What is Doran's Master Plan, and what were his previous plans?

[Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren]

Now, we caught a few glimpses of it with what he said about arranging Viserys and Arianne marriage. But it can't be all that,  as apparently Doran and Oberyn worked together in secret for years to bring the end of house Lannister. Doran was the grass, where Oberyn hided in and Oberyn was the snake, the one who striked.  as we know Oberyn joined a sellsword company in Essos and also knew a great deal about poisons. There is the plausible theory that Oberyn might have poisoned Tywin. We also know about Quentin.  But beyond that, is there anything else we can speculate that might had been part of Doran's plans. Considering the grass and the snake analogy, perhaps it has to do with Oberyn and what he did in Essos.

At this point I should mention Preston Jacobs Dornish Master Plan video. Unfortunately it gets more and more and more convoluted, and complicated. There is a lot of throw shit at the wall and see what sticks so a lot of that could be false, but the guy might have discovered some things or be on to something in some of his points.

[dreem24]

I get what you are saying only i don't agree the entire plan to travel/around magic bits...  It has so many moving pieces that just... everyone has been working for Dorne from the beginning?  Even if somehow thats true how no one(Tywin) got any wind of it?

Oberyn Martell would have been the most important person in such a plan and for all his swearing vengence nobody though him a threat and had him poison/assasinated...

 

I dunno it's possible but i hope it istn true...

so start planning some stuff on the other side of the world and in XX years we will kill the lannisters...  Also all those magical people are working/loyal to us because we are/have????

 

[Nyrhex]

Doran has no "Master Plan". I can't believe how many people still insist that there is despite literally everything telling us that there isn't. 

Doran and Oberyn were the same people who only sent 10,000 men to war because of the way Aerys treated Elia, despite the rebel army making it's way to the capital where she and her children stayed.

Oberyn is overrated as fuck. He murders a man at 16, goes to "exile" which lasts about 2 years before he gets bored of it and goes to the Citadel to study. He gets bored of that too in a few years. He travels the free cities and is back in Dorne for Robert's Rebellion, probably sooner considering that he needs to be there with Sarella when she is little. He does fuck all there during the war, then tries and fails to gather support to a new war where Dorne is alone. That fails, unsurprisingly considering that one of the strongest bannermen there hates his guts, and is the one in control of one of the two passes. From there Oberyn goes to Braavos and signs a deal with a knight and 4 servants protecting Viserys and Dany that if they should ever luck upon an army, Dorne would be right there, if they agree to a marriage. Oberyn then returns to Dorne (after Quentyn is forced to become a page to Yronwood in return), and he only had limited time to be a sellsword and establish a company during all of this. You know what that sounds like? Like a generic rich kid who likes to play at things. He liked to play at being a scholar, got bored. He liked to play at being a sellsword, he got bored. He liked teaching he daughters to be warriors like fucking Xena, so now they walk around with weapons everywhere like psychos. 

Doran during this time has done fuck all aside from denying his daughter marriages that would remove this asset, fully intenting for her to marry Viserys if and when the idiot ever stumbles on an army.

Then luck extends her arm and gifts Dorne with Myrcella, and the Lannisters offering Dorne an official position in the govenrment. What does Doran ask of Oberyn? 

"He went beyond anything I asked of him. 'Take the measure of this boy king and his council, and make note of their strengths and weaknesses,' I told him, on the terrace. We were eating oranges. 'Find us friends, if there are any to be found. Learn what you can of Elia's end, but see that you do not provoke Lord Tywin unduly,' those were my words to him. Oberyn laughed, and said, 'When have I provoked any man . . . unduly? You would do better to warn the Lannisters against provoking me.' He wanted justice for Elia, but he would not wait—"

Oberyn can't help himself. He stumbles on the assasination of Joffrey, and jumps on the chance to kill Gregor in single combat, and fulfill the revenge fantasy that he had for the past 17 years. Aaaaaand, he died. This does not go in the way of any plan because there is none. Tywin was not poisened, the theory is based entirely on one poisen that shuts down the bowls. But Tywin was on the shitter and was loose the instant he died, which points that there was no problem with his bowls, he was about to shit anyway. It's a theory entirely created from the same thought process in the OP "surely this can't be it, right?". Well, yeah, it totally can be. Considering that everything we have points to it, yes, this is the "Dornish Master Plan". Wait for years on end hoping that some other force with a huge army would magically come to your side so that you could actually have the power to do something. 

What does Doran do next? He learns that Viserys is dead (and well done on the flow of information there, he knows what happens with his one and only shot only via tales from merchants), and so sends the alternative, Quentyn, to get Dany. Quentyn actually does more than either Doran or Oberyn ever manage. The shit hits him right from the start. Instead of giving Quentyn the huge book about dragons to read on his way, he gives it to Arianne. The Maester that has all the knowledge about dragons dies on the way to Essos, the easiest part of the voyage, where Doran should still have allies. Quentyn arrives and has to ditch his funds, take ship with sellswords, fight a battle and survive deserting and bribing his way to Dany. There he promises her 50,000 Dornish spears, which shows that his father kept Dorne's true power secret even from his own son and who he thought would be his heir once Arianne becomes queen. Being refused, Quentyn bribes a sellsword company and tries to steal a dragon, while having practically no lore of dragons to figure out how are his chances in this.

And what does Doran do when the Golden Company lands? He has two hosts in the passes for 2 years now, dwindeling every day due to inaction and needing the hands back home. He sends Arianne to see if she can see the resemblence to her dead infant cousin, and if so, Dorne would go to war with fraction of he host Doran had hoped for. You know why? Because he has no plan, he just sees the blood oranges plop to the ground, over-ripe, and realises that he missed the biggest chance he had back when he passed over supporting Renly or Stannis and sided with the Lannisters instead. He is never going to get a better shot, and any talk of "there must be some greater plan" is literally ignoring everything in the books pointing to Doran simply hoping to luck out and missing the best chance he had.

You know why he passed over that chance? Because he cares for revenge only half as much as he cares for power. He conditioned aiding the Targs on a marriage, like Dorne had with Elia to Rhaegar. If Aegon was legit, he is Elia's son, and Doran just might make a deal to marry him and Arianne to make sure the next in line has Martell blood. You know what Renly also had alongside his massive host? A Tyrell wife. Already married, and to an old foe of the Martells. Revenge for Elia took a backseat there, because there is no way Doran is going to bring death and destruction on the Lannisters if it means that he can't marry his daughter to the king.

 

That's what "Doran plays to win" means. Doran has no "Master Plan", he just has his eyes set on a goal. An unrealistic goal, but he is going to wait and hope that some day he is going to luck the fuck out and get a shot at it. And Aegon falling to his lap just might be his only chance left.

[SeanF]

Keeping Arianne out of the loop was a bad, almost fatal, mistake.

[Dijkstra]

The whole Quentyn mission was a complete fiasco -> nothing i would call master plan 

I think the only Lord who has something like a "Master Plan" is Leyton Hightower

And GRRM was smart enough in this case to hold him back for the finale

[Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren]

Doran says:

 

“I am not blind, nor deaf. I know that you all believe me weak, frightened, feeble. Your father knew me better. Oberyn was ever the viper. Deadly, dangerous, unpredictable. No man dared tread on him. I was the grass. Pleasant, complaisant, sweet-smelling, swaying with every breeze. Who fears to walk upon the grass? But it is the grass that hides the viper from his enemies and shelters him until he strikes. Your father and I worked more closely than you know … but now he is gone. The question is, can I trust his daughters to serve me in his place?”

Before that he says: "Dorne still has friends at court. Friends who tell us things we were not meant to know." which is where he talks about the attempt on Trystane. So he might have spies in the court.

Next, he sends the sandsnakes to play various roles in Kingslanding.

Like many characters his plans might fail or looked with detail might not appear that great, but I don't think it is fair to believe there is nothing going on, other than lucking on with Aegon. Doesn't mean he is a great planner of course, even if he has plans.  We already know of some of his plans that include the sandsnakes, but it isn't necessary the case, that all he shared to them is the full extend of his plans. Even just the sandsnakes involvement still calls for speculation on the full extend of what he plans to do with them there. 

He sends Lady Nim to be his voice and ear in the small council and he says to Tyene to get close to the new High Septon and tells hem that if certain things come to pass, he will send message to each of them, with new instructions. Specifically he says: “If … if certain things should come to pass, I will send word to each of you. Things can change quickly in the game of thrones.”

 

BTW Nyrhex, you have a tendency to look at events in the book from a more meta out of the world perspective disregarding GRRM's intentions. Which isn't necessarily wrong, GRRM might want us to get the message that say Stannis  appointing Imry Florent was wrong but from your own understanding of things, it wasn't the case, but that shouldn't lead one to the conclusion that GRRM isn't pointing at some direction. In the case of the cyvasse fan Doran, is that he is one of the schemer and planner characters of the series. 

[Nyrhex]

49 minutes ago, Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren said:

Like many characters his plans might fail or looked with detail might not appear that great, but I don't think it is fair to believe there is nothing going on, other than lucking on with Aegon. Doesn't mean he is a great planner of course, even if he has plans.  We already know of some of his plans that include the sandsnakes, but it isn't necessary the case, that all he shared to them is the full extend of his plans. Even just the sandsnakes involvement still calls for speculation on the full extend of what he plans to do with them there. 

He sends Lady Nim to be his voice and ear in the small council and he says to Tyene to get close to the new High Septon and tells hem that if certain things come to pass, he will send message to each of them, with new instructions. Specifically he says: “If … if certain things should come to pass, I will send word to each of you. Things can change quickly in the game of thrones.”

 

BTW Nyrhex, you have a tendency to look at events in the book from a more meta out of the world perspective disregarding GRRM's intentions. Which isn't necessarily wrong, GRRM might want us to get the message that say Stannis  appointing Imry Florent was wrong but from your own understanding of things, it wasn't the case, but that shouldn't lead one to the conclusion that GRRM isn't pointing at some direction. In the case of the cyvasse fan Doran, is that he is one of the schemer and planner characters of the series. 

I did not say that there was nothing going on, I was just pointing to the glaringly obvious fact that people refuse to accept, that Doran's "plan" as laid out infront of us is more "goal" than actual "plan". There are barely any steps, there is intention and hope, but there are hardly any actions taken on the part of Dorne that attempt to steer events into it's advantage. Viserys and later Dany are the big hope, that some day they would bring an army and would help Dorne. Aside from making the contract, Dorne had done practically nothing to help speed this along. 

Yes, things can change rapidly in the game of thrones, but what changes has Dorne been responsible to? Did they try and send some funds to Viserys when he was courting sellsword companies? Did they send someone to watch out for him? Did they have a plan for the war to come aside from Blitzkrieg through the Dornish Marches and straight to Oldtown? How on earth are they going to take on the power of the Reach, the Stormlands and the Lannisters? This alone seems impossible, attacking the rest of the continent with 40,000 Dothraki Screamers is suicidal.

And yes, I look at thing from a meta perspective. But so do those who seek out this fabled "Master Plan" based on GRRM's "Doran plays to win". That line can mean a bunch of things, but people have locked on the meaning that Doran's plan, as we see it, can't possibly be all there is. But from the books you see how the Dornish plan is practically non-existant. Doran is not bringing the Sand Snakes into an existing plan, he is making things up as he goes along. And the friends at court informing him of Cersei's plan are clearly not enough, that he had to send Oberyn with clear orders to seek out more information, and later sends his daughters to do the same. That looks bad, that looks like the plan he had been working on for the past 17 years is only now shaping up from an intention into the pre-planning phase of intel gathering. Sorry, but it does not look like a "Master" plan at all, and I don't see why you get to claim that it was GRRM's intention that we give Doran credit for being a master at intrigue when we constantly see him fail in the books. 

[Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren]

12 minutes ago, Nyrhex said:

I did not say that was nothing going on, I was just pointing to the galringly obvious fact that people refuse to accept, that Doran's "plan" is laid out infron of us, and it is more "goal" than actual "plan". There are barely any steps, there is intention and hope, but there are hardly any actions taken on the part of Dorne that attempt to steer events into it's advantage. Viserys and later Dany are the big hope, that some day they would bring an army and would help Dorne. Aside from making the contract, Dorne had done practically nothing to help speed this along. 

Yes, things can change rapidly in the game of thrones, but what changes has Dorne been responsible to? Did they try and send some funds to Viserys when he was courting sellsword companies? Did they send someone to watch out for him? Did they have a plan for the war to come aside from Blitzkrieg through the Dornish Marches and straight to Oldtown? How on earth are they going to take on the power of the Reach, the Stormlands and the Lannisters? This alone seems impossible, attacking the rest of the continent with 40,000 Dothraki Screamers is suicidal.

And yes, I look at thing from a meta perspective. But so do those who seek out this fabled "Master Plan" based on GRRM's "Doran plays to win". That line can mean a bunch of things, but people have locked on the meaning that Doran's plan, as we see it, can't possibly be all there is. But from the books you see how the Dornish plan is practically non-existant. Doran is not bringing the Sand Snakes into an existing plan, he is making things up as he goes along. And the friends at court informing him of Cersei's plan are clearly not enough, that he had to send Oberyn with clear orders to seek out more information, and later sends his daughters to do the same. That looks bad, that looks like the plan he had been working on for the past 17 years is only now shaping up from an intention into the pre-planning phase of intel gathering. Sorry, but it does not look like a "Master" plan at all, and I don't see why you get to claim that it was GRRM's intention that we give Doran credit for being a master at intrigue when we constantly see him fail in the books. 

I am not too fixated on the idea of Doran's master plan or calling his plans as master plan. Doran is a schemer and portrayed as such by GRRM but not necessarily a successful one.

I do think he has more planned that he has revealed in the few scenes he talked about his plans with sandsnakes or Arianne, and I think it will be interesting to talk about that.  Or at least talking about the sandsnakes role in the capital, how he will handle Aegon, that sort of stuff.

If you don't think so, fine.  Basically, you can be in the category A. Doran has some plans but they are not necessarily great B. Have a more ambitious view of what Doran is planning. This thread isn't only about talking about B and those who think of Doran as a master planner.

I just don't think the nothing is going on approach is correct here or interesting. If you don't think he has done anything in the past, what about now?  Who is his friend in the court for example?

[Nyrhex]

1 hour ago, Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren said:

I just don't think the nothing is going on approach is correct here or interesting. If you don't think he has done anything in the past, what about now?  Who is his friend in the court for example?

Again, I did not say that there was no plan, I said that it looks like a really poor one.

1. Sign contract in Braavos.

2. ???

3. Viserys shows up with an army, marries my daughter, and we launch a war against the rest of Westeros, defeat the Lannisters and exact revenge for Elia and her children.

That would place me in Category A.

Who is his friends at court? I think maybe Varys. That would sorta make sense and would work the best as a middle ground here. Varys is an old guard Targ loyalists (at least in Doran's view), watches on Viserys and gives Doran the same reports he gives Robert, and after ~15 years he and his buddy Illyrio Mopatis manage to get Viserys an army. Doran just has to play his cards right (as in, like Varys tells him to), and soon the rest of the realm would be in chaos enough that a Dothraki horde and the Dornish hosts, called upon by the throne no less to avoid suspicion, would launch thier invasion. After Viserys is wed to Arianne in a very public wedding, of course. 

Now this plan sort of works with a "Master Plan" theory, as in Dorne is not just waiting for good furtune, and it's friends at court are the ones doing most of the work, rather than simply being some common spies. Varys and Illyrio never banked on Dany returning, nor Viserys. They fed Doran false info because they want (f)Aegon. Aegon is not going to bring many bannermen by calling himself a Blackfyre. Remember Daemon III? His invasion had very limited support, because the lords though, and rightly so, that he Blackfyres were done for.

But if Aegon is a Targ, the loyalists may go with Aerys' decree that Viserys was to inherit him. That does not work well for Varys, he does not want to split his possible supporters, not when he is trying to pass off and imposter. So Viserys must be pushed far away, or killed off at some point. What works in Varys' favor here is that (f)Aegon is meant to be born to Elia Martell, so there is just as much reason to think that the Martells would jump on the chance to support him. That Targ loyalists, as few or as many as they may be, would have but one leader to rally around. To that plan Varys later worked Dany, once she was known to have dragons. That right there is gold as propaganda, and any bit of extra firepower (pun intended) is welcome, since there is only so much Varys can do to weaken the realm before the invasion.

So Quentyn goes to marry Danny at the same time as (f)Aegon? I think Quentyn going to marry Danny is where Doran made a move without informing Varys. This was not part of the plan, but right now Varys is not really easy to reach, and the entire point is that he is keeping (f)Aegon secret even from Doran right to the last minute.

I think this is possible, explains pretty much all the big issues and the only part of it that is a shortage in communication is understandable considering the motives of the two sides and the intentional misdirection on Varys' part.

[norwaywolf123]

There was no master plan. Just wait until Viserys landed and lords like Tyrell and river and crown lords rose up with him. MAybe if Bobby B found out about Cersei and Jaime he would kill them and then Tywin and Mace would support viserys. Probably the riverlands aswell.

[aryagonnakill#2]

Dorans biggest mistake in my mind was not sending someone to stay with Vierys and Danaerys so they always knew Dorne was waiting for them.

[BalerionTheCat]

Doran was overly cautious. IMO, his plan was no more than returning Viserys to the IT. And marry him with Arianne if necessary. But he didn't want to look supporting or helping Viserys. Not before he had a real chance to win the IT. He may have sent Oberyn to Essos, to secretly recruit sell-swords. He may also have secretly inquired about which house would support Viserys. But IMO, none of this went far or look promising. His plans were never more than vague hopes for the future. At best he was seeing Robert's inadequacy to the task, and was hoping for a movement in favor or Viserys return.

[Claire of House Thorpe]

On 4/27/2016 at 9:54 AM, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Dorans biggest mistake in my mind was not sending someone to stay with Vierys and Danaerys so they always knew Dorne was waiting for them.

That annoyed me to no end, to be honest. The least he could have done was keep an eye on them instead of letting them wander around Essos, alone and friendless.

[BalerionTheCat]

12 hours ago, Claire of House Thorpe said:

That annoyed me to no end, to be honest. The least he could have done was keep an eye on them instead of letting them wander around Essos, alone and friendless.

It would have come to Robert thru Varys little birds (so would think Doran). Stranger is Varys and Illrio doing nothing while they had their master plan with Aegon.

[aryagonnakill#2]

20 minutes ago, BalerionTheCat said:

It would have come to Robert thru Varys little birds (so would think Doran). Stranger is Varys and Illrio doing nothing while they had their master plan with Aegon.

GRRM has said that Varys and Ilyrio don't know of the Dorne marriage contract.

 

13 hours ago, Claire of House Thorpe said:

That annoyed me to no end, to be honest. The least he could have done was keep an eye on them instead of letting them wander around Essos, alone and friendless.

But surely Doran could've sent Areo Hotah, or gotten another Norvosi through his wife Melaria that no one would be able to recognize as Dornish.

[DasallmaechtigeJ]

I also wouldn't support the notion that Doran has a "Master Plan". This would imply that he foresaw or caused all that has happened until now to establish optimal conditions for his endeavour: winning back the IT for the Targaryen/Martell alliance and exterminating House Lannister. 

It is rather like this: Doran had, as it was called earlier goals that he wishes to accomplish. Yet, he needs ideal conditions. To hide from everyone that he is having said goals, he essentially does nothing and tries to keep all doors open to jump on the best chance he gets. Sadly, or if you favor him, gladly, however, Doran has a very passive and cautious personality. he does not want good conditions, he wants the best conditions humaly possible. So he waits, and waits, and waits... 

And as it happens, now opportunity is knocking on his door with full force. He now can choose from 2 Targaryens which both happen to have an army, ready to invade a continent totally devastated by civil war and incompent rulership. So now he sets himself into motion, now he can reach his goals. He does not have a plan, he had a strategy and that was waiting for the perfect moment. And as of yet, this has served him well, the ideal conditions for executing revenge and winning the throne have now arrived. If he will seize this opportunity, however, is an altogether different story...

[BalerionTheCat]

3 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

GRRM has said that Varys and Ilyrio don't know of the Dorne marriage contract.

Yes, they were not knowing each other plans. Doran kept maximum secrecy. The contract was known by very few men: Doran and Oberyn, Willem Darry, the Sealord of Braavos. Maybe no one else. Not even Viserys was aware of it. You can keep such secret easily.

3 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

But surely Doran could've sent Areo Hotah, or gotten another Norvosi through his wife Melaria that no one would be able to recognize as Dornish.

But helping the Targaryens is a different thing. Soon someone would wonder why some Novosi or whatever are helping the beggar king. And step by step they could reach the source. It is only not knowing an information exists which is protection.

[Special Snowflake]

15 hours ago, Claire of House Thorpe said:

That annoyed me to no end, to be honest. The least he could have done was keep an eye on them instead of letting them wander around Essos, alone and friendless.

Agree with this. You don't put your eggs in one basket and than not do anythig. He didn't even have to send some Norvosi to protect them if he was afraid someone might find out. Oberyn was traveling around the world. I'm sure he could have found someone to keep an eye on those kids. I'm sure they would have had a lot more gratitude for someone who helped them. Even if that was limited help. Than, say after 15+ years you just show up with a paper with a promise of mariage and say, you konow we should do this. And I'll support you with an army.

 I don't think ether that he had a master plan per se. For such a thing you need to put some things in motions. Doran just waited for pieces to be put in motion to find his chance to strike. He needed to do more things. To include Arianne for starters. It seems now he has started to play the game. Of the succes, I am afraid to think. I wouldn't want him to fail but I have a feeling that his patience will be his undoing and that all this won't end well for Martells. I hope the books at least prove me wrong