US Election: It's a post-TrumpDay world

[TrackerNeil]

Looks like Ted Cruz is ready to galvanize the race, and by "galvanize the race" I mean "engage in a useless stunt.

[BloodRider]

8 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said:

Looks like Ted Cruz is ready to galvanize the race, and by "galvanize the race" I mean "engage in a useless stunt.

Looks like he is trying to compete with Trump on the shitty business leader demographic.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

If Cruz gets to pick a VP ticket for his campaign, then I want to know who would have been Bernie's running mate. Kucinich?

[Kalbear]

With all due respect, kal, that's your opinion.  I appreciate that he is sticking around to keep the dialogue open for the disenfranchised left. 

 

And his campaign is still stating openly that there exists a path to the nomination. He's still continuing daily attacks on Clinton. His surrogates are still saying the same tired bullshit. I'm getting more twitter beefs than I used to, not fewer. 

 

Yes, it's my opinion, but its one that is happily grounded in fact. The notion that he's sticking around - well, you know that sticking around doesn't, ya know, do anything, right? Him having more delegates at the convention doesn't give him more of a platform to talk. It doesn't give him more time to speak. It doesn't mean that people have to listen to his plans or even include them. And that's assuming that he would be doing that; so far what he's done is attack Clinton, make sure everyone knows that he's not going to back Clinton if he loses, leave the opening of an Independent run there and back all of 3 total candidates in various races, and has done so about a week before they ran (and apparently they all lost). 

 

So yeah, forgive me for  thinking that Sanders isn't particularly interested in doing anything like supporting his policies while avoiding attacks - because so far, he's not done that at all, and his supporters certainly haven't. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

@TrackerNeil

I think you misunderstood what I was trying to say. To your first point, Trump will talk about things other people wouldn't. It's not that he's going to accuse her of things worst than murder, it's that he'll bring it up to her face in a way no one else (except maybe Cruz) would. And to your second point, it has nothing to do with making Democrats not support her (although he has already begun the courtship of Sanders supporters). It's that this election will be so nasty that whoever wins will begin their presidency as damaged goods in some respect. 

@mormont

Starr will look like a candle next to a bonfire when compared to what Trump might do. He knows how to draw attention to himself, and those presidential debates are going to be the most watched ever and by a long shot. God only knows what he will say or do. 

[lokisnow]

Quote

7 hours ago, Fez said:

Barring something extraordinary though, I don't see how anyone can reasonably claim the races aren't over now on both sides.

The Democrat race is over (and has been over since NY). The Republican race is definitely not over yet. That is, it is guaranteed that nobody except Trump can get half the delegates and it is practically certain that nobody can catch up to Trump (Cruz is now roughly 400 delegates behind him), but it is not obvious that Trump will be able to get to 1237 which means that the Republican establishment can still try to take the nomination away from him with convention shenanigans. That said, even Nate Silver seems to be coming around to Trump, albeit with the caveat that Trump needs to do well in Indiana.

Nate Silver's primary model is based on polling the "gut feelings" of a panel of election experts and not actually modeling the delegate allocation rules mathematically and running simulations. This is because he wants lots of clicks, in other words, he's abandoning data to support the horse race narrative.

Sam Wang is modeling the delegate rules and running simulations and even including graphs akin to how Silver has presented data in the past. 

And the result, after last night, Donald Trump now has a 96% chance of getting at least 1237 delegates. The median simulation has him receiving over 1300.

[Kalbear]

Quote

 

Nate Silver's primary model is based on polling the "gut feelings" of a panel of election experts and not actually modeling the delegate allocation rules mathematically and running simulations. This is because he wants lots of clicks, in other words, he's abandoning data to support the horse race narrative.

Sam Wang is modeling the delegate rules and running simulations and even including graphs akin to how Silver has presented data in the past. 

 

Sam Wang's results have been less accurate, however. The idea that Silver's model is flawed because it is trying to drive clicks seems to counterindicate its predictive power. Wang has been complete shit with respect to the Democratic model, and hasn't been much better with the Republican one. 

Wang might be using data but his results haven't actually, ya know, been good.

[Weeping Sore]

I think Sanders realizes he can't win at this point. Honestly, while it's possible Sanders is doing damage to Clinton I think the contest has made her stronger and helped her hone a clearer message. If Clinton continues to rack up impressive victories on the way to the convention, it should help her more than coasting in unopposed.

I think Sanders at this point genuinely dislikes Clinton and genuinely doesn't give a fuck what the Democratic Party thinks of him. Whether he's hanging in for the couple of state victories he might have left, or to make sure Clinton isn't to quick to pivot away from her shifts to the left in the primary, I don't know. I know he doesn't want a Trump presidency, and it doesn't look like Trump has a prayer in November the way the demographics stack up. Most Sanders supporters will come around to voting against Trump in the fall regardless of how they view Hillary.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

So after last night, here is where the Democratic Primary stands:

Clinton needs 18% of the remaining delegates (PD and SD) to win the nomination.

Clinton needs roughly 35% of the remaining pledged delegates to win a majority with them.

This is over. Sanders should just drop out. All he's doing is bleeding resources and hurting Clinton. It's pointless.

 

 

[The Marquis de Leech]

3 minutes ago, Weeping Sore said:

I think Sanders at this point genuinely dislikes Clinton and genuinely doesn't give a fuck what the Democratic Party thinks of him. 

I rather doubt that.

Sanders has his Senate job to consider, He's got it as long as he wants it, but there's no point being in the Senate if you can't achieve anything, and he won't achieve anything by antagonising the Democrats.

[Swordfish]

19 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

 

And his campaign is still stating openly that there exists a path to the nomination. He's still continuing daily attacks on Clinton. His surrogates are still saying the same tired bullshit. I'm getting more twitter beefs than I used to, not fewer. 

 

Yes, it's my opinion, but its one that is happily grounded in fact. The notion that he's sticking around - well, you know that sticking around doesn't, ya know, do anything, right? Him having more delegates at the convention doesn't give him more of a platform to talk. It doesn't give him more time to speak. It doesn't mean that people have to listen to his plans or even include them. And that's assuming that he would be doing that; so far what he's done is attack Clinton, make sure everyone knows that he's not going to back Clinton if he loses, leave the opening of an Independent run there and back all of 3 total candidates in various races, and has done so about a week before they ran (and apparently they all lost). 

 

So yeah, forgive me for  thinking that Sanders isn't particularly interested in doing anything like supporting his policies while avoiding attacks - because so far, he's not done that at all, and his supporters certainly haven't. 

 

i'm not sure we define the word 'fact' in the same way.....

[Swordfish]

6 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

So after last night, here is where the Democratic Primary stands:

Clinton needs 18% of the remaining delegates (PD and SD) to win the nomination.

Clinton needs roughly 35% of the remaining pledged delegates to win a majority with them.

This is over. Sanders should just drop out. All he's doing is bleeding resources and hurting Clinton. It's pointless.

 

 

 

Why is he obligated to help Clinton?  if she's gonna get the nomination anyway, what difference does it make?

You guys seem to be making the argument that it's a failing on his part not to support the status quo, capitulate to 'the way things have always been done'... which...  Well... Duh...  he;s been telling you he doesn't want to do that the whole campaign.

I hope he never drops out, and then runs as an independent.  hell, under those circumstance, i might even vote for him.

 

[The Marquis de Leech]

Just now, Swordfish said:

Why is he obligated to help Clinton?  if she's gonna get the nomination anyway, what difference does it make?

You guys seem to be making the argument that it's a failing on his part not to support the status quo, capitulate to 'the way things have always been done'... which...  Well... Duh...  he;s been telling you he doesn't want to do that the whole campaign.

I hope he never drops out, and then runs as an independent.  hell, under those circumstance, i might even vote for him.

He's obligated to help Clinton because after June, she'll be the only thing standing between Donald Trump and the White House.

 

[Swordfish]

5 minutes ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

He's obligated to help Clinton because after June, she'll be the only thing standing between Donald Trump and the White House.

 

That's certainly the sentiment.  But he's in no way obligated by that, and i would absolutely disagree.  That's exactly the status quo I'm talking about.

You are never going to see any kind of meaningful, qualified candidates as long as people will simply vote 'against the other guy'.

 

[James Arryn]

2 minutes ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

He's obligated to help Clinton because after June, she'll be the only thing standing between Donald Trump and the White House.

 

Do you really think Swordfish doesn't know this? 

What this board is missing is some posters who are guaranteed to vote Democrat make noises about how they're kinda turned on by Cruz, might be tempted to vote for him if he gets the nod, because though they are pretty much entirely opposed to almost every platform the guy has there's just something about him that shows Trump for the fraud he is, and well, yeah...go Cruz, maybe, if I don't vote Democrat like even my neighbour's neighbour's dog knows I will.

 

Just occurred to me that a lot of distopian narratives start with someone like Trump getting into the WH. This is wonderful both because it makes superheroes and/or inhuman hordes more possible AND many conservatives vote in part out of the fear of an impending apocalypse, so this could all neatly dovetail. 

[The Marquis de Leech]

1 minute ago, James Arryn said:

Do you really think Swordfish doesn't know this? 

Clearly he doesn't, seeing as he thinks Sanders should run as an independent in the general.

[Swordfish]

1 minute ago, James Arryn said:

Do you really think Swordfish doesn't know this? 

What this board is missing is some posters who are guaranteed to vote Democrat make noises about how they're kinda turned on by Cruz, might be tempted to vote for him if he gets the nod, because though they are pretty much entirely opposed to almost every platform the guy has there's just something about him that shows Trump for the fraud he is, and well, yeah...go Cruz, maybe, if I don't vote Democrat like even my neighbour's neighbour's dog knows I will.

 

Just occurred to me that a lot of distopian narratives start with someone like Trump getting into the WH. This is wonderful both because it makes superheroes and/or inhuman hordes more possible AND many conservatives vote in part out of the fear of an impending apocalypse, so this could all neatly dovetail. 

It's not just the conservatives.

The fear of the dystopian future/apocalypse if Trump wins is exactly the logic being used by people to call Bernie out for not dropping out of the race.  And exactly the narrative that has so many vapid, spoiled  hollywood types threatening to move to canada if they don't get their way.

[The Marquis de Leech]

4 minutes ago, Swordfish said:

That's certainly the sentiment.  But he's in no way obligated by that, and i would absolutely disagree.  That's exactly the status quo I'm talking about.

You are never going to see any kind of meaningful, qualified candidates as long as people will simply vote 'against the other guy'.

That's the way the voting system works. If you aren't voting for Hillary, you're voting for Donald. Sanders knows that.

Don't like it? Push for a change in the voting system. Until then, you're stuck.

[Swordfish]

1 minute ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

Clearly he doesn't, seeing as he thinks Sanders should run as an independent in the general.

 

As I've already said, i don't consider that reason particularly compelling.

[Swordfish]

1 hour ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

That's the way the voting system works. If you aren't voting for Hillary, you're voting for Donald. Sander knows that.

 

 

Utter nonsense.  you create a false dichotomy here.  i am voting for the person I am voting for.  It is not my responsibility to prevent Donald Trump from becoming president.

 

Quote

Don't like it? Push for  change in the voting system. Until then, you're stuck.

Again as i've already said, attempting to change this is exactly what you are lambasting Bernie for.

i would suggest it is you who are stuck, not me.  because you have not only convinced yourself that you have no choice, you have embraced your lack of choice as the lesser of two evils.

Which is certainly your right.  But i believe we can do better.