Football: Hotspur's Fox Hunt

[MisterOJ]

6 hours ago, baxus said:

Maybe someone like, I don't know, Benteke?

Honestly, with Sturridge, Benteke, Origi and Ings (maybe not in that particular order), and with offensive qualities of Coutinho and Firmino, I think Liverpool is rather well off on the striker position.

On the other hand, defense desperately needs an upgrade, including the keeper.

I figured Benteke was sure to be sold this summer. Coutino and Firmino are fine offensive players, but they're not strikers. I just assume Sturridge will be out for long stretches and I don't see Origi and Ings as the best long-term options for those times.

As for defense, they've got a good center back coming in. Between Matip, Lovren, Sakho, Kolo and Skrtle; I think that's fine. Moreno does need to be replaced; and a new keeper would be great.

[Nas!]

Just stay away from Aaron Cresswell, please.  

[Rorshach]

I'd offer you Bryan Oviedo. Take him! 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

On 4.5.2016 at 9:23 AM, baxus said:

Yes, but Liverpool and Arsenal haven't been playing in the league with ONLY Barcelona and (in two seasons only) Atletico as their rivals for the title during that period.

You may like Simeone and Atletico or not, but they did get the result over Guardiola and Bayern. There are no artistic impression bonus points in football. If you want that, go watch figure skating. There's no bonus goals for every 10% possession over 50% or for every 5-10 attempts at goal or things like that. Having 70% possession, 30+ shots on goal and not advancing speaks more about the quality of those shots and possession than about Atletico's display.

While I don't like Simeone and Atletico and think they will ruin the final match against either of their possible rivals, I like how they keep knocking out teams that are "better" than they are.

two part response.

1. Back-to-back(-to-back?) EL winners Sevilla might want to object there. Mocking Real for not winning the league in 8 years, when they "only had Barcelona as competition" (which is not really true imho) is still a bit misguided. Let's do a little thought experiment. Let's switch places for Real Madrid with either Arsenal or Liverpool (or any other given non EPL winners for the past 8 years), and now how many times would have Arsenal or Liverpool in those 8 years la liga ahead of Barcelona, and how many times would have Real Madrid won the EPL? My guess is: Madrid would have won the EPL more often than Arsenal or Liverpool la liga.

2. Yes, it is succesful. But I can still dislike (on an aesthetic level) Atletico/Chelsea style of football. That you can also play differently as an underdog with a somewhat inferior squad can be seen at Liverpool this season. LFC have by no means a superior footballing squad to Villareal or Dortmund (or arguably United). But you can't accuse them of parking the bus. You can accuse them of being doping cheats (regards to Sakho)  but you can't accuse them of parking the bus. And I can also find Simeone's antics annoying.

That's a part that bothers me somehow. On the one hand people despise Mourinho but praise Simeone.

Having that said, judging from the semi-finals Atletico will be favorites to lift the cup this time. Real - City was again totally underwhelming. Ok, maybe City did not really demand more than 40% from Real and they can step it up in the final. But I would not hold my breath for a great final.

[polishgenius]

You can't really compare Liverpool and Arsenal not winning the league to Madrid not doing so, since as rich as the former two are, Madrid are both better off than them directly (I guess that might change with the new TV deal maybe?) and higher up the scale of rich clubs in their league.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Now, that's a bit moving goal posts. Since the whole point is, that Barcelona simply have a beasty team, that would have won any given league more often that not during that relatively arbitary 8 year span. And that there are at least 4 decent teams. Barca, Real, Atletico Madrid, Sevilla. And has the EPL really been that much more competitive during those 8 years? I mean the top four had been more or less settled: Arsenal, Chelsea, City, United. Those teams in some more or less random order have been the CL teams in the EPL for how long? 

Then place City or United in la liga for Real. And let Real have a go at the EPL. And I thought the Arsenal narrative was: The money is there Arsene just does not want to spend it. 

[polishgenius]

27 minutes ago, Notone said:

 Arsenal, Chelsea, City, United. Those teams in some more or less random order have been the CL teams in the EPL for how long?

There has never been a time when those four teams have had all four CL spots for two seasons in a row, and seven teams who would be considered to have mounted a feasible title challenge in the eight seasons mentioned (six if you don't count Arsenal), four of whom have won it.

As for moving the other thing- you're the one who brought up Liverpool and Arsenal as a response to Leicester winning the league as often as Madrid recently. It's not moving the goalposts to point out that this was never a valid comparison in the first place. The richest, second-biggest club in the league, in a league where the clubs below the top two have far, far less resources to compete with, not managing to string together a few wins is not the same as the fourth and fifth richest clubs in a league where the next competition is far closer behind not managing to do so.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

So this is about cash winning titles?

Yes, Real or Barcelona are spending huge amounts of cash (more than they probably could or should, with their financial record). That would be big news.

I mean it's really not like the rich clubs dominate their domestic leagues in England, Germany, the Netherlands, France or Scotland or any other given country. With the odd season, when some other clubs breaks in. Financial power means buying better/best players. Anyway, back to the competitive top four discussion.

 

1		FC Chelsea		38		26	9	3		73:32	41		87
2		Manchester City		38		24	7	7		83:38	45		79
3		FC Arsenal		38		22	9	7		71:36	35		75
4		Manchester United		38		20	10	8		62:37	25		70

1		Manchester City		38		27	5	6		102:37	65		86
2		FC Liverpool		38		26	6	6		101:50	51		84
3		FC Chelsea		38		25	7	6		71:27	44		82
4		FC Arsenal		38		24	7	7		68:41	27		79

1		Manchester United		38		28	5	5		86:43	43		89
2		Manchester City		38		23	9	6		66:34	32		78
3		FC Chelsea		38		22	9	7		75:39	36		75
4		FC Arsenal		38		21	10	7		72:37	35		73

1		Manchester City		38		28	5	5		93:29	64		89
2		Manchester United		38		28	5	5		89:33	56		89
3		FC Arsenal		38		21	7	10		74:49	25		70
4		Tottenham Hotspur		38		20	9	9		66:41	25		69

1		Manchester United		38		23	11	4		78:37	41		80
2		FC Chelsea		38		21	8	9		69:33	36		71
3		Manchester City		38		21	8	9		60:33	27		71
4		FC Arsenal		38		19	11	8		72:43	29		68

1		FC Chelsea		38		27	5	6		103:32	71		86
2		Manchester United		38		27	4	7		86:28	58		85
3		FC Arsenal		38		23	6	9		83:41	42		75
4		Tottenham Hotspur		38		21	7	10		67:41	26		70

1		Manchester United		38		28	6	4		68:24	44		90
2		FC Liverpool		38		25	11	2		77:27	50		86
3		FC Chelsea		38		25	8	5		68:24	44		83
4		FC Arsenal		38		20	12	6		68:37	31		72

1		Manchester United (M)		38		27	6	5		80:22	58		87
2		FC Chelsea (P)		38		25	10	3		65:26	39		85
3		FC Arsenal		38		24	11	3		74:31	43		83
4		FC Liverpool		38		21	13	4		67:28	39		76

 

The first two seasons (lower two) marked the end of the old top four with Liverpool instead of City. Since in '08 Zayed bought City and pumped cash in that club. But you really can't find any season in which not three of the four clubs I picked finished top 4. Granted there are a few odd seasons in which either Liverpool or Tottenham managed to break in, just to drop out again. Let's check la liga.

1		FC Barcelona		38		30	4	4		110:21	89		94
2		Real Madrid		38		30	2	6		118:38	80		92
3		Atletico Madrid		38		23	9	6		67:29	38		78
4		FC Valencia		38		22	11	5		70:32	38		77

1		Atletico Madrid		38		28	6	4		77:26	51		90
2		FC Barcelona		38		27	6	5		100:33	67		87
3		Real Madrid		38		27	6	5		104:38	66		87
4		Athletic Bilbao		38		20	10	8		66:39	27		70

1		FC Barcelona		38		32	4	2		115:40	75		100
2		Real Madrid		38		26	7	5		103:42	61		85
3		Atletico Madrid		38		23	7	8		65:31	34		76
4		Real Sociedad San Sebastian		38		18	12	8		70:49	21		66

1		Real Madrid		38		32	4	2		121:32	89		100
2		FC Barcelona		38		28	7	3		114:29	85		91
3		FC Valencia		38		17	10	11		59:44	15		61
4		FC Malaga		38		17	7	14		54:53	1		58

1		FC Barcelona		38		30	6	2		95:21	74		96
2		Real Madrid		38		29	5	4		102:33	69		92
3		FC Valencia		38		21	8	9		64:44	20		71
4		FC Villarreal		38		18	8	12		54:44	10		62

1		FC Barcelona		38		31	6	1		98:24	74		99
2		Real Madrid		38		31	3	4		102:35	67		96
3		FC Valencia		38		21	8	9		59:40	19		71
4		FC Sevilla		38		19	6	13		65:49	16		63

1		FC Barcelona		38		27	6	5		105:35	70		87
2		Real Madrid		38		25	3	10		83:52	31		78
3		FC Sevilla		38		21	7	10		54:39	15		70
4		Atletico Madrid		38		20	7	11		80:57	23		67

1		Real Madrid		38		27	4	7		84:36	48		85
2		FC Villarreal		38		24	5	9		63:40	23		77
3		FC Barcelona		38		19	10	9		76:43	33		67
4		Atletico Madrid		38		19	7	12		66:47	19		64

 

Fun fact. Both leagues have seen 3 different champions during that 8 year period. 

United, Chelsea, City and Real, Barca and Atletico. Yes, Barcelona have been the most succesful silverware collector. But that's more them simply being the best team of that bunch. As can be seen by their fairly impressive CL title collection. But apart from the two beasts (Real and Barcelona) the compeition over who gets to play CL alongside them has been a bit more diverse than in the Premier League.

[polishgenius]

So this is about cash winning titles?

Yes, Real or Barcelona are spending huge amounts of cash (more than they probably could or should, with their financial record). That would be big news.

I mean it's really not like the rich clubs dominate their domestic leagues in England, Germany, the Netherlands, France or Scotland or any other given country. With the odd season, when some other clubs breaks in. Financial power means buying better/best players. Anyway, back to the competitive top four discussion.

Are you deliberately backing up my point? Like, the whole reason Madrid look bad when they don't win for ages is because they have and spend the most money. That's why we're taking the piss that Leicester are as successful as them with a team whose entirety cost a third of Gareth Bale.


With that, I do like how you're ignoring this season and Leicester as title winners even though the entire thing started because someone brought up Leicester as title winners. I mean, yes, in theory Madrid could still win the league this year invalidating the point, but even then you've got the same amount of winners. And sure, you do get a bit more variation in the other two  (now one, since Atleti have solidified) CL spots, but you're conveniently ignoring that only one of those teams have ever challenged the big two for the title in that span, whereas, again, seven teams have challenged for the title in the Prem. There's less competiton for Madrid. There just is.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Because Leicester is not competing with Real or Barcelona. And I think Real would have easily won the EPL quite a few times during their draught. Including this season. Arsenal or Liverpool have also spent quite a bit of cash in the past with 0 league titles. And they are literally in the same league as Leicester. I picked Liverpool and Arsenal because they have a similar (Arsenal) or even longer draught (Liverpool).

I thought we were talking about the past 8 seasons?

But the argument Leicester winning means Real sucks at buying titles is still somewhat off.

I am not sure, but I think United spent quite a bit more cash this season than Real, and they are struggling to meet their season goal of finishing top four, behind Leicester btw. And they are also literally in the same league. 

Real has a very beasty squad. But they simply have an even bigger beast in their league, namely Barcelona. La liga is in terms of competition like what the SPL used to be before the fhuns went bust (blessed be the HRMC btw.), just on a way bigger scale. It's tradionally been a two horse race, just that one horse (Barcelona) is running way faster at the moment. And that a third horse is atm also in the running in Spain (Atletico). The EPL on the other hand has for the last decade been something of a four horse race. Ten years ago, one of those horses used to be LFC. They dropped of, and have been replaced with Man City FC. And actually during last 8 years each of those races has seen 3 different winners. This season one race has seen surprise winner with Leicester FC. Thinking about it, four horse race has actually been a bit of a stretch, since one horse (Arsenal) has been more backed for place, than actually winning the race. To stay in that equestrian imagery. Leicester was the mare most people thought was on its way to the glue factory, and they ran the race of their life. So how will that mare do next season? Run to win, finish midfield, or to the glue factory? The safe bet has one of the horses (namely City) winning that race again next year. And again, Barcelona and Madrid are not racing in the EPL.

 

[baxus]

19 hours ago, MisterOJ said:

I figured Benteke was sure to be sold this summer. Coutino and Firmino are fine offensive players, but they're not strikers. I just assume Sturridge will be out for long stretches and I don't see Origi and Ings as the best long-term options for those times.

As for defense, they've got a good center back coming in. Between Matip, Lovren, Sakho, Kolo and Skrtle; I think that's fine. Moreno does need to be replaced; and a new keeper would be great.

Lovren is still rather error-prine, Sakho's suspended until further notice, which could mean he's available by the beginning of season 2016/17, or he could face two-years ban (max doping suspension for a first time offense, pretty unlikely in his case), Kolo is 35, and Skrtel's been struggling for quite a while now. They have conceded almost 50 goals and no one would be that surprised if they reach that number after the remaining 3 matches.

Matip is yet to prove himself in the Premiership and, as highly recommended as he may be, I doubt he's the missing piece in the puzzle to make that defensive line rock solid. Hell, I'm not sure even Vidic and Ferdinand at their peaks could do that.

12 hours ago, Notone said:

two part response.

1. Back-to-back(-to-back?) EL winners Sevilla might want to object there. Mocking Real for not winning the league in 8 years, when they "only had Barcelona as competition" (which is not really true imho) is still a bit misguided. Let's do a little thought experiment. Let's switch places for Real Madrid with either Arsenal or Liverpool (or any other given non EPL winners for the past 8 years), and now how many times would have Arsenal or Liverpool in those 8 years la liga ahead of Barcelona, and how many times would have Real Madrid won the EPL? My guess is: Madrid would have won the EPL more often than Arsenal or Liverpool la liga.

We're comparing apples and oranges here. You operate under the impression that Real would have as much money if they were playing in the Premier League when that's clearly not the case.

• Their TV rights revenue would be significantly lower.
• They would have nowhere near as large a fanbase as they do now, competing for fans with so many teams compared to Barcelona being their only rival.
• They would be hardly pressed to maintain years of reaching CL semi-final when hard-pressed to maintain top 4 status in the League in order to play CL next season. Let's be honest here, Real and Barca are on cruise control in Primera. Primera teams rarely offer anything even close to their best when playing Real and Barca, considering those 12 points lost at the beginning of every season and if they do manage to gain something from those matches then it's a bonus. Compare that to Leicester getting promoted and thrashing Man Utd 5-3 in one of the opening games of the season (this was in 2014/15, NOT this season), or Stoke under Pulis taking points off almost every title CONTENDER (not winner, mind you) for years now.

As far as Europa League is concerned, English teams just don't bother with it. For them, it's tiresome, second-tier competition that doesn't bring in enough money to offset the hassle of playing in all kinds of European football backwaters and adding even more games to a rather tight fixture list.

I'm not saying I agree with their opinion, or that they are smart in doing so, but that's the way it is. Look through this thread and previous football threads and see how often English boarders say things like: "If Europa League is our only shot at Europe, I'd rather we miss out and focus on the league".

In the first season, manager who actually cares about that competition got an English team (and not even a top 4 level English team) to Europa League final.

Hell, Hodgson got FULHAM to the Europa League finals! Fulham! That got relegated a season or two later. Can you imagine Recreativo or Getafe reaching European competition final?

9 hours ago, Notone said:

Because Leicester is not competing with Real or Barcelona.

Real and Barcelona could do with a bit more teams like Leicester as their competition.

Leicester would not just roll over and die in their every match-up but would rather make them work for their goals and points and honours. Hell, neither would teams in struggling to avoid relegation such as Newcastle, Sunderland and Norwich, or any other English team (with the POSSIBLE exception of Aston Villa this season).

[Iskaral Pust]

I think Baxus makes a big point that Spanish teams will continue to have an advantage in Europe because they face so little competition in their league.  You would think that having more qualification spots available would encourage the other teams and improve competition but the gulf looks too big and Valencia doing a Leeds scared a lot of smaller clubs. 

[Iskaral Pust]

On May 5, 2016 at 10:04 PM, Soylent Brown said:

Oh, and well done to Isk for managing to be there. I'd love to hear what his unsuspecting colleague thought of it all!

Sorry I overlooked this one. 

I've tried to understand what impression the whole experience made on him.  It started with two Scousers chatting and joking with us on the train from Manchester.  Craig didn't understand much of what they said but could at least recognize it was a different accent and they were chattier and jokier than Mancunians. Both Liverpool and Manchester feel like small, working class cities.  The pre-game hospitality involved a lot of tourist fans (Danes, Norwegians, Irish, etc) plus a torrent of swearing, smoking and drinking by my brother still celebrating his 30th. 

And then the game was deafening. He didn't understand Justice For The 96, but he thought the atmosphere and passion were incredible.  The spontaneous crowd singing was the biggest difference from America.  And he had the shock of seeing me completely unreserved and passionately part of the crowd.  

[BigFatCoward]

respect to robert huth, he just tweeted 'going the full john terry today'. 

[Philokles]

I agree in general that the strength in depth of La Liga is lower than the Premier League, but they certainly aren't pushovers. Off the top of my head Real Madrid, Atleti, Villarreal, Barcelona, Osasuna, Espanyol, Athletic Club, Valencia, Malaga and Sevilla have all reached the latter stages of European competition in the last decade or so.

Final day of the Championship today. Burnley already up and the winner of Middlesbrough vs Brighton will join them. 1-0 Boro at HT, Brighton not turned up at all.

[Consigliere]

33 minutes ago, Sept Sev said:

I agree in general that the strength in depth of La Liga is lower than the Premier League, but they certainly aren't pushovers. Off the top of my head Real Madrid, Atleti, Villarreal, Barcelona, Osasuna, Espanyol, Athletic Club, Valencia, Malaga and Sevilla have all reached the latter stages of European competition in the last decade or so.

I tend to agree with Baxus: I also get the impression that many teams in La Liga view getting anything against Barca and Real as a bonus. The gulf in resources is so great that, while there are exceptions here and there, Real and Barca can play at 70%-80% and win far more often than not whereas English sides have much less leeway because the playing field is much more level.

There's no arguing that the '2nd tier' Spanish clubs have been far more successful in the EL than their English counterparts but I suspect that the dersion of English clubs towards the EL has alot to do with that. I just wonder whether that mindset will start to change now that the EL offers a route to CL football combined with how competitive the BPL has become and is likely to remain for the foreseeable future.

[polishgenius]

It's absolutely dreadful how much we miss Rashford and Martial when they aren't playing. Really hope these rumours of us splashing out on Griezmann are true, although we could use a true creator too.


Fucking lol. We went 1-0 up against Norwich and LVG switched an attacking sub (Januzaj was warming up) for a defensive one (Schneiderlin). Good grief.

[ljkeane]

Burnley and Middlesbrough back in the Premier League then.

[Mark Antony]

55 minutes ago, Consigliere said:

There's no arguing that the '2nd tier' Spanish clubs have been far more successful in the EL than their English counterparts but I suspect that the dersion of English clubs towards the EL has alot to do with that. I just wonder whether that mindset will start to change now that the EL offers a route to CL football combined with how competitive the BPL has become and is likely to remain for the foreseeable future.

Well thank god Liverpool took it seriously. Even if we don't win the final and get CL there was so many awesome moments in the Europa for us this year. 

[Consigliere]

50 minutes ago, polishgenius said:

It's absolutely dreadful how much we miss Rashford and Martial when they aren't playing. Really hope these rumours of us splashing out on Griezmann are true, although we could use a true creator too.

I hope Martial's injury is a minor one. We really need him for our next game.

I also hope that the Griezmann rumours are true. Tbh though, I suspect that even Griezmann will find it tough going in this United side. Our/LVG's ultra-conservative mindset is what needs to change.