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Military Strength of the pre-conquest world near end of Bleeding Years


Leonardo

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I'm running a game over at atlas forums and I'm currently getting some baseline numbers for military strength of the regions of the world that are currently playable and wanted some input on these numbers. Most are balanced in terms of it being a game and taking into account recent history, but I'd like to keep as much real world(lol) numbers involved as makes sense. Whatcha think? Also a link to said game: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=235194.msg5036276#msg5036276

 

EMPIRE OF NEW VALYRIA
60,000 slave soldiers with a capacity to introduce 50,000 more at need
10,000 Sellswords broken amongst three companies
4,000 men of the noble guard in the black walls of Old Volantis
8,000 Myrish Conscripts
6,000 Lysene Conscripts
750 warships of varying sizes
1000 trade ships

THE STORMLANDS
34,000 to be levied
2,000 Royal guard

THE REACH
28,000 to be levied(this number will grow as the game goes on and the Reach recovers from war)
1,800 Oldtown City Watch
2,500 Royal guard
100 War Galleys
400 Trade ships

THE ROCK
34,000 to be levied
1500 Lannisport City Watch
2,000 Royal Guard
50 War Galleys

THE VALE
32,000 to be levied
1000 Gulltown City Watch
1,800 Royal Guard
25 War Galleys

DORNE
20,000 to be levied
400 Plankytown watchmen
1400 Royal Guard

THE IRON ISLES
50,000 to be levied(18,000 from the Isles, 32,000 from the Riverlands and Crownlands holdings)
10,000 work slaves
3,000 Royal Guard
200 War Galleys
500 Longships

THE NORTH
38,000 to be levied
800 White Harbor city watch
2,500 Royal Guard
50 merchant ships galleys

DRAGONSTONE
1600 men to be levied(800 from Dragonstone, 400 from Driftmark, 200 from Claw Isle)
150 Noble Guard
40 War Galley

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The numbers seem off to me. In TWOIAF it mentions that the 55000 Lannister-Gardner army was the largest the continent had seen till then so that should serve as a good baseline. As for specifics:

The Stormlands should be lower. At that time the Stormlands were in a state of decline, ringed in by enemies, one of which, Harren the Black, probably had his eyes bent on conquering them once Harrenhal was complete. Probably 20-25 thousand.

The Reach is the most populous and fertile and since it made up a larger portion of the Lannister-Gardner army at the Field of Fire I'd say it should be between 30-35 thousand.

The Westerlands should be lower. Between 23 to 28 thousand. No way in hell does it have more men than the Reach.

The Vale should be lower. Between 25-28 thousand. More than the Westerlands but less than the Reach.

The Iron Isles seem about right though I do need to point out the Iron Isles didn't control the Crownlands at the time. They belonged to no king at that time in fact.

Dorne seems about correct though maybe a bit less since it is the least populated of the mainland regions. So 18 thousand?

The North should be less than the Reach (population density) but more than the other regions (on account of sheer size) so maybe 30 thousand?

Dragonstone is nowhere near that strong around the time of the Conquest. In fact when Aegon I launched his conquest he landed with between 200 to 2000 men (the wiki gives an exact figure of 1600).

As for the Empire of New Valyria I'm going to assume it refers to Volantis. Since we know so little all I can say is that there should be, in my opinion, an equal if not larger force of freed-men soldiers as well.

Hope this helps.

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The Reach just came out of war with the Stormlands and lost both it and the head to Argilac, which is one reason its numbers are low but will soon bounce back. The West is probably more populated than the Vale but less than the Riverlands(Harren is disliked though). Harren does control part of the crownlands as he is over Duskendale and Rosby at this time apparently. Argilac is younger at this time and not quite so old as he is during conquest though still very experienced, along with still controlling a good portion of the lands he will soon lose to Harren. Volantis has 5 slaves for every free man so I think mostly slave soldiers makes sense

 

Also to take into account is that the major houses probably didn't have a huge amount of time to levy men once Aegon started making his moves; a lot of this was happening pretty fast and they may have been able to raise more(I assume this stance)

 

I'll adjust the numbers for Aegon for sure though as that makes sense and make some other tweaks, thanks much for the input :D

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8 hours ago, Leonardo said:

Also to take into account is that the major houses probably didn't have a huge amount of time to levy men once Aegon started making his moves; a lot of this was happening pretty fast and they may have been able to raise more(I assume this stance)

Actualy, it took two years from Aegon landed to His coronation in Oldtown and he sent out letters about His intentions before he even landed. So the major houses had more than enough time to raise soilders. I think they simply underestimated the dragons and the threat from Aegon. It looks like it was just Torrhen Stark and mabye Argilac, who asebeled most or all of their forces.

 

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EMPIRE OF NEW VALYRIA
60,000 slave soldiers with a capacity to introduce 50,000 more at need
10,000 Sellswords broken amongst three companies
4,000 men of the noble guard in the black walls of Old Volantis
8,000 Myrish Conscripts
6,000 Lysene Conscripts
750 warships of varying sizes
1000 trade ships

We have no clue, but they were able to take over Lys and Myr, so might as well.

THE STORMLANDS
30,000 to be levied
2,000 Royal guard

Numbers should be higher. Aegon had 1,300-1,600 men when he started his war (Selyse says that Stannis has more men than Aegon had when he launched his war but no dragons in ASOS, when Stannis has 1,300 men on Dragonstone and 200-300 at Storm's End). He started his campaign in the Crownlands, gaining several thousands more, and had taken most of the men of the Riverlands from the Ironborn. Most of his host was used for the invasion of the Stormlands, and despite the Stormlands having forces locked to the harassed Cape Wrath and the Dornish Marches that were attacked by pirates from the Stepstones and the Dornish raiding parties (respectively), the Stormlander host was twice the size. If the Riverlands had 32,000 men, and let's say that Aegon took ~16,000 of those and added ~4,000 of his own men (from Dragonstone and what would be the Crownlands), the Stormlander host would be ~40,000 strong even without including the men who were forced to stay to defend Cape Wrath and the Dornish Marches. The quality as well was better, considering that the Stormlands had 4 times as many knights and heavy horse as the Targ host. 

The tone of the Wold Book is that the Stormlands were in decline, with a brief period where Argilac had reverted this, but now he was old. But this is a bit of a strech, the Stormlands were pretty much at the best point in time military-wise since the loss of the Riverlands. The Stormlands had repelled a Dornish invasion, sent a host that defeated the advancing Volantene conquest host in Essos, and had won a decisive victory against the power of the Reach all within living memory. At this point in time it's clearly a powerhouse. The Last Storm was a battle where a strong defensive position, dragons, and a titanic single combat when Argilac was already wounded and tired, broke the power of the Stormlands, it was still by far the strongest single opponent in Aegon's war.

THE REACH
28,000 to be levied(this number will grow as the game goes on and the Reach recovers from war)
3,000 Oldtown City Watch
2,500 Royal guard
100 War Galleys
400 Trade ships

Seems fine. Upper limit (once numbers fully regenerate) at ~50-60k? Oldtown city watch seems too large, considering that KL had 2,000 during AGOT and is larger than Oldtown.

THE ROCK
34,000 to be levied
4,000 Lannisport City Watch
2,000 Royal Guard
50 War Galleys

Seems fine. Lannisport city watch should be smaller than Oldtown's, again the city being smaller.

THE VALE
32,000 to be levied
2,500 Gulltown City Watch
1,800 Royal Guard
10 War Galleys

Gulltown city watch should be smaller than Oldtown's, again the city being smaller. Perhaps a bit more ships?

DORNE
20,000 to be levied
400 Plankytown watchmen
1400 Royal Guard

Seems fine.

THE IRON ISLES
50,000 to be levied(18,000 from the Isles, 32,000 from the Riverlands and Crownlands holdings)
10,000 work slaves
3,000 Royal Guard
200 War Galleys
500 Longships

Seems fine.

THE NORTH
38,000 to be levied
1,500 White Harbor city watch
2,500 Royal Guard
10 War Galleys

Seems fine. Though no proper war ships since Bran the Burner. Perhaps replace with ~50 merchant ships?

DRAGONSTONE
4000 men to be levied(2000 from Dragonstone, 1300 from Driftmark, 700 from Claw Isle)
400 Noble Guard
40 War Galleys

As mentioned, Dragonstone, Driftmark, Claw Isle + forces from Bar Emmon and Massey were in total 1,300-1,600 troops. Also, 3 adult dragons.

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New Valyria got no proper sources, I'll skip them.

 

Stormlands: 50,000 (they included the Crownlands as well) with 50-70 (smaller) wargalleys.

The Reach: 100,000 men as an upper limit, with 100-200 (smaller) wargalleys.

Westerlands: 40,000 men with 50-60 (smaller) wargalleys.

Vale: 50,000 men with 50-100 (smaller) wargalleys (which would later be engaged by Visenya).

Dorne: 20,000-30,000 men.

Iron Islands: 70,000-80,000 (including the Riverlands - assuming nobody needs to be kept on repression duty) and 1,000-2,000 longships.

The North: ~70,000 men. Projecting 35.000 men 2,000 miles from Winterfell and all that. Long recruitment phase necessary though.

Dragonstone: 1,500 men, with maybe ten wargalleys.

 

A couple dozen longships per region as well, but nothing particularly noteworthy beyond the Ironborns massive numbers.

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44 minutes ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

New Valyria got no proper sources, I'll skip them.

 

Stormlands: 50,000 (they included the Crownlands as well) with 50-70 (smaller) wargalleys.

The Reach: 100,000 men as an upper limit, with 100-200 (smaller) wargalleys.

Westerlands: 40,000 men with 50-60 (smaller) wargalleys.

Vale: 50,000 men with 50-100 (smaller) wargalleys (which would later be engaged by Visenya).

Dorne: 20,000-30,000 men.

Iron Islands: 70,000-80,000 (including the Riverlands - assuming nobody needs to be kept on repression duty) and 1,000-2,000 longships.

The North: ~70,000 men. Projecting 35.000 men 2,000 miles from Winterfell and all that. Long recruitment phase necessary though.

Dragonstone: 1,500 men, with maybe ten wargalleys.

 

A couple dozen longships per region as well, but nothing particularly noteworthy beyond the Ironborns massive numbers.

Whoa whoa whoa. You can't leave us for months on end and then just come back and expect everything to be normal. Court us baby ;)

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A key basis for comparison is the host sizes raised by the various Kings against Aegon the Conqueror.

For totally unsubstantiated reasons, North-detractors like to suggest that Torhenn raised almost his entire strength against Aegon, whilst the Lannisters and Gardeners raised barely half of their respective strengths for the Field of Fire.

Well, as I have said before, this is not stated explicitly anywhere in the text, nor has Martin hinted at any such scenario. In fact, given the vast distances and logistical challenges Torhenn had to face compared to the King's of the Rock and the Reach, and the known difficulty the Kings in the North have in keeping a host of significant size gathered together in one place for long, the more likely scenario is that 30,000 men is pretty much the largest single host that the North can gather together and sustain in one place before HAVING to march, or else the host would start bleeding away again.

The resources required to feed and support such a host in one place are simply not sustainable for very long. Robb could not even feed 12,000 men at Winterfell for more than a few weeks, before he was forced to march South. Imagine Torhenn having to keep 30,000 men together, fed and supplied.

Then marching them all past the Neck over hundreds of miles of countryside - some having already marched 1000 miles from the Last Hearth or Karhold or Bear Island...well, it is a logistical nightmare.

So will the North ever raise more than  30,000 men in a single army - I doubt it. However, does that mean that this taps out their full strength? No, it does not. It simply means that if they want more men they could likely only do so once the first host has been disbanded or lost. And those new men would then be gathered together again, under similar logistical constraints as the first host.

Frankly, I am surprised and impressed that Torhenn even got to 30k men in his host. I would have thought that 20k is about the maximum practical size for a single Northern host to be projected over that distance. In the real world medieval armies of 30,000 size were few and far between, and required immense resources to sustain.

Consider further that the Field of Fire's 55,000 men were the largest host EVER raised in Westeros up to that point. And that required a combined Reach and Rock alliance to achieve. So Torhenn's 30k host was likely a very large host for ANY single kingdom to achieve, even for those who face far easier logistical challenges than Torhenn did. For Torhenn to do so was doubly impressive.

The North almost certainly has a strength of 45k or more, but 25k are likely the most you will see in one army beyond the Neck. Torhenn's 30k was an anomaly

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I think those are pretty generous numbers for regions almost constantly at war without any proper roads. I'd even eager the conquest allowed for a greater proliferation of knowledge and Its wielders aka maesters than ever before. What Gardener king in their right mind would ever allow Maesters to populate the foreign kingdoms?

 

Hence why the numbers of this period are low though I'll give you mods of agreement on say a wotfk host.

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Apparently any Gardener king, since the Maesters were widespread long before the Conquest. They are explicitly mentioned in Torrhen's host, for example.

Roads weren't the bottleneck for military operations either. Not on that technological level.

 

There were no technological revolutions nor disastrous catastrophies between the Conquest and today, the numbers won't vary much.

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7 hours ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

Apparently any Gardener king, since the Maesters were widespread long before the Conquest. They are explicitly mentioned in Torrhen's host, for example.

Roads weren't the bottleneck for military operations either. Not on that technological level.

 

There were no technological revolutions nor disastrous catastrophies between the Conquest and today, the numbers won't vary much.

Eh the host sizes during the wotfk are so drastically different from the field of fire though, which was the largest host the continent had seen up to that point, so something must be up.

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Not at all. Apart from Renly's host (which never marched close to contested territory), no host ever numbered above 20,000 men.

 

The bottleneck is feeding such a large number of men in any given place, not what the regions could theoretically recruit. Even with slow and vulnerable wagons drawn by oxen, you cannot transport more than ~250 kg food per oxen - and the oxen require food as well.

Food not grown inside a radius of maybe 30 to 50 km may as well be on the moon.

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