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US Election: It's a post-TrumpDay world


TrackerNeil

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12 hours ago, Shryke said:

 

If you really look at what's going on though, the headline is rather misleading. It's basically using the ability to donate to the state party to funnel money back to the DNC and then distribute it back to state parties as the party sees fit to win competitive seats. Basically moving money out of, like, Mass. and into Virginia or something where it's more useful. 

 

Cause that's the way the laws are written?

A better campaign finance system would be nice but this is the one that exists and they need money to win races to change the system.

You're seriously going to defend this?

12 hours ago, Shryke said:

BENGHAZI!! didn't die in a few days.

Again, you are still being ridiculous with the implications. "They keep talking about it so something must be there" is shoddy as fuck reasoning.

There is a difference between an Ambassador being murdered and a pep talk speech to GS. The former is an actually story with legs, while the latter is something that would die in a few days. I've given you numerous examples of similar stories dying right away, and you have done nothing to defend your argument other then to hurl insults and stomp your feet like a petulant child. 

And no, it's not shoddy, and it's what everyone is talking about who brings up her transcripts. If there is nothing to hide then just release them. Refusing to do so raises suspicions, especially for Clinton, who has a problem with trust and transparency. 

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4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

You're seriously going to defend this?

There is a difference between an Ambassador being murdered and a pep talk speech to GS. The former is an actually story with legs, while the latter is something that would die in a few days. I've given you numerous examples of similar stories dying right away, and you have done nothing to defend your argument other then to hurl insults and stomp your feet like a petulant child. 

And no, it's not shoddy, and it's what everyone is talking about who brings up her transcripts. If there is nothing to hide then just release them. Refusing to do so raises suspicions, especially for Clinton, who has a problem with trust and transparency. 

To me, it's like asking why Obama didn't immediately show his birth certificate.  I expect she'll let it become a bigger issue, then release them and take all the wind from the sails of her detractors.  Or at least, that's what she's hoping will happen.

Either that, or she figures she just has to outlast Sanders and it won't be a talking point that Trump will focus on.

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10 hours ago, Altherion said:

In unrelated news, the Kasich campaign either exists in an alternate reality or believes their audience to have an unlimited reserve of gullibility:

Somebody ought to remind him that Kasich has won a grand total of one state (and that one was a place where the state party apparatus was an extension of his campaign) and that he is only fourth in the number of delegates (trailing not only Trump and Cruz, but also Rubio who dropped out in March).

In Kasich's defense, he really wants to be President!

He does still sort of have a path, its just incredibly unlikely. Trump still needs about 50% of the remaining delegates and Kasich is banking on enough consolidation around him now, as the sole remaining opponent, to prevent that from happening. And if there is a contested convention, there needs to be someone for the opposition to rally around; why not the only guy actually running for President, and who consistently beats Clinton (and Sanders) in general election polls?

Granted there's some major problems:

A few weeks ago consolidation seemed possible, but after last week and now Indiana, it seems pretty clear that Trump has a majority of primary voters' support now. 

If there was a contested convention, I don't see how the party can nominate someone who lost almost every state he competed in and would be, at best, in 3rd place in the delegate count. It'd have to be someone else, who didn't run.

Those general election polls are meaningless right now, since most of the country has no opinion on Kasich yet. And there's still plenty of salty Sanders supporters who aren't willing to say yet that they'll vote for Clinton; no telling yet which actually won't (either staying home or voting for Trump) vs. those that they will come around.

But as I said, Kasich really wants to be President!

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8 hours ago, peterbound said:

I'm not so sure.  Everyone I work with, /everyone/ is a union card carrying blue collar 'working class' dude/lady, and all of them are now voting for trump.  Everyone of them distrusts, dislikes, and can't back Clinton.  

 

Should be interesting from here on out.  I'm actually just shocked that Sanders didn't run away with the democratic nom.  I can't see how anyone would back clinton at this point in history.  She's pretty much always been on the wrong side of what the democrats stand for, can't seen to get her shit together long enough to actually stand up for something, and is in the back pockets of the government elite.  You guys had a chance to make a real fucking difference, and you played it safe with a mediocre, wishy washy, weak candidate.  For shame. 

 

I just hope the God Emperor likes fire fighters. 

My mom (not the most reliable of political indicators, I must admit) says **I** "better vote for Trump!" because he's his own man and not beholden to any of the powers-that-be.  She threatens me every time I see her lately.  I can only shake my head in disbelief.  She's 85 yrs. old, so I can't slap her silly.   My brother-in-law, another card-carrying union member, is Bernie all the way.  My dad and I both voted for Obama twice in the last elections. 

My husband, the Conservative, wanders around looking like he's lost his way.  He had almost talked himself into Cruz, the Devil's Spawn.  Now he has no idea what the hell to do. 

This election better come quickly or else my family will self-destruct. 

 

Oh, and I **love** the "God Emperor" moniker.  I'm sure Trump would like it too.  I will say that I never thought he'd get this far.  I still believe he won't be elected, but I too am thankful for the checks and balances our government provides. 

 

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After Indiana, Sanders needs demographic targets +20 in order to get a pledged majority. This isn't that surprising or even that special, but it shows exactly how insane his numbers really are. He needs to win California 2-1, he needs to win ND 82-18, that sort of thing. 

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And no, it's not shoddy, and it's what everyone is talking about who brings up her transcripts. If there is nothing to hide then just release them. Refusing to do so raises suspicions, especially for Clinton, who has a problem with trust and transparency. 

That would  kind of make sense, but it's Clinton. Clinton cannot trust the media any more. She has found that her best defense is to simply stall for as long as possible, because no matter what they are going to attack her - so why give them any actual substantive fuel? 

I'm not saying that this is the correct course of action, but it's what is in Clinton's mindset. Clinton doesn't need to release anything, it almost certainly doesn't have anything particularly damning, but she's not going to take a risk and she's not going to give people information. 

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Word is that Kasich has cancelled all events today, except for a newly scheduled press conference in Ohio at 5pm. An event tomorrow has also been cancelled.

Either he's going to drop out or introduce Carly Fiorina as his VP nominee.

Guess he didn't want to be President bad enough. Or reality has finally set in.

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14 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

BR,

I don't like Trump but your metaphore fails.  The worms (Shai-Hulud) made the spice.  They didn't "gobble" resources they created the most important resource of all the spice Melange.

Yes, more like Baron Harkonen winning the day and becoming God-Emperor.

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39 minutes ago, Fez said:

Word is that Kasich has cancelled all events today, except for a newly scheduled press conference in Ohio at 5pm. An event tomorrow has also been cancelled.

Either he's going to drop out or introduce Carly Fiorina as his VP nominee.

Guess he didn't want to be President bad enough. Or reality has finally set in.

The only reason for why he has even stayed in the race for the last couple of months has probably been so that he can eat for donor money, but now that Trump's victory is all but guaranteed that stream will dry up fast. 

It will be interesting if the Republican race wraps up now while Bernie is determined to take Hillary all the way to the convention at the end of July, however. That would mean almost two additional months of her expending time and resources fighting him during which Trump can try mending the wounds inside the Republican party and prepare a platform and organization for the general election. 

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Clinton doesn't really have to spend any resources or time fighting Sanders at this point. And, point of fact, she's not. She spent zero dollars in Indiana. Instead of campaigning in upcoming primaries, she's in Ohio. Her tweets and social media don't mention Sanders at all, and she has been spending the entire last two weeks attacking Trump or pulling herself up.

Her lead is high enough and people know about her enough that she doesn't need to campaign at this point. If Sanders would be convinced of a clinching lead - like Clinton was with Obama - then she might have something to campaign for. But she doesn't. She'll get enough votes in California and along the way to have a majority, Sanders has doubled and tripled down on staying in the race, so she really has nothing to do right now.

I suspect she'll get some stuff going in California, but probably not a huge deal. 

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33 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

That would  kind of make sense, but it's Clinton. Clinton cannot trust the media any more. She has found that her best defense is to simply stall for as long as possible, because no matter what they are going to attack her - so why give them any actual substantive fuel? 

I'm not saying that this is the correct course of action, but it's what is in Clinton's mindset. Clinton doesn't need to release anything, it almost certainly doesn't have anything particularly damning, but she's not going to take a risk and she's not going to give people information. 

That's kind of a self fulfilling prophecy though. And it's also not correct. Stalling on her emails made the issue worse, not better. It created more animosity towards her. 

As to the bolded, make no mistake, Trump can hit her hard on not releasing the transcripts. He'll paint her as dishonest, lacking in transparency and a puppet hiding how she sucked up to her corporate masters. Part of Trump's campaign is based off of a rigid system that has bought the U.S. government, and he'll contrast how he's not a part of this system while Clinton embodies it. It doesn't matter if it's true or not, it will be effective regardless.

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13 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Clinton doesn't really have to spend any resources or time fighting Sanders at this point. And, point of fact, she's not. She spent zero dollars in Indiana. Instead of campaigning in upcoming primaries, she's in Ohio. Her tweets and social media don't mention Sanders at all, and she has been spending the entire last two weeks attacking Trump or pulling herself up.

Her lead is high enough and people know about her enough that she doesn't need to campaign at this point. If Sanders would be convinced of a clinching lead - like Clinton was with Obama - then she might have something to campaign for. But she doesn't. She'll get enough votes in California and along the way to have a majority, Sanders has doubled and tripled down on staying in the race, so she really has nothing to do right now.

At least the media are starting to report that the Indiana outcome does not change the trajectory of the race. Up until now it's felt that reporters didn't understand the magnitude of Clinton's lead, and the near-impossibility of a Sanders victory.

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3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

As to the bolded, make no mistake, Trump can hit her hard on not releasing the transcripts. He'll paint her as dishonest, lacking in transparency and a puppet hiding how she sucked up to her corporate masters. Part of Trump's campaign is based off of a rigid system that has bought the U.S. government, and he'll contrast how he's not a part of this system while Clinton embodies it. It doesn't matter if it's true or not, it will be effective regardless.

Maybe those attacks will convince Latinos that Clinton is worse for them than Donald "Mexicans are rapists" Trump, but for some strange reason I am dubious.

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2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

That's kind of a self fulfilling prophecy though. And it's also not correct. Stalling on her emails made the issue worse, not better. It created more animosity towards her. 

But...she did release the emails, and she did so pretty much as fast as she was legally able to. If she had done it faster then people would have (rightfully) chided her for releasing secret mail to the public. 

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

As to the bolded, make no mistake, Trump can hit her hard on not releasing the transcripts. He'll paint her as dishonest, lacking in transparency and a puppet hiding how she sucked up to her corporate masters. Part of Trump's campaign is based off of a rigid system that has bought the U.S. government, and he'll contrast how he's not a part of this system while Clinton embodies it. It doesn't matter if it's true or not, it will be effective regardless.

I doubt it'll be that effective. Effective for whom? Trump can try and make that attack, but so what? If she does release them he'll just say that she's a puppet anyway. He'll say that regardless. Another way to say it is this: Clinton releasing or not releasing those transcripts doesn't change that Trump attack one bit. Not even for a second. He'll still call her dishonest, just like he has basically every single other opponent he has had. He'll still call her opaque. He'll still say that she was bought and paid for. None of this changes. Nothing at all. 

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3 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said:

Maybe those attacks will convince Latinos that Clinton is worse for them than Donald "Mexicans are rapists" Trump, but for some strange reason I am dubious.

For the hundredth time, it's not about getting people to switch from Hillary to Trump, it's about depressing her supporters turnout. 

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1 hour ago, Fez said:

Word is that Kasich has cancelled all events today, except for a newly scheduled press conference in Ohio at 5pm. An event tomorrow has also been cancelled.

Either he's going to drop out or introduce Carly Fiorina as his VP nominee.

Guess he didn't want to be President bad enough. Or reality has finally set in.

I'm guessing the people whom yesterday's extremely optimistic message asked for money told him that they're not going to give him anything and he didn't have much of a financial reserve. To the extent that his candidacy made any sense at all, it was as a means of helping Cruz deny Trump the delegate majority by picking up delegates in states that would never vote for Cruz. Given that Cruz is not there anymore (not to mention that Kasich completely failed at denying Trump a meaningful number of delegates), it makes no sense to throw away any more money on him.

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3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

For the hundredth time, it's not about getting people to switch from Hillary to Trump, it's about depressing her supporters turnout. 

 Sure, and that's fair. But I don't think that the transcripts are going to make that big of a difference. If she releases them, he's still going to go full attack mode on her in exactly the same way Sanders has and then some. It won't defuse that attack any more than releasing the birth certificate defused Trump about Obama being a secret muslim and not a real US citizen. 

It also probably won't matter, one way or another. Romney ran an election that got a lot of voters out to vote against Obama - and he still failed. He even was able to depress the vote of the democrats some, and it still failed. Why? Because the demographics are still absurdly strong for a Democrat in the presidency, and Trump is still absolutely loathed by Republicans. What Trump needs to do is win even more white voters than Romney did while also depressing the hell out of the nonwhite voters, and the nonwhite voters are by all accounts turning out as much or even more than they did in 2008. Latino registration, for instance, is on a crazy upswing now, and that's all thanks to Trump. 

There are lots of ways that Trump can win, but I'm becoming more and more convinced that none of them have to do with things like political steps or debate performance. They have to do with Trump somehow making everyone forget that two months ago he was insulting people's wives and talking about the size of his dick and getting all the republican voters and most of the undecideds in battleground states that look super encouraging for Democratic presidential candidates, and they have to do with Clinton not making monumental personal gaffes that she has unfortunately often done. 

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