(Spoilers) So - which events from the show will happen in the books and in what way?

[Lord Varys]

5 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

I think the issue then is that we see the sparrow-movement very differently.

Sure, that we do. However, the sparrows clearly a new movement and recruit themselves from the ranks of Riverlanders. They don't have a big power base in the Realm yet, and there is actually no hint that they would treat every king/queen the way they treated Cersei and Margaery.

They blame them for what happened to their people back home. For all the war and misery that struck the Riverlands.

5 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

So, lets say Varys place the wildfire, then igniting it himself blaming Cersei or giving the information directly to Qyburns spies...

Well, considering that I think Prince Aegon will be crowned King Aegon VI Targaryen in the Great Sept of Baelor I very much doubt that this will happen.

5 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

When it comes to Mace, I see him as unwilling to risk the Tyrell name. He will make some sounds about it, but in the end conform to the idea of the trial, especially if he gets "guarantees" Margarery will win. He will also want the trial so he can remove Cersei. At this point the Tyrells don´t really need to Lannisters anyway. But guarantees tend to be broken easily (Ned) and Varys and the dornish will do his utmost to screw them all over. In fact, I think he will be so certain of the outcome that he will leave Kings landing to fight Aegon, die and Margarery will be killed (a postponed trial held with Aegon in the city maybe?)

You are completely at odds with Mace as per the Epilogue. He makes it clear that he'll only bestir himself to deal with Aegon after the name and reputation of his daughter is cleared. Not before. So either he sticks around and clears Margaery's name via the trial, ensuring that this happens, or he does the very same thing via Tommen. If Margaery would be convicted he wouldn't march against Aegon at all but use his troops to kill all the sparrows along with the High Septon. He still has the power to do that.

Mace loves his daughter. If Margaery should die I don't see him caring about Aegon or any other threats. He'll avenge her. And then join Aegon himself to get an ally to deal with Ironborn situation.

[Morgana Lannister]

Very interesting thread; I have to admit this is now so long I would have to take a day or longer to read it all, so I admit I haven't read it all.  My apologies of a lot of what I say has been said before.

Okay, Is Mel that old?  Yes or even more so lol.  I think we will learn more about her past in the books.  The idea that she might have been a slave prostitute once is plausible to me.  She uses seduction well... not saying everyone who does has been in that profession lol but kind of irrelevant point I think...  Will she resurrect Jon???  Not sure, but warging will be what keeps him alive for a time IMHO as already stated here.  Whether it is her intervention or Jon is merely in what we today call a coma hard to say.  However, I believe what she said to Davos in the show re they will need her at the end (even if they despise her) will come true.  However, I am convinced the plot device in this is that Jon has to die before he can forsake his vows and hence become something bigger, a big player in the big game, but George will take that slowly I think...

Shireen's death by fire - confirmed by George.  Now, how soon of if even in TWOW, unsure...  this ties up with how Stannis dies I guess.  To me, Boltons - v- Stannis will "conveniently" for the likes of Jon and Tyrion/Sansa if they ever meet again and stay together lol, cancel each other out.  Stannis will defeat the Boltons for sure.  George talked about the two main battles in TWOW, this being one of them.  Jon, I suspect, will be boringly "dead" for most of the book warging if not longer.  (Sorry I find the warging tedious but hey, we all have our preferences lol).

Ramsay killing a brother is very hinted at in the books, with Domeric, but Roose knows it, although (shamely in MHO) he did nothing and he even recompensed Ramsay with legitimization lol.  I think it will come to pass but probably only after Roose has been killed by Northerners or Stannis in battle or some such...  Now, an afterthought, Walder Frey is way too cowardly to avenge his daughter (in the event it goes like in the show) but would other Freys think alike... and we "conveniently" have a fierce Lannister woman married to a Frey... (Genna Lannister-Frey) and Roslin is a Frey too married to a Tully.  This is probably all fan fic but hey, food for thought... OMG and hostages in Casterly, surely under Genna's supervision...  I don't thing the "Frey pie" will happen in the books.  In fact, although like 1% of it happening I would love this plot lol (I mean Genna/Roslin).  Whatever the weather I don't think Ramsay is going to get Valhalla, he will be murdered by his enemies in cold blood like he deserves, not in the "glory" of battle.  Both ladies are mothers with all the hormones that that imply and the killing of Fat Walda and her son... if it happens in the books, my guess is that they go for him.  Not necessarily dogs, but poison or something??? To me this would be satisfying because I believe George is clear in that not everyone from a house is bad or good.  To see Lannister and Frey and maybe Stark collaborate I think is what the ending will be (albeit with more of an epic battle lol).

As for Shireen, lol cried at the scene although it was no suprise.  I wonder if it may be Davos who stubs Stannis for that instead of Brienne.  No way it will be Brienne in the books.  Brienne is on a huge cliffhanger with her beloved and LSH, okay could happen later but I think Brienne''s path is to see what Jaime told her "too many oaths; hard to keep them all..."  She may go north but not yet "me thinks."  Stannis death to me; either in battle with honour or kill because of Shireen.  It could be even more poignant if he hadn't allowed Mel to do it but other people think he did  and take the law into their own hands...

Rickon and Shaggydog have to die.  Rickon to me is just a plot device.  We all care about our younger siblings, nephews, nieces et al and I think that his true plot value.  George has invested like zero time with him even compared with minor characters like say... Septa Lemore, Myranda Royce etc.  In my mind he is just making up numbers in the Stark household.  We know very little of him and most of it "off screen."  Could be me but if the author is not that invested enough in a character to get the readers to know the character, neither am I.  Okay probably being callous here but I have zero investment on him as a character and he is clearly in the way to more major characters getting Winterfell.

I don't hate him and I can see the value, for Sansa, Jon, et al for him to be killed and them suffering.  I cannot see the value on him being Lord of Winterfell or King in the North unless George gives us about at least 10 chapters with his POV!  Sorry that I find this character flat...

Sad as it was in the show, I liked the fact he was out of the way to be honest.  Never bonded with him, even Robin Arryn, horrid as he can be I am more invested on.  He was all "off screen"  in books as well and I never bonded beyond imagining what it would be like to see my little brother die, say... (plot device in my humble mind).

Bran- one spoiler I believe is that he will cause the Wall's fall for not fault of his own but will regain strength and will survive; not in a tree but as something very Old Gods etc.  In fact, I expect him writing the story in 300 hundred years time, when all our fabs and hated ones are dead....  Okay, I am sure the later will never happen, i.e. him writing the story in the future but it could be fun.

 

 

 

[JonSnowed]

I am not sure how I missed this thread but I would say a lot of what happened in season 6 and some stuff from season 5 is coming from Winds, D&D know the fates of all the main characters and they know the ending, nobody can realistically deny that, they also know some major events that GRRM has planned.  Some of the secondary characters will be different though. Anyway here are the major beats I am convinced are coming from the next book:

Stuff from the North.

Shireen is burning - They have confirmed this, many had guessed it but it will be different in the books, I suspect more Mel and Selyse after hearing of Stannis defeat and it may even revive Jon.

Stannis  defeat - Some people are still in denial but it's clearly coming and in the early part of Winds I suspect.

Starks retaking Winterfell - Yep this is a certainty.

Jon - He's going to be revived by Mel, perhaps through the burning of Shireen, he may spend some time in Ghost but he's coming back 100% and he will be King in the North, most likely through Rob's will after retaking Winterfell.  It's pretty clear now too that GRRM had Jon stabbed so he can leave the Nights Watch and become KitN.

The Vale - coming North for sure. I feel the show just sped this up by replacing Sansa and Jeyne Poole as the whole Alayne arc was extremely boring and wouldn't have made good TV.

Rickon - He's dying some how but not like in the show, he has too in order for Jon to become KitN, I do wonder how it goes down though.

Boltons - I would not be surprised if Ramsay kills Roose, but Ramsay is the end boss for retaking Winterfell for sure.

 

South

Here I expect broad beats to be the same but more difference in the details.

Tommen is definitely dying, perhaps by Sandsnake in the books but suicide is possible too.

Cersei I believe will sit on the iron throne in Winds but she will do so needing to deal with the threat from Aegon.

I do not believe there will be a trial by combat but Cersei will find some way to deal with the Tyrells and Sparrows, this could well be different from the show.

 

Dorne

Will likely be completely different but Mycella will die and I wouldn't totally rule out Doran dying or being killed by Arianne/Sand snakes.

 

Essos

I think the Arya plot will be pretty true to the books, Dany too more or less although she will miss the battle for Meereen. I feel Barriston was killed so the show could introduce Tyrion to Mereen earlier, he may die in the battle though but he may still survive.  Dany story with the Dothraki is likely coming from Winds.  I feel it's clear Dany get's iron born ships in both mediums but it's Victorians in the books and Yara's in the show.  I suspect they have done this as they sped up Stannis defeat (which Yara/Theon will POV in the books) so they switched them with Vic in the show to put us in the same place.

 

Other stuff

Sandor is coming back for sure but GRRM hasn't worked out the detail yet.

Jamie/Brienne is all show made up stuff as they cut Lady Stoneheart.

Hodor is dying in Winds, so is the three eyed Raven and Jojen but the context will likely be different.