How do some people honestly think Ramsay wrote the pink letter?

[John Doe]

I think it's either Mance, Ramsay, or Dustin. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

8 minutes ago, The Truth said:

Mance would be an idiot to do that. Being his child and people he cares about are not with him. None of what you posted holds up at all. To the questions you stated they have been answered by numerous people already. The mance and the bolton thing is a worse guess then the guy who said he thinks stannis is doing it to get shireen to him to burn her, no offense

The fact is, there is much in that letter which Ramsay should not care about at all. Mance's child, Val, Dalla etc. He could care less about some savages from beyond the Wall.

Similarly, Stannis has no need of them either.

There is way too much of  Mance in that letter for him to have had no hand in it. Also, Martin was careful to tell us through Jon that while the letter may not be telling the whole truth, there is some truth in it. I think it tells the course of the Seven days of Battle true, as far as the Boltons are aware. I think they do have Stannis's sword. And I think they do believe he is dead. And I think the letter did come from Winterfell.

The letter achieves NOTHING from Stannis's point of view.

Alternatively, if could still come from Stannis's camp, but without Stannis's involvement. Meaning Stannis is dead, or gravely wounded, and Theon and Asha have concocted the letter, to manipulate Jon into marching South with the Wildlings.

But if Stannis was still alive, there is absolutely no reason why he would want Shireen and Selyse to be brought to Winterfell, unless he had already taken Winterfell. And in that case he would have no need of such a convoluted approach. He could just have them sent for.

So my theories:

If it came from Winterfell, Mance had a hand in it. And if it came from Stannis's camp, it was done by Theon and Asha. Stannis had no hand in it.

[butterbumps!]

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

But I agree that the sum of all the ambiguous elements, and imo including the absence of evidence that Boltons can even send ravens from ruined WF itself (so far they have solely received ravens), and George stressing how Luwin's ravens are in the heart tree (and those could only be ravens homing into WF) and the rookery burned leads to ruling out Ramsay as the author of the Pink Letter.

Why would the Boltons be relying on Winterfell's ravens?    From the very first book, the Boltons (both of them, though Rams to an admittedly lesser extent than Roose) are shown to be prodigious letter-writers.   Letter-writing is so much a part of their established methodology that it strikes me as highly out of character for them to have not prepared for letter writing that wouldn't involve relying on WF's rookery, which they'd know is destroyed.

[Good Guy Garlan]

1 minute ago, The Truth said:

Mance would be an idiot to do that. Being his child and people he cares about are not with him. None of what you posted holds up at all. To the questions you stated they have been answered by numerous people already. The mance and the bolton thing is a worse guess then the guy who said he thinks stannis is doing it to get shireen to him to burn her, no offense

Mance and the Boltons makes infinitely more sense than Stannis sending Jon a freaking Boy Scout hidden code message. So what, Jon should've read all capital letters to make out the hidden word? Come on. 

Jon himself tells Stannis that he should make good use of Mance, and that Mance can truly bring the wildlings to his side. Stannis didn't listen, but Roose is not that narrow minded. He ought to know Mance is worth more alive and well than dead or imprisoned. 

I don't know if I buy all of the argument of @Free Northman Reborn, in particular the part about Mance still caring about the wildlings (I think he meant it when he said he was done with them and is now looking for his own interests), but Mance and the Boltons still is the best choice. 

I mean, if Stannis sent the letter that makes him more stupid than Cersei and Harrys Swift combined. 

[watcher of the night]

5 minutes ago, Leonardo said:

How would they know or care who Reek is?

Perhaps Stannis indeed wrote a letter, along the lines: "all is fine, I won the fight. I have the fake stark girl and a guy calls himself reek, don't worry." Or Ramsay wrote a more offical letter mentioning Reek. Either way, Clydas read it and got the idea (perhaps with the help of others) to beef up the content to lure Jon into doing something stupid.

[sweetsunray]

7 minutes ago, Leonardo said:

Stannis has already sent Jon a letter and is relying on him for a power base

Of course he has ravens for CB lol

Stannis sent a letter to Jon from Deepwood Motte, where there are ravens for CB...That is the only time he writes Jon. He states his intentions in that letter - marching for WF... There he wanted the news spead. He wanted to lure Roose and his allies to WF and shack up there, bringing in food (that wasn't there at all before Roose moved the wedding there). The problem for Roose was that he only had the food the allies brought with them, which would never be their complete winter stock. It doesn't even have the Dreadfort stock (the largest winter food stock), since Ramsay and his 600 men were already at Moat Cailin. With all those mouths to feed and horses to feed, tensions would rise to a boiling point soon. Stannis expected this to happen - he's been through a yearlong siege after all. Stannis marching for WF was a plan imo to make Roose race for WF and get trapped in there. Once trapped and fights start to break out, Roose is compelled to send his allies out to engage Stannis, but would not do a full-out attack with all of his forces. So, 2000 soldiers here, another 1000 later. ANd each time these broken up armies take food with them (horse meat and baggage trains). And each time Stannis and his allies outnumber the broken up armies and know the terrain better than the ones coming (since they set up camp there).

So, he sends a letter to Jon from Deepwood Motte publically announcing his attentions in order to spread the news and spring the trap for Roose and his allies. But when he does not want the world to be in the know of it, he has a message sent to CB that appears as if he's dead. What chances are there that anyone outside of the North would send troops to WF and ny other castle that Stannis takes then? Sure, Cersei has other issues to content with, but Stannis is not aware of that. 

Why would he have ravens for CB?He needs first of all ravens who home in on CB, a raven handler and raven food.

[Free Northman Reborn]

What I think happened, considering everything we know, is that the battle is done, that Stannis's trap worked and the Freys were lost in the Lake, that Ramsay arrived thereafter and engaged in a brief but bloody battle with Stannis's forces, during which he captured Stannis's sword, before being forced to retreat due to suddenly being outnumbered after the loss of the 1500 Freys.

Ramsay retreated to Winterfell. (The seven days of battle comes from Stannis being 3 days from Winterfell. So 3 days there, one day of battle, 3 days back, gives you seven days).

So Ramsay is now stuck in Winterfell again, bloodied and weakened, but not defeated. He has lost his link to legitimacy with the loss of "Arya Stark", and the situation in Winterfell is getting explosive. From some captives from the battle of Ice, he knows that Stannis sent Jeyne Pool off to the Wall. For some reason he seems to think that Theon went there too. Maybe he just assumes that because they were last seen escaping together.

He has captured Mance. But thanks to Ramsay's weakened - and fast deteroriating - position, Mance has some leverage, which is all that can save him from a flaying. So shrewd as he is, he uses this leverage to help Ramsay craft the letter, promising him the help of thousands of Wildlings to bolster his position as his own lords start growing restless and the remainder of Stannis's host remains intact.

So the letter was written by Ramsay with assistance from a captive Mance. And yes, Mance is probably still playing both sides. No doubt he was counting on Mellisandre getting the message, due to something unknown they may have agreed upon off screen, as part of his mission to Winterfell. Maybe she can assist him from afar, through the ruby, or provide some type of magical assistance in a different way.

But that Mance had significant input into the letter seems pretty obvious to me.

[kimim]

OK I think Ramsay sent that letter. Nothing else makes sense:

Stannis: If he wants his wife and kid, why doesn't he just say "Hey, we won!!! I want my dear wife and daughter here so we can celebrate! Send them over, Jon."

Mance: That Mance would be running around, sending letters to Jon is insane. Last we saw him, he was about to be captured by the Boltons. Meanwhile, Stannis's army is outside, and they want Mance, too. If I were Mance, I'd be running for dear life, not sending ravens

Theon: WHY would he write such a letter? What's he gaining?

 

Finally: Everyone's taking it for granted that Jon would go to Winterfell after reading the letter. But why would he? There's a snowstorm out there. He only has a few hundred wildlings. The Boltons have won (per the letter) and they're sitting with their allies in Winterfell. Besieging Winterfell under these circumstances would be suicidal, and Jon isn't suicidal. He's practical. He warns Stannis against besieging Dreadfort, and he's not optimistic about Stannis' odds against Winterfell. It would be extraordinarily unlikely for Jon to read that letter, and decide to take on Winterfell with a few hundred wildlings. Stannis would know this. Mance would, too.

The best way to get Jon to do something so against character and suicidal, is to work on his emotions: Tell him they have Arya, and that they're alternately flaying and raping her. With dogs. That would likely get Jon to Winterfell, but that's not what the letter says. The letter says Arya is not at Winterfell...a disastrous thing to say, if you want Jon to commit suicide by Bolton. No, Arya has escaped, so no need to besiege Winterfell to save her. If his requirements are not met, Ramsay will leave the safety of Winterfell, and head north to Castle Black--so again, no need to besiege Winterfell. Best way of dealing with that one would be to take a couple of hundred wildlings and waylay Ramsay on the road, where he will be far more vulnerable than he was in Winterfell.

The only writer that makes sense is the obvious: Ramsay. He's making impossible demands. When these are not met, Ramsay has an excuse to move north, and capture Castle Black. He can do so easily, as the place can't be defended from the south. So for me, the mystery isn't the identity of the author , but how much of the letter is true or false. Did the Boltons really capture Stannis? Do they really have Mance? Did Manderly rebel? What happened?

[sweetsunray]

3 minutes ago, butterbumps! said:

Why would the Boltons be relying on Winterfell's ravens?    From the very first book, the Boltons (both of them, though Rams to an admittedly lesser extent than Roose) are shown to be prodigious letter-writers.   Letter-writing is so much a part of their established methodology that it strikes me as highly out of character for them to have not prepared for letter writing upon taking Winterfell.

Roose used the ravens available at HH to write letters. WF's rookery is gone. All the ravens that home in on any other location but WF would have flown off to their home destination upon release, aka when Ramsay burned down WF in aCoK. Since then, WF has been abandoned.

Ramsay left the Dreadfort in order to liberate Moat Cailin and met up with dad to then proceed to Barrowton. The messages sent to Asha and CB by the Boltons and his allies were sent from Barrowhall. All of Roose's allies gathered at Barrowhall first where Roose invited everyone to witness the wedding between Ramsay and fArya. The wedding was planned to happen at Barrowhall. That's the message Jon received - a wedding invitation for Barrowhall. Hence, Roose's allies did not expect to go to the ruin of WF. Since Barrowhall has its ravens, those allies would not bring ravens of their own, except Manderly perhaps (but he would not lend them to Roose, or even let Roose know he has ravens with him). As for defenses: Roose expected Stannis would fall for the Karstark trap and try to take the Dreadfort. Roose planned to march on the Dreadfort, which also has its ravens (and the ones that home in on other locations in order to be sent). And then suddenly he has to alter plans and races for WF, together with the allies who are already at Barrowhall.

Dustin despises maesters and their ravens. I doubt Dustin brought ravens along to WF. The question is whether Roose thought long ahead enough, whether he realized that WF's rookery was probably a shambles and he would not have ravens at his disposal there. I think he did not think things through. His dash to camp in a ruined WF without food supply in order to prevent Stannis from taking it with an army of +6000 and +1000 horses tells me that no, Roose reacted rather than planned things. And once Roose arrives at WF, that's when he finds out there are no ravens he can send to anywhere. There are only ravens that have WF for a home, up in a tree. If he cannot send ravens from WF, he also cannot send ravens to the Dreadfort even to deliver a batch of sending ravens to WF. He's blind, snowed in and hostilities are building up and he cannot communicate. And it seems to start to dawn on Roose he might have made a tactical mistake when Freys and Manderly fight. 

Roose would only have sending ravens IF Ramsay had thought of having the Dreadfort maesters take along a batch of ravens when he set off for Moat Cailin. Or if he sent a letter from Barrowhall to the Dreadfort before setting out for WF to carry a batch of ravens along to WF, or ordered Dustin to take ravens with her. But as I said, Roose would only do the latter 2, if he had thought the situation of WF through. And I don't think he did. Nor would Ramsay. Hence, no ravens at WF, and Stannis solely seems to have ravens the Karstarks did bring to take along (in order to betray info to Roose), but those ravens fly for WF, not CB.

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 minute ago, kimim said:

OK I think Ramsay sent that letter. Nothing else makes sense:

Stannis: If he wants his wife and kid, why doesn't he just say "Hey, we won!!! I want my dear wife and daughter here so we can celebrate! Send them over, Jon."

Mance: That Mance would be running around, sending letters to Jon is insane. Last we saw him, he was about to be captured by the Boltons. Meanwhile, Stannis's army is outside, and they want Mance, too. If I were Mance, I'd be running for dear life, not sending ravens

Theon: WHY would he write such a letter? What's he gaining?

 

Finally: Everyone's taking it for granted that Jon would go to Winterfell after reading the letter. But why would he? There's a snowstorm out there. He only has a few hundred wildlings. The Boltons have won (per the letter) and they're sitting with their allies in Winterfell. Besieging Winterfell under these circumstances would be suicidal, and Jon isn't suicidal. He's practical. He warns Stannis against besieging Dreadfort, and he's not optimistic about Stannis' odds against Winterfell. It would be extraordinarily unlikely for Jon to read that letter, and decide to take on Winterfell with a few hundred wildlings. Stannis would know this. Mance would, too.

The best way to get Jon to do something so against character and suicidal, is to work on his emotions: Tell him they have Arya, and that they're alternately flaying and raping her. With dogs. That would likely get Jon to Winterfell, but that's not what the letter says. The letter says Arya is not at Winterfell...a disastrous thing to say, if you want Jon to commit suicide by Bolton. No, Arya has escaped, so no need to besiege Winterfell to save her. If his requirements are not met, Ramsay will leave the safety of Winterfell, and head north to Castle Black--so again, no need to besiege Winterfell. Best way of dealing with that one would be to take a couple of hundred wildlings and waylay Ramsay on the road, where he will be far more vulnerable than he was in Winterfell.

The only writer that makes sense is the obvious: Ramsay. He's making impossible demands. When these are not met, Ramsay has an excuse to move north, and capture Castle Black. He can do so easily, as the place can't be defended from the south. So for me, the mystery isn't the identity of the author , but how much of the letter is true or false. Did the Boltons really capture Stannis? Do they really have Mance? Did Manderly rebel? What happened?

Good points. I think Mance is captive, and provided significant input into the letter as a result.

I further think Ramsay had to retreat from the Battle of Ice with a bloody nose, but not without doing some damage to Stannis's forces himself. Maybe he even captured Stannis's sword.

Ramsay is now back in Winterfell, with maybe 2000 fewer men, and without his Stark bride, which was all that kept most of the Northern lords loyal to him. And Stannis's forces are still out there. So Ramsay is growing desperate. Maybe Roose has even departed from Winterfell, sensing doom, and has headed back to the Dreadfort, leaving Ramsay alone in Winterfell.

That is the situation behind the letter, I believe.

[Free Northman Reborn]

4 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Roose used the ravens available at HH to write letters. WF's rookery is gone. All the ravens that home in on any other location but WF would have flown off to their home destination upon release, aka when Ramsay burned down WF in aCoK. Since then, WF has been abandoned.

Ramsay left the Dreadfort in order to liberate Moat Cailin and met up with dad to then proceed to Barrowton. The messages sent to Asha and CB by the Boltons and his allies were sent from Barrowhall. All of Roose's allies gathered at Barrowhall first where Roose invited everyone to witness the wedding between Ramsay and fArya. The wedding was planned to happen at Barrowhall. That's the message Jon received - a wedding invitation for Barrowhall. Hence, Roose's allies did not expect to go to the ruin of WF. Since Barrowhall has its ravens, those allies would not bring ravens of their own, except Manderly perhaps (but he would not lend them to Roose, or even let Roose know he has ravens with him). As for defenses: Roose expected Stannis would fall for the Karstark trap and try to take the Dreadfort. Roose planned to march on the Dreadfort, which also has its ravens (and the ones that home in on other locations in order to be sent). And then suddenly he has to alter plans and races for WF, together with the allies who are already at Barrowhall.

Dustin despises maesters and their ravens. I doubt Dustin brought ravens along to WF. The question is whether Roose thought long ahead enough, whether he realized that WF's rookery was probably a shambles and he would not have ravens at his disposal there. I think he did not think things through. His dash to camp in a ruined WF without food supply in order to prevent Stannis from taking it with an army of +6000 and +1000 horses tells me that no, Roose reacted rather than planned things. And once Roose arrives at WF, that's when he finds out there are no ravens he can send to anywhere. There are only ravens that have WF for a home, up in a tree. If he cannot send ravens from WF, he also cannot send ravens to the Dreadfort even to deliver a batch of sending ravens to WF. He's blind, snowed in and hostilities are building up and he cannot communicate. And it seems to start to dawn on Roose he might have made a tactical mistake when Freys and Manderly fight. 

Roose would only have sending ravens IF Ramsay had thought of having the Dreadfort maesters take along a batch of ravens when he set off for Moat Cailin. Or if he sent a letter from Barrowhall to the Dreadfort before setting out for WF to carry a batch of ravens along to WF, or ordered Dustin to take ravens with her. But as I said, Roose would only do the latter 2, if he had thought the situation of WF through. And I don't think he did. Nor would Ramsay. Hence, no ravens at WF, and Stannis solely seems to have ravens the Karstarks did bring to take along (in order to betray info to Roose), but those ravens fly for WF, not CB.

 

The idea that the Overlord of the North does not have Ravens with him in the middle of a war is ludicrous. Strategically that would be a terrible situation. Ravens can be gathered at every castle that has a Maester. Each of the lords attending Ramsay's wedding likely brought their own clutch of Ravens along with them, for general communication purposes. Roose could get Ravens from Castle Cerwyn - day's ride from Winterfell - or have sent for some from any other location in the North.

He definitely has Ravens to send messages to Castle Black. I think it is non-argument to rely on him not having any to support your theory.

[Lord Varys]

@Free Northman Reborn

I really don't get why so many people think whoever wrote the letter would not lie about 'the magic sword'. I mean, it is widely known that Stannis Baratheon has fancy magic sword. If I would want to make somebody believe that I have defeated him in battle I'd most likely also claim that I have captured his sword.

The idea that Mance is in any position to offer anyone a deal or play both sides makes no sense in context.

If Mance was captured - and not just some of the spear-wives (and we don't know that) - then there is no reason to assume that the Boltons waited until Ramsay's return from the village (assuming he rode there and returned alive) before they started to question Mance. And since they would have wanted to know who had taken Jeyne, why, and to whom they would have started right now after they realized she and Theon were gone and could not be found.

We don't know how quickly Mance would break, but the spear-wives are there, too. And all the contents of the letter could come from them as much as from Mance directly - most importantly the fact that the Abel chap was, in fact, Mance Rayder.

I'd not underestimate the possibility of Mance getting out of the castle. The man can fight, after all, that has been reinforced in ADwD, and we did not see him being captured. It is just as likely that only the spear-wives who were captured are flayed, not so much Mance Rayder himself.

[Great Gods' Guinness]

The conundrum of the Pink Letter makes R+L=J look like 2+2=4. When we get the definitive answer of who wrote it and what his actual motivation was, there are going to be screams of dismay and howls of well-earned self-righteousness from those who figured it out. 

[sweetsunray]

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The idea that the Overlord of the North does not have Ravens with him in the middle of a war is ludicrous. Strategically that would be a terrible situation. Ravens can be gathered at every castle that has a Maester. Each of the lords attending Ramsay's wedding likely brought their own clutch of Ravens along with them, for general communication purposes. Roose could get Ravens from Castle Cerwyn - day's ride from Winterfell - or have sent for some from any other location in the North.

He definitely has Ravens to send messages to Castle Black. I think it is non-argument to rely on him not having any to support your theory.

A day's ride from WF when there's no winter storm. There is a winter storm. And why would you assume that Roose's allies are actually his allies? None of the "allied" houses brought hostages, which Roose asked them to bring. Cerwyn was a very loyal house to Stark. The young Lord of House Cerwyn was friends with Robb and Jon. Manderly isn't going to help Roose either. Umbers... Well they're split up, with the greenboys (younger generation) outside, and the greybears inside. What did Hugo Wull tell Stannis? Oh, that's right - old men sacrifice themselves during winter to die. So, the Umbers aren't going to help Roose out by taking ravens along either. And then there's Dustin checking out crypts for missing swords and telling Theon how vengeful she is. Sure, she talks of Ned Stark, but if she wants to avoid his bones being burried inside the crypts because he didn't bring her husband's bones back, then how vengeful is she inclined towards Ramsay who she believes killed her nephew Domeric. Roose's sole actual allies inside WF were the Freys and he sent them out to battle Stannis... a huge mistake, a strategical mistake. Camping in a burned ruin with no winter stock with an army of +6000 men and +1000 horses is also a strategic fuck up. If Roose had thought any of this through he would have realized that he should have let Stannis take WF with no food inside at all and cut off any possible supply lines to WF. He wouldn't even need to besiege WF. But he didn't think things through. He simply raced for WF with whatever he had along. And no, I don't expect Roose to have thought of ravens. He's been too confident and complacant, and imo just expected there to be ravens at WF. 

Again, how can Roose request anyone to send ravens from any other location from WF when he's trapped in a snow storm himself and has no ravens to send. He sent scouts out - none of them returned. It is not until he receives the Karstark message revealing Stannis's location in a crude make-shift map that we see Roose having an contact with the outside world.

[butterbumps!]

16 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Roose would only have sending ravens IF Ramsay had thought of having the Dreadfort maesters take along a batch of ravens when he set off for Moat Cailin. Or if he sent a letter from Barrowhall to the Dreadfort before setting out for WF to carry a batch of ravens along to WF, or ordered Dustin to take ravens with her. But as I said, Roose would only do the latter 2, if he had thought the situation of WF through. And I don't think he did. Nor would Ramsay. Hence, no ravens at WF, and Stannis solely seems to have ravens the Karstarks did bring to take along (in order to betray info to Roose), but those ravens fly for WF, not CB.

 

It makes total sense that Roose and Rams would exhaust the resources of the other castles before their own, so the fact that we see them sending ravens from the castles they're occupying instead of Dreadfort ones doesn't necessarily tell us anything about their own private stores.

I guess I don't understand why you're so certain that neither Bolton would think to have a supply of their own ravens (not to mention a stock brought from occupied castles) for the haul.    Letter-writing (and control of information flow adjacent to correspondence) is a huge part of Bolton strategy all along, so not having made preparations to enable this strikes me as inconsistent and somewhat implausible.

[sweetsunray]

12 minutes ago, butterbumps! said:

It makes total sense that Roose and Rams would exhaust the resources of the other castles before their own, so the fact that we see them sending ravens from the castles they're occupying instead of Dreadfort ones doesn't necessarily tell us anything about their own private stores.

I guess I don't understand why you're so certain that neither Bolton would think to have a supply of their own ravens (not to mention a stock brought from occupied castles) for the haul.    Letter-writing (and control of information flow adjacent to correspondence) is a huge part of Bolton strategy all along, so not having made preparations to enable this strikes me as inconsistent and somewhat implausible.

Does Ramsay strike you as a guy who thinks things strategically through?

Roose hasn't been at the Dreadfort for over a year, more like 2 years. He was at HH, where he used ravens. Then he traveled to the Twins, where he used Twins' ravens. Then he travelered through the Neck to Barrowton, where he used Dustin ravens. Any ravens he may have personally brought south with him to the RL would also have been used up. And the only way you can get ravens that for exampel can fly to CB, once you're out of them, is to have a NW-brother put ravens in cages, saddle up and ride to wherever you are. Well, Jon wasn't going to help Roose, Ramsay or the Dreadfort either.

I repeat that Roose does not seem to have thought things and the situation through very well and is relying on what the allies have and brought, but they aren't really allies, and he simply did not expect WF's rookery to be such a disaster. That's what you get when your strategy is to exhaust the resources of your allies before your own.

I can't prove it for the moment... but the complete absence of communication from WF in Theon's POV, Dustin's remark on grey rats, the emphasis on the destroyed rookery and ravens in the heart tree, Karstark only bringing ravens flying for WF leads me to suspect that Roose has no ravens to send to anywhere from WF.

[butterbumps!]

4 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Does Ramsay strike you as a guy who thinks things strategically through?

well, yes, actually.  He and Roose seem to have been in close communication working together this whole time, playing the long con.   For one example, without having had close communication and some degree of self control and strategic ability, he'd not have known the importance of sparing the Frey boys during his Winterfell taking, a taking that incidentally involved his luring Houses out with correspondence (he laments to Theon that Manderly didn't take the bait.)

All I'm trying to say is that it probably should not be assumed that the Boltons would not have made preparations to correspond with various locations, most critically, in light of all the correspondence they've been doing all series, as well as Roose's obsession with information transmission control that we see in DwD, and which is brought to our attention very overtly mere chapters prior to the Pink Letter's arrival.  

 

 

[The Truth]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

What I think happened, considering everything we know, is that the battle is done, that Stannis's trap worked and the Freys were lost in the Lake, that Ramsay arrived thereafter and engaged in a brief but bloody battle with Stannis's forces, during which he captured Stannis's sword, before being forced to retreat due to suddenly being outnumbered after the loss of the 1500 Freys.

Ramsay retreated to Winterfell. (The seven days of battle comes from Stannis being 3 days from Winterfell. So 3 days there, one day of battle, 3 days back, gives you seven days).

So Ramsay is now stuck in Winterfell again, bloodied and weakened, but not defeated. He has lost his link to legitimacy with the loss of "Arya Stark", and the situation in Winterfell is getting explosive. From some captives from the battle of Ice, he knows that Stannis sent Jeyne Pool off to the Wall. For some reason he seems to think that Theon went there too. Maybe he just assumes that because they were last seen escaping together.

He has captured Mance. But thanks to Ramsay's weakened - and fast deteroriating - position, Mance has some leverage, which is all that can save him from a flaying. So shrewd as he is, he uses this leverage to help Ramsay craft the letter, promising him the help of thousands of Wildlings to bolster his position as his own lords start growing restless and the remainder of Stannis's host remains intact.

So the letter was written by Ramsay with assistance from a captive Mance. And yes, Mance is probably still playing both sides. No doubt he was counting on Mellisandre getting the message, due to something unknown they may have agreed upon off screen, as part of his mission to Winterfell. Maybe she can assist him from afar, through the ruby, or provide some type of magical assistance in a different way.

But that Mance had significant input into the letter seems pretty obvious to me.

wrong wrong and wrong again no offense. everything points to did not happen. 7 days? are you aware of the time line....should reread

 

I even post 100 bullet notes of why its not ramsay and not 1 answer argues against that. disprove any of the points against ramsay that numerous people have made. why use lingo he NEVER has used? george does not put random words to random people

[The Truth]

Sweetsun has nailed in 5 times.

 

And Roose does realized he blundered, he shows fear for the first time in 5 books of no emotion. He has no way to communicate and has no idea the Karstarks are prisoners.

[The Truth]

1 hour ago, kimim said:

OK I think Ramsay sent that letter. Nothing else makes sense:

Stannis: If he wants his wife and kid, why doesn't he just say "Hey, we won!!! I want my dear wife and daughter here so we can celebrate! Send them over, Jon."

Mance: That Mance would be running around, sending letters to Jon is insane. Last we saw him, he was about to be captured by the Boltons. Meanwhile, Stannis's army is outside, and they want Mance, too. If I were Mance, I'd be running for dear life, not sending ravens

Theon: WHY would he write such a letter? What's he gaining?

 

Finally: Everyone's taking it for granted that Jon would go to Winterfell after reading the letter. But why would he? There's a snowstorm out there. He only has a few hundred wildlings. The Boltons have won (per the letter) and they're sitting with their allies in Winterfell. Besieging Winterfell under these circumstances would be suicidal, and Jon isn't suicidal. He's practical. He warns Stannis against besieging Dreadfort, and he's not optimistic about Stannis' odds against Winterfell. It would be extraordinarily unlikely for Jon to read that letter, and decide to take on Winterfell with a few hundred wildlings. Stannis would know this. Mance would, too.

The best way to get Jon to do something so against character and suicidal, is to work on his emotions: Tell him they have Arya, and that they're alternately flaying and raping her. With dogs. That would likely get Jon to Winterfell, but that's not what the letter says. The letter says Arya is not at Winterfell...a disastrous thing to say, if you want Jon to commit suicide by Bolton. No, Arya has escaped, so no need to besiege Winterfell to save her. If his requirements are not met, Ramsay will leave the safety of Winterfell, and head north to Castle Black--so again, no need to besiege Winterfell. Best way of dealing with that one would be to take a couple of hundred wildlings and waylay Ramsay on the road, where he will be far more vulnerable than he was in Winterfell.

The only writer that makes sense is the obvious: Ramsay. He's making impossible demands. When these are not met, Ramsay has an excuse to move north, and capture Castle Black. He can do so easily, as the place can't be defended from the south. So for me, the mystery isn't the identity of the author , but how much of the letter is true or false. Did the Boltons really capture Stannis? Do they really have Mance? Did Manderly rebel? What happened?

Ramsay makes the least sense. Thankfully majority see that after how many obvious points have been made. Unless grrm just puts random words to random people and does not have specific characters with repeating traits