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How do some people honestly think Ramsay wrote the pink letter?


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33 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

 Stannis has no intent whatsoever to incite the NW brothers against Jon. He just wants the world to believe that he's dead, and his retinue be sent to him,

Why wouldn't a straight-forward letter from someone in Stannis' retinue, or even a "In the event you are reading this it means I am dead" letter from Stannis sent by a trusted party, suffice for this purpose?  Or a totally banal, seemingly irrelevant coded letter that doesn't make accusations against Jon that could undermine his authority or even inspire the readers to mutiny?  I know you answered this before by saying that a seemingly totally irrelevant code would strike an interceptor as suspicious, but so what?   They wouldn't have any idea how to break the code (if they even thought it involved a code at all, that is), nor would something totally random like that inspire anyone to distrust Jon or see him as an aggressor or anything like that.

 

ETA:  wait, why would Stannis want his whole retinue to meet him at WF in the first place?   He took the Nightfort as his seat, so they already have a castle (when rehab is done), and there's that huge snowstorm he's been engulfed in, so why would he want his heir endangered by leaving the safety of the Wall there?  I can maybe see an argument to get Mel to him, but why not just arrange for her to join him?

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Why would he send a straight forward letter? So every tom dick and harry could possibly read it? He is aware of Janos and other spies who spie for the lannisters. Again I suggest not thinking at the purpose and the outcome, and just look at the most basic things people have posted about the contents of it, the speech mannerisms, the certain character vocabulary traits etc

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13 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

The premisse is that Stannis is pretending to be dead for strategic purposes. He's not pretending to be dead to win allies. He's pretending to be dead in order to deceive Roose, Crown and any of the allies that stand with Roose and Cersei. If his enemies believe he's dead, his enemies will party and become complacent and think they're safe. It's a Trojan Horse trick. This is how you can mavouver troops and attack unawares, without the enemy expecting or preparing for an attack.

If an ally of Stannis claims to write Stannis is dead, please send his family to safety to the Nightfort for example you've got 2 major problems:

  1. It's rather suspicious and questionable, and it might give someone the idea that Stannis is faking his death.
  2. It makes Jon a continued supporter of Stannis, though Stannis is dead and thus a traitor to "not meddling".

If someone like a Bolton claims to have beaten and killed Stannis in a battle there is no reason to doubt him. An enemy won't pretend Stannis being dead in order to defeat Stannis. Nor is it weird that the victor demands Stannis's family to be given up as hostages. (Although it can be argumented that the Boltons are just trying to get their hands on Stannis's family, and therefore lie that he's dead.)

confuse roose by making him think Ramsey is calming stannis died? could roose not just ask him? would not hearing about this and knowing it is not true make him more defensive? again an ally of stannis telling people like roose and etc... that stannis is dead is more convincing because it is against his own interest.

You would think that an ally of stannis wants to convince the rest of the northern lords who don't like the boltons that stannis is going to win. Spreading the word of his death makes it more likely that they don't support him. that s why it is more convining. 

Also what telling him to send his family to safety? winterfell s not safe 

A lot of people will doubt without proof just on roose's word. The northern lords will think it is a trick because he doesn't want them to turn on him. the family part is not weird but it does do anything to prove the first.

I think ramsay wrote the letter and he thinks he killed stannis cause someone gave him stannis's sword. doesn't mean stannis is dead. stannis whole pov foreshadow that he is going to trick them.

also again when did stannis find out about mance?

 

 

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I am very interested in Mance's fate after Theon's escape. I have assumed, given the grim nature of this series, that the rather likeable rogue had no hope of escaping, and that he is a prisoner. But if he indeed managed to disappear, well, that makes things very interesting.

The glamor is something which intrigues me. We don't actually know whether he retained his glamor when he left the Wall. In fact, I am almost certain that the glamor was tied rather strongly to the Lord of Bones's headgear and assorted clothing. So I am fairly sure that Mance was himself when posing as Able the Bard.

But if the glamor is transferrable - and if Mellisandre gave him instructions on how to transfer someone else's appearance onto himself, then he could indeed be hiding amongst the crowd in Winterfell at the moment. And doing nefarious things there for his own ends.

Then again, I can't see this letter being written without Ramsay's input, so while it certainly contains information that Mance had to have had a hand in, it could not have been Mance on his own either. There is too much of Ramsay in the letter for that.

In the end, this whole thing remains very intriguing. The only certainty is that it definitely was not Stannis who wrote it in some kind of out-of-character attempt at bluffing, double bluffing and secret code antics. That's just silly.

EDIT

To be clear, I agree that Stannis was planning some subterfuge in the spoiler chapter from Winds, but that subterfuge is likely to be limited to him faking his own death, and maybe even using his famous sword as the evidence of his death, to fool his enemies.

(I'm not referring to the tactical battle subterfuge relating to luring the Freys onto the ice lake now. That too is likely to have happened. But I am referring instead to the extent of his subterfuge beyond the battle itself).

So Ramsay is telling the truth in the letter, so far as he knows it. Which is that he believes Stannis is dead. Whether that is the actual truth, is a different matter. Hence Jon's comment that there is "some truth" in the letter.

 

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@sweetsunray

Most of your reasoning up there in the long post makes not much sense.

First, there is no textual evidence that Stannis wants to capture the Dreadfort to gain access to winter provisions. He wants to capture it because it is the Bolton castle and he wants to win an (easy) victory to show that he is not done yet. He thinks more Northmen will declare for him after he has shown that he is not done yet.

Jon Snow convinces him to change his mind both on using the wildlings as soldiers as well as targeting the Dreadfort. He convinces him to take Deepwood Motte instead. The idea that the clansmen received a raven inviting them to Barrowton makes little sense, by the way, considering we have no reason to believe the clansmen have castles or maesters.

Roose Bolton had no intention to actually face Stannis in an open battle. He intended to lure him to the Dreadfort, trap him there, and have the Karstarks and the Umbers (and perhaps a force under his own command) take care of him.

He only changes his plans after Stannis showed up at Deepwood Motte and was beginning to gather a pretty big army around him. It is then that he decides to move to Winterfell for the wedding because he realized the stakes had been raised and he could not allow Stannis to march to Winterfell first.

It is clear that Stannis and Roose both tried to be at Winterfell first. Roose won that race and he is not trapped in Winterfell, he is still in a very comfortable and defensible position.

Stannis still has to take Winterfell or die.

The idea of coded messages and all makes no sense at all in light of the fact that nothing hints at the fact that Stannis might be using code. He wrote a letter to Jon Snow about his success at Deepwood Motte. Why would he write his next letter from the POV of Ramsay Bolton instead himself?

That makes no sense from whatever angle you look at it. The idea that Stannis cares about the petty politics at the Wall to such a degree that he would think his own letters wouldn't be handed to the Lord Commander makes no sense. He already wrote a letter to Jon, so he thinks his letters get through to him.

And if Stannis has won a victory and is not dead he has any reason that the news of his victory will not motivate the NW to consider any plots against him. In fact, if there is a thing which finally convinced Bowen Marsh and his cabal to murder Jon Snow it would be the news about Stannis' death (either revealed to them in the hall or because Clydas had opened and resealed the letter). That would make sure that they would not have to fear any retaliation for King Stannis for murdering their Lord Commander who had been Stannis' friend and ally.

As to the whole Theon stuff:

Ramsay had had his fun with Theon for months. One assumes that he interrogated him thoroughly about the Stark family throughout this time, and that all those bastard insults were crafted by Ramsay to get to Jon. After all, Theon believed Jon Snow had severe issues with being a bastard, and even if Ramsay didn't had Theon as a source one would assume that he who was born as a bastard, too, would think that Jon had pretty much the same issues as he did.

You don't have to be especially smart to think you can insult a noble bastard by calling him bastard.

The idea that Stannis would want to take the Dreadfort now is such a cheesy repetitive also makes no sense. Why not? Because Stannis knows that Roose wanted to trap him at the Dreadfort. That means that the Dreadfort must still have a garrison strong enough to prevent any stupid attempt to take the castle the Theon way. That could only work back then because Ser Rodrik took literally every man with him to defend Torrhen's Square. But Roose would never make such a mistake - and neither would Ramsay acting as Roose's lieutenant because, you know, Ramsay knows how Theon has taken Winterfell and he also knew when he left the Dreadfort that his father intended to trap Stannis at the Dreadfort. That plan would never have worked had Roose not taken steps to prevent that Stannis could actually gain access to the castle.

The idea that Stannis would not execute all the Karstarks he has just sentenced to death makes no sense to me, either. The man usually doesn't revoke death sentences, and considering that he only privately sentenced them to death there is no reason to assume he wanted to fool anyone with that (like he did with Mance). The Karstark men most likely will have to fight and die in the coming battle.

In addition, a lot of your speculation is based on problematic assumptions. For one, the idea that the Pink Letter was actually written after Theon 1. I know George's disclaimer said the chapter takes place prior to the last Jon chapter of TWoW but that may have been part of his attempt to keep Stannis' ultimate fate mystery. After all, Stannis could still die the way the Pink Letter said in that scenario, and if he had said Theon 1 took place after the last Jon chapter then he would have confirmed that the letter's information about Stannis was false.

In addition, your speculation is based on the idea that Roose himself is going to participate in any fighting at the lake. We don't know that Ramsay is going to lead a Bolton army to the village. That's what Theon assumes - but Theon's assumptions aren't facts. We don't know what Roose does, or what he will believe in the wake of whatever transpires at the village.

I'm inclined to believe Roose dictated or helped Ramsay to write the Pink Letter just as he was the guy behind the wording of the original Ramsay letters to Asha and Jon (who were all sent to them after Roose had been reunited with his son). Roose is using his son as a means of intimidation in those letters, and he might continue to do so in the Pink Letter.

The idea that Roose would leave Winterfell to run to the Dreadfort if he thought it was under attack makes no sense, either. Roose controls Winterfell, the heart of the North, whereas Stannis has nothing right now. If he is dead, then his cause will die with him whatever some people might try to accomplish.

And one really has to wonder whether a man like Roose would ever be convinced by something that is not Stannis Baratheon's dead body that the man is dead. I don't think so. If Ramsay (or whoever tells him the story of Stannis' death) cannot show him the corpse he is not going to buy it. Especially not if a Manderly or any other man he cannot really trust was in involved in that.

If we go back to the raven stuff we see that Luwin's ravens are still there and Roose is able to receive messages at Winterfell. Presumably the maester he had brought with him either were able to make use of the ravens that had returned to the rookery, or they had also brought ravens with them. One would also assume that maesters mark ravens to be able to tell them apart. They have to know which ravens flies to which castle and which raven can go to more than one castle, etc.

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13 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

@sweetsunray

Most of your reasoning up there in the long post makes not much sense.

First, there is no textual evidence that Stannis wants to capture the Dreadfort to gain access to winter provisions. He wants to capture it because it is the Bolton castle and he wants to win an (easy) victory to show that he is not done yet. He thinks more Northmen will declare for him after he has shown that he is not done yet.

Jon Snow convinces him to change his mind both on using the wildlings as soldiers as well as targeting the Dreadfort. He convinces him to take Deepwood Motte instead. The idea that the clansmen received a raven inviting them to Barrowton makes little sense, by the way, considering we have no reason to believe the clansmen have castles or maesters.

Roose Bolton had no intention to actually face Roose in an open battle. He intended him to lure him to the Dreadfort, trap him there, and have the Karstarks and the Umbers (and perhaps a force under his own command) take care of him.

He only changes his plans after Stannis showed up at Deepwood Motte and was beginning to gather a pretty big army around him. It is then that he decides to move to Winterfell for the wedding because he realized the stakes had been raised and he could not allow Stannis to march to Winterfell first.

It is clear that Stannis and Roose both tried to be at Winterfell first. Roose won that race and he is not trapped in Winterfell, he is still in a very comfortable and defensible position.

Stannis still has to take Winterfell or die.

The idea of coded messages and all makes no sense at all in light of the fact that nothing hints at the fact that Stannis might be using code. He wrote a letter to Jon Snow about his success at Deepwood Motte. Why would he write his next letter from the POV of Ramsay Bolton instead himself?

That makes no sense from whatever angle you look at it. The idea that Stannis cares about the petty politics at the Wall to such a degree that he would think his own letters wouldn't be handed to the Lord Commander makes no sense. He already wrote a letter to Jon, so he thinks his letters get through to him.

And if Stannis has won a victory and is not dead he has any reason that the news of his victory will not motivate the NW to consider any plots against him. In fact, if there is a thing which finally convinced Bowen Marsh and his cabal to murder Jon Snow it would be the news about Stannis' death (either revealed to them in the hall or because Clydas had opened and resealed the letter). That would make sure that they would not have to fear any retaliation for King Stannis for murdering their Lord Commander who had been Stannis' friend and ally.

As to the whole Theon stuff:

Ramsay had had his fun with Theon for months. One assumes that he interrogated him thoroughly about the Stark family throughout this time, and that all those bastard insults were crafted by Ramsay to get to Jon. After all, Theon believed Jon Snow had severe issues with being a bastard, and even if Ramsay didn't had Theon as a source one would assume that he who was born as a bastard, too, would think that Jon had pretty much the same issues as he did.

You don't have to be especially smart to think you can insult a noble bastard by calling him bastard.

The idea that Stannis would want to take the Dreadfort now is such a cheesy repetitive also makes no sense. Why not? Because Stannis knows that Roose wanted to trap him at the Dreadfort. That means that the Dreadfort must still have a garrison strong enough to prevent any stupid attempt to take the castle the Theon way. That could only work back then because Ser Rodrik took literally every man with him to defend Torrhen's Square. But Roose would never make such a mistake - and neither would Ramsay acting as Roose's lieutenant because, you know, Ramsay knows how Theon has taken Winterfell and he also knew when he left the Dreadfort that his father intended to trap Stannis at the Dreadfort. That plan would never have worked had Roose not taken steps to prevent that Stannis could actually gain access to the castle.

The idea that Stannis would not execute all the Karstarks he has just sentenced to death makes no sense to me, either. The man usually doesn't revoke death sentences, and considering that he only privately sentenced them to death there is no reason to assume he wanted to fool anyone with that (like he did with Mance). The Karstark men most likely will have to fight and die in the coming battle.

In addition, a lot of your speculation is based on problematic assumptions. For one, the idea that the Pink Letter was actually written after Theon 1. I know George's disclaimer said the chapter takes place prior to the last Jon chapter of TWoW but that may have been part of his attempt to keep Stannis' ultimate fate mystery. After all, Stannis could still die the way the Pink Letter said in that scenario, and if he had said Theon 1 took place after the last Jon chapter then he would have confirmed that the letter's information about Stannis was false.

In addition, your speculation is based on the idea that Roose himself is going to participate in any fighting at the lake. We don't know that Ramsay is going to lead a Bolton army to the village. That's what Theon assumes - but Theon's assumptions aren't facts. We don't know what Roose does, or what he will believe in the wake of whatever transpires at the village.

I'm inclined to believe Roose dictated or helped Ramsay to write the Pink Letter just as he was the guy behind the wording of the original Ramsay letters to Asha and Jon (who were all sent to them after Roose had been reunited with his son). Roose is using his son as a means of intimidation in those letters, and he might continue to do so in the Pink Letter.

The idea that Roose would leave Winterfell to run to the Dreadfort if he thought it was under attack makes no sense, either. Roose controls Winterfell, the heart of the North, whereas Stannis has nothing right now. If he is dead, then his cause will die with him whatever some people might try to accomplish.

And one really has to wonder whether a man like Roose would ever be convinced by something that is not Stannis Baratheon's dead body that the man is dead. I don't think so. If Ramsay (or whoever tells him the story of Stannis' death) cannot show him the corpse he is not going to buy it. Especially not if a Manderly or any other man he cannot really trust was in involved in that.

If we go back to the raven stuff we see that Luwin's ravens are still there and Roose is able to receive messages at Winterfell. Presumably the maester he had brought with him either were able to make use of the ravens that had returned to the rookery, or they had also brought ravens with them. One would also assume that maesters mark ravens to be able to tell them apart. They have to know which ravens flies to which castle and which raven can go to more than one castle, etc.

Agree with most of that. Except I wasn't too clear which side of the timeline you fall on. I think it is obvious that the letter is written AFTER the Theon I chapter in Winds. In fact, I think it is pretty obvious that the letter is written after the actual battle that took place at the Lake.

I don't agree that the entire letter is a fabrication, and that it was written without any battle having yet occurred (if that is a scenario you are entertaining as potentially possible).

I think the most logical scenario is that the letter is based mostly on what Ramsay believes to be true, linked with some inputs from Mance (given under circumstances unknown at this stage). It is further influenced by Ramsay's desperation after losing "Arya", who was his primary hold on the Northern lords' allegiance.

I also pick up a hint from the tone in the letter that Ramsay might be cut loose from Roose in some way. Whether that is because Mance assassinated Roose in the chaos following Theon's escape, or whether  Roose has departed from Winterfell, or whether Ramsay is perhaps not present at Winterfell when writing the letter. We can only speculate.

But the letter seems too crude for Roose to have had input in it. Also, if Mance is manipulating the situation in some way, that would be a much easier task without the far smarter Roose being present to guide Ramsay's hand. If Ramsay is in a situation where he has lost the 1500 Freys in the lake, he has lost his Stark bride, and he has somehow lost the guidance of Roose, then an offer from Mance to bring the wildlings to his side would perhaps find some fertile ground in his increasingly desperate state of mind.

 

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20 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

 

Roose Bolton had no intention to actually face Roose in an open battle. He intended him to lure him to the Dreadfort, trap him there, and have the Karstarks and the Umbers (and perhaps a force under his own command) take care of him.

How dare you call Roose a coward. Roose was more than willing to face Roose in battle.

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25 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Agree with most of that. Except I wasn't too clear which side of the timeline you fall on. I think it is obvious that the letter is written AFTER the Theon I chapter in Winds. In fact, I think it is pretty obvious that the letter is written after the actual battle that took place at the Lake.

I don't agree that the entire letter is a fabrication, and that it was written without any battle having yet occurred (if that is a scenario you are entertaining as potentially possible).

I think the most logical scenario is that the letter is based mostly on what Ramsay believes to be true, linked with some inputs from Mance (given under circumstances unknown at this stage). It is further influenced by Ramsay's desperation after losing "Arya", who was his primary hold on the Northern lords' allegiance.

I also pick up a hint from the tone in the letter that Ramsay might be cut loose from Roose in some way. Whether that is because Mance assassinated Roose in the chaos following Theon's escape, or whether  Roose has departed from Winterfell, or whether Ramsay is perhaps not present at Winterfell when writing the letter. We can only speculate.

But the letter seems too crude for Roose to have had input in it. Also, if Mance is manipulating the situation in some way, that would be a much easier task without the far smarter Roose being present to guide Ramsay's hand. If Ramsay is in a situation where he has lost the 1500 Freys in the lake, he has lost his Stark bride, and he has somehow lost the guidance of Roose, then an offer from Mance to bring the wildlings to his side would perhaps find some fertile ground in his increasingly desperate state of mind.

I think it could be that the letter was written after some sort of battle at the lake. Or not. It isn't clear. The only thing we can say for sure that it was written after Theon escaped with Jeyne, and that the Boltons captured Mance and/or some of his women.

Everything else could just be lies.

And I think there is pretty good reason why Roose/Ramsay would write such a letter immediately after (that is, before a Bolton force follows the Freys and Manderlys to the village) they found out who was behind the 'Arya' rescue mission.

The loss of Jeyne is a severe blow to their cause. One they would want to rectify as soon as possible, and the demand of Mel, Selyse, and Shireen clearly shows that they want to acquire additional hostages against Stannis, too.

Now, I'm not sure they would write such a letter after the battle at the village if we assume that battle didn't end in a decisive victory for the Boltons. If Roose and Ramsay are going to lose a lot of men there (the entire Frey host along with the defecting Manderlys and a good deal of Northmen and Bolton command) then writing letters to Jon Snow might no longer be on top of their list. But in the very moment they realize that Jon Snow and Melisandre were behind this whole rescue I clearly could see Roose/Ramsay writing a letter as vile and insulting as the Pink Letter actually is.

And if the Boltons are fooled in believing that Stannis is dead they would actually have little to no reason to write a letter at all. After all, that would mean they could march against the Wall without announcing that they would be coming, right? As things stand we can safely assume that Stannis' death would mean Bolton victory. After all, it would also entail that the Boltons won the battle, that not enough Northmen were willing to betray Roose or acted to late.

The idea that Roose somehow died off screen and Ramsay is in charge when the Pink Letter was written makes little sense to me. Roose Bolton is a major antagonist of this series and one would expect he is going to die in a POV chapter.

The Boltons being angry and pissed is enough to explain the way the letter is phrased, and we should also keep in mind that Roose allowed/commanded Ramsay to write intimidating letters to their enemies before. So Jon receiving a letter written by Ramsay is nothing new at all.

The bottom line is that I don't think we have enough material to speculate on the basis of the letter alone, nor can we reasonably deduce anything about the outcome of the battle. We can be reasonably sure that Stannis is not going to be crushed in the coming battle, but any speculation on what's going to happen thereafter completely hinges on how exactly that battle goes, and what happens in-between.

One should assume that Ramsay/the Boltons would have killed or recaptured Theon or know that Theon and 'Arya' were not together had they taken any captives at the lake if the battle if the battle had already transpired at the time the letter was written. And we know that Theon is not going to accompany Justin Massey and Jeyne to the Wall.

The idea that Ramsay actually has Stannis' 'magic sword' really sounds ridiculous to me. Stannis would never give his Lightbringer away, nor is there any reason to believe that Ramsay (or Roose) would actually be convinced that Stannis is dead if they have his sword instead of his corpse.

In fact, I'd not be surprised at all if Ramsay actually died in the coming battle (assuming Roose grants him command - Theon claiming Ramsay is going to come is completely based on his fear of the man, not on any actual knowledge he has). After all, he is no experienced commander and stupid/reckless enough to make even worse mistakes than Hosteen Frey. And if the Freys end up killing themselves in the lake then the Manderlys could actually help butcher the Bolton troops rather than the Freys.

And in light of Theon slowly reclaiming his old identity it wouldn't surprise me one bit if he and Ramsay chanced upon each other in the battle and if Ramsay was either killed by Theon or taken captive by him (and thus once again reversed the nature of their relationship).

Stannis' best move would actually be to not allow any Bolton ally/man return from the lake to Winterfell. That way uncertainty and paranoia within the castle could do his job for him. And his control over Maester Tybald should enable him to write more messages of misdirection - saying doing something as easy and obvious as sneaking up to Winterfell with his combined forces, hiding in the snow like the Umbers did, and then sending a raven with a message written and signed by a captive Ramsay or Maester Tybald to sent a relief to the village. Once the castle gates open they will attack and storm Winterfell.

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29 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Now, I'm not sure they would write such a letter after the battle at the village if we assume that battle didn't end in a decisive victory for the Boltons. If Roose and Ramsay are going to lose a lot of men there (the entire Frey host along with the defecting Manderlys and a good deal of Northmen and Bolton command) then writing letters to Jon Snow might no longer be on top of their list. But in the very moment they realize that Jon Snow and Melisandre were behind this whole rescue I clearly could see Roose/Ramsay writing a letter as vile and insulting as the Pink Letter actually is.

And if the Boltons are fooled in believing that Stannis is dead they would actually have little to no reason to write a letter at all. After all, that would mean they could march against the Wall without announcing that they would be coming, right? As things stand we can safely assume that Stannis' death would mean Bolton victory. After all, it would also entail that the Boltons won the battle, that not enough Northmen were willing to betray Roose or acted to late.

But what if getting Jon taken out of the game without having to march to the Wall is exactly what they're trying to accomplish with the letter?  Meddlesome Jon, son of the Ned, in a fairly powerful position as LC would be another threat to the Boltons regardless of the outcome with Stannis.   The explicit threat of Bolton invasion increases the pressure on the Watch to put a check on their deceitful, intervening LC, ramping up the likelihood that the men at the Wall will disarm this potential threat to Bolton power without the Boltons having to do anything more than writing a simple letter.

So idk if the fact it announces they will march on the Wall points to anything about the outcome of that battle necessarily.

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Given the fact that it just shows up in the books with all of the bastards traits it could easily be taken  as such. It's called a plot twist how many people thought Davos was dead when a FFC came out and didn't get another book for years. It's just what the books are good at

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6 minutes ago, butterbumps! said:

But what if getting Jon taken out of the game without having to march to the Wall is exactly what they're trying to accomplish with the letter?  Meddlesome Jon, son of the Ned, in a fairly powerful position as LC would be another threat to the Boltons regardless of the outcome with Stannis.   The explicit threat of Bolton invasion increases the pressure on the Watch to put a check on their deceitful, intervening LC, ramping up the likelihood that the men at the Wall will disarm this potential threat to Bolton power without the Boltons having to do anything more than writing a simple letter.

So idk if the fact it announces they will march on the Wall points to anything about the outcome of that battle necessarily.

Could be, of course. But giving them a warning that they would be coming could by and far easily result in Melisandre, Selyse, Shireen, and even Jon Snow going into exile.

And I don't think Jon on his own is considered to be a real threat by the Boltons. At least not while he didn't let the wildlings through the Wall (which they don't know yet). The NW is too weak to be a real threat, and Jon Snow cannot possibly leave the NW and expect to be expected as a rival claimant to Winterfell by a majority of the North. You do not leave the NW, after all.

And considering that the letter was addressed to Jon it would be up to hint to share the contents with anyone at the Wall. Jon could have burned the letter without disclosing the contents to anyone, greatly reducing the probability that it would have affected Jon's position at the Wall. If I was Roose/Ramsay and would want to see Jon Snow deposed I'd either write letters addressed to Marsh, Yarwyck, Mallister, and Pyke, etc., and not the Lord Commander. Or I'd sent messengers or come with my army and give the entire NW an ultimatum: Hand over the bastard/his corpse or die with him.

In general, there is also a pretty big hint that the Boltons didn't consider Jon Snow a top priority on their enemy list - at least not until the Arya rescue. And if that was what triggered the Pink Letter then it could easily have been written before any battle against Stannis was actually fought.

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I guess I could have been clearer that I wasn't disagreeing with or challenging you, but rather, adding more support to your thesis that one cannot figure out the battle outcome or timeline necessarily by what's written in the letter.

25 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Could be, of course. But giving them a warning that they would be coming could by and far easily result in Melisandre, Selyse, Shireen, and even Jon Snow going into exile.

Which also serves the function of getting Jon out of the game in the short term, if not permanently.  

25 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And I don't think Jon on his own is considered to be a real threat by the Boltons. At least not while he didn't let the wildlings through the Wall (which they don't know yet). The NW is too weak to be a real threat, and Jon Snow cannot possibly leave the NW and expect to be expected as a rival claimant to Winterfell by a majority of the North. You do not leave the NW, after all.

And considering that the letter was addressed to Jon it would be up to hint to share the contents with anyone at the Wall. Jon could have burned the letter without disclosing the contents to anyone, greatly reducing the probability that it would have affected Jon's position at the Wall. If I was Roose/Ramsay and would want to see Jon Snow deposed I'd either write letters addressed to Marsh, Yarwyck, Mallister, and Pyke, etc., and not the Lord Commander. Or I'd sent messengers or come with my army and give the entire NW an ultimatum: Hand over the bastard/his corpse or die with him.

In general, there is also a pretty big hint that the Boltons didn't consider Jon Snow a top priority on their enemy list - at least not until the Arya rescue. And if that was what triggered the Pink Letter then it could easily have been written before any battle against Stannis was actually fought.

Of course prior to the Arya mission Jon wouldn't have been high on his priority list-- he has to cull the enemies he's enveloped himself with first.   

Whether the Arya mission happened or not, it's definitely in the Boltons best interest to remove Jon since he's a very clear, public figure that could become a rallying point against the Boltons (people like Alys have already begun to appeal to him almost like a king).  But the fact that the Arya mission did happen sends the Boltons the message that Jon isn't content with "taking no part" as a Watchman, and that his interest is pro-Stark/ antiBolton.  The need him taken out sooner than later.

The letter was crafted in such a way that begged to be opened by those in charge of ravens (men who would be anxiously awaiting news of battle that could render the Watch extremely vulnerable), something Roose would certainly think to orchestrate and exploit.  It doesn't seem to me that Jon was the sole intended audience for that letter.

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22 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Could be, of course. But giving them a warning that they would be coming could by and far easily result in Melisandre, Selyse, Shireen, and even Jon Snow going into exile.

And I don't think Jon on his own is considered to be a real threat by the Boltons. At least not while he didn't let the wildlings through the Wall (which they don't know yet). The NW is too weak to be a real threat, and Jon Snow cannot possibly leave the NW and expect to be expected as a rival claimant to Winterfell by a majority of the North. You do not leave the NW, after all.

And considering that the letter was addressed to Jon it would be up to hint to share the contents with anyone at the Wall. Jon could have burned the letter without disclosing the contents to anyone, greatly reducing the probability that it would have affected Jon's position at the Wall. If I was Roose/Ramsay and would want to see Jon Snow deposed I'd either write letters addressed to Marsh, Yarwyck, Mallister, and Pyke, etc., and not the Lord Commander. Or I'd sent messengers or come with my army and give the entire NW an ultimatum: Hand over the bastard/his corpse or die with him.

In general, there is also a pretty big hint that the Boltons didn't consider Jon Snow a top priority on their enemy list - at least not until the Arya rescue. And if that was what triggered the Pink Letter then it could easily have been written before any battle against Stannis was actually fought.

Believing Stannis dead does not end the war for the Boltons.

They may have discovered that Stannis sent Massey to gather 20k sellswords for Shirreen, hence their desire to have Shirreen and Selyse delivered to them. And just because they believe Stannis to be dead, does not mean that they are in a position of particular strength after the battle.

If they lost 1500 Freys, a significant part of Ramsay's own force, as well as the Manderlys and Karstarks, and had to then withdraw from the Battle of Ice outnumbered by the Mountain Clansmen, then they would be sitting back in Winterfell with maybe a third of their forces lost, and without Arya Stark to ensure the loyalty of the remaining Northern lords.

Roose was already fearful before the Battle. If the Battle was a particularly costly one, with only Stannis's supposed death as a positive, the situation gets worse for them. Stannis was never their primary concern. He commands at best 1500 southron troops. Their primary concern was ensuring the loyalty of the Northern lords, who have far more men than Stannis.

So they likely don't have the strength or the confidence in their ability to command the Northern lords, to march up to Castle Black. And all the while knowing that 20k sellswords are potentially being rallied to Shirreen's cause.

So the only ploy left to them is to turn the Watch against Jon by revealing his lies about Mance, and have the Watch depose Jon and deliver Shirreen and Selyse as hostages to the Boltons without a fight.

EDIT

Also bear in mind that Jon Snow - Eddard Stark's son - together with Arya Stark - Eddard's trueborn daughter - creates a hell of a combination to draw the loyalty of the Lords of the North away from the already unpopular Boltons. If Jon was so inclined, he could easily create an alternative centre of power in the North, built around "Arya Stark" - which most Northmen would likely consider to be more legitimate than Ramsay Bolton's authority.

 

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea that Ramsay actually has Stannis' 'magic sword' really sounds ridiculous to me. Stannis would never give his Lightbringer away, nor is there any reason to believe that Ramsay (or Roose) would actually be convinced that Stannis is dead if they have his sword instead of his corpse.

I disagree with that. In private he's quite derisive of the sword, so I can see him parting with it if he felt his deception hinged on providing the enemies with proof. If he wins, he gets it back. If he loses, it doesn't matter anyway.

As to the Boltons, the letter itself claims that they have the sword and not the body, so whoever wrote it doesn't seem to find that fact suspicious. Given they didn't question the intel in the first of the Karstark ravens, I imagine if they received another detailing Stannis' defeat, with the sword as a claimed trophy, they would accept it as true.

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4 hours ago, The Drunkard said:

I disagree with that. In private he's quite derisive of the sword, so I can see him parting with it if he felt his deception hinged on providing the enemies with proof. If he wins, he gets it back. If he loses, it doesn't matter anyway.

As to the Boltons, the letter itself claims that they have the sword and not the body, so whoever wrote it doesn't seem to find that fact suspicious. Given they didn't question the intel in the first of the Karstark ravens, I imagine if they received another detailing Stannis' defeat, with the sword as a claimed trophy, they would accept it as true.

I could see Ramsay accepting the sword as proof and Roose not buying it.  It has definitely been set up for there to be tension between the two.  Roose tells Arya all the way back in clash or storm that Ramsay would kill him.  However Karskarks appearance was described very similarly to Stannis's, so his head may very well be sent back with the sword.

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3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Most of your reasoning up there in the long post makes not much sense.

Well  first you say it doesn't make "sense" and then you go on about "textual evidence"

Here's "sense", based on logic and textual history about the situation in the North:

  1. It's Winter. There's nobody harvesting anything anymore. It's survive on whatever you have ammassed with harvest in the fall.
  2. Robb took about half of the harvesting capacity South at the time people needed to prep for Winter. This is pointed out in the text a few times.
  3. Boltons send no one to the Harvest Fest at WF that Bran presided. Others did send someone and brought tribute harvest to WF, but it still needed to be more. Hence, Boltons never gave any part of their regional harvest away. Instead, Ramsay claimed Hornwood lands, so did Manderly. So, who has the biggest harvest stock in the North? Boltons have.
  4. WF was sacked - no stock whatsoever.
  5. Boltons majority of people have been living of Hoat's harvesting around Gods Eye, and the Twins.
  6. The Wall barely has any harvest: since most people abandoned the Gift and the New Gift because of wildling raids. Jon worries all the time how he'll be able to feed his men and the wildlings that Stannis let through and he lets through. What they get from hunting is not much either, with rangers not returning. Jon gets a loan from the Iron Bank, but you can't eat paper, and it will require time before food arrives at the Wall, which will have to be sent by boat to Eastwatch or the Shadow Tower, because any carts hoping to bring food overland in winter will arrive empty since the horses or oxes would have eaten it all to get the carts there.              

This is why WF is nothing but a PR stunt and the Dreadfort is the true strategic goal - it completely takes out Boltons AND ensures that Stannis has food enough to winter and surplus, spend his IB money on sellswords and doesn't have to depend on the NW for food. Take it or leave it, Sir Varys.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

t is then that he decides to move to Winterfell for the wedding because he realized the stakes had been raised and he could not allow Stannis to march to Winterfell first.

It is clear that Stannis and Roose both tried to be at Winterfell first. Roose won that race and he is not trapped in Winterfell, he is still in a very comfortable and defensible position.

And you base this assumtion on what? Moat Cailin is taken by the Boltons, Roose returns and introduces Jeyne to Ramsay as fArya. Bolton sends letters to all the leal lords, including House Glover of Deepwood Motte where Asha made her seat to demand the lords to come to Barrowton and pledge their allegiance and celebrate the wedding of his son to Arya.

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Those were done in maester's ink, made of soot and coal tar, but the message above was scrawled in brown in a huge, spiky hand, It spoke of the fall of Moat Cailin, of the triumphant return of the Warden of the North to his domains, or a marriage soon to be made. (aDwD, a Wayward Bride)

Deepwood Motte's maester asks if he can share the tidings with Lady Sybelle.

That same night, Stannis attacks and retakes Deepwood Motte. So, Stannis knows in Deepwood Motte where Boltons are and where the wedding is supposed to be. Then he waits, while forces gather at Deepwood Motte. Somehow Manderly and Boltons know of it - how is not made clear. Roose tells Ramsay of his plans at Barrowton: as follows... Stannis is at Deepwood Motte and ammassing armies. Roose assumes Stannis would be too cautious to march on Barrowton, but Roose thinks he can lure Stannis to Winterfell. So, Roose says the wedding will take place in Winterfell instead. Stannis's letter to Jon confirms that Roose already chose Winterfell as the wedding location. 

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And word has come to us that Roose Bolton moves toward Winterfell with all his power, there to wed his bastard to your half sister.

Jon himself thinks how Robert would take WF swfitfly, race to WF with forced marches, midnight rides to secure WF for himself first. He doubts that Stannis will do so, and believes that to be a mistake. He also thinks that WF, even as a ruin, would give anyone holding it an advantage over the other. But unlike Stannis, Jon does not have the reports of the men of the Winterfell army that survived the massacre of Ramsay when he routed Cassel's forces to retake WF - forces of House Cerwyn and Tallhart who had months to investigate the state WF was in. For some reason, none of these forces ever chose to squat in WF ruin (unlike the few squatters Roose encoutnered there). Here's the necessary link for Stannis to know that WF is not as advantageous as Jon AND Roose assume.

So, what would happen if Stannis got to WF first? He'd starve. Roose doesn't even need to besiege WF to have Stannis starve. There's NO food in WF, only what any army brings with them. Deepwood Motte doesn't have the food to feed Stannis's army and the mountain clans, because Asha and her Ironborn fucked up the harvest, after they had already sent a lot of their men South with Robb.

Quote

"Winter here?" Big Bucket roared. "How much food and fodder do you think Galbart Glover has laid by?"

Anyhow, Roose was already riding for WF when Stannis learned of it. Even in good weather and top-notch marches it would have taken Stannis over 10 days to reach WF through the Wolfswood, while Ned Stark and King Robert picnic and ride the barrows of the Barrowlands 9 days after leaving WF at a crawl pace with Cersei's cartwheel breaking all the time. The race for WF is some imagined fantasy by readers, probably built on the men saying how Robert would reach it first by using forced marches and night rides to stick his tongue out at Roose from the walls of WF. And while Stannis does not halt, and plods on, he never ever presses his army into forced marches, not even before it starts to snow (4th day).

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"Best not mention that to Stannis," suggested Justin Massey, "or he'll have us marching nights as well as days."

But Stannis is not deaf... He hears those comments all the time. And yet he conspuously does not use nigth rides and forced marches. Stannis never meant to race to WF ASAP. There was no use to it anyhow, since Roose had already left for WF, and he'd waist his men's lives and race through the food only to reach a ruin without food stock, and barely any time to raise and repair the battlements. The loss in heavy cavalry was massive (from 800 only 60 survived), so that's 740 horses for food and 740 horses that don't eat the food they have. The text states that any horse that died was immediately butchered for meat. 84 soldiers died on the march to Winterfell. He could have used forced marches if that truly was his aim. The casualties would have been massive (amongst the men). It never stopped commanders from using forced marches even in winter, if it was required for the military goal. Just the fact that Stannis did not use such a marching tactic and cut off anyone else from suggesting it heavily implies that getting to WF before Roose was never his goal. Stannis has experience with being inside a keep for a whole year and starvation in winter in the Stormlands. And that's not even North. 

There's no denying the symbolical importance of Winterfell, but for Stannis it's nothing more than that. Taking WF before Roose doesn't give him food and it doesn't take out the Boltons from any position of power at all. You're just taking Roose's erronous impressions and the rallying cries of the Mountain Clans too much as evidence of Stannis's own mind. It appears as if Stannis reacted to Roose's choice of batteground - Winterfell. But I think it is far more likely that he waited at Deepwood Motte, not making any furhter move at all, for Roose's eye to wander to WF. Sometimes, the best way to provoke someone into making a mistake, is simply by nothing else and just wait. It's exactly the same thing with "uncomfortable silences"... one remains silent on purpose and the other feels pressured into speaking. That's what imo happened regarding WF: Stannis did not make any further move, building pressure onto Roose to make a move of his own, knowing and hoping full well that Roose would isolate himself in the middle of the North with the food he could take along and fix himself into ruinous, empty WF. It's a game of cyvasse. Sure, Roose believed it raised the stakes, but Roose's decisoin was not that smart after all. Roose is a master in riding another house's coattail to enrich his own: sending allied troops out to die to spare his own, eating another's food, using another's castle and ravens. But Roose raced to a ruin where that strategy he has always relied on will undo him. Stannis spared the energy of his men, and he prepared, and waited for Bolton to "blunder" as he says so aptly to Theon.

 

 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea of coded messages and all makes no sense at all in light of the fact that nothing hints at the fact that Stannis might be using code. He wrote a letter to Jon Snow about his success at Deepwood Motte. Why would he write his next letter from the POV of Ramsay Bolton instead himself?

The idea is that Stannis sent one letter declaring his intentions and his successes, exactly because he wanted the content of his letter spread and get back to Boltons. After all, the Karstarks managed to find Stannis. Imo, he wanted Roose's secret allies to believe he took Roose's challenge for WF and to report it to Roose. Imo, he wanted to make Roose complacent and arrogant and impatient, waiting for the arrival of Stannis. Is it a coincidence that Stannis's letter from Deepwood Motte arrives at CB the day that Jon rides with the new recruits to the weirwood grove beyond the wall and says to Bowen, "CBis yours." ? I doubt it, especially since Bowen leads the mutiny later on, and was Slynt's lackey before and Slynt could not have communicated with Cersei without Clydas's help. At the very least, Stannis moved slow and sent his cheerful letter disclosing all of his plans to march on WF to Jon in the hope to lure the traitors out of the woodwork.

As for the last question: why wouldn't Stannis have a letter sent with his seal and name.? I've answered that question 10 times already: because he wants to maintain the lie for Bolton AND Lannister allies at the Wall that Stannis is dead. :bang: Why are you asking and repeating the same question over and over when you have been given the answer to it already over and over.

Why would anyone who wants his enemy to believe he's dead then write a letter in his own hand and name and declare himself to be alive. Is that so hard to understand, that once Stannis wants to play dead, he must make sure that there's no communication that could fall in the wrong hands saying otherwise?

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea that Stannis cares about the petty politics at the Wall to such a degree that he would think his own letters wouldn't be handed to the Lord Commander makes no sense. He already wrote a letter to Jon, so he thinks his letters get through to him.

Strawman! Nobody claimed that Jon wouldn't get the messages sent to him. We claim that Jon's mail is read by spies and that at the very least Stannis suspects it.

Evidence for the spies: Cersei gets 2 letters in aFfC from the Wall: one from Slynt and one from Jon (the paper shield we see him write and send in aDwD). Slynt informs Cersei of Jon Snow calluding with Stannis. Slynt sent a spy letter to Cersei at the time Jon was LC, betraying his LC. Now how the hell did Slyn ever manage to do that, do you think? Slynt wouldn't know which raven goes where. He needs help from someone who handles the ravens. There are 3 people at CB who handle ravens: maester Aemon, Sam and Clydas. Aemon may be blind, but not stupid. He'd never let a brother like Slynt send a message to KL without having assurance from Jon Snow, the LC, that the message was approved. Aemon would have the message given to Jon before he sends it off with a raven. Sam's Jon friend. He's not going to send any of Slynt's messages either. That only leaves Clydas: he is not a maester, he made no maester's vow and therefore is not bound to pass messages only to the LC of CB. Clydas cannot but be the man who smuggled Slynt's letter out by raven to Cersei and the council that we know of in aFfC. Once Aemon and Sam are sent off to Oldtown, Clydas has total free reign to send messages to KL and Cersei's allies, to open and read messages, to receive messages from KL and Cersei's allies meant for conspiritors.

When Jon commands Slynt to take command of the castle he wants to send him it, Slynt initially protests he has important friends. Slynt alludes here to Cersei and the Crown. In the evening it is but a panicked boast. But the next morning Slynt is noticeable very confident and smug. He repeats that he has imoprtant friends, smug, confident and for everyone to hear (including Stannis). What changed to make Slynt so confident that he believed he was untouchable? Either he received a letter from KL given to him by Clydas, or that was the night that he managed to send a letter to KL (the one we see in Cersei discuss in aFfC). A careful observer would have noted that something happened to make Slynt so confident. Stannis knows Slynt from the time he sat at the council. He knows Slynt is Lannister's man, corrupt and greedy for power. Stannis wanted to get rid of Slynt of the Gold Cloaks when he was himself still in KL. Stannis would have noted Slynt's boast and the confidence in which he made it that fateful morning. And yes, taht would make him think. It would make him realize that Clydas was helping Slynt, and not to be trusted, especially since Aemon and Sam were sent off to Oldtown. And that is why Stannis knew before he left CB that he could not trust Clydas and that there were Lannister spies at CB. It is why he gave Jon the nod when Jon beheaded Slynt.

You might claim it's just about petty NW business. But that's not true. Slynt's friends at KL are Stannis's enemies, and thus by extension Slynt's friends at CB are also Stannis's enemies... especially since Jon was not unhelpful to him.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And if Stannis has won a victory and is not dead he has any reason that the news of his victory will not motivate the NW to consider any plots against him

Stannis has only a partial victory at the time of the Pink Letter being sent. That's why he's playing dead. You keep knocking down strawmen or completely ignore half of the situations that were spelled out several times for you and others. There's just no way that Stannis managed a complete victory in 7 days after the Theon chapter of tWoW, for the simple reason that it takes 3 days ride alone to get to WF. And he cannot attack WF openly anyway, let alone with everyone inside, but the Freys and Manderlies. 

 

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea that Stannis would want to take the Dreadfort now is such a cheesy repetitive also makes no sense. Why not? Because Stannis knows that Roose wanted to trap him at the Dreadfort. That means that the Dreadfort must still have a garrison strong enough to prevent any stupid attempt to take the castle the Theon way. That could only work back then because Ser Rodrik took literally every man with him to defend Torrhen's Square. But Roose would never make such a mistake - and neither would Ramsay acting as Roose's lieutenant because, you know, Ramsay knows how Theon has taken Winterfell and he also knew when he left the Dreadfort that his father intended to trap Stannis at the Dreadfort. That plan would never have worked had Roose not taken steps to prevent that Stannis could actually gain access to the castle.

Well, if you ask me why I'm bordering snarky, it's for the first sentence in this quote. I don't care whether you this my arguments are repetitive or the taking of the Dreadfort cheesy or Theon's way stupid.

But oh my. :bang: Remember the battle for Winterfell? You know the one where Theon had 40 men inside the walls of WF and Cassel led an outnumbering force to the walls of WF, and then Ramsay arrived from behind and routed Cassel's forces? Even if there's a skeleton garrison inside a keep, an overpowering force still has to storm the walls and that takes time, especially a time when they are vulnerable in the back How long did it take for King John to take teh castle held by Baron Albany's skeleton forces? Neither the Dreadfort nor WF are holdfasts like the one Ser Amory storms and overtakes easy-peasy in Aray's chapter in aCoK. They are well fortified keeps.Ten people can hold off any force from a keep for logn enough a time for the attacker to be overtaken and routed. That was the intended Karstark plan.

But the Theon way is different. Umber greenboys are 400 men. Dress them up as Karstarks and they get inside the Dreadfort without a hitch. There's no way that Roose or Ramsey left +400 men inside the Dreadfort.

But basically your argument against Stannis taking the Dreadfort is that you think it's cheesy, stupid and repetitive - your personal taste of such a plot.

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

In addition, a lot of your speculation is based on problematic assumptions. For one, the idea that the Pink Letter was actually written after Theon 1. I know George's disclaimer said the chapter takes place prior to the last Jon chapter of TWoW but that may have been part of his attempt to keep Stannis' ultimate fate mystery. After all, Stannis could still die the way the Pink Letter said in that scenario, and if he had said Theon 1 took place after the last Jon chapter then he would have confirmed that the letter's information about Stannis was false.

Wow, this is a very confusing argument. On the one hand you're questioning the assumption that the Pink Letter was sent after tWoW's Theon 1, on the other hand you're arguing that if it was sent after Theon 1 we can still get the confirmation that everything went down as the Pink Letter claims to have gone down. Which is it? Yes, theoretically you can argue that Stannis dies and that Ramsay battled with Stannis for 7 days ( :lmao: ) if you ignore all the other details that point to the letter writer not being Ramsay. There are enough problematic issues with the letter itself and the 7 battle claim to seriously question Ramsay as the author, and the OP pointed them out.

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

In addition, your speculation is based on the idea that Roose himself is going to participate in any fighting at the lake. We don't know that Ramsay is going to lead a Bolton army to the village. That's what Theon assumes - but Theon's assumptions aren't facts. We don't know what Roose does, or what he will believe in the wake of whatever transpires at the village.

You misread something obviously. NO, I did not speculate that Roose himself is fighting at the lake. I don't know where you got that idea from.

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea that Roose would leave Winterfell to run to the Dreadfort if he thought it was under attack makes no sense, either. Roose controls Winterfell, the heart of the North, whereas Stannis has nothing right now. If he is dead, then his cause will die with him whatever some people might try to accomplish.

Sheesh, you're making such flawed arguments based on complete misreadings and forgetting half of what I pointed out before... At the time Roose leaves WF for Dreadfort he beleives Stannis is dead. So, Roose does not believe he's under attack anymore. He believes he won. And then comes the news of Ironborn or Wildlings having taken the Dreadfort. It's a ruse, a deception.

 

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If we go back to the raven stuff we see that Luwin's ravens are still there and Roose is able to receive messages at Winterfell. Presumably the maester he had brought with him either were able to make use of the ravens that had returned to the rookery, or they had also brought ravens with them. One would also assume that maesters mark ravens to be able to tell them apart. They have to know which ravens flies to which castle and which raven can go to more than one castle, etc.

Ravens of WF in the heart tree don't fly anywhere but to WF. That's why they stay in the heart tree. The ravens in the rookery that would have flown elsewhere once released already long flew to their respective homes when the rookery was destroyed. Only way you can get ravens flying to other places is if a person takes several cages of ravens and rides them to that place. For example. If Roose wants ravens to fly to Deepwood Motte and he has no ravens in his rookery anymore flying to Deepwood Motte, then someone from Deepwood Motte puts some of their Deepwood Motte ravens in a cage, gets on a mule or horse and rides those ravens to the Dreadfort (or WF). That's how any castle gets his hands on "sending" ravens.

 

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea that Stannis would not execute all the Karstarks he has just sentenced to death makes no sense to me, either. The man usually doesn't revoke death sentences, and considering that he only privately sentenced them to death there is no reason to assume he wanted to fool anyone with that (like he did with Mance). The Karstark men most likely will have to fight and die in the coming battle.

Stannis holds no ill will to the Karstark men-at-arms. He specifically points out to Horpe he does not believe they know of the betrayal. They're jsut men who know nothing and do as they're told. The mebers of House Karstark themselves that he had arrested is a different matter. Stannis says to them (Arnolf, his son and grandsons) that they're dead men. But the manner of their dying is not yet decided. That also means Stannis allows him leeway when and how they die.

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Not going to keep frustrated so I will leave it at this..............Ramsay 100% did not write it. Few of my friends here know why and whats up.

Anyone on the opposed position should read between the lines of what I just said, and will leave it at that

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If Winterfell is such a hellhole food desert unfit for longterm occupancy, why does Stannis want his family to be brought there in the first place?  Apologies if this was addressed somewhere and I missed it, I just don't quite understand what Stannis' incentive would be to have them brought there, hellhole it is, in the middle of this snowstorm.

 

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@sweetsunray    You are wasting your breath at this point. (even though you are spot on and correct). The aftermath and the reasoning for some of the people is too complex and down the line. In order to get to that they have to know its not from ramsay for starters. Need to just look at the basic contents of the letter, the character traits, characters speech and vocabulary, the letter itself. Even though many people including us both have said it a bunch of times. They have to look at the basic easy things to go any further. And from page 1 and 2, not one person has tried to explain why there are words and phrases NEVER used by Ramsay before, but used a ton by said other characters. As if grrm has a bad memory and does not remember certain character traits as to how much they uses said words, or what they did in past events, like the first letters, what they say how they say it etc

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13 minutes ago, The Truth said:

Not going to keep frustrated so I will leave it at this..............Ramsay 100% did not write it. Few of my friends here know why and whats up.

Anyone on the opposed position should read between the lines of what I just said, and will leave it at that

If you have to extrapolate for pages upon pages to explain something that can perfectly be justified with a simple explanation, I think you're looking into it too deep to see what you want to see.

Occam's Razor exists for a reason, and I think it's perfectly valid to invoke it here.

Ramsay is pissed, sends a letter honestly thinking he defeated Stannis, there, it's explained without deconstructing the vocabulary of the letter while involving several maesters, implying collusion between several characters, and having characters act completely irrationally. 

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