Mad King Aerys II Wasn't Crazy....

[Brian Rioghbhardan]

.... He was just misguided arrogant incompetent fool who came to the throne believing that he it was his destiny to be the central figure fulfilling a prophesy that would bring dragons back into the world and in doing so save mankind from being wiped out by Frozen monsters in the north. But like most prophesies things didn't go as he expected and with time he grew increasingly desperate i to bring about the prophesy leading wildly erratic behavior and paranoia that outside forces were trying to stop him.

And no I'm not crazy either there's sound logic and book material to give this idea plausible backing. First off I think it's highly likely that Children of the forest were aware LONG before the start of ASOIAF that the Others were preparing to descend upon mankind once again and that this likely played into Bloodraven abandoning the Nights Watch to live as a green seer tree man. Now around this time during the reign of Egg (Aegon V) one of the Children of the forest (the ghost of High Heart) became part of the Royal Family's Inner Circle. We know that she took it upon herself to start advising the Royal family to marry Aerys II to Rhaella for the sake bringing about TPTWP. I don't think it's a huge leap to suggest that perhaps the reason the Targ Royals were taking her advise so seriously, despite Aegon V's own objection to incest marriages, is because she had informed them that the return of the White Walkers and the Long Night was fast approaching. And that the only hope for mankind's survival was for the Targ's to fulfill certain prophesies involving TPTWP and likely the return of dragons. Now there's strong evidence that the targ's starting with Egg's (Aegon V) generation were starting to take some of these prophesies VERY seriously, egg at one point states: 

Quote

"I'm not Stupid, ser... Someday the dragons will return. My brother Daeron dreamed of it and King Aerys (Aerys I not the II) read it in a Prophesy. Maybe it will be my egg that hatches." Mystery Knight

It's likely that this prophesy is what lead Egg's brother to drink Wildfire. You'd think that would act as a warning to Egg, but given the looming threat of White Walkers, I think it's likely that he decided to push forward with his own dangerous ritual/sorcery involving dragon eggs at Summerhall. Given that they did this on the night Rhaegar was born and we are given indications by aemon that the Targs initially believed Rhaegar was the TPTWP, I'm guessing there's something in prophesy indicating that TPTWP will usher dragons back into the world. But ultimately this resulted in the Tragedy of Summerhall that consumed him and most of Aerys family in massive fire (Sir Barristan mentions sorcery/dragon eggs and seems to blame the The Ghost of High Heart).  

Assuming all this then from Aerys II point of view, Maester Aemon aside, all his extended family are now dead and all of mankind is going to be wiped out unless he finds a way to fufill the prophesy. The one thing that seems certain is that it's essential for him to start impregnating his wife so the TPTWP will exist. When Aerys initially became king he was very different known to be a very social and warm figure as opposed to a crazy paranoid mad man. He often stated that he believed that he would go down in history as the greatest king westeros ever had, this would make sense if he believed that he was destined to bring about prophesies that would stop the white walker Invasion. It's also interesting to note that when he initially became king he called Lord Stark into court to suggest building another Massive WALL further north then the current Wall. 

So given that his primary role in fulfilling the prophesy required him to conceive children with his wife it's not surprising that  The World of Ice and Fire states that he grew increasingly paranoid and erratic every time his wife had a stillborn child and that his personality/behavior returned to normal when ever Rhaella gave birth to a healthy child (until that kid mysteriously died). It's even possible that his paranoia may have been justified and that the Maester's seeking to prevent a possible return of dragons were responsible for these stillbirths/deaths. 

It's possible that with every stillbirth he began to fear that he had failed to fulfill his role in the prophesy and thus grew increasingly desperate to find other ways to bring about the prophesy by other means. With the fate of mankind in question perhaps he got into his head that he could redeem himself by bringing back dragons himself. And so he decided that he would reattempt the samesorcery/ritual that had lead to the tragedy at Summerhall but this time on a much larger scale to insure it's success. To do so he brought on Pyromancer guild, when Robert's rebellion broke out and he began to face the reality that his throne might soon be taken away from him he finally cracked and decided to enact the ritual by turning all Kingslanding into massive fireball. After all he'd likely only have one shot at this and if he believed the fate of all mankind rested on it's success then he might as well play it safe and go to big then too small. After all what's one city compared to all mankind. Perhaps he even believed that Rhaegar's new born son Aegon could be the prince that was promised and that's why he forced Rhaegar's wife and children to remain behind in the capital. Now obviously he was wrong about all this and if he had followed through then it would of been all for nothing, but from his perspective this was his last shot and it was all or nothing. 

 

Rioghbhardan

[A bowl of brown]

I think he was always mad it just got progressively worse. Sane people aren't sexually aroused by burning people alive. 

[CJ McLannister]

30 minutes ago, A bowl of brown said:

Sane people aren't sexually aroused by burning people alive. 

I'm not disagreeing with you, but the sample size of people who have burned others alive and not gotten aroused isn't very large either.

[oopeed]

1 hour ago, A bowl of brown said:

I think he was always mad it just got progressively worse. Sane people aren't sexually aroused by burning people alive. 

And certainly do not wail "Burn them all!" like crazy as they see the end coming.

[Seams]

I have long suspected that someone was painting poison onto the Iron Throne. Every time Aerys got a knick or cut, a little more poison entered his system, keeping him crazy.

 

My number one suspect for the source of the poison is Tywin Lannister. I suspect he also worked with the maesters to ensure that the babies were stillborn or that they died soon.

 

I think Tywin was working on trying to fulfill his own prophecy, something he learned from Maggie the Frog. He may have felt threatened by Aery's prophecy, or believed it was in conflict with the destiny he saw for House Lannister. We'll probably learn more about it as the next books unfold. Maybe uncle Gerion Lannister (who I think of as "Tyrion's Benjen") will know the secret prophecy behind Tywin's ambition. And maybe we'll find that the two prophecies are not mutually exclusive.

[Rippounet]

 

Interesting theory but no... TPtwP was always supposed to be "from the line of Aerys and Rhaella." As soon as Rhaegar was born, Aerys's role was over and he could have relaxed. Moreover, if Aerys had been worried about the Others (or any impending doom), he would have taken measures (like reinforcing the NW). Yet, Aerys, while always having wild dreams, never took any measure that would indicate he wanted to preserve the realm from a threat.

The idea that Aerys was poisoned, on the other hand, has a lot of merit. The man was a bit extreme in his youth, but clearly became completely crazy later on. And there is one person who could use poison in the vicinity and who had several motives to do so, and who eventually betrayed Aerys anyway: Pycelle. Pycelle who not only, as a grandmaester, may have been part of the GMC (wanting to remove magic and Targaryans from the world), but also admired Tywin enough to betray his king.
Anyone remembers the list of poisons that Tyrion finds in Pycelle's cabinet? Was one of them likely to induce paranoia per chance?

[Jon Fossoway]

5 hours ago, A bowl of brown said:

I think he was always mad it just got progressively worse. Sane people aren't sexually aroused by burning people alive. 

I don't buy that. Even the sanest, sober and reasonable person can be driven mad with anger or whatever if his head gets boiled enough. Aerys began to truly lost it when he was held in Duskendale.

[Brian Rioghbhardan]

3 hours ago, Rippounet said:

 

Interesting theory but no... TPtwP was always supposed to be "from the line of Aerys and Rhaella." As soon as Rhaegar was born, Aerys's role was over and he could have relaxed. Moreover, if Aerys had been worried about the Others (or any impending doom), he would have taken measures (like reinforcing the NW). Yet, Aerys, while always having wild dreams, never took any measure that would indicate he wanted to preserve the realm from a threat.

The idea that Aerys was poisoned, on the other hand, has a lot of merit. The man was a bit extreme in his youth, but clearly became completely crazy later on. And there is one person who could use poison in the vicinity and who had several motives to do so, and who eventually betrayed Aerys anyway: Pycelle. Pycelle who not only, as a grandmaester, may have been part of the GMC (wanting to remove magic and Targaryans from the world), but also admired Tywin enough to betray his king.
Anyone remembers the list of poisons that Tyrion finds in Pycelle's cabinet? Was one of them likely to induce paranoia per chance?

I disagree, Aerys had pretty good reason not to assume that he'd fullfilled the prophesy simply by siring Rhaegar. Like I said when Aery's knocked up Rhaella with Rhaegar, based on Aemon and the events that took place at Summerhall there seemed be a very strong belief amongst the Targs that Rhaegar was child who fulfilled the prophesy. I mean I highly doubt that it's coincidence that on the same night Rhaegar was born, King Aegon V decided to invite a child of the forest over to his summer palace to help perform some mysterious sorcery ritual with dragon eggs that turned out to be so powerful that it managed to turn the whole palace and most of the Targ family line into ash. I'm pretty sure they did it because they thought they had their promised prince and that this meant they could now successfully perform their fire ritual to bring back their dragons. So afterwards when almost everyone turned up dead and no dragons were awaken that was likely pretty strong sign to aerys and others that Rhaegar wasn't TPTWP.  To add to this in the Aery's chapter in The World of Ice and Fire we actually have him declaring that "The God's Will not Suffer A Bastard to sit the Iron Throne." after Rhaella had undergone a series of Miscarriages and Rhaegar was still currently their ownly their child. This along with his increasing suspicions and poor treatment of aegon of the years has lead some to believe Rhaegar was not Aerys son. I'm not sure I buy that, but do think it's possible that in his paranoia he began to question if Rhaegar was his son given the fact the ritual they  performed the night he was turned into a total shit show. That and there really isn't any other explanation for why most of his very long chapter in A world of Ice and fire revolves around him being obsessed with having more kids. 

 

But yeah I agree though it's specifically mentioned that he called in Lord Stark to discuss building a second wall farther North, nothing came of it. Though I'd argue that if it turns out that both the prophesy and childen of the forest had expressed the idea that the no army or wall could stop white walkers andthat mankinds only hope against stopping them was to insure both the birth of TPTWP and return of dragons. Then building up building up the Night's watch or wall might seem like a fools errand. And realistically I think we can all expect some shit to go down in future books which proof this to be the case as I highly doubt the wall is going to keep standing for long and not because of poor maintenance. 

As to your whole theory slow poisoning being the true cause of his descent to madness. I can actually get behind that. Their's a lot of historians that have put forth a similar theory in regards to England's Mad King George having been driven mad as  result of lead poisoning. Since like Aerys early accounts of his life and reign showed him to be much different person. In fact this theory is actually a discarded variation of bigger theory I've had Aery's knowingly or perhaps unknowinly being Azor Ahai and his children being the light bringers that will defeat the WW. In that I actually went with Aery's being mad but I too decided that given earlier descriptions of him it wasn't Targ Madness but the result of an outside unnatural source. Only I suggested that some sort of mystical force infected his mind and began to influence his thoughts/actions as an unintended consequence of the ritual performed at Summerhall. But I think the whole Poisoning thing might be a better fit given the Mad King George. It also would make a lot of sense if it was done by the Maester if they were aware that the last 3 Targ kings had been digging through prophesies and peforming rituals to try to bring back dragons after they'd worked so hard to get rid of them. And if the Maester knew that Aery's and Rhaella were prophesized to give birth of TPTWP and that the TPTWP would return dragons to the world then that would give them pretty strong motivation to also poison Rhaella's children thus explaining all her childbirth issues. 

 

Rioghbhardan 

[aryagonnakill#2]

I think it is very possible that he was being poisoned.  The maesters seem to have an agenda, and it is very fishy to me that as soon as Aerys sent Rhaella to Dragonstone to give birth the pregnancy actually worked, and then the same thing happened with Danaerys.

[Alaynsa Starne]

I think it's pretty evident that there was some mania there. I think it was Barristan who noted that even in Aerys' more affable youth, there was something "off" about him. Aerys' paranoia and overall inappropriate behavior-- even before he was as mad as he was -- drove a rift between himself and Tywin, so I think it was Aerys himself moreso than external factors that informed Aerys' behavior.

And insofar as prophecy is concerned... I doubt that pressure to fulfill prophecy drove Aerys mad. I think it may be possible that, like Daeron and Aerion before him, Aerys suffered from prophetic dreams. It's possible that the closer the Others came to invasion, the more intense and frequent the dreams became which is why he became progressively worse, and things falling apart in his life -- unhappy marriage, Summerhall, Duskendale, frequent miscarriages and stillbirths -- only fuelled the flames. 

However, ultimately I believe that Aerys was simply a broken, evil man who was allowed far too much power for everyone's good. There doesn't need to be any grand conspiracy or mystery or magical explanation -- though given insight from D&E, there is a small chance that magic did play a role. I think it would be very difficult to prove that Aerys was operating from a rational standpoint for much of the last few years of his life. 

[bent branch]

3 hours ago, Brian Rioghbhardan said:

I disagree, Aerys had pretty good reason not to assume that he'd fullfilled the prophesy simply by siring Rhaegar. Like I said when Aery's knocked up Rhaella with Rhaegar, based on Aemon and the events that took place at Summerhall there seemed be a very strong belief amongst the Targs that Rhaegar was child who fulfilled the prophesy. I mean I highly doubt that it's coincidence that on the same night Rhaegar was born, King Aegon V decided to invite a child of the forest over to his summer palace to help perform some mysterious sorcery ritual with dragon eggs that turned out to be so powerful that it managed to turn the whole palace and most of the Targ family line into ash. I'm pretty sure they did it because they thought they had their promised prince and that this meant they could now successfully perform their fire ritual to bring back their dragons. So afterwards when almost everyone turned up dead and no dragons were awaken that was likely pretty strong sign to aerys and others that Rhaegar wasn't TPTWP.  To add to this in the Aery's chapter in The World of Ice and Fire we actually have him declaring that "The God's Will not Suffer A Bastard to sit the Iron Throne." after Rhaella had undergone a series of Miscarriages and Rhaegar was still currently their ownly their child. This along with his increasing suspicions and poor treatment of aegon of the years has lead some to believe Rhaegar was not Aerys son. I'm not sure I buy that, but do think it's possible that in his paranoia he began to question if Rhaegar was his son given the fact the ritual they  performed the night he was turned into a total shit show. That and there really isn't any other explanation for why most of his very long chapter in A world of Ice and fire revolves around him being obsessed with having more kids. 

 

But yeah I agree though it's specifically mentioned that he called in Lord Stark to discuss building a second wall farther North, nothing came of it. Though I'd argue that if it turns out that both the prophesy and childen of the forest had expressed the idea that the no army or wall could stop white walkers andthat mankinds only hope against stopping them was to insure both the birth of TPTWP and return of dragons. Then building up building up the Night's watch or wall might seem like a fools errand. And realistically I think we can all expect some shit to go down in future books which proof this to be the case as I highly doubt the wall is going to keep standing for long and not because of poor maintenance. 

As to your whole theory slow poisoning being the true cause of his descent to madness. I can actually get behind that. Their's a lot of historians that have put forth a similar theory in regards to England's Mad King George having been driven mad as  result of lead poisoning. Since like Aerys early accounts of his life and reign showed him to be much different person. In fact this theory is actually a discarded variation of bigger theory I've had Aery's knowingly or perhaps unknowinly being Azor Ahai and his children being the light bringers that will defeat the WW. In that I actually went with Aery's being mad but I too decided that given earlier descriptions of him it wasn't Targ Madness but the result of an outside unnatural source. Only I suggested that some sort of mystical force infected his mind and began to influence his thoughts/actions as an unintended consequence of the ritual performed at Summerhall. But I think the whole Poisoning thing might be a better fit given the Mad King George. It also would make a lot of sense if it was done by the Maester if they were aware that the last 3 Targ kings had been digging through prophesies and peforming rituals to try to bring back dragons after they'd worked so hard to get rid of them. And if the Maester knew that Aery's and Rhaella were prophesized to give birth of TPTWP and that the TPTWP would return dragons to the world then that would give them pretty strong motivation to also poison Rhaella's children thus explaining all her childbirth issues. 

 

Rioghbhardan 

Funny, I read that part exactly opposite. I know it was Rickard Stark that approached Aerys not the other way around because Eddard mentions something about his father's hopes for the Wall, etc.

New Topic:

I am convinced that Aerys was not mad until after Duskendale. The rumors before that were merely political propaganda being spread by the maesters.

[Rippounet]

9 hours ago, Brian Rioghbhardan said:

Like I said when Aery's knocked up Rhaella with Rhaegar, based on Aemon and the events that took place at Summerhall there seemed be a very strong belief amongst the Targs that Rhaegar was child who fulfilled the prophesy.

I'm not sure how strong that belief was though, or that Aerys was that much into prophecy himself.

More importantly:

9 hours ago, Brian Rioghbhardan said:

I mean I highly doubt that it's coincidence that on the same night Rhaegar was born, King Aegon V decided to invite a child of the forest over to his summer palace to help perform some mysterious sorcery ritual with dragon eggs that turned out to be so powerful that it managed to turn the whole palace and most of the Targ family line into ash. I'm pretty sure they did it because they thought they had their promised prince and that this meant they could now successfully perform their fire ritual to bring back their dragons.

But I always understood that the ritual started before Rhaegar's birth... I thought Rhaella gave birth because of the distress caused by the fire... Did I get this wrong?

9 hours ago, Brian Rioghbhardan said:

To add to this in the Aery's chapter in The World of Ice and Fire we actually have him declaring that "The God's Will not Suffer A Bastard to sit the Iron Throne." after Rhaella had undergone a series of Miscarriages and Rhaegar was still currently their ownly their child. This along with his increasing suspicions and poor treatment of aegon of the years has lead some to believe Rhaegar was not Aerys son. I'm not sure I buy that, but do think it's possible that in his paranoia he began to question if Rhaegar was his son given the fact the ritual they  performed the night he was turned into a total shit show. That and there really isn't any other explanation for why most of his very long chapter in A world of Ice and fire revolves around him being obsessed with having more kids.

It is true that Aerys doubted Rhaegar was his son... I don't know whether that would have driven him to madness though... It seems more of a symptom of his madness than a cause to me.
However, you are right to point out that if Rhaegar was not Aerys's son, the prophecy would be harder to fullfill... Interesting point.

[Knight and Dayne]

The Mad King's madness is fascinating. I don't think there's much textual support for the idea that he was poisoned, but I think there is ample evidence that he was driven mad. The parade of dead children, the Duskendale fiasco, and Aerys' rivalry with Tywin look like targeted psychological assaults, exacerbating the run-of-the-mill delusions of grandeur, paranoia, and narcissism (that most rulers seem to have) into pyrophilia, fear of blades, and sadism the kingdom calls madness. I think it's very likely that Pycelle was involved with this process, perhaps in an early iteration of his Lannister toadyism. I think there's something fishy going on with Myr as well, but I'm not quite done putting those pieces together.

[Brian Rioghbhardan]

16 hours ago, Rippounet said:

I'm not sure how strong that belief was though, or that Aerys was that much into prophecy himself.

Yeah I don't believe there's any text which ever states Aerys personal stance on the prophesies that Aegon and Aerys father clearly believed. But I think there are several things that do suggest it. His willingness to go along with the marriage to his sister is one of these, his father and all his uncles and aunts were betrothed to other people by their father the king, but ultimately chose to break all these engagements and marry who they wanted. Given that when Aerys became king immediately made drastic changes to court, that were actually very positive, because he disliked the old stuffy way his father and grandsire did things would suggest he wasn't the sort to mindlessly follow them. Also I'd suggest reading the chapter on him in a World of ice and fire (you can find a free pdf online). Because it's REALLY difficult to explain his obsession with having more kids and the powerful effect it had on his psyche when he already had secured an heir in rhaegar.

16 hours ago, Rippounet said:

But I always understood that the ritual started before Rhaegar's birth... I thought Rhaella gave birth because of the distress caused by the fire... Did I get this wrong?

So this is what we know :

"The king summoned many of those closest to him to Summerhall, his favorite castle, there to celerate the impending birth of his first great grandchild."

So yes he summoned them there before Rhaegar was born, but I assume it was because they expected him to be born that night. So it is an assumption on my part that the ritual didn't occur until after Rhaegar was born. But like I said it seems like a kind of big coincidence that they'd choose to randomly hold this really strange and ultimately deadly ritual on this night a night intended a celebration for Rhaegar. Unless the ceremony was tied to his birth somehow. And as far as my suspicions that Aery's own work involving wild fire were linked to this ritual I take this quote about the ritual where Wild Fire is mentioned as being a part of it. 

""The blood of dragons gathered in one..seven eggs, to honor the seven gods...Pyromancers...Wild Fire"

16 hours ago, Rippounet said:

It is true that Aerys doubted Rhaegar was his son... I don't know whether that would have driven him to madness though... It seems more of a symptom of his madness than a cause to me.
However, you are right to point out that if Rhaegar was not Aerys's son, the prophecy would be harder to fullfill... Interesting point.

Yeah and I'm not saying he wasn't his son, I just think that perhaps one of the leading reasons that motivated Aerys to questioning him as his son is that he took the failure of the ritual at the tragedy of summerhall as evidence that Rhaegar was not TPTWP. I'd also like to point out that if the Maesters were indeed responsible for all the miscarriages, stillbirths and mysterious early deaths of Aery's other children and the only reason Viserys escaped this same fate is because Aerys sent his wife to dragonstone. Then one might wonder why they would take these measures against all these measures to wiping out his younger children but leave Rhaegar who was the actual heir alone? I think it's because their motivation behind killing aerys children was not to leave him with out an heir but to prevent a prophesy from coming true that would return dragons to the world. And that they too saw the failure to reawaken dragons the night rhaegar was born at summerhall as proof that Rhaegar was not TPTWP and thus so no reason to get rid of him and instead aimed at stopping aerys from having any more kids that might fulfill the prophesy. And like I said if you read his chapter in A world of Ice and fire they're not very subtle about linking his increase in erratic paranoid behavior directly to his wife's stillbirths/miscarriages and actually have him returning back to his old, though still admittedly flawed, self when their was a successful birth.

 

Finally Another thing I wanted to throw in is something written by Septon Barth, a historian who Maesters are always trying to discredit but the books tend to suggest he actually knew his shit. The massive tower in Oldtown is believed to have been built by Valyeria thousands of years before Aegon the conquerer and many have questioned what brought them to westeros. "Septon Barth's claim that the Valyrians came to Westeros because their priests prophesised that the Doof of man would come out of the land beyond the narrow sea." It would be interesting if this prophesy turned out to be part of the mysterious Valayrian prophesy likely discovered by King Aerys I that speaks of TPTWP and dragons returning.  

[Brian Rioghbhardan]

s

[Brian Rioghbhardan]

On 5/4/2016 at 10:23 PM, aryagonnakill#2 said:

 

I think it is very possible that he was being poisoned.  The maesters seem to have an agenda, and it is very fishy to me that as soon as Aerys sent Rhaella to Dragonstone to give birth the pregnancy actually worked, and then the same thing happened with Danaerys.

 

Yeah I definitely think the maesters were behind all Aerys stillbirths and I actually like the idea that they were poisoning him too. I think it's pretty telling though that they would go to such lengths to kill all the children after his first first born son but not take similar measures against Rhaegar. I think this strongly suggests their reasons for poisoning the later children and perhaps Aerys is not because they were trying to remove the Targ's from power but because they were trying to prevent the TPTWP from being born as he/she was suppose to bring about the return of dragons and it's that which they were trying to stop. Likely the failure of the ritual held at summerhall the night Rhaegar was born proved to them that he was not TPTWP. 

 

 

On 5/3/2016 at 6:12 PM, Seams said:

My number one suspect for the source of the poison is Tywin Lannister. I suspect he also worked with the maesters to ensure that the babies were stillborn or that they died soon.

It would indeed be interesting if Tywin was involved in this Maester Conspiracy, especially if the Maesters intent was to wipe out any children who could turn out to be TPTWP. If this is the case then perhapse it was Maester Pycelle who talked King Aerys into opening the gates for Tywin who asked Tywin to kill both of Rhaegars children. 

 

23 hours ago, Alaynsa Starne said:

There doesn't need to be any grand conspiracy or mystery or magical explanation -- though given insight from D&E, there is a small chance that magic did play a role.

I think the biggest problem behind their having been a grand conspiracy or magical explanation is through what means or person  would knowledge of any of it be revealed to the reader? That's why I'm kind of liking the poison theory more then my previous theory that perhaps the seeds were planted by the sorcery at summerhall. Because a maester conspiracy could be revealed to us through Marwyn. But I'm curious to exactly what sort of magic that was revealed to us through Dunk and Eggs could be involved?

[StarkofWinterfell]

I favor the theory that it was lead poisoning that drove Aerys mad and led to the stillbirths.