Jump to content

UK Politics MCMXXXIX: Should I stay or should I go now?


Hereward

Recommended Posts

45 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

That would not be a good result.

It depends what side you're on. It's probably the perfect result to trigger civil war in the Tory Party, something I wholeheartedly support. 

I reckon it'll be 51-52% in favour of Remain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Werthead said:

Some of the shifting to Leave may be an impact of The Sun's declaration for Leave, but that's usually a case of the paper following the opinion of its readers rather than vice versa. The Times has gone for Remain. The Times is read by a lot less people, but they are overwhelmingly more likely to vote.

We seem to be exactly at 50-50. So the question is how much vitiriol will be expended (by either side) if we vote for either outcome, but not by 1 or 2% but by 0.1 or 0.2%? That would make a demand for another referendum within a decade very hard to resist. If it's for Remain it might give the government additional firepower to get more concessions from Brussels though.

Hum, strange. I had expected the Australian mummy to back one side with all his octogenerian weight. Afterall this referendum has quite some political significance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

According to Mike Smithson there is now going to be a poll out everyday until Thursday.

Anyone know if there is anything to be done for those of us who get opinion poll addiction during elections/referendums? I've got it real bad this time, worse even than during the Scottishref, which is a bit odd because I was more invested in the result there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

 which is a bit odd because I was more invested in the result there.


In fairness, the polls are more interesting this time. There was never a moment when Leave polled in the lead that time, was there? Not so much of a back-and-forth battle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm going to predict 54% Remain.

4 minutes ago, DjourouLoveMe? said:


In fairness, the polls are more interesting this time. There was never a moment when Leave polled in the lead that time, was there? Not so much of a back-and-forth battle.

There were two or three polls which showed a lead for independence a week or two out from the vote, which got a lot of attention, although by the time of the referendum the polls had moved back in the other direction.

It depends what side you're on. It's probably the perfect result to trigger civil war in the Tory Party, something I wholeheartedly support. 

It feels a bit like the civil war has started already, I can't see how they're going to all be able to back round the cabinet table and pretend nothing has happened regardless of the poll result.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, DjourouLoveMe? said:


In fairness, the polls are more interesting this time. There was never a moment when Leave polled in the lead that time, was there? Not so much of a back-and-forth battle.

Not consistently no. There were two polls which showed Indy in the lead by a whisker (but one with a very small sample size) and another two or so which only showed tiny BT leads. But yes, nothing like this ...

So, if we go from polls where fieldwork was begun on 9 June, and use only BPC polls, Leave have 9 leads, and Remain have 4.  For the roughly equivalent period in ScottishIndy you had two polls giving Yes Scotland a lead (and one looked like a clear outlier anyway) and 9 for BT, usually larger than Remain have now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some of the Sunday papers are backing the opposite side to their respective dailies. In particular, the Sunday Times supports Leave, while the Mail on Sunday backs Remain.

The Observer also backs Remain while the Sunday Telegraph goes for Leave, but I believe those both match their dailies' position, so not as surprising as the other two.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Part of me wants a 55% Remain just so I can watch politicians who instantly labeled that a definitive win that would end the debate for generations in the Indyref campaign, struggle to find a way to say that 55% isn't a big win at all, really, when you think about it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 18/06/2016 at 7:11 AM, ants said:

I not only think it's ok, I think the other parties are doing the right thing. There can NEVER be any suspicion of a party gaining from an event like this. Otherwise you create the possibility of someone assassinating someone in the future - especially if parliament is evenly split. It might suck a little for the constituents, but it is better for democracy 

Well those of us who felt that the seat should be contested have got our wishes... thus showing you have to be careful what you wish for. :wacko:

Ex-BNP member announces he will contest the seat

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, Emre Mor-mont said:

Part of me wants a 55% Remain just so I can watch politicians who instantly labeled that a definitive win that would end the debate for generations in the Indyref campaign, struggle to find a way to say that 55% isn't a big win at all, really, when you think about it.

It could have been a big win, but it turned out not to be, because the 45% all swung behind one party.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On ‎6‎/‎19‎/‎2016 at 11:35 AM, Chaircat Meow said:

Anyone want to play call the referendum so you can look stupid after polling day?

My prediction: 52/48 Remain. Looking at the polls, and taking into account a status quo swing I feel that might be on the low side for Remain, but I also think the stay side in this case is much weaker than BT was in Scotland, so I struggle to see them getting near the 55.3% we saw in Scotland.

I tend to agree that about 52/48% Remain is probable.

One snippet though is that Mike Smithson says more postal votes have been returned than at the last general election.  That's good news for Leave, as postal voters tend to be elderly, but also points to a high turnout overall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SeanF said:

I tend to agree that about 52/48% Remain is probable.

One snippet though is that Mike Smithson says more postal votes have been returned than at the last general election.  That's good news for Leave, as postal voters tend to be elderly, but also points to a high turnout overall.

High turnout is not necessarily bad for Leave though, it depends which areas and groups turn out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Postal votes aren't opened and counted until the polls close and all the counting starts. So they'll know how many postal votes have been received, but nothing concrete about the contents of said votes - everything above is just assumptions based on the known demographics of what kind of people generally use postal votes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I honestly think we might be screwed. The Far Left in league with the Bilderbergs via the BBC, the lying media, and crooked Cameron have done all they can to make propagandist political profit out of the 'Jo Cox death', which was of course utterly predictable, and a massive amount of UK voters I reckon will have fallen for it because most people in Britain are frankly stupid, and ruled by blind emotionalism over rationale. At any rate, we've all expected Davey and his corporate fascist cronies to try and rig the vote. The media in Britain have at times admitted they are downplaying the difference between the leading Leave vote and the Remain one, in order to either encourage late swayable voters or in my opinion to make it more believable when/if the vote gets rigged. I really think our only option is to hope that Sweden, Poland or Hungary cracks before too long in order to start the necessary domino effect. The EU has to be disbanded, but I no longer think it can be done by us. We have been royally stitched up by their recent dirty tricks, and not enough people in the Uk are smart enough to realise something extremely fishy has taken place.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My impression is the opposite really. I'm surprised by how badly Cameron and co lost control of the referendum, and how many leading Tories went to Leave. Newspaper coverage is also pretty favourable to Leave.

I think we might have a better idea tonight whether there is a swing back to Remain. I'm a bit suspicious of the swing yougov claim to be picking up because their 12-13 poll looks a bit weird to me; it only gave Remain a 5 point lead in London, so no surprise things have swung back a bit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, The Killer Snark said:

I honestly think we might be screwed. The Far Left in league with the Bilderbergs via the BBC, the lying media, and crooked Cameron have done all they can to make propagandist political profit out of the 'Jo Cox death', which was of course utterly predictable, and a massive amount of UK voters I reckon will have fallen for it because most people in Britain are frankly stupid, and ruled by blind emotionalism over rationale. At any rate, we've all expected Davey and his corporate fascist cronies to try and rig the vote. The media in Britain have at times admitted they are downplaying the difference between the leading Leave vote and the Remain one, in order to either encourage late swayable voters or in my opinion to make it more believable when/if the vote gets rigged. I really think our only option is to hope that Sweden, Poland or Hungary cracks before too long in order to start the necessary domino effect. The EU has to be disbanded, but I no longer think it can be done by us. We have been royally stitched out by their recent dirty tricks, and not enough people here are smart enough to realise something extremely fishy has taken place.

7 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Shouldn't that post be in the entertainment forum?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...