Ramsay's Gift

[Lord Martin]

21 minutes ago, DireGhost said:

Have we seen pictures of Sansa in the Riverlands that I have somehow missed? I know Brienne and Pod end up there, are we just assuming that Sansa is there because they are? My own prediction is once Sansa is safe with Jon or Davos or someone, she will send Brienne to the Riverlands to search for Arya. It would be foolish to send Brienne away, but Brienne isn't one to disobey orders.

I have not seen photos of Sansa in the Riverlands per se.  But Sophie Turner was spotted in the forest outside Riverrun:  http://winteriscoming.net/lists/every-game-of-thrones-spoiler-for-season-6/sansa-spotting-around-winterfell (See item 11).

Sansa was also seen inside the Riverrun castle.  This video covers that around the 10 minute mark.  Though the whole video is very good.

 

 

[Jayc]

fArya

[Stangler]

The book has some plots in the north they may try and use. The first being Stannis rallying the minor northern houses. I think it is safe to say that this role will be filled by Sansa and Davos. The other plot is the mummer’s farce of Lord Manderley and Davos. The basic premise of that plot is to provide a fake gift (Davos) to prove loyalty.

I don’t think the show will try and establish the Manderleys and will use the Umbers instead because they have already established them a little bit.

Whatever the gift is I expect it to be a fake gift.

Rickon is certainly the most obvious option but it would seem derivative to just trade one Stark hostage for another. The show is certainly not above that of course.

The third plot that may be used is the infiltration of Winterfell. This may not work out for them but it would also provide Ramsey with some flaying material which we know he needs.  

I am not sure how it will all play out in the books or the show but I think it is clear that Ramsey's days are numbered and he will be betrayed on multiple fronts. 

[Ashlesha]

Honestly if you look at very past trailer the suspense in the trailer is exact opposite of what you would predict.

Take example of second episode trailer

Trailer: Jaime threatening to spoil blood
Episode: Nothing really happens
Trailer: Robert Strong appears to be fighting other Lannister soldiers
Episode: Nothing happens.
Trailer: Ramsay talks about storming Castle Black
Episode: Nothing happens to that effect
Episode title: Home (The only person using this word is Theon)

That is why I think Ramsay's gift would be something totally insignificant. May be a new hound.

 

[Ser Greggor the Baked]

It is prob Rickon or fRickon. The North is not going to all bail on the Starks and switch to the Boltons. They are VERY Stark loyal. Only the Karstarks have any real beef. 

But I also think Theon is going back to Winterfell and will stay in the North. 

Book Stuff:

Spoiler

Theon is nowhere near the Kingsmoot in the books. Bringing him there serves no purpose. What is he going to do? Take Victarions place and sail to get DT? No. He can not command a fleet. Everyone but his sister hates him there. There is no storyline for him over there. 

He could go to winterfell and serve as the hooded man maybe?

He talked about how much he owes to the Starks. Why would he say all that to Sansa then just leave. Also, saying home is leaving things ambiguous. The only reason to do that is if he is not going back to the II and instead going somewhere you do not expect. 

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen's Ghost]

At this point, anybody but Rickon will be a huge surprise. I'll be interested to see if they kill Shaggydog. 

[of man and wolf]

Shaggy is too violent and huge and wild. A younger GreyWind tore apart the GreatJon....I can only imagine what Shaggy could do to anyone else.

 

They better not kill them off. If they do kill Rickon I hope someone sends Shaggy loose on them all...Shaggy and Ghost vs the Hounds.

 

Also, doubt Tormund could beat SmallJon in a fight one on one.

[White Harbors Wrath]

13 hours ago, Ashlesha said:

Honestly if you look at very past trailer the suspense in the trailer is exact opposite of what you would predict.

Take example of second episode trailer

Trailer: Jaime threatening to spoil blood
Episode: Nothing really happens
Trailer: Robert Strong appears to be fighting other Lannister soldiers
Episode: Nothing happens.
Trailer: Ramsay talks about storming Castle Black
Episode: Nothing happens to that effect
Episode title: Home (The only person using this word is Theon)

That is why I think Ramsay's gift would be something totally insignificant. May be a new hound.

 

Bran: "I was home"

[White Harbors Wrath]

10 hours ago, Ser Greggor the Baked said:

It is prob Rickon or fRickon. The North is not going to all bail on the Starks and switch to the Boltons. They are VERY Stark loyal. Only the Karstarks have any real beef. 

But I also think Theon is going back to Winterfell and will stay in the North. 

Book Stuff:

  Hide contents

Theon is nowhere near the Kingsmoot in the books. Bringing him there serves no purpose. What is he going to do? Take Victarions place and sail to get DT? No. He can not command a fleet. Everyone but his sister hates him there. There is no storyline for him over there. 

He could go to winterfell and serve as the hooded man maybe?

He talked about how much he owes to the Starks. Why would he say all that to Sansa then just leave. Also, saying home is leaving things ambiguous. The only reason to do that is if he is not going back to the II and instead going somewhere you do not expect. 

 

He was definitely spotted in the "II" during filming...why at this point in the show do you think things need to serve a purpose. They create narratives or lack there of just because they want things to happen

[messem]

On 2.5.2016 at 6:25 PM, White lilly said:

I'm just hoping that the Umbers are taking the Manderlys place and setting Ramsay up.

I think it's pretty clear what's going on (I'm 60% sure). Ramsay mentioned that the Karstarks, Umbers and Manderlys have more soldiers than all other houses combined. Exposition! 

The Karstarks already joined the Boltons.

The Umbers will join next episode with Rickon as a gift. I hate the thought but that doesn't make it more unlikely.

We will be told that the Manderlys will join the Boltons leading the viewers (and Ramsay) to believe that Ramsay might win the North. The Manderlys will join late during Snowbowl to strengthen the Bolton forces. Giving Ramsay a "I wish it were night or the Prussians came" moment. When they arrive to the battle they will turn on the Boltons and be the deciding factor.

[Ser Quork]

10 hours ago, Ser Greggor the Baked said:

It is prob Rickon or fRickon. The North is not going to all bail on the Starks and switch to the Boltons. They are VERY Stark loyal. Only the Karstarks have any real beef. 

But I also think Theon is going back to Winterfell and will stay in the North. 

Book Stuff:

  Hide contents

Theon is nowhere near the Kingsmoot in the books. Bringing him there serves no purpose. What is he going to do? Take Victarions place and sail to get DT? No. He can not command a fleet. Everyone but his sister hates him there. There is no storyline for him over there. 

He could go to winterfell and serve as the hooded man maybe?

He talked about how much he owes to the Starks. Why would he say all that to Sansa then just leave. Also, saying home is leaving things ambiguous. The only reason to do that is if he is not going back to the II and instead going somewhere you do not expect. 

 

In the books (iirc) Rodrik Harlaw (the Reader) talks of a precedent for invalidating the Kingsmoot because the actual heir wasn't there so Asha wants to get Theon back to Pyke to invalidate the choice of the first Kingsmoot.  I wonder if the show has decided to run those together rather than having two separate Kingsmoots and will have Theon present for the Kingsmoot.  (I could be completely wrong, but that is what strikes me.)

10 hours ago, Rhaegar Targaryen's Ghost said:

At this point, anybody but Rickon will be a huge surprise. I'll be interested to see if they kill Shaggydog. 

I'm hoping they'll just present a old direwolf pelt, but I fear for Shaggydog (and Rickon & Osha). 

[Ludo Kressh]

23 hours ago, Xarkar said:

The only thing about it being Rickon that doesnt make sense to me is the smile on Ramsay's face.  He has never met Rickon, so an Umber shows up unannounced, and says he has a gift.  Why is he smiling?

 

Also, I just noticed this, but the preview shows the Umber saying he has a gift, with Ramsay sitting at the table each facing each other.

Then, in the scene with Ramsay smiling the Umber is standing behind Ramsay.  IE if  they are indeed the same scene, Ramsay got up, walked past the Umber to the "gift".  If the gift was Rickon, why woudl they need to get up and go see him?  Ramsay could have just sat where he was. 

 

He could be smiling because not only did the Umbers bring Rickon, but they brought Osha as well. That smile can only mean Ramsey has sadistic ideas for his bonus gift: the wildling Osha. He needs a new 'plaything' since Theon is gone. As for his plans for Rickon? I don't know, but I doubt he'll kill him right away.

[Lord Friendzone]

9 hours ago, of man and wolf said:

Shaggy is too violent and huge and wild. A younger GreyWind tore apart the GreatJon....I can only imagine what Shaggy could do to anyone else.

 

They better not kill them off. If they do kill Rickon I hope someone sends Shaggy loose on them all...Shaggy and Ghost vs the Hounds.

 

Also, doubt Tormund could beat SmallJon in a fight one on one.

Shaggy would take out a lot of them. If he's dead or with him, we know it's Rickon and not fake one.

I would like to see Ghost an Shaggy do some serious damage to the Boltons.

Tormund can beat Smalljon and vice versa but we have no idea how good Smalljon really is. We knw Tormund is one badass and he literally is like a tank.

[Lady Fishbiscuit]

17 hours ago, Lord Martin said:

I'm 50/50 on whether its Rickon or FRickon.  Admittedly, its a cheap and easy way to get rid of Rickon, justify the Pink Letter, bring Jon South and make Ramsay's army look formidable with the Umbers and Karstarks on his side. 

But I think the show is giving us their version of the grand northern conspiracy.  I think Frickon is a trojan horse of sorts to get spies into the Bolton camp in order to return the Starks to power in the North.  This would echo the book without being identical.

The seeds for a northern conspiracy have been planted for a long time.  After the Red Wedding, when Roose sneaks into the Dreadfort and meets "Reek," he and Ramsay discuss how important it is to kill the Stark boys because every house in the north hates the Boltons for the Red Wedding and will rally against them.  Thus there is a suggestion the Boltons could be undone by the other northern houses.

Of course we seldom see the northern lords.  House Mormont and Reed are prominent but we don't see their lords.  In the first season we have the Greatjon primarily.  However, Robb mentions Galbart Glover as leading the vanguard.  In seasons 2 and 3 we have the Boltons and Karstarks primarily... though others are seen or mentioned such as Manderly at the Red Wedding.  There are also a few random lords that Bran gives aid to early in Season 2 and Torren Square is saved by Ser Rodrick and Theon mentions it is the seat of House Tallhart when he plots with Dagmar.  Later we see that Ramsay flayed Lord Cerwyn and in episode 2 we just learned that the Glovers re-took Deepwood from the Ironborn.  But do we ever see the northern lords communicating with one another?

We seldom see the non-major characters meeting or planning together, but plainly they do.  We don't see the Sons of the Harpy plot against Dany, it is merely hinted at.  We didn't see Tywin's letters with Walder Frey, but the RW was hinted at.  We didn't see Dolorous Ed recruit the Wildlings, but it was hinted at.  Why would the northern houses be any different?  So are there any hints that the northern houses are rallying against the Boltons in the name of the Starks?

Here is one:  The whole world believes that all the Stark males are dead with a handful of exceptions (Bolton, Theon and Sansa).  Of course Rickon knows he's alive.  And last we heard Rickon and Osha were headed to the Umbers.  We hear nothing about him after.  Or do we...?

Recall that Lyanna Mormont of Bear Island writes to Stannis, "The north knows no king but the King in the North whose name is Stark."  In theory, she should be loyal to Sansa Stark - the last known surviving Stark.  So why mention a King named Stark?  One answer is that the Mormonts know that Rickon is with the Umbers because they sent word to the Mormonts in order to plot to put Rickon back in power as King in the North.

So is this a hint at a northern conspiracy?  Note that just an episode or two later, when Sansa comes to Wintefell, she meets an elderly woman who tells her "the North Remembers."  Again, is this a hint at a larger conspiracy against the Boltons?  It really could be.  Beyond that Roose contastly reminds Ramsay that they are outnumbered and need the northern houses, like lord Cerwyn who didn't pay his taxes.

One major theme that is developing this season is the power struggles in each region of the Seven Kingdoms and even beyond.  Dorne and the Iron islands are prime examples as the heads of those great houses were killed. King's Landing has its own version of this theme as the Lannisters wrangle with the Faith.   Meeren too.  And the North fits this mold perfectly as Ramsay kills Roose and we are re-introduced to the Karstarks.  So I think we are going to get lots of political maneuvering in the north if not a full scale civil war.

The show is already setting up the power structure of the north by noting that if the Karstarks, Umbers and Manderlys ally with the Boltons, they will have enough power to control the north.  Immediately after telling us the Boltons need 3 houses to hold the north, one of them is already there and loyal to Ramsay, the Karstarks.  So that's 1/3rd of the task done.  

The trailer then suggests that the Umbers then come on board and are handing going to deliver Rickon as Ramsay's "gift."  We even have Ramsay's haunting "do you like games little man?" in one of the trailers.  But all of this is too obvious, IMO.  It would really be weak for Ramsay to kill his father and magically have 2/3rds of the houses he needs fall into his lap.  

Keep in mind that this episode is called "Oathbreaker."  One suggested interpretation is that the Umbers are breaking their oaths to the Starks by giving Rickon to Ramsay.  But recall that Robb once called the Greatjon an oathbreaker for bearing steel against his liege lord and the Greatjon was outraged.  He also immediately came to his senses and became Robb's ally.  Would it be logical for his sons to betray the Starks so easily?  So I wonder if Oathbreaker has a double meaning here.  Is it actually meant to recall the Umber oath to the Starks and that the Umbers would rather die than be called oathbreakers?  

The Karstark allegiance with House Bolton is a logical one.  Robb killed Lord Karstark and his son(s) were killed during the war.  The Karstarks are logical Bolton allies.  But the Umbers?  Really?  The Greatjon was a staunch ally of Rob in Season 1 and acclaimed him King in the North.  And Bran trusts the Umbers enough to send Rickon to them.  This seems to be a total 180 from what we know of the Umbers, especially if they've already let the other Nothern houses know they have Rickon.

My suspicion is that Rickon is a fake though the show may tease us for an episode or two.  But the show won't just give away that there is a conspiracy.  We will learn of it peace meal through Davos and Sansa. 

---------

Thoughts on Rickon as a ruse against the Boltons?

Great post @Lord Martin!  Love all your evidence points and hints.

I'm with you on this one. I think there's a very strong chance the gift is Rickon (real or fake), otherwise why change the story so that Rickon & Osha head for the Umbers at Last Hearth? I also agree it will be a Trojan Horse gift as part of the GNC.

I know the story has taken some strange turns in the show, but I would find it hard to believe in the big Northern houses going against the Starks. I'm not even convinced the Karstarks are really on Team Ramsay, I think they just joined him first as the most plausible stark enemies in the North.  They then managed to convince Ramsay that getting rid of Roose would be a good move, thereby getting rid of the man most likely to suspect a conspiracy.  As much as the Karstarks hated Rob for what happened before, I think the treachery of the red wedding could have surpassed this.  The North remembers. I'm pretty sure the Starks have always been the ruling house in the north since the age of heroes, with little in the way of Northern enmity or uprisings other than from the Boltons.  Loyalty runs deep.

Not sure if it will be real or fake Rickon.  If real, they could have some way of convincing Ramsay to keep him alive and whole.  I like the idea of real, so that there is once again a Stark in Winterfell.  They could also have Osha and Shaggydog hidden somewhere like the crypts.  I appreciate this might be too big a risk for the Umbers to take though, given how much Ramsay loves maiming and killing people.  If it was a fake, it's a bit sad that another child gets sacrificed to save the Starks. I really liked how in ep 2, Theon pointed out that he didn't deserve forgiveness as he still killed 2 innocent boys, even if they weren't the Stark boys.

If not (f)Rickon, I reckon these are possibilities 

• 2 direwolf pelts - telling Ramsay that even if the boys are alive, they are just children and can't prove their stark-ness without the wolves.
• (f)Arya
• Trojan Brienne & Sansa
• Theon
• Wyman Manderley's heir as hostage (that the Freys have in the books) or his daughter as a new wife.

Really hope we get to see Lord Too-Fat-To-Sit-A-Horse!!

[Lord Friendzone]

12 hours ago, Ser Greggor the Baked said:

It is prob Rickon or fRickon. The North is not going to all bail on the Starks and switch to the Boltons. They are VERY Stark loyal. Only the Karstarks have any real beef. 

But I also think Theon is going back to Winterfell and will stay in the North. 

Book Stuff:

  Reveal hidden contents

Theon is nowhere near the Kingsmoot in the books. Bringing him there serves no purpose. What is he going to do? Take Victarions place and sail to get DT? No. He can not command a fleet. Everyone but his sister hates him there. There is no storyline for him over there. 

He could go to winterfell and serve as the hooded man maybe?

He talked about how much he owes to the Starks. Why would he say all that to Sansa then just leave. Also, saying home is leaving things ambiguous. The only reason to do that is if he is not going back to the II and instead going somewhere you do not expect. 

 

Just watch Umbers bertraying Starks too. Manderly's could be switching sides.

Huge spoilers.

We know from spoilers that Theon is far away from the North and Winterfell. He'll meet with Yara and go to Essos. Possibly taking on Victarion's role with her and bringing ships/part of Ironborn to Daeny. Her fleet got burned by Sons of the Harpy.

[Stargaryen81]

On ‎5‎/‎2‎/‎2016 at 10:12 AM, Punting on the Honeywine said:

It could still be Roose and Walda although I don't understand why Ramsay would put his own family out like that... hardly encouraging for his own men?

  Hide contents

Why would the Umbers back the Boltons over the Starks?

 Also, in today's episode they state that the Boltons, Umbers, Karstarks and Manderlys have more men that everyone else combined.  

  Reveal hidden contents

None of the leaks I've come across mention the Manderly men at all. 

 

The Umber back the Boltons because the Freys and Lannisters hold the GreatJon.  They must stay loyal or he is dead.  Remember he is not dead.  Now will they put that in the show, they should.  Also, Jon Snow (Stark/Targaryen) allowed the Wildlings to settle in the Gift.  The umbers hate the wildlings more than any other house. 

[Stargaryen81]

On ‎5‎/‎2‎/‎2016 at 0:07 PM, Anarcho said:

I suppose it could be a fake Rickon, though. Unlike Book Ramsay, Show Ramsay wasn't at Winterfell during Theon's rule, and never appears to have been there before that (Theon clearly had never met him), so he probably has no idea what Bran and Rickon look like.

It could be the case, but seriously that would be a happy moment for show watchers.  Really?  How many happy moments do we get?  It will be the real Rickon because it is far more emotional and intense that way.  it also doesn't give away the fact that the Umbers could be playing Ramsay (although I don't think they are, I believe they are sincere).  if it is a fake Rickon then that gives away to much.  Ramsay won't hurt Rickon though.  he can't to keep people loyal and he even knows that.  Rickon will be at the big battle, not on a cross.  At that point that battle will basically be for control of the North and Rickon won't matter then.  I am worried for Rickon when the battle begins. 

[Ruhail]

7 minutes ago, Stargaryen81 said:

The Umber back the Boltons because the Freys and Lannisters hold the GreatJon.  They must stay loyal or he is dead.  Remember he is not dead.  Now will they put that in the show, they should.  Also, Jon Snow (Stark/Targaryen) allowed the Wildlings to settle in the Gift.  The umbers hate the wildlings more than any other house. 

There is no Greatjon hostage or any others outside Edmure in the show. Hes been retconned. Bryan Cogman said so, said hes in riverunn i believe.

[Stargaryen81]

 

On ‎5‎/‎2‎/‎2016 at 0:51 PM, Ser Greggor the Baked said:

Theon did not say that he was going to the Iron Islands. Just that he was going Home. He also said this right after talking about how much he owed to the starks. The show going right to the II after he said that could be a misdirection. 

Not sure of book spoiler rules so... 

  Hide contents

Theon going to the Iron Islands for the Kings Moot would be a HUGE departure from the book. There is no reason for him to go there anyway. They just introduced Euron/Victarion (who is prob the person in the trailer). What purpose would he serve there?

It makes much more sense in his redemption arc for him to go avenge his sins against the Stark family. 

It was never said the Umbers were on the side of the Boltons, just that they had a large army. And the Umbers would know Theon and Theon them. 

  Hide contents

The book also has a big conspiracy against the Boltons, that would make more sense to bring into the show then all of a sudden bringing Rickon in. 

I have always thought that the only reason Rickon was written into the story, is so at the end of the whole thing there is a Male Stark to have at Winterfell. 

We have seen previews of Theon riding on a horse with Iron Islanders behind him.  Theon said he can never repay the Starks for what he did.  He didn't say he has to repay them, he said he never can.  He has to go someplace where people don't look at him as a Turncloak and won't kill him right away.  Theon is going to the Iron Islands.  Yes, it is a departure from the book, why are you so surprised?  Actually we don't know if it is a departure or not.  No one said Theon will be at the Kingsmoot and in the books I don't believe we have gotten that far in the book.  If he goes out to avenge the Starks, he will die.  He doesn't have a death wish.  he has to do what is smart, go home.  Get some power and then do your best to avenge.  Again, I think you are looking to the books to much.  In the books there is actually a faction of Umbers (older seasoned fighters) are with the Umbers because the Lannisters/Freys have the Greatjon captive.  Where another faction of Umbers are outside not for the Boltons.  Nothing is assumed they are on the same side, what is said that the Umbers loyal to the Boltons said they will not fight the Umbers who are not loyal.  So we don't know if the faction of Umbers in WF in the books are actually loyal to the Boltons.  there are plenty of images that show the Umbers shooting arrows with the Boltons.  The show won't go into as much detail for the Northern Conspiracy.  I think it will be much more straightforward. 

[Stargaryen81]

On ‎5‎/‎2‎/‎2016 at 5:10 PM, lordstewie said:

Viewing the episode trailer I thought that the gift can be a false "Rickon" instead that a false "Arya" or a new wife for Ramsay maybe Jeyne?

it would be plausible ...

Plausible but not very good emotionally.  Then we are happy all season long about the payoff against the Bolton's  we then know all season long that the Bolton's are screwed.  They will use the entire season to make the Bolton's strong and the rebels not strong.  the final season battle will have the Bolton's army probably 5 times bigger than what Jon and Davos and Tormund bring the field.  Hopefully Sansa or Petyr brings the Vale.  remember Baelish was dispatched by Cersei to kill off the boltons after they battle for the north.  He didn't go up there when Stannis battled, so hopefully he makes it for this battle.