How do some people honestly think Ramsay wrote the pink letter?

[Lord Varys]

@Free Northman Reborn

I think you know my take on the savior thing? I think the core mistake in the interpretations of the whole thing is the search for one savior. There is not one but three - Daenerys, Jon, and Tyrion - and most of the actual prophecy stuff actually referred to Daenerys and is already fulfilled (the waking of dragons from stone heralded by the bleeding star, the place of Dany's birth).

I also don't find the interpretation compelling or convincing that the Song of Ice and Fire refers to a person rather than the actual theme of the entire series. Jon Snow is not the single or main hero of this story.

That said, the downfall of the Starks is nothing special. The theme of the first three books is the destruction of the Seven Kingdoms through civil war. The point of the whole struggle in the first three books is to weaken Westeros for the attack of the Others - or Daenerys - to make things easier for them (and the ensuing later fighting much worse).

The whole series is a huge proclamation that infighting and political intrigue is bad in general - and especially self-destructing in the face of a powerful common enemy.

I did not say that Jon would be Robb 2.0, just a guy who could easily have wanted to unite the Northmen, the wildlings, and the NW against the Others as early as ADwD. That could have worked if he had been the guy who saved the NW from Mance by striking a deal. And he could certainly have included Roose and Ramsay in all that because, you know, there is a common enemy that is threatening them, too. If they knew about that and believed in the threat Roose most likely would have been willing to make a deal.

The Stark children could easily have been kept out of the loop until that happened. Rickon would already have been on Skagos, Arya might never have learned about how things stood in the North (she is not exactly in a position to get any good information in ASoS), and Sansa is at Littlefinger's mercy anyway.

Those men now declaring for Stannis and Roose in the North could easily also have replaced Stannis at the Wall. That's my point. Aemon could have called them to the Wall to explain how Mance was forced into making a deal with Jon. Instead George chose to get Stannis to the Wall and give him the main role as opponent of the Others rather than setting Jon up as this guy (yet).

I just don't interpret things in ADwD in a way that suggests Jon Snow is prepared to be a great leader in the immediate future. I think George would have set things up differently if that had been his plan.

I'm not sure what the difference is between Aemon writing letters urging the Lords of the North to defend the Wall - which was in their own interests! - and some guy doing that in the name of House Stark. The Lords of the North should have one uniting interest - that they are not overrun by about 100,000 wildlings. And that would have happened had Mance crossed the Wall.

Originally the plan was that the Lannisters would put down Robb and destroy Winterfell. That changed to the Freys and Boltons. But considering that the Lannisters as a political force were apparently never planned to be important players throughout the entire series I see no reason to believe the Boltons are all that important. They are still there because George wants to further weaken the North - just as Euron is there to weaken certain regions in the South, and Aegon is there to finally pull the Dornishmen into the war.

That is pretty clear to me - for the very same reason George went to great lengths to prevent the court in KL to take the threat of the wights/Others seriously back in ACoK and ASoS (Thorne having to talk to Tyrion; Sam never actually sending letters describing what had happened at the Fist of the First Men).

Even if I bought your interpretation of Jon's journey I'd have differences to draw your conclusion because he men and power don't just materialize when you need them. Not unless you only assume scenario in which everything works just fine for Jon Snow. But in light of his assassination a lot of scenario in which things don't work out positively for him and his cause are actually more likely.

A similar thing is the take on the situation in KL from those people who believe Kevan's murder will, for some weird reason, now result in Cersei's restoration to power. That just doesn't make much sense. It is very unlikely considering how she was publicly humiliated and how few men the Lannisters actually have in KL in comparison to the Tyrells. 

[Clegane'sPup]

10 hours ago, LordManderlyAsDragonRider said:

I really hope it gets resolved in WoW, although all the speculation is fun:)

I remember reading a theory about Mors Umber being the author of ALL the letters we see in the north in ADWD, but I thought it was a little too elaborate. But maybe I will re-read it, and focus more on just the pink letter.

This is the theory if you are interested:

https://cantuse.wordpress.com/2014/07/25/the-low-cunning-of-giants-the-devious-geniuses-in-house-umber/

 

Thanks for the link.

[bemused]

On 4/29/2016 at 0:03 PM, aryagonnakill#2 said:

But in taking Moat Cailin he did exactly what the letter does.  Sent someone in to say surrender or die. 

From a very broad perspective, this may be true - but it still doesn't resolve the many ambiguities surrounding the letter, and as always , with GRRM , the devil is in the details.

From here, I'm going to just address at random some of the points that have been made (because of the usual time contraints, interruptions and very slow typing).

I agree with many (not all) of the points made by @sweetsunray, some of which I've made myself in this and other threads, others which are new to me, but quite consistent with my own interpretations. ... However, I can't go along with the Dreadfort speculations.

I don't feel the Dreadfort will be dealt with very quickly, that is, not as part of Stannis' strategies. I think, for a satisfying narrative, any resolution to the "ancient enmity" between Bolton and Stark, and the truth of whether there are cloaks made from the skins of Starks among the Bolton family heirlooms, must come through a Stark POV. I'll come back to offer my own speculations as an alternative, later.

Getting back to the letter, as I said, the person it sounds most like is Thorne and I don't think he's hiding out just "elsewhere", but at CB. A path exists for him to be there (through the Black Gate and smuggled back to CB by Bowen and/or his stewards on one of their many trips to restore/resupply the Nightfort) ... And there is the whole business of the little cell , suitable for hiding out, discovered by Sam in AFfC, Samwell I, just before Jon sends Sam off with Aemon and Gilly.

The chair was very hard and cut into the back of his thighs when he bent over a book. I need to remember to bring a cushion. It would be even better if he could sleep down here, in the cell he'd found half-hidden behind four chests full of loose pages that had gotten separated from the books they belonged to, 

...and after speaking with Jon...

Sam did not recall leaving the armory. The next thing he knew he was stumbling through mud and patches of old snow, toward Maester Aemon's chambers. I could hide, he told himself. I could hide in the vaults amongst the books. I could live down there with the mouse and sneak up at night to steal food. Crazed thoughts, he knew, as futile as they were desperate. The vaults were the first place they would look for him. The last place they would look for him was beyond the Wall, but that was even madder. The wildlings would catch me and kill me slowly. They might burn me alive, the way the red woman means to burn Mance Rayder.

Sam never mentions the cell to Jon, or anyone else. His real fear is centred on his father, which he registers with Jon and Maester Aemon. .. So the only purpose these "cell" passages serve, is to establish that the cell exists (or perhaps, others like it).. and on hindsight, after Thorne is sent out, we can see by comparison that the first and last places anyone would look for Thorne are exactly opposite to those Sam envisions for himself (GRRM often uses this type of inversion). Sam's hypothetical fears of how he might be treated by the wildlings would no doubt be realistically shared by Thorne. ... And of course, with Bowen as an ally, Thorne wouldn't even have to sneak out to steal food. Room service would be available.

But if, as I believe, the conspirators intercepted and forged a new copy of the letter, we still need to figure out where it originated. Though I think Mance is a possibility, my best bet is placed on Stannis.

I'm never sure if spoilers are necessary or not, but in the TWoW Theon chapter..

 

It seems obvious that Bran and Bloodraven are in control of Tybald's ravens, so their "home" destination is irrelevant ... and it seems inevitable that Theon will be taken to the tree. Asha seems to have been advised to make her request by Alysanne / the Northmen, who would not want him burned and who

may not even want him executed, at that moment. ... The clans know Bran and Rickon survived, and Alysanne probably does as well. I think they would want final judgement on Theon's other acts to come from a Stark, and Stannis would not want to alienate them. .. Bran already wants to communicate with Theon and Theon wants to explain himself to the "old gods".(A perfect set-up for revelations.) I think Stannis would hand Theon off to Jon, along with "Arya", and might sentence Theon to the wall / offer him the option to take the black... Remember Tycho's party had not departed before Asha's request was made.

 

Stannis would definitely want to warn Jon of what was headed his way. He has, over the course of events, become increasingly accepting of magic and visions (Renly, Penrose, his own vision of The Fist) .. but (being a pragmatist) in case the ravens would fly to WF, he makes the letter appear to be authored by Ramsay (but in a less sneering tone than the letter Jon eventually receives). He has Tybald , who would probably be in possession of pink wax, and who would certainly know Ramsay's signature. 

@ sweetsunray , you said ...

Quote

Stannis does not actually want the bride back and wouldn't have Reek mentioned, not after he sent the bride to CB just recently and kept Reek. He would just want a letter written that declares him dead and having a lost a battle, and a Bolton demanding hostages to be sent (the people Stannis wants at WF). But Stannis including Reek into it out of his own volition and the Mance switcheroo seems a stretch.

 

I see a different interpretation. Stannis wouldn't want his people with him unless, or until he had actually taken WF. If he had taken it, there would be no need to write as if he was Ramsay. I think the letter was written from the battlefield, and that Ramsay having been convinced of Stannis' death, was riding after Tycho's party to try to recapture "Arya" and Reek. ... There's a danger that "Arya" might never reach Jon and Tycho might not live to register Stannis' loan with the IB. The letter is not about who Stannis wants with him, it's about warning Jon, so that he can take defensive / preemptive action. It announces Stannis' supposed death (in case the letter falls into Roose's hands),  while informing Jon of what Ramsay wants - his bride and his Reek.

Stannis would want to warn Jon that Ramsay's bride and Reek were on their way, with Ramsay in pursuit. (Theon has been insistent that Rams wants both.) It lets Jon know that "Arya" is not with Mance , and there is another person of interest to look out for, but doesn't clearly identify him ... In case the raven flies to WF, Stannis' deception that Rams sent it is necessary, and Ramsay would never call Theon anything but Reek.

I believe the text of the novels suggests that Stannis always knew about Mance's glamour, and after hours of conversation with Mance, he probably also knew that Mance habitually used the disguise of a bard on his reconnaissance trips south of the wall. Mance is not shy about admitting it. Stannis may even have known Mance's alias, but even if he didn't, combined with Theon's ramblings about Abel and the false washerwomen, he could figure it out.

He would want to let Jon know that Mance was likely a captive and Theon, Tybald, any number of northmen could have predicted what would happen to any captives of Ramsay's. I think Stannis would try to put the blame for Mance's survival on himself.. "Your false king lied" ..  to save Jon trouble with the NW. Thorne would have added "and so did you" to make sure Jon was thoroughly implicated. All the hostage demands apart from "My bride and my Reek" would be added by the conspirators. They want rid of the "hostages", but they also know Jon really couldn't comply without breaking the guest right he granted them .. whatever Jon chooses can be used to damn him.

So, at CB, the letter would be intercepted and copied with alterations by Thorne and Marsh (Clydas may be in collusion or perhaps more likely, under coercion.)

I've posted a proposed breakdown of the letter in a few threads. I can't remember which, off hand, but if anyone's interested, I could paste it here from my documents.

Comparing letters from Ramsay , there was no skin in Jon's "wedding announcement" letter. The only two pieces of skin we encounter are a: the one Roose received from Ramsay and passed on to Catelyn, and b: the one in Asha's letter. A third is implied to have been sent to Dagmer by the words,  "I send you each a piece of prince". To me, it doesn't follow that Ramsay would have hand written all the letters to the various Lords in blood and included skin in each. Jon's letter was different from Asha's and theirs would have been as well. The announcement (as in Jon's letter) that Roose had returned as warden of the North and was summoning them to WF (or in Jon's case, Barrowton) would have been adequate intimidation to use on them.

(Early on, I assumed Manderly and the others would have been summoned to Barrowton first, then sent a correction substituting WF, but I now realise that Jon's letter would have been the only one to ever say Barrowton, in case he shared the letter with Stannis.)

This first letter to Jon was signed in blood, but I think the text was written in ink.  It wasn't until Jon saw the signature that the spiky hand and brown, flaky ink are noted. Think of the way we write letters, with the signature at the bottom. With a scroll, the signature would be on the end that unrolls last. He urolls the scroll and reads it to himself, probably reading as he goes, then..  When he saw the signature, he forgot the battering Rattleshirt had given him.

Immediately after Jon takes in the signatures ... “Might we know what it says, my lord?” asked Iron Emmett.
Jon saw no reason not to tell him.  ... And he tells them what it contains. He doesn't go back and read it for the first time then, and he doesn't read it aloud - implying that he gives them the gist of the contents from memory, since he already read it, before he came to the signature. 

Out of time ..I'll be back later.

[DMC]

Nothing like a Pink Letter thread to evoke a reaction on the forum almost as intense as Jon's reaction to the Pink Letter.  Seriously, this has been fun to follow, with many great posters putting their two cents in (of course I'm mainly referring to THE TRUTH). 

I don't have much to add IRT the mystery of who wrote it - like many have already stated Stannis' motives are non-existent, Theon's opportunity is questionable, and Mance's means are either compromised or unknown. 

What has always interested me about the Pink Letter is more Jon's reaction.  It reformulates his priorities, which I think is the point.  I anticipate this will be in large part attributed to his resurrection, but Martin makes it clear with Jon's first introspection upon receiving the letter:

 

Quote

 

Jon flexed the fingers of his sword hand. The Night's Watch takes no part. He closed his fist and opened it again. What you propose is nothing less than treason. He thought of Robb, with snowflakes melting in his hair. Kill the boy and let the man be born. He thought of Bran, clambering up a tower wall, agile as a monkey. Of Rickon's breathless laughter. Of Sansa, brushing out Lady's coat and singing to herself. You know nothing, Jon Snow. He thought of Arya, her hair as tangled as a bird's nest. I made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell … I want my bride back … I want my bride back … I want my bride back …

 

"I think we had best change the plan," Jon Snow said.

 

[Emphasis Martin's]

 

 

The letter clearly did its job in finally shifting his priorities from the Watch back to his family.  I'm sure some, if not most, of those here would criticize Jon for this, but I don't.  The story is about exploring if compassion can ever overcome realpolitik.  If our better angels can ever shout down our greater demons.  It's about teaching these kids the precise opposite conclusion, over and over and over, and them choosing compassion/family/someone in spite of it.  So, yeah, if Jon broke his vows and didn't seek the Bolton's aid in fighting the Others because it was "bad strategy," I don't blame him.

 

Anyway, a thought about whether Jon thinks Stannis is dead:  well, he just read the letter to the entire Watch/Wildings.  I always took that statement more as "Selyse deserved to be told before I announced it to everybody here," more than whether or not Jon believes he's dead.  That may be splitting hairs though.

[Mayura]

Funnily enough, after reading and assessing the many theories for years, I still think Ramsay wrote the "pink letter". He probably wrote it using (mis)information sent from Stannis's camp

Spoiler

(it is implied in the TWOW chapters that Stannis has means to manipulate the Boltons)

 or even post-battle if what is said in the letter is true. 

The fact the letter mentions Stannis's heir and wife and the wildlings "royalties" isn't that surprising, as it is safe to assume at least one of the washerwomen has been captured and even though they are tough warriors, I'm sure they are not trained spies who can resist blurting out what they know under torture. Ramsay wants them to be delivered to him to make sure he can "crush" the Baratheon and King Beyond the Wall lines. The fact that he wants to have Melisandre to use her power isn't hard to understand either. 

The fact the letter demands "Arya" and "Reek" probably means Stannis has already dispatched them and Ramsay assumes they went to the Wall, which is the one place in the region where "Arya" is known to be 100% sure to find an ally in her brother. 

I know some of you criticize the wording but... Ramsay isn't exactly a deeply developed character in the books. How could we be sure it is beneath him to use the words "whore" or "bastard" while referring to other people. And I'm not convinced he wouldn't use the words "black crows" to qualify the Night's Watch either. He has most probably tortured at least some of the wildlings he caught (washerwomen and/or even Mance) and he might have found the expression to his liking and have used it.

The fact the seal on the letter is just a "blob of pink wax" might also just mean that the letter has previously been opened by Clydas with or without the assent and assistance of Bowen Marsh, as it has been strongly implied they didn't trust Jon. 

It is true the "style" (not written in blood and the lack of the traditional human skin gift) doesn't entirely fit Ramsay's style but it doesn't prevent the fact Ramsay could have written the letter in haste and rage after having received some misinformation from Stannis's camp. 

Although I don't think 100% of the letter's content is genuine, I am still not convinced it's impossible for Ramsay to have written this letter. 

[daccu65]

3 hours ago, Mayura said:

Although I don't think 100% of the letter's content is genuine, I am still not convinced it's impossible for Ramsay to have written this letter. 

Thank you for expressing my belief, as well. 

Personally, I think that the letter was written out of a sense of political desperation.  Ramsay and Roose know that they have their current position largely due to the support of the Lannisters; that "Arya" was a gift from the Lannisters, and if word gets out that "Arya" isn't Arya, it will prove to be a major embarrassment to the Lannisters.  As such, I believe that this letter was written, with the intention of being as insulting as possible, before the Bolton forces had even engaged Stannis. 

 

[bemused]

On 5/3/2016 at 10:16 AM, daccu65 said:

Thank you for expressing my belief, as well. 

Personally, I think that the letter was written out of a sense of political desperation.  Ramsay and Roose know that they have their current position largely due to the support of the Lannisters; that "Arya" was a gift from the Lannisters, and if word gets out that "Arya" isn't Arya, it will prove to be a major embarrassment to the Lannisters.  As such, I believe that this letter was written, with the intention of being as insulting as possible, before the Bolton forces had even engaged Stannis. 

I don't think the Boltons are that concerned about embarrassing the Lannisters. Roose gained power through duplicity in partnership with Tywin, but he'd never be so gullible as to think that would be Tywin's final move. Tywin had married a real Stark heiress to his own son. I think Roose could predict that as far as Tywin was concerned, he would simply be Tywin's placeholder in the North. Tywin wants to let Roose have the task of pacifying the other northern houses. Once that was done, Tywin could "discover" that Arya was an impostor, and step in with Tyrion / Sansa. Roose was always betting that one way or another, he'd be able to outmanoeuvre Tywin.

Probably the only thing Roose wouldn't have figured is that Tywin was willing to let the wall fall, so that Roose would have to deal with Mance as well. (Ironically, even though Tywin died before playing that card, wildlings will be a force to contend with anyway.)

Lady Dustin probably has it figured correctly when she says that Roose aspires to make himself "king of the north". From Roose's perspective, if he can establish control of the northern houses and clans, it won't matter much which southern faction secures the IT, or whether Tyrion and Sansa surface again. He can re-man Moat Cailin and hold off invasion from the south. He's more concerned that someone in the north will come forward with Bran or Rickon. I think he would always have considered Jon a threat anyway, but he may well know that a document outlining Robb's wishes for his succession exists, probably simultaneously declaring Jon legitimate. Roose did have discussions with Robb that we didn't witness at The Twins, and Robb saw no reason to keep secrets from Roose at the time.

Both Roose and Ramsay have always been ready to take any opportunity to seize power. It's natural to them. Why would they think Jon would not do the same ? They can see he became LC very quickly, so they would think he's ambitious. ... They also know that while Robb didn't set out to make himself king, he was perfectly willing to accept the title when the northmen conferred it on him. Why would they think Jon would not do the same ?

"Arya" is so important to the Bolton claim, there's no way the Boltons would just sit at WF and wait for someone to return her, thereby running the risk of exposure. Men they trusted would be sent out on her trail immediately, and they can't really trust anyone but themselves... That means Ramsay has left WF in pursuit.

Considering all this,as well as the style (etc.) of the letter, it's impossible for me to think that either Bolton would write a letter that would give Jon warning.

On 5/1/2016 at 2:26 AM, sweetsunray said:

I agree that the way whore and bastard is used in the letter would be right up Thorne's alley. But the issue is with Mance, the bride and Reek. If you think it was a feign letter from Stannis's camp with him able to oversee the content being sent to CB that was ramped up by Thorne, ..then it is doubtful Stannis would have included the Mance switcheroo.  1. Stannis does not actually want the bride back and wouldn't have Reek mentioned, not after he sent the bride to CB just recently and kept Reek. He would just want a letter written that declares him dead and having a lost a battle, and a Bolton demanding hostages to be sent 2. (the people Stannis wants at WF). But 3. Stannis including Reek into it out of his own volition and the Mance switcheroo seems a stretch. 

I'd say Thorne being behind it with this scenario is more likely than Ramsay for style reasons, but 4. less likely than Mance or Theon for half of the data content issues and opportunity issues.

The letter would be absolutely solved if we stuck Theon, Mance and Thorne in one room and have a go at writing a letter to Jon Snow.

I replied to these points to some extent in my previous post, but I'll add to that here.

1. We don't know that the bride had been sent and Theon kept . Stannis told Tycho .. "You will depart today.  Lord Bolton may be on us soon.  I will not have you caught up in the fighting." The chapter takes place beginning in the early morning, the Karstarks having been invited to break their fast with Stannis. Stannis was speaking to Asha at the end, with The Wull and others waiting just outside. It's not really possible that Tycho's party could have left immediately, and it's very, very possible that Theon's trip to the tree will take place before they manage to depart. There could be ample last minute reason for Stannis to change his plan, just like Jon.

2. After what he's been through, Stannis would definitely not be wanting his people (and especially his heir) undertaking a two week (at best) trip to WF in that weather, until he knows WF is securely his. But if he was firmly in control of WF, there would be no need to proclaim his death (or to be coy about naming anyone).

3. The letter leads me to believe that Stannis will send Theon to Jon, but can't name him, because Stannis doesn't yet have WF (and therefore, doesn't yet want Mel, Selyse or Shireen.) But he wants Jon to pay attention to "Reek", and to know that Ramsay wants him as well ... Theon has been unrecognizable to many, including his own sister... And I think Stannis would, of course, mention Mance. To my mind, he always knew about the Rattleshirt glamour. It was not only done to intimidate the wildlings, but to avoid the clamouring from the NW if he let Mance live. If he gave Mance to Jon, Jon would have felt duty bound (at that time) to execute him.

Now, there's every possibility Stannis could could figure out who Abel is, and that it would be Jon who sent him. To Stannis, it would seem likely that Mance could be captured and the Boltons would be only too pleased to advertise the fact that Jon was interfering, especially if they could get their hands on Arya first.

Stannis has said he needs Jon at the wall ( best man to hold the wall and protect Stannis' heir). He's also said a king should pay his debts. He would certainly do what he could to protect Jon from backlash from the Watch, if only to protect his own interests at the wall. I think he would have written something along the lines of,  "Your false king lied... ...  he sent him to WF to steal my bride.." , etc.

4. Any of the candidates, if taken individually, (e.g., Ramsay, Stannis, Mance, Theon , Thorne ) face problems with content or opportunity, to one degree or another. But take any one of the others + Thorne , and those problems are resolved. We don't have to have them all in one room, because Thorne can make changes, additions or deletions as he likes. Whatever the various motives of all of the others, Thorne's motives would be best served, because he had final control.

Here's a suggested breakdown that I've posted elsewhere before - in spoilers to save space .. (taking the view that Stannis wrote the original, with input from Theon) ...

Spoiler

I think Stannis would have written something like this :

Your false king is dead, He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red witch.

Your false king lied. He told the world he burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead he sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.I will have my bride back. 

I have Mance Rayder in a cage for all the north to see.The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

I want my bride back and I want my Reek. I will not trouble you or your black crows, but keep them from me, and I will cut out your heart and eat it.

(or possibly just ,  I want my bride back and I want my Reek. Do not keep them from me.)

 

(* Optional : Your false king’s friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell...
 and ... Keep them from me, and I will cut out your heart and eat it. )

 

And here is what we know Jon received, with proposed forged additions and changes marked in red:

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

Your false king’s friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell*. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

I want my bride back. I want the false king’s queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want his wildling princess.

I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows*. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard’s heart and eat it.

The one character who has repeatedly tried to goad Jon into an emotional response is Thorne (and he's had some success with it). .. Mance's use of "bastard", for example, differs in that it seems founded in sarcasm over Jon's ..“Did you see where they put the bastard?” .. or, e.g., the late Slynt's diatribes, while fed by Thorne, were full of false righteous indignation....  spoken more to impress others, than to goad Jon ('I will not suffer such-and-such'.. etc). The Boltons would have no reason to think Jon would be certain to respond to such baiting. He didn't have the reputation of being a hothead while growing up at WF, rather the reverse.

*For what I've called the optional lines, I don't think Stannis would claim " Your false king's friends are dead, etc." , which would seem to refer to the clans (but it wouldn't change much if he did use it)... However, from the conspirator's point of view, it's a claim that might help to excuse the conspirators and turn the clans against Jon (alive or dead), since Jon recommended Stannis try to enlist them.... (Flint and Norrey are still at the wall.)

 I don't know whether Stannis would have made the threat about cutting out and eating Jon's heart (maybe he would). Without "bastard's heart", specifically, it's a fairly common form of threat ... like Cotter Pyke's threat, after the election - “Lord Snow,” said Cotter Pyke, “if you muck this up, I’m going to rip your liver out and eat it raw with onions.” ...These are usually not meant literally, but Stannis might have wanted to emphasize the threat Ramsay posed. .. If Stannis used it, "bastard's heart" would have been added by Thorne.

Thorne would have no reason to delete the "7 days of battle". It simply seems to be a boast. (But it might actually be a clue relating to when "Arya" was rescued, or other possibilities.)

 I wanted to elaborate a bit on Stannis / Theon and any plans to take the Dreadfort , but because of time and length ,I'll post that later tonight.

[daccu65]

48 minutes ago, bemused said:

"Arya" is so important to the Bolton claim, there's no way the Boltons would just sit at WF and wait for someone to return her, thereby running the risk of exposure. Men they trusted would be sent out on her trail immediately, and they can't really trust anyone but themselves... That means Ramsay has left WF in pursuit.

I agree.  However, my belief is that Roose/Ramsay don't realize that Reek and Jeyne are heading to Stannis, they honestly believe that they are heading for the wall.  In my opinion, they aren't counting on anyone to simply return 'Arya' to them.  If Ramsay wrote the letter, he was trying to prevent Jon from announcing to Westeros at large that "Arya" wasn't really Arya...at least until after the Boltons had recovered her.

I'm not completely convinced that Ramsay wrote the letter.  However, I'm equally unconvinced that anyone else wrote the letter.  All of the possible authors; Ramsay, Stannis, Dustin, Manderly, Mance, someone at Castle Black...all of the theories that I have read neither prove or disprove any author.  All seem to have some supporting evidence while all still have "holes" in the theory.  I personally think it's possible that Ramsay wrote the letter, but if so I think he wrote it before he even engaged Stannis, in an effort to keep Jon from announcing Jeyne's identity and damaging both his claim to the north and embarrassing his benefactors in KL.

 

[bemused]

47 minutes ago, daccu65 said:

I agree.  However, my belief is that Roose/Ramsay don't realize that Reek and Jeyne are heading to Stannis, they honestly believe that they are heading for the wall. 

OK... What makes you think this ? Do you think that they would have got the information from either a spearwife, or Mance? ...Because they said their plan was to get Jeyne to Stannis. (Both quotes from Theon I) ...

"Lord Stannis is outside the walls, and not far by the sound of it. All we need do is reach him." Abel's fingers danced across the strings of his lute. The singer's beard was brown, though his long hair had largely gone to grey. "If the Bastard does come after us, he might live long enough to rue it." ...

"The snow will hide us. Are you deaf? Bolton is sending forth his swords. We have to reach King Stannis before they do."

Or, if they captured one of Mors' green boys, the answer would be the same.

47 minutes ago, daccu65 said:

I personally think it's possible that Ramsay wrote the letter, but if so I think he wrote it before he even engaged Stannis, in an effort to keep Jon from announcing Jeyne's identity and damaging both his claim to the north and embarrassing his benefactors in KL

If so, does he know about Stannis' "friends", the clans? I'm not sure he does...

47 minutes ago, daccu65 said:

All of the possible authors; Ramsay, Stannis, Dustin, Manderly, Mance, someone at Castle Black...all of the theories that I have read neither prove or disprove any author.

This means you haven't considered a combination of Thorne or Marsh (if you don't think Thorne can be at CB) because the holes that exist for any of the other authors can be filled in by someone at CB .. and only by someone at CB.

[daccu65]

48 minutes ago, bemused said:

OK... What makes you think this ? Do you think that they would have got the information from either a spearwife, or Mance? ...Because they said their plan was to get Jeyne to Stannis. (Both quotes from Theon

Not in the books.  But what I "know" was that when Theon and Jeyne went over the wall, the Manderly and Frey forces were preparing to leave to confront Stannis.  Jeyne and Theon made contact with the Umbers outside of Winterfell, who put them together with the banker and his two NW escorts.  This group of 5 then left, went all the way to Deepwood Motte, then back to Stannis before Stannis engaged the Freys.  This is a lot of time, so I believe that something must have delayed the Freys/Manderlys on their trip to Stannis' location...say the need to scour the area in search of Theon and Jeyne?  If they were to capture one or more of Mors' green boys, the typical Umber "rank and file" probably won't know that the two escapees were headed to Stannis...but they would know that they left with a strange man and two members of the NW. 

If you were Ramsay and had tortured the plan to get "Arya" to Stannis out of the remaining spearwives, but later learned that "Arya" was seen leaving the area with two members of the NW, you'd probably assume that the plan had changed and your wife and whipping boy were now heading to Jon at Castle Black.  You'd also know that the moment she reaches CB, Jon's going to know that it isn't Arya.

48 minutes ago, bemused said:

If so, does he know about Stannis' "friends", the clans? I'm not sure he does...

I just reread the letter; I didn't see anyplace that referred to the clans, only that Stannis and "all his host" had been smashed.  Even if so, in TWOW, didn't Stannis figure out that the maester with him was feeding the Boltons information?  In order to know where Stannis was at, the Boltons had to either have scouts watching him, or a spy with him.

48 minutes ago, bemused said:

This means you haven't considered a combination of Thorne or Marsh (if you don't think Thorne can be at CB) because the holes that exist for any of the other authors can be filled in by someone at CB .. and only by someone at CB.

But does anyone at Castle Black, Thorne and Marsh included, know Theon as "Reek"?  This is the big problem I have with a NW writing the letter, I don't know of any member, Jon included, who know who "Reek" is.  This is also the big hole I have with either Mance or Stannis writing the letter...while they know that Reek=Theon, they also know that Jon doesn't know who Reek is.  Either the author is trying to confuse Jon even more or the author knows who Reek is and thinks that Jon is about to learn who Reek is. 

Every theory I have read has at least one hole.  Some are large and some small.  Therefore, I'm just hoping that someone will 'fess up in TWoW.

 

[Nevets]

25 minutes ago, daccu65 said:

But what I "know" was that when Theon and Jeyne went over the wall, the Manderly and Frey forces were preparing to leave to confront Stannis.  Jeyne and Theon made contact with the Umbers outside of Winterfell, who put them together with the banker and his two NW escorts.  This group of 5 then left, went all the way to Deepwood Motte, then back to Stannis before Stannis engaged the Freys

Actually, they went straight from Winterfell to Stannis's camp, which was a short journey for a small party such as theirs.  They said they came from Deepwood Motte because they had, by way of Winterfell.  WF was where they thought Stannis was, which is why they stopped there.  But they had originally come from Deepwood Motte, as they said.

As for the original question, as I have mentioned upthread, i think Ramsay wrote the letter.  This theory has the fewest problems, and none that are unworkable.  He has access to all the info in it, and he had motive, ability and opportunity, of which all of the other theories lack at least one.

[daccu65]

17 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Actually, they went straight from Winterfell to Stannis's camp, which was a short journey for a small party such as theirs.  They said they came from Deepwood Motte because they had, by way of Winterfell.  WF was where they thought Stannis was, which is why they stopped there.  But they had originally come from Deepwood Motte, as they said

I guess I misinterpreted.  When Theon, Jeyne, the banker and the Ironborn showed up at Stannis' camp, I assumed that the banker and his escorts had gone from CB to Winterfell, where they met up with Theon and Jeyne, then went to Deepwood Motte, ransomed the Ironborn and met with Stannis.  I guess the banker and his escorts went to Deepwood Motte, ransomed the Ironborn, then went to Winterfell, met up with Theon and Jeyen, then backtracked to find Stannis.  Still, if one of the Umbers was able to report that "Reek" and "Arya" left with a party that contained two NW brothers, Ramsay could conclude that they were heading to CB.

 

[bemused]

@daccu65 .. For clarification...

What do you mean by "Not in the books" ? .. I just gave you two quotes from ADWD, Theon I (his last chapter in ADWD), one spoken by Mance/Abel, one spoken by a spearwife. Both plainly said they wanted to get to Stannis . ???

1 hour ago, daccu65 said:

Jeyne and Theon made contact with the Umbers outside of Winterfell, who put them together with the banker and his two NW escorts.  This group of 5 then left, went all the way to Deepwood Motte, then back to Stannis before Stannis engaged the Freys. 

This is incorrect. Let's come at it from a different perspective, Tycho's.

1. Tycho and 2 NW guides leave the wall and follow Stannis' trail to Deepwood Motte. Stannis has gone on to WF.

2. Tycho ransoms Asha's men from Lady Glover and takes 3 of them (I think) with him as well , as extra protection. They then travel to WF, without finding Stannis on the way (probably due to the storm)

3. Mors and his green boys have rescued Theon and Jeyne. Since Tycho is going to Stannis anyway, they give T&J to Tycho's party and tell them where to find Stannis. The storm still causes them to take a bit longer to find Stannis' camp. (They do not go all the way back to Deepwood and then back to Stannis.) They are a group of 8.

ETA: I see Nevets already replied.

1 hour ago, daccu65 said:

If you were Ramsay and had tortured the plan to get "Arya" to Stannis out of the remaining spearwives, but later learned that "Arya" was seen leaving the area with two members of the NW, you'd probably assume that the plan had changed and your wife and whipping boy were now heading to Jon at Castle Black. 

They wouldn't be seen. We've been told repeatedly that the snow was so thick you could barely see a few feet in front of you.

 

1 hour ago, daccu65 said:

I just reread the letter; I didn't see anyplace that referred to the clans, only that Stannis and "all his host" had been smashed. 

The line.. "Your false king’s friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell" is widely thought to refer to the clans, because they aren't Stannis' men, but have agreed to ally with him "for Ned's little girl". (And yes, the Boltons knew where Stannis was because the maester sent them a map by raven.)

 

1 hour ago, daccu65 said:

But does anyone at Castle Black, Thorne and Marsh included, know Theon as "Reek"?  This is the big problem I have with a NW writing the letter, I don't know of any member, Jon included, who know who "Reek" is.  This is also the big hole I have with either Mance or Stannis writing the letter...while they know that Reek=Theon, they also know that Jon doesn't know who Reek is.  Either the author is trying to confuse Jon even more or the author knows who Reek is and thinks that Jon is about to learn who Reek is. 

The person writing the original and the person at CB don't have to understand all of the same things. That's my point. No one person writes the whole thing. One person writes what they want and the next makes whatever changes they want. Thorne or Marsh wouldn't know who (or what) "Reek" was, but they wouldn't change it, because Jon might know. And in any case, it would seem to be something/someone of Ramsay's in Jon's posession, which reflects poorly on Jon... and that's fine with them.

And as I said before, Stannis or Mance would mention him as a flag to Jon (not to confuse him) - there's someone else of interest you should know is coming, too. ... There. Now Jon's been alerted, even though Stannis or Mance wasn't free to name Theon.

[daccu65]

51 minutes ago, bemused said:

They wouldn't be seen. We've been told repeatedly that the snow was so thick you could barely see a few feet in front of you.

They weren't seen by the Bolton/Frey/Manderly forces.  However, if Mors told some of his men to provide additional horses to the party (Theon and Jeyne fled without horses), if said men were later captured by the Bolton forces, they would have stated that "Arya" and "Reek" had left the camp with Ironborn, a Braavosi (if they didn't just say foreigner) and two members of the NW.  Again, if Mors didn't tell his men where this party was going, just to give them horses, anyone who learned that Reek and Arya left with two members of the NW could very well assume that they were heading to Castle Black. 

Like I said before, every theory, including mine and your Stannis writes and someone at CB intercepts requires some reaching.  I'm just hoping that the plot will get explained when TWoW finally comes out.

 

 

[Batbob45]

If he wrote the letter, than the letter content is pretty tame compared to Ramsey's MO of  not being low key about being an psycho, He only call Jon and Mel an not so flattering  name. He didn't say anything horrible about Selyse and Shireen. Steelshanks is most likely to wrote it than Ramsey.

[Jadakiss]

Saw this thread had to bump it. Amazing how some people still post dumb crap without reading the thread

 

@Batbob45 when talking about ramsays MO, only 50 people in this thread explained why, that reek was with him for a long time. Its very clear tybald wrote it and stannis and theon dictated it/ There is just tons of evidence that I have seenmultiple people provide

[Jadakiss]

sweetsunray and the truth nailed it big time

 

and the cantuse manifesto that has been correct for the last 2 books has the same thing

[Nevets]

We believe it because, while having Ramsay write the letter is somewhat unsatisfying and has certain problems associated with it, all of the other candidates are either lacking necessary knowledge, means, and/or motive.  Only Ramsay has all three.  That is why I believe Ramsay wrote it.

[aryagonnakill#2]

7 minutes ago, Nevets said:

We believe it because, while having Ramsay write the letter is somewhat unsatisfying and has certain problems associated with it, all of the other candidates are either lacking necessary knowledge, means, and/or motive.  Only Ramsay has all three.  That is why I believe Ramsay wrote it.

In other words, you live in reality.

[Jadakiss]

11 hours ago, Nevets said:

We believe it because, while having Ramsay write the letter is somewhat unsatisfying and has certain problems associated with it, all of the other candidates are either lacking necessary knowledge, means, and/or motive.  Only Ramsay has all three.  That is why I believe Ramsay wrote it.

 

um not at all. people here have stated it 1000 times about the "lacking knowledge" in camp stannis he has people who have been around ramsay forever. and motive etc are you trolling? you really should read the manifesto or go look at the huge hint an grin grrm already did

 

if we the op first post and all theones by sweetsunray and others and still cant understand it then I cant help you........ there is tons of motive for stannis. tons

 

why would he change his hand writing now? with all the torture he has done why would he not send any body parts as usual? why no house bolton seal?........ but its written in pink ink.....oh who has pink ink? maester tybald, a prisoner of stannis wtc, and that isnt even in the top 100 obvious reasons

 

why would he use the word whore? he never uses the word ever in the books, but guess who says it ALL THE TIME theon. you guys should read through first few pages