favorite pet theories and tilting my tinfoil hat askew. So, it seemed like no better time than to double down on areas of the mythos they will most likely never touch. I'm convinced that the Great Other is not just a non-existent boogeyman, but a real entity looking to sow chaos and destruction. To that end, I'd like to expand on some ideas I had back in Heresy 176. You can read the original post here where I talk about the literary connections to Lovecraft's Nyarlathotep and the strong resemblance the Crawling Chaos has to the god of the Faceless Men: 

. I'd like to expand on the Church of Starry Wisdom for a moment. From the world book regarding the Bloodstone Emporer of Yi Ti, whose evil was tied to the Long Night:

He practiced dark arts, torture, and necromancy, enslaved his people, took a tiger-woman for his bride, feasted on human flesh, and cast down the true gods to worship a black stone that had fallen from the sky. (Many scholars count the Bloodstone Emperor as the first High Priest of the sinister Church of Starry Wisdom, which persists to this day in many port cities throughout the known world).

The name Church of Starry Wisdom is a direct lift from the Lovecraft story "Haunter in the Dark". In this story, the cult would use an artifact called the "Shining Trapezohedron". This was an angled stone, crafted in space and sent to Earth by the Outer Gods, and served as a window to all space and time. Those who gazed into the stone would summon the avatar of Nyarlathotep, who would exchange arcane wisdom for sacrifices. 

I posit, loyal heretics, that this stone or possibly important pieces of it still exist on the planet. Sought after by cultists of the Great Other who plan to use it/them for nefarious purposes. But where would such a relic reside? The Heart of Winter? The Shadow? No, I think it's much closer than that. Right in the heart of Westeros and true center of chaos: Harrenhal. 

Harrenhal was built by Harren the Black, an Ironborn ruler who worked slaves to death in its construction. It is said that it's five towers and battlements contain a dark magic, as Harren worked blood into the stone using dark rituals (sound like anything from Yi Ti?). The connection between Ironborn and Lovecraft mythos is varied and well-documented (Drowned God = Cthulhu, Deep Ones constructing the Seastone Chair, etc.). It is not too far of a stretch that the pillaging Ironborn obtained some dark relic and used it to build Harrenhal. The place of it's construction is a bit of an interesting one, as well. The God's Eye whose shores Harrenhal is placed upon contains the Isle of Faces (well-known to be related to the green men and weirwood trees). Is it possible that the "grand game" is not one of fire vs. ice, but of Outer Gods vs. Guardians of the Earth? In that way, is Harrenhal built near the home of the green men to literally be a blot on the God's Eye? Is that why weirwood trees in Harrenhal have faces twisted with anger and hatred? Or, is the God's Eye amplifying the power held within Harrenhal?

After Harren and his family were wiped out, the dark history of the place was only beginning. Every house that has held Harrenhal was extinguished. People who held garrison there met with terrible ends. Some who held Harrenhal went mad. Most notably, Danelle Lothston, who was said to have feasted on human flesh and bathed in blood to keep her beauty. It was also central to some of the most chaotic periods in Westerosi history. Notably, the Dance of Dragons (House Strong was alleged lover of Rhaenya and father of her children) and Robert's Rebellion (Rhaegar's decisions at that tournament plunged the realm into chaos). Something terrible stirs in Harrenhal and all the death, madness, and chaos that surrounds it are the symptoms. 

I tied the Faceless Men to the Great Other in the above post. So, following that thread, Jaqen H'ghar's presence at Harrenhal makes a lot more sense. He can escape at any time, yet he chooses to stay. Perhaps he's there for the same purpose he's later in Old Town (glass candles sound awfully similar to the Shining Trapezohedron).

I also think it explains the presence of another mysterious character that shows up at the same place at the same time: Qyburn. A disgraced maester known for torture, sacrifices (medical, for sure), and necromancy (are we seeing a pattern here?) who has a strange obsession with gaining forbidden knowledge. Is Qyburn a priest for the Church of Starry Wisdom? Does he now possess a Shining Tapezohedron of his own? If that's the case, it explains why he is able to bring back the Mountain. With the stone and a fresh host of sacrifices, he seemed to make breakthroughs that he was in no way capable of making in the past. Also, if these objects can act as a sort of focusing point for chaos, is this the root cause of Cersei's growing madness?

Lot of stuff to cover, but I'll leave it open to some retaliation and/or brainstorming points from the board. 

PS- A funny thing I just realized: the Bloodstone Emperor is a story about a thing coming from space and takes place in Yi Ti...which is pronounced E.T. I don't know if that was intentional, but I found that connection quite hilarious.

 

[Black Crow]

2 hours ago, e1kabong said:

A funny thing I just realized: the Bloodstone Emperor is a story about a thing coming from space and takes place in Yi Ti...which is pronounced E.T. I don't know if that was intentional, but I found that connection quite hilarious.

Given that GRRM does seed his story with jokes, I'd say that one was was intentional - and well spotted - although not significant to the outcomes.

[Arry'sFleas]

16 hours ago, wolfmaid7 said:

Yeah i agree and i think its always prudent to consider what the characters know and don't know and what we the readers can put together because we have a more broader view and several account to look over and draw a conclusion.

that's a fair point but as the view is incomplete, it has not stopped us to draw hundreds of conclusions and quite often contradictory.

 

12 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Actually I reckon its the other way around. The characters know far more than we do but aren't telling.

some do indeed, others are victims of glamour such as Jon seeing Mance burn: ' Men see what they expect to see '

They do 'look without seeing."  and part of the reason for this is their conditioning.

 

 

 

[Black Crow]

29 minutes ago, Arry'sFleas said:

that's a fair point but as the view is incomplete, it has not stopped us to draw hundreds of conclusions and quite often contradictory.

...others are victims of glamour such as Jon seeing Mance burn: ' Men see what they expect to see '

They do 'look without seeing."  and part of the reason for this is their conditioning.

As to the first point that's very true and what we're all about, but the fact is that we're hampered more by a lack of information than aided by a supposedly broader overview. Notwithstanding glamours - and we get a pretty idea about them - there are some characters who know things which GRRM is deliberately withholding from us and which would probably paint a very different picture than the one we're presented with. We can guess, but I fear that for the most part there's rather too much over-analysing of things.

[Melifeather]

Speaking of the mummer's version, I saw validation for my wheel of time inversion theory, namely:

what Bloodraven said to Bran:

“It’s beautiful beneath the sea, but if you stay too long you’ll drown.” (Or something to that effect.)

“I wasn’t drowning,” Bran shoots back. “I was home.”

These last few months I have been asserting that a squeaky iron hinge has been opened resulting in a mirrored effect for the wheel of time upon Westeros. The Iron Islands are now reflecting Dragonstone, and the Greyjoys and Targaryens have switched places. Aemon and Bloodraven were at the Wall and the religion of the Ironborn is now upon the north. The Drowned God now resides beyond the Wall, the north is now the sea and its upside down. The Nights Watch are Drowned Men, and Jon Snow has just been resuscitated by the cold air rising.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

8 hours ago, e1kabong said:

I don't consider the fact that the Reeds had to tell Bran about it to indicate Ned. 

No, I don't either. What suggests Ned, to me, is the fact that Jojen clearly expected Bran to know the story. Meaning that, in Jojen's view, there was somebody in Bran's household who both knew, and would have had reason to tell (and retell) the tale. Ned is the only person who would qualify.

We know Ned wasn't a great boaster - but Jojen didn't know Ned. We can guess, then, that Jojen expected more typical (stereotypical) Westerosi male behavior from the Lord of Winterfell. Boastful, macho, enjoying a laugh at those he'd shown up, etc.

There's nice symmetry here, I think... in that Bran and the Reed children each learn things about their father's friend. Bran hears the crannogman's story for the first time. Jojen and Meera realize, through Bran's prior ignorance, that the man who took their father's part not only protected his honor at the tourney - but continued to protect his honor for years thereafter... refusing to shame him by claiming credit for the role of KotLT.  This likely provided them some insight into their father's remarkable, and continuing, affection for Ned Stark.

But it's not the fact that Ned didn't tell the story to Bran, that indicates Ned was the KotLT. It's Jojen's expectation that Bran had been told. That expectation seems suggestive.

All that said, the ambiguity is baked into the story. I'm pretty sure even Jojen is just guessing, because Meera herself clearly wants to believe the KotLT was the crannogman.  So, an interesting situation, all around. We've got a crannogman who tells the story, but won't take explicit credit for the deeds of the mystery knight. And we've got the crannogman's son, who seems to think this story would be a family favorite at Winterfell. All in all, it leaves me with the impression that this story belongs to Howland and to Ned.

[Black Crow]

#Feather - quoting's gone a bit funny, but I fear I have to disagree; its just a straightforward and apposite simile - especially as it comes from the mummer's version where they can't even spell subtlety.

That said, it is pleasing that at the end we see one particular Targaryen fantasy firmly knocked on the head.

[Black Crow]

6 hours ago, The Snowfyre Chorus said:

No, I don't either. What suggests Ned, to me, is the fact that Jojen clearly expected Bran to know the story.

Still not convinced. Its a bit of a jolly story and while Ned may not have been the boasting type to crow over victories, the jest is a different matter and something to entertain the wolf cubs.

[Melifeather]

54 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

#Feather - quoting's gone a bit funny, but I fear I have to disagree; its just a straightforward and apposite simile - especially as it comes from the mummer's version where they can't even spell subtlety.

That said, it is pleasing that at the end we see one particular Targaryen fantasy firmly knocked on the head.

 

We shall see!  I am declaring this now that as a man of the Nights Watch, Jon was a drowned man and that he was resuscitated by the cold air, with no ice or fire magic involved. This would confirm several things:

1) Recall Elenei, daughter of the god of the sea and goddess of the wind who married the first Storm Lord Duran Godsgrief. This may be a clue that Jon's father was Robert Baratheon, also a Storm Lord, aka the Smiling Knight, the Smith, and the Thief that stole the Moonmaid.

2) The hinge is indeed open. The religion of the Ironborn now applies to the north, which is underwater. The Nights Watch are all Drowned Men and subject to the Drowned God whose followers can be resuscitated by the goddess of the wind.

3) The wind, therefore is a separate magical entity.

...I am waiting with baited breath for next week's episode, looking for more validation!

[Black Crow]

We shall see, but as I said earlier in a slightly different context the mummers version is a stripped down and simplified version, eschewing all subtlety - as it has to for an audience - so introducing something not in the books and as subtle as you propose really doesn't convince.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

2 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Still not convinced. Its a bit of a jolly story and while Ned may not have been the boasting type to crow over victories, the jest is a different matter and something to entertain the wolf cubs.

Hm. Not sure I understand what you mean. Are you saying that if Ned had been the KotLT, then he should have told the story to his kids because it's entertaining? 

I'd guess Ned was the KotLT, and Lyanna talked him into it. Lyanna's involvement would weigh the story down a bit. Make it less "jolly," and less likely to be retold at Winterfell - particularly if the episode played some part in precipitating later events.

Overall, I think Ned is the most sensible candidate for the KotLT. But regardless - it's a well-constructed, nicely ambiguous little mystery. And clearly it can be argued various ways.

[Black Crow]

Just as an aside, I remain interested by the fact [!] that while much is said and expected of ancient prophecies and magic from Asshai, the language of choice for those using magicks, such as Moqorro doing strange and interesting things to Victarion's arm and a certain priestess working on someone else, appears to be High Valyrian rather than whatever it is they speak way out east.