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Can Jon snow conquer westeros?


blckp

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A "claim" is more than just saying "look, I'm someone's son!". You need people to support you and somehow prove it. And if you're going to conquer, you need an army. That's why Aegon isn't just arriving and saying "I'm Rhaegar's son!". He's doing things that would send a message: "I'm worthy of your loyalty".

So, the question would be, who would support Jon's alleged claim? :dunno:

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16 hours ago, JCRB's Honeypot said:

A "claim" is more than just saying "look, I'm someone's son!". You need people to support you and somehow prove it. And if you're going to conquer, you need an army. That's why Aegon isn't just arriving and saying "I'm Rhaegar's son!". He's doing things that would send a message: "I'm worthy of your loyalty".

So, the question would be, who would support Jon's alleged claim? :dunno:

north maybe? if dany believes jon snow is her brothers son then she might support him 

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27 minutes ago, blckp said:

if R+L= J is true then he will have claim, so can he conquer westeros?

No. That is not a feasible path to the Iron Throne, given events to date. At least not in terms of the timeframe left before Winter arrives, and the state of the Seven Kingdoms and Jon's position in it, as well as the known events that still have to occur in the South.

Conquest by force is therefore not how it will go down. What is a more likely path, is something along the lines of the following:

  • Jon is resurrected and unites the North under his defacto rule - whether as heir to Robb in Robb's will, or as Rickon's regent. That should be achieved by the end of Winds of Winter. At that point the Wall falls, and suddenly corpses start rising all over Westeros, from the Last Hearth to Oldtown. The crisis is upon the Seven Kingdoms and a new way forward is required to save humanity.
  • In the meantime, the three way war between Aegon, the Lannisters and Euron has devastated the South, and the accompanying Grey Plague has wiped out multitudes of people - ready corpses to be raised by the Others once the magical barrier of the Wall is brought down.
  • Meanwhile Sansa has gained control of the Vale, and the Tully's have used the chaos of Aegon's invasion to regain control of Riverrun. These two kingdoms align themselves with the North, under Jon's leadership and represent a powerbloc of 60,000+ soldiers without a major battle having been fought to achieve it.
  • Dany arrives and defeats Aegon, making her the new power in the South. Tyrion as her advisor meets with Jon somewhere in the Riverlands to discuss the impending doom of Westeros as evidenced by corpses rising all over the place. Tyrion, having a prior relationship with Jon and realising the severity of the situation acts as mediator between Jon and Dany. Possibly at this point Jon's true parentage is revealed to Dany, and this cements the alliance between them.
  • This happens somewhere in the middle of Book 7, in time for the end battle against the Others. The remaining Targaryen at the end becomes King of Westeros - if the Iron Throne still exists at that point. I believe it will be Jon, but there is an outside chance that Jon and Dany could rule as King and Queen, if they marry each other. A scenario that I find distasteful due to their family relationship, but one that cannot be completely discounted at this stage.

So does Jon conquer Westeros by force? No. But there is nevertheless a clear path to the Throne for him that does not involve open warfare just as the real threat of the Others is arriving.

 

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30 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

No. That is not a feasible path to the Iron Throne, given events to date. At least not in terms of the timeframe left before Winter arrives, and the state of the Seven Kingdoms and Jon's position in it, as well as the known events that still have to occur in the South.

Conquest by force is therefore not how it will go down. What is a more likely path, is something along the lines of the following:

  • Jon is resurrected and unites the North under his defacto rule - whether as heir to Robb in Robb's will, or as Rickon's regent. That should be achieved by the end of Winds of Winter. At that point the Wall falls, and suddenly corpses start rising all over Westeros, from the Last Hearth to Oldtown. The crisis is upon the Seven Kingdoms and a new way forward is required to save humanity.
  • In the meantime, the three way war between Aegon, the Lannisters and Euron has devastated the South, and the accompanying Grey Plague has wiped out multitudes of people - ready corpses to be raised by the Others once the magical barrier of the Wall is brought down.
  • Meanwhile Sansa has gained control of the Vale, and the Tully's have used the chaos of Aegon's invasion to regain control of Riverrun. These two kingdoms align themselves with the North, under Jon's leadership and represent a powerbloc of 60,000+ soldiers without a major battle having been fought to achieve it.
  • Dany arrives and defeats Aegon, making her the new power in the South. Tyrion as her advisor meets with Jon somewhere in the Riverlands to discuss the impending doom of Westeros as evidenced by corpses rising all over the place. Tyrion, having a prior relationship with Jon and realising the severity of the situation acts as mediator between Jon and Dany. Possibly at this point Jon's true parentage is revealed to Dany, and this cements the alliance between them.
  • This happens somewhere in the middle of Book 7, in time for the end battle against the Others. The remaining Targaryen at the end becomes King of Westeros - if the Iron Throne still exists at that point. I believe it will be Jon, but there is an outside chance that Jon and Dany could rule as King and Queen, if they marry each other. A scenario that I find distasteful due to their family relationship, but one that cannot be completely discounted at this stage.

So does Jon conquer Westeros by force? No. But there is nevertheless a clear path to the Throne for him that does not involve open warfare just as the real threat of the Others is arriving.

 

This. 

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Meanwhile Sansa has gained control of the Vale, and the Tully's have used the chaos of Aegon's invasion to regain control of Riverrun. These two kingdoms align themselves with the North, under Jon's leadership and represent a powerbloc of 60,000+ soldiers without a major battle having been fought to achieve it.

how? maybe north would go for war for jon snow ,but why would vale and tully support jon snow's conquest for iron throne?

Quote

Dany arrives and defeats Aegon, making her the new power in the South. Tyrion as her advisor meets with Jon somewhere in the Riverlands to discuss the impending doom of Westeros as evidenced by corpses rising all over the place. Tyrion, having a prior relationship with Jon and realising the severity of the situation acts as mediator between Jon and Dany. Possibly at this point Jon's true parentage is revealed to Dany, and this cements the alliance between them.

 

why would dany send tyrion to discuss with jon snow about white walkers, and 60,000 soldier is nothing to her

even when she learns that jon is her nephew i dont think dany would help jon snow unless he is in war with other great houses ,so tyrion acting as diplomat and make alliance thing is probably not happening

Quote

Now, how do
you suppose this queen will react when you turn up with your begging bowl in hand and say, ‘Good
morrow to you, Auntie. I am your nephew, Aegon, returned from the dead. I’ve been hiding on a
poleboat all my life, but now I’ve washed the blue dye from my hair and I’d like a dragon, please … and
oh, did I mention, my claim to the Iron Throne is stronger than your own?’ ”
Aegon’s mouth twisted in fury. “I will not come to my aunt a beggar. I will come to her a
kinsman, with an army.”
“A small army.” There, that’s made him good and angry. The dwarf could not help but think of
Joffrey. I have a gift for angering princes. “Queen Daenerys has a large one, and no thanks to you.”

3

 

Quote

Let her hear that her brother Rhaegar’s murdered son is still
alive, that this brave boy has raised the dragon standard of her forebears in Westeros once more, that
he is fighting a desperate war to avenge his father and reclaim the Iron Throne for House Targaryen,
hard-pressed on every side … and she will fly to your side as fast as wind and water can carry her. You
are the last of her line, and this Mother of Dragons, this Breaker of Chains, is above all a rescuer. The girl
who drowned the slaver cities in blood rather than leave strangers to their chains can scarcely abandon
her own brother’s son in his hour of peril

 

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As things stand right now? Of course not. Jon is a Lord Commander of a weak watch that has failed to keep the Wildlings out of Westeros. He has actually helped the Wildlings.

Currently a lot has to change for him to even win the support of the Northern lords. Rickon, Sansa and both Arya's are more likely to garner Northern support than Jon is. And none of them will be in an actual position to support Jon to be King. It is notable that despite Robb having been murdered two and a half books ago his will has not been a factor for the Northern Lords. They prefer Rickon or Roose.

After the Riverlands the North has been hit the worst during the War of the Five Kings. They are going to have trouble feeding themselves, the idea that they will be dictating who is the next monarch of Westeros in ridiculous.

Now obviously this is a fantasy series so I'm not ruling out the prospect of Jon somehow becoming King at the end. But it seems incredibly unlikely based on what we have seen so far and GRRM is running out of books to make it seem plausible.

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5 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:
  • Meanwhile Sansa has gained control of the Vale, and the Tully's have used the chaos of Aegon's invasion to regain control of Riverrun. These two kingdoms align themselves with the North, under Jon's leadership and represent a powerbloc of 60,000+ soldiers without a major battle having been fought to achieve it.

 

I never got that part, how is Sansa supposed to control the Vale when experienced much more men such as Yohn Royce are presents. Most of all why would the Vale -currently the realm the most prepared for the war- let Ned's bastard lead them ?

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1 hour ago, Kal-L said:

I never got that part, how is Sansa supposed to control the Vale when experienced much more men such as Yohn Royce are presents. Most of all why would the Vale -currently the realm the most prepared for the war- let Ned's bastard lead them ?

Because Robert Arryn listens to Sansa. By now she is basically an older sister, a favorite aunt and his mother all at once. And if he dies, well, LF plans for Sansa to twist Harry the Heir around her fingers.

 

Yohn Royce and the other Lords Declarent are Stark allies anyway, and many of them are closely related to the Starks.

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9 minutes ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

Because Robert Arryn listens to Sansa. By now she is basically an older sister, a favorite aunt and his mother all at once. And if he dies, well, LF plans for Sansa to twist Harry the Heir around her fingers.

 

Yohn Royce and the other Lords Declarent are Stark allies anyway, and many of them are closely related to the Starks.

What tell you that Robert Arryn will still be the ruler of the Vale or that all those experienced men will accept to be ruled by a sickly whiny kid and his teenage cousin accused to have murdered her husband and who not so long ago was under Littlefinger wing ?

Allies to the Starks yes but no bannerman. They owes no allegiance to the North and I don't see Harry or Yohn (the most likely choice) going under anyone but a King of 7K.

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The Arryns have ruled the Vale for 6,000 years. It's going to take a lot to dislodge that. Robert Arryn is growing out of his sickly whiny kid personage, and the Lords of the Vale jumped for joy when Sansa "murdered" her husband.

 

Of course they won't swear fealty to the North. But that wasn't the question. Allies is good enough, especially with Sansa being the de facto (not de jure) ruler of the Vale for the next 10-15 years.

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2 hours ago, Kal-L said:

I never got that part, how is Sansa supposed to control the Vale when experienced much more men such as Yohn Royce are presents. Most of all why would the Vale -currently the realm the most prepared for the war- let Ned's bastard lead them ?

Because in the Sansa spoiler chapter from Winds, she is already beginning to sexually manipulate Harry the Heir according to her desires. He is shown to be a bit of an oaf, if a kind of semi-likeable one. The hints are that she will soon have him eating out of her hand. From there, it is a small step to her taking full control of the Vale, as the art of political manipulation is clearly the "power" that she was designed to master, to counter Arya's Assassin skills, Bran's greenseer skills and Jon's military leadership skills.

The ONLY reason for her presence in the Vale, was to set her up as the one that eventually takes control of it. First as Littlefinger's puppet, but eventually cutting the strings and becoming the puppet master herself. Especially if the currently missing Brynden Tully eventually becomes her advisor. And even more so if her uncle Edmure becomes Lord of the Riverlands again. In fact, if Edmure dies, then Rickon becomes the Tully heir, and should the Tully's then take back Riverrun, Rickon is the Lord of the Riverlands, with Sansa his current heir.

All of this becomes even more interesting if Rickon is installed as Lord of Winterfell AND Riverun, with Jon as his regent. Then it is a case of Jon being the military ruler of the North and the Riverlands, through Rickon, and Sansa simply allying with her brothers, a move which Bronze Yohn was advocating for as long ago as the War of the Five Kings. And with the trusted Brynden Tully at her side, that move becomes all the more likely.

That is merely one scenario which achieves this end state. There are more besides that. Such as Sansa becoming pregnant with Harry's heir, and both him and Robert Arryn then dying, making Sansa the potential regent of her infant son, the new Lord of the Vale. Things will get very interesting in Sansa's plot arc, I reckon.

But we know from the snowcastle foreshadowing that she will ultimately play a critical role in restoring Winterfell's power.

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13 minutes ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

The Arryns have ruled the Vale for 6,000 years. It's going to take a lot to dislodge that. Robert Arryn is growing out of his sickly whiny kid personage, and the Lords of the Vale jumped for joy when Sansa "murdered" her husband.

 

Of course they won't swear fealty to the North. But that wasn't the question. Allies is good enough, especially with Sansa being the de facto (not de jure) ruler of the Vale for the next 10-15 years.

I'm not talking about disloging anyone, all I'm saying is that there is no way they will let the Vale ruled by two inexperienced kids who never saw a winter because of blood. A man like Yohn Royce will probably take the rule/regency and take the big decision for the time being.

The Vale will probably allied themselves with the North and Sansa might play a role in it, but no way she will be the leader of all these tough lords and "bring" them under Jon's lead.

If Harry becomes the heir and is convinced by Sansa to join the North, I say yes but still I don't see him agree to let the lead to Jon while he probably has the bigger army and the North needs more his help than the other way.

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33 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

if Edmure dies, then Rickon becomes the Tully heir, and should the Tully's then take back Riverrun, Rickon is the Lord of the Riverlands, with Sansa his current heir.

Edmure dying or not has no relevance as Riverrun is already sworn to Winterfel since Rob became king. We're also told that many lords of the Vale wanted to declare for Rob (if I'm not mistaken) and tried to convince Lisa to declare for her nephew, so I wouldn't expect them to oppose a union in the future.

Regarding Sansa in the Vale, if Sweet Robin is alive then someone may enforce a regency, if Harry is lord however, whether Royce likes it or not, he has no reason or power to "overrule" him as Harry is a man grown.

What I find more difficult is how Jon suddenly becomes king of any of this, Rickon has to die, we can discount Bran or Arya as they probably won'r reveal themselves, but that still leaves Sansa (an integral part of this whole theory) with a better claim than Jon. R+L=J may help Jon be king in the south, but in the north (if anything) it's more of an hindrance as it would place him further away from the throne. Another thing to consider is why should he accept the throne, when by doing it he would effectively usurping Sansa of her rightful place, Rob only legitimized him when he thought he had no heirs (except for Sansa who was in enemy hands at the time).

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3 minutes ago, Blade of Sunlight said:

What I find more difficult is how Jon suddenly becomes king of any of this, Rickon has to die, we can discount Bran or Arya as they probably won'r reveal themselves, but that still leaves Sansa (an integral part of this whole theory) with a better claim than Jon. R+L=J may help Jon be king in the south, but in the north (if anything) it's more of an hindrance as it would place him further away from the throne. Another thing to consider is why should he accept the throne, when by doing it he would effectively usurping Sansa of her rightful place, Rob only legitimized him when he thought he had no heirs (except for Sansa who was in enemy hands at the time).

He won't :D

 

No chance in hell. Nor would he wish for it.

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15 minutes ago, Blade of Sunlight said:

Edmure dying or not has no relevance as Riverrun is already sworn to Winterfel since Rob became king. We're also told that many lords of the Vale wanted to declare for Rob (if I'm not mistaken) and tried to convince Lisa to declare for her nephew, so I wouldn't expect them to oppose a union in the future.

Regarding Sansa in the Vale, if Sweet Robin is alive then someone may enforce a regency, if Harry is lord however, whether Royce likes it or not, he has no reason or power to "overrule" him as Harry is a man grown.

What I find more difficult is how Jon suddenly becomes king of any of this, Rickon has to die, we can discount Bran or Arya as they probably won'r reveal themselves, but that still leaves Sansa (an integral part of this whole theory) with a better claim than Jon. R+L=J may help Jon be king in the south, but in the north (if anything) it's more of an hindrance as it would place him further away from the throne. Another thing to consider is why should he accept the throne, when by doing it he would effectively usurping Sansa of her rightful place, Rob only legitimized him when he thought he had no heirs (except for Sansa who was in enemy hands at the time).

If Jon becomes King in the North, it will only be until Rickon is revealed, at which point he will likely step back and assume the Regency until Rickon comes of age. So it is a timing thing. We don't know in what order things will happen. A potential order of events could be:

1. Robb's will is revealed, legitimizing Jon and declaring him heir. Jon assumes the role of King in the North.

2. Rickon is revealed to be alive and Jon steps down and becomes his Regent until he comes of age, leading the North during this critical time of danger.

3. Jon is revealed to be the Targaryen heir, and assumes the Iron Throne, leaving Rickon to rule the North with Sansa as  Rickon's political guide and potential regent.

As we can see below, if the order switches around slightly, things still work out the same way in practice:

1. Rickon arrives and Jon assumes the Regency to guide and protect him during this critical time of threat.

2. Robb's will is revealed. Jon no longer accepts the nomination as heir, but is still legitimized as a true Stark.

3. Jon is revealed to be Rhaegar's heir.

And a third order of events - although one I find less narratively satisfying:

1. Jon is revealed to be Rhaegar's heir.

2. Rickon arrives and Jon becomes his Regent.

3. Robb's will is revealed, legimitizing Jon as a true Stark, but it now has little added value. To me this is not the best way to write the story, and I find it less likely that this will be the order of events.

In short, depending on the sequence of the various developments impacting Jon's status, the plot may run differently, but still end up with Jon gaining defacto power over the North and Riverlands, and allied with Sansa's Vale.

This will give him the power through alliance. But it will be his obvious hardness as a commander, and his strategic and leadership abilty, that will cow the various lords of the North, Riverlands and Vale into agreeing that he is indeed the best man to lead them during the Apocalypse.

The boy is now dead, and the man is about to be born.

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12 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

3. Jon is revealed to be the Targaryen heir, and assumes the Iron Throne, leaving Rickon to rule the North with Sansa as  Rickon's political guide and potential regent.

How would he assume the Iron Throne, Jon's standing in the South is non-existent, Rhaegars heir or not. Every Targ loyalist will either rally to fAegon's banners because he is Rhaegar's son, with Rhaegar's best friend and 10.000 men, or alternatively rally to Dany, who is the epitome of Targarieness as she actually has dragons. Force is out of the question as even if the Vale, Riverlands and North join together they would have little incentive to fight a war for the IT when they are happy enough as an independent kingdom, " They can keep their red castle and their iron chair as well." as Karstark put it.

During the Apocalypse Jon may indeed lead the forces in the North, as he seems to be the man for that job, but as I said before, so long as a Stark remains he will not even try to take the title of King. Regarding the IT, someone has to bring the south together to join in against the WW, that person will likely be closer to King of the IT than Jon. Without some leadership south, the south will not move north until they experience the WW themselves, at which point the North will be long gone.

The only way Jon could become King after the apocalypse if he's the last Trag standing and people want Targs, or if by popular acclamation all decide that Jon would be a great KIng. The former seems posible but unlikely, and the latter is the biggest cliche in fantasy, and I personally hope  doesn't happen as it would cheapen the story as a whole, particularly because everything now is pointing towards a group of heroes saving the day, not just on particular hero.

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2 hours ago, Blade of Sunlight said:

How would he assume the Iron Throne, Jon's standing in the South is non-existent, Rhaegars heir or not. Every Targ loyalist will either rally to fAegon's banners because he is Rhaegar's son, with Rhaegar's best friend and 10.000 men, or alternatively rally to Dany, who is the epitome of Targarieness as she actually has dragons. Force is out of the question as even if the Vale, Riverlands and North join together they would have little incentive to fight a war for the IT when they are happy enough as an independent kingdom, " They can keep their red castle and their iron chair as well." as Karstark put it.

During the Apocalypse Jon may indeed lead the forces in the North, as he seems to be the man for that job, but as I said before, so long as a Stark remains he will not even try to take the title of King. Regarding the IT, someone has to bring the south together to join in against the WW, that person will likely be closer to King of the IT than Jon. Without some leadership south, the south will not move north until they experience the WW themselves, at which point the North will be long gone.

The only way Jon could become King after the apocalypse if he's the last Trag standing and people want Targs, or if by popular acclamation all decide that Jon would be a great KIng. The former seems posible but unlikely, and the latter is the biggest cliche in fantasy, and I personally hope  doesn't happen as it would cheapen the story as a whole, particularly because everything now is pointing towards a group of heroes saving the day, not just on particular hero.

As I stated previously. Daenerys will conquer the South. Jon and Dany will never go to war with each other. There is time for only one more Dance of the Dragons and that will be between Daenerys and Aegon. When the dust settles Daenerys will control what is left of the South, Jon will control the Kingdom of the North and the Riverlands, allied with the Vale, and Winter will be upon Westeros, forcing the two Targaryens to join together to face the Others.

The Iron Throne only becomes an issue after the Last Battle, not before it.

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