UK Politics MCMXXXIX: Should I stay or should I go now?

[A Horse Named Stranger]

On 26.5.2016 at 3:42 PM, Sir Thursday said:

My impression of the paper was that it was written from the point of view that maximising the ability of the UK government to push its agenda is a good thing (which makes sense given who wrote it). Since TTIP is something the government is for, I can understand why it sort of implies that.

Personally I'm not a fan of the TTIP and I feel like it is less likely to pass in a form I dislike if the EU has more of a say...it's unclear whether the UK being part of the EU increases or decreases the likelihood of some of the more odious elements of it being removed though (and not something the paper gets into in too much detail).

ST

I think that's overly optimistic. If the stock market and business news is somewhat of an indicator how things go, TTIP seems to be pretty close to a done deal (unfortunately). 

Bayer is atm trying to buy Monsanto (arguably the most evil company on this planet). Quite a bit of the Monsanto products are banned in the EU (I mean a lot of the bio engineered food). That take over would only make sense if TTIP becomes a reality, so Bayer can get a big chunk of the US market and use the patents on the EU market. If TTIP does not happen, then Bayer can (and probably will) have a hard time to make that take over profitable. 

[Werthead]

9 hours ago, The Killer Snark said:

I'm voting Leave. My father is voting Leave. Even my ex brother in law is voting Leave, and he's a Communist. The TTIP deal is going to devastate national industry throughout Europe, Merkel is both a sociopath and obviously insane, and people throughout the most Islamicised regions of Europe are being persecuted on a daily basis without protection from the police. She is the worst German chancellor since Hitler, and I truly believe it is morally criminal to refuse the opportunity of showing other countries in Europe they have a chance to throw down the shackles and tear the tyrant down. I am trying to convince my mother to vote Leave to counteract the masses of votes from indoctrinated students and gated community Guardianistas, but I fear I will have no luck in the matter, even though, as an anti-Thatcherite, she must realise the global corporatist and free industry suppressing calamity impending via the TTIP.

Erm.

The UK government is one of the most eager and enthusiastic supporters of TTIP at every single level. It is lobbying hard to get TTIP passed in the EU. When Germany and France objected to the TTIP "corporate court" clause that caused such great outrage, the UK government demanded that the clause be retained in full.

Unless TTIP is shot down altogether, it will form the basis of any future trade agreement between the UK and USA as well. The USA has already said, very clearly, that Britain will not get any kind of special treatment in the future, and that it may have to accept the same trade deal that the EU gets with America.

Voting Leave as a way of avoiding TTIP is a bit like trying to avoid a head-on vehicle collision by accelerating and taking your seatbelt off just for good measure.

[Chaircat Meow]

24 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Erm.

The UK government is one of the most eager and enthusiastic supporters of TTIP at every single level. It is lobbying hard to get TTIP passed in the EU. When Germany and France objected to the TTIP "corporate court" clause that caused such great outrage, the UK government demanded that the clause be retained in full.

Unless TTIP is shot down altogether, it will form the basis of any future trade agreement between the UK and USA as well. The USA has already said, very clearly, that Britain will not get any kind of special treatment in the future, and that it may have to accept the same trade deal that the EU gets with America.

Voting Leave as a way of avoiding TTIP is a bit like trying to avoid a head-on vehicle collision by accelerating and taking your seatbelt off just for good measure.

Wrong. The UK will be at the back of the queue if we leave the EU. Like, we will have no trade at all. Will we even have an economy? Anyway, loads of time to stop TTIP according to our great ally, Barack Obama, because once we leave the EU we will just be a tiny, insignificant, small island and waiting for a trade deal will be like waiting for Godot.

 

Do not deviate from the script!!!

[Pebble thats Stubby]

12 hours ago, Werthead said:

Erm.

The UK government is one of the most eager and enthusiastic supporters of TTIP at every single level. It is lobbying hard to get TTIP passed in the EU. When Germany and France objected to the TTIP "corporate court" clause that caused such great outrage, the UK government demanded that the clause be retained in full.

Unless TTIP is shot down altogether, it will form the basis of any future trade agreement between the UK and USA as well. The USA has already said, very clearly, that Britain will not get any kind of special treatment in the future, and that it may have to accept the same trade deal that the EU gets with America.

Voting Leave as a way of avoiding TTIP is a bit like trying to avoid a head-on vehicle collision by accelerating and taking your seatbelt off just for good measure.

Well it could work in a way.   I mean if we have to accept the same deal as the EU with no say in the EU deal.   And at the moment we are the ones pushing the corporate court clause,  If we left, then the rest of the EU might be more likely to be able to drop that clause. Thus the deal we are force to accept may be better than if we stayed in the EU and at the TTIP negotiation table.

Let me be clear I don't advise voting to leave to avoid any part of TTIP, but it just might work,  I might even win the lottery tonight.

 

Chaircat,  of course we will be at the back of the queue if we leave.  we will be a tiny country, deals with us are not going to take priority.    If we want a trade deal faster, we will have to accept the terms of a trade deal already in place by another trading partner of the US without room to negotiate beyond walking away.   Thus being forced to accept the same deal as the EU accepts.... or waiting many many years to even start talks.

[The Marquis de Leech]

10 minutes ago, Pebbles said:

Chaircat,  of course we will be at the back of the queue if we leave.  we will be a tiny country, deals with us are not going to take priority.   

Speaking as the inhabitant of a genuinely tiny country that got dumped when Britain joined the EEC in the first place, having to work your way around trade barriers and other countries' agricultural subsidies is tough but perfectly do-able. It's just a matter of efficiency.

I mean, imagine the fun we had - losing our major trading partner in the middle of the oil shocks. But we came out the other side.

[Chaircat Meow]

32 minutes ago, Pebbles said:

Chaircat,  of course we will be at the back of the queue if we leave.  we will be a tiny country, deals with us are not going to take priority.    If we want a trade deal faster, we will have to accept the terms of a trade deal already in place by another trading partner of the US without room to negotiate beyond walking away.   Thus being forced to accept the same deal as the EU accepts.... or waiting many many years to even start talks.

You can't claim simultaneously that Brexit will bring on TTIP more quickly than remaining, and that the UK will go to the back of the queue for trade deals if we leave. If you are peddling remain scare stories you do need to be consistent.

 

[Pebble thats Stubby]

45 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

You can't claim simultaneously that Brexit will bring on TTIP more quickly than remaining, and that the UK will go to the back of the queue for trade deals if we leave. If you are peddling remain scare stories you do need to be consistent.

 

I never said we will get it faster by leaving.

Only once we have left, if we want a trade deal with the US we will either have to accept whatever the EU and US decide as their deal, without any input from us  (note that trade deal is not done yet so we will still have to wait a bit).   or wait a long long time until after all the other trade deals the US is currently negotiating and planning on negotiating have finished, before its our turn to start talks.

 

These are not scare remain scare stories.  If we leave we have 3 options.

1.  Say fuck it we don't need or want a trade deal with the US.

2. Want a trade deal quickly - accept whatever terms the EU/US deal when its finally signed.  - Even then the US may not agree.

3. Wait our turn and live without a trade deal while we wait.

 

 

 

option 2   gets us a trade deal a little after the EU/US deal is signed.     Option 3   will be years later.

 

I do not even know which of the three options I prefer if we remain.   I suspect we will try option 1 then accept option 2.

[Chaircat Meow]

10 minutes ago, Pebbles said:

I never said we will get it faster by leaving.

Only once we have left, if we want a trade deal with the US we will either have to accept whatever the EU and US decide as their deal, without any input from us  (note that trade deal is not done yet so we will still have to wait a bit).   or wait a long long time until after all the other trade deals the US is currently negotiating and planning on negotiating have finished, before its our turn to start talks.

 

These are not scare remain scare stories.  If we leave we have 3 options.

1.  Say fuck it we don't need or want a trade deal with the US.

2. Want a trade deal quickly - accept whatever terms the EU/US deal when its finally signed.  - Even then the US may not agree.

3. Wait our turn and live without a trade deal while we wait.

 

 

 

option 2   gets us a trade deal a little after the EU/US deal is signed.     Option 3   will be years later.

 

I do not even know which of the three options I prefer if we remain.   I suspect we will try option 1 then accept option 2.

Werthead did.

edit: I was highlighting inconsistency, and I don't really care about the trade deal argument one way or the other. But this website, and others, show that the US does enter into FTAs with more than one country at once, most of them much smaller than the UK.

https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements

[Pebble thats Stubby]

6 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Werthead did.

You quoted me.

 

And I'm rather sure Wert did not say anything about the speed we would get a trade deal with the US.

13 hours ago, Werthead said:

Erm.

The UK government is one of the most eager and enthusiastic supporters of TTIP at every single level. It is lobbying hard to get TTIP passed in the EU. When Germany and France objected to the TTIP "corporate court" clause that caused such great outrage, the UK government demanded that the clause be retained in full.

Unless TTIP is shot down altogether, it will form the basis of any future trade agreement between the UK and USA as well. The USA has already said, very clearly, that Britain will not get any kind of special treatment in the future, and that it may have to accept the same trade deal that the EU gets with America.

Voting Leave as a way of avoiding TTIP is a bit like trying to avoid a head-on vehicle collision by accelerating and taking your seatbelt off just for good measure.

 

[Chaircat Meow]

1 minute ago, Pebbles said:

You quoted me.

 

And I'm rather sure Wert did not say anything about the speed we would get a trade deal with the US.

 

 

14 hours ago, Werthead said:

Erm.

The UK government is one of the most eager and enthusiastic supporters of TTIP at every single level. It is lobbying hard to get TTIP passed in the EU. When Germany and France objected to the TTIP "corporate court" clause that caused such great outrage, the UK government demanded that the clause be retained in full.

Unless TTIP is shot down altogether, it will form the basis of any future trade agreement between the UK and USA as well. The USA has already said, very clearly, that Britain will not get any kind of special treatment in the future, and that it may have to accept the same trade deal that the EU gets with America.

Voting Leave as a way of avoiding TTIP is a bit like trying to avoid a head-on vehicle collision by accelerating and taking your seatbelt off just for good measure.

Bolded it for you.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

Well I don't want to speak for Wert, but I think he's not talking about the speed it will happen, just that he thinks TTIP is inevitable no matter if we remain or leave.

 

however I will let Wert explain his analogy since we have both interpreted it a very different way.

[Chaircat Meow]

3 minutes ago, Pebbles said:

Well I don't want to speak for Wert, but I think he's not talking about the speed it will happen, just that he thinks TTIP is inevitable no matter if we remain or leave.

 

however I will let Wert explain his analogy since we have both interpreted it a very different way.

In any case, according to remain the UK will have to wait a very long time to get a trade deal with the US because there is a queue, you see.

If this is true voting leave will obviously stop TTIP in the UK in the medium term.

[Werthead]

Quote

You can't claim simultaneously that Brexit will bring on TTIP more quickly than remaining, and that the UK will go to the back of the queue for trade deals if we leave. If you are peddling remain scare stories you do need to be consistent.

If we leave the EU, several possibilites emerge with respect to TTIP:

1: TTIP is passed during the (approximate) 2-5 years process it takes to uncouple ourselves from the EU. Given the apparent imminence of the deal, this is the most likely outcome. TTIP becomes law with utter disregard for Brexit or not and we have to live with it afterwards.

2: Somehow TTIP is delayed past the point at which we exit the EU before it is then passed by the EU. The United States extends to Britain the same deal that the EU has gotten: in return for a trade deal now with the US, rather than resetting negotiations to zero and it taking years to make a new one, we accept the deal immediately. TTIP becomes law with utter disregard for Brexit or not and we have to live with it.

3: TTIP is still not law when Britain exits the EU and is delayed further by the massive and growing protests in the EU. However, the USA offers Britain an immediate trade deal on the basis of TTIP, perhaps selling it on the suggestion of getting an economic leg up on the rest of Europe. With the Tories in power, we accept the deal with alacrity and - guess what! - TTIP becomes law with utter disregard for Brexit or not and we have to live with it.

Whether we negotiate a new deal with America or not, whether they put us at the front of the queue or at the back of the queue, There seems to be little to no chance of avoiding TTIP unless the popular protests in Europe and the political arguments that have been raging in places like Germany and France over it cause delays or concessions from the Americans.

TTIP is a horseshit deal, there is no question of that, but the suggestion that by leaving the EU we will avoid TTIP is nothing less than delusional. We will get it regardless, we might even get it faster, and we might even get it with clauses that the EU later reverses or negotiates its way out of. The desperation of the Leave camp to start making trade deals the second we leave the EU regardless of the terms, in order to prove their righteousness, makes both this and the Nightmare Scenario for Brexiters (that we leave the EU only to have to accept most of the same terms as remaining in as the price for a trade deal, or face insurmountable economic handicaps) more likely.

The favoured outcome by the Leave camp and the one that they are trying hard to extoll - that we leave the EU and negotiate amazeballs free trade deals with the United States and Europe that stop the worst excesses of TTIP, keep free movement outlawed and maintain free access to the European market and even gain access to the American - is simply never going to happen.

[Chaircat Meow]

12 minutes ago, Werthead said:

If we leave the EU, several possibilites emerge with respect to TTIP:

1: TTIP is passed during the (approximate) 2-5 years process it takes to uncouple ourselves from the EU. Given the apparent imminence of the deal, this is the most likely outcome. TTIP becomes law with utter disregard for Brexit or not and we have to live with it afterwards.

2: Somehow TTIP is delayed past the point at which we exit the EU before it is then passed by the EU. The United States extends to Britain the same deal that the EU has gotten: in return for a trade deal now with the US, rather than resetting negotiations to zero and it taking years to make a new one, we accept the deal immediately. TTIP becomes law with utter disregard for Brexit or not and we have to live with it.

3: TTIP is still not law when Britain exits the EU and is delayed further by the massive and growing protests in the EU. However, the USA offers Britain an immediate trade deal on the basis of TTIP, perhaps selling it on the suggestion of getting an economic leg up on the rest of Europe. With the Tories in power, we accept the deal with alacrity and - guess what! - TTIP becomes law with utter disregard for Brexit or not and we have to live with it.

Whether we negotiate a new deal with America or not, whether they put us at the front of the queue or at the back of the queue, There seems to be little to no chance of avoiding TTIP unless the popular protests in Europe and the political arguments that have been raging in places like Germany and France over it cause delays or concessions from the Americans.

TTIP is a horseshit deal, there is no question of that, but the suggestion that by leaving the EU we will avoid TTIP is nothing less than delusional. We will get it regardless, we might even get it faster, and we might even get it with clauses that the EU later reverses or negotiates its way out of. The desperation of the Leave camp to start making trade deals the second we leave the EU regardless of the terms, in order to prove their righteousness, makes both this and the Nightmare Scenario for Brexiters (that we leave the EU only to have to accept most of the same terms as remaining in as the price for a trade deal, or face insurmountable economic handicaps) more likely.

The favoured outcome by the Leave camp and the one that they are trying hard to extoll - that we leave the EU and negotiate amazeballs free trade deals with the United States and Europe that stop the worst excesses of TTIP, keep free movement outlawed and maintain free access to the European market and even gain access to the American - is simply never going to happen.

So Obama, Cameron and the remainians were telling lies when they said the UK would go to the back of the queue and would have to wait for a deal with the USA. The USA would instead offer the UK an immediate free trade deal!

I'm glad we've cleared that up.

PS If we reject TTIP we will be permanently poorer because TTIP is projected, by reputable sources, to add £100 billion pounds to the European economy.

[Werthead]

5 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

So Obama, Cameron and the remainians were telling lies when they said the UK would go to the back of the queue and would have to wait for a deal with the USA. The USA would instead offer the UK an immediate free trade deal!

For a new trade deal after Brexit, yes. Any deal that is made with the EU before we leave, we will have to lap up and accept, and our kind Tory government has already made it clear that they are willing to accept a deal at almost any cost, and a greater cost than the rest of the EU.

Quote

PS If we reject TTIP we will be permanently poorer because TTIP is projected, by reputable sources, to add £100 billion pounds to the European economy.

If we accept TTIP, we will be permanently poorer because we will be allowing American corporations unacceptable power and influence over European markets, politics and institutions, and giving them the right to sue anyone who objects.

The fact that those in favour of Brexit, who like to pretend sovereignty is an issue, seem willing to cede our sovereignty to Washington rather than Brussles is interesting.

[Chaircat Meow]

6 hours ago, Werthead said:

For a new trade deal after Brexit, yes. Any deal that is made with the EU before we leave, we will have to lap up and accept, and our kind Tory government has already made it clear that they are willing to accept a deal at almost any cost, and a greater cost than the rest of the EU.

If we accept TTIP, we will be permanently poorer because we will be allowing American corporations unacceptable power and influence over European markets, politics and institutions, and giving them the right to sue anyone who objects.

The fact that those in favour of Brexit, who like to pretend sovereignty is an issue, seem willing to cede our sovereignty to Washington rather than Brussles is interesting.

Any deal in the present climate with the USA is likely to look a bit like TTIP.

TTIP, like the single market, will see harmonization and liberalization and should boost the economy for the same reasons as the single market allegedly does. If you are not put off by the prospect of losing the money that will come from TTIP it is hard to see why you are so fussed about the Treasury report.

I don't think much of many people in the Brexit campaign, and I'm not bothered about a FTA with the USA myself.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

1 hour ago, Chaircat Meow said:

So Obama, Cameron and the remainians were telling lies when they said the UK would go to the back of the queue and would have to wait for a deal with the USA. The USA would instead offer the UK an immediate free trade deal!

I'm glad we've cleared that up.

PS If we reject TTIP we will be permanently poorer because TTIP is projected, by reputable sources, to add £100 billion pounds to the European economy.

*sigh*

From all I have read (admittedly a good while ago, and I no longer can cite the sources), the actual positive effect of TTIP is not that huge. The growth of the GDP within the EU was projected to be something around 0.5% (in other words .005) - after 12 years. So if you break it down, the annual growth of the European GDP thanks to TTIP would be 0.041% (.00041). Impressive. AFAIK to lower the uneployment rate, an annual growth of 2.5% (.025) is needed. And most of those studies are conducted from the pro TTIP side, so those tend to be the more optimistic scenarios. 

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Given that the UK isn't part of the monetary union how much trouble would the "Brexit" create for the EU?

[A wilding]

6 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

TTIP, like the single market, will see harmonization and liberalization and should boost the economy for the same reasons as the single market allegedly does. If you are not put off by the prospect of losing the money that will come from TTIP it is hard to see why you are so fussed about the Treasury report.

 

TTIP will ensure that the profits of large corporations are protected, by making it difficult to impossible for any future government to do anything that will inconvenience them or impact their bottom line. It is doubtful that this will improve the economy of the UK. The implications of the loss of sovereignty mean that it is unlikely in the extreme that it will actually benefit anyone outside the 1%. (Forget keeping the NHS in anything like its present form for a start.)

After all, if it will be so beneficial to us all, why exactly have they been so desperate to keep the whole thing as secret as possible and to try to get it through under the radar?

 

[The Marquis de Leech]

The TTIP (like the TTPA) isn't about free trade, and any benefits people cite are really them pulling figures out of their posterior. These deals are really much more about intellectual property, and (rather more sinisterly) about locking in a particular economic model. Much the same can be said about the EU, of course (not just the Euro, though that more than anything has revealed what the European experiment has truly become). The idea that sovereign elected governments cannot nationalise railways is downright disgusting.

(Which I suppose makes me annoyingly consistent, as far as the sovereignty question goes).